Weekend Predictions (sound check): Dogs in trouble?
I am so ready for this (and get your hands off my chips).
Because this is the final blog of the day, and I wanted something to hold you through the weekend, and I’m pretty sure my feeling that FOOTBALL CAN’T GET HERE SOON ENOUGH gives me at least one thing in common with even those of you who often throw your half-eaten sandwich at my face on your computer screen, I’ve got football stuff for you.
Actually, consider this a low-level tease (that sounded kinda dirty) for next week’s re-unveiling of Weekend Predictions. Since we’re more electric and less acoustic now here at the AJC (that’s the newspaper) and AJC.com, it follows that you’ll be able to read Weekend Predictions online on Thursday afternoons now, as well as in print the following morning. This will allow the online reader access to special web-only Thursday night game BONUS PICKS, which will be so special that I felt the need to hit the CAPS LOCKED key, which normally is reserved for those commenting on Michael Vick blogs.
Darn. I wasn’t supposed to mention him today. Oh well.
Anyway, we plan another long and profitable season at W.P. Inc. As always, W.P. Inc. accepts no responsibility if you bet on the wrong selections that were meant only to humor you.
So I went looking for the official Glantz-Culver point spreads for next week’s college games and came to realize that they’re not out yet. Instead, I’m relying on BetUS.com, which has even posted odds on the Lingerie Football League. Why, I don’t know. And I’m sure all of the WNBA fans who hate me for my previous blog now are even more thrilled that I dared to mention the Lingerie Football League.
Following are point spreads for opening week games involving Georgia, Georgia Tech and the Falcons (in two weeks), as well as some various prop bets. The official Glantz-Culver lines next week might vary from these numbers. But it will give you some clue as to what to expect.
As always, it won’t give you any idea what direction I’m going.
(Note: I converted numbers from a money line to standard odds. For example, plus-500 becomes 5-1.)
GEORGIA ODDS
♦ Game 1: The Bulldogs are 6-point underdogs at Oklahoma State. What’s interesting about this is the home team generally gets three points, which means they still consider the Cowboys a field goal better on a neutral site and the line would be even in Athens. Conclusion: Somebody doesn’t believe in the Joe Cox offense or the Willie Martinez defense. Or both.
♦ Big picture: Florida is an overwhelming favorite to win the SEC (1 to 2.5), followed by LSU (4.5 to 1). The Dogs are 9 to 1, which is tied for fifth.
GEORGIA TECH ODDS:
♦ Game 1: There are no odds because the opponent, Jacksonville State, is a 1-AA team.
♦ Big picture: It’s close odds for the ACC championship between Florida State (2.3 to 1) and Virginia Tech (2.5 to 1). The Yellow Jackets are 6 to 1, which is tied for fifth.
HEISMAN TROPHY
♦ Favorites: Tim Tebow 2 to 1, Sam Bradford 2.5 to 1, Colt McCoy 2.75 to 1. Georgia Tech’s Jonathan Dwyer is 15 to 1, which is sixth.
BCS CHAMPIONS
1.) Florida: 1.8 to 1
2.) Oklahoma: 5 to 1
3t.) Texas and USC: 6.5 to 1
5.) Ohio State: 10 to 1
6.) Alabama: 12 to 1
7.) Virginia Tech: 16.5 to 1
8.) LSU: 18 to 1
9.) Notre Dame: 20 to 1
10.) Florida State: 22 to 1
11.) Penn State: 25 to 1
12.) Miami: 26 to 1
13t.) Mississippi and Oregon: 30 to 1
15.) North Carolina: 33 to 1
16.) Nebraska: 40 to 1
17t.) Georgia, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, California and South Florida: 50 to 1
FALCONS ODDS
♦ Game 1: 4-point favorites over Miami. Sounds right for two teams coming off surprising seasons.
♦ Big picture (NFC champions): N.Y. Giants 5 to 1, Philadelphia 5.5 to 1, Minnesota 6.5 to 1, New Orleans and Chicago 10 to 1. The Falcons are 12-1, tied for sixth).
♦ Really big picture (Super Bowl champions): New England 4.5 to 1, Pittsburgh 9 to 1, San Diego 10 to 1, N.Y. Giants and Philadelphia 12 to 1. The Falcons are 25 to 1, which is tied for 12th.
Here’s a link if you’re interested in more prop wagers (sporting, of course). For what it’s worth, they also have odds on whether an NFL team will go undefeated. You can get 2000 to 1 on the Detroit Lions.
So do these odds look about right to you, or are you surprised by the Georgia line?
