This decides Braves’ playoff hopes! (at least this week)
The Braves don't have to this to Florida but this is their best chance to make a move.
I’ve decided not to make any more grand declarations on the Braves’ playoff chances. There have been too many bizarre developments in the past month or two to boldly state something absolute like: The Braves must sweep this series, or this home stand, or win 10 of the next 13, or they can just forget about working past Labor Day.
Loading ...But this is the best opportunity the Braves will have to make a move in the National League wild card race. And if they don’t do well in this next series, or this homestand, or in this stretch of games, they can just forget about working past Labor Day. (That didn’t last long.)
This is how the schedule lays out in the next two weeks: seven against Florida, three against Philadelphia, three against San Diego. The Braves open a series tonight against the Marlins, whom they’re tied with at third overall in the wild card standings. With 10 of the next 13 games coming against Florida and Philly, the Braves have the head to head meetings they need to give the playoff races some clarity.
Catching the Phillies in the East is a long shot. So let’s focus on the wild card for now. During this same stretch, Colorado, which sits in first in the wild card, opens a four-game series against second-place San Francisco tonight, then plays the West-leading Dodgers, then three more against the Giants.
This is good news if you’re the Braves because it means if you win, you’ve got a chance to gain and pass two of the three teams ahead of you in the National League. The difficulty of the wild-card race is you’re battling several other teams for one spot. The overall games-behind category is almost an afterthought until you make it to second place.
But because of this stretch of games, the Braves have an opportunity. They need to pass three teams in the N.L. But they play one of them (Florida) seven times in the next 13, and the other two teams in front (Rockies and Giants) are playing each other, meaning one has to lose.
Now, if all of this bores you, and it probably does because even my head hurts, let’s just ask a question: How many games will it take to win the wild card race? Florida infielder Wes Helms said Thursday, “I think 90-plus wins is what it takes.” (Wes, of you’re reading, you’re welcome to blog your comments just below.)
In a June blog, I noted that the National League wild card team over the last 10 years has averaged 92 wins. The Dodgers made it with 88 three years ago. Colorado currently is on pace for 91. If the Rockies win 91, that means the Braves would have to go 27-14 in the last 41 games to tie them.
My head hurts again. (By the way, there’s a poll to the left).
- Team W L GB Last 10 Next
- Colorado 68 53 – 7-3 4 vs. San Francisco
- San Francisco 66 55 2 5-5 4 at Colorado
- Atlanta 64 57 4 7-3 3 vs. Florida
- Florida 64 57 4 6-4 3 at Atlanta
- Chicago 61 58 6 3-7 4 at Los Angeles*
*Series started Thursday.
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86 comments Add your comment
k483
August 21st, 2009
7:29 am
Has anyone done the math as to if the Braves win their remaining series’, and all the other teams win at their current rate?
braveshoo
August 21st, 2009
7:35 am
One game at a time,guys. We are in this thing We just need to keep playing good baseball.
T-Bone
August 21st, 2009
7:38 am
Just win, baby!!
Bank Walker, Texas Ranger
August 21st, 2009
7:50 am
The Braves are done
Bill Heller
August 21st, 2009
7:58 am
We may end up in a race against the Dodgers for the wild card.
Jeff Schultz
August 21st, 2009
7:59 am
K483 — Funny you mention that. If you just go by the 2-out-3 (66.7 percent) formula, the Braves win 27 of their last 41 games, which, like I wrote, gives them 91 wins, which is what Colorado is pacing for.
Jeff Schultz
August 21st, 2009
8:01 am
Bill — I guess that’s possible but I don’t see the Dodgers blowing the West lead to the Rocks or Giants. Dodgers being in wild-card race wouldn’t be a good thing for the Braves.
Mike S
August 21st, 2009
8:08 am
Whether the Braves make it or not I am just happy to actually be talking about playoff possibilities in late August. The Braves have made some good moves this season, and have built a team instead of relying on one or two superstars to carry them.
They have a solid lineup top to bottom and a stellar pitching staff. That is the kind of stuff that wins in October.
Mike Jay
August 21st, 2009
8:09 am
Don’t the Dogders oly have a 3 1/2 game lead over
Denver though? Plus they are not playing too good at the moment. I could see Denver catching the measily. You are right that would not be good for the Bravos.
MightyQuinn
August 21st, 2009
8:09 am
I think the Braves have a great shot at this, but who knows? I mean if any team goes on a tear like Colorado did (what was it, like 22 out of 23 games won?) then its a moot issue. But what I like about these Braves is that they keep responding to an occasional crushing loss by winning four or five in a row. If they are at least in the discussion til the end of the season, then I’m pretty happy….for this year.
