Thrashers hope there’s substance behind the optimism
Thrashers defenseman Zach Bogosian, here pinning Tampa Bay's Todd Fedoruk against the boards, should be one of the Thrashers' bright spots this season. (AP photo).
It starts as it seemingly always does: with optimism. Nothing is so unspoiled as 82 games that haven’t been played yet.
“This is our year,” the star, Ilya Kovalchuk, said earlier in the week.
“I like our hand,” the coach, John Anderson, beamed.
“I believe so – absolutely,” the general manager, Don Waddell, responded when asked if this was a playoff team. (And we’ll pass on checking the quote archives from past Octobers.)
The Thrashers opened season No. 10on Saturday night against Tampa Bay. If the rest of the games start like this one did, playoffs won’t be a problem. All they need is for Pittsburgh, Washington and Detroit to put the puck in their own net like Lightning defenseman Paul Ranger did eight minutes into the game, and let things flow from there. That first goal jump-started a 4-0 lead, which was followed by a near collapse (4-3) but ended in a 6-3 victory at Philips Arena
That’s one.
“You know, last year we won the first game, too,” Kovalchuk said, with a slight smile. “Now we’ve got a big challenge ahead of us.”
He was referring specifically to five straight road games. But he could’ve been referencing the next 81. Nothing can be assumed about the Thrashers. There is no way of knowing for certain what is reality: The 12-6 finish last season or the 23-35-6 record that preceeded it. The franchise is at a “prove it” stage with us. Assume playoffs? Not a chance. When there’s one post-season appearance in nine seasons, we assume nothing. When the past nine conference finishes are 15th, 13th, 15th, 11th, 10th, 10th, third, 14th and 13th, we assume nothing.
Ilya Kovalchuk started his season with two goals. In case you're wondering, that puts him on a 164-goal pace. (AP photo)
The good Saturday?
“We can score goals,” said Anderson, whose team had four different goal scorers, led by Kovalchuk and Rich Peverley at two each. “We haven’t lost that scoring ability, which I like, so we know what we have to fix.”
The bad Saturday? They saw Tampa Bay score twice in the second and once early in the third to close to 4-3, before Eric Boulton’s brawl with Todd Fedoruk seemed tochange momentum.
What did Anderson think when the Lightning scored three straight goals.
“Rut-roh,” he said.
Pretty sure Scotty Bowman never quoted Scooby Doo in the post-game, but I kinda like it.
They are faster, stronger and deeper. We just can’t know if they’re fast, strong or deep enough. The problem with evaluating the Thrashers is their starting point tends to be so far behind the curve that you can never project if improvements have even closed the gap, let alone propelled them past others in the field.
Waddell, who has managed to cling to his position this long, understands. When asked earlier in the week what he would tell the team’s diminishing fan base, he sounded like he was almost pleading: “Give us that opportunity. Let us win your trust back. Let us prove to you we have a product on the ice.”
Skill, speed and depth all appear to have improved. But there are two significant issues. One is goaltending. Kari Lehtonen has been neither consistently healthy nor consistent when healthy. When the season opened, he was on the injured list after back surgery. The touted but relatively unproven Ondrej Pavelec started the game (and stopped 36 of 39 shots).
The other issue is Kovalchuk. Everybody’s optimistic about him re-signing. But his name’s not on a contract yet. Everybody says he won’t let the situation affect him on the ice. But Marian Hossa said the same thing, struggled, was traded and only afterward admitted the obvious: The situation affected him.
Nationally, most media outlets project the Thrashers to miss the playoffs and finish among the bottom three in the Eastern Conference. ESPN? No playoffs. Sporting News? No. The Hockey News? No. Sports Illustrated? Mostly no. Five out of six hockey contributors at SI.com picked the Thrashers to miss the post season, the exception being a writer who doubles as one of the team’s broadcasters.
But they’re one for one. So far all is good. And unspoiled.
