Braves’ signing of Wagner comes with some risk
Billy Wagner was mostly solid for the Red Sox but got tagged in the playoffs.
After all the problems the Braves had with pitchers and their exploding body parts a couple of years back, it’s interesting that general manager Frank Wren is suddenly hitching the 2010 season in part to two pitchers who are coming off Tommy John surgery.
– A few weeks ago, Tim Hudson was signed to a three-year, $28 million contract. In all likelihood, it was the right decision. Hudson looked strong late last season after missing a year with ligament transplant surgery on his elbow (the procedure named for former pitcher Tommy John). Still, after the health problems of John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton and others, it was thought Wren might be a little gun shy.
– On Wednesday, the Braves signed closer Billy Wagner to a one-year, $7 million contract (with a second-year option). There is greater risk here. There always is with closers.
Wagner at one time was one of the game’s premier closers. He also had elbow surgery and also missed a year. He came back late last season and pitched in two games with the New York Mets in August, then was dealt to Boston, where he finished the season.
Overall, he was solid (except for being tagged for two runs in two-thirds of an inning in the Los Angeles Angels’ 7-6, divisional series clincher over the Red Sox). He had 26 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings, illustrating he could still throw heat.
But there’s risk here, and this might have been as much an economic decision as a baseball one. The Braves have offered arbitration to both Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. But they have a thing about giving fat, multi-year contracts to relievers, and there’s a good chance both will get more money and more years elsewhere.
If the Braves lose both Soriano and Gonzalez, it means the 38-year-old Wagner is the man at the back of the bullpen. For Wren, this could wind up being a smart decision, both for the team and the payroll. It also could backfire. But maybe the Braves are due to have one of these risks work out.
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140 comments Add your comment
Michael
December 2nd, 2009
11:34 am
A risk to be sure, but its won’t weigh us down long term and he still has some punch to his fastball.
Reid Adair
December 2nd, 2009
11:38 am
I think this is a significant risk. I also fear that it means Frank Wren sees little, if any, hope of re-signing Mike Gonzalez and/or Rafael Soriano.
Brian
December 2nd, 2009
11:42 am
Pretty much every closer is a risk. That’s how it goes when you’re paying millions of dollars on a guy who pitches 4-5% of the team’s innings over the course of a year.
Even Mariano Rivera, who is as close to a sure thing as there’s ever been in baseball, is overpaid. But that’s the market, and in that context, this is a good pickup for the Braves.
F-105 Thunderchief
December 2nd, 2009
11:42 am
If he fails, I understand Bob Wickman and Dan Kolb are both available.
Mr_Ed
December 2nd, 2009
11:43 am
first
falcon 71
December 2nd, 2009
11:46 am
he will be on the DL by july
Toots
December 2nd, 2009
11:46 am
Tsk, tsk, Jeffrey. Of course there’s risk. I’m gonna risk getting out in the rain today. Sure, I might melt, but that’s the chance I’ll have to take.
Didn’t you think it was risky every time Bobby called on Gonzo or Soriano this season?
Ben
December 2nd, 2009
11:46 am
I don’t think we have a shot at Gonzalez consitering who his agent is now (I hate Scott Boras). So having Billy Wagner assures us thatwe’ll have a closer next year.
Brian
December 2nd, 2009
11:46 am
The interesting thing no one’s talking about much is the decision not to offer arbitration to LaRoche. Does that mean that the Braves don’t think there will be much of a multi-year market for him this off-season? If so, that would make him easier for the Braves to sign. Or does it mean that the Braves have some other plan in mind for first base?
EW
December 2nd, 2009
11:46 am
Last time we brought in a “closer” was Wickman….Got to think Wagner is gonna be better than him. Still probably gives Bobby the option to use Wagner against some tough lefties when the situation permits (Howard, Utley, and other divisional thorns in our side come to mind)
JSS
December 2nd, 2009
11:48 am
You better hope he turns into John Franco… This has Jeff Reardon and Bruce Sutter written all over it!