Toots
August 21st, 2009
8:14 am
Owie. My head hurts. Kiss the boo boo.
rhynster
August 21st, 2009
8:20 am
Everyone always assumes that teams ahead of you will keep winning at their current pace, and, thus, you’ll have to exceed that pace.
Not necessarily true.
We’ve seen so many teams stumble down the stretch. NY Mets, anyone?
Mac
August 21st, 2009
8:35 am
If they don’t make it, I won’t be disappointed, because they’ve already had a better season than I expected. Fun team to follow this year. Almost as much fun as ‘91.
slow roller
August 21st, 2009
8:35 am
Fire Terry Pendleton!!! Oops, never mind. I guess they are hitting okay.
Trade Chipper!!! He hasn’t done much lately. And, that throwing error last night cost us a run. He’s a bum who doesn’t play with any intensity any more.
Fire Bobby!!! Maybe not. He actually pulled Gonzalez last night and coached like it was a playoff game. KK probably could have gone another inning though. Soriano looked a little better, more relaxed and happy after getting the save. Wonder if he is feeling better.
Reid Adair
August 21st, 2009
8:38 am
I wish I could agree that the offensive lineup has the ability to be consistent enough for that kind of a streak, but I just don’t see it.
The pitching is there. The offense is not.
richbrave
August 21st, 2009
8:40 am
Not having offense early wasted some excellent pitching performances. Now we are in the unenviable position of having to take two of three from the FISH and PHILLIES, several times. As I said in June, I believe we come up three games short. And I think the MARLINS get in, not COLORADO.
Baby Ruth
August 21st, 2009
8:41 am
Sorry to break it to you, guys. This team is not finishing 20 games over .500. I predict 86-88 wins, and they finish 2-3 games out of the WC.
But it’ll be a lot of fun if I’m wrong.
richbrave
August 21st, 2009
8:43 am
rhynster:
Dude, I used to believe in fairy-tales too!!!!
sidslid
August 21st, 2009
8:48 am
Since most series are 3 gamers, seems like if we average winning all the three gamers and either sweep a couple two gamers and three out of four any four gamers we get around 94 wins. That should do it. Bobby Cox is basically saying that. We have to win every series.
Kawakami seems like the key. The Derrick Lowe you see is the Derrick Lowe you get. This has been his whole career. Remember, he was demoted to the bullpen before he became the darling of the 2004 playoffs. I thought he would go Goose Givens on us after that, but he had a good run with the Dodgers.
slow roller
August 21st, 2009
8:49 am
Oh yeah, one more thing. Lowe has a dead arm right now. Trade him!!!
Need to give Medlen a couple starts!!! Medlen has been terrific in long relief!!!
GermanBravesFan
August 21st, 2009
8:52 am
MIKE S: I totally agree with your statement. Isn’t it fun to know that the Braves are actually contending again?? Even if they won’t make it this season, the future sure looks bright! I am curious to see the next moves in the off-season: keep Vazquez or Hudson? Who will be the closer for next year since both Soriano and Gonzalez are free agents after this season? Which of the young players will make the team next season (Freeman, Heyward, etc.)? Will Medlen be a starter next year? With a rotation of Jurrjens/Hanson/Kawakami/Lowe/Vazquez or Hudson, it will be tough for him to make it. I am totally excited about the progress the Braves have made. And while I was upset at certain moves made (or, more importantly, not made) in the off-season, here is what happened to those other candidates we were looking at: Furcal – barely any stolen bases. Peavy – more on the DL than playing. Griffey Jr. – please…!. Adam Dunn… never mind. Did I forget someone?
And, yes, it could be argued that the contract given to Lowe was excessive. BUT: the Braves have two young starters (Jurrjens, Hanson) who barely make anything. So, overall, the cost of the rotation is not that bad!! I am looking forward to the series this weekend. And the remainder of the season. AND next season!! Now I wish they showed baseball on tv in Europe… GO BRAVES!!!
GermanBravesFan
August 21st, 2009
8:53 am
Slow roller: if Lowe has a dead arm right now, who would trade for him???
bibbs
August 21st, 2009
8:56 am
why is it a bad thing if the dodgers get involved in wild card race? arent CO, SF and LA going to beat each other up anyway?
Jeff Schultz
August 21st, 2009
8:59 am
MikeS – I hear ya. Count me among the shocked.
Mike Jay – Yeah, but I just think the Dodgers are easily the best team in the division and they’ll hold on.
Toots – Without pictures, sorry, gonna have to pass.
Slow roller – you’ve got blogging potential.
Reid – I think we’ve been down this road before. But I’m just gonna sit over here and let you drive the doubt train for a while.
