Braves are learning hard way about Lowe
Here's when Bobby Cox finally rescued Derek Lowe in the fourth. It was too late.
Derek Lowe is a really nice guy. He’s also a popular player in the clubhouse and his career numbers show he would be a solid addition to any team’s starting rotation.
Here’s what Derek Lowe isn’t: A No. 1 starter.
We suspected it before the season and he has confirmed it since. Last night, it hit home like a falling piano on Bobby Cox’s head. Given an early 4-0 lead to work with and facing the broken-down New York Mets in a game the Braves had to have, Lowe was pounded for eight earned runs and 11 hits in 3 2/3 innings. I can only assume Cox was hoping Lowe would channel Grover Alexander at some point in the Mets’ eight-run fourth inning, because that’s the only explanation for the manager leaving him in for as long as he did.
This implosion brings Lowe’s season earned run average to 4.45. That ranks 13th on the Braves’ staff and sixth among pitchers who’ve started at least three games — behind even Kenshin Kawakami (4.13) and Kris Medlen (4.20).
We’ve always known Lowe was not the Braves’ first choice to be their No. 1 starter this season. They danced with San Diego over Jake Peavy. They were stood up in free agency by A.J. Burnett. In the end, they gave Lowe a ridiculous four-year, $60 million contract.
Lesson learned: a fat salary doesn’t make somebody better.
As our David O’Brien pointed out, Lowe had been on a roll of late. He was a 5-0 record with a 2.91 ERA over his previous nine starts. But the body of work hasn’t been there. He leads the staff in wins, “quality” starts and is second in innings pitched (behind Javier Vazquez). But his ERA is the highest since his last two seasons in Boston in 2003 (4.47) and 2004 (5.42) and he’s nearly on pace for a career-low in strikeouts since becoming a starter in 2002.
He is what he is: a solid second or very good third starter. Chances are that’s what he’ll be next season (logical/duh conclusion: Tommy Hanson should be No. 1).
But he’ll still have the $60 million contract. Those deals don’t have front-office-management, reverse-incentives built in.
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233 comments Add your comment
George C
August 19th, 2009
10:30 am
These pretzels, ARE MAKING ME THIRSTY!!!!
George C
August 19th, 2009
10:31 am
I’m not treating you to lunch ANYMORE!!!
old fart
August 19th, 2009
10:33 am
Cox lost the game. Not Lowe.
Brian
August 19th, 2009
10:37 am
What is a #1 starter? For the standards most people have for a “#1 starter”, less than 10 team in MLB have one. Lowe would be the “#1 starter” for the Nationals and quite a few other teams. Is it a 20-game winner? Lowe won 20 games once, seven years ago.
Did the Braves overpay for Lowe this off-season? Maybe…it depends on how much less the Mets were willing to pay. The Braves needed him, and they really didn’t need for the Mets to have him. Fangraphs shows Lowe at being worth an average of 16.8 million per year his last three years with the Dodgers, and at 12.5 million so far this year. (That’s based on estimated wins above replacement (WAR)) Will he be worth 15 million a year his last three years of his deal? Not very likely. 10 million is more like it.
I guess the answer is if people thought Lowe was going to be some sort of dominant, top-of-the-NL guy, they were sadly mistaken. And I’m pretty certain no one in the Braves organization saw him that way either. But Lowe has been pretty good most of the year, and we wouldn’t be sniffing a playoff chase without him.
yall are crazy
August 19th, 2009
10:48 am
You cannot place the blame for last night’s embarrassment squarely on Lowe. Bobby Cox was too stubborn to take him out before it became ridiculous. Lowe should have been pulled once the score was tied.
Rex D
August 19th, 2009
10:51 am
Don’t you mean solid 4th starter??? Isn’t that what he is essentially now???? Why does it matter if he started the season as #1?? At this point, we’re relying on Vasquez, Jair, and Hanson . . . And I place Hanson third only because it’s not smart to rely too much on a guy who was in the minors two months ago . . . My point is that no one views Lowe as one of our top starters, but in the 4th slot he’s pretty solid . . . That’s where he is at this point . . . If we somehow made the playoffs in 2009, we’d pitch the other three, and possibly only use Lowe for the 4th game (or not at all).
