Future watch: Braves lead locals in young talent (UPDATE: Heyward is No. 1 prospect)
Jason Heyward may win the right field job in spring training.
(UPDATE: Jason Heyward has been named the No. 1 prospect by Scouts Inc. and the Braves have five players listed in the top 85. See below.)
A little clarification this morning.
Last week, I suggested that the Braves needed to sign free agent outfielder Johnny Damon to fill their need for a leadoff batter. There has been a void at the top of their order since Rafael Furcal left town. That void has coincided with the Braves’ failure to make the playoffs. Go figure. For the record, Damon is still available and Frank Wren is still not taking my advice. Maybe I should send a nice email? Flowers?
Anyway, back to the clarification: At no point was it my suggestion that the Braves’ general future is doomed without Damon. In fact, there is some slight confirmation this week that their future is pretty bright.
Led by outfielder Jason Heyward, the Braves’ farm system ranks fifth in baseball in organizational talent, according to Scouts Inc.’s Keith Law (requires ESPN Insider subscription).
Loading ...The top 100 prospects is scheduled to be posted sometime Thursday and I’ll try to update this blog at that time. (UPDATE: See below.)
But in Law’s team rankings, the Braves ranked behind only Texas, Boston, Tampa Bay and Cleveland. Among teams in the National League East, the Braves ranked ahead of Florida (12), New York Mets (15), Washington (23), Philadelphia (24).
Law on the Braves:
Having Jason Heyward helps, but they have a troika of Latin American arms about to march up the system that would make a heck of a 2-3-4 behind Tommy Hanson starting in 2013 or so. They would have been higher except for a brutal draft in 2009.
Here’s a link to that 2009 draft if you’ve got a lot of time on your hand.
The rankings got me thinking. Of Atlanta’s four pro sports teams, who is best set up for the future? Right now, I’d have to say the Braves. The Falcons appear to be headed in that direction, but they’re still in transition and there are too many questions on the offensive line and on the defensive side of the ball. The Hawks are not quite as set up for the future as you might think. The Thrashers? A few nice pieces, but only a few.
I quickly ran down the rosters of the four teams and highlighted some young names. But I’ve linked all four rosters if you want to do some research. However, the rosters do not include everybody in the minor-league systems of the Braves and Thrashers. I’ve also got a poll up, but I want to read your comments.
The key here is to try to focus on players who are five years or less into their careers, and therefore potentially here for the long haul.
♦ BRAVES: Brian McCann has played only four-plus seasons. Heyward could make the team out of spring training. Jordan Schafer may not be far behind. Tommy Hanson will be at or near the top of the rotation a while. Others to feel good about include Yunel Escobar, Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado. (Late add: thanks to “AthensMatt” for pointing out that I left out first baseman-of-the-future, Freddie Freeman.)
♦ FALCONS: They have their quarterback in Matt Ryan. Running back Michael Turner is six years into his career, the danger zone for an NFL running back, but he was a backup for the first four. Probable solid pieces for years: Roddy White, Jonathan Babineaux, Thomas DeCoud, Curtis Lofton, Harry Douglas. Defensive tackle Peria Jerry and safety William Moore, the team’s first two picks in 2o09, missed most of their rookie seasons with injuries. Tackle Sam Baker hasn’t been healthy in two seasons.
♦ HAWKS: Josh Smith and Al Horford will be staples for a long time. But after that? We don’t know yet about Jeff Teague. Marvin Williams: some good, some bad. Mike Bibby is on the downside of his career. Joe Johnson is nine years in and an unrestricted free agent this summer.
♦ THRASHERS: Kari Lehtonen was supposed to be the franchise goalie. But he has struggled with consistency and healthy. Ondrej Pavelec: still a bit unknown. Zach Bogosian, Tobias Enstrom and Evander Kane are solid young pieces. But Bryan Little seems to have fallen off a cliff and Boris Valabik is still struggling with his confidence (and now health). And yes, Ilya Kovalchuk could be gone before lunch.
So there’s your quick recap. Which team do you think is best positioned for the future?