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37 comments Add your comment
Jeff Schultz
October 3rd, 2009
11:46 pm
OK puck fans. Sorry but technical issues had commenting closed for a couple hours but it’s open now.
Sean
October 4th, 2009
12:38 am
Copy editing? C’mon Schultz, get those spaces in. Show the bloggers how to write!
Two phenomenal efforts with one sleepy span in between. All the new pieces look good. I’m excited! One down, 81 to go! I’m sure I’ve always said this, but … THIS IS THE YEAR!!
DamYankee
October 4th, 2009
12:41 am
Wow, third! Is there anybody in there? And, the Thrashers showed some fire tonight, I just hope it isn’t an 82 game farewell tour for Kovy.
MB
October 4th, 2009
12:42 am
Exciting game. Won’t lie…Pavelec made me nervous and I didn’t see the effort out of Antropov that I’d hoped, but there were plenty of positive signs, as well. Of course you’d expect a strong game from Kovy and all were happy with Peverley’s strong showing, but I also thought that Kane played better as the game went along and that Afinigenov had a good game…hopefully his linemates will soon be able to anticipate his phenomenal passes and bury them.
Defense…well, we struggled a bit. Looked a bit out of synch, and Popovic seemed to struggle (though overall I’m a fan of his). We seemed to have the jitters at first, took momentum, then TB took it away for a bit in the late 2nd/early 3rd. But I’m proud of the boys for hanging tough and bringing home the win.
Sara
October 4th, 2009
12:43 am
You know what – I’d just as soon everyone else in the NHL take the Thrashers for granted as an easy win. Makes it so much easier to sneak up on them. Definitely some work that needs to be done with defensive zone play (so many skilled puckhandlers and we’re still rimming it around the boards for clearing attempts??). But it wasn’t gawd awful and as a starting point I’ll take it. There’s a real opportunity for this team on the upcoming road trip. Great chance for team bonding and time away from the distractions at home to really focus on their games individually and as a team.
The keys here are the guys all have the right mindset from the Captain on down and Anderson isn’t blinded by a 6-3 victory into thinking the team is perfect. They’ve got all the skills they need to be a real force (fingers crossed on the goaltending), they just have to find the right systemic approach as a five man unit on D to pull it all together.
Brendan
October 4th, 2009
12:43 am
Jeff, GM Waddell was interviewed by the Sports Illustrated writer in question, Darren Eliot, after the 1st period. Here were the highlights. He said his goals were to get the team more size up the middle and on the blueline. So, naturally he talked about the Kubina trade and the Nik Antropov acquisition. Waddell added that, “I really liked our corps of guys last year, so there were no plans to overhaul the roster, but we knew we couldn’t just rest on that.” Waddell also said that adding Max Afinagenov and Mark Popovic would help the team.
Hmmn. I guess that’s probably true. I’d add that the Thrashers blueline is arguably the best it’s ever been. But it still has a ways to go. Earlier in the offseason, Waddell told AJC beatwriter Chris Vivlamore that his plan was to win games, 5-4, and not say, 2-1. Well, it’s a fact that the Thrashers have given up the most goals against of any team since 1999.
Continuing with the Waddell interview, as conducted by Darren Eliot, Waddell said that Evander Kane was, in his mind, “here to stay.” Waddell clarified, “We want to monitor his play, to see how he stacks up against 230-pound defensemen night after night.” Waddell said, “He skates well and he reads the plays well.” Waddell added, “He belongs here,” then shrugged off Darren’s suggestion that Kane might be returned to Juniors (WHL-Vancouver) after the nine game audition. Waddell said, “We can send Kane down anytime we want, it’s not an issue.”
