Braves fans, here’s the numbers (cover your eyes)
The Braves celebrated a win Thursday. But they'll need quite a few more.
I know sometimes baseball fans get angry when us nattering nabobs of negativism (copyright: tax cheat and lousy official scorer Spiro Agnew) suggest that their team might be hopelessly out of the race.
So I won’t do that this morning. Yes, the Braves just lost two out of three games at home to the San Diego Padres, a last-place team, at a time when they really needed to sweep somebody at home, especially a last-place team. But keep hope alive, right? Uh, where was I?
So here goes. You will get no negative verbiage from me. You get only numbers. I figure in this case, numbers tell the story.
First, here’s how it looks in the N.L. East:
Team W L Pct. GB
Philadelphia 73 52 .584 –
Atlanta 67 60 .528 7
Florida 67 60 .528 7
And here’s how it looks in the N.L. wild card picture
Team W L Pct. GB
Colorado 72 56 .563 –
San Francisco 69 59 .539 3
Atlanta 67 60 .528 4.5
Florida 67 60 .528 4.5
And here are all the bottom lines:
♦ EAST: If the Phillies continue to play at a .584 pace, they’ll go 22-15 in their last 37 games and finish 95-67. The Braves would have to go 28-7 (.800) just to tie.
♦ EAST: If the Phillies play at just above a .500 clip, 19-18, the rest of the way, they’ll finish 92-70. The Braves would have to go 25-10 (.714) to catch them.
(For the record, Philadelphia was 39-37 on July 2. It’s 34-15 since. The Phillies have been playing at a .694 clip for nearly two months.)
♦ WILD CARD: If the Rockies continue to play at a .563 pace, they’ll go 19-15 in their final 34 games and finish 91-71. The Braves would have to go 24-11(.686) to tie them.
♦ WILD CARD: If the Rockies play at a .500 clip, 17-17, the rest of the way, they’ll finish 89-73. The Braves would have to go 22-13 (.629) to catch them.
(For the record, Colorado started the season 18-28 but is 54-28 since firing manager Clint Hurdle May 28 and replacing him with Jim Tracy. The Rockies have been playing at a .659 clip for three months.)
♦ BRAVES RECAP: They were 39-43 on July 6. They are 28-17 since. That’s a .622 clip, which is less than .800, .714, .686 or .629.
OK, I’m done. Hopefully I didn’t ruin your breakfast.
What do the numbers tell you?
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168 comments Add your comment
"Chef" Tim Dix
August 28th, 2009
5:33 am
Got the mega ball numbers Jeff?
If so, please e-mail.
"Chef" Tim Dix
August 28th, 2009
5:52 am
I bought a quick pick for tuesdays drawing and I got 4, v, q, q, z, and mega ball bumber was the star symbol.
Charles Jackson
August 28th, 2009
5:55 am
Numbers don’t lie BUT hope springs eternal.
Knight Rider
August 28th, 2009
6:16 am
It is what it is…cant wait to see how hudson does on monday
brewdawg
August 28th, 2009
6:38 am
Jeff, your wild card numbers have one (slight) mistake. San Francisco is 69-59 and 3 games back. Have a good one.
Coach (2010 or Bust)
August 28th, 2009
6:45 am
I can’t handle common sense this early in the morning, I’m going back to sleep.
Nativebird
August 28th, 2009
6:59 am
…and when do pitchers and catchers report in 2010?
Bob Horner had a sweet compact swing
August 28th, 2009
7:01 am
Dang…talk about waking up and getting punched in the mouth…that’s not like you Jeff…
Felix the Cat
August 28th, 2009
7:11 am
FIRST…………………..errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr Ninth……………………….
Tell It Like It Is
August 28th, 2009
7:15 am
Numbers do not lie. It IS what It IS.
Bama Aaron
August 28th, 2009
7:24 am
The numbers just say what we’ve known for at least a week or two. The Braves are playing moderately well now, but dug themselves too much of a hole early.
Maybe next season Wren & company will realize this when they’re putting together the opening day roster. And maybe Bobby will realize it when he’s giving some young player 2 months to hit their way out of a slump. Sometimes 1 or two games early can make a difference.
Willy
August 28th, 2009
7:27 am
That your a douche bag.
Willy
August 28th, 2009
7:27 am
Woops, that you’re still a douche bag…and I need Spellcheck.
Chris
August 28th, 2009
7:27 am
Football season kicks off soon!
Nite Owl
August 28th, 2009
7:28 am
I’ve been thinking 90 wins to have any shot, but April, May, and June put us too far back.
The Phillies and Rockies just got hot before we did. The scariest numbers were the pace the Rockies have been on. No reason to think they’ll cool off now.
That said, just one good week for us, one bad week for them…right?
NCBravesFan
August 28th, 2009
7:29 am
I have a funny feeling the Braves will play very well this weekend against the Phils.
Of course, it could just be gas.
bubba
August 28th, 2009
7:35 am
holy cow good news is I don’t have to get mad anymore when I can’t get peachtree tv on Dish
football rules anyway
don’t do this about the Falcons okay keep quite
Mitch C
August 28th, 2009
7:42 am
Jeff, the NL East isnt going to happen. While the wild card might be difficult, it’s still doable. I think the Braves can play 10 games over the rest of the season. While we still have this series with Philly left, and games with Florida, we also have a lot of games with bottom feeders Washington and New York.
I’m not saying we “will” get the wild card. I’m saying it’s doable. The two losses against the Padres hurt, a lot, but, there’s still a chance for the wild card.
Mitch
Phil
August 28th, 2009
7:46 am
The numbers tell us what we knew when the season started, that Cox is a Moron. He waited too late to make Diaz and Prado everyday players. Just think where the numbers would be if he made those changes early in the season. He had one of our best hitters in Diaz on the bench half the time. What an idiot. Wren, wake up man, you have to get rid of this clown.
greg
August 28th, 2009
7:47 am
braves need to sweep the phillies and then see what happens…not…they are toast
Dale
August 28th, 2009
7:49 am
It tells me the lack of hitting in the first half of the season has doomed the Braves. They need another bat for next year on one of the corner outfield positions.
It also means, who cares, FLORIDA STATE vs MIAMI on Labor Day is 10 days away! GO SEMINOLES!
JayRoot
August 28th, 2009
7:51 am
.
HEY SCHULTZIE!!!!
Don’t confuse me with the facts!
I have enough on my plate with this facist pig NOBama and his scam of a health care fix.
Just have faith baby. Things will work out … or not.
Now, let’s start talking ’bout all that butt the Yellow Jackets are gonna kick this year. Whadayasay?
.
Phil
August 28th, 2009
7:54 am
NCBravesFan,
I predcit the Braves will get swept by the Phillies. There is no sense of urgency, no playing with passion. Cox can no longer fire this team up. He’s done and if Wren can’t see this, then we’re in big trouble for the next several years.