2010
December 2nd, 2009
11:48 am
soriano will be back, 9,000,000 for one year is a lot of money; everyone knows what happens if you give him multiyear contract.
RISK???? there is risk on evrything in life, and you spend 6.5 for one year or take the risk and bring soriano for 3 years and 23 mill or gonzo for 3 years and 18 mill.
soriano might be on the shelf for 2 of the 3 years until his contract year to do the job.
and gonzo when he is bad, he is terrible…
Toots
December 2nd, 2009
11:48 am
I don’t understand your comment EW. The last time we brought in a closer it was Wickman? What were Soriano and Gonzo?
Sonny Clusters
December 2nd, 2009
11:48 am
We did the closing for our team. Coming in to close a game is no big deal when you can throw serious heat. We was always smoking the glove when we pitched. Stinky Wintes would put a little powder in his mitt and when we hit it they was a puff of smoke that come up everytime. That was intimidating and especially to those Cobb County boys that had never seen anybody smoke a glove before. They didn’t want to dig in on a Clusters that could do that. Signing Wagner shows they want to compete and will next season. Of course, Bobby Cox could ruin his arm and a few more the way he uses relief pitchers.
MiltonDawg
December 2nd, 2009
11:49 am
Bye bye Gonzo, blame your agent for the Braves not wanting to offer you a big deal. Keep Soriano as setup, Wagner as closer. Should be a solid bullpen. Scott Boras has ruined all of baseball with his players and their enormous salaries.
P Rose
December 2nd, 2009
11:50 am
Gonzo is a competitor and a nice guy but he is wild. Statistically he may be a successful closer, but he usually puts two or three runners on before he gets the job done. And Soriano is just too inconsistent, giving up way too many long balls. If we’re to make it to the post season for Bobby’s last hurrah, I’ll feel a lot better seeing Wagner taking the hill in the ninth.
Deep South Brave
December 2nd, 2009
11:56 am
Ummmm….Jeff, there is risk to both Gonzo and Soriano too! Gonzo just had the same ligament transplant surgery, he was just able to pitch for most of the year, and Soriano had some sort of nerve transplant surgery in his elbow! Both of them could be backfire as well! I think this is a great signing! It protects us from losing Gonzo to free agency, and if they both get long term deal, we net one 1st round draft pick!
PMC
December 2nd, 2009
11:57 am
they’ll keep Gonzo. This is a great high calue move.
Hollywould
December 2nd, 2009
11:57 am
Great move. I couldn’t take any more of Gonzo’s 3-2 counts. Soriano should be paid. A couple of tough stretches but he has good stuff.
midnite
December 2nd, 2009
11:58 am
Schultz any signing nowadays is high risk, even a healthy player. Soriano was lights out in the first half of 2009. Both he and Gonzo were not automatic. They would both have 3-4 game stretches where they were very hittable.
atlbravesfan44
December 2nd, 2009
12:00 pm
I say Soriano and Gonzalez are at least equally as risky, with Soriano likely being more so given his injury riddled past. I like the move. We are obtaining a risk with a lower price tag than either of the other two would have required. The reward is likely greater as well. A couple of other points:
1. The offseason is young. Plenty of time to pick up another arm for insurance.
2. We have a couple of guys named Hyde and Kimbrel as possible insurance in the minors. Not to mention Medlen. I think it’s prudent to take this kind of risk when you have the young depth the Braves have.
Sonny Clusters
December 2nd, 2009
12:01 pm
Jeff, Tiger has come clean. Talk about taking some risks. We was never one to cheat on a girlfriend and probably that was what made us so popular with all the women. That, and good looks and being a state championship. We also have a way with words that the ladies appreciate calling ‘em sweetie and sugar and darlin’. That goes a long way. Maybe Tiger should have said sugar to Elin right before she whacked him with that Ping.
