Weekend Predictions (sound check): Dogs in trouble?
I am so ready for this (and get your hands off my chips).
Because this is the final blog of the day, and I wanted something to hold you through the weekend, and I’m pretty sure my feeling that FOOTBALL CAN’T GET HERE SOON ENOUGH gives me at least one thing in common with even those of you who often throw your half-eaten sandwich at my face on your computer screen, I’ve got football stuff for you.
Actually, consider this a low-level tease (that sounded kinda dirty) for next week’s re-unveiling of Weekend Predictions. Since we’re more electric and less acoustic now here at the AJC (that’s the newspaper) and AJC.com, it follows that you’ll be able to read Weekend Predictions online on Thursday afternoons now, as well as in print the following morning. This will allow the online reader access to special web-only Thursday night game BONUS PICKS, which will be so special that I felt the need to hit the CAPS LOCKED key, which normally is reserved for those commenting on Michael Vick blogs.
Darn. I wasn’t supposed to mention him today. Oh well.
Anyway, we plan another long and profitable season at W.P. Inc. As always, W.P. Inc. accepts no responsibility if you bet on the wrong selections that were meant only to humor you.
So I went looking for the official Glantz-Culver point spreads for next week’s college games and came to realize that they’re not out yet. Instead, I’m relying on BetUS.com, which has even posted odds on the Lingerie Football League. Why, I don’t know. And I’m sure all of the WNBA fans who hate me for my previous blog now are even more thrilled that I dared to mention the Lingerie Football League.
Following are point spreads for opening week games involving Georgia, Georgia Tech and the Falcons (in two weeks), as well as some various prop bets. The official Glantz-Culver lines next week might vary from these numbers. But it will give you some clue as to what to expect.
As always, it won’t give you any idea what direction I’m going.
(Note: I converted numbers from a money line to standard odds. For example, plus-500 becomes 5-1.)
GEORGIA ODDS
♦ Game 1: The Bulldogs are 6-point underdogs at Oklahoma State. What’s interesting about this is the home team generally gets three points, which means they still consider the Cowboys a field goal better on a neutral site and the line would be even in Athens. Conclusion: Somebody doesn’t believe in the Joe Cox offense or the Willie Martinez defense. Or both.
♦ Big picture: Florida is an overwhelming favorite to win the SEC (1 to 2.5), followed by LSU (4.5 to 1). The Dogs are 9 to 1, which is tied for fifth.
GEORGIA TECH ODDS:
♦ Game 1: There are no odds because the opponent, Jacksonville State, is a 1-AA team.
♦ Big picture: It’s close odds for the ACC championship between Florida State (2.3 to 1) and Virginia Tech (2.5 to 1). The Yellow Jackets are 6 to 1, which is tied for fifth.
HEISMAN TROPHY
♦ Favorites: Tim Tebow 2 to 1, Sam Bradford 2.5 to 1, Colt McCoy 2.75 to 1. Georgia Tech’s Jonathan Dwyer is 15 to 1, which is sixth.
BCS CHAMPIONS
1.) Florida: 1.8 to 1
2.) Oklahoma: 5 to 1
3t.) Texas and USC: 6.5 to 1
5.) Ohio State: 10 to 1
6.) Alabama: 12 to 1
7.) Virginia Tech: 16.5 to 1
8.) LSU: 18 to 1
9.) Notre Dame: 20 to 1
10.) Florida State: 22 to 1
11.) Penn State: 25 to 1
12.) Miami: 26 to 1
13t.) Mississippi and Oregon: 30 to 1
15.) North Carolina: 33 to 1
16.) Nebraska: 40 to 1
17t.) Georgia, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, California and South Florida: 50 to 1
FALCONS ODDS
♦ Game 1: 4-point favorites over Miami. Sounds right for two teams coming off surprising seasons.
♦ Big picture (NFC champions): N.Y. Giants 5 to 1, Philadelphia 5.5 to 1, Minnesota 6.5 to 1, New Orleans and Chicago 10 to 1. The Falcons are 12-1, tied for sixth).
♦ Really big picture (Super Bowl champions): New England 4.5 to 1, Pittsburgh 9 to 1, San Diego 10 to 1, N.Y. Giants and Philadelphia 12 to 1. The Falcons are 25 to 1, which is tied for 12th.
Here’s a link if you’re interested in more prop wagers (sporting, of course). For what it’s worth, they also have odds on whether an NFL team will go undefeated. You can get 2000 to 1 on the Detroit Lions.
