Braves fans, here’s the numbers (cover your eyes)
The Braves celebrated a win Thursday. But they'll need quite a few more.
I know sometimes baseball fans get angry when us nattering nabobs of negativism (copyright: tax cheat and lousy official scorer Spiro Agnew) suggest that their team might be hopelessly out of the race.
So I won’t do that this morning. Yes, the Braves just lost two out of three games at home to the San Diego Padres, a last-place team, at a time when they really needed to sweep somebody at home, especially a last-place team. But keep hope alive, right? Uh, where was I?
So here goes. You will get no negative verbiage from me. You get only numbers. I figure in this case, numbers tell the story.
First, here’s how it looks in the N.L. East:
Team W L Pct. GB
Philadelphia 73 52 .584 –
Atlanta 67 60 .528 7
Florida 67 60 .528 7
And here’s how it looks in the N.L. wild card picture
Team W L Pct. GB
Colorado 72 56 .563 –
San Francisco 69 59 .539 3
Atlanta 67 60 .528 4.5
Florida 67 60 .528 4.5
And here are all the bottom lines:
♦ EAST: If the Phillies continue to play at a .584 pace, they’ll go 22-15 in their last 37 games and finish 95-67. The Braves would have to go 28-7 (.800) just to tie.
♦ EAST: If the Phillies play at just above a .500 clip, 19-18, the rest of the way, they’ll finish 92-70. The Braves would have to go 25-10 (.714) to catch them.
(For the record, Philadelphia was 39-37 on July 2. It’s 34-15 since. The Phillies have been playing at a .694 clip for nearly two months.)
♦ WILD CARD: If the Rockies continue to play at a .563 pace, they’ll go 19-15 in their final 34 games and finish 91-71. The Braves would have to go 24-11(.686) to tie them.
♦ WILD CARD: If the Rockies play at a .500 clip, 17-17, the rest of the way, they’ll finish 89-73. The Braves would have to go 22-13 (.629) to catch them.
(For the record, Colorado started the season 18-28 but is 54-28 since firing manager Clint Hurdle May 28 and replacing him with Jim Tracy. The Rockies have been playing at a .659 clip for three months.)
♦ BRAVES RECAP: They were 39-43 on July 6. They are 28-17 since. That’s a .622 clip, which is less than .800, .714, .686 or .629.
OK, I’m done. Hopefully I didn’t ruin your breakfast.
What do the numbers tell you?
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168 comments Add your comment
Angus
August 28th, 2009
9:19 am
Pointless I know, in the tide of pessimism, but…..
Compare this season to last and you’ll feel better.
Consider that we’ve still got a chance (small, I know) despite:
-we don’t have a lead-off hitter
-we don’t have a clean-up hitter
-of our 4 OF’s, none can both hit and field
-Chipper, our go-to guy, has been struggling mightily (glimmer of hope last night?)
-we’re facing the dubious possibility of not having one 20 HR or 100 RBI guy.
And how about you be thankful the Braves made the moves they did? Many o’ teams we’re right where we were at the AS break – of those, no one else has done better since.
Cheer up Braves’ fans, we’re still in it and the future’s bright.
Don
August 28th, 2009
9:21 am
With out Pitching, the Braves should be leading the Division if they had a good manager. He has made and makes so many blunders that you could not even begin to list them. Not only is this season over – But the Braves fans can have no interest in the off seaseon in terms of trades/acquisitions/bringing up players – because nothin makes any difference with Cox probably continuing to be the manager. In fact, none of the talent the Braves have in the minors has any meaning if Cox continues to manage for several more years. The Braves acauired/devloped a very good Pitching Staff for this season – and what did it gain us — all efforts and acquisitions were just wasted – like flushing it down the toliet with Cox managing.
ann lewis
August 28th, 2009
9:29 am
they have losing owners, losing manager losing players time for change
Bat Masterson
August 28th, 2009
9:32 am
Jeff while I think Agnew deserves credit for being able to read those words with a straight face ,the author, that peerless paragon of perfidy, Pat Buchanan, should be recognized. Props to Pat.
Jan Spiro
August 28th, 2009
9:34 am
Jeff: that was Bill Safire who wrote that for Spiro Agnew. I believe that makes you an ” hyper, hysterical, hyprocrontiac of history”.