♦
UPDATE: Scouts Inc. listed five Braves in its list of top 100 prospects. Here they are:
♦ 1. JASON HEYWARD, OF: Heyward’s ascent to the top of these rankings was swift and unimpeded, and his path to the majors appears to be much the same, as he’ll have a good chance to win the every-day right-field job this spring. Heyward will be a middle-of-the-order bat with power and patience while playing above-average defense in right with a plus arm. He has an advanced approach at the plate, something that was already in place when he was a 17-year-old high school senior, and strong, quick wrists that let him commit later to pitches while still driving the ball to all fields. He gets good leverage in his swing and has plenty of loft to eventually produce 30-plus homers a year, and so far hasn’t shown any tendency to expand the zone because he’s trying too hard to hit for power. In the field, he has outgrown center but moves extremely well in right with good reads off the bat. And you can see from all of the above that he has a high baseball IQ, with good feel and/or instincts in every area of the game, especially for someone his age. He murdered Double-A pitching at age 19 in a 200-PA sample, and his career stat line reads .318/.391/.508, nearly all of which was compiled before he turned 20 in August. His swing isn’t perfect — he does bar his front arm very briefly — but he’s so strong and has such bat speed that the minor flaw has been irrelevant at every stop of his pro career. Everything else here points to stardom.
♦ 43. ARODYS VIZCAINO, RHP: Vizcaino was the key to the Javier Vazquez trade even though he has yet to appear above short-season ball, which speaks to his potential as a front-line starter. His fastball is already 91-93 mph, flashing a little above that, with good life, and he hides the ball well to help the pitch play up. His best off-speed pitch is a hammer curveball that is plus at times with good depth and a slight two-plane break. His feel for pitching is advanced for someone his age, and while his arm action is short and repeatable he can lose his slot and start to drift downward, something he’ll have to eliminate via instruction. He has a chance to move up the Atlanta system quickly and could catch up to fellow high-upside arms Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado soon.
♦ 63. JULIO TEHERAN, RHP: Teheran was one of my picks to jump on this list last offseason, and now he’s one of my picks to jump up into the top quarter of it. Teheran, the nephew of an Atlanta scout, barely pitched in 2008 after the team took a conservative approach with his sore shoulder. But in ‘09, he showed why teams are increasingly scouting the north coast of Colombia. He’s got a huge arm already despite his rail-thin frame (6-foot-2, 150 pounds), 91-96 mph on the fastball with an above-average changeup, and his curveball also has a chance to be above-average in time. He’s a good athlete, but his arm action isn’t pretty and he has to work to stay on top of the ball if that curveball is going to be a consistent weapon for him. He has good rhythm on the mound and pitches very aggressively — he hit almost as many batters as he walked in 2009, which usually isn’t an accident — but he has to avoid telegraphing his off-speed pitches. He still has a lot of room to fill out and could easily end up a No. 1 starter or, if he doesn’t get stronger or doesn’t develop the breaking ball, an upper-echelon closer.
♦ 67. FREDDIE FREEMAN, 1B: Freeman is yet another former two-way star on this list — if you’re a legitimate prospect as both a position player and a pitcher, you’re probably a pretty good athlete and offer more upside than the typical one-way prospect. At the plate, he sets up with a wide base and doesn’t stride or really transfer his weight through his swing. So while he has good rotation to hit for power, he’s mostly hands at this point and has traded some power for high contact rates. Unlike a lot of young left-handed hitters, he shows no appreciable platoon split, and while he’s not exactly patient, he’s not a hacker. Freeman is an above-average defender at first base, and there’s some reason to expect more growth as a hitter given his youth and frame. But I still see him as a guy who’ll hit for average with doubles power, but not the high OBP or home run totals that would make him a star at first base.
♦ 85. RANDALL DELGAGO, RHP: Delgado pitched in the shadow of Julio Teheran this year, and I’d bet you could find a few scouts who rated him over Teheran even though I have Delgado second. Delgado is 6-foot-3 and has already put on a good 25 pounds since signing, with improvement in his stuff to match. His fastball is just above average and will touch 94-95, with a changeup that has improved to above-average and a chance for the curveball to be the same. He’s still looking for a consistent arm action, which is part of why he’s behind Teheran, but his upside isn’t much lower than his teammate’s. It’s to the Braves’ credit that they found two top-flight pitching prospects from outside the traditional Latin American talent markets, getting Teheran from Colombia and Delgado from Panama.