Nativebird
August 28th, 2009
7:55 am
So who do you think will start at DE opposite of John Abraham? Do you think Ryan-to-Gonzalez has a chance to set Falcons TE records? How about that young defense, huh?
Joe
August 28th, 2009
8:01 am
it tells me that we still have a legitimate shot at the wild card. I too think 90 wins will put us in.
Hillbilly Deluxe
August 28th, 2009
8:03 am
Whoever it was that said “April is the cruelest month”, obviously never followed a sinking baseball team.
Rex D
August 28th, 2009
8:06 am
Good numbers . . . . Thanks . . . The key is that there are TWO scenarios, not one . . . The other thing Jeff is that it took a while, but our team now has a very solid rotation (perhaps even more with Hudson rejoining), solid batting line up, good defense, and good late bullpen . . . So if we are going to play our strongest stretch of baseball, it would not be all that surprising for it to occur in September.
Nite Owl
August 28th, 2009
8:09 am
@ Phil:
Let’s see—you call Bobby a moron, a clown, and an idiot, and you are predicting a Phillies sweep.
How’s that irritable bowl syndrome going, anyway? You make Andy Rooney sound like Mary Poppins.
The Braves have played out of their minds since the All-Star break. No passion? What have you been watching?
This team is headed in the right direction, and we’re set to be very good for years.
We’re finally playing meaningful games in September again.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go hold up the sky over Phil’s house.
NCBravesFan
August 28th, 2009
8:11 am
Any post that begins with “Cox is a moron” gets skipped by me. Chipper isn’t hitting … McLouth is hurt … others are banged up.
He’s by no means perfect, but I’m not sure what Bobby is supposed to do about those facts … and the fact that really, the Phillies are a better all around team than the Braves.
curtis jones
August 28th, 2009
8:12 am
As Phil posted at 7:46 am, the numbers tell the story of the season. The “idiot bloggers” pointed out for months that Cox pushed the wrong buttons repeatedly during the first 3-4 months of the season.
That 39-43 record could have easily been 49-33 with the great pitching the Braves were getting. Remember last year, everyone was saying, “Oh, if only we had starting pitching!” Well, Wren went out and got some. Quality starts almost every day. And still Cox underachieved.
If some enterprising sports writer wanted to establish some facts (hint, hint) he/she would look at the record of this team:
A) in games Francoeur started,
B) in games Kelly Johnson started
C) in games Casey Kotchman started;
as opposed to:
A) games since Francoeur left
B) games Matt Diaz started
C) games Martin Prado started
Cox played Frenchy while Diaz sat.
Cox played Kelly Johnson while Infante/Conrad were available
Cox played Kotchman while Prado sat.
Add to these mistakes the ridiculously long-running Jordan Schafer failure, his constant harrassment of RBI machine Escobar, his insistence on keeping a worn-out Chipper Jones in the 3-spot, his overwork of Brian McCann (who will be done by age 30 thanks to the HOF manager), his use of some relievers every day while others sit for two weeks at a time, his insistence on using the worst PH in the history of MLB, his insistence on using rally-starter Jeff Bennett to blow game after game (while Bennett had to remove himself from the team by punching a door!), and constant roster mis-management that allows a loafing Garret Anderson to stay in the field and on the basepaths in late inning situations.
The cherry on top, is of course the decision to keep Kelly Johnson/Greg Norton on the roster while Brooks Conrad and other actual hitters toil in Gwinnett. How many games have Norton and Johnson positively impacted? How many would games would have been positively impacted by Conrad and others? We’ll never know. But it might have been more than Zero!
Phil
August 28th, 2009
8:15 am
They really played with a lot of passion against San Diego didn’t they.
El Bravo
August 28th, 2009
8:23 am
The Braves, much like everyone else on this blog, will be watching the playoffs on the tube…
birddawgbill
August 28th, 2009
8:25 am
The Braves need to make up a game a week on Colorado, or at least get within a game or two going into the last series of the year. The Rockies play L.A.in L.A. And L.A. has won 12 out of 15 against them this year.
Nite Owl
August 28th, 2009
8:26 am
Yes Phil, two games should overshadow two months.
Seriously, Andy Rooney is not going to be around forever. Get your resume in to 60 Minutes now.
For what it’s worth, the Latos guy who pitched for San Diego the other night looks like a beast. Look forward to many years of him vs. Hanson.
MightyQuinn
August 28th, 2009
8:32 am
CAN they still win the wild card? Sure. Would I bet money on it? Oh hell no. Will I still watch and pull for them? Yep.
Jack G.
August 28th, 2009
8:32 am
How many games can you think of that Cox blew with bad management .
Games that we could now have in the win column and not the loss column?
Anybody got any numbers or specific games in mind??
Jack
August 28th, 2009
8:35 am
I stuck a fork in them when they lost that huge lead in philly in the 8th inning in the 3rd game. This team is boring and predictable. They will lose 2/3 in philly and still some will hang on hoping. Dump the braves and get ready for a real sport. Football is here!
Nite Owl
August 28th, 2009
8:36 am
Chauncey starts at DE, Gonzo smashes whatever TE records we have, and the young defense is going to fast, deep, hard-hitting, and way better than we thought.
ST
August 28th, 2009
8:37 am
Cox is senile and has no clue how to manage. Time for him to go. Bye bobby. you”re OLD. Leave.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
8:38 am
Chef – I had my wife (who hates lottery by a MegaMillions ticket the other night. She went 0-for-6. Last time I entrust her with my investment package.
Brewdawg – I’ll fix that—thanks. (missed late update I guess)
Coach – A fine plan.
MitchC – Agreed. It’s “doable.” (See: lottery above.)
Jay –I am SO ready for college football to start.
Native – I think end situation is up in the air, pending this week. I think there’s a chance Anderson moves inside at left LT in passing situations. He can use his height, reach to knock down passes.
curtis jones
August 28th, 2009
8:38 am
Jeff..one line says it all. Braves were 39-43 at midseason. Remember last year? Everybody said, “Oh if the Braves only had starting pitching!” Well, Wren went out and got some. Quality starts almost every day. But the HOF manager blew it anyway. Cox has easily cost the team 10-20 wins. Top 10 reasons:
1. Playing Kelly Johnson while Infante/Conrad and others sat.
2. Playing Francoeur while Diaz sat.
3. Playing Kotchman while Prado sat.
4. Playing Jordan Schafer long after it was obvious he wasn’t ready.
5. Using Jeff Bennett until the idiot punched a door (thanks Jeff).
6. Keeping Norton and KJ on the team, demoting Conrad.
7. Using some relievers every day, while others sat for 2 weeks.
8. Keeping an ineffective, fading Chipper Jones in the 3-spot.
9. Mismanaging a roster, necessitating in having Garret Anderson in the field, and on the basepaths late in games.
10. Overwork of McCann, who will likely be worn out by age 30.
Most glaring mistake was the demotion of .344 hitter Conrad in favor of KJ, and Norton, whose batting average can only be read with a magnifying glass. How many games have been positively impacted by Norton or KJ? How many games WOULD have been positively impacted by Conrad? We’ll never know. But it could have been more than…Zero.
