Braves fans, here’s the numbers (cover your eyes)
The Braves celebrated a win Thursday. But they'll need quite a few more.
I know sometimes baseball fans get angry when us nattering nabobs of negativism (copyright: tax cheat and lousy official scorer Spiro Agnew) suggest that their team might be hopelessly out of the race.
So I won’t do that this morning. Yes, the Braves just lost two out of three games at home to the San Diego Padres, a last-place team, at a time when they really needed to sweep somebody at home, especially a last-place team. But keep hope alive, right? Uh, where was I?
So here goes. You will get no negative verbiage from me. You get only numbers. I figure in this case, numbers tell the story.
First, here’s how it looks in the N.L. East:
Team W L Pct. GB
Philadelphia 73 52 .584 –
Atlanta 67 60 .528 7
Florida 67 60 .528 7
And here’s how it looks in the N.L. wild card picture
Team W L Pct. GB
Colorado 72 56 .563 –
San Francisco 69 59 .539 3
Atlanta 67 60 .528 4.5
Florida 67 60 .528 4.5
And here are all the bottom lines:
♦ EAST: If the Phillies continue to play at a .584 pace, they’ll go 22-15 in their last 37 games and finish 95-67. The Braves would have to go 28-7 (.800) just to tie.
♦ EAST: If the Phillies play at just above a .500 clip, 19-18, the rest of the way, they’ll finish 92-70. The Braves would have to go 25-10 (.714) to catch them.
(For the record, Philadelphia was 39-37 on July 2. It’s 34-15 since. The Phillies have been playing at a .694 clip for nearly two months.)
♦ WILD CARD: If the Rockies continue to play at a .563 pace, they’ll go 19-15 in their final 34 games and finish 91-71. The Braves would have to go 24-11(.686) to tie them.
♦ WILD CARD: If the Rockies play at a .500 clip, 17-17, the rest of the way, they’ll finish 89-73. The Braves would have to go 22-13 (.629) to catch them.
(For the record, Colorado started the season 18-28 but is 54-28 since firing manager Clint Hurdle May 28 and replacing him with Jim Tracy. The Rockies have been playing at a .659 clip for three months.)
♦ BRAVES RECAP: They were 39-43 on July 6. They are 28-17 since. That’s a .622 clip, which is less than .800, .714, .686 or .629.
OK, I’m done. Hopefully I didn’t ruin your breakfast.
What do the numbers tell you?
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168 comments Add your comment
Smack
August 28th, 2009
11:29 am
Turd, Tracy a good manager? Really? How did LA and Pittsburgh pan out again? LA Dodgers have a winner as a manager. SF has a winner for a manager. ATL., has a winner of a manager. Colorado does not. They have a beat up “overacheiving” pitching staff. LA just proved that. Until they get Buck Commander Cook back, the Dodgers and the Giants will continue to poke holes in that pitching balloon till it pops. We have the best staff of the top 4 teams in the wild card hands down. Now, like I said earlier, and as it has been all year, the offense has to do its part.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
11:30 am
Ron Mexico — hey, you looked pretty good last night.
David
August 28th, 2009
11:33 am
The Braves should have one of the easier September schedules. They have 35 games left.
Phillies (6), assume they go 4-2
Cardinals (3), assume they go 2-1
Marlins (7), assume they go 4-3
Astros (3), assume they go 2-1
Reds (3), assume they go 2-1
Mets (6), assume they go 4-2
Nationals (7), assume they go 5-2
That’s 23-12 and get’s them to 90 wins and might get them the wildcard if the Rockies and Giants cool off. One thing is certain. They need to win every series, or have a few sweeps if they don’t. And they can’t lay another egg like they did against the Pad’s. It’s not impossible, especially if Chipper and Escobar heat up again.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
11:36 am
David — so you’re assuming the Braves go 6-3 against the Phillies and Cardinals, or 10-6 against those two teams and the Marlins? Let’s see how that plays out and then get back to me.
