Braves may be forced to trade Vazquez
Javier Vazquez threw another gem Wednesday night in Houston.
Of all the things that didn’t work out as planned for the Braves this season, we’ve known a for a while now that Javier Vazquez isn’t one of them. What we don’t know is: Where do they go from here?
Or maybe the better question is: Where does Vazquez go from here?
The ripple effect of the contracts the Braves gave pitchers Derek Lowe (four years, $60 million) and Kenshin Kawakami (three years, $23 million) is going to be felt this off-season. General manager Frank Wren has some options but he’s also somewhat painted into a corner. The chances of trading either Lowe or Kawakami are minimal because of the contracts. So that’s two starters. Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are young and good and cheap. That’s two more starters. That leaves Vazquez and Tim Hudson for one spot in a five-man rotation.
See where we’re going with this?
Hudson has an expensive option at $12 million. But we also know that if he can come back next season as strong as he has shown in two recent starts, he’s one of the top pitchers on the staff. Vazquez is going into the final year of his contract at $11.5 million. If you’ve always wondered why his name keeps coming up in trade talks, that’s why. The Braves can’t keep everybody, not merely because of numbers but because of dollars. If you add Lowe, Kawakami, Hudson and Vazquez, that’s about $45.2 million for four pitchers, nearly half the team’s payroll (approximately $97 million).
These are the options:
1) Try to trade Lowe or Kawakami (Kawakami is more likely, and the Braves would have to pick up some of his payroll, which kind of defeats the purpose of the trade to begin with).
2) Move Kawakami to the bullpen. The problem is this doesn’t reduce payroll and it creates a $6.7 million pitcher middle reliever.
3) Release Hudson. And there possibly goes the ace of the staff.
4) Trade Vazquez. And there goes possibly the current ace of the staff. (Check out the numbers below.)
Not easy, is it? This problem wouldn’t exist if not for the Lowe’s and Kawakami’s contracts, but now the Braves will have to deal with it.
No poll on this. I figured everybody would vote, “Trade Kawakami,” and I just don’t know how realistic that is. So give me your thoughts.
Braves starters this season
Pitcher GS W-L ERA IP BB KO
Javier Vazquez 28 12-9 3.06 188.1 40 208
Jair Jurrjens 29 10-10 2.93 178.0 64 126
Derek Lowe 29 13-9 4.36 171.1 52 92
Kenshin Kawakami 27 7-11 4.02 145.2 55 99
Tommy Hanson 16 9-3 3.07 93.2 36 78
Kris Medlen 4 3-5 4.68 57.2 28 67
Jo-Jo Reyes 5 0-2 7.00 27 13 21
Tim Hudson 2 1-0 2.19 12.1 4 11
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334 comments Add your comment
jake
September 9th, 2009
10:33 pm
Well, Bobby butchered another game by relieving Hanson with Soriano tonight. Joe Simpson was right: Hanson deserved a shot at finishing the game. He’d retired seven in a row and was throwing 95 mph in the 8th.
Conclusion? Time for Bobby’s retirement party, whether he wants to go or not. Then let the new manager and Wren figured out the personnel.
Dan Kolb
September 9th, 2009
10:44 pm
We might need a closer, right? I’m available!! Call me anytime, day or night . . I’m not busy . . .
BobbyCox
September 9th, 2009
10:45 pm
OK, OK, I’ve got the farm where I want it and I’m looking forward to my retirement party. Actually, for you out there that did’nt suspect(or know) it, I have been retired for about seven years now, but the pay was too good to pass up, so I just sat around the dugout eating peanuts, etc. Besides I had to stay around long enough to get the “game toss” record. Boy will I be glad to finally get this over with. Any other manager would have been out on his a@@ long before now but those pictures I have sure came in handy! I’ll go ahead and burn them at the end of the season.
Cowboy Jim
September 9th, 2009
10:47 pm
Yep, picking his nose during the interview. What a joke this guy is. Fire him now.