Chris
August 28th, 2009
8:39 am
Clever column, Jeff. Avoiding the poop throwers by appealing to their math skills and by not doing a times-definitely-call-for-it grumpy set of words.
Tami
August 28th, 2009
8:42 am
Thanks for the nauseating start to our already yucchy, rainy bleak Friday morning there, Jeff. So, it doesn’t look too optimistic for the homeboys…ok. And, things MIGHT not change with the other teams either. But, I’ve decided to focus on the possible next wave the Braves might catch a ride on and hope better things come of it. With Huddy coming back Monday, things COULD suddenly catch fire with the team, while the other teams COULD cool off….or not. I’m not ready to write the Braves off yet. Not until they’re mathematically eliminated.
matt r
August 28th, 2009
8:46 am
We are, at best, the 5th best team in a 16 team league. In baseball, that has you watching October on TV.
Tami
August 28th, 2009
8:47 am
P.S. Just read Curtis Jones’ comment @ 8:38….I absolutely agree with every single point you made. And, extending your comment: Why hasn’t Chipper been moved down in the batting order yet? Bobby never hesitates to move everyone else around when they’re slumping. I think it could help Chipper find his swing again, and take some of the heat off him. Who should bat in Chipper’s place right now — Diaz maybe?
oldmike
August 28th, 2009
8:51 am
Tell me Jeff, what are the REAL chances the Braves wake up next year and (sorta) push Cox into retirement? This team needs a fresh, youthful approach to the season, to each game and they are not going to get it froma 69 year manager – no matter what his resume says. I agree with Curtis J on the non moves that have cost us this season. Thanks.
Yehuda Hamer
August 28th, 2009
8:56 am
Our last seven of ten games are against the Nationals. It might come down to those games
SimpleDawg
August 28th, 2009
9:01 am
Dug too deep of hole early in the season…KJ & Frenchy killed us.
Prado on the bench….Killed us.
Having to play Diory Hernandez….killed us ( see KJ & Frenchy )
Chipper wearing down playing every day….is still killing us.
D-Low wearing down at the end of the season because he’s used up….killing us.
Prado’s headaches, just when we were beginning to soar….killed us.
Losing 2 out of 3 to the Monks….stuck the fork in us.
Thank God for Football ! Go Dawgs ! Go Falcons !
Mark
August 28th, 2009
9:09 am
It’s not that simple, If you ran those numbers the last two years at this time there was no way the Mets were not going to win the division or make the playoffs. Teams get hot and teams slump, anything is possible especially with so many head to head series coming up.
Doug
August 28th, 2009
9:18 am
Very unlikely that we will be playing in the post season, but this team is improved and we can hope that the improvement will continue with a few smart moves over the winter and help from the minors. Last year at this time we were bankrupt, but our foundation has improved.
Angus
August 28th, 2009
9:19 am
Pointless I know, in the tide of pessimism, but…..
Compare this season to last and you’ll feel better.
Consider that we’ve still got a chance (small, I know) despite:
-we don’t have a lead-off hitter
-we don’t have a clean-up hitter
-of our 4 OF’s, none can both hit and field
-Chipper, our go-to guy, has been struggling mightily (glimmer of hope last night?)
-we’re facing the dubious possibility of not having one 20 HR or 100 RBI guy.
And how about you be thankful the Braves made the moves they did? Many o’ teams we’re right where we were at the AS break – of those, no one else has done better since.
Cheer up Braves’ fans, we’re still in it and the future’s bright.
Don
August 28th, 2009
9:21 am
With out Pitching, the Braves should be leading the Division if they had a good manager. He has made and makes so many blunders that you could not even begin to list them. Not only is this season over – But the Braves fans can have no interest in the off seaseon in terms of trades/acquisitions/bringing up players – because nothin makes any difference with Cox probably continuing to be the manager. In fact, none of the talent the Braves have in the minors has any meaning if Cox continues to manage for several more years. The Braves acauired/devloped a very good Pitching Staff for this season – and what did it gain us — all efforts and acquisitions were just wasted – like flushing it down the toliet with Cox managing.
ann lewis
August 28th, 2009
9:29 am
they have losing owners, losing manager losing players time for change
Bat Masterson
August 28th, 2009
9:32 am
Jeff while I think Agnew deserves credit for being able to read those words with a straight face ,the author, that peerless paragon of perfidy, Pat Buchanan, should be recognized. Props to Pat.
Jan Spiro
August 28th, 2009
9:34 am
Jeff: that was Bill Safire who wrote that for Spiro Agnew. I believe that makes you an ” hyper, hysterical, hyprocrontiac of history”.
Smack
August 28th, 2009
9:36 am
The only issue I have is you didn’t keep digging further into the numbers to tell what if the Braves did when 90 and the Rockies and Marlins had the rug pulled out from under them. What if they had terrible Septembers and finished well below .500 for the month? I still think in the end it will be between the pitching rich teams of SF and ATL. It’s a time proven metric in these situtions, good pitching beats good hitting most of the time. With SF being able to throw Cain-Lincecum and maybe Bumgarner after roster expands, they can easily hadle full series at a time. We can go into series throwing JJ, Hanson, and Vazquez and easily be in every game. It boils down to this, can we hit? CJ has to step up, where he goes we go. McLouth needs to come back and be the best he’s been. All we need is consitent hitting. Here’s hoping it happens.
Bat Masterson
August 28th, 2009
9:44 am
While I’m all for free speech, it would seem Jay Root’s comment would be more fitting on a Timothy McVeigh fan site.
cwb
August 28th, 2009
9:45 am
My Western Civ. professor referred to him as Zero Agnew
Sonny Clusters
August 28th, 2009
9:48 am
We didn’t have no nabobs at Parkview. We was always positive and we was state championship. We didn’t have thumb problems either because we kept our thumbs healthy.
birddawgbill
August 28th, 2009
9:49 am
Hey lets not forget this is baseball. And I think the fact that the Rockies have played so far over their heads for so long is to the Braves advantage.
Required Reading | Hard Knox Sports
August 28th, 2009
9:51 am
[...] Bad news for Braves fans. [AJC] [...]
birddawgbill
August 28th, 2009
9:52 am
Any word on if Heyward is coming up in Sept.?
turd mcdoogan
August 28th, 2009
9:54 am
I think Smack is a moron. It’s gonna come down to Atlanta and Colorado for the wild card. SF aint got a chance.
Bat Masterson
August 28th, 2009
9:58 am
Whoops, I apologize , Mr. Safire it is, props to Bill.