Bat Masterson
August 28th, 2009
11:36 am
Thanks Jeff, and no I did not spit. I don’t move my lips, whether typing or reading, unreasonably proud of that.
Gene
August 28th, 2009
11:37 am
If the Braves can’t whip San Diego at home, they don’t belong in post season. However, they may slip into the wildcard where they will be quickly trounced. Tonight I will be watching the Cards and Smoltzie.
MVick
August 28th, 2009
11:37 am
I think Jeff is scared of Curtis Jones.
Gene
August 28th, 2009
11:41 am
If they can’t whip SD at home, the Braves don’t belong in the post season. They may squeak into the wildcard where they will be quickly trounced. I am watching Smoltzie and the Cards tonight, anyway.
Yogi Bear
August 28th, 2009
11:43 am
Any team that can’t beat the Padres in late August, is not going to make the playoffs.
fieldofdreams
August 28th, 2009
11:43 am
If Chipper hits the Braves can win the Wild Card, without him, they’ll miss. The future HOF’er with the self-described, impressive “body of work” is making a lot of dough, now’s the time to earn it.
Mitchell
August 28th, 2009
11:46 am
The numbers tell me that Greg Norton and Kelly Johnson shouldn’t be on this team. They tell me that Bobby stuck with Jordan Schafer two months too many and that Jeff Francoeur couldn’t have been traded soon enough.
They tell me that we have a manager who doesn’t seem to appreciate the severity of the situation. If we were to really have a chance we’d drop kick Norton, Kelly, Manny, Gorecki and O’Flaherty and bring back Conrad, Brandon Jones to give us the additional power and speed we lack and get somebody from Gwinnett who knows how to throw a f***ing strike and who doesn’t blow up at the umpire for missing a strike call or says that the team let up after he gives up four runs.
The numbers show that we are a capable team that lacks the leadership to make it a great team.
Blackberry Cobbler
August 28th, 2009
11:47 am
Since the All-Star break, the Braves have played well. But STILL, everytime they get in position to make a serious move they falter everytime. This Padres series was just the latest example.
Dove season openings Sept 5
The Dawgs start Sept 5
Deer bow season opens Sept 12
I don’t much care what the Braves do from this point on. Frankly, I’ve seen all of Booby Cox and Chipper Jones slump I can stand for one season.
61 year Braves Fan
August 28th, 2009
11:54 am
Great post by Curtis Jones today. Right on the money about Cox. He mismanaged the first half of
the season terribly.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
11:56 am
Mitchell, I don’t want to turn this blog into a Bobby Cox referendum (maybe next week). But do you really believe he doesn’t “appreciate the severity of the situation”?
Aunt Esther
August 28th, 2009
11:56 am
Enter your comments here
Aunt Esther
August 28th, 2009
11:58 am
I do not think it is as bad as it seems–if the Braves take care of business. They didn’t this week and they’re 4.5 out when they could have been 2.5 out.
The wild card is there for the taking, they just have to take care of business.
Dave
August 28th, 2009
12:03 pm
I will not argue that the Braves need to play .650 ball or better to catch the Rockies.
What bothers me is that most of the posters seem to think this is an impossibility.
With the excellent pitching the Braves have, I believe that .800 ball is possible, though not likely.
I hope they do make a run! It will make for an interesting September.
ynot
August 28th, 2009
12:10 pm
that’s why they play the games. Jeff, how soon do you flip to the last page of a book to see how it ends. You seem like an almost to the end guy, but you just can’t help yourself. Giants better do some sweeping this weekend; for the Braves sake.
TomB
August 28th, 2009
12:11 pm
Jeff – In 1991, the Braves won eight out of their final ten games, including eight consecutive wins during that stretch, to win the NL West championship.Amazing, but true. Its funny, but some teams do get hot while others simultaneously slump. How a team plays with a seven game advantage can change in a hurry if the lead becomes only three.