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222 comments Add your comment
BruffDawg
August 28th, 2009
5:25 pm
Jeff, You know why they are favoring OSU. They have all the right players at the positions that media types drool over (QB, WR, RB). I remember a team last year with similar star players at those positions that didn’t live up to expectations. I don’t pretend to know what is going to happen but OSU as a SLIGHT favorite seems fair. Do not be suprised though if UGA can keep up with them. Their tallest DB is listed at 6ft or so and we have several WR/TE now 6′3 or taller. If cox has time he could light them up.
Saint Simons
August 28th, 2009
5:26 pm
I like men too!!
Old Dawg
August 28th, 2009
5:27 pm
Jared Jones: UGA opened against 1-AA school Georgia Southern in 2008, so Paul H’s analogy about tough 1-A schools wouldn’t work. It’s good to try and keep things in context when countering a statement. I know that’s a difficult concept for some, but it certainly helps keep the flames of arguments at a low level. A little research works well too.
Cuz
August 28th, 2009
5:28 pm
Hey 45, you might need a laugh buddy. Courtesy of Andy Griffith.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNxLxTZHKM8
Bring on the season. I swear I would watch “The Fighting Amish” of East Pennsylvania State versus “The Battling Bozos” from Clown College.
Please for the love of God, give me some College Football!
comicman
August 28th, 2009
5:28 pm
But you’re not as cute.
SWAT Native
August 28th, 2009
5:28 pm
Jeff,
I would love to read your emails some Friday morning. I’ll bet you get some interesting rebuttals. You must have a very thick skin.
Dawghater
August 28th, 2009
5:28 pm
Hey, BruffDawg, you don’t have to worry how tall OSU’s DB’s are when you have someone like Joe Cox at QB. Tall WR’s and TE’s mean nothing when Stafford is in Detroit!
Cuz
August 28th, 2009
5:29 pm
Yeah, “Late Schultz” sounds like a Memorial Service.
Paul H
August 28th, 2009
5:34 pm
Opening Day:
2003: UGA 30, Clemson 0
2005: UGA 45, Boise 21
2007: UGA 35, OSU 14
The pattern, everyone, is this: UGA comes to play against tough opening day opponents, especially ones whom are either favored or are predicted by ESPN to be “upset specials.” You can bank UGA will come to play in Stillwater.
Paul H
August 28th, 2009
5:35 pm
And don’t forget Richt’s record on the road against top 25 opponents. Even Myer and Saban wish they had that record.
BruffDawg
August 28th, 2009
5:39 pm
You mean a 5th year senior who was an elite 11 prospect who won the accuracy challenge and never lost a game as a starter? I’ll take someone like that.
Fiddycent
August 28th, 2009
5:40 pm
I shur hopes Tech scor mo points den da numba o peoples been mugged around da campus dis year. Day needs to score at lease 14.
Yo – Trade School Junkie – I wantz a hit off dat crack pipe you livin in. Tech – 12 & 0? Dats gotz to be sum good prduc.
Gottsta run. Nancy Pelosi is at da doe and she be wantin some of da ole fiddy. No what I’m sayin? U no what day say…daz rite. She an ole nasty white woman, oh lord…
45ACP
August 28th, 2009
5:44 pm
Cuz, that was great! I remember my parents playing a record of that when I was just a young…. well a long time ago.
A classic for sure.
Doug
August 28th, 2009
5:54 pm
Just got back from Las Vegas and the Dawgs are now +6.5. As a Vol fan, I say this is the lock bet of the first weekend, take the Dawgs and the 6.5 points and celebrate Saturday night.
DamYankee
August 28th, 2009
5:58 pm
If this is a representative sample of the comments we can expect on this blog, I think I’ll just wait until Friday morning over breakfast at Huddle House to read Weekend Predictions. Besides, I get a perverse pleasure from blowing scrambled eggs through my nose as I read the latest “trembling chihuahuas” comments. I can’t remember what cute nickname you use for the Jello Yackets, I guess I’ll find out next week. Can’t wait!
LSUTiger
August 28th, 2009
6:03 pm
38-3. Bwahhahahahahahahah. I will laugh even harder when Jax State beats them.
Duluth Gator
August 28th, 2009
6:05 pm
Paul H, what is Richt’s record on the road against top 25?
GTkenz
August 28th, 2009
6:18 pm
50 cent – ever hear of not caring about a meaningless bowl game. Do you really think CPJ prepared the kids for a Peach Bowl the way he did for Ugag? C’mon bro! Auburn, Vandy, Miss St., Tech has a better record against the SEC than the ACC in recent years. Oh btw, CPJ’s only been at Tech for one year, so that Chan and Reggie were spanking Auburn, one of your SEC elites. Schnizal my nizal bro!