Joe
September 9th, 2009
10:50 pm
Trade Chipper Jones
Release Greg Norton
Trade Rafael Soriano
Trade Yunel Escobar
Trade Mike Gonzales
Trade Tim Hudson
Fire Bobby Cox
Steve
September 9th, 2009
10:56 pm
Go to a six man rotation – they do it in Japan. We would have the best in baseball, fresher arms at the end of the season, and if you make the playoffs, you basically go to a 3 man rotation, with your other 3 starters coming in to close out the games. Worth a thought anyway.
Also, for anyone’s info., after April, Kawakami has had great stuff, and a very good era – much better than Lowe’s.
stew
September 9th, 2009
11:07 pm
We need a righty power bat. There are none. Rotation of Vasquez/JJ/Hanson/Huddy is the best in baseball. Try to extend Vasquez and Huddy. Shortly Heyward/Freddie/Cody (he has to improve his defense and batting average) should be ready. Diaz and Prado (the Lemmer he is not) are challenged defensively. There are no 30 homer righty bats.
Bruce Sutter
September 9th, 2009
11:29 pm
I was a pretty good closer and I didn’t have a blazing fastball.
Dennis Eckersly
September 9th, 2009
11:30 pm
I was a pretty good closer and I didn’t have a blazing fastball
rufues
September 9th, 2009
11:55 pm
Bobby did it again blow another game, and in the interview he gave after the game, he said that Tommy Hanson just couldn’t go any further, When he took the ball from Hanson, the expression Tommy had, he’s going to blow my game.
Bobby did just that lost another game. unbelievable as it may seem, it’s become a trade mark of the Atlanta Brave, they’ll blow it in the 8th or 9th inning. Mr. Cox keeps using the same old arms time after time. The whole team look like a pathic beaten team. Signing Derek Lowe to 4 years $60 million dollar is one of many idiotic things the Braves front office has done..
Next, they’ll still keeping Bobby, next year to screw up another year, and repeat another non-productive year. If the front office really care about the fans they would get rid of Cox, as soon as possible. The Braves lack ambition, and a desire to win, being happy with third place.
Everyone know it’s a long season and they need to rest, the players. But Cox doesn’t the opposed way having sound bodies who can play sitting on the bench, keeps playing broken down Chipper, who looks like he’s on his last leg.
The Braves are a frustrating team, with very frustrating outcomes.
Ed-Covington
September 10th, 2009
12:35 am
I think to satisfy everyone on this blog we should trade BobbyC & GNorton to the Cards For TonyLa and AlbertP. I’m sure StL would make that trade in a second.
Seriously, I have been a big Chipper & McCann fan in the past, but these past few weeks have been awful. In the middle of a pennant race, big-time players (see AlbertP, Ryan Howard, etc.) step up, not step off. Their lack of production has been much more significant to the Bravos missing the post season than Bobby Cox or Greg Norton.
Ed-Covington
September 10th, 2009
12:42 am
About the pitching, trade Lowe & Kawakami; even if it means eating some salary on the outrageous contracts Wren signed them to. Get some power bats ’til Heyward % other help gets here in 2011.
Thought: Wgat if Heyward succeeds NEXT year in Atlanta, Shaeffer comes back strong, McCann & Chipper have strong years LaRoche re-signs and a couple of others emerge ( Brandon Jones, Brian Barton, Blanco?)? This time next year will we be blogging about too much offense?
ozzie
September 10th, 2009
1:19 am
Chipper’s days batting third or above 5th for that matter are over.
McCann’s days hitting clean up are over.
Bobby will be gone this winter and a winning line up card will be built hopefully with Holliday, Bay or Adrian Gonzales batting 4th.
Book it.
Furmanisanidiot
September 10th, 2009
9:31 am
It does not matter who is on our pitching staff as long as Bobby is in the dugout…we will not make the post season again. It his personal goal to continue bad decisions that keep us from baseball in october.
Dan
September 10th, 2009
9:33 am
If the Braves want to improve in 2010, they should do the following: Keep the current starting pitching staff in place including signing Hudson for 2010. Try to sign La Roche to a 2-yr deal until Freeman is ready. Trade the following players: Johnson, Acosta, Norton, Anderson, Logan, Carlyle and Soriano. Actively go after a RH Power Hitting Outfielder adn backfill any open slots through promotion of youngsters from the minor leagues! What do you think?