RC35
August 28th, 2009
10:12 am
It’s a well-written column and a sobering reality check. Someone above (I don’t plan to go back and re-read every one) touched on a real sore spot for me. Several Braves players, coaches, and announcers over the past few years have talked about “meaningful games” in August and September. The last time I looked, they count April through July in the final standings as well. I know it’s good to end the season on a strong note going into the playoffs, but if the team would have won one more “ordinary game” every other week during the first four months of the season, think where we would be now…that’s in or tied for first place, by the way!
VaBravesfan
August 28th, 2009
10:13 am
birddawgbill: I read somewhere the Braves are shutting Heyward down for the year.
Justafan
August 28th, 2009
10:19 am
The Fat Lady is singing…Some people just need a hearing aid. Right Jeff?
Justafan
August 28th, 2009
10:23 am
Enter your comments here
midnite
August 28th, 2009
10:26 am
To use optimistic words of the esteemed Ace Ventura “so you’re telling me there’s a chance”
collegeballfan
August 28th, 2009
10:27 am
Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright,
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
And somewhere men are laughing, and little children shout;
But there is no joy in Mudville — mighty Casey has struck out.
TN Jeff
August 28th, 2009
10:29 am
Hmmmmmm……..when all the fans & the Hall of Fame Manager were pooh poohing the importance of games early in the season – sure wish we’d have won a BUNCH of those winnable games. Instead, we have a manager that is still trying to find his good-luck spot to watch games.
carolina fan
August 28th, 2009
10:31 am
Curtis Jones post at 8:38 gets a big thumgs up from me too. May I add recent BC blunders were the Norton PH the other night when the score was still 6-4 with two on base. The best is the dugout stare into space with Lowe getting hammered for how many runs?? So many good vents the next day about the ‘light being on and no one home’.
carolina fan
August 28th, 2009
10:31 am
Make that ‘thumbs up’
helmet head
August 28th, 2009
10:36 am
Greg Norton is Tommy Gregg
Ron E.
August 28th, 2009
10:36 am
We get it already. It’ll be tough for the Braves to make the playoffs. But the Rockies and Phillies still have to play their games and win them. Ask the 2007 Mets how hard it is to lose a large lead in September.
BeachBrave
August 28th, 2009
10:39 am
Jeff,
Any insight to the Acosta/Carlyle move beyond a bad Padres outing?
JeffHanson
August 28th, 2009
10:39 am
I dont care what the numbers say. If the Phils were to go out right now and lose seven straight games, while simulatansously the Braves were winning seven straight games; regardless of your formulas and numbers, THE BRAVES WOULD BE IN A VIRTUAL TIE WITH THE PHILLIES A WEEK FROM NOW. Period. End of Story. Ive seen it happen in baseball before and it may happen again this year with the Braves. Dont count the Braves out until they are mathematically out. Period. End of Story.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
10:43 am
Chris – Thanks. I knew middle school math would come in handy one day.
Tami – you define true fandom. I have absolutely no problem with that.
Tami – I’m not going to argue for or against Chipper being moved down. But I’ll just say that when something like that is done, it’s a huge story because Chipper has been so good for so long and is coming off a career season – and when he’s on, he’s still this team’s best player. So that’s not something that’s done easily.
Oldmike – Bobby goes when Bobby wants to go.
Bat: “peerless paragon of perfidy..” Did you spit on somebody when you said that? (pretty funny btw)
Jan Spiro: “hyper, hysterical, hyprocrontiac of history”. … My head hurts. (and Safire and I don’t hang)
Smack – I just gave you the numbers. If they can pull this off, more power to them.
BBrown
August 28th, 2009
10:45 am
Time for the rally hats. Think “METS TYPE COLLAPSE”!! It can (and did happen). Only, now we need it to happen to Colorado or LA.
NY Frenchy
August 28th, 2009
10:48 am
The Fat Lady already sang Wed. nite around 11:00 after the Pitiful Padres smoked us, this year is DONE. Why ask Why, 1. is Norton still on the roster? 2. Is Acosta still throwing BP to the other team? 3. Has Garret woke up yet? The guy has 0 passion for the game, just playing out until retirement. Do not bring him back next year, he couldnt throw anyone out @ 3rd from left field much less @ home, what a joke. Still HAVE TO add a big righty bat to the outfield or next year will be wasted again! Left field & Chipper are problem spots that have to be fixed for next year, the rest of the team is good enough & NO DO NOT trade Vazquez, hes our real #1 pitcher
Toby Hill
August 28th, 2009
10:48 am
If the Braves play 500% ball the remainder of the year they will win 84-85 games. Quiet an improvement over 2008.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
10:49 am
Bat – Now you’ve done it. It’s going to be Left-Right bashing for the next 20 comments. On second thought, thanks for the page views.
Birddawg Bill – Ironhead? (seriously, not sure)
Justafan – you said that. Hear that everybody! I didn’t say that. That was Justafan! Not me!
Helmethead – somewhere, Tommy Gregg is very angry.
JeffHanson, “I dont care what the numbers say. If the Phils were to go out right now and lose seven straight games, while simulatansously the Braves were winning seven straight games…” … I’m not even sure how to respond to that.
Sonny Clumps
August 28th, 2009
10:50 am
Jeff, when the Braves was down back in 1991 and 10 games out and they was known as a miracle team, do you think they would do that again?
reason
August 28th, 2009
10:51 am
Long shot but can the Rockies over take LA and the Braves move past LA, a slumping team and SF?
coach smith
August 28th, 2009
10:55 am
You can’t look at numbers like that and say “if so and so wins this, then so and so has to win this to catch them” WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES to use such long range what if’s with numbers
How about this…the Braves are 4.5 out of the WC and 7 out of the EAST
What happens if they win they NEXT 2 games and the ROCKIES and (obviously) the Phillies lose those next 2?
Then the Braves are 2.5 out of the WC and 5 out of the East and suddenly your whole perspective can change THAT FAST
Michael
August 28th, 2009
10:58 am
It’s about to the point where the Braves need to win the next 7, and then see where that puts them. Obviously that means sweeping the Phils & Marlins, an admittedly very tall order. And they better hope the Giants win at least 2 of 3 from the Rockies, because the Rockies schedule starts getting easy after this weekend (of their 31 remaining games after this weekend, only 9 are against teams with winning records).
The final nail isn’t in the coffin yet, but the undertaker has the hammer in hand.
Smack
August 28th, 2009
10:59 am
turd mcdoogan, in response to you, your name says it all. Jeff, I was just saying that once again there is another side of the coin that you fail to look at. You went with the law of averages and as a smart person has told me in discussing this post off-blog, you fail to put into account any outliers. What if the Rockies wake up and realize they are overachievers? A long losing streak here and few blown series there the winning percentages for a given small time period gets completly scewed. Just becasue you have done great for 8 weeks does not mean you will the next 4. The important thing to realize o great mathmatician, it’s not over till you lose your “magic” number.