Mitchell
August 28th, 2009
12:23 pm
Uh, kind of.
It’s not like I’m here with “No More Bobby” as my screen name. I don’t call him “Booby” or any other assortment of insulting names or talk about his domestic life like some people have been known to do.
I’m saying that when he says things like “you’re not out of it until you’re 12 or 13 back” or when he compares Derek Lowe’s meltdown in New York to a “Greg Maddux inning”, he comes across as someone who isn’t being realistic. Rational might even be a better word for it.
I’m saying it’s not about the numbers. As ciritical as I and we are all allowed to be, I still think it’s possible for the Braves to win the wild card but not as long as Bobby sticks with guys like Norton and Kelly and Manny and Gorecki and O’Flaherty who clearly are not helping us win games.
Hey, forget what I think. Look at the numbers.
Oh! Zinger.
Mitchell
August 28th, 2009
12:26 pm
Jeff I would glad to follow up on your question but your blog just ate my post.
WTF man? Uh, I mean, what’s that all about, sir?
Mitchell
August 28th, 2009
12:29 pm
There goes another one.
What did I do to deserve this? I just want to be heard man.
Mitchell
August 28th, 2009
12:30 pm
Nevermind.
Bobby's Retirement Train Wreck
August 28th, 2009
1:02 pm
Jeff, member Curtis Jones raises some fine points… why do you not reply to these observant comments on Bobby Cox? His use of Norton? Etc.
As someone who’s been a devout Braves fan for a long time, I’m confused as to why Cox’s decisions to leave a pitcher like Kawakami in on Saturday (or any day) past the fifth inning when MLB scouts have observed the aged rookie has problems with velocity after 60 pitches? We would have been better off with Medlen. Why is that Cox always leaves in pitchers when they consistently miss the zone (think Soriano/Gonzo during the horrendous home run derby in the July series against the Marlins)? Why stick to the 7-8-9 plan of rotation>Gonzo>Soriano if Gonzo is pitching fine in the 8th?
Cox is still playing the same formula he always has… This formula worked in 1 of 14 playoff runs, and has done nothing in terms of postseason these past 4 years.
Cox, as Curtis Jones implies with his 10-point list, has simply lost the proactive, mental agility required to be a MLB manager, and certainly required for this budget-eating contract.
Geo
August 28th, 2009
1:16 pm
Lets get it started and win the next 7 games straight
Born2Buzz
August 28th, 2009
1:18 pm
Well we keep thinking the Bravos are dead and they keep hanging on by a fingernail. But this will be the penultimate week. The next 7 games are really, really, really it. If the Braves are still 4-1/2 back or worse after these 7 games then it’s truly over. But until then let’s not wash our hands of the season.
All that being said, if Bobby sends Norton up with the winning run in scoring position and he fails one more time I just might kick my TV in. Bobby just figures the guy has got to get a hit sometime, right?
Hercule Poirot
August 28th, 2009
1:20 pm
Kenshin Kawakami must really be a lively presence in the clubhouse, because Mark Bradley defends him like he’s not the weakest link in the rotation. Yes, he’s had some good starts, but he’s had a bunch of short, cruddy ones, too. Yet, a first baseman who was hitting 40 points higher with the same number of RBIs as the guy he was traded for was an “All-American out,” according to Bradley.
Players are mostly their results, not their personalities. Speaking of which, some people who’ve met him say Bradley can be quite the pill, too.
Mark Biles
August 28th, 2009
1:23 pm
I know the math is against us and we probably won’t win the NL East or the wild card, but 2009 sure has been a lot easier to take than 2006 through 2008 were. I believe 2010 should be our year if we can get some corner outfielders with some pop, sign LaRoche, get another quality reliever and keep our rotation in tact.
