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Jeff Schultz

Experts say Tech has about hit the ceiling in BCS

2:27 pm November 9, 2009, by Jeff Schultz

The Jackets have had a lot to celebrate this season, including Josh Nesbitt's (9) winning touchdown against Wake Forest. (Johnny Crawford/jcrawford@ajc.com)

The Jackets have had a lot to celebrate this season, including Josh Nesbitt's (9) winning touchdown in overtime against Wake Forest. (Johnny Crawford/jcrawford@ajc.com)

When the first BCS standings were released about three weeks ago, I put together a checklist of what I thought it would take for Georgia Tech to climb from No. 12 to No. 2 and, therefore, make it into the national championship game.

You can click the above link, but I’ll boil it down for you here: 1) Don’t lose another game; 2) Hope a lot of other teams lose games. Simple.

Some of that has happened. It’s why the Jackets now rank seventh. But according to the nation’s two foremost BCS experts, Brad Edwards and Jerry Palm, seventh is about as high as they’re going to go.

When I spoke to both in separate interviews, each also said they could foresee a scenario in which either No. 1 Florida or No. 2 Alabama lost a game to fall back in the rankings, then won the SEC championship to leapfrog Tech again. The reason: The strength of the SEC — perceived and actual — carries a lot more weight with the voters and in computer rankings than the strength of the ACC (and therefore Tech’s schedule).

“I can’t say there’s no way it could happen,” ESPN’s Edwards said of Tech working its way up. “Obviously, I can’t foresee how voters would treat them. But my gut feeling at this point is even a one-loss SEC team finishes ahead of them. What really hurts Tech is their biggest games were played in the first five or six games of the season. They’ve had nothing in the last half of the season to pay close attention to. I’m not sure even winning out would put them ahead of TCU, Cincinnati or Boise State.”

Palm, who operates CollegeBCS.com, said, “Tech’s problem is there’s a general lack of respect for the ACC. Is it better than the Mountain West [which includes TCU]? Yeah, it probably is. But I’m not sure what the voters think of Georgia Tech, compared to those schools ahead of them.”

Do you agree with the comments, or do you think the ACC in general and the Yellow Jackets in particular are being disrespected?

Also, here’s another look at the BCS standings.

BCS Harris Poll USA Today Computer Rankings
RK TEAM AVG PVS RK PTS % RK PTS % AVG A&H RB CM KM JS PW %
1 Florida .9842 1 1 2801 .9828 1 1460 .9898 1 25 24 24 24 25 25 .980
2 Alabama .9516 3 3 2688 .9432 3 1389 .9417 2 24 25 25 25 23 23 .970
3 Texas .9234 2 2 2712 .9516 2 1399 .9485 5 22 23 23 21 19 21 .870
4 TCU .8620 6 4 2424 .8505 4 1262 .8556 4 21 22 22 22 22 22 .880
5 Cincinnati .8580 5 5 2377 .8340 5 1224 .8298 3 23 20 21 23 24 24 .910
6 Boise State .8126 7 6 2349 .8242 6 1200 .8136 6 20 21 18 19 21 20 .800
7 Georgia Tech .7552 10 7 2131 .7477 7 1118 .7580 7 19 18 20 20 18 19 .760
8 LSU .6138 9 11 1634 .8733 11 838 .5681 8 17 19 15 17 20 17 .700
9 USC .5922 12 10 1660 .5825 10 847 .5742 11 15 17 14 16 16 15 .620
10 Iowa .5745 4 12 1540 .5404 13 757 .5132 9 18 16 19 15 15 18 .670
11 Ohio State .5733 16 8 1795 .6298 8 944 .6400 13 14 13 13 10 8 9 .450
12 Pittsburgh .5628 13 9 1713 .6011 9 940 .6373 13 13 10 12 9 10 14 .450
13 Oregon .5318 8 14 1381 .4846 16 665 .4508 10 16 14 17 18 17 16 .660
14 Miami (FL) .4712 17 15 1366 .4793 15 685 .4644 12 11 8 16 12 12 12 .470
15 Houston .4691 15 13 1476 .5179 12 766 .5193 16 10 9 11 0 7 13 .370
16 Utah .4003 14 16 1352 .4744 14 688 .4664 20 6 15 6 4 4 10 .260
17 Arizona .3363 18 19 880 .3088 19 472 .3200 15 7 0 7 13 14 11 .380
18 Penn State .3350 11 17 1057 .3709 17 552 .3742 20 8 12 8 7 0 3 .260
19 Oklahoma State .2909 19 18 979 .435 18 530 .3593 22 5 11 5 2 1 5 .170
20 Wisconsin .2334 21 20 567 .1989 20 341 .2312 19 12 3 9 8 6 4 .270
21 Virginia Tech .2331 23 21 478 .1677 21 268 .1817 17 9 0 10 11 9 7 .350
22 Brigham Young .1236 NR 22 468 .1642 22 216 .1464 25 2 7 2 0 0 2 .060
23 Oregon State .1231 NR 28 94 .0330 28 39 .0264 18 4 6 3 14 13 8 .310
24 South Florida .1084 25 23 266 .0933 24 106 .0719 23 0 5 0 5 11 6 .160
25 West Virginia .0653 NR 24 182 .0639 23 121 .0820 26 3 2 4 0 0 0 .050
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453 comments Add your comment