Hooter Girl
August 21st, 2009
8:59 am
Who is Goose Givens?
Brian
August 21st, 2009
8:59 am
Good article by DOB on Matt Diaz, but you can’t comment on it. I’ll just say it here: Matt Diaz is one cool dude, and continues to hit, and hit some more. Since the Braves picked him up before the 2006 season, among players with over 1000 ABs in that span, Diaz’s .313 average ranks 14th in all of baseball. He’s in a perpetual state of hustle…baseball needs more Matt Diaz’s.
Jeff Schultz
August 21st, 2009
9:01 am
Bibbs — it’s bad because the Dodgers are 7 1/2 games better than the Braves today, so if they’re the team you’re chasing in the wild card, you’ve got a long way to go.
Don
August 21st, 2009
9:06 am
You keep forgetting that the Manager is still Bobby Cox and he continues to make blunder aftr blunder. — In addition to the contnuous failure to teach/emphasize/demand the working of the count – being selective – waiting for a good pitch to hit —- which has a devastating effect of having consistant run production and winning.
Bama Aaron
August 21st, 2009
9:06 am
I think if they win 2 out of 3 the rest of the way we have a reasonable shot of at least tying for the wild card. At this point I’d take a shot at a play in game.
But who knows we’ve got 6 left with Philly…that scenario would mean 4 more wins against them and you might be talking division instead of wild card. either way it’s nice to actually be talking about it again this year.
Don
August 21st, 2009
9:07 am
The Braves don’t need to “add” a bat; they need to “subtract” Bobby Cox.
Brian
August 21st, 2009
9:08 am
Baseball Prospectus (simulating the rest of the season a million times), has the wild card in the NL winning an average of 91.7 games. And that number is going up, as teams like the Rockies and Braves keep winning. With the Braves and Marlins, and Giants and Rockies going at it this weekend, we could see some relatively seismic shifting. Gotta take care of business against Florida. Winning 10 out of these next 13 would put us in great shape. Tall task, but at some point they’re going to have to get even hotter than they are now to get in the playoffs.
Brian
August 21st, 2009
9:09 am
Don, do have a list of blog comments saved somewhere that you just routinely copy and paste every morning?
Don
August 21st, 2009
9:10 am
When the need for a change in Managers is so obvious, which of the following is the reason this is not being done:
(1) Wren does not comprehend Bobby Cox’s incompetence.
(2) Wren’s hands are tied by his superiors.
(3) Cox is untouchable based on a previous agreement that he can stay as long as he wants.
bibbs
August 21st, 2009
9:12 am
understood, but if they get involved in WC it is because they have either played worse and have come back to the pack or CO or SF has caught them. Either way, we have to finish in front of 2 of the 3 NL west teams
MiltonDawg
August 21st, 2009
9:13 am
Need a sweep of the Marlins & Padres–hopefully the either the Phils, Rockies, & Giants can drop a few during that stretch. Great news on Prado’s health, any word he’ll be back in the lineup tonight?
midnite
August 21st, 2009
9:21 am
The Braves need to get Prado and McClouth well and back in the lineup. Let’s keep our fingers crossed on Anderson only missing a couple of games with his back. I know a lot of y’all don’t like him but he has been our most consistent hitter for two months now.
Maybe we can find a RH power bat cheap on the waiver wire in the next week and a half. Church has had a good series and the LaRoache trade has been a great addition.
GO BRAVES and GO FALCONS TONIGHT IN ST. LOUIS!!
lance
August 21st, 2009
9:26 am
it’s been six years. The Marlin have never lost a playoff series. I like math. Don’t bet against Flo Rida. That being said I’m cheering for the Braves.
Hillbilly Deluxe
August 21st, 2009
9:27 am
If you just go by the 2-out-3 (66.7 percent) formula, the Braves win 27 of their last 41 games, which, like I wrote, gives them 91 wins, which is what Colorado is pacing for.
You really think the Braves can play .667 baseball the rest of the way? Were I a wagering man, I’d bet against that. I see the Rockies overtaking the Dodgers and the Dodgers and the Fish duking it out for the wild card, which shouldn’t exist anyhow….if you can’t win your division you have no business being in the playoffs. Of course none of this would have happened if Bud Selig were alive.
Hooter Girl
August 21st, 2009
9:27 am
Would someone tell me who Goose Givens is?
washedup
August 21st, 2009
9:28 am
Good job on the radio yesterday, Jeff. . .enjoyed it. Braves may not make it to the playoffs, but I really enjoy this team. .I’ve watched more games this year than I have in a long time.