Really? That almost sounds like, *gasp* Waddell and the Spirit would start running the franchise by making hockey decisions, rather than financial ones. To what am I referring? Well, Evander Kane is on a “capped rookie contract.” In other words, he’s 18 now. That’s 18, 19, and 20. Well, if they returned him to Vancouver, they’d get Kane, a 4th overall selection in the 2009 draft, for the ages of 19, 20, and 21. So, it begs the question, “What’s better? Having Evander Kane at age 18, on a capped rookie contract … or at age 21, under that same capped rookie contract?” It’d be better to take advantage of what Kane can bring at age 21, under that 3-year deal. That’s my opinion. I could be wrong.
Moving right along, Waddell was asked about Zach Bogosian, and giving him the “A” on the jersey. Waddell said he wasn’t surprised at all by Zach’s progress, adding, “We knew we had a real mature player when we drafted him at age 17. We know he can handle having the “A” — and we’ve seen guys around the league respond to that.” (Being named an Assistant Captain.) Waddell amplified, “This is Bogey’s team, along with Kovy, moving forward. Why not give it to him now?”
Okay, I agree with all of that. Last item from the Waddell interview. Darren asked Don about the Kovy contract. Waddell said, “We’ve had GREAT negotiations with Jay Grossman, Kovy’s representation. We’ll meet more in the upcoming weeks.” Waddell added that “Kovy wanted to see how the team would play once it came together.”
What? Weeks? Weeks imply a month, potentially. In Thursday’s print edition of the AJC, Waddell was quoted in a Vivlamore article as saying, “I don’t think we’ll be talking about this at Christmas time.”
Good! I hope not. The sooner this can get done, the better. As far as tonight’s game was concerned, Atlanta produced six (6) goals. Including two from defensemen (Bogosian and Salmela). How many times will Atlanta score six times? If it’s going to take 4 goals, every game, on average, to win … Atlanta will be trouble. It’s far better to get the goals against from 3.5 down to a much more manageable 2.5. Atlanta gave up 39 shots against, including double-digit shots in EACH period. Now, granted, that was while nursing a 4-0 lead. But still, that’s got to improve.
Well Jeff, if Atlanta gets to 12 games over .500, “NHL-style,” they’ll make the playoffs. 94-points gets it done, every time. So, the Thrashers must go 46-35 from here on out. I’ve hung 92-points on a board, tearing off numbers 94 and 93 from that list, thanks to tonight’s win. That’s how many points Atlanta has to go.
Jeff, can you confirm Waddell’s contract is up at season’s end? How about Anderson’s? And, through your contacts, can you find out if Kovalchuk wanted Nikki Zherdev here? If he did, Atlanta was $10 million under the cap and Zherdev’s arbitration award was $3.9 million. Certainly, Atlanta had the money to get Kovy the player he wanted, if INDEED, Kovy wanted him. Maybe that’s why Kovalchuk hasn’t signed right away? He’s still not convinced this organization is truly committed to spending what it takes to get it to the next level. Your thoughts?
Jeff Schultz
October 4th, 2009
1:00 am
Sean — For the record, they’re on an 82-win pace. That would be a franchise record, I think. Hey seriously, I think this team has potential. But still so many young and new pieces that it’s impossible to project. Key, as ALWAYS, is goaltending.
Dam Yankee — I’m still up, but fading. Getting read to turn in. Have no feel for Kovy situation right now.
MB — Good analysis. I thought Peverly looked real strong, obviously Ilya. Agree on defense (which allowed too many chances/shots) and Pavelec (who seemed to look behind him a lot and lost sight of puck).
Sara – a win’s always a good starting point. Obviously there were some issues but players seemed aware of them after game and weren’t deluded, which is a good sign.
Waddell — All that stuff was pretty much said in a news conference this week, and the “Christmas quote” on Kovie he told me after that news conference, which I blogged about.
http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2009/09/30/kovalchuk-probably-wont-have-new-deal-before-opener/
On DW’s contract: Don’t know. Actually was having that conversation with somebody today. On Anderson’s contract. Most incoming coaches get 3 year deals so I’d be surprised if he doesn’t have a year left after this one. Can’t remember what we wrote when they hired him.