ChillyMutt
August 19th, 2009
10:53 am
Sometimes you just don’t have it. Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz all had tough outings but Cox didn’t just out there to get abused. It was stupefying to see Cox just watch as Lowe – obviously bothered by the callous on his pitching hand and being hit with a sharp grounder on his non pitching hand – gave up run after run after run. Cox let that game slip away and then he eventually gave it away by not pulling Lowe. He has never managed pitching well but that was truly one of his most amazing moments. And where was Roger McDowell? If I were the pitching coach, you would have had to tackle me to keep me from going on the field to pull Lowe.
Be-little, BeBOLD
August 19th, 2009
10:53 am
Cox stated he left him in to get a ground ball—DUH . . . that’s what he was getting and runners were crossing the plate like crazy while “the greatest” Cox sat there resting his chin in the palm of his hand, asleep, I assume, after that comment!!!!
PMC
August 19th, 2009
10:53 am
Hey at least he’s pitching and most of the time he’s been pretty good. We could have been stuck with Hampton and his 30 minute longer flight to see his kids during which we would have to endure 6 season ending injuries he would endure while buckling his seatbelt. He’s not quite Bernie Madoff… but I dare say no one in baseball has stolen more money.
Bama Aaron
August 19th, 2009
10:54 am
Lowe is not a #1 starter, but last night was not all his fault. He should have been taken out much sooner last night. If I’m managing and he gives up 3 straight hits on balls left up in the zone after getting hit by a comebacker he’s probably coming out. He’s definitely coming out before he gives up the lead. Poor managing once again by Cox.
larocheisabeast
August 19th, 2009
10:57 am
very convenient time to write this article, schultz. typical…
matthl
August 19th, 2009
10:58 am
Gotta give Lowe benefit of the doubt here, he obviously had a blister on his right hand and got beaned with a liner on his left. He looked really good in the first three innings. Maybe he should have taken himself out and Bobby should have definitely taken him out earlier than he did. Although I do agree that he is not a number one and he got paid waaay too much money, the Braves would be worse off this year without him.
Dave
August 19th, 2009
11:00 am
I suspect that Bobby will pull a pitcher sooner for the balance of the season. Mets get a franchise record 10 hits in an inning.
I hope Francouer doesn’t turn out to be a Braves killer. He’s wearing those Parkview colors again! I’ve hated the Mets since 1969.
BravesFan79
August 19th, 2009
11:02 am
I just dont understand Cox’s thinking in that 4th inning. Did he NOT see Lowe getting treatment for a blister on his pitching hand before the inning?? Why then would he not have a shorter hook for him?? He should of known Lowe didnt have it anymore after it was 4-2. Thats the problem with Bobbys managnment even tho i love him, he just gives away 2 many games every season. Last night was a perfect example.
George C
August 19th, 2009
11:03 am
There was significant shrinkage.
mcgannfan
August 19th, 2009
11:04 am
Once again,Cox fails to ‘manage’; instead he mis-manages which he does all too often. Lowe was left in far too long nursing a hurting hand and then being hit on the left. When is someone going to wake up and HELP Cox retire? I wish they would get rid of him NOW…….get someone who would help us have an chance at the wildcard. Right now, we are toast…..burned.
I guess Schultz, O’Brien, Bradley and Rogers can never say the truth about Cox ….if they did they would probably be banned from clubhouse and ajc.
such a sad state of affairs…….our guys are working hard only to be outdone, once again, by a manager who just doesn’t get it
Greg McMichael
August 19th, 2009
11:05 am
Here’s what Derek Lowe isn’t: A No. 1 starter
In related news…
Sun will set in the west tonight.
Richard Nieh
August 19th, 2009
11:05 am
Come on guys. Lowe leads the rotation in wins. Yes, he was sometimes lucky or luckier than Javy or JJ but what he presents is the opportunities for the team he pitches to win. The fact is that Braves’ rotation has been vamped up so strong that he looks like a average pitchers at best but I really don’t mind putting him up against guys like Johan Santana, Roy Halladay and guys in the same league as them. Yes, Lowe’s stuff is definitely worse than an ace stuff but we all know that it takes more than stuff to win baseball.
