Writers, coaches should dump early season polls
This was Paul Johnson's reaction when he was asked about early season polls, and I can't say that I blame him. (Johnny Crawford/jcrawford@ajc.com)
Damn, I’m good.
OK, so this hasn’t been the best financial start in the history of Weekend Predictions. But I’ve hit most of my major picks so far, and after nailing South Carolina’s upset of Mississippi Thursday night, I think I’ve finally stumbled upon the winning formula for this season: Just pick against one overblown highly ranked team every week.
The Rebels began the season as an overrated No. 8. They rose to a really overrated No. 4 through attrition. But when they lost to the Gamecocks, 16-10, in Columbia, it was the fourth straight week a top 5 team has lost since the preseason rankings came out. They have been, in order: No. 3 Oklahoma (to No. 20 BYU), No. 5 Oklahoma State (to unranked Houston), No. 3 USC (to unranked Washington), and No. 4 Ole Miss (to unranked South Carolina).
Overall, seven top 10 teams and 10 top-15 teams already have lost, and we’ve bare touched Week 4.
The fact that three top-5 teams have lost to unranked teams is the really disturbing part. Are you starting to get the feeling that early-season rankings don’t mean anything?
It has been said before but it’s worth re-stating: Early season rankings should not exist. The Associated Press writers’ poll and the USA Today coaches’ poll should forget about pre-season rankings. They shouldn’t come out with opening polls until at least — at least – early October, after most teams have played five games. That would eliminate so much of the goofiness.
Now, the argument against this is that fans and media debate rankings from the time the pre-season polls come out in August. Debate is what makes college football special. The problem is that you have teams that are either significantly overrated or underrated in the pre-season. That can have poll ramifications for the rest of the season. For example, LSU was a preason No. 11 and now is at No. 7 because other teams have lost. But it’s conceivable if the poll didn’t come out until October, the Tigers would open with a top-5 ranking.
Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson, whose team has dropped from No. 15 to out of the rankings, said it best: “I do not care about the polls. That is ridiculous anyway. I can look and see so many different things that do not make any sense. How can Oklahoma be ranked ahead of BYU or Oklahoma State sitting ahead of Houston? Teams that have beat teams head-to-head are nine spots behind them. Right now, this time of year, the poll does not mean anything.”
They’re fun to argue about. But they I think we can do without the arguments in September.
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74 comments Add your comment
Pi$$onaDawg
September 25th, 2009
12:35 pm
CUZ give Tech a pass on Gardner-Webb too because a team that is talking to your Dawgs, USMA “ARMY” backed out on us last minute too.
T.O.S.S I don’t caddy. I know S.I.C is in trouble and actually putting Ads on TV, Radio, and more in Architectural Digest, but I hope they don’t go under. I liked the American Package with room & food as a great deal and kept the hotel full. I didn’t like John’s house either when he was building it. It doesn’t fit the Sea Island “FEEL”, but he paid a lot to get it built. I was walking the property as it was being built and ran into a guy in coveralls. We started to chat. He asked what I thought. I said I liked it but it looked like CRAP on Sea Island. Turned out it was John Portman I was talking too. He was very nice. Said he didn’t think it was out of place, but I was welcome to my “EYES LOVE”. We enjoyed a Brandy at the Beach Club a little later that day.
The Other St. Simons
September 25th, 2009
12:40 pm
Pi$$onadawg, I thought you were cool till the brandy and the beach club thing. Do you wear an ascot?
Kidding. yes, it’s tenuous at best down here. Portman is a genious I am sure, but he’s no Frank Lloyd Wright.
Pi$$onaDawg
September 25th, 2009
12:44 pm
I think T. Barnhart cut me off. I never cussed or used race in a post. He didn’t like me ASKING WHO IS #1 after his article. I said he is one of the writers that think they are gods and know better than the fans. So, why does he tell us who should be #1 if he can’t figure it out either. Then I called him out on his calling winners and scores without going against the spread. ANYBODY can go 80% picking winners and losers. Isn’t that why VEGAS has a line. UF is better than UT so I can pick UF and be a COLLEGE FOOTBALL GOD TOO? HAHAHA. After last night’s game is UGA now a top 10 team, or are USC, AU, Ole MISS, and OKIE ST just average? JEFF SCHULTZ ask T. BlowHart what he thinks.