Smack
August 28th, 2009
9:36 am
The only issue I have is you didn’t keep digging further into the numbers to tell what if the Braves did when 90 and the Rockies and Marlins had the rug pulled out from under them. What if they had terrible Septembers and finished well below .500 for the month? I still think in the end it will be between the pitching rich teams of SF and ATL. It’s a time proven metric in these situtions, good pitching beats good hitting most of the time. With SF being able to throw Cain-Lincecum and maybe Bumgarner after roster expands, they can easily hadle full series at a time. We can go into series throwing JJ, Hanson, and Vazquez and easily be in every game. It boils down to this, can we hit? CJ has to step up, where he goes we go. McLouth needs to come back and be the best he’s been. All we need is consitent hitting. Here’s hoping it happens.
Bat Masterson
August 28th, 2009
9:44 am
While I’m all for free speech, it would seem Jay Root’s comment would be more fitting on a Timothy McVeigh fan site.
cwb
August 28th, 2009
9:45 am
My Western Civ. professor referred to him as Zero Agnew
Sonny Clusters
August 28th, 2009
9:48 am
We didn’t have no nabobs at Parkview. We was always positive and we was state championship. We didn’t have thumb problems either because we kept our thumbs healthy.
birddawgbill
August 28th, 2009
9:49 am
Hey lets not forget this is baseball. And I think the fact that the Rockies have played so far over their heads for so long is to the Braves advantage.
Required Reading | Hard Knox Sports
August 28th, 2009
9:51 am
[...] Bad news for Braves fans. [AJC] [...]
birddawgbill
August 28th, 2009
9:52 am
Any word on if Heyward is coming up in Sept.?
turd mcdoogan
August 28th, 2009
9:54 am
I think Smack is a moron. It’s gonna come down to Atlanta and Colorado for the wild card. SF aint got a chance.
Bat Masterson
August 28th, 2009
9:58 am
Whoops, I apologize , Mr. Safire it is, props to Bill.
RC35
August 28th, 2009
10:12 am
It’s a well-written column and a sobering reality check. Someone above (I don’t plan to go back and re-read every one) touched on a real sore spot for me. Several Braves players, coaches, and announcers over the past few years have talked about “meaningful games” in August and September. The last time I looked, they count April through July in the final standings as well. I know it’s good to end the season on a strong note going into the playoffs, but if the team would have won one more “ordinary game” every other week during the first four months of the season, think where we would be now…that’s in or tied for first place, by the way!
VaBravesfan
August 28th, 2009
10:13 am
birddawgbill: I read somewhere the Braves are shutting Heyward down for the year.
Justafan
August 28th, 2009
10:19 am
The Fat Lady is singing…Some people just need a hearing aid. Right Jeff?
Justafan
August 28th, 2009
10:23 am
Enter your comments here
midnite
August 28th, 2009
10:26 am
To use optimistic words of the esteemed Ace Ventura “so you’re telling me there’s a chance”
collegeballfan
August 28th, 2009
10:27 am
Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright,
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
And somewhere men are laughing, and little children shout;
But there is no joy in Mudville — mighty Casey has struck out.
TN Jeff
August 28th, 2009
10:29 am
Hmmmmmm……..when all the fans & the Hall of Fame Manager were pooh poohing the importance of games early in the season – sure wish we’d have won a BUNCH of those winnable games. Instead, we have a manager that is still trying to find his good-luck spot to watch games.
carolina fan
August 28th, 2009
10:31 am
Curtis Jones post at 8:38 gets a big thumgs up from me too. May I add recent BC blunders were the Norton PH the other night when the score was still 6-4 with two on base. The best is the dugout stare into space with Lowe getting hammered for how many runs?? So many good vents the next day about the ‘light being on and no one home’.
carolina fan
August 28th, 2009
10:31 am
Make that ‘thumbs up’
helmet head
August 28th, 2009
10:36 am
Greg Norton is Tommy Gregg
Ron E.
August 28th, 2009
10:36 am
We get it already. It’ll be tough for the Braves to make the playoffs. But the Rockies and Phillies still have to play their games and win them. Ask the 2007 Mets how hard it is to lose a large lead in September.
BeachBrave
August 28th, 2009
10:39 am
Jeff,
Any insight to the Acosta/Carlyle move beyond a bad Padres outing?
JeffHanson
August 28th, 2009
10:39 am
I dont care what the numbers say. If the Phils were to go out right now and lose seven straight games, while simulatansously the Braves were winning seven straight games; regardless of your formulas and numbers, THE BRAVES WOULD BE IN A VIRTUAL TIE WITH THE PHILLIES A WEEK FROM NOW. Period. End of Story. Ive seen it happen in baseball before and it may happen again this year with the Braves. Dont count the Braves out until they are mathematically out. Period. End of Story.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
10:43 am
Chris – Thanks. I knew middle school math would come in handy one day.