On Kovie’s deal — I’ve stopped paying attention to the “he’ll sign” talk. It’s a story when he signs. Otherwise, talk means nothing — and Ilya has ALL of the leverage. We’ll see how it plays out.
Jeff Schultz
October 4th, 2009
1:01 am
Brendan — sorry, obviously those last comments beginning “Waddell” were in response to you.
Brendan
October 4th, 2009
1:27 am
The “new” thing I took away from that Interview was that Waddell said Kane is here to stay. I thought, for sure, he was on the 9-game audition. I guess we’ll see, soon enough. The kid had an assist tonight and was a +1, while logging 11 minutes of ice time.
Brendan
October 4th, 2009
1:29 am
I’m really curious if Kovalchuk WANTED Zherdev here in Atlanta. In the pregame show, Kovalchuk “guaranteed” there would be playoffs this year.
Cornbread
October 4th, 2009
2:06 am
They looked good, as they always have the past few years, on the initial atack. After that, they scared the Hell out of me. This team is going to score a lot of goals. The question is how many are they going to give up? Kovalchuk really needs to step-up his defensive game and lead by example in that area for the rest of the team. Improve in their own zone and the Thrashers are going to surprise a lot of people this season.
John
October 4th, 2009
2:30 am
They looked a lot better than a bunch of other opening night teams throughout the league. Defenseman were carrying the puck into the zone, the passes were pretty crisp, and they were forcing turnovers and forchecking. For the most part the boys were pretty tough in the corners and Pavelic looked solid. Some of those goals you just don’t have a chance on…St. Louis pretty much vaporized that puck from the top of the circle…that deflection off Meszaros…sure, that first one you want back but it’s Marty St. Louis, he’s gonna score on you. There were times when Kovalchuk looked like he was playing against a men’s league team out there, and you can tell he’s really taking this team on his shoulders. He skated right out to pavelic after the game and made sure the boys saw it. This team is faasst….with Afineginov, Kovalchuk, Kane, they should have no problem stretching the ice and moving the puck quickly.
Thrashers Fan1957
October 4th, 2009
6:44 am
The way Pavelec played last night makes me think the Thrashers are in for a long, long road trip, besides the 3 goals he let in, he looked behind him 3 or 4 other times throughout the game and also had his back completely turned to the play on two shots in the first period that luckily went wide.
Can’t do it without goaltending and the Thrashers dont have it.
English Teacher
October 4th, 2009
7:57 am
You were great on Hogan’s Heroes.
The Real Thrash
October 4th, 2009
9:31 am
39 shots allowed. Unless that stops we are in deep trouble. Again!
Jeff Schultz
October 4th, 2009
11:13 am
John — middle of pack teams need to bank as many points as they can in the first month or six weeks of the season because the really good teams tend to get going after that. At the beginning everybody is still trying to figure things out.
English Teacher — Thanx. First time I heard that one.
Brendan
October 4th, 2009
12:28 pm
TF1957, I noticed that about Pavelec, too. Few goalies can stop shots while facing the back of their own net, with their derrieres facing the shooter. He’ll get better as the season progresses. The key for the Thrashers is to get all the points they can, wherenever they present themselves.
There is a silver lining of this game. At 4-0, Atlanta almost let Tampa earn an undeserved point in the standings. When the game became 4-3, we are all admittedly nervous.
Hockey Biltong
October 4th, 2009
1:26 pm
Hogan! Hogan!
DamYankee
October 4th, 2009
1:30 pm
Maybe it’s the modern, “international” game or maybe my memory’s gone, but I’m pretty sure I remember a lot more hitting when I had Caps season tickets in the 80’s. Too often the defense is backing across the blue line stick checking a rush instead of standing up at the blue line and delivering some hits. Have the rules changed that much, or is the skating that much better, that it seems a solid body check in open ice is a thing of the past?