Pi$$onaDawg
September 25th, 2009
12:49 pm
TOSS F.L.W. made home and building BLEND with what was around them. I still love the Chaple at the Fla. Church with his classic stainglass design in the amber, gold, and drown earth tones. Portman sees the world different the Frank for SURE. John seems to like the Egyptian attitude. MAKE IT BIG, MAKE IT STANDOUT, and MAKE YOUR NAME.
Pi$$onaDawg
September 25th, 2009
12:54 pm
TOSS I was lucky to have parents with money. I don’t (as I think you can tell) have all that much class. I run a trucking business. I do know what fork to use and what glass is for what drink. I am a REDNECK TECH FAN. DAD was the Tech grad. I went to some other Colleges in Georgia. NGC and later KSU.
The Other St. Simons
September 25th, 2009
1:20 pm
I was accepted early to tech and had all intentions of going, but Athens won. Chicks were hotter. Really.
dan
September 25th, 2009
1:24 pm
Preseason polls are about one thing only: Making money. Period.
By ranking teams based on what they did last year, the networks can market certain matchups and increase ratings. Preseason polls will never go away because they generate too much money. If they did away with the polls, numerous publications would go out of business, and that’s just not going to happen. The fact that SPORTS WRITERS have so much pull in this system shows you how rigged this game is and how much pull the media has over college football.
KJ
September 25th, 2009
1:44 pm
“Teams that have beat teams head-to-head are nine spots behind them.”
LOL, so I guess Paul thinks that App. State should have been ranked ahead of Michigan.
“USMA “ARMY” backed out on us last minute too.”
LOLx2, nice try chump, you just subbed one cupcake for another.
Pi$$onaDawg
September 25th, 2009
1:47 pm
Not being mean TOSS, but getting laid by young P is easy. You live on SSI, SI, JI ,and not far from Savannah? The Hot Chick factor is Nill. We arrived in Athens in our Uniforms. The UGA girls had no problem ditching and going to party with us. Getting GOOD PUDDING is like poker. You fake the best hand, you have the best hand, or you fold, but in the end you have to live with the hand you played. I would rather fake and play a few hands when I was young, but I would not go all in. I prefer to play a sure hand on a sure bet. 18-24 year old chicks are not a sure hand or a sure bet.
Hillbilly Deluxe
September 25th, 2009
1:54 pm
Early season polls exist only to sell magazines and generate listeners/viewers for TV and radio shows. Most of the people who vote on these polls haven’t even seen most of the teams they are voting on anyway. If they are going to have polls, they shouldn’t even have the first one until week 5 or 6. That would make things a little more realistic and an added bonus is, by then we would have forgotten that USC loses early every year and we wouldn’t have to listen to ESPN’s constant cheerleading for how they are always the best in the country no matter how many losses they have.
BromoDawg
September 25th, 2009
2:38 pm
TV needs the polls to hype the match-ups. It’s a lot more appealing to hear “South Carolina beat #4 Ole Miss” than a vanilla “South Carolina beat Ole Miss.” No one outside the two states would really care. Rankings make it fun. Problem is the first ranking comes out way too early in the pre-season camps and not closer to the first week. Again, for the sake of TV promoting the game. So, injuries do not get factored into the rankings. Polls have been the lifeblood of college football for several decades. They aren’t perfect, but I still love ‘em.
RxDawg
September 25th, 2009
4:18 pm
Bah, they’re good for the game. BUT, the ones who make those polls shouldn’t be afraid to change their votes up the following week based on performances. They also shouldn’t be afraid to put a team with more losses and a dificult schedule over a team with no loses and an easy schedule.
Cautiously Optimistic
September 25th, 2009
6:09 pm
Let me ask this, do the sports writers watch ALL the games? I dont think so, they probably watch the highlights just like most everyone else. Too many games to be able to watch all of them. I haven’t been able to watch Ole Miss util thur. night and after hearing all the hype since last year in my head I believed they were the better team, my gut told me different. Point is I picked them to win based on the polls. Very missleading. My gut said they were not that good but since they were ranked so high I couldn’t pick against them on my online pics. I figured they had to be ranked up there for a reason. But without seeing them in action that was all I had to go by. I agree that the polls should wait until about the 3rd to 4th week.