Tami – you define true fandom. I have absolutely no problem with that.
Tami – I’m not going to argue for or against Chipper being moved down. But I’ll just say that when something like that is done, it’s a huge story because Chipper has been so good for so long and is coming off a career season – and when he’s on, he’s still this team’s best player. So that’s not something that’s done easily.
Oldmike – Bobby goes when Bobby wants to go.
Bat: “peerless paragon of perfidy..” Did you spit on somebody when you said that? (pretty funny btw)
Jan Spiro: “hyper, hysterical, hyprocrontiac of history”. … My head hurts. (and Safire and I don’t hang)
Smack – I just gave you the numbers. If they can pull this off, more power to them.
BBrown
August 28th, 2009
10:45 am
Time for the rally hats. Think “METS TYPE COLLAPSE”!! It can (and did happen). Only, now we need it to happen to Colorado or LA.
NY Frenchy
August 28th, 2009
10:48 am
The Fat Lady already sang Wed. nite around 11:00 after the Pitiful Padres smoked us, this year is DONE. Why ask Why, 1. is Norton still on the roster? 2. Is Acosta still throwing BP to the other team? 3. Has Garret woke up yet? The guy has 0 passion for the game, just playing out until retirement. Do not bring him back next year, he couldnt throw anyone out @ 3rd from left field much less @ home, what a joke. Still HAVE TO add a big righty bat to the outfield or next year will be wasted again! Left field & Chipper are problem spots that have to be fixed for next year, the rest of the team is good enough & NO DO NOT trade Vazquez, hes our real #1 pitcher
Toby Hill
August 28th, 2009
10:48 am
If the Braves play 500% ball the remainder of the year they will win 84-85 games. Quiet an improvement over 2008.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
10:49 am
Bat – Now you’ve done it. It’s going to be Left-Right bashing for the next 20 comments. On second thought, thanks for the page views.
Birddawg Bill – Ironhead? (seriously, not sure)
Justafan – you said that. Hear that everybody! I didn’t say that. That was Justafan! Not me!
Helmethead – somewhere, Tommy Gregg is very angry.
JeffHanson, “I dont care what the numbers say. If the Phils were to go out right now and lose seven straight games, while simulatansously the Braves were winning seven straight games…” … I’m not even sure how to respond to that.
Sonny Clumps
August 28th, 2009
10:50 am
Jeff, when the Braves was down back in 1991 and 10 games out and they was known as a miracle team, do you think they would do that again?
reason
August 28th, 2009
10:51 am
Long shot but can the Rockies over take LA and the Braves move past LA, a slumping team and SF?
coach smith
August 28th, 2009
10:55 am
You can’t look at numbers like that and say “if so and so wins this, then so and so has to win this to catch them” WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES to use such long range what if’s with numbers
How about this…the Braves are 4.5 out of the WC and 7 out of the EAST
What happens if they win they NEXT 2 games and the ROCKIES and (obviously) the Phillies lose those next 2?
Then the Braves are 2.5 out of the WC and 5 out of the East and suddenly your whole perspective can change THAT FAST
Michael
August 28th, 2009
10:58 am
It’s about to the point where the Braves need to win the next 7, and then see where that puts them. Obviously that means sweeping the Phils & Marlins, an admittedly very tall order. And they better hope the Giants win at least 2 of 3 from the Rockies, because the Rockies schedule starts getting easy after this weekend (of their 31 remaining games after this weekend, only 9 are against teams with winning records).
The final nail isn’t in the coffin yet, but the undertaker has the hammer in hand.
Smack
August 28th, 2009
10:59 am
turd mcdoogan, in response to you, your name says it all. Jeff, I was just saying that once again there is another side of the coin that you fail to look at. You went with the law of averages and as a smart person has told me in discussing this post off-blog, you fail to put into account any outliers. What if the Rockies wake up and realize they are overachievers? A long losing streak here and few blown series there the winning percentages for a given small time period gets completly scewed. Just becasue you have done great for 8 weeks does not mean you will the next 4. The important thing to realize o great mathmatician, it’s not over till you lose your “magic” number.
Paul In Richmond
August 28th, 2009
11:01 am
Watch the Braves sweep the Phils this weekend. Just to torture us for another week of faint hopes…
rob
August 28th, 2009
11:02 am
I agree that the Rockies and Phils are just too far in front to make it this year, but the Braves are going to be a winning team this year playing relevant baseball in September. That’s a marked improvement from the past three years. I fully expect next year’s squad to challenge the Phils or win the wild card. The future is bright for this team.