So do these odds look about right to you, or are you surprised by the Georgia line?
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222 comments Add your comment
Frank Wren
August 29th, 2009
12:28 pm
Thats because its a home game for Florida in the GATOR BOWL for petes sake
Lets play in the GEORGIA DOME a few times
St Simons
August 29th, 2009
12:37 pm
Man love- RULEZ!
Reality Check
August 29th, 2009
12:50 pm
Schultz – If we went by preseason rankings and predictions UGA would have been national champions in 2008. I find it funny how the same fans and press were against last years predicitions when they werent in their teams favor and for the predictions this year when they are in their teams favor. Florida, Texas, and Oklahoma are really the only teams in my mind that have any room to talk. Unless the injury bug really hits these three teams like UGA last year, they will be great. Other than that, I think haveing any substantial evidence on who will be good and who will not be is all assumptions.
satchelbuzz
August 29th, 2009
12:52 pm
All of that talent–speed and athleticism–really served Georgia well on defense last season. Now I guess they’ve just been coached up, or so Buck Belue would have us to believe. Cowboys roll in the opener–38-24.
THWG!!!
Jeff Schultz
August 29th, 2009
1:01 pm
GT-EE-93 – I’ll take the half compliment, thank you. But for what it’s worth I’m really not anti-Jackets.
Gen Neyland – No argument. Haven’t seen all the conference wives but I’d think she’s at least in SEC title game.
Best time..: I’m gonna let you set the odds while I stand on the sidelines.
Mike – thanks for the tres kind words. Enjoy the lake.
To be honest – And to think, I was feeling so good today after reading Mike on Lake Hartwell.
Reality check: “Schultz – If we went by preseason rankings and predictions UGA would have been national champions in 2008.” Right you are. Odds mean nothing. They’re just fun to look at and debate. But in the end, we don’t know. That said, I don’t think Georgia’s going to be bad at all, but I’d venture to say they’re no better than third best in SEC (florida, lsu). Not sure yet about Alabama. But it’s such a great conference that there are going to be three or four games this season (for all SEC teams combined) that shock everybody.
Ivan
August 29th, 2009
1:16 pm
“….I felt the need to hit the CAPS LOCKED key, which normally is reserved for those commenting on Michael Vick blogs.”
Jeff, I have to admit, I LOL’d when I read that.
jay
August 29th, 2009
1:31 pm
Perhaps you could emulate the other famous Schultz
and call your blog “I know nothing…NOTHING”
gcs
August 29th, 2009
1:37 pm
How is it that LSU is the second favorite after Florida to win the SEC yet Alabama is a higher odds of winning the Natl Championship than LSU?
heeldawg
August 29th, 2009
1:44 pm
Trade School Junkie: Your posts are always entertaining for their idiocy. Amazing that so many delusions can be contained in such a tiny skull.
Gen Neyland: no argument. What I can’t figure out is why she married the guy.
Richt is 10-2 against ranked teams on the true road (opponent’s home stadium). Doesn’t include bowl games, conference championships or the Ga-Fla game because that is considered a “neutral site.” Including Bowl games and conference title games, he’s 19-5. Including Ga-Fla, he’s 21-10 (note that one Fla team that beat Georgia in Jax was unranked).
Enough odds. Let’s play some football!
Ed
August 29th, 2009
1:48 pm
Notre Dame 20-1 odds of winning it all? I think those would be the odds of them cracking the final Top 25. They’ve been awful in recent years. That can’t be right.
KJ
August 29th, 2009
2:12 pm
LOL @ the idea that Schultz is “anti-Jackets”. If he were, 80% of the posts here would be deleted, Well, maybe not, as leaving those up makes you gnats look even more idiotic with your “predictions”. What’s next, OSU by 83? 700 yards rushing by Dwyer? The sky’s the limit, right?
yellow fuzz
August 29th, 2009
2:15 pm
I know all you georgia fans are chomping at the bit to get started, but believe me, YOU are not ready for what your beloved are about to encounter! When you go 0-3 out of the gate, the topics here will shift to deer hunting, gymnastics and high school football recruiting (lol). MARK MY WORDS! I predict an 0-3 out of the gate and another beat down (”pound the hound”) in the flats to end your pathetic season. I’ll remind you that I told you so in August!