JSS
October 4th, 2009
2:27 pm
Yankee, teams don’t back check any more … If you don’t forecheck effectively, the modern snipers like Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, Malkin, and Yashin (when he was still in the League) will skate rings around most defensemen. So going for big hits leaves you vulnerable… You miss it and bam, it is in the back of the net…
Hillbilly Deluxe
October 4th, 2009
2:32 pm
I’m just a casual hockey fan but I’ve always thought the Thrasher’s glaring weakness was defense. Hopefully they’ll improve on that this year.
Jeff is right about getting as many points as they can now. Every point you get now is one you don’t have to get later. That’s simplistic but it’s true.
John
October 4th, 2009
2:39 pm
The box score says that the attendance was 18k+, which means it was essentially sold out. I saw a lot of empty seats last night, though, especially in the upper deck. I am guessing no more than about 14k butts were actually in the seats. Also, does it bother anyone else that even for the big games that only about 1/2 of the club seats down low to the ice are actually filled? It looks awful on television that the so many prime seats are empty.
JSS
October 4th, 2009
2:43 pm
Oh yeah Jeff Schultz, I haven’t forgotten the Olympic email. I had to fly back to L.A. for a work emergency. Still, can drop a brief blog, but that is a lot of work and I need to get some things that take some research… Maybe on Wednesday or Thursday…
Mike Jones
October 4th, 2009
2:53 pm
No one cares Terence
EA
October 4th, 2009
5:05 pm
John, it bothers me, but in this economy, who is surprised? Single game lower bowl seats sell normally for $78 AND $90 plus. Also, with the previous few seasons, it will take consistent winning to fill them up. Last night was a positive sign of things to come with the young talent and acquisitions. It was a real treat to watch at Philips.
Falconsforlife
October 4th, 2009
11:55 pm
Yeah the 18k “sold” was definitely not the amount of people in the arena. It was still a great crowd and a great atmosphere. Attendance doesn’t pick up here until after college football, and frankly I was surprised there were that many people there yesterday considering last season and Georgia had a home game. If this team is in it heading into December, the attendance for the last half of the season should pick up a great deal.
It’s not hard to win back the fans that have been burned by this team. (including myself) Just win baby. AND SIGN KOVALCHUK.
Collin
October 5th, 2009
7:00 am
People aren’t sure what to think about the additions and it makes sense, but what I see is a team in a good system with a lot more skill than we’ve had in a long time. This is going to be a good year.
Dawggy Style
October 5th, 2009
9:21 am
While I agree that Pavs can make a cup of coffee nervous, he did only allow 3 goals on a night when Brodeur, Khabibulin and Ward all got toasted in losses. Let’s enjoy his “excitement” and take the points when we can! Also, kudos to Thorburn and Boulton for doing their jobs exceedingly well!!
Old Time Hockey
October 5th, 2009
9:58 am
As stated, a win is a win. It’s a lot easier to work on correcting things after a win. I personally give Pavelec credit for not only the win, but lasting through the game without injuring his groin. That’s a change from the past. All of Kari’s issues are the result of poor conditioning. Bad back is from weak core muscles. Weak core muscles are from not working out efficiently. Not working out efficiently is how you end up injured and not living up to your potential. Here’s hoping Pavelec starts to show some confidence and makes Kari expendable when/if he is healthy.
Brendan
October 5th, 2009
12:15 pm
I personally give Pavelec credit for not only the win, but lasting through the game without injuring his groin.
Okay, you got me. I burst out laughing. Thanks!
Thrashers27
October 5th, 2009
2:25 pm
One thing to point out is that most of the hockey pundits are so dismissive of The Thrashers as legitimate contendors that they overlook them in their polls. I really don’t think they take the time to look at the chemistry and talent of the team. They really don’t know who John Anderson is and have no idea what he is capable of. Darren Elliot gives a favorable rview of the Thrashers and feels they are post season bound. Sure this could be because he feels obligated, but I really think he believes the Thrashers are contendors because he is familiar with the team and knows what they’re truly capable of.
