Lowe upset about trade talk, Braves need to move him
Last season didn't go as well as expected for Derek Lowe, and now the Braves may move him.
Even before Derek Lowe complained about being singled out for his struggles last season – and I’ll get to that in a minute – it was safe to assume the Braves were not going to get much for him in a trade. Now that he admits he’s miffed about the trade talk and has made the need for a deal a little more desperate, I’m sure they won’t get much.
Trade him anyway. It would be significant addition by subtraction.
Lowe, a relative bust as the Braves’ $60 million free agent last season, told Mark Bowman of MLB.com: “I’m just waiting for it to happen. I don’t think it’s a matter of if anymore. It’s just a matter of when.”
And then came the money quote (pun absolutely intended): “It kind of [upsets] you in a way. It’s well-documented that I stunk the last two months of the season. But I look at it as, ‘Am I the only guy who has struggled for a couple of months in his first season after signing as a free agent?’”
Lowe also said he is bothered that nobody from the organization has contacted him directly about a trade possibility.
Dude. Seriously?
The Braves didn’t exactly cozy up to franchise icons Tom Glavine or John Smoltz on their way out the door. How much good will does Lowe think he has built up? Besides, I would think his $15 million salary last season would buy a little therapy.
He went 7-3 with a 3.44 ERA in his first 13 starts. He fizzled to 8-7 and 5.59 in the next 21. Remember, the Braves got better in the second half, not worse.
Lowe was given No. 1 starter money. But by the last two months of the season, he looked like the rotation’s sixth most important pitcher (partly because of economics). Ahead of him: Javier Vazquez, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami and Tim Hudson (back from surgery).
Before, the Braves wanted to dump him. Now, they almost have to dump him.
Vazquez would be easier to move because he’s entering his free agency year. But Vazquez (15-10, 2.87) is coming off a great season and Frank Wren wants Lowe’s contract off the books.
There are a lot of rumors flying around — not quite to the level of Georgia defensive coordinator rumors, but close. One has Lowe going to the Angels for outfielder Juan Rivera. Another has him headed to the Yankees for Nick Swisher.
Wren probably would jump at either. But I’m guessing he’d settle for a couple of prospects who don’t bruise so easily.
Just getting Lowe off the payroll would give Wren $10 million to $15 million to spend in free agency (or via trade). He needs that to strengthen the lineup.
It’s not like there’s zero upside to keeping Lowe. He has been a solid pitcher through his career. But the upside has significantly decreased.
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313 comments Add your comment
Noah
December 17th, 2009
11:24 am
Lackey stats:
IP last 5 years: 209, 217, 224, 163, 176.
Wins: 14, 13, 19, 12, 11
He is a good pitcher but not in the ace, top of the league catagory.
Derek Lowe last 5 years:
IP: 222, 218, 199, 211, 194
Wins: 12, 16, 12, 14, 15
Era’s are similar too, but age is a factor of course.
Rumors rumors...
December 17th, 2009
11:25 am
Oh I’m sorry, let’s all just agree with YOU and how you can sneak a FU in your last post. You absolutely are a Tech fan. I bet you posted on the UGA blogs for a year straight until Thanksgiving weekend rolled around…
So career stats matters more than what a guy is currently doing? Statboy please. The difference between you and I is I want a world series championship in Altlanta, you on the other hand are fine with another mediocre outfielder who can only contribute enough to get us close to sniffing the post season. While the Phils are out grabbing Halladay we are talking about eating some of Lowe’s contract and possibly grabbing Nick Swisher. I imagine you are fine with that.
STILL LAUGHING @ TEBOW
December 17th, 2009
11:27 am
WHEN THEY TRADE LOWE, THEY SHOULD ALSO GET A RADIO BOOTH AND A TV PLAY-BY-PLAY ANNOUNCER… LOWE FOR MELKY!
STILL LAUGHING @ TEBOW
December 17th, 2009
11:29 am
TECH ENJOY YOUR BI-DECADE SUCCESS….
Jborodawg
December 17th, 2009
11:32 am
OT but related, kinda:
Can someone splain to me not being able to afford Soriano (signed by Rays for $7.25 mil) but can afford Wagoner (signed for $7 mil)?
Space Monkey
December 17th, 2009
11:34 am
Poor baby. Sack up. You pitched like an old lady in some of the most crucial games of the year. Thanks for killing your market and backing the team into a corner. Hope you go somewhere else and get lit every game.