GermanBravesFan
August 21st, 2009
9:29 am
DON: exactly. Bobby Cox will decide when he wants to retire. So, why don’t you give it a rest? Without Bobby Cox, we would not have discussions of the Braves’ past failures in the play-offs because the Braves wouldn’t even haven been there! Joy and disappointment lie close together in sports. I enjoyed every division title the Braves won over the years and, yes, I suffered through tough post seasons. But I am grateful that Bobby Cox at least got us to the playoffs.
midnite
August 21st, 2009
9:32 am
I think the team chemistry is better now than it has been in years. Yunel and Anderson talking to others in the dugout, Pendleton teasing Gorecki after his first ML hit, and everybody loves having LaRoache back. Good chemistry is essential, I feel really good about our stretch run with this present team.
Crapper John
August 21st, 2009
9:37 am
I’ve forgotten what it feels like to be in the playoff hunt. Everytime they lose I feel like the season has gone down the tubes. Then after a couple of wins, those thoughts get flushed out of my head.
Herschel Talker
August 21st, 2009
9:38 am
Schultzie – you keep forgetting about your column from a few weeks back. Don’t discount the Braves having one bad week at some point, and knocking themselves out of it. They’ve been playing great, but in doing so, they’re making up little ground and they don’t get a chance to bump off Colorado themselves. That last game before the all star break, where they blew a huge lead, is going to come back and bite them in the butt.
Ben
August 21st, 2009
9:40 am
Are you people hearing what you’re saying? 2 of 3 for every series? 3 teams ahead of us falling apart down the stretch? 91-92 wins? Guys, you’re reaching. I hate to say it but it’s over. Once you realize this harsh reality, you’ll feel better. That said, I completely hope I’m wrong and we have a miracle in us but I’m not holding my breath.
yellerjacket
August 21st, 2009
9:41 am
The Braves lineup is very different now, than it was the first half. If we had had this lineup the whole year we’d be in first in one of the two standings that matter. The Phillies and Fish were bumbling along around .500 for much of the first half too, but no team could pull away. If we’d had our revamped lineup, we might have pulled away then.
Frank Wren has done an excellent job with the payroll he has had to work within. We are in excellent position to win the division or the wild card next year with a full season of this lineup out on the field. The only question marks are Hudson, LaRoche, and Soriano/Gonzalez. Sign three of the four or trade one closer and LaRoche for a younger, slugging 1B (Adrian Gonzalez or the like) and we can pick up where we will leave off at the end of this season.
A wild card battle this year, regardless the outcome, will get the fan base re-energized and poised for better attendance and support next year. Things are looking up, despite the seemingly complacent interest level of the ownership.
Schultzie, any idea on how the ownership group views the Braves right now? Are they not making money so they are reluctant to raise payroll until us lukewarm Atlantans put more butts in the seats or what? Hook a brother up.
Ben
August 21st, 2009
9:42 am
Herschel, exactly. They’ve been better than I gave them credit for and CERTAINLY better than they were at the beginning of the year but they’re still not gaining ground. They have no wiggle room at all and from what I’ve seen ALL YEAR from this team, they will be swept at some point in the next month and it will be over.
midnite
August 21st, 2009
9:44 am
Mr. Schultz you are a regular media mogul these days. AJC columnist and blogger, tweetin’ on Twitter, and sports talk radio host. What’s next Dancing with the Stars, or maybe a cameo appearance on Real Housewives of Atlanta?
Terry
August 21st, 2009
10:05 am
Braves are done. No way they catch the rockies. I bet they lose 2/3 against Fla at home and 3/4 on the road. Typcial braves. Chipper played like crap last night. Nice double play and error. Almost single handedly gave the game to the mets. this is why they aren’t a playoff team.
Mitch C
August 21st, 2009
10:06 am
Jeff, there have also been wild card teams that have made it with 86 to 89 wins. I was figuring the other night that if the Braves continue at their current pace, or pick it up by a game or two, they will finish with 89 or 90 wins, which might be enough.
The schedule the next couple of weeks doesnt seem terribly kind, except for the Padres. As you said, they have to play Florida seven times, plus they have to play Philly a three game series at Philadelphia.
Where the schedule does get kind is toward the end of the season. They have six more left with the Mets, and seven more left with Washington. If the Braves are tied for, or within a game of, the wild card, going into the last weekend, I like their chances with a four game series at home to finish the regular season against the Nats. The key is, the Braves have to somehow survive this next stretch over the next two weeks with Florida and Philly.
I think they have a shot. The team has played well lately, for the most part. I have a feeling we will be seeing some exciting baseball in Atlanta in September, which is something we havent seen since 2005.
Mitch