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173 comments Add your comment
bvillebaron
January 28th, 2010
4:43 pm
uggaaccountant:
Putting winning teams on the field is not all about spending money. The Phillies arent’ the perennially strong team that they are now simply or primarily because they spent a lot of money. The Phillies are the cream of the crop now because they followed the same blueprint that the Braves used to win those 14 straight divisional championships: build a strong nucleus via emphasis on the farm system and when there is enough of that nucleus and it has matured enough, then spend money for a couple of key pieces which is what they did by adding Lee last year and Halladay this year. The reason for the Braves being where they are now is that when the core players responsible for that 14 year run got older and a rebuilding was necessary, the Braves tried to keep the run going and thereby delayed the necessary rebuilding by trading away much of that farm system to try to find “band aids” which weren’t going to get the team where it hoped to go (the prime example being the Texeira fiasco which involved trading 4 premium prospects, two of whom are now on their way to stardom for a one year merecenary). If you think that simply spending more money while ignoring your farm system is the key to success, take a look at the New York Mess (I mean Mets). Sure the Mets had injuries to Reyes, Beltran, Delgado in particular last year. But outside of Beltran, Reyes and Wright, tell me who in their line up scares anyone. Aside from Santana and K-Rod, tell me what pitchers on their roster you would take over those currently on the Braves.
Watch the game
January 28th, 2010
4:46 pm
Schultzie,
I love your columns, think you are a great writer, but you are off base on the Thrashers. Kovy could be gone, in fact he probably is, but I take issue with your other comments. Bogosian is future captain matierial and Kane is a 30-plus goal scorer. Remember, they are 19 and 18 respectively. Also, Boris Valabik is having a career year, he is a plus player now and has set career highs in shots on goal, meaning he is having no issues whatsoever in confidence.
Also, look into prospects Jeremy Morin and Chris Carrozzi of the OHL, both of whom the Thrashers own the rights to. Morin was on the USA Worl Junior Championship team and was 2nd in the league in goals, Carrozzi was leading in Goals Against Average and shutouts.
buzz
January 28th, 2010
5:01 pm
I hate to argue but I am sick and tired of hearing how the Thrashers are young and up and coming. The franchise is a joke and the promises are empty.
Statistician
January 28th, 2010
5:04 pm
“There has been a void at the top of their order since Rafael Furcal left town. That void has coincided with the Braves’ failure to make the playoffs. Go figure. ”
Dear Mr. Schultz,
Do you have any idea what the difference bewteen causation and correlation is?
ugaaccountant
January 28th, 2010
5:28 pm
bvillebaron – way to ignore the first sentence of my post. I am fully aware of how to build a winning baseball club. The current Braves ownership has played accounting shell games to mislead us into thinking they spent well over the $85 million a year payroll committment they have with MLB. After seeing what they are actually doing is offseting major insurance reimbusements, it shows that they’ve actually only been paying maybe 90M a year.
90M Sounds like a lot but it is actually in the middle tier of teams, around 10th to 15th in spending. Only 8 teams make the playoffs so we have to get not just average results out of our minor leagues but exceptional results. We actually are pretty much getting that from the minors, but getting unlucky within our division by having a juggernaught in the Phillies.
Our long term problem is, we already do things exactly right for a mid-payroll club since the Tex deal. We do have a good mix of veterans and youngsters and a long term outlook in our farm system. We have veteran leaders and cut ties with arbitration eligible players when their pay gets higher than equivalent free agents. We really cannot expect a better mix of payroll than we do right now. We invest heavily in starting pitching and one or two key hitters, rely heavily on cheap pre-arbitration players to fill other key roles, and plug holes with cheap veterans. This is the textbook for how to compete with a modest payroll.
Problem is, doing everything right, we still have to trust to luck to actually make the playoffs. Baseball has an extremely long regular season that really does sort out the top 8 pretty well. The last several years we’ve actually been right on the mark for our predicted finish based on talent level and injury status.