TXDawg (from Decatur to Mansfield, TX)
August 28th, 2009
6:20 pm
Will be in Stillwater at the game alone in my Red & Black to witness the worst Cowboy Massacre since the Alamo! LOL….actually, I expect a better game, but I think GA’s Defensive will control the line of scrimmage and OU’s running game. If the DB’s can deflect/intercept some passes it will disrupt OSU’s rhythm. On the flip side, GA still has offensive weapons despite the big names. Remember Knowshon wasn’t a big name before the last OSU game but his star rose shortly thereafter. GA does, has had, and will always have talent. With AJ Green likely demanding double coverage (heaven help OSU if they don’t), someone else will step up. It’s just a matter of time and snaps for everyone to see.
Who is the next offensive star??
> Richard Samuel
> Caleb King
> Carlton Thomas
> Orson Charles
> Rantavious Wooten
> Marlon Brown
> another player
BruffDawg
August 28th, 2009
6:20 pm
PJ will never get GT to the next level if he considers bowl games in his own city “meaningless.”
jim
August 28th, 2009
6:21 pm
the line isn’t a prediction…it is a number the books use to try & make $$.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
6:23 pm
GeoffDawg – yes, I have MAJOR tax problems, or would if I actually paid them. (Kidding Mr. IRS, just kidding).
Comicman – Schultz Lately. Hmmm. As in, ‘What have you done for me . . .’
BruffDawg – a good analogy.
SWAT—Yeah, I got some good ones. Truth is though I don’t get nearly as much email as I used to since we started the open commenting. People now realize they can call me almost anything in total anonymity. In fact, they can do it under multiple phony “names” which leaves the impression that, say, 10 people in a row are ripping me, when in fact its one kid in his dorm room or a team’s PR guy in his office. But hey, just trying to keep the conversation lively.
Cuz – Good point. Some would like to see that.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
6:25 pm
Duluth Gator: Georgia says Richt is 30-4 in an opponent’s stadium, including 10-2 against ranked teams. But it should be noted those record do not include the Florida games, because it’s considered a neutral site.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
6:29 pm
Jim — absolutely true. But a line is based on perceptions — that is, what team do most people think will win (and bet) Lines are created to balance that out and get an even amount of money bet on both sides.
Sandyspringsjacket
August 28th, 2009
6:32 pm
Shultz, I wouldn’t waste a half eaten sandwich on you or any the Athens Journal so called sports writers.
Dawgs are one of the most overated team in the America, however Okie State is even more overated. The leg humpers will win, their fans will become dillusional again until they get a beat down by ARK or SC (pick one), LSU, Gators, Tenn and GT. Jackets will be in the ACC race all season and Humper fans will continue to focus on our stadium size as we roll over them by 20 in late November at HISTORIC GRANT FIELD at BOBBY DODD STADIUM.
Duluth Gator
August 28th, 2009
6:37 pm
Jeff, thanks, yea I’m sure Urban would take that.
jerry
August 28th, 2009
6:38 pm
Take the 6 if you can get it. It won’t be that much at game time. OKSU is getting a lot of press because of their offense. They are a middle of the pack Big 12 team vs.a pretty damn good SEC team. Just my opinion.
RAMBLE ON!!!
August 28th, 2009
6:42 pm
I don’t care what Saint Simons says. I am g@yer than he is. We both like men.
UGA Fan
August 28th, 2009
6:50 pm
I like little boys.
BruffDawg
August 28th, 2009
6:58 pm
I never understood why people will read an article/ post and take so much offense. Until toe meets leather it’s just words, words, words. Nobody knows whats going to happen. But it is fun to speculate.
Fiddycent
August 28th, 2009
7:03 pm
Yo, yo, yo – gTkenz – whad up bro? Whut u mean da wasunt up fo da bowl? What wus up was da Tiger dat put a asswhuppin on dem bees – fashizzill my drizzil. No way da bees win da ACC. All da opposin team dun saw PJs option play and will be defendin it fo show. LSU dun showd dem how. 38-3 baby…..just be real, you feel me?