GREG NORTON
December 2nd, 2009
12:01 pm
I’m still available…
Brian
December 2nd, 2009
12:02 pm
Some of you don’t seem to realize it, but this signing all but ensures that neither Gonzalez nor Soriano will be back. I highly doubt the Braves are going to put 15 million into their bullpen this offseason. The Braves will get 2 draft picks for each of them, though.
bvillebaron
December 2nd, 2009
12:06 pm
Jeff:
Am I missing something here? Didn’t Gonzalez and Soriano both miss substantial time due to their own elbow surgeries (Gonzo had TJ himself, but I don’t recall the exact nature of Soriano’s surgery)? Pitchers are always an injury risk, particularly someone who will be 39 next July. On the other hand, many pitchers elbows are actually stronger after TJ surgery and Wagner’s numbers late last year indicate he was more than SOLID. Also, didn’t Moylan pitch and ungodly number of innings last year after his recovery from TJ surgery. If Wagner is even close to what he once was, he is clearly a better option than either Gonzalez and Soriano.
bvillebaron
December 2nd, 2009
12:06 pm
Jeff:
Am I missing something here? Didn’t Gonzalez and Soriano both miss substantial time due to their own elbow surgeries (Gonzo had TJ himself, but I don’t recall the exact nature of Soriano’s surgery)? Pitchers are always an injury risk, particularly someone who will be 39 next July. On the other hand, many pitchers elbows are actually stronger after TJ surgery and Wagner’s numbers late last year indicate he was more than SOLID. Also, didn’t Moylan pitch an ungodly number of innings last year after his recovery from TJ surgery. If Wagner is even close to what he once was, he is clearly a better option than either Gonzalez and Soriano.
Boston Braves
December 2nd, 2009
12:08 pm
Wagner on board for the 9th, let’s get Smoltz for the 8th!
JEZ
December 2nd, 2009
12:08 pm
This should be a great move! And I was always worried when gonzo took the mound anytime in the game. Soriano has great stuff but not in the 9 mil range for multiple years, IMO.
2010
December 2nd, 2009
12:11 pm
k
Boston Braves
December 2nd, 2009
12:11 pm
Reply to Sonny Clusters… Tiger was just getting some extra practice on getting out of the _UFF (You decide R or M)
cattle dawg
December 2nd, 2009
12:14 pm
I like the move. But it seems like the braves are always trying to bring in some old closer to save our bullpen. I wish closers were like kickers. They blow a few games, just find another.
jimmy
December 2nd, 2009
12:24 pm
great move,we are dealing with even more strenght
DHD
December 2nd, 2009
12:27 pm
What signing doesn’t? I like it.
Hillbilly Deluxe
December 2nd, 2009
12:34 pm
It’s a gamble but I guess $7 million ain’t much money relatively speaking. (We’re talking baseball not the real world). I still believe a lot of teams could solve their bullpen problems by having the starters throw more innings. There once was a pitcher who pitched over 200 innings, 14 times. Out of those, he was over 300 twice and he never threw junk; was a power pitcher right ’til the end. ‘Course Nolan was a big ‘ol boy and always stayed in shape.
Angus
December 2nd, 2009
12:35 pm
Shrewd move.
I’m still not renewing season tickets until we get a true lead-off hitter or a big bat. One or the other Frank and I’ll renew.
coach smith
December 2nd, 2009
12:35 pm
UTLEY, HOWARD, IBANEZ, are the three main reasons to sign Wagner
About one-year deal, atlanta braves, billy wagner deal, $7 | Find me About
December 2nd, 2009
12:39 pm
[...] Billy Wagner was mostly solid for the Red Sox but got tagged in the playoffs. After all the problems the Braves had with pitchers and their exploding body parts a couple of years back, it’s interesting that general manager Frank Wren is suddenly …Read Original Story: Braves' signing of Wagner comes with some risk – Atlanta Journal Cons… [...]