I’d like to look at that top 5 minor league system and assume that it’s going to lead to some big payoff down the line. However, look at our roster. About the time Heyward and Freeman start really contributing, Chipper is retiring and you think great we’ll have some payroll free up. However we’ll have to replace his spot in the lineup and fund a major pay increase for Yunel. Then the next year what do we do with Prado? We have no prospects in our system that have a scouting report anywhere near the production of those three, so we either suck it up and pay them or regress.
In the pitching staff, as soon as we start freeing up money from Lowe/Hudson/Kawakami, it appears that JJJ and Hanson might be commanding some of the highest per season salaries in the game. Their stats to date are that dang good.
So, unless Liberty has a change of heart about the team, or sells to an ownership group more willing to spend, I don’t have high hopes that we actually will be able to meet the salary demands of all of our elite talent. And if we let some of that elite talent go, we’re back to middle of the pack again.
I’m not asking us to go out and buy an expensive free agent at every position on the field. I’m just arguing for us to keep the talent we’ve got in the organization. This offseason was very illustrative because it showed that everywhere there was a spending decision, we went with the cheaper option.
Brendan
January 29th, 2010
12:58 am
One (1) theft of a win in Philly, and suddenly the Thrashers are in sixth place. But all’s well with the franchise? Don Waddell really is a genius, after all? Or, is this just an anomaly of a year, where a team with 88 or 89-points will finish 8th? The 13th place team might finish with 87-points. That’s unusual. But it might just be the case.
Think about it. “Miss the playoffs by one (1) point, but be inside the lottery draft, too?” Shrugs. Could be.
buzz, I know the promises are empty, but if there really were a GM change, then maybe real changes would be coming? For it would mean that ownership now wants/demands some accountability. Atlanta’s prospects aren’t garbage. Truthfully, I’m afraid some of them could wind up dealt at the deadline, just to attack this 8th spot in the East.
Is getting the 8th spot in the playoff field worth losing control of the rights of your precious prospects for the future? If you said yes, that’s not the correct answer. No team becomes successful by shipping away its top prospects. Three years from now, some of Atlanta’s picks from 2006-09 will be ready to go. Ya know, they way other teams do it.
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January 29th, 2010
5:47 am
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Ex-Braves Fan
January 29th, 2010
8:42 am
Enjoy the young Braves as quickly as you can because in a few short years they will all leave for the big bucks from other teams because the crummy Braves will not be able to afford them. Welcome to becoming the Oakland A’s of the NL Braves fans. Training young players for the higher paying teams. Heyward will be a Yankee five years after he hits the majors because the Braves will trade him before he becomes a free agent. McCann is next in a couple of years when his current contract runs out.
dpelfrey
January 29th, 2010
10:18 am
Nate, January 28th, 2010,8:51 am
“Personally, I like (Minor). I think he’ll make a solid back-end rotation guy.”
Guys who you think will top out at back-end rotation are not who you take with the #7 pick of the draft.
“…I didn’t see a lot of guys taken behind (Minor) that would provide as much value.”
Well, that’s only if you don’t count Jacob Turner, Tyler Matzek, Shelby Miller, Aaron Crow, Alex White, Kyle Gibson, etc…
In response to your comments, it’s easy to challenge a point when you take it out of context. And it depends on your definition of value. I said right before that he wasn’t a typical top 10 pick. But I still like the pick because the Braves took what appears to be a sure-bet back-end rotation guy instead of a risky potential top-of-rotation guy. To me that’s value. It’s all about risk-reward with draft picks anyway. Plus he can help sooner than later since he was drafted out of college, so I don’t buy the comparison with Matzek, Turner or Miller. Those guys will be in the minors for 4-5 years, whereas Minor could be at Atlanta late this year or next year, again…value. I can see your beef about White and Crow, Minor definitely didn’t outperform them in college. But Minor also has an advantage over those guys in that he’s a lefty.
My overall point was that the Braves have a lot of high-upside top-of-rotation talent at various levels throughout their system, so I don’t think it was a bad thing to overdraft a player that doesn’t project as a potential superstar. They took a guy that they obviously felt with some conviction would help the big club within the next few years. They took the low risk, moderate reward approach this year. I’m fine with that, particularly with how unpredictable draft picks are.