Paul In Richmond
August 28th, 2009
11:01 am
Watch the Braves sweep the Phils this weekend. Just to torture us for another week of faint hopes…
rob
August 28th, 2009
11:02 am
I agree that the Rockies and Phils are just too far in front to make it this year, but the Braves are going to be a winning team this year playing relevant baseball in September. That’s a marked improvement from the past three years. I fully expect next year’s squad to challenge the Phils or win the wild card. The future is bright for this team.
Michael
August 28th, 2009
11:05 am
Oh, and 13 of the Braves next 16 games are on the road, and 10 of those are against Philly, Florida, & St. Louis. To say that it’s now or never is an understatement.
Joseph
August 28th, 2009
11:07 am
Braves are out for 2010 barrring a last min collapse by Colorado. They do however need to get 2nd in the east and 2nd in the wild card to have some serious momentum going into 2010. If they slack off the rest of the year knowing that they cannot really catch the the Phils or the Rock-heads, that will not bode well for the beginning of 2010. we need MOMENTUM regardless of whether we can catch up or not.
Herschel Talker
August 28th, 2009
11:11 am
Schultzie – great response to JeffHanson. What a fool.
turd mcdoogan
August 28th, 2009
11:13 am
Smack- The Rockies arn’t gonna “wake up and realize they are overacheivers”. Jim Tracy is too good of a manager to let that happen. you so stupid.
Angus
August 28th, 2009
11:19 am
Tim Kirkjian gives us a reason for optimism:
“The Giants also have their starting pitching in perfect order for this series. They have arguably the best pitcher in the National League in Tim Lincecum going on Friday night; maybe their hottest pitcher, Barry Zito, goes against Jason Marquis on Saturday; and Matt Cain faces Jason Hammel in Sunday’s series finale. It’s a perfect setup of righty-lefty-righty for San Francisco.”
We have decided advantages vs. the Phil’s tonight and Sunday – hope for a miracle tomorrow (Lowe vs. Lee). And, beyond the unknown of Hudson vs. Johnson Monday, we’ve got the better of all the pitching match-ups vs. the Fish.
Original Jon
August 28th, 2009
11:19 am
I will tell you what I see Mr Schultz. I see alot of IFs. IF this team does that or IF this team does this. Baseball is baseball and anything could happen on the drop of a dime. Why dont you run these numbers, what would the Phillies or Rockies project at if they would have kept at their first half pace?
Catfish
August 28th, 2009
11:20 am
They pay you to come up with these topics?
submariner
August 28th, 2009
11:25 am
After this weekend, you all can focus on football, because these guys are done and they don’t want to win from the bullpen catcher all the way up to Bobby Cox.
London Calling
August 28th, 2009
11:27 am
All you really shown is that we are behind the leaders in the Division & Wild Card races. So? We’re not favourites, but we are far from out of it.
And then on come the Cox hating morons…
Conrad was a .344 hitter over about 30 at-bats! In his career is is a .250 singles hitter, and not great defensively. He is not the answer.
Prado had a groin injury for most of the season and couldn’t play every day. How often do you haters need to be told this before you grasp this simple fact?
Diaz started everyday last year in left and stunk. He’s better now, but he’s no everyday player.
Anyone who thinks Chipper should be dropped down the order is a MORON. He’s a sure-fire first ballot HOFer in a slump. Putting players in a situation where any slump or slip is going to be punished is guaranteed to stop them from performing.
McCann is being no more “overworked” than any other starting catcher.
Whenever one of the lesser used pitchers is used, and gives up a run, you guys go nuts (remember Medlen in the extra inning game the other day? Apparently Soriano should have gone two innings according to you dingbats).
Cox is criticised for pulling the starters too early and overworking the bullpen. He’s criticised for leaving the starters in too long until the give up the big inning. He’s criticised for using the same relief pitchers, and for using different ones, it goes on and on.
You think you’re special, don’t you. You have the real insight, greater than all those involved in the game who say Cox is great. Well, you don’t. You can go onto the blogs for any other team, and you’ll see the same garbage, the same nit-picking over minor decisions and minor players, the same relentless hatred, just different players & different managers. There are Torre-haters, Gonzales-haters, LaRussa-haters, Bochy-haters, Piniella-haters (OK, I’ll go for that one). They all have one thing in common – a complete misunderstanding of the game of baseball.
ron mexico
August 28th, 2009
11:27 am
Is making the playoffs do-able? Yes. So is winning the lottery.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
11:29 am
Reason – Colorado passing LA was more plausible before the Dodgers won the last 2 games of that series … even so, chasing LA instead wouldn’t be good news for Braves because Dodgers have a better record than Rockies now, if you follow.
Coach Smith – all that’s true. But the numbers are the numbers. The teams must still play at those dictated paces the rest of the year for there to be a change.
Catfish – no, actually they just pay me to respond to you. The blogs I do for free.
Smack
August 28th, 2009
11:29 am
Turd, Tracy a good manager? Really? How did LA and Pittsburgh pan out again? LA Dodgers have a winner as a manager. SF has a winner for a manager. ATL., has a winner of a manager. Colorado does not. They have a beat up “overacheiving” pitching staff. LA just proved that. Until they get Buck Commander Cook back, the Dodgers and the Giants will continue to poke holes in that pitching balloon till it pops. We have the best staff of the top 4 teams in the wild card hands down. Now, like I said earlier, and as it has been all year, the offense has to do its part.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
11:30 am
Ron Mexico — hey, you looked pretty good last night.
David
August 28th, 2009
11:33 am
The Braves should have one of the easier September schedules. They have 35 games left.
Phillies (6), assume they go 4-2
Cardinals (3), assume they go 2-1
Marlins (7), assume they go 4-3
Astros (3), assume they go 2-1
Reds (3), assume they go 2-1
Mets (6), assume they go 4-2
Nationals (7), assume they go 5-2
That’s 23-12 and get’s them to 90 wins and might get them the wildcard if the Rockies and Giants cool off. One thing is certain. They need to win every series, or have a few sweeps if they don’t. And they can’t lay another egg like they did against the Pad’s. It’s not impossible, especially if Chipper and Escobar heat up again.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
11:36 am
David — so you’re assuming the Braves go 6-3 against the Phillies and Cardinals, or 10-6 against those two teams and the Marlins? Let’s see how that plays out and then get back to me.
Bat Masterson
August 28th, 2009
11:36 am
Thanks Jeff, and no I did not spit. I don’t move my lips, whether typing or reading, unreasonably proud of that.
Gene
August 28th, 2009
11:37 am
If the Braves can’t whip San Diego at home, they don’t belong in post season. However, they may slip into the wildcard where they will be quickly trounced. Tonight I will be watching the Cards and Smoltzie.
MVick
August 28th, 2009
11:37 am
I think Jeff is scared of Curtis Jones.
Gene
August 28th, 2009
11:41 am
If they can’t whip SD at home, the Braves don’t belong in the post season. They may squeak into the wildcard where they will be quickly trounced. I am watching Smoltzie and the Cards tonight, anyway.