Sonny Clumps
August 28th, 2009
1:38 pm
When we was younger we use to say that when pitchers struggle like the way Kawakami does that meant they was best suited for the bull pen. When they was put in bull pens after having bad starts they was able to usually turn around.
Sonny Clumps
August 28th, 2009
1:41 pm
When we was younger and we had pitchers pitch the way Kawakami was this season we would suggest putting them in the bullpen, Jeff. When they was getting the bullpen innings they was usually able to pull together. Maybe we should give Kawakami a Dairy Queen burger and we Clumps’ was always great pitchers so we could teach him how to pitch like a real baseball player.
Train Wreck Bystander
August 28th, 2009
1:51 pm
So the Braves at the bare minimum need to win 2 of every three and hope the Rockies stumble…
It could happen. Might not, but it might.
You have to admit this is better than seasons of the recent past, though.
Braves Fan in N.Y.
August 28th, 2009
1:57 pm
You know what’s the toughest thing about being a Braves fan here in Upstate New York? It’s trying to explain those pathetic crowds at Turner Field in the heat of a pennant/wild card race. Hey, it’s almost Labor Day. We’re still in the hunt. The future looks bright. Why so ornery?
dcp
August 28th, 2009
1:59 pm
Jeff
Good call on not responding to the Phillies losing the next 7 games and the Braves winning the next 7 in a row. There is no shot of that – that would mean 2 losses for Cliff Lee in there, not to mention every other starter the Phillies have, given their starting rotation has been very solid – the last 40 games the starters have gone 7+ innings 19 times. This Phillies team is better tha last years’ save for their closer. The Braves had another good chance to gain ground and lost 2 of 3 to an awful team at home. They are past the point of taking series – they need sweeps and I don’t see it. Everyone is raving about their last 40 games or how they have had a great run – the two teams they have not been better than and need to catch will suddenly stop winning and the Braves will keep it up. It’s just not likely.
Reid Adair
August 28th, 2009
2:02 pm
The numbers merely show the grim reality of what the Braves have been battling all season … an offense that is, at best, inconsistent.
JR
August 28th, 2009
2:05 pm
If we can send Hank Aaron, Dale Murphey, Phil Neikro, Greg Maddox, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Andruw Jones out to pasture in the twilight of their careers, surely we can send Chipper Jones along. He could have a couple of good years left as a dh in the American if he didn’t have to drag his worn-out body out to third base every day.
dcp
August 28th, 2009
2:08 pm
AMEN Reid. To have the pitching they have had and still be trailing is discouraging. But I cannot tolerate any more whining about “well if Hanson started the year it would have been different, or if we had a better series against the Nats early, or if Soriano did not blow that save in LA, we would be much closer”. Every team can say that – i am sure the Phillies would say if Lidge did not blow 9 saves they would be 12 games up right now, I’m sure the Rockies would say they would be miles ahead of where they are “if” they had a good start in April and May” You are what you are at this stage, and the Braves are trailing based on their enture body of work just like everyone else.
Braves Fan in N.Y.
August 28th, 2009
2:08 pm
Thanks, Blackberry Cobbler.
Now I know why attendance sucks at Turner Field. Y’all are getting mentally prepared for dove season and deer bow season.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
2:17 pm
For the record, let me re-state what I’ve said before: Pending off-season moves, I feel really good about this team next season. You factor in the current roster, plus the possibility that Jordan Schafer won’t be a train wreck, plus a full season with McLouth, they could be pretty good. Other issues are fixable — not nearly as big as the ones before this season.
varoadrunner
August 28th, 2009
2:20 pm
David
The Braves should have one of the easier September schedules. They have 35 games left.