Trey
September 10th, 2009
10:54 am
Steve, why should we go to a six man rotation just because Japan does it? They should go to our five man rotation, because baseball is an American sport. No to the six man rotation.
everyoneiscrazy
September 10th, 2009
12:14 pm
I think we first need to look at Vasquez’s career numbers. He is a fly ball pitcher that gives up a TON of HR’s. For some reason that has not happened this year. He is on the last year of his contract and most likely will not have a repeat of this year. He is great trade bait and will give you the most return on investment.
Clear and simple choice. Trade Vazquez, get some young talent, and resign huddy to a 3 year deal.
dingilusberrius
September 10th, 2009
12:23 pm
Frank Wren is terrible. Release Kawakami.
Trey
September 10th, 2009
1:24 pm
Steve, the only difference between five and six man rotations is the extra day causing them to have less chances to winning at least 15 games.
Frankie Knuckles
September 10th, 2009
1:47 pm
Eat threee million of Lowe’s contract and keep them both. Heck, I’d throw in a prospect to move that contract. Chipper and Lowe will destroy this team if they both perform next year like they have this year. Move Lowe. But, have no fear, I have a good source that tells me Frank is working on extactly that. That sources name: Common Sense.
Trey
September 10th, 2009
2:54 pm
Frankie, I doubt Chipper will perform as poorly. I just think he had an off year, because Chipper’s age would not have shown so quickly from last year and the beginning of this year to now. He was performing well, until one day and went on that long slump. I doubt his age has anything to do with that.
DMac
September 10th, 2009
3:17 pm
Hudson is Mike Hampton reincarnated. He’s never going to amount to anything and the Braves need to dump him a.s.a.p.
DMac
September 10th, 2009
3:20 pm
Thank you Braves Fan for your 10:01 post! It’s what I’ve been saying for years.
DMac
September 10th, 2009
3:27 pm
I’ve been a fan since they came to Atlanta, but this year I just had to stop watching them. I still read about them online, but I just refuse to waste my time watching a team with a manager like Bobby Cox who continues to make stupid move, after stupid move. When will the sportswriters of Atlanta join the fans in calling for his retirement, be it voluntary or forced? You guys are really letting us down.
DMac
September 10th, 2009
3:30 pm
visit pbcfaotbc.com and join the movement. That’s Pack Bobby Cox’s Fat Ass Off To Bartow County).com
Ken Stallings
September 10th, 2009
3:37 pm
Jeff, your entire column was devoted to payroll. Perhaps that is insightful, but if that is the top issue in the off season then the Braves are doomed to mediocrity and if so they might as well trade Chipper Jones before Vasquez because the Braves are not going to sniff the post season in Chipper’s remaining career!
The Braves need to expand the payroll. Their farm system doesn’t have the power bats necessary to put this team over the top. Chipper is on the ebb.
I would not trade Vasquez for one simple reason. It is far easier to find free agent position players than starting pitchers.
The Braves need to keep the starting lineup for next season intact based entirely upon talent. Kawakami did not earn a slot in next year’s five man rotation. That should be Lowe, Hudson, Hanson, Vasquez, and Jurgens.
The Braves can win with that lineup and with Kawakami in the bullpen perhaps Bobby can actually avoid killing his setup man and closer next season! That’s Bobby’s area to work on for next season. He has to let his starters go longer into the game and protect his bullpen better than he did this year. That should be the first item on discussion between Bobby and Frank Wren.
The Braves must resist the urge to trade Vasquez for one of the two power bats they desperately need. It may seem enticing to trade him for one and bring the other up from the farm system. Pitchers have an easier time coming up from AA and position players need to be brought up more carefully.
The way I see it, $25 million to get those two bats off the free agency wire is a good investment. Heck, the gate from post season will pay for $6 million that by itself — (40,000 times $25 times even six games). Add in the television revenue and it does even more. And it wouldn’t hurt the front office to anticipate that further playoff frustrations are eventually going to reduce daily gate by $25 million plus on its own!
