Falcons show why expectations should be tempered
I'm sure you recognize the face on the cover of Sports Illustrated's NFL preview issue, which says something about expectation level.
It was easy to forget, amid the defensive ruin and Charles Dimry flashbacks, that the Falcons actually won an exhibition game the other night against San Diego.
Thomas Dimitroff barely noticed.
“The third preseason game is very important in terms of setting a tone,” the Falcons’ general manager said. “That’s what was unfortunate about that game.”
Game 4 wasn’t much better. The Falcons lost to Baltimore on Thursday night, 20-3. The preseason reaffirmed what we already knew: This team will go as far as Matt Ryan and the offense carry them, because it won’t be the defense.
It’s easy to get drunk off one great season. The Falcons went 11-5 last season. Unexpected 11-win seasons lead to meteoric expectation levels. Some now believe 11 wins is the standard, rather than partly the residue of overachievement and a soft schedule.
But there was a lesson learned the other night. Several players didn’t perform to the levels that Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith had hoped. And by perform, we’re not referring to talent, but focus and effort. Those are two things the Falcons never lacked last season.
Want to see how quickly 11-5 turns into 5-11? This is the NFL. Start to think you’re better than you really are and watch how quickly the bottom falls out. That won’t play with Smith, who coached tough and physical defenses in Jacksonville. It certainly won’t play with Dimitroff, who came from an organization, New England, where the sum almost always exceeded the seeming value of the parts.
Baltimore fullback Jason Cook burns Chris Houston for a touchdown catch, another bad sign for the defense. (Curtis Compton/ccompton@ajc.com)
Asked what he was looking for in the team’s final dress rehearsal, Dimitroff didn’t hesitate: “I really want to see the second- and third-team players rise up. I want them to go into this with an element of poise. I want them to show that no matter where they are on the depth chart, they need to produce and they need to play with a sense of urgency. I’m speaking more of the defense.”
He also could have been speaking of the No. 1 defense. There are problems. Ten of the 11 starters were on the field in the first quarter — John Abraham being the notable exception — when the defense was schooled by the Ravens’ third-string quarterback, John Beck. Five days after San Diego backup Billy Volek (7-for-9, 102 yards, one touchdown) had a 150.9 quarterback rating against them, Beck engineered a 14-play, eight-minute, 91-yard touchdown drive on the Ravens’ first possession. That set the tone for the night.
Beck went 5-for-5 for 50 yards and a touchdown. (Rating: 147.9) I’m sure it was a very proud moment for Mr. and Mrs. Beck.
Dimitroff wants what he saw in New England — tough, physical, smart defensive players. The Falcons may get there eventually, but that’s not the team they have now.
Drawing conclusions from exhibitions always is risky. Certainly, two national publications look at the Falcons’ offense and expect that to translate to wins. Sporting News, the same outlet that projected a 1-15 record last season, this year predicts a run to the NFC title game. Sports Illustrated just put Ryan on the cover of its NFL preview issue, and picks Atlanta to win the NFC South (but lose in the first round to Green Bay).
A year ago at this time, most tabbed Atlanta to finish any where from last place to possibly having a chance to win six games (only if everything went right and Smith didn’t suddenly decide in Week 3 that he wanted to coach Arkansas). We got so much more than that.
Now expectations might be out of balance in the other direction. But if things go terribly wrong, at least we’ll know why.
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208 comments Add your comment
Chuck Clausen
September 6th, 2009
6:40 am
he Falcons are going to be playing a tougher schedule, with a slightly better offense and a defense which is not a good as last year. 9 wins would be a great season and 7 or 8 are more realistic. In the long run shedding some aging defenders is going to be a great move, keeping them might have helped this year because of the important of leadership. But the older players they got rid of were not performing at level which is going to get us to the Super Bowl. Right now our 3rd down pass defense is about as bad as I think I have ever seen, that may have been because the defensive staff didn’t want to show anything in the preseason or that they have been caught with a bunch of defensive backs which can’t cover. Our Falcons, particularly the offensive line, are well coached; Mike and Thomas will both make good long term decisions. On defense we might have taken step back so the in the long run we can take 2 steps forward. It’s going to take a great coaching job to get 9 wins, but I think we have a great coach, so we have a chance for 9 wins.
BamaBirDawg
September 6th, 2009
10:50 am
Everyone likes to evoke the name of the old ‘Grits Blitz’. The Falcons do hold the record for fewest points allowed over a 14 game season. But as I recall, the blitz packages that earned this nickname and that record, were inspired by having an offense that was nearly incapable of scoring more than a single TD per game. The D was therefore forced to carry the load. And they did… all the way into the record books.
If the preseason is any indication, it will be just the opposite in 2009, with the offense having to score a mountain of points just to stay ahead of their opponents who should be able to move… pretty much at will. It reduces down to simply being able to score more than the other guys… and there’s no reason, barring injury or arrest, that this can’t be done. Then all we’ll need is a new tricky nick for the highest scoring record over a single, 16 game season.