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January 29th, 2010
10:40 am
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Robert
January 29th, 2010
1:59 pm
The Braves are CLEARLY the Atlanta franchise best set up for future success.
This has NOTHING to do with their roster or their farm system.
It has to do with the fact that their one serious flaw has announced that he will be removing himself from the dugout after the 2010 season
That one little bit of addition by subtraction will add at LEAST 10 games to the Braves’ win totals starting in 2011
Add to that all the ruinous philosophy that young Braves players will no longer be exposed to, and you’re talking championships in the Braves’ future not long after the donkey exits the dugout
Robert
January 29th, 2010
2:03 pm
“Do you have any idea what the difference bewteen causation and correlation is?”
Think is terms of the Braves 14 year playoff run.
There was a correlation between it and Bobby Cox’s tenure as manager. But Cox’s tenure as manager was not the cause of the run
bvillebaron
January 29th, 2010
2:12 pm
ugga:
I understand your points, but, with the possible exception of Vazquez, tell me what player the Braves simply “dumped” for salary reasons this offseasons? If you or others are concerned that when the promising young players are eligible to become free agents the Braves won’t be able to afford them because of the salary constraints imposed by Liberty, I suppose that’s a fair concern. However, your comment about wanting the Braves to keep the talent that they have suggests, at least to me, that it is a foregone conclusion that this is what will happen when that time comes. I don’t think that it’s fair to say that the Braves, even under Liberty, have not kept the talent that they have developed over the years.
Your apparent conclusion that this is what is going to happen with Hanson, Jurrjens, Escobar, etc. also seems to be based upon your comment about the Braves always taking the cheaper option this offseason. In that regard, you missed my primary point which is that, at this stage of the rebuilding process, it would be counterproductive to spend money on expensive free agents, especially to multiple year contracts. What I think Wren has wisely done this offseason is avoid doing that so that he can save and/or free up money under Liberty’s budget constrainst to (1) keep the young players they are developing and (2) be in a position to spend for a key free agent down the road when the nucleus matures while also giving the Braves a chance to compete this year for at least the wild card spot given the strength of their starting rotation and some of the players they already have on the team. Finally, it’s kind of hard to argue that the Braves never spend money for big name free agents after they signed Lowe to a 4 year $60M deal last offseason. I wonder how many other posters on this board who are ripping Wren for not spending money for big name free agents this offseason are the same people who are also ripping him for “wasting” $15M on Lowe for each of the next three years
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scottbravesfan
January 30th, 2010
12:14 am
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater,
You don’t really follow sports much, do you? The Braves were in the playoff hunt last season. They were right there with the Rockies for the wild card. Reading these comments make me wonder just how much people in Atlanta actually pay attention to sports. No wonder you have the reputation as the worst sports town in America.
Iceman
January 30th, 2010
11:52 am
Falcons – Caring owner, smart GM, tough yet welcoming coach, intelligent and hard working QB. Good days are ahead for sure.
Hawks – What’s made the Hawks great is they’ve stayed together. Woodson has pretty much the same guys he had his first day on the job, and keeping them together has been key. They let go of a few flops, and the addition of Crawford has helped a TON. Keep em together, work hard and great things can happen.
Thrashers – They drafted Ilya to be the face/future of the team, their star player. I can’t believe they’d be willing to let that “future” be only 8 seasons. If they let him go, they will have doomed themselves.
Braves – Still need an owner, Liberty Media doesn’t give a rip what they do.
BigGAdawg
January 30th, 2010
3:00 pm
It is good to see the wealth of upcoming talent the Braves have, however, the current owners should sell the team to Arthur Blank it they really care about it. You cannot run a major league team in any sport on the cheap and expect to win championships.
I voted for the Falcons as the best positioned because of their record this year. Two to three games were lost this season as a result of Jason Elam going off the rails. I know he has one of the greatest careers among all kickers but this year he stunk up the joint.
Then consider the key injuries that the Falcons had to deal with. If we get those games back that kicking lost we are in the playoffs even with the injuries.