TXDawg (from Decatur to Mansfield, TX)
August 28th, 2009
7:04 pm
Someone asked Richt’s record on the road versus ranked opponents…..well here is the breakdown:
Date Opponent Opp. Rank GA Rank Score W/L
10/6/2001 Tennessee #5 NR 26 – 24 W
11/24/2001 GA Tech #21 #23 31 – 17 W
10/5/2002 Alabama #22 #6 27 – 25 W
11/16/2002 Auburn #24 #7 24 – 21 W
12/7/2002 Arkansas #22 #4 30 – 3 W
1/1/2003 Florida St #16 #4 26 – 13 W
9/13/2003 South Carolina #25 #8 31 – 7 W
9/20/2003 LSU #11 #7 10 – 17 L
10/11/2003 Tennessee #13 #8 41 – 14 W
12/6/2003 LSU #3 #5 13 – 34 L
1/1/2004 Purdue #12 #11 34 – 27 W
11/13/2004 Auburn #3 #5 6 – 24 L
1/1/2005 Wisconsin #16 #7 24 – 21 W
10/8/2005 Tennessee #7 #5 27 – 14 W
11/26/2005 GA Tech #24 #13 14 – 7 W
12/3/2005 LSU #3 #12 34 – 14 W
1/2/2006 West Virginia #11 #8 35 – 38 L
10/7/2006 Tennessee #14 #9 33 – 51 L
11/11/2006 Auburn #5 NR 37 – 15 W
12/30/2006 Virginia Tech #14 NR 31 – 24 W
9/22/2007 Alabama #20 #21 26 – 23 W
1/1/2008 Hawaii #10 #4 41 – 10 W
10/25/2008 LSU #11 #9 52 – 38 W
1/1/2009 Michigan State #18 #17 24 – 12 W
19 – 5
Going for #20 on 9/5 in Stillwater!!
TXDawg (from Decatur to Mansfield, TX)
August 28th, 2009
7:06 pm
….oh yeah….a few of these games against ranked opponents include bowl and SEC championship games.
ComeON
August 28th, 2009
7:17 pm
Oklahoma State are a bunch of pansies. Georgia Southern would roll over that team. It’s men playing boys.
SwimTrunkDawg
August 28th, 2009
7:20 pm
My peckers itching. Any advice?
UGAho
August 28th, 2009
7:22 pm
Scratch it SwimTrunkDawg.
Fiddycent
August 28th, 2009
7:23 pm
TXDawg (from Decatur to Mansfield, TX) – yo, bro. Needs ta chec you facts. That asswhippin UT laid on da dawgs on 10/7/2006 wus in Athens. Keepin it real – Fiddy fo sho
SwimTrunkDawg
August 28th, 2009
7:29 pm
Why thank you UGAho, that seems to have done the trick.
BIG BEE
August 28th, 2009
7:32 pm
FIDDYCENT, load up your assault weapon and get back on the street. Your language is close to rap gang members and is not funny at all. Just keep it up and remain stupid fot the rest of your worthless life.
George O'Leary
August 28th, 2009
7:43 pm
Here’s a toast to Teddy ,just more scotch for me!!!
GradyGrad96
August 28th, 2009
7:46 pm
TXDawg – The 2006 game against Tenn was in Athens correct? You have a game listed against Tenn for 2005 and 2006. We alternate home and away every year.
WildBill
August 28th, 2009
7:50 pm
I congratulate the AJC staff for stirring up the dawg nation in its upcoming contest with the Cowpokes. After last years display of relative ineffectiveness against clearly superior teams, the bulldawg nation has waked up and back to its old form, arguing about mundane things like statistics and opinions, and then more opinions. We all have our feelings about the first game, and the season at good ole UGA. I have not reconciled the fact, because I have no way of knowing, if the dawg coaches and players have adequately addressed and corrected last years failings. These failings are well documented, verbally and in the stats book. Having said ALL THAT, it appears to be a HUGE task to expect those shortcomings will be corrected, especially in the first game. So, I stick with my educated guess with the Pokes winning, 31-17, remember, you saw it here first.
GM
August 28th, 2009
7:51 pm
I can understand why Schultz reads this stuff, he gets paid. The rest of you have serious issues. I can’t handle more than 1 or 2 of these mindless entries. Bring on the season so maybe we actually have something to talk about.
Andrew
August 28th, 2009
7:56 pm
Jeff,
If home field is worth three points wouldn’t OSU be a three point favorite on a neutral field and the line would be even in Athens?
kool$kat
August 28th, 2009
8:01 pm
THWG!
JaggedJacket
August 28th, 2009
8:02 pm
I second that, THWG!
suckeggdawg
August 28th, 2009
8:03 pm
Yes yes THWG!
Tebow4Pres2012
August 28th, 2009
8:05 pm
I think we can alllll agree!!! Whats the good word??
THWG!!!
Amnesiac
August 28th, 2009
8:37 pm
Hallelujah Holy Crap! WP is back to save me from the weak sports coverage in East Tennessee.
Are the Dream still eligible for the playoffs? They can do a double feature and have a flannel parade over to the Women’s Basketball Hall of Fame.
Isn’t lingerie football is dangerous stuff when mixed with marriage to reality TV stars who have experience with pliers and saws?
DawgPoo
August 28th, 2009
8:39 pm
Cowboys will win big!