Truth
September 6th, 2009
10:52 am
hey
Bad News
September 6th, 2009
12:07 pm
Thomas Dimitroff is making Rich McKay look like a wizzard. Think about it. Name one single player that he has cut, is on a losing organization:
Foxworth…………… Ravens
Boley…………… Giants
Brooking………… Cowboys
Vick……………. Eagles
Milloy………….. Seahawks
That just goes to show that he doesn’t know what he is doing. If you cut a player, they should be useless assets, but according to the “REAL” GMs, they are signed to make a contribution on WINNING organizations.
Signing Tony Gonzalez looks good on paper, but any arm chair qb could have made that move, based on Tony’s past success, but it was at the wrong time.
You don’t sign an aging veteran on a team that has a horrible defense that is being restructured. This defense is clearly 2-3 years at best, from becoming a decent one. Tony is 2-3 years away from retirement, so they will be in the same situation, once the defense becomes respectible.
A “REAL” GM would have save that number 2 draft pick and selected a tight end in the draft that can grow with the organization and spend the money that will be paid to Tony on some quality defensive players.
I keep hearing you people in “denial” & “delusional” talking about you can win with offensive shoot outs. That’s a big fairy tale, I think Dan Fouts and the Chargers already tried that and they forgot one thing – the offense can’t win without defense and even if it was true the Falcons are far from competing with the likes of New England offense.
The difference between the other high powered offenses in the NFL is that they actually have good defenses, which equates to them scoring and containing your offense.
Wishful thinking guys, but it’s not going to work. If Turner, White or Abraham gets hurt – this team is TOAST.
2007 Will repeat it’s self and there won’t be Vick or DJ to blame this time around
Brent S.
September 6th, 2009
7:16 pm
Bad news, you just hate the Falcons…by the way, you say Dallas is a “winning” organization? How come they haven’t won a play-off game in 12 years?
Bad News
September 6th, 2009
7:57 pm
Brent Last time I checked the Cowboys have 4 rings & the Falcons have zero.
What does hate have to do with facts?
Big Ray
September 7th, 2009
7:52 am
Vick Supporter,
Seriously. Why do y’all keep showing up here? You say the people here are racist and all hate Vick. Well, that’s wrong to begin with. I never hated Vick, and several others here don’t either. You also say we have nothing to talk about but Vick, and that it’s funny that we can’t stop talking about him. That’s not true of everyone either. What usually happens is somebody like Falcon Sorry or Bad News gets it started by pumping up Vick, and bashing Ryan.
Bad News sounds just like Vick Supporter 2, but who cares. What puzzles me is why in the hell y’all even bother showing up on ANY Atlanta Falcons blogs when you clearly don’t like the Falcons or their fans. If you ask me, that’s a hell of a lot funnier than Falcon fans talking about a former Falcon player.
Bad News,
The only person who ever made Rich Mckay look like a wizard was Tony Dungy. Those good Tampa Bay teams were more Dungy’s doing than anybody else.
By the way, Dimitroff was brought here to basically rebuild the team. You don’t do that by keeping all of your older players who aren’t still playing at a high level, or keeping younger guys who are not playing as well as expected. And please don’t add Vick to the group that got cut. That’s not fair to Vick or to the other guys. The other guys were cut due to performance vs. value (contracts). We all know if Vick hadn’t gone to prison for two years, no way would he have been cut. And no, he doesn’t look bad for a guy who went to prison for two years. What do you expect, he is/was a top notch athlete in the highest level of football. And it’s not like he had time to do anything but stay in shape.
The fact that Boley, Brooking, Milloy, and Foxworth went to winning organizations has little to do with Dimitroff’s judgement. Teams are constantly having to let guys go, usually because the individual wants more money than they want to pay, and they have other, younger options at the same position. You see it all the time. Why aren’t Julius Peppers and Albert Haynesworth with the same teams? Did Haynesworth go to a winning team? I’m just sayin’….
Anyway, 2007 will not repeat itself. Different GM, coach, and culture altogether.
By the way, the comment you made about the post-Vick era being a failure unless the team goes 11-5 again…..show me where Vick was able to lead the Falcons to consecutive 11-5 seasons, then we’ll talk. If you want to talk facts, the Falcons haven’t had consecutive winning seasons in years. And I won’t blame all that on Vick. That’s just the way it has been.
As you said, what does hate have to do with facts? I think you answer that question every single time you post….
Bad News
September 8th, 2009
1:09 am
Sorry guys yall know I am just a big ol prison biatch. I cannot get the stain of MV7’s man gravy off my teeth and I am addicted to it. But I want Matt Ryan’s man gravy next and I just cannot stand myself.