Ace or not, every team needs a guy like him or Aaron Cook or Joe Blanton that give you innings and chances to win. You know what? Between the three guys I mentioned, I choose Lowe. I do agree he is overpaid but it is simply the trend of the market. I also think Johan Santana is over paid, so is CC Sabathia. It is one bad outing from Lowe and I trust him to throw a gem in the next start. Anyone wants to bet against me?
Braves73
August 19th, 2009
11:12 am
It’s games like last night that that the Braves cannot afford to give away, yet every year Bobby manages like we have a ten game division lead. It was clear that Lowe was not on his “A” game and probably needed to be pulled at 4-4 or even 5-4. Bobby was giving him the benefit of the doubt, the only problem with that rationale is that this team is not good enough to give away games.
atlbravesfan44
August 19th, 2009
11:14 am
I guess you are saying the Braves are overpaying him, but given what was left out there I think they did ok. I mean, where would they be without him? I don’t think Medlen, Jo Jo Reyes, or Morton would be any better right now. Granted they’d be a lot cheaper, but I’ll take the innings he eats and the tick below league average ERA over the situation we had last year.
carl
August 19th, 2009
11:15 am
Cox even outdid himself last night. This team isn’t going anywhere until that dunce hangs it up
TomB
August 19th, 2009
11:15 am
This loss you can blame on the manager.Lowe was terrible last night but as bad as he was, he didn’t lose the game.I can understand taking Lowe out after the Mets score four runs.But, why after eight runs? The Mets score four, alright we’re back to a 0-0 game and the Braves have a chance.I hate it when the manager costs us games down the stretch. I thought at the very least, Cox’s job was to keep us in ballgames, not give them away. Arghh!
Where are you Sonny Clusters?
rhynster
August 19th, 2009
11:16 am
Lowe was overhyped coming into the offseason.
That’s obvious now, but no one talks about why.
The truth is that picthing at Dodger Stadium is like hitting at Coors Field.
You have to artifically add anywhere from 0.50 to 1.00 to anyone’s ERA that pitches there regularly.
In that sense, Lowe is exactly as advertised.
cvbraves
August 19th, 2009
11:18 am
Bobby didn’t give up 8 runs, Lowe did! If Bobby had pulled Lowe with the score 4-2 or 4-4 and Medlen had come in and given up another 4, then everyone would be bashing Bobby for making a move too soon. When has Lowe ever given up 8 runs in an inning — never!
Part of the blame for last night’s loss was the offense. Sure the Braves got four runs early, but what happened after that…nada. Why did they quit? Why didn’t they keep scoring? Don’t tell me Mets’ pitching is that good. Chipper and boys just put their tail between their legs, hung their heads, and plain-out quit.
Also I was disappointed in seeing all the love being given the Francouer prior to the game (and during the game), Jeff standing in the middle of about 6 or 7 braves getting hugs, handshakes, laughs, etc. I mean this is the Mets, for goodness sakes, and Jeff is a Met. He is doing for the Mets what he hadn’t done for the Braves in the last two days….and everybody still loves this guy. He’s a Met, a rival, etc.
And, if they don’t get their heads right and in the game, they will lose again tonight and tomorrow night.
1eyedJack
August 19th, 2009
11:18 am
Yeah, C.C. Sabbathia makes half a billion dollars and has exactly two more wins.
ann lewis
August 19th, 2009
11:19 am
again time for wren and cox to go.
isn’t it amazing how their “golden boys” once again, losing ballgames.
EW
August 19th, 2009
11:20 am
agreed. didn’t even read more than the first line of the article.
nemov
August 19th, 2009
11:20 am
If this were New York or Boston Bobby Cox would be roasted for last night’s game. It’s simply baffling to leave a pitcher in the game to give up eight runs. He should have been pulled as soon as it was 4-4. It’s time to find a new manager. Cox lost the game.
cvbraves
August 19th, 2009
11:21 am
(Need to edit my RANT)
Bobby didn’t give up 8 runs, Lowe did! If Bobby had pulled Lowe with the score 4-2 or 4-4 and Medlen had come in and given up another 4, then everyone would be bashing Bobby for making a move too soon. When has Lowe ever given up 8 runs in an inning — never!