Brian
December 17th, 2009
11:35 am
Noah, you conveniently left out the ERA statistic you said were “close”. Lackey’s ERA the last five years is 3.49, Lowe’s is 3.79. Lowe pitched in the NL in pitchers’ parks, so if you adjust for league and park factors, the difference is even more significant. A 128 adjusted ERA for Lackey, and a 112 for Lowe (higher is better). Lackey’s strikeouts are much higher (7.6 per 9 to 5.8).
They have the same number of wins, but that doesn’t mean they’re equal. It means their teams won games in which they were the last pitcher to pitch before the team took their final lead. The IP difference is 55 innings, or 11 per year.
Noah
December 17th, 2009
11:36 am
I think the Braves thought Soriano would get a two year + deal and they dont like to sign long term in bullpen for obvious reasons and Wagner is one of the all time best and in their eyes is healthy and Soriano has had an injury history and apparently I’ve heard held out and had surgury that many with the Braves felt was not needed.
Amit Shah
December 17th, 2009
11:38 am
Hey guys…after hearing about D. Lowe’s side of the story…it kinda makes you think about who to trade. Think about this scenario. Lowe had his worse year as far as era goes and still won 15 games bc we scored runs in his games. Vasquez had his best year as far as strikeouts and era but we never scored runs for him. Even though lowe makes 3.5 mill more this year…do you guys think vasquez will be able to duplicate his best season ever? I def think lowe is going to have a better year and if we make it to the playoffs i would def have lowe than vasquez. vasquez will blow people away but you can never have the experience that lowe has had. he has pitched in the most important situations in his career and succeeded. and he would be a damn good mentor for hanson and jair. and vasquez will probably get us a better hitter via trade. were not going to get jason bay or matt holliday so we know we have to get our lineup together with with either lowe or vasquez…let me know what you guys think
Jeff Schultz
December 17th, 2009
11:38 am
GovClintonTyree — I hope you’re right on Bay. But back to your point, I wouldn’t assume this is going to be a dollar-for-dollar situation. What I mean is that just because Lowe makes $15 million doesn’t mean they’re going to replace all $15 million in salary, and it certainly doesn’t mean they’ll go higher. But like I said, it would be sweet if they did. .. The other thing you’re not considering is Braves have a lot of young players who will be up for arbitration/free agency in near future, which means their salaries will skyrocket. Locking into megabucks multi-year deal hampers them in future. Remember, this is a business.
Noah
December 17th, 2009
11:39 am
Brian: Your right but I still wouldn’t pay Lackey over $17 million a year for 5 years. Lowe is in the same ballpark numbers wise and everyone is saying no one would want him. Lowe’s remaining contract is almost half of Lackey. If a team will pay for Randy Wolfe they will pay for Derek Lowe.
Noah
December 17th, 2009
11:42 am
Jeff: Great point on the long term contracts and paying the young guys in the future. Don’t you think thats a big reason why the Red Sox went with Cameron for 2 years instead of Bay for 4 years. They probably feel the stats including defense aren’t that much less with Cameron and the pay is half and the years half.
Brian
December 17th, 2009
11:56 am
Actually, according to wins above replacement, Cameron has been better than Bay the last two years. Cameron has 8.4 WAR, Bay 6.4. Bay takes away a lot of his offensive value because he is an atrocious fielder. On defense, he gives back almost half the runs he produces on offense. Cameron has always been and continues to be an excellent defender.
The Red Sox show once again that they’re ahead of the curve. They paid 18 million for a better player than Bay, who wants and might get 80 million.
Joshhh...
December 17th, 2009
11:59 am
Trade DLowe to the Cubs straight up for Alfonso Soriano haha…I WISH
Brian
December 17th, 2009
12:04 pm
Joshhhh…are you saying that because you’re a Cubs fan? Lowe for Soriano would be an absolute steal for the Cubs and would cripple the Braves. Soriano’s got one of the worst contracts in baseball. Also, he’s a bad baseball player…below replacement level. That means you could call up a AAA guy and he would be better than Soriano was last year.
scrotus
December 17th, 2009
12:05 pm
-why not trade him for nothing, that’s what we’ve gotten for everyone else this year
–if you can’t afford big-name bats, get a COMPETENT hitting coach
–”Random” appears to be a bigger arsehole than the legendary Mr Lentz
All I'm Saying Is...