Yogi Bear
August 28th, 2009
11:43 am
Any team that can’t beat the Padres in late August, is not going to make the playoffs.
fieldofdreams
August 28th, 2009
11:43 am
If Chipper hits the Braves can win the Wild Card, without him, they’ll miss. The future HOF’er with the self-described, impressive “body of work” is making a lot of dough, now’s the time to earn it.
Mitchell
August 28th, 2009
11:46 am
The numbers tell me that Greg Norton and Kelly Johnson shouldn’t be on this team. They tell me that Bobby stuck with Jordan Schafer two months too many and that Jeff Francoeur couldn’t have been traded soon enough.
They tell me that we have a manager who doesn’t seem to appreciate the severity of the situation. If we were to really have a chance we’d drop kick Norton, Kelly, Manny, Gorecki and O’Flaherty and bring back Conrad, Brandon Jones to give us the additional power and speed we lack and get somebody from Gwinnett who knows how to throw a f***ing strike and who doesn’t blow up at the umpire for missing a strike call or says that the team let up after he gives up four runs.
The numbers show that we are a capable team that lacks the leadership to make it a great team.
Blackberry Cobbler
August 28th, 2009
11:47 am
Since the All-Star break, the Braves have played well. But STILL, everytime they get in position to make a serious move they falter everytime. This Padres series was just the latest example.
Dove season openings Sept 5
The Dawgs start Sept 5
Deer bow season opens Sept 12
I don’t much care what the Braves do from this point on. Frankly, I’ve seen all of Booby Cox and Chipper Jones slump I can stand for one season.
61 year Braves Fan
August 28th, 2009
11:54 am
Great post by Curtis Jones today. Right on the money about Cox. He mismanaged the first half of
the season terribly.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
11:56 am
Mitchell, I don’t want to turn this blog into a Bobby Cox referendum (maybe next week). But do you really believe he doesn’t “appreciate the severity of the situation”?
Aunt Esther
August 28th, 2009
11:56 am
Enter your comments here
Aunt Esther
August 28th, 2009
11:58 am
I do not think it is as bad as it seems–if the Braves take care of business. They didn’t this week and they’re 4.5 out when they could have been 2.5 out.
The wild card is there for the taking, they just have to take care of business.
Dave
August 28th, 2009
12:03 pm
I will not argue that the Braves need to play .650 ball or better to catch the Rockies.
What bothers me is that most of the posters seem to think this is an impossibility.
With the excellent pitching the Braves have, I believe that .800 ball is possible, though not likely.
I hope they do make a run! It will make for an interesting September.
ynot
August 28th, 2009
12:10 pm
that’s why they play the games. Jeff, how soon do you flip to the last page of a book to see how it ends. You seem like an almost to the end guy, but you just can’t help yourself. Giants better do some sweeping this weekend; for the Braves sake.
TomB
August 28th, 2009
12:11 pm
Jeff – In 1991, the Braves won eight out of their final ten games, including eight consecutive wins during that stretch, to win the NL West championship.Amazing, but true. Its funny, but some teams do get hot while others simultaneously slump. How a team plays with a seven game advantage can change in a hurry if the lead becomes only three.
Mitchell
August 28th, 2009
12:23 pm
Uh, kind of.
It’s not like I’m here with “No More Bobby” as my screen name. I don’t call him “Booby” or any other assortment of insulting names or talk about his domestic life like some people have been known to do.
I’m saying that when he says things like “you’re not out of it until you’re 12 or 13 back” or when he compares Derek Lowe’s meltdown in New York to a “Greg Maddux inning”, he comes across as someone who isn’t being realistic. Rational might even be a better word for it.
I’m saying it’s not about the numbers. As ciritical as I and we are all allowed to be, I still think it’s possible for the Braves to win the wild card but not as long as Bobby sticks with guys like Norton and Kelly and Manny and Gorecki and O’Flaherty who clearly are not helping us win games.
Hey, forget what I think. Look at the numbers.
Oh! Zinger.
Mitchell
August 28th, 2009
12:26 pm
Jeff I would glad to follow up on your question but your blog just ate my post.
WTF man? Uh, I mean, what’s that all about, sir?
Mitchell
August 28th, 2009
12:29 pm
There goes another one.
What did I do to deserve this? I just want to be heard man.
Mitchell
August 28th, 2009
12:30 pm
Nevermind.
Bobby's Retirement Train Wreck
August 28th, 2009
1:02 pm
Jeff, member Curtis Jones raises some fine points… why do you not reply to these observant comments on Bobby Cox? His use of Norton? Etc.
As someone who’s been a devout Braves fan for a long time, I’m confused as to why Cox’s decisions to leave a pitcher like Kawakami in on Saturday (or any day) past the fifth inning when MLB scouts have observed the aged rookie has problems with velocity after 60 pitches? We would have been better off with Medlen. Why is that Cox always leaves in pitchers when they consistently miss the zone (think Soriano/Gonzo during the horrendous home run derby in the July series against the Marlins)? Why stick to the 7-8-9 plan of rotation>Gonzo>Soriano if Gonzo is pitching fine in the 8th?
Cox is still playing the same formula he always has… This formula worked in 1 of 14 playoff runs, and has done nothing in terms of postseason these past 4 years.
Cox, as Curtis Jones implies with his 10-point list, has simply lost the proactive, mental agility required to be a MLB manager, and certainly required for this budget-eating contract.
Geo
August 28th, 2009
1:16 pm
Lets get it started and win the next 7 games straight
Born2Buzz
August 28th, 2009
1:18 pm
Well we keep thinking the Bravos are dead and they keep hanging on by a fingernail. But this will be the penultimate week. The next 7 games are really, really, really it. If the Braves are still 4-1/2 back or worse after these 7 games then it’s truly over. But until then let’s not wash our hands of the season.
All that being said, if Bobby sends Norton up with the winning run in scoring position and he fails one more time I just might kick my TV in. Bobby just figures the guy has got to get a hit sometime, right?
Hercule Poirot
August 28th, 2009
1:20 pm
Kenshin Kawakami must really be a lively presence in the clubhouse, because Mark Bradley defends him like he’s not the weakest link in the rotation. Yes, he’s had some good starts, but he’s had a bunch of short, cruddy ones, too. Yet, a first baseman who was hitting 40 points higher with the same number of RBIs as the guy he was traded for was an “All-American out,” according to Bradley.
Players are mostly their results, not their personalities. Speaking of which, some people who’ve met him say Bradley can be quite the pill, too.
Mark Biles
August 28th, 2009
1:23 pm
I know the math is against us and we probably won’t win the NL East or the wild card, but 2009 sure has been a lot easier to take than 2006 through 2008 were. I believe 2010 should be our year if we can get some corner outfielders with some pop, sign LaRoche, get another quality reliever and keep our rotation in tact.