Of course, baseball’s lack of a commissioner is the real problem here. The Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Dodgers with their increased gate and TV renevues are turning the sport into MLB and AAAA! It won’t last forever and sooner than later the owners need to get some common sense into the theme and realize we cannot have damn near every World Series feature these teams. When does Kansas City and Pittsburgh make post season again?
Blauser
September 10th, 2009
4:07 pm
Pick up Hudson. Keep everyone, but everyone’s available. Either run out half your payroll with starting pitching and filled with youngsters in the field, or make that trade that improves the club. The Braves are in good shape when the market shapes up. Maybe they should trade two starters and find another one!
TheManMike
September 10th, 2009
4:22 pm
Don’t trade JV – He’s one of the best pitchers in the league now. Tim Hudson would probably do well in another city and deserves the chance to be an Ace. Just won’t happen with JV in town – He’s our Ace right now no matter how you twist it. Tommy H and JV rock. I like KK next year, one year deep in this new league – he will do much better; and with a great bat his W-L will be better.
smitty
September 10th, 2009
4:31 pm
Kawakami is not as bad as people make him out to be… if he got run support he’d have a lot more wins. I think think he’ll be much better next year anyways. What we get in return is a LOT more important that who we trade. We need a big bat or 8 in the worst way!
bravos4life
September 10th, 2009
4:35 pm
They will not have to trade any of them. The will move KK to the bulpen becasue we will lose maybe both Gonzo and Soriano with his inflated $6M contract. Both will be a type A free agent and we should get solid draft picks when they sign some where else. Losing both of them will allow us to keep both Huddy and Javey and move KK to the pen. I HOPE!!
Braves may be forced to trade Vazquez | JIBBLY’S SPORTS EMPORIUM
September 10th, 2009
6:15 pm
[...] Tim Hudson has an expensive option at $12 million. But we also know that if he can come back next season as strong as he has shown in two recent starts, he’s one of the top pitchers on the Braves staff. Javier Vazquez is going into the final year of his contract at $11.5 million. If you’ve always wondered why his name keeps coming up in trade talks, that’s why. The Braves can’t keep everybody, not merely because of numbers but because of dollars. If you add Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, Hudson and Vazquez, that’s about $45.2 million for four pitchers, nearly half the team’s payroll (approximately $97 million). – Atlanta Journal-Constitution Read complete story here. [...]
Shawn Carpenter
September 10th, 2009
7:20 pm
Sooo i think everyone is missing the point. If our pitching isn’t the problem then its our run production. If we have a surplus of pitching we A trade for a bat like a number 4-5 hitter, B we release someone and make room for a big bat in the offseason, or C. We trade pitching for prospects and Sign someone on the market, that isn’t GA or Junior. More like a 7-9 million a year guy with production and consistency. oh another thing every forgets is that Gonzo and Soriano’s contracts are up too. prolly will resing Gonzo and let soriano go maybe even trade one of out studs like javy for a Closer, and a AA prospect. Don’t even think about using moylan as a closer. keep him in the 8th or 7th plus a DP man in situations. it will all work out for the best. Also we have Medlin which could be an interesting trade offer as well also a great 6-7 inning man as he showed…Chipper will be back next year. I hope. Got alot of love for him.
OKGA
September 10th, 2009
7:22 pm
Whatever happens, the possible trade of Vasquez can’t simply be a salary dump. They need to get a decent hitter. Wren has been creative before, when he needed to be, so I just hope he can do it again.
I really don’t see any team wanting to trade for Kawakami; Braves might as well be resigned to just keep him.
w.g.
September 10th, 2009
10:36 pm
JV is the only logical choice to go. His numbers are great but he is just a 500 pitcher in his career. The main reason has alway been his usual 1 bad inning per game and usless he has tremendous run support early in a game (and sometimes even this doesn’t help) if teams stay close, he can be beaten. Letting Hudson go would be a huge mistake and it would be in the Braves best interest to explore an extension (maybe even at a little less money) given his excellent winning percentage over the years.
mikeguam
September 11th, 2009
12:11 am
release hudson, he hasn’t pitched for sometime now. u can’t trade vazquez he’s been the most consistent & effective starter since the start of the season. which would u rather have injury free & consistent or injury proned & ineffective.