December 17th, 2009
12:07 pm
Apparently no one recalls the whiffs by Wren during last year’s off-season in signing free agent pitchers which is the reason why he went all-in for Derek Lowe. The Braves appeared to be a ‘backwater destination’ during last year’s off-season and no one wanted to sign to play here—remember the Furcal fiasco? Plus Wren had just taken over and had to establish himself as a legit player and we needed an inning eater given the injury situations with Smoltz, Glavine, and Hudson and the fact that even Hampton elected to sign elsewhere. So you can all continue to (legitimately) blather on and on about Lowe’s second half drop-off but last year’s off-season circumstances required that the Braves over pay to get his services.
At this point, Wren does need to call Lowe and ask him to lay low and shut up because every comment he makes means even less trade interest. Then they need to get Bobby to call him and advise him that BC has his back and to stay focused because no matter what Lowe is going to get his money.
No GM in their right mind is going to give the Braves anything (not even bats and baseballs) for Lowe as there is absolutely no need to do that deal.
Instead, Wren et. al. need to say publicly is ‘we have no interest in moving Derek and we expect him to have an outstanding 2010 season.’ Privately, they tell Lowe to have an outstanding 2010 and we’ll move him at the trade deadline which is when his stock will go up again if he repeats in the first half of 2010 what he did in the first half of 2009.
LET’S GO BRAVES!
GTgreg
December 17th, 2009
12:11 pm
I write the songs that make Tebow/Lowe cry, I write the songs, I write the songs.
sidslid
December 17th, 2009
12:12 pm
Lowe is always inconsistent. That is what you get. I will take his 15 ugly wins over Hudson’s 10 close losses and seven no decision losses. Lowe still gives you seven innings. Hudson is a six inning pitcher, and that kills the bullpen.
Noah
December 17th, 2009
12:25 pm
The Braves tried to get AJ Burnett for even more money, probably more years too. Guess what he was worse then Lowe was in a very down year.
Burnett: 13 wins on a team with tons of offense, 4.04 ERA.
GovClintonTyree
December 17th, 2009
12:30 pm
Jeff: Good point on the arbitration/increasing salaries for young players thing. I did consider that. However, it’ll be a few years. Chipper and his $13m comes off the books in three years. McCann and McLouth’s increases are locked in and fairly reasonable…Prado, Escobar, Jurrjens and Hanson’s big bumps will come due in that three year range, when we get some flexibility from Chipper retiring…teams (well, other than the Bankees) always have to manage with one eye toward the present and one on the future. Doesn’t mean you don’t do what you have to do now.
Brian
December 17th, 2009
12:34 pm
Noah, I’m gonna have to disagree with you again. Burnett was significantly better than Lowe in every important category this year: ERA, huge difference in adjusted ERA, enormous difference in strikeouts.
The only thing Lowe has more of is wins, and that’s about the last thing you should use to evaluate a pitcher. Again, all that means is that Lowe had more instances in which his team won a game in which he was the last pitcher to pitch before his team took their final lead.
Bryan
December 17th, 2009
12:39 pm
I hear everyone saying ‘O we don’t care what Lowe thinks, go cry in another city’, but this was never Derek Lowe’s fault, none of it. Frank Wren missed out on the top free agents last off-season, Frank Wren signed Derek Lowe, Frank Wren shunned two Atlanta icons, and now he is shunning another hard-working, respectable Braves pitchers. Should Lowe be traded? Probably. Should it be done without even the courtesy of a phone call from the guy that recruited him? No.
Ted
December 17th, 2009
12:40 pm
Swisher is so over rated, he hit .249 w/126 k’s last yr hiS hr’s were the product of new Yankee Stadium. In Atl he’s a bust.
Keep Lowe for the time being…he’s NOT a club house cancer, we might need him in case of injury, he might actually have a great year and as the trade DL approaches we will be able to get good prospects from him and we won’t have to eat any of his salary.
Chipper will play less than 50 games next year due to injury…if we can’t or don’t sign LaRoche Troy Glaus would be worth the 2-3 million risk at 1B and we might even need him at 3rd.
Nady is probably the best we could hope for in RF with the exception of Jason Heyward.
Don’t count out Jordan Schafer…He was HURT all last year. Nevertheless we likely won’t see him til 2011.
We are NOT getting Bay or Holliday. Nobody else out there gets my juices flowing more than Heyward and Schafer.
hold all the jokes…Frank – please tell us there is no way Greg Norton makes the team.