Sonny Clumps
August 28th, 2009
1:38 pm
When we was younger we use to say that when pitchers struggle like the way Kawakami does that meant they was best suited for the bull pen. When they was put in bull pens after having bad starts they was able to usually turn around.
Sonny Clumps
August 28th, 2009
1:41 pm
When we was younger and we had pitchers pitch the way Kawakami was this season we would suggest putting them in the bullpen, Jeff. When they was getting the bullpen innings they was usually able to pull together. Maybe we should give Kawakami a Dairy Queen burger and we Clumps’ was always great pitchers so we could teach him how to pitch like a real baseball player.
Train Wreck Bystander
August 28th, 2009
1:51 pm
So the Braves at the bare minimum need to win 2 of every three and hope the Rockies stumble…
It could happen. Might not, but it might.
You have to admit this is better than seasons of the recent past, though.
Braves Fan in N.Y.
August 28th, 2009
1:57 pm
You know what’s the toughest thing about being a Braves fan here in Upstate New York? It’s trying to explain those pathetic crowds at Turner Field in the heat of a pennant/wild card race. Hey, it’s almost Labor Day. We’re still in the hunt. The future looks bright. Why so ornery?
dcp
August 28th, 2009
1:59 pm
Jeff
Good call on not responding to the Phillies losing the next 7 games and the Braves winning the next 7 in a row. There is no shot of that – that would mean 2 losses for Cliff Lee in there, not to mention every other starter the Phillies have, given their starting rotation has been very solid – the last 40 games the starters have gone 7+ innings 19 times. This Phillies team is better tha last years’ save for their closer. The Braves had another good chance to gain ground and lost 2 of 3 to an awful team at home. They are past the point of taking series – they need sweeps and I don’t see it. Everyone is raving about their last 40 games or how they have had a great run – the two teams they have not been better than and need to catch will suddenly stop winning and the Braves will keep it up. It’s just not likely.
Reid Adair
August 28th, 2009
2:02 pm
The numbers merely show the grim reality of what the Braves have been battling all season … an offense that is, at best, inconsistent.
JR
August 28th, 2009
2:05 pm
If we can send Hank Aaron, Dale Murphey, Phil Neikro, Greg Maddox, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Andruw Jones out to pasture in the twilight of their careers, surely we can send Chipper Jones along. He could have a couple of good years left as a dh in the American if he didn’t have to drag his worn-out body out to third base every day.
dcp
August 28th, 2009
2:08 pm
AMEN Reid. To have the pitching they have had and still be trailing is discouraging. But I cannot tolerate any more whining about “well if Hanson started the year it would have been different, or if we had a better series against the Nats early, or if Soriano did not blow that save in LA, we would be much closer”. Every team can say that – i am sure the Phillies would say if Lidge did not blow 9 saves they would be 12 games up right now, I’m sure the Rockies would say they would be miles ahead of where they are “if” they had a good start in April and May” You are what you are at this stage, and the Braves are trailing based on their enture body of work just like everyone else.
Braves Fan in N.Y.
August 28th, 2009
2:08 pm
Thanks, Blackberry Cobbler.
Now I know why attendance sucks at Turner Field. Y’all are getting mentally prepared for dove season and deer bow season.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
2:17 pm
For the record, let me re-state what I’ve said before: Pending off-season moves, I feel really good about this team next season. You factor in the current roster, plus the possibility that Jordan Schafer won’t be a train wreck, plus a full season with McLouth, they could be pretty good. Other issues are fixable — not nearly as big as the ones before this season.
varoadrunner
August 28th, 2009
2:20 pm
David
The Braves should have one of the easier September schedules. They have 35 games left.
Phillies (6), assume they go 6-0
Cardinals (3), assume they go 3-0
Marlins (7), assume they go 7-0
Astros (3), assume they go 3-0
Reds (3), assume they go 3-0
Mets (6), assume they go 6-0
Nationals (7), assume they go 6-0
I agree , so let’s ASSUME they win it all
dcp
August 28th, 2009
2:26 pm
Jeff’s point is valid – the team is headed in the right direction. Everyone should be realistic – for years it was the Phillies that always “felt” they were as good as the Braves and in the end the Braves were better and won the division – right now the Phillies are just plain better – everyone needs to live with that for the time being and hope the Braves avoid injuries and keep plugging the holes they have.
Elon Brave
August 28th, 2009
2:28 pm
Shultz, you’re a good writer and a straight shooter. For that, I respect you. I also understand you’re just reporting the numbers, etc., but you can be a heck of a buzz kill sometimes when I just don’t think it’s necessary.
Why not report the numbers by saying something like “well, it’ll be tough, but if the Braves can win X% of their next X games while Colorado goes X% over there next X games the Braves may still be in this.” That would be just as true as the “glass half empty version”.
What’s with all the doom and gloom? Attendance has been horrible lately even though before the Padres series we were playing good baseball. Is your tone really necessary? It’s a GOOD thing if people are excited about the chances (albeit slim ones) of the Braves playing in October for the first time in four years. The excitement fills the seats, invigorates the team, and increases your page views (you talk about them a lot).
Like I said, you’re a good writer and I always make it a point to read your stuff but I, like most other people who read the blogs daily have an emotional investment in this team. When every peice you write (recently) is negative despite this team having a bigger upside and being more exciting than any in recent memory… well, it’s going to rile people up because it feels like you’re trying to pick a fight.
And maybe that’s your niche; I don’t know. But if it is, why? These blogs gives both sides (us and you) a unique opportunity to have a two sided conversation – that is a really neat idea. Knowing that this will be two sided conversation then, why not try to build a positive report?
If I misread (the peice or the implications) I apologize. Cheers.
Joe Fan
August 28th, 2009
2:35 pm
There is still no announcement from the Braves that Cox’s contract has been extended for 2010. So there is hope they will encourage him to move upstairs and if that doesn’t work, tell him its not his decision anymore and its either that or the farm. Then possibly the Braves will have a manager who recognizes just how improtant it is to win games in April as it is to win in September.
Joshhh...
August 28th, 2009
2:39 pm
I think the numbers tell me you’re an idiot…
Stop saying “clip” & just keep watching…
varoadrunner
August 28th, 2009
2:49 pm
I do not believe the Braves will REMOVE Cox. He will have to retire or move upstairs although he’s already been a Braves GM.
I do wish he would hand over the team to someone else.
Ralph
August 28th, 2009
3:03 pm
I take particular notice of the one stat showing the record of the Rockies before and after firing of Hurdle and hiring Tracy, just imagine what would have happened if the Braves had fired Cox at the same time.