Playoffs, here we come!!! Go blue!
Ed-Covington
October 5th, 2009
10:01 pm
Right from the “we have two solid goalies for the next ten years” (one of them being Damien Rhodes!!!) statement after the expansion draft, this franchise has either lied to the fans or exhibited a fatal naivete in judging hockey talent. The Flames were never this bad and they left.
Judgement of this team:
Goaltending: Adequate
Offense: Better
Defense: Atrocious (named after one of Caesar’s assassins, I think!)
Same story every year. This administration is convinced that offense, not winning, will save this franchise. They are sadly misshapened, I mean mistaken. Kovy wants his name on the cup, and he knows it won’t happen here. He can make the same, if not MORE money with a winner. He leaves after this season, the franchise moves to Alpharetta. I honestly believe that there is a sufficient hockey fan base in metro Atlanta to support a successful franchise; but knowledgeable hockey fans will NOT support a poorly-run franchise just because the players have ATLANTA written across their jerseys. I’m not saying they need to win the Cup, just make some progress. What real improvement have we seen in this team from the beginning other than Kovy? After how many trades and low high draft picks? I’ll be sorry to see Atlanta lose an NHL franchise, but I won’t be sorry to see DW and his Thrashers go.
Brendan
October 5th, 2009
10:43 pm
There is virutally no chance this franchise is leaving. At least prior to 2019. There is “some chance” that this is Don Waddell’s last year. Yeah, we’ve been hearing that for going on half a decade. But per Forbes Magazine, Waddell’s contract expires in 2010. Meaning?
Well, nothing. I suppose. As long as this ownership is in charge, Waddell probably stays. Irrespective of the outcome of the 2010 season, or if Kovalchuk leaves. There can and will be hockey after Kovalchuk in Atlanta. It means the Thrashers have to try something different, in terms of a strategy. I won’t go into it, since Kovy isn’t gone yet. But there’s a strategy that can work, sans Kovalchuk.
This city has 5 million people. It’s one of the larger TV markets. And all it truly needs to be successful … is competent ownership and accountable management. Once that arrives or is installed, the NHL will look pretty smart for putting hockey in Atlanta.
Ed-Covington
October 5th, 2009
11:18 pm
2019? Ten more years? Kovy is leaving. Why would he stay? If the T’s can/t draw WITH Kov., how can they w/o him? You are saying that this franchise can last 10 more years drawing 7000-8000 per game! Think so?
JS
October 6th, 2009
12:09 am
Where is kovy going to make more money? More than half of the teams already have cap issues. this isn’t MLB where the Yankees and Red Sox can just write another check. What legitimate contender can offer him the contract he is looking for if it is all about the money?
Ed-Covington
October 6th, 2009
12:33 am
It’s NOT all about the money. Kovy wants to play for a contender. There are plenty of contenders WITHOUT cap issues with more resources than the Thrashers. Kovy would leave for LESS money to go to the right team.
Brendan
October 7th, 2009
3:14 pm
Ed, 7,000 to 8,000 fans just represents the following of the OTHER team visiting Philips Arena. If Atlanta draws 4,500 of its own fans, that’s 12,500. And chances are, they’ll average 12,000 to 14,000 fans even in bad seasons.
This season, Atlanta is projected 13th or 14th in the Eastern Conference. And Opening Night was a sellout. All this market really needs is BELIEF in the ownership and management. I wouldn’t exactly say that’s been achieved. I’m just saying … that’s all it’d really take. There’s virtually no way the team would play to 7,000 fans a night, even if the team finished with 76-points every year.
At 75-points every year, that’s still 12,500 fans, on average. And with revenue-sharing dollars, the team will stay afloat. That’s far from an ideal situation, but clearly, that’s how it’s worked in the past.