Braves fans, here’s the numbers (cover your eyes)
The Braves celebrated a win Thursday. But they'll need quite a few more.
I know sometimes baseball fans get angry when us nattering nabobs of negativism (copyright: tax cheat and lousy official scorer Spiro Agnew) suggest that their team might be hopelessly out of the race.
So I won’t do that this morning. Yes, the Braves just lost two out of three games at home to the San Diego Padres, a last-place team, at a time when they really needed to sweep somebody at home, especially a last-place team. But keep hope alive, right? Uh, where was I?
So here goes. You will get no negative verbiage from me. You get only numbers. I figure in this case, numbers tell the story.
First, here’s how it looks in the N.L. East:
Team W L Pct. GB
Philadelphia 73 52 .584 –
Atlanta 67 60 .528 7
Florida 67 60 .528 7
And here’s how it looks in the N.L. wild card picture
Team W L Pct. GB
Colorado 72 56 .563 –
San Francisco 69 59 .539 3
Atlanta 67 60 .528 4.5
Florida 67 60 .528 4.5
And here are all the bottom lines:
♦ EAST: If the Phillies continue to play at a .584 pace, they’ll go 22-15 in their last 37 games and finish 95-67. The Braves would have to go 28-7 (.800) just to tie.
♦ EAST: If the Phillies play at just above a .500 clip, 19-18, the rest of the way, they’ll finish 92-70. The Braves would have to go 25-10 (.714) to catch them.
(For the record, Philadelphia was 39-37 on July 2. It’s 34-15 since. The Phillies have been playing at a .694 clip for nearly two months.)
♦ WILD CARD: If the Rockies continue to play at a .563 pace, they’ll go 19-15 in their final 34 games and finish 91-71. The Braves would have to go 24-11(.686) to tie them.
♦ WILD CARD: If the Rockies play at a .500 clip, 17-17, the rest of the way, they’ll finish 89-73. The Braves would have to go 22-13 (.629) to catch them.
(For the record, Colorado started the season 18-28 but is 54-28 since firing manager Clint Hurdle May 28 and replacing him with Jim Tracy. The Rockies have been playing at a .659 clip for three months.)
♦ BRAVES RECAP: They were 39-43 on July 6. They are 28-17 since. That’s a .622 clip, which is less than .800, .714, .686 or .629.
OK, I’m done. Hopefully I didn’t ruin your breakfast.
What do the numbers tell you?
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
168 comments Add your comment
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
4:25 pm
David, as stated earlier, I don’t have a problem with any fan who is still hopeful. That’s the essence of being a fan.
Tomy Fournier
August 28th, 2009
4:32 pm
ATLANTA IS….OUT…OK????…BY…BY!!!!
Matt
August 28th, 2009
6:37 pm
Jeff, take a stats class. Not all wins are created equal because a win against the phillies is obviously a loss for them and it skews the numbers considerably. Rerun the numbers with a Braves win tonight and the numbers don’t look as bad. 2 in a row and they look reasonable. It’s called being mutually exclusive. Your numbers for the Rockies hold though because they don’t play each other.
richbrave
August 28th, 2009
7:54 pm
JEFF:
Are we reduced to this – late June? We wasted too many early season games – heck, we still are. Witness the last series. We COULD have been only two back of COLORADO, a game up on the GIANTS, two on the MARLINS, and four on the CUBBIES, but no-o-o. These guys just keep on finding ways to take the hard road to the post-season.
Born2Buzz
August 29th, 2009
11:03 am
Snap shot of the season last night…down 0-1, men on 1st and 3rd with 1 out and your star hitter up at the plate and… he pops out to short.
Ouch.
Twitter Trackbacks for Braves fans, here's the numbers (cover your eyes) | Jeff Schultz [ajc.com] on Topsy.com
August 29th, 2009
11:36 am
[...] Braves fans, here’s the numbers (cover your eyes) | Jeff Schultz blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2009/08/28/braves-fans-heres-the-numbers-cover-your-eyes/ – view page – cached The Braves would have to play at an unlikely pace the rest of the Tseason to reach the post-season. — From the page [...]
Jeff Schultz
August 29th, 2009
1:08 pm
Matt — I was pretty decent in math. Even if Braves had won last night and swept the Phillies: 1) Does it help? Absolutely. But, 2) The math works out the same. Beating the Phillies only “skews” the numbers., as you say, if the bottom line changes. If the Braves/Phillies play at the same overall paces as written, it doesn’t matter who beats whom.