Richard Gawlowski
September 25th, 2009
9:03 pm
I agree wholeheartedly. Pre- and early season polls are unsubstantiated and, therefore, inaccurate. They damage the chances of teams who are not ranked at the season start, however, because it is hard for a team to jump 25 spots, even if record and play demonstrate an entitlement to play in BCS title game. Just as a for instance, where does Arizona State deserve to be ranked now? Nowhere. If it beats UGA this week? While unlikely, one would think a top 25 ranking for such a win on the road would be automatic. We know, though, that nothing is automatic.
Pi$$onaDawg
September 25th, 2009
10:07 pm
South Carolina beating the Rebels is like Mike Vick’s dogs chewing off his legs. HHAHAHAHAHAA The SEC has what great team? MEDIA , MEDIA please tell me who in the SEC is the BEST TEAM IN THE LAND. HAHAHAHAHA. I think it is KENTUCKY, no, no, it is Vandy, no, no, it is AUBURN for sure. The poor boys from PARKVIEW just got home from playing BAMA last week. Parkview made money but they are tired. Parkview D had to play all 4 quarters against BAMA to make it a game.
Denver Dog
September 25th, 2009
11:30 pm
The polls are stuipid, right? Well here is why they are not. Money, Every year, Ohio State, USC, Penn State, Michigan, Texas, Ok and then the “BCS BUSTERS” who don’t play anyone. blah blah blah
You see the polls set the media’s darlings up for big time post season bowls etc. Look at Ole Miss, they had a couple of good games and they go on the road and lose, BYU, Utah, UGA, Tech, USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma, the list goes on and on. The problem is my first statement. The polls set the media’s darlings up for big time post season polls.
I thought maybe they should’nt do them until the first of October. How would that look now? The darlings, though not at the top, are close to the top, after they have played and lost one game, the only one they will play all year.
Wait til Octoboer, then let’s see how that top 25 looks
chazzo
September 26th, 2009
8:08 am
Amen. But as long as there are gullible fans, there is money to be made in early polling. BYU got jacked way up there. They always have to vote in the darlings and put in the Cinderellas. They always have to bump a team or two up prior to a match up to create drama before a game to sell cars, cleaning products, beer and alka seltzer. Who would have given a flip about FSU and BYU outside of those two schools faithful, if the drama of a resurrected program had not been packaged up for us?
Pitbull
September 26th, 2009
12:10 pm
It’s not where you are ranked at the beginning of the season. It is where you are ranked at the end of the season that matters. – Vince Dooley
Eric C.
September 26th, 2009
12:41 pm
Frankly Jeff, there is so much parity now…who really knows what team is #1 or #21 at anytime of the year. Moreover, putting Paul Johnson’s quote in another context just further reinforces the belief that coaches don’t put much effort into the polls when they really do matter in the last few weeks of the year.
Cosmo
September 27th, 2009
12:13 pm
Nicely said. Early polls are so arbitrary and lack basis for much of the votes. They are guesses really. This is especially emphasized by the polls that use raw data like Sagarin’s Computer Polls. Compare last week to this week. Miami Jumped to # 2 last week and FSU #3. Then this week UM is #15 and FSU is #24. In short, as much as all the “experts” want to think they know about football; there is insufficient data to draw meaningful conclusions until game 5 or 6.
superDawg
September 27th, 2009
7:19 pm
Nice photo of pj.they should have had his free hot dog ready on time.
Cosmo
September 27th, 2009
11:21 pm
“Experts” agree:
“It’s been incredibly difficult [to vote] because our knowledge changes from one week to the next,” said Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesmen. “Miami’s great, Miami gets blown out. Florida State blows out Top 25 BYU on the road, then loses to an unranked team at home.”
Globals
October 3rd, 2009
6:08 am
all good things
dawes
October 8th, 2009
6:58 pm
i take the georgia bulldogs over georgia tech over the long one georgia tech sinks