Frank Wren
December 17th, 2009
12:46 pm
I am happy to announce that Greg Norton has signed a 2-year deal and will be starting at firstbase. Kelly Johnson will be given a spring training invitation and will compete for the secondbase job. Martin Prado will be moved to rightfield. Our 2010 lineup is now complete. PLAY BALL !
Brian
December 17th, 2009
12:47 pm
Ted, if you’re gonna comment, at least know what you’re talking about. Swisher’s numbers were not a product of Yankee Stadium. At home last year, he hit .226 with 8 homers. On the road, he hit .268 with 21 homers. Looks like your argument was 100% incorrect there. Swisher is very UNDERrated by people who still look at batting average as a meaningful statistic. He had 97 walks and 65 extra base hits last year. Those 65 XBHs would have led the Braves last year. And 43 of the 65 were ON THE ROAD. Yeah, real Yankee Stadium bloated numbers there.
Ted
December 17th, 2009
12:50 pm
Brian I stand corrected
Noah
December 17th, 2009
12:56 pm
The Braves signed outfielder/first baseman Mitch Jones, reports David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The 32-year-old is a minor league lifer with five Triple A seasons under his belt. He has big-time power, with 35 home runs and a .651 SLG this year for the Albuquerque Isotopes. Sometimes all these so-called Quad-A guys need is an opportunity; Jack Cust provided good value for the A’s over the last three seasons.
Noah
December 17th, 2009
12:58 pm
Mark DeRosa’s asking price appears to have come down – Olney says it’s in the three-year, $18MM range. Still seems too pricey, but it’s a step in the right direction.
the real Andy
December 17th, 2009
1:01 pm
anybody think there’s a chance we can move Lowe and a prospect to get Rivera or Swisher?
How about Lowe to Angels, prospects from LA to Florida, Willingham to Braves?
4wholefriedchickensandacoke
December 17th, 2009
1:04 pm
Trade Lowe for Brandon Wood now so the Halos can still get Beltre. They pretend like he’s untouchable, but they are secretly worried he can’t replace Figgins. Otherwise just send him to ny for swisher.
the real Andy
December 17th, 2009
1:11 pm
Ted “Swisher is so over rated, he hit .249 w/126 k’s last yr hiS hr’s were the product of new Yankee Stadium. In Atl he’s a bust.”
He hit 21 HRs on the road, and 8 at Yankee Stadium
Joshhh...
December 17th, 2009
1:12 pm
@Brian:
First of all it was a joke. Second of all, you’re really saying that A. Soriano is a BAD baseball player? Are you kidding me?
He’s 2 years removed from the Silver Slugger Award AT LEADOFF! He hit 46 HRs with the stinkin Nationals!
He hit 20 HRs in only 117 games last year (again AT LEADOFF) and that was considered a terrible year for him.
He’s one of the most solid leadoff men ever, a solid LF, hits a guaranteed 20 Hrs (which we dont even have now) and can steal bases…
Yeah he sounds like a BAD baseball player…
By the way I’m a die hard Braves fan, don’t ever question it.
Coach
December 17th, 2009
1:21 pm
Brian- BA is a meaningless stat?? It shows consistency. Sure guys can put the bat on the ball and move runners but eventually he has to hit. SO and OBP are obviously very important as well but how would you rather have up at the plate? A guy hitting .320 or guy hitting .250?? I wouldn’t say that BA is the most important stat but it’s definitely not meaningless.
Noah
December 17th, 2009
1:26 pm
you dont have 20Hr guys now? McClouth and McCain both had 20hrs+ even though they both missed time on the DL.
Joshhh...
December 17th, 2009
1:34 pm
@ Noah – Yes I know we had 20 HR guys but the big word when I was talking about Soriano was GUARANTEED. I remember before the Braves hit that hot streak coming out of the All Star break we were all wondering whether anyone on the Braves would make it to 20 HRs. That was a scary feeling.
Noah
December 17th, 2009
1:39 pm
Josh…Very true, really wish we had got Cammy to help in that department. Who would you sign now. There are certainly many 1st basemen who could fit the bill.
Joshhh...