tech can't hang

November 9th, 2009
3:34 pm

Tech would lose the championship game. Look at the losers that they play with in ACC. They haven’t blown away anyone this year. The ACC is weak and no one will vote a one-loss ACC team when a one-loss SEC team is available. Besides, I think Tech is going to lose to UGA anyway so the point is moot.

Styles

November 9th, 2009
3:36 pm

Oh, how sweet it will be shattering your hopes and dreams on November 28th!

GT

November 9th, 2009
3:37 pm

When all this discussion was going on about non BCS conference representatives getting a shot at the NC ,Tech was being coached by Gailey and that athletic director who both decided we were closer to Rice or Duke than to a national championship team. Most colleges would take the compliment and run, but like a woman being told she can’t run with the boys Tech felt you could educate its young and have winning football in the same sandwich. Somehow during that era we didn’t think we were part of that conversation and we probably gave it a weak reply since our administration was totally convinced we would never be in the mix anyway. Well now we are in the mix and so is TCU, Boise State,not to mention a Cincinnati team I think we could beat too. And their is some expert sitting somewhere already painting the another picture of how Tech can’t do something. We will see my friend ,we will see.

NVAJacketsfan

November 9th, 2009
3:38 pm

Tech has come close to their ceiling, but I don’t think they are there yet. If Tech and Boise State both win out I don’t think Tech would be behind the Broncos. It is even MORE of a percieved lack of SOS. I think no matter what happens to the rest of CFB, if the Jackets win out 5th is probably as high as they can reach in the BCS standings. A loss to UF or Bama in the SEC CCG isn’t going to drop the other one below Tech, Cincy losing to Pitt may not either. The fact is Boise state’s schedule is a joke and because of that it is extremely unlikely they will lose. TCU is helped just as much as Tech with Clemson winning.

So even if Tech does jump Boise and Cincy I don’t think we will move in front of Texas and the SEC head dogs. TCU isn’t going to get passed by us. Just like Tech has owned the SEC that we have played, TCU has owned the ACC that they played so they will get the benefit of the doubt over Tech if they win out.

Alan

November 9th, 2009
3:39 pm

JB
Yeah jb it’s all about the d. Who cares about an offense. Defense wins it all. Just ask all the teams that won scoring 35+ points in the Nat champ game over the past years.

1999 Florida State 12-0 Sugar: Beat Va. Tech 46-29 Bobby Bowden
2000 Oklahoma 13-0 Orange: Beat Florida St. 13-2 Bob Stoops
2001 Miami, Fla. 12-0 Rose: Beat Nebraska 37-14 Larry Coker
2002 Ohio State 14-0 Fiesta: Beat Miami, Fla. 31-24 (2 ot) Jim Tressel
2003 LSU (National Champs)
USC (#1 in AP Poll) 13-1
12-1 Sugar: Beat Oklahoma 21-14
Rose: Beat Michigan 28-14 Nick Saban
Pete Carroll
2004 USC 13-0 Orange: Beat Oklahoma 55-19 Pete Carroll
2005 Texas 13-0 Rose: Beat USC 41-38 Mack Brown
2006 Florida 13-1 BCS Championship Game:
Beat Ohio State 41-14 Urban Meyer
2007 LSU 12-2 BCS Championship Game:
Beat Ohio State 38-24 Les Miles
2008 Florida 13-1 BCS Championship Game:
Beat Oklahoma 24-14