Sonny Clusters
August 29th, 2009
2:17 pm
We was being recruited pretty heavy by some teams and we was really flattered. One time a coach from one of those schools come up to visit us and we was in the living room talking for quite awhile before that coach said he had to go. He left after hugging Mama and shaking hands with Earl. That’s when we noticed that brand new Rolex in a box sitting right there next to the sofa where that coach had been sitting. We was guessing he forgot it but when we talked to him later he said we was special and he wanted us to be able to know the time wherever we was. We pawned that sucker within the hour and Earl got him a gun and Mama got some new rollers for her hair and we ended up with a pretty new flexi-racer. That coach was crazy leaving us a watch when we was the most athletic and would enjoy a flexi-racer so much more.
yellow fuzz
August 29th, 2009
2:23 pm
I also predict another “pound the hound” when I receive my next copy of Anime Digest.
Frank Wren
August 29th, 2009
2:26 pm
0 and 3 LOL
Ill take that bet
Jeff Schultz
August 29th, 2009
2:32 pm
Ivan — Thanks. Guess you’re as familiar with that tendency as I am.
Jay — Original.
GCS — Can’t answer that. But again, it has to do with wagering expectations. So maybe not as many people are expected to bet Alabama to win the SEC as they will bet Alabama to win the national champ., if that makes sense.
Ed — I agree. Odds on Notre Dame are ridiculous. But N.D. has so many national fans that get deluded every year into thinking team will be great (even worse than SEC fans) that they’re not going to post high odds.
Sonny — wuz you wondering how to plug the Rolex into the wall?
Cuz
August 29th, 2009
2:41 pm
go tech it is not heresy to pull for the other in-state team. If it was I would have already been visited by the Spanish Inquisition. Of course nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition. Gotta run someone is banging on my door. Three funny looking guys in red robes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gldlyTjXk9A
gratefuldawghead
August 29th, 2009
2:43 pm
Take the points and the DAWGS! I am more worried about South Carolina!
GO DAWGS!
Jeff Schultz
August 29th, 2009
2:56 pm
The Spanish Inquisition?
(Sounds funnier with Python-esque English accent)
Tuck Feck
August 29th, 2009
3:13 pm
Go Jacksonville State! I hear they may have more fans at the game than Tech. hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
AJ
August 29th, 2009
3:17 pm
It’s very obvious that uga fans do not respect OSU at all. I could understand if they had a returning qb back. Cox is going to struggle in this game. It’s obvious to everyone except dawg fans. Don;t you see how similar ga is to fsu. When you have a rookie qb starting, you are going to have some bad games. And you aren’t going to have 10 win seasons. 8 wins is about right and there’s a chance of 7. you barely squeaked by kentucky last year and really should have lost that game. but it’s all going to be turned around with cox cause he won in high school 4 years ago. yes that is logical. no more moreno on 3rd and 6 to save you. richt will start getting desperate and the turnovers will be plenty for ga this year. that is where you will lose your games. ints and fumbles by your new backs. reminds me a lot of fsu with ponder last year. ups and downs but turnovers will kill you. to think the defense will be so much better is a joke too. you can’t instill fundamentals when the coaching staff doesn’t teach it. osu wins by 11 35-24
Sonny Clusters
August 29th, 2009
3:25 pm
We was talking with Julia and Mike this morning and we was able to get you a nicer office, Jeff. We was thinking window but didn’t get that. Instead, you will be within an easy walk of the water cooler and men’s room plus there’s a real door on the office. None of that cubicle stuff for my buddy. We was never going to wear that Rolex but it was nice of that coach to leave it. And we never even tried to plug it in.
wreckmaniac
August 29th, 2009
3:34 pm
The year always begins with the Dawgs ranked #1 and last years national
champs. After the first loss they pull out the old ” you can always win the nat champ with one loss in the SEC” song. After the second loss, they pull out the old “this years recruitin’ is going to be awesome. Look at all the 5 stars signing up for UGA”. This is as
repetitous and predictable as taxes.
Camden Mark
August 29th, 2009
3:35 pm
It’s a shame when Notre Dame could have such good odds based on a weak schedual.If UGA or GT had such a weak slate at least 11 wins would be won.So Cal is the only strong team they play.
We need a playoff system so the media darling weenies like this would be weeded out.
Little 12 conference
August 29th, 2009
3:43 pm
GEORGIA is 3-0 against over-rated Stillwater Cow College!
yellow fuzz
August 29th, 2009
3:48 pm
GEORGIA dominated Tech too but both reigns have ended. You and all your azzhole friends will soon see. GEORGIA ain’t what it was
HOTDAWG
August 29th, 2009
4:22 pm
42-17 I am a true dog but this game will hand my boys an shamful start.