Frontman
August 28th, 2009
3:16 pm
And why, pray tell, is Tim Hudson starting in place of Kawikami? In case you haven’t noticed, BC, Derek Lowe is your #5 right now…
David
August 28th, 2009
3:36 pm
Jeff, yes I did assume the Braves go 10-6 against the Phils, Cards and Marlins. They have to play well against these teams if they expect to make the playoffs. I wasn’t saying they would do it, just that it wouldn’t necessarily take a 21-game win streak like the Rockies had in ‘07 to get into the postseason. But they have to play well and win almost every series. If they don’t, they better sweep the Reds, Mets and Nats to stand a chance.
curtis jones
August 28th, 2009
3:39 pm
Hey London Calling: I may not be a baseball expert like you, but this is what I know. No post-season for the Braves. Again. If you like that, you must love Bobby Cox.
David
August 28th, 2009
3:43 pm
Bottom line, I don’t share your grim outlook.
D.W.
August 28th, 2009
3:47 pm
This season is toast. It was toast when the season began with Bobby Cox as manager. No one seems to get it, but that bad start and inconsistency throughout = Bobby Cox. Hopefully we won’t start next season with the same problem (Bobby Cox).
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
4:25 pm
David, as stated earlier, I don’t have a problem with any fan who is still hopeful. That’s the essence of being a fan.
Tomy Fournier
August 28th, 2009
4:32 pm
ATLANTA IS….OUT…OK????…BY…BY!!!!
Matt
August 28th, 2009
6:37 pm
Jeff, take a stats class. Not all wins are created equal because a win against the phillies is obviously a loss for them and it skews the numbers considerably. Rerun the numbers with a Braves win tonight and the numbers don’t look as bad. 2 in a row and they look reasonable. It’s called being mutually exclusive. Your numbers for the Rockies hold though because they don’t play each other.
richbrave
August 28th, 2009
7:54 pm
JEFF:
Are we reduced to this – late June? We wasted too many early season games – heck, we still are. Witness the last series. We COULD have been only two back of COLORADO, a game up on the GIANTS, two on the MARLINS, and four on the CUBBIES, but no-o-o. These guys just keep on finding ways to take the hard road to the post-season.
Born2Buzz
August 29th, 2009
11:03 am
Snap shot of the season last night…down 0-1, men on 1st and 3rd with 1 out and your star hitter up at the plate and… he pops out to short.
Ouch.
Twitter Trackbacks for Braves fans, here's the numbers (cover your eyes) | Jeff Schultz [ajc.com] on Topsy.com
August 29th, 2009
11:36 am
[...] Braves fans, here’s the numbers (cover your eyes) | Jeff Schultz blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2009/08/28/braves-fans-heres-the-numbers-cover-your-eyes/ – view page – cached The Braves would have to play at an unlikely pace the rest of the Tseason to reach the post-season. — From the page [...]
Jeff Schultz
August 29th, 2009
1:08 pm
Matt — I was pretty decent in math. Even if Braves had won last night and swept the Phillies: 1) Does it help? Absolutely. But, 2) The math works out the same. Beating the Phillies only “skews” the numbers., as you say, if the bottom line changes. If the Braves/Phillies play at the same overall paces as written, it doesn’t matter who beats whom.
Tomy Fournier
August 29th, 2009
1:33 pm
Braves…”REST IN PEACE”…AMEN!!!
docbailey
August 29th, 2009
4:02 pm
to braves fan in N.Y.- At the professional level of sports in this region, fans on the whole, only support winners. Take for example during the 14 years the Braves were one of the elite in baseball, overall the Falcons sucked. So the braves enjoyed sellouts and the falcons blackouts. And this is because college football rules in this area of the country ! Places like upstate N.Y. have only professional sports to watch, so they live and die with that team. Here, that is how it is with college football. Don’t criticize sports fans in the south based on how fans in your area of N.Y. support their teams. You are talking about two completely different worlds—
JEB
August 29th, 2009
10:11 pm
OK, here are some “hopeful numbers”:
With tonight’s game (Saturday) the Braves and Phillies play each other 5 times. If the Braves win those 5 (hope they can) then it’s just a 3 game difference.
The Braves just need to win 3 more than the Phillies to tie for division lead and just 4 more games to win the division.
Whatever the percentages are.
Now, let’s just keep hoping and see how this all plays out!
Numbers | Chanel News | News | Breaking News | News Headlines | Latest News | World News | US News | Entertainment News | Daily News | News Channel | Sports News
August 30th, 2009
5:02 am
[...] Miami and won the national title, the Big Ten seemed poised for a renaissance. … Braves fans, here's the numbers (cover your eyes)You get only numbers. I figure in this case, numbers tell the story. ♦ EAST: If the Phillies [...]
abudefdef
August 30th, 2009
8:31 am
Braves smoked one of the best pitchers in baseball-Cliff Lee…
Braves have the starting pitching to keep ANY lineup off the bases and off the scoreboard…
Braves have the ability to go on a winning streak of 8-10 games, even with injuries to our hitters…
Braves are NOT out of the Wild Card race or the NL East race-remember the Giants collapse or the Mets collapse…
KEEP THE FAITH BRAVES NATION!!!
Keep the Faith!!
***WHOOOOAAAA OOOOOAAAAA WHOOOOAAAA OOOOAAAAA***
**TOMAHAWK-A-CHOPPIN**
Average Joe
August 30th, 2009
8:48 am
You know, I wish we could just enjoy the rest of the season, keep whatever misplaced optimism (according to Jeff) we have, and just see what happens in the next month. I seriously doubt that anyone believed at this same point in the last two seasons that the Mets would plummet as prodigiously as they did, either. Yet, history speaks for itself.
They may not win the East or capture the wildcard, and that’s really ok. I haven’t enjoyed a season like this in many years, and I’m full of hope that this current trend will carry into the years ahead. They’ve greatly improved this season, and that’s at least a positive step.
So, on August 28, 2010, let’s predict what Jeff will have as his lead, shall we…something like….13 GAMES UP WITH 31 TO GO, THE BRAVES CAN STILL LOSE THIS THING!!!! Go Braves. Let’s give ‘em a finish!
Born2Buzz
August 30th, 2009
9:16 am
I’ve buried this team so many times this year, but here they are only 3-1/2 out of the wildcard.
As I said before, let’s see where they stand at the end of this 7 game stretch against the Phils and Marlins.
bravesfansince57
August 30th, 2009
9:55 am
The voice of doom rises again…. Mr. Schultz, go stick your head back in the sand and let the fans enjoy the possibility of a pennant race again.
John Q True Story
September 1st, 2009
5:26 pm
[...] never would have been arrested.” You fire a unregistered gun off in a public … Braves fans, here's the numbers (cover your eyes)End of Story. Chris – Thanks. I knew middle school math would come in handy one day. Tami [...]
Sonny is Forrest
September 1st, 2009
9:24 pm
Or…the Bravos could win three in a row and the wild card leaders could lose 3 in a row and we could catch them before next weekend.
Ask the 2007 Mets (and Tom Glavine) how those numbers worked out!
Dog in Fla
September 4th, 2009
6:38 pm
“What do the numbers tell you?”
The Braves miss the playoffs again. That was a safe bet even before the arithmetical exercise which shows that missing the playoffs is a sure thing.