Serge
September 11th, 2009
12:27 am
Who cares if picking up “some” of KKs contract defeats the purpose? The purpose should be keeping our best players.
Vazquez>KK no doubt.
Blake
September 11th, 2009
12:57 am
What about moving Kawakami to the bullpen as the closer? Soriano’s contract is up at the end of the year and if I am not mistaken he makes 6 mil a year?? The math adds up plus you have Kawakami as a backup plan if someone gets injured (and Gonzalez can close).
rick
September 11th, 2009
4:14 am
KK seems to step it up against better pitchers . I’d trade Lowe there are some big market teams that could use him . Angels if they dont resign Lackey , Yankees , Boston . Only problem you have with trading Javy is he CANT be traded West he has it in his contract . So i’d say trade Lowe for prospects and see if we pick up Huddy’s option if we can go 4 years with 1st 2 years being less or incentive driven to make it up .
Jim Michaels
September 11th, 2009
7:24 am
When will all of the stupid sign and trade or release moves stop? The Braves sign Javy and now can’t keep him? Sounds like the JD Drew deal? Remember JD? The Braves GAVE AWAY Adam Wainwright for a one-year rental player. Stupid. And while we are speaking stupidly, let’s talked about Mark Teixeria. Tex? Not even a full-season of a rental and the Braves simply gave up two starting pitchers and a starting SS to the Texas Rangers who are battling for a playoff spot. The Braves traded Adam LaRoche only to re-aquire him two seasons later! Why sign a free agent or trade for a free agent? Let’s just play the kids in the minor leagues. At least we can see them play in Atlanta for several seasons before losing them to free agency. Oh, enjoy Tommy Hansen while you can…..Hansen will be gone in the blink of a free agent year coming soon!
Don
September 11th, 2009
9:56 am
You miss two main points.
(1) We do not have too much pitching. Under Cox and McDowell, one of more of the starters will likely go down with injuiries.
(2) The salary problem is the fact that we have given an aging, injury prone, 3rd baseman who is already just a part time player, is not a good defensive 3rd baseman, and is now having troble hitting a 90 mph fast ball – a huge contract for 3 more years.
Tom Br
September 11th, 2009
10:24 am
This is what would happen in my ideal world. Braves would eat part of Kawakami’s salary and dump him on any team that would accept. They would relese and/or trade Kelly Johnson and Greg Norton. Let Hudson and Garrett Anderson walk. Package a blockbuster trade to the Padres for Adrian Gonzelez. You could package Escobar and LaRoche in the deal. Keep Heyward,Freeman, and Hanson. Sign free agent Jason Bay (or Vladamir Guererro)
Lineup:
McClouth
Prado
A. Gonzalez
Bay
McCann
C. Jones
Diaz/Church
Conrad
Pitcher
Pitching Rotation
1. Vazquez
2. Lowe
3. Jurrjens
4. Hanson
5. Medlen (solid 5th man)
I think with this solution you’d pretty much have to drain the farm, but you’d still have a legitamate rotation and a much more deadly line-up.
Tom Br
September 11th, 2009
10:28 am
and Don… that washed up third basemen you’re describing actually took a discount to extend with the Braves. Also, he dedicated his entire career to the organization. Am I forgeting something…? Oh yeah, he’s one of the three best switch-hitters of all time… I think you might want to cut him some slack. I’d much rather fix our problems in left and right before I traded Larry
LivinInAL
September 11th, 2009
11:32 am
I think there will be market for KK, had the Braves offered some run support he could easily have a good win loss record. Might have to eat a couple mil of his salary, but I still don’t seen how you get the “Big Bat” needed for him. We do need some help in the bullpen, who should be resigned Gonzo or Soriano?