Part of the blame for last night’s loss was the offense. Sure the Braves got four runs early, but what happened after that…nada. Why did they quit? Why didn’t they keep scoring? Don’t tell me Mets’ pitching is that good. Chipper and boys just put their tail between their legs, hung their heads, and plain-out quit.
Also I was disappointed in seeing all the love being given Francouer prior to the game (and during the game), Jeff standing in the middle of about 6 or 7 braves getting hugs, handshakes, laughs, etc. I mean this is the Mets, for goodness sakes, and Jeff is a Met. He is doing for the Mets what he hadn’t done for the Braves in the last two years….and everybody still loves this guy. He’s a Met, a rival, etc.
And, if they don’t get their heads right and in the game, they will lose again tonight and tomorrow night.
Phil
August 19th, 2009
11:22 am
I’m waiting for “All I’m Saying”, “Ed-Covington” and “Angus” to jump on this blog and once again try to defend that Moron Cox for that fiasco last night.
nemov
August 19th, 2009
11:24 am
cvbraves – We gave up 1 run after the meltdown. Our bullpen did well last night. That’s why you pull the pitcher when he doesn’t have it. That’s why Cox blew the game.
wayn-o
August 19th, 2009
11:24 am
Not Lowe’s fault (while I do agree he’s not a #1) but it’s Cox responsibility to ‘manage’ the team to have the best chance to win. Of all the times cox over uses his bullpen… yesterday he decides to hold off for a few outs????? what????
nemov
August 19th, 2009
11:26 am
I should add I’ve never been a fan of Cox. I think he’s probably a good baseball man in terms of putting a team together, but he’s not a good game manager. Considering the fact we had 3 Hall of Famer pitchers in our rotation we underperformed by only winning one world series.
TomB
August 19th, 2009
11:27 am
Well cvbraves, we will just have to agree to disagree on this one.Would Medlin have given up the runs in that inning? I guess we’ll never know now will we? It doesn’t take a genius( Or Cox’s intuition) to figure out everything Lowe was throwing was up in the strike zone. I don’t know what was wrong with Lowe(injury?), but I felt sorry for him. He was laboring out there and throwing too many pitches. It wasn’t his night so take him out.Give someone else a chance, and help your ballclub stay in the game. Medlin by the way looked great.
Brian
August 19th, 2009
11:30 am
You know being a manager/coach is tough. Let’s say Cox pulls Derek Lowe before the Mets take the lead. And let’s even say, though it’s unlikely considering the Braves didn’t score afterwards, the Braves pull out the win. How many people would be on here saying “What a fantastic move Bobby made pulling Lowe! He deserves credit for the win!” The answer is zero, because any time a correct move (in hindsight) is made, most fans see it as just a formality. But when circumstances of the game cause a decision to backfire, that decision cost the team the game. You see this phenomenon from fans of all sports and all levels.
Phil
August 19th, 2009
11:30 am
cvbraves,
Could you pitch any better with a callus on your throwing hand and then get drilled with a line drive on the other hand? How can you blame Lowe?
He was sucking it up and doing the best he could.
It was up to Cox to realize he was injured, was not getting anybody out, and needed to come out of the game BEFORE the game got busted wide open.
This one falls on Cox, not Lowe.
RRR
August 19th, 2009
11:31 am
I get the impression that you revel in being the negative voice of the Braves at the AJC Jeff? You also seem to enjoy being the anti-Bradley. Sad that…
Double J
August 19th, 2009
11:31 am
I’m not one to come on here and bash our Hall of Fame manager, but my goodness, what was he thinking last night? Lowe was pitching just fine up until the fourth inning when he was hit with the line drive. He being the veteran pitcher he is, should have shaken it off and gotten out of the inning….unless there was something else wrong. Which there obviously was. Was Bobby unaware of blister on his pitching hand? I doubt it.
I can see leaving him in for a couple batters, but after giving up the lead, then