EW

November 9th, 2009
3:42 pm

If Tech really wants to play for a BCS title then it needs to worry about NEXT year. The one consistent thing in the BCS is that teams benefit from the initial poll rankings. If GT wins out this year they will play in a BCS bowl and have the opportunity to be a top 10 preseason team. If they can do that, they set themselves up for a title run, but it won’t be this year.

GT Que

November 9th, 2009
3:42 pm

tech can’t hang
Facts:
CPJ @ GT vs SEC 4-1
CPJ @ GT vs St Richt 1-0
2008 Reg Season, SEC vs ACC 4-6

Opinions:
Everyone in the SEC except for LSU, Bama, and UF would go .500 against the big X, big XII, ACC, big east, mountain west, and WAC

GTville

November 9th, 2009
3:42 pm

If Florida loses to FSU, then GT and UF will have 4 teams to compare. GT will be 4-0 and UF will be 3-1. How could you put UF above GT in such a case? UF has scheduled all cupcakes on its nonconference schedule, except FSU.

If Alabama loses to either UF or Auburn, GT/AL have 2 teams to compare and both are 2-0. Alabama could be ranked higher simply be being Alabama and being in the SEC.

To compare the SEC vs ACC look at the combined record during the year and put most stock in the final week matchups: GT/UGA, FSU/UF, and Clemson/SC. If ACC wins out in the last week, I would put GT ahead.

Boise’s schedule is a joke. North Gwinett could win out in that schedule. TCU played and beat Clemson and UVA, so they have a strong case if they make it. Cincinati has a tougher schedule than Florida and Texas, so they should jump to top 2 with Alabama if all win out.

god and greyhound

November 9th, 2009
3:43 pm

What’s so bad about taking Wake to OT? They’re not a bad team.

5 of their losses are by a total of 13 points. They beat Stanford earlier this year, lost to BC on a freak play in overtime, and were clobbering Miami until they muffed a punt and Skinner got hurt. They would probably beat uog by 2 TDs.

Paul H

November 9th, 2009
3:44 pm

The Mountain West gets more respect than the ACC. Wow.

Justin

November 9th, 2009
3:46 pm

DawginLex,

I’m glad to see that all Dawg fans haven’t giving up yet. All I hear from my Dawg friends are georgia sucks and doesn’t have a chance. But, I do hope your wrong. GO JACKETS!!!

Jackets fan

November 9th, 2009
3:48 pm

I do not see how anyone can rank Boise state so high. They play no one and I mean no one other than Oregan. Lets see how good Boise State is when they actually play someone worth a damn

GT Que

November 9th, 2009
3:49 pm

Paul H

the ACC is .500 against the SEC with atleast 2 more wins coming for the ACC.

GT JJ

November 9th, 2009
3:49 pm

my bold predictions –
Tech wins out, including the ACCCG and Orange
clemson slips up in one of its last two, sending BC to the ACCCG
Pitt and WVU both beat Cinci
Boise and TCU both finish the regular season undefeated
Boise gets rolled in their BCS bowl, TCU proves they’re the real deal in theirs
Texas rolls into NCG against Bama, who knocked the gators off in the SECCG
Tech finishes the season #4 by beating Pitt in the Orange.
Texas wins the NC.

Rico

November 9th, 2009
3:50 pm

Who cares! Just proves the current system is crazy. Just keep winning baby. The only way Tech wins a National Championship is to finish this year 12-1 and then run the table next year.

By the way, I really do think CPJ will move on to a “powerhouse” conference once he wins a couple of BCS Bowls and/or a National Championship. He is motivated by all the “this offense will not work here” talk. He won at Georgia Southern, he won at Navy, he is winning at Georgia Tech AND someday he will want to prove he can win at somewhere like Nebraska, Auburn, Michigan or even the evil Notre Dame.