Michael
August 28th, 2009
11:05 am
Oh, and 13 of the Braves next 16 games are on the road, and 10 of those are against Philly, Florida, & St. Louis. To say that it’s now or never is an understatement.
Joseph
August 28th, 2009
11:07 am
Braves are out for 2010 barrring a last min collapse by Colorado. They do however need to get 2nd in the east and 2nd in the wild card to have some serious momentum going into 2010. If they slack off the rest of the year knowing that they cannot really catch the the Phils or the Rock-heads, that will not bode well for the beginning of 2010. we need MOMENTUM regardless of whether we can catch up or not.
Herschel Talker
August 28th, 2009
11:11 am
Schultzie – great response to JeffHanson. What a fool.
turd mcdoogan
August 28th, 2009
11:13 am
Smack- The Rockies arn’t gonna “wake up and realize they are overacheivers”. Jim Tracy is too good of a manager to let that happen. you so stupid.
Angus
August 28th, 2009
11:19 am
Tim Kirkjian gives us a reason for optimism:
“The Giants also have their starting pitching in perfect order for this series. They have arguably the best pitcher in the National League in Tim Lincecum going on Friday night; maybe their hottest pitcher, Barry Zito, goes against Jason Marquis on Saturday; and Matt Cain faces Jason Hammel in Sunday’s series finale. It’s a perfect setup of righty-lefty-righty for San Francisco.”
We have decided advantages vs. the Phil’s tonight and Sunday – hope for a miracle tomorrow (Lowe vs. Lee). And, beyond the unknown of Hudson vs. Johnson Monday, we’ve got the better of all the pitching match-ups vs. the Fish.
Original Jon
August 28th, 2009
11:19 am
I will tell you what I see Mr Schultz. I see alot of IFs. IF this team does that or IF this team does this. Baseball is baseball and anything could happen on the drop of a dime. Why dont you run these numbers, what would the Phillies or Rockies project at if they would have kept at their first half pace?
Catfish
August 28th, 2009
11:20 am
They pay you to come up with these topics?
submariner
August 28th, 2009
11:25 am
After this weekend, you all can focus on football, because these guys are done and they don’t want to win from the bullpen catcher all the way up to Bobby Cox.
London Calling
August 28th, 2009
11:27 am
All you really shown is that we are behind the leaders in the Division & Wild Card races. So? We’re not favourites, but we are far from out of it.
And then on come the Cox hating morons…
Conrad was a .344 hitter over about 30 at-bats! In his career is is a .250 singles hitter, and not great defensively. He is not the answer.
Prado had a groin injury for most of the season and couldn’t play every day. How often do you haters need to be told this before you grasp this simple fact?
Diaz started everyday last year in left and stunk. He’s better now, but he’s no everyday player.
Anyone who thinks Chipper should be dropped down the order is a MORON. He’s a sure-fire first ballot HOFer in a slump. Putting players in a situation where any slump or slip is going to be punished is guaranteed to stop them from performing.
McCann is being no more “overworked” than any other starting catcher.
Whenever one of the lesser used pitchers is used, and gives up a run, you guys go nuts (remember Medlen in the extra inning game the other day? Apparently Soriano should have gone two innings according to you dingbats).
Cox is criticised for pulling the starters too early and overworking the bullpen. He’s criticised for leaving the starters in too long until the give up the big inning. He’s criticised for using the same relief pitchers, and for using different ones, it goes on and on.
You think you’re special, don’t you. You have the real insight, greater than all those involved in the game who say Cox is great. Well, you don’t. You can go onto the blogs for any other team, and you’ll see the same garbage, the same nit-picking over minor decisions and minor players, the same relentless hatred, just different players & different managers. There are Torre-haters, Gonzales-haters, LaRussa-haters, Bochy-haters, Piniella-haters (OK, I’ll go for that one). They all have one thing in common – a complete misunderstanding of the game of baseball.
ron mexico
August 28th, 2009
11:27 am
Is making the playoffs do-able? Yes. So is winning the lottery.
Jeff Schultz
August 28th, 2009
11:29 am
Reason – Colorado passing LA was more plausible before the Dodgers won the last 2 games of that series … even so, chasing LA instead wouldn’t be good news for Braves because Dodgers have a better record than Rockies now, if you follow.
Coach Smith – all that’s true. But the numbers are the numbers. The teams must still play at those dictated paces the rest of the year for there to be a change.
Catfish – no, actually they just pay me to respond to you. The blogs I do for free.