That makes me more optomistic about the Falcons immediate future than the Braves.
As for the Hawks, they have certainly improved over recent years but they are going to have to add some key players to make it to the next level and do the the league what they have done to Boston. I wish them much success–it has been a long time coming.
ctfalconsfan
January 30th, 2010
8:36 pm
The Falcons will win the Super Bowl before any of the other ATL teams will win their sports’ title and that’s the bottom line.
- Go Birds!!
Skeezix
January 31st, 2010
9:28 am
We don’t need to waste $$ on Damon.
jc_dawgs
January 31st, 2010
11:58 am
I think I agree with Jeff on this one. Braves starting rotation is very very good. I hated losing Vasquez but we still have a great starting 5. Offensively…I would really like to see a starting outfield that includes Damon, Heyward and MCclouth . Otherwise…the offense still looks better than it did 1 year ago.
The injury bug to Jerry and Moore has hurt the Falcons where on Defense it showed. However….a strong end to the season shows that things are looking up. I also anticipate that Dimitroffs draft picks will begin to produce as time goes on.
As for the Hawks….right at this moment I actually think they are the closest to winning a championship. However….when and if we lose Joe Johnson at the end of this year….that will be a mutually very bad thing for both Johnson(in terms of ever winning an NBA championship) and the Hawks as well. Oh sure….monitarily…it would be beneficial for both but say goodbye to any hopes of a Championship if it happens.
Its too bad too because the Hawks are on the rise….but only with Joe Johnson playing for us. J Crawford is terrific but we need Johnson too. Hopefully the Hawks will sit down with him and really try to keep him here. Otw…..this current season may be our best one as the team starts to get worse in years to come without Johnson. And please, if we lose Johnson….the Hawks had better replace him with 2 very good NEW offensive players OR 1 NEW elite player. You would simply be taking a MAJOR step backwards if you dont. And we are getting so close to championship caliber right now
Jim
January 31st, 2010
3:20 pm
Braves have brightest future if they get rid of Wren, otherwise the Braves have the darkest future.
Ozzie
February 1st, 2010
2:01 pm
I think too many teams around the Braves became better this off season and if that turns out to be accurate the Braves will need to win out of the gate. If they cannot do that don’t expect any moves at the deadline apart from Wren raising the white flag and selling like he did in 08.
Wren has made a several good trades (less so on the FA front apart from Ross) in his short career as GM, no doubt, but his ability to read the market is questionable and his ready, fire, aim “decisiveness” is going to get him into trouble.
The latter may also be attributed to his new scouting org/leadership b/c they are feeding him the data to make his decisions. We are going to find out pretty quickly if that new brain trust knows what the heck they are doing.
Getting Damon would provide him a legitimate shot at a wild card. Passing on Damon and hoping all his other bets pan out will likely result in another near miss at the post season.
The Phillies could potentially beat up the Braves like it was 2008. If that happens this team will be in a hole quick and short of Heyward being a 30/100 guy they lack the fire power & small ball skills to grind their way back.
We have to realize this is another team with no focus. They are not a fast team, a power team, a small ball team, etc. and they have a manager who plays to the 3r homer. Not a great cocktail.
It’s a random collection of guys swarming around a strong rotation and a potentially good pen which has essentially two 40 somethings holding down the back end.
RE: SP Pitching – one starter goes down and the season could be in trouble b/c our fall back is Medlen or JOJO.
2010 will be a tight rope walking, rabbit foot clutching roller coaster with this club as its currently assembled.
Tight budgets, overly aggressive moves early in the off season and an disinterested corporate owner will put you in these kind of situations.
I look forward to the day Liberty waves bye-bye and some billionaire takes this team to the next level.
jojatek
March 13th, 2010
1:40 pm
Amazing to me that the Hawks finish third in this poll! They are, by far, best positioned for the future (that is, if the bizarre ownership doesn’t let this team drift apart). They are unbelievably young, athletic, and talented right now… add a veteran center and this team wins a championship. The Falcons are solid, but there will always be alot of question marks with that franchise. The Braves just don’t have the budget to position themselves for the future the way they did in 1990-1991. And the Thrashers?? Who cares…