Tie him down now!!!!

GT For You And Me

November 9th, 2009
3:50 pm

Our entire season is this Sat. Nov.28 and Dec.5 that’s all. Period!

gdawginkalamazoo

November 9th, 2009
3:50 pm

Looking at Cincy’s defense the other night they will probably lose to Pitt. How can you have 600+ yards of offense and still have it come down to the wire. Hell of a back up QB Cincy has though.

Bobby Y

November 9th, 2009
3:51 pm

I know a way that could get rid of the BCS system by next year, it requires a vast majority of teams, players and coaches to be on board against the BCS system. But all that would have to happen is for the players to boycott the bowl games, essentially refuse to play, but every team would have to agree to do it, like a grass roots campaign. Word would spread and come bowl season if every team refused to play, millions would be lost and chaos would ensue. The BCS would be dumped for a playoff system.

Paul H

November 9th, 2009
3:53 pm

GT Que – who are those SEC teams the ACC is .500 against? Exactly. And by the way, nothing commands respect than having a female announce your game.

tech can't hang

November 9th, 2009
3:55 pm

StraightJacket: which “powerhouses” did tech play? Vandy? MSU? the cupcakes Tech played were ACC GAMES. You have to go out of your conference to play anybody worth playing. You played and beat the worst of our conference. We’ll see how you do against a mid-level SEC team when you play UGA. Everybody knows the ACC is weak. Texas won’t lose and UF or BAMA will play in the title game. Even if by some miracle Tech made it to the title game to play UF or BAMA, their defense would suffocate your running game and expose your weak passing game. It’s hard to win with one good receiver and a mediocre passing quarterback.

Tucker T

November 9th, 2009
3:56 pm

I think it’s ironic that Tech would be much better off if UGA had a better record this season. If UGA was a one or two loss team coming into the last game of the season, it would look much better for Tech to beat that team than the very mediocre UGA team that we have. In that way, UGA screws Tech again. This is a small victory but I will take it.

Stat Man

November 9th, 2009
3:57 pm

I repeat:
1) Tech (ACC) is the highest rated 1-loss team in the nation
2) There are more ACC teams in the top 25 than SEC teams

Time for the ACC to quit apologizing for anything, there’s nothing to apoligize for!!!

GT Que

November 9th, 2009
3:59 pm

Paul H

If you are going to Cherry Pick which teams in the SEC warrants respect when you beat them, then let’s just tell it like it is…

The SEC as a whole is not great. Without LSU, Bama, and UF, the SEC is a moderately stronger Big East

Doug

November 9th, 2009
4:00 pm

tech cant hang

Man are you an idiot.
Miss st lost to lsu by 4. They turned the ball over 4 times. Lsu had o to’s and still barrely won. Gt rolls over miss st and wins by 11. Fla gets a bogus non td called a td and wins by 10. Who have you beaten in the sec? Oh that would be vandy and ark. Ark is in last place you dolt. Not miss st. And sc with it’s 4 conf losses. And you barely beat these teams. You are no better than miss st.

Buzz

November 9th, 2009
4:01 pm

Just win baby! Everything else will sort itself out in the way it is supposed to be.

GT Que

November 9th, 2009
4:02 pm

tech can’t hang

Stop being a hater. The acc went 6-4 against the SEC last year in the regular season and the acc is .500 right now against the SEC this year.
GT will beat UGA, Clemson will DESTROY Carolina, and FSU will lose to UF and the ACC will finish 4-3 against the SEC in the regular season this year. Deal with it

Akhil

November 9th, 2009
4:02 pm

Forget about reaching the NC game this yr.
Focus on whipping the rest of our opponents this yr, and winning the bowl game convincingly (no matter who its against..hopefully, someone from the SEC). Then Georgia Tech will get the respect they deserve. GT will start off with a high ranking next yr, and if most or all of our playmakers return, then we have a legitimate chance at the NC next yr.

All Liquored Up

November 9th, 2009
4:03 pm

I think he hit the nail on the head. The ACC is GARBAGE!