December 17th, 2009
1:48 pm
@ Noah – Me too man when Cameron signed with the Red Sox I thought “I one hurt.” He may be older but he can still hit & play the outfield. To be honest I wish we could sign LaRoche back to play 1B but his asking price is enormous and way too long for what we’re wanting. For the Outfield I like Rivera of the Angels and Swisher. Rivera is young and still hasn’t hit his stride so his value can continue to increase. I’m a little wary about Swisher but I like him better than Nady. But we’re in a tough situation right now, I’m hoping Heyward shows up during Spring Training & is able to make the cut.
Noah
December 17th, 2009
2:00 pm
Remember there are a lot of free agents out there and last year the deals were out there late. Sounds like some 2nd basemen may have to change position.
A Rod
December 17th, 2009
2:08 pm
Also is it just me or is Lowe on meth? Notice the way he just looks crazy when he’s pitching? Dude’s smacking his lips and moving all weird. Maybe it’s coke idk
A Rod
December 17th, 2009
2:11 pm
lol greg norton. hadnt heard that name in a while. dont remind me please.
Opinion
December 17th, 2009
2:16 pm
I say lets trade kawakami and Lowe, and sign Smoltz for a one year 3 million deal
J-man
December 17th, 2009
2:17 pm
It’s well known that the Braves NEVER (not to Chipper, not to anybody) give out no trade clauses. That means that when you sign with them that you can, in theory, be traded at any time. That’s part of the deal with playing here. If you don’t like it, don’t sign.
The reality is that the Braves’ owners have a hard budget on the team and Lowe’s money is better spent elsewhere given his poor performance and the surplus starting pitching. Lowe even admitted that he knew what was wrong but he was powerless to fix it. Time to become someone else’s problem. The Braves for sure will have to eat some of that contract. The question is how much. Eating $5 million a year for the next 2-3 years would at least free up $10 million per season for hitting.
Joshhh...
December 17th, 2009
2:21 pm
Here’s what Keith Law of ESPN just said about Derek on his chat —
“Derek: Shut up. If this mattered that much you should have taken less money and gotten a blanket no-trade clause.”
RPW
December 17th, 2009
2:27 pm
Derek Lowe will get paid to pitch somewhere. That’s what he does. He doesn’t really care where. So why are you guys sniveling?
It’s business!!!
Joshhh...
December 17th, 2009
2:30 pm
And here is where Jim Caple put the Braves in the Best Teams of the 2000’s –
“Seventh, and a very distant seventh. They went from a team that lost in the postseason all the time to a team that didn’t reach the postseason anymore. Hypothetical Games Behind the Yankees — Red Sox(10) Cardinals(12) Angels(13) Twins(16) Phillies(17) Atlanta(23)”
To be honest I’m surprised we’re that high on his list.
Chipper Murphy
December 17th, 2009
2:31 pm
What about Javy and Lowe for Swisher and J.Chamberlain? JC would probably be like a lot of pitchers who do better outside the NY media circus microscope. You would also really cut salary, which could open up more FA options. Another option would be to seek a trade for Adam Dunn to play first base. It could be a three-way or the Nats might take after the O’s and get a vet starter for the youngsters.
Tim
December 17th, 2009
2:32 pm
Trade KK He isnt major league ready trade lowe not javier get some money and get adam back and maybe a couple prospects its not that hard
Random
December 17th, 2009
2:33 pm
Listen up, people —
Kawkami will not be traded.
Here’s why (imo):
1. Kawakami would pitch better than any likely replacement.
2. The Braves wouldn’t be able to get much of anything for him anyway.
3. Kawakami is more valuable to the Braves than anyone that they would be able to get for him.
4. Wren is personally, emotionally and professionally invested in Kawakami’s Braves career.
5. Wren and the Braves made assurances and commitments to him, to his family, to his management and to the Japanese consulate in Atlanta which if they reneged on would essentially preclude them from ever signing another NPB player.
6. Cultivating and maintaining a Japanese-friendly club would entice additional Japanese talent.
7. Off-the-field considerations, namely recruiting in Japan, and marketing in Japan are enormous considerations at least equal to Kawakami’s on-the-field performance.
8. Kawakami is a good pitcher and getting better as he adjusts to the MLB (ball size, ball slickness, mound height, strike zone, language, food, culture, etc, etc).
9. Tht Kawakami is not just another interchangeable building block, but a cornerstone of a Wren master plan.
Joshhh...
December 17th, 2009
2:36 pm
@ Random – Very good points about Kawakami & Japan — if we traded him away we’d never be able to sign another Japanese player for a LONG TIME.