Escobar Rocks
September 11th, 2009
12:07 pm
I guess I am in the minority here but I think Vazquez should be traded IF they can get a good young 3B prospect for him. I am talking about a Matt Gamel type of player…..not a scrub. Vazquez has a long history of being very inconsistent from year to year….and of being a bad “big game” pitcher. The best pitcher to trade would be Lowe but I don’t think any team would be willing to take on his contract. I actually love KK and don’t think he should be going anywhere…..the more crucial the situation this year, the better he pitched. He has been an above average pitcher this year and I think he will be even better next year. It will be a mistake to trade him when he has a reasonable contract for the next couple of years. I love Huddy and don’t think he should be going anywhere. Obviously, JJ and Hanson aren’t going anywhere. So, to me, it boils down to either Huddy or Vazquez leaving. Vazquez will have much more trade value so trade him…and have a starting rotation of:
Hudson
Jurrjens
Lowe
Hanson
KK
Use the extra money to sign a power hitting left fielder.
alan
September 11th, 2009
12:10 pm
A power pitcher like Javi is necessary for the balance of the staff. Kawakami at his price is marketable to several teams desperate for starting pitching–chicago cubs,twins, brewers, angels, mets. lowe, as a sinker baller, might be perfect for the cubs or mets. The real problem is the bullpen which is poorly used and lacks consistency and depth. Moylan is no more than a situational matchup guy, not a 7th inning setup. Gonzo is wild high too often and can’t consistently throw strikes when he needs to.
Escobar Rocks
September 11th, 2009
12:17 pm
TomBR, you do realize that the lineup you proposed includes 2 second basemen and no shortstops. Brooks Conrad is a career minor leaguer…he will not be on the starting roster of any team. The Braves would be out of their minds to trade Escobar – he should be one of their “untouchables”. Also, LaRoche can’t be traded…he is a free agent. And finally, you are really dreaming if you think that the Braves could trade for Adrian Gonzalez and not include some combination of Hanson, Jurrjens, Freeman and Heyward. It would probably take either Hanson or Heyward PLUS either Jurrjens or Freeman to get him. AGonz is one of the best players in MLB, it would take a TON to get him.
UGA ALL THE WAY
September 11th, 2009
12:27 pm
As much as i hate to say it, i would have to say goodbye Hudson. Great pitcher but if he’s the ACE trying to come back, why worry bout that when you got an ACE thats young and doing GREAT right now????
Tokyo Tom
September 11th, 2009
1:37 pm
Who’s to say that KK will not return to Japan after this season? The dollar has devalued over 10% since he signed the contract so, in Japanese Yen, he has taken a beating (and no sign that the dollar will stabilize, let alone gain invalue in the near term). Loss of earning power + living away from home + playing for a mid level team + national hero/cult status back home = walk away from the Braves and return to the JBL. Maybe my suck-a$$ Tokyo Swallows will pony up enough yen to get him to return to Japan.
I don’t want KK to leave because he had a good season but, with six quality starters along with Medlin waiting in the wings, it might be easier & more beneficial to encourage KK to return to Japan than trading Vasquez.
With the remaining line up of Hudson, Lowe, Vasquez, Jurgens, and Hanson, the question becomes: Who is the #5 starter?
w.g.
September 11th, 2009
1:46 pm
You guys are all nuts. Heyward???? As a long time Braves fan, the 2 most touted minor leaguers to come along in the past 10 years were (CAN’T MISS)Lombard and Betemit. Both of whom missed big time. Frenchy and McCann both snuck up on everyone (except the front office) and were not nearly as highly rated at the other 2 I mentioned. Wait for Lombard and Freeman to get here and produce first. As regards to Chipper, I didn’t read any of this crap the last 2 years when he was going strong. Cut a Hall of Famer a little slack, he isn’t the only 1 not producing. And Trading Escobar, probably the best shortstop in the league right now in a package for AG or the Padres. You are all nuts. We gave up 1 shortstop to the Rangers and there is nobady coming up to replace his .400 with RISP in the near future. Imagine how high it could be if Chipper and McCann start getting on base a little more. and one more thing, how stupid do you think other GMs are that they will give up big name player for Braves Castaways. You are all starting to sound like Red Sox and Yankee Fans who think their crap is attractive for everyone else but them.
Braves Starting Pitchers… Who to Trade?
September 11th, 2009
2:00 pm
[...] Rosenthal pointed out this dilemma earlier this week, and Jeff Schultz of the AJC is the latest to point it out. In both cases they consider only trading either Hudson or Vazquez, reasoning that Derek Lowe and [...]