Bobby Y

November 9th, 2009
4:04 pm

CPJ will not leave GT for another college football team, at least not for a long time. Switching conferences is like changing lanes in heavy traffic trying to pick the one that is moving the best, once you change lanes the one you were in blows by you. I think that the “best conference” title is always shifting, maybe not year to year but certainly decade to decade. Currently the SEC is the perceived best conference but who’s to say the ACC won’t be the best in five more years. Everything evolves. Paul Johnson will stay at GT and make them an elite team. Many people forget that Georgia Tech football was considered among the best in the country for many decades under coaches like John Heisman, William Alexander and Bobby Dodd. While GT may not be perceived as a powerhouse today Paul Johnson has brought hope to Atlanta that they can become one AGAIN (not for the first time but AGAIN, do your due diligence and wikipedia GT football, there is a lot of history, sucess and tradition that most people are to ignorant to realize)

GT For You And Me

November 9th, 2009
4:05 pm

Booger Man will show up before long with his all CAPS!

tech can't hang

November 9th, 2009
4:05 pm

doug: bottom line. There’s not a chance for Tech to play in the title game. Just watch it play out. Is there any expect that would pick the ACC as a stronger conference (even though this year is down year for the bottom of the SEC) than the SEC? No way. Tech will narrowly beat UGA if they win and it’ll all be over. Just watch.

dobearsbare

November 9th, 2009
4:06 pm

To me, Tech’s hopes, assuming the Jackets win the rest of their games, hinge on Texas. I’m sorry, but the Longhorns aren’t losing. They have an axe to grind with Texas Tech, which isn’t as good as it was last year, and while A&M has a history of causing problems for the Horns, it’s hard to imagine that happening this time around. Which is good for Georgia fans, whose worst nightmare might be having Florida play GT for the national championship.

Old Gold '71

November 9th, 2009
4:08 pm

Here’s my thinking: First, Georgia Tech must just keep winning. Period. That’s the only think that it can control, and if the Jackets continue to win, a few ahead of them will fall. Win out in the regular season, win the ACC CG, and win the Orange Bowl (which will be against a credible opponent, and I would expect Georgia Tech to finish in the final BCS poll’s Top Five teams.

It is about earned respect, and this is a year when Tech can begin to establish itself among the nation’s better programs, for the first time in a long time. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and there’s nothing wrong at all with going 13-1 and finishing in the Top Five. I believe Paul Johnson’s teams will be Top Ten squads year-in and year-out, and the Jackets’ day will come. It’s all about producing a reputation built on consistent winning, and hopefully it starts this year.

Hillbilly Deluxe

November 9th, 2009
4:09 pm

I don’t really follow college football but this Tech team has sort of grown on me.

GT Que

November 9th, 2009
4:11 pm

Doug

“tech can’t hang” is just a pusillanimous UGA fan that cannot stand the thought of GT competing for its FIFTH national title while UGA is barely above .500 (maybe 5-5 after Sat).

Paul Johnson will rattle off atleast 2 more victories in a row against UGA and he will compete for a BCS National Title WAY before Richt does because whether GT is 11-0 going into the UGA game or 0-11, FLORIDA is UGA’s daddy and as long as UGA is in the SEC east with florida, they will never be more than 3rd in the SEC

Remember1990

November 9th, 2009
4:11 pm

GT was ranked 7th in the November 6th poll and was given no chance of moving up, yet we were #2 by the first week in December. Stranger things have happened and will again.

Jaded Jacket

November 9th, 2009
4:12 pm

The ACC as a whole sticks. No doubt about it. But when the PAC10 sucked the voters didn’t treat USC with disrespect. It’s clear that the SEC teams play considerably more cupcakes than the SEC. Seems like the SEC schools have played cupcakes for the last two weeks. What’s up with that?

Jaded Jacket

November 9th, 2009
4:14 pm

The ACC as a whole stinks. No doubt about it. But when the PAC10 sucked the voters didn’t treat USC with disrespect. It’s clear that the SEC teams play considerably more cupcakes than the ACC, but no one seems to notice. The SEC schools have played cupcakes for the last two weeks. That’s not very interesting football this late in the year. What’s up with that?