Tomy Fournier
August 29th, 2009
1:33 pm
Braves…”REST IN PEACE”…AMEN!!!
docbailey
August 29th, 2009
4:02 pm
to braves fan in N.Y.- At the professional level of sports in this region, fans on the whole, only support winners. Take for example during the 14 years the Braves were one of the elite in baseball, overall the Falcons sucked. So the braves enjoyed sellouts and the falcons blackouts. And this is because college football rules in this area of the country ! Places like upstate N.Y. have only professional sports to watch, so they live and die with that team. Here, that is how it is with college football. Don’t criticize sports fans in the south based on how fans in your area of N.Y. support their teams. You are talking about two completely different worlds—
JEB
August 29th, 2009
10:11 pm
OK, here are some “hopeful numbers”:
With tonight’s game (Saturday) the Braves and Phillies play each other 5 times. If the Braves win those 5 (hope they can) then it’s just a 3 game difference.
The Braves just need to win 3 more than the Phillies to tie for division lead and just 4 more games to win the division.
Whatever the percentages are.
Now, let’s just keep hoping and see how this all plays out!
Numbers | Chanel News | News | Breaking News | News Headlines | Latest News | World News | US News | Entertainment News | Daily News | News Channel | Sports News
August 30th, 2009
5:02 am
[...] Miami and won the national title, the Big Ten seemed poised for a renaissance. … Braves fans, here's the numbers (cover your eyes)You get only numbers. I figure in this case, numbers tell the story. ♦ EAST: If the Phillies [...]
abudefdef
August 30th, 2009
8:31 am
Braves smoked one of the best pitchers in baseball-Cliff Lee…
Braves have the starting pitching to keep ANY lineup off the bases and off the scoreboard…
Braves have the ability to go on a winning streak of 8-10 games, even with injuries to our hitters…
Braves are NOT out of the Wild Card race or the NL East race-remember the Giants collapse or the Mets collapse…
KEEP THE FAITH BRAVES NATION!!!
Keep the Faith!!
***WHOOOOAAAA OOOOOAAAAA WHOOOOAAAA OOOOAAAAA***
**TOMAHAWK-A-CHOPPIN**
Average Joe
August 30th, 2009
8:48 am
You know, I wish we could just enjoy the rest of the season, keep whatever misplaced optimism (according to Jeff) we have, and just see what happens in the next month. I seriously doubt that anyone believed at this same point in the last two seasons that the Mets would plummet as prodigiously as they did, either. Yet, history speaks for itself.
They may not win the East or capture the wildcard, and that’s really ok. I haven’t enjoyed a season like this in many years, and I’m full of hope that this current trend will carry into the years ahead. They’ve greatly improved this season, and that’s at least a positive step.
So, on August 28, 2010, let’s predict what Jeff will have as his lead, shall we…something like….13 GAMES UP WITH 31 TO GO, THE BRAVES CAN STILL LOSE THIS THING!!!! Go Braves. Let’s give ‘em a finish!
Born2Buzz
August 30th, 2009
9:16 am
I’ve buried this team so many times this year, but here they are only 3-1/2 out of the wildcard.
As I said before, let’s see where they stand at the end of this 7 game stretch against the Phils and Marlins.
bravesfansince57
August 30th, 2009
9:55 am
The voice of doom rises again…. Mr. Schultz, go stick your head back in the sand and let the fans enjoy the possibility of a pennant race again.
John Q True Story
September 1st, 2009
5:26 pm
[...] never would have been arrested.” You fire a unregistered gun off in a public … Braves fans, here's the numbers (cover your eyes)End of Story. Chris – Thanks. I knew middle school math would come in handy one day. Tami [...]
Sonny is Forrest
September 1st, 2009
9:24 pm
Or…the Bravos could win three in a row and the wild card leaders could lose 3 in a row and we could catch them before next weekend.
Ask the 2007 Mets (and Tom Glavine) how those numbers worked out!
Dog in Fla
September 4th, 2009
6:38 pm
“What do the numbers tell you?”
The Braves miss the playoffs again. That was a safe bet even before the arithmetical exercise which shows that missing the playoffs is a sure thing.