Phillies (6), assume they go 6-0
Cardinals (3), assume they go 3-0
Marlins (7), assume they go 7-0
Astros (3), assume they go 3-0
Reds (3), assume they go 3-0
Mets (6), assume they go 6-0
Nationals (7), assume they go 6-0
I agree , so let’s ASSUME they win it all
dcp
August 28th, 2009
2:26 pm
Jeff’s point is valid – the team is headed in the right direction. Everyone should be realistic – for years it was the Phillies that always “felt” they were as good as the Braves and in the end the Braves were better and won the division – right now the Phillies are just plain better – everyone needs to live with that for the time being and hope the Braves avoid injuries and keep plugging the holes they have.
Elon Brave
August 28th, 2009
2:28 pm
Shultz, you’re a good writer and a straight shooter. For that, I respect you. I also understand you’re just reporting the numbers, etc., but you can be a heck of a buzz kill sometimes when I just don’t think it’s necessary.
Why not report the numbers by saying something like “well, it’ll be tough, but if the Braves can win X% of their next X games while Colorado goes X% over there next X games the Braves may still be in this.” That would be just as true as the “glass half empty version”.
What’s with all the doom and gloom? Attendance has been horrible lately even though before the Padres series we were playing good baseball. Is your tone really necessary? It’s a GOOD thing if people are excited about the chances (albeit slim ones) of the Braves playing in October for the first time in four years. The excitement fills the seats, invigorates the team, and increases your page views (you talk about them a lot).
Like I said, you’re a good writer and I always make it a point to read your stuff but I, like most other people who read the blogs daily have an emotional investment in this team. When every peice you write (recently) is negative despite this team having a bigger upside and being more exciting than any in recent memory… well, it’s going to rile people up because it feels like you’re trying to pick a fight.
And maybe that’s your niche; I don’t know. But if it is, why? These blogs gives both sides (us and you) a unique opportunity to have a two sided conversation – that is a really neat idea. Knowing that this will be two sided conversation then, why not try to build a positive report?
If I misread (the peice or the implications) I apologize. Cheers.
Joe Fan
August 28th, 2009
2:35 pm
There is still no announcement from the Braves that Cox’s contract has been extended for 2010. So there is hope they will encourage him to move upstairs and if that doesn’t work, tell him its not his decision anymore and its either that or the farm. Then possibly the Braves will have a manager who recognizes just how improtant it is to win games in April as it is to win in September.
Joshhh...
August 28th, 2009
2:39 pm
I think the numbers tell me you’re an idiot…
Stop saying “clip” & just keep watching…
varoadrunner
August 28th, 2009
2:49 pm
I do not believe the Braves will REMOVE Cox. He will have to retire or move upstairs although he’s already been a Braves GM.
I do wish he would hand over the team to someone else.
Ralph
August 28th, 2009
3:03 pm
I take particular notice of the one stat showing the record of the Rockies before and after firing of Hurdle and hiring Tracy, just imagine what would have happened if the Braves had fired Cox at the same time.
Frontman
August 28th, 2009
3:16 pm
And why, pray tell, is Tim Hudson starting in place of Kawikami? In case you haven’t noticed, BC, Derek Lowe is your #5 right now…
David
August 28th, 2009
3:36 pm
Jeff, yes I did assume the Braves go 10-6 against the Phils, Cards and Marlins. They have to play well against these teams if they expect to make the playoffs. I wasn’t saying they would do it, just that it wouldn’t necessarily take a 21-game win streak like the Rockies had in ‘07 to get into the postseason. But they have to play well and win almost every series. If they don’t, they better sweep the Reds, Mets and Nats to stand a chance.
curtis jones
August 28th, 2009
3:39 pm
Hey London Calling: I may not be a baseball expert like you, but this is what I know. No post-season for the Braves. Again. If you like that, you must love Bobby Cox.
David
August 28th, 2009
3:43 pm
Bottom line, I don’t share your grim outlook.
D.W.
August 28th, 2009
3:47 pm
This season is toast. It was toast when the season began with Bobby Cox as manager. No one seems to get it, but that bad start and inconsistency throughout = Bobby Cox. Hopefully we won’t start next season with the same problem (Bobby Cox).