Left Handed Complement

November 9th, 2009
4:14 pm

I think there is a feeling that GT’s team is a kind of a fluke b/c they use an offense that is not widely used and that is why teams lose to them. Not true, but some people just don’t like CPJ’s offense.

Josten

November 9th, 2009
4:15 pm

Attention GT athletic department:

Please contact us as soon as possible regarding your “We Beat WF” rings. We are having trouble getting the “Whew” to fit on the side with Paul Johnson’s sweaty face.

Alabama Jack

November 9th, 2009
4:17 pm

Beat Duke. We’ll talk about everything else next Sunday.

m

November 9th, 2009
4:18 pm

Enter your comments here

gcs

November 9th, 2009
4:18 pm

You can compare conferences all you want but what Techsters need to realize is that they have something TCU, Cincy and Boise do not: a loss. And it wasn’t a close FG-at-the-end-of-regulation loss. It wasn’t a blown call by the refs that made them lose. The Jackets lost 33-17 to Miami.

.

Joe Fan

November 9th, 2009
4:19 pm

The SEC is simply a mediocre conference that just happens to have two undefeated teams because of very questionable officiating. You puppies need to quit whinning. You were lucky to win more than 2 games this year and next year want be any better. If either of the redshirt qbs were better than cox, they would have been playing long before now. So just keep getting those top ten recruiting classes.

Brad

November 9th, 2009
4:19 pm

The key problem in college football is mentioned in your article …”not sure what the voters think of them”. They should just eliminate the polls altogether. Even if they institute an 8 team playoff to a certain degree your still dependent on subjective assessments. People are ranked before season starts which is the baseline…and that’s wrong.

When it boils down to it forget strength of schedule..the voters will go for the marquee matchup to get the best ratings on Television and sell the most tickets. It’s a farce. There is too much money and college football is too big to be deciding their champs this way.

JacketFan

November 9th, 2009
4:20 pm

We just need to keep doing what we are doing. I remember this same conversation about the 07 UGAg team. We can’t control the BCS rankings, only our performance on Saturday. Winning championships takes time and this is only season 2 under PJ. We win an ACC championship and I will be over the moon. We win ACCCG and beat Georgia, I think this will go down as one of the great Tech moments in history and leave us sitting pretty for a real run at it next season. Let’s celebrate what we have accomplished before talking about playing for the NC. If it’s meant to be, then it will work out. Stay focused! Beat Duke!

Go Jackets!

To Hell With Georgia!

m

November 9th, 2009
4:20 pm

Enter your comments here

WE NEED A PLAYOFF!!

The BS-bcs stinks worse than any system ever developed by man. It is so ridiculous that it is insane that it is allowed to stay in existence.

This year is a perfect example. If we had a16 team playoff…not only would it be the most exciting sporting event in the history of the world…but also every team would be treated fairly and the results ON THE FIELD would stand for itself. No one’s idiotic opinion would count…expecially not these stupid and biased poll voters.

Get rid of the BS-bcs NOW.

Tide Rising

November 9th, 2009
4:21 pm

Jeff,

The ACC’s losses to the Colonial Conference really hurt them in the computer polls. Losses to other conferences such as the sec didn’t help either. But on a % basis how much did the colonial conference losses hurt the ACC in the computer rankings? Any idea or is there any way to tell?

m

November 9th, 2009
4:22 pm

Jeff…can’t you see?

WE NEED A PLAYOFF!!

The BS-bcs stinks worse than any system ever developed by man. It is so ridiculous that it is insane that it is allowed to stay in existence.

This year is a perfect example. If we had a 16 team playoff…not only would it be the most exciting sporting event in the history of the world…but also every team would be treated fairly and the results ON THE FIELD would stand for itself. No one’s idiotic opinion would count…expecially not these stupid and biased poll voters.

Get rid of the BS-bcs NOW.

bull-dykes

November 9th, 2009
4:23 pm

hey tech can’t hang –

You should be talking since the only thing you’re hanging is your bright red strap-on that rosie o’donnell gave to the entire bull-dyke nation!

let’s face it – you are a bull dyke. the bull dawgs are done.

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