We wind up season 4 and 8
we loose to okla state,arkansas,lsu,tennessee,vanderbilt,florida,auburn,kentucky.
we winn georgia tech because they stayed home that day.
bad year for us
Roy in Anniston
August 29th, 2009
4:29 pm
GeoffDawg,
Why would anyone be interested in your sub-par 401-k? I understand that you initiated it tgis year afer being terminated from your custodial duties at the Post Office on Main St.
Roy in Anniston (Jennifer, that is)
HOTDAWG
August 29th, 2009
4:29 pm
GO DAWGS
Roy in Anniston
August 29th, 2009
4:32 pm
HOTDAWG,
That was quite original. Please give us more!
Roy in Anniston
Roy in Hilton
August 29th, 2009
5:09 pm
Nothing’s more original than jokes about UGA grads and custodial jobs, AMIRITE?
Roy in Hilton (Perez, that is)
dan
August 29th, 2009
5:47 pm
Jeff,
Being a 6 point underdog on the road is a good thing. You almost always take the underdog with that spread! The way I look at it the Cowboys are the ones with something to prove not UGA. The Cowboys are the ones that have to prove that they belong among the elite in their conference( Oklahoma and Texas). Zac Robinson has to prove that he’s the real deal and that their offense can put up huge numbers against an SEC team. UGA’s defense might have sucked last year, but nationally the perception is that a lousy SEC defense is still better than a mediocre Big 10 defense. Locally, Dawg fans expect their team to win. But Nationally, I think everyone kind of sees this as an opportunity for the Cowboys to have a coming out party. That’s why I think the Dawgs can win this game, maybe even in a blowout.
Frank Wren
August 29th, 2009
5:47 pm
The trade school wins one game a decade with a gimmick offense and you cant shut em up
Pretty Pathetic
Tech Ticket Manager
August 29th, 2009
5:48 pm
Anyone need tickets to the Jax State game?
We have a “No , not that Gamecock ” special going now..10 tickets for $10..includes $10 hotodgs..and you can lead the marching band at halftimne instead of flag boy. Call 800-PTHETIC.
Yellow Fuzz
August 29th, 2009
5:58 pm
Franky,
LOL. Talk about gimmick offenses. What did you call all the Balew to Hershal toss sweeps? LOL. NFL offense? LOL. And that was 90% of your plays azzhole! LOL.
Call it anything you want because your defense can only slow it down. They can’t stop it. And your offense can’t score 30 points against a D-1 opponent. You can only hope that your wide outs can out rebound the cornerbacks. Talk about gimmicks. LOL
satchelbuzz
August 29th, 2009
6:19 pm
Jeff,…you’re way off base. No way is ugag the 3rd best team in the SEC this year. Florida, LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss. Ugag maybe no. 5.
THWG!
Jeff Schultz
August 29th, 2009
6:20 pm
Dan — no question there is more focus on Oklahoma St. this game, with star QB and WR and also the fact it’s school’s highest ever pre-season ranking. There probably is a little more pressure on them than Georgia.But there’s a fair bit of pressure on Joe Cox too.
Jeff Schultz
August 29th, 2009
6:25 pm
Satchel…
You could be right, but my opinion:
Alabama: great defense. not sure about the offense.
Ole Miss: good but I think overrated. a lot of folks jumping on that bandwagon early.
David Granger
August 29th, 2009
6:40 pm
I do hope UGA has more sense than to go up there hopped up on that “We’ll win because we’re the SEC team, and that’s the best conference!”
We let West Virginia catch us all doped up on that silly crap in a bowl game a couple of years ago…and lost to a team we should have beaten.
Frank Wren
August 29th, 2009
7:06 pm
Tech = Gimmick Offense
YAWN!!