Elon Brave
December 2nd, 2009
12:43 pm
And the Bad Cop writes another article…
chemdawg
December 2nd, 2009
12:44 pm
Braves have 6 starting pitchers (as of now) all of whom can eat up innings with the exception of Hudson perhaps. Therefore, they can gamble a little on relief pitchers. If Wagner weren’t a risk, he’d be worth several million more. If you’re not the Yankees, and you want to compete, sometimes you have to bargain shop. Besides, this signing might have brought down Soriano and/or Gonzales price tag.
Rod
December 2nd, 2009
12:48 pm
Jeff, EVERYTHING HAS A RISK!!!
If you don’t want risk in your life, go ahead and die.
Winky
December 2nd, 2009
12:49 pm
oh no….Angus is not renewing his tickets! Please FW, do anything he says. We need Angus in the stadium.
Batcork
December 2nd, 2009
12:56 pm
Was Wren here for the Dan Kolb debacle? If so, I hope his memory isn’t too short for that episode of hitching up to a risky proposition, and having no Plan B (Reitsma does not count). At least Soriano and Gonzo were plan B for one another – when one was hurt or slumping, the other was there to step up. If neither of them return, we need to acquire a solid understudy for Wagner. Not sure Moylan’s enough of a shutdown guy for that role….too many hits allowed to lefties.
collegeballfan
December 2nd, 2009
12:58 pm
I believe they will try to sign Gonzalez. Wagner is to replace Soriano.
Steve
December 2nd, 2009
12:59 pm
I think it’s a risk but it quite evident that Wren didn’t have enough confidence in Soriano or Gonzalez to seriously offer them contracts. I think both of them guys are good but they just are not consistent enough to be full time closers. Gonzales always pitched better from the stretch but yet he wanted to use that rocking motion? One game Soriano could throw 95-97 and the next game he would only hit 91?
Ted Turner please come back
December 2nd, 2009
1:00 pm
I’m ready to see Gonzo go. His mound machinations as he’s getting ready to deliver a pitch make me scream “Just throw a pitch!”. In fact, the odd rocking ritual in his windup remind me of another lefty closer the Braves had who had OCD issues with jerking his shoulder and adjusting his hat- John Rocker. I’m only comparing their pitching deliveries-nothing else- but I would rather watch someone else pitch or just flip the channel with Gozo on the mound.
randyarnold
December 2nd, 2009
1:02 pm
The Wagner deal isn’t bad – as long as you used the money saved by not going after Gonzalez and Soriano for some right-handed power and left-handed starting pitching. Sign LaRoche, have an outfield of Schafer in left, McLouth in center and Heyward in right and don’t depend on the three-run homer. Learn to play small ball. Wonder what the Braves can get for Lowe, Kelly Johnson and others?
Chris
December 2nd, 2009
1:07 pm
I see we have learned nothing from the Mike Hampton Mistake. I think Hudson will make it, he looked strong at the end of the 2009 season. Wagner is a huge risk. One of the reasons the Mets failed down the stretch a couple years ago was because Wagner was blowing saves left & right and now we think he can be a closer for us coming off elbow surgery?????
Cox and Wren better have a backup plan for a closer when Wagner is on the DL by summer.
Blackberry Cobbler
December 2nd, 2009
1:10 pm
Well, here we go again.
The Braves investing in another reclamation project rather than spending money on younger talent.
I for one am tired of this bull$hit.
Ted Turner please come back
December 2nd, 2009
1:10 pm
I think we might get a bag of balls and some pine tar for Kelly Johnson.
But I like the Wagner move and would like to see the Braves either find a stop-gap option at first (maybe including LaRoche) or consider moving Chipper there.
It will be interesting to see what Wren can do in trading Lowe or Kawakami.
Hammer Time
December 2nd, 2009
1:14 pm
I like the Wagner move. When Gonzo was off he was scary. I’m 57 and could have pitched just as wild and alot cheaper.