Doyle Hargraves
August 29th, 2009
7:06 pm
I prognostigate that Stafford and Marino are gonna turn it up SHOCK THE WORLD and beat the gators once again! I’m callin the boys – Linda go get me my gitar!
ochrebugman
August 29th, 2009
7:08 pm
It is entirely possible that the University of Georgia Bulldog football team could win every game they play this season including a national championship bowl game. It is also entirely possible that the very same University of Georgia Bulldog football team could lose every game they play and have to wash their faces in the toilet bowl at seasons end. Neither of these is likely. University of Georgia football fans, like all football fans would be wise to forgo any forcasting until they play at least one game to see if they have much of a football team at all. After they have played OSU on Sept. 5th, then it might be wise to take a huge risk and prognosticate what their season might be. One game can’t possibly predict future success or failure, but it can give one a general idea of their skills……enough to be just as brash as Lou Holtz in predicting a BCS championship game involving Notre Dame without the benefit of having played a single game. It seems that the desire to want to root for a top football team brings out the most irrational ideas in people. Some of the most objective sports enthusiasts fare better at prognosticating than those who are less so. The most rational fans don’t waste their time prognosticating at all. Truly devoted fans support their team regardless of the outcomes of the games. Seasonal games are singular events with results predicated upon the fate of how the ball bounces on that given day. Different days produce different results. The fortunes of an entire season can rest upon the smallest event within the context of a game and such an event or events may not be at all equated with the mental and physical skills of either team. Yet the results produced can necessarily decide an outcome that would be entirely different if such an event occurred differently. Two different timekeepers start and stop the play clock and game clock with distinctly different reaction times. Over the course of the game the reaction times between slow reflex and quick reflex time keepers can be significant enough to account for several plays which can certainly decide the fate of a close game. One team wins the game with the slow reflex timekeeper while the other teams wins with a quick reflex time keeper. This also applies to the placement of ball spots. An inch or two could and does make all the difference in the world. These events have little to do with the players. Fans would do well to significantly reduce the importance of outcomes and remember that a team that wins the NC may not be the best football team, but indeed, the most fortunate. So if you deem it necessary to prognosticate, you would do well to factor these unpredictable events into your scheme…..which is impossible to do. However at season’s end you may well have the right to say, ” Our team was at least as good as all the others, except we were more fortunate! Perhaps the Bowl Championship series should be retitled “Bowl Fortunate Series”. It is, indeed a more accurate title.
TheItalianDawg
August 29th, 2009
7:09 pm
Georgia should have their defense back to have any chance against anybody this season, if Georgia’s defense cannot improve from last year Georgia will be lucky to go 7-5, WM needs to step up! enough said.
GT Master:
August 29th, 2009
7:13 pm
GeoffDawg: If you are a UGAG grad, you probably don’t have much of a 401k if any! THWG! Your school suxs azz!
Frank Wren
August 29th, 2009
7:23 pm
The only thing longer than this blog?
The crime blotter on the tech campus
GT Master:
August 29th, 2009
7:25 pm
To All UGA Fans: If UGA goes undefeated, I will wear UGA clothes and a UGA football jersey the entire year and I HATE your school, fan base, team and city. I HATE all of your BS about how good your overated team is and how great the SEC is. It’s old. You couldn’t even beat GT last year with 16 pt lead at half time with Knowshow and Stafford. Settle down rednecks and let’s see what happens. Even if you beat OSU, which you won’t, you will get pounded by UF, as usual, LSU, GT and probably another team like say……………..VANDY or SC. Your team suxs and always will. the Herschel Walker days are over and your crappy program is sinking. You lose at least 4 games this year. Also, your mascot suxs azz. Sit his nuts on a bag of ice and sit your fat azz redneck fans on a bag of ice coz you will need it when the first 5-6 games are over. THWG!
Frank Wren
August 29th, 2009
7:28 pm
I am an avid UGA fan, but let’s admit it fellow redneck fans. We suck azz this year. Joe Phallic ain’t taken us to the promise land and I can still see Roddy Jones running in my dreams. Man, GT is great and we are the 2nd tier team in this state. We suck azz.
yellow fuzz
August 29th, 2009
7:34 pm
Franky
That “Gimmick Offense” had two backs rush for over 100 yards and the team to amase over 400 (ON THE FREAKING GROUND) in last year’s Georgia Bowl!
We have added pass plays that work off of every run we showed last year and though you have more 5 star athletes we will kick your azz again because this time you won’t have Stafford when you play catch up.
You might want to start learning the words to our fight song dude because it’s going to be a few years of payback.
Yawn all you want MF! I will be hear to say I told you so. Bank on it!
KJ
August 29th, 2009
7:41 pm
“If UGA goes undefeated, I will wear UGA clothes and a UGA football jersey the entire year”
Wow, a promise made over the internet by a pathetic NATS troll. Doesn’t get any more iron-clad than THAT!
Frank Wren
August 29th, 2009
9:41 pm
We have added pass plays that work off of every run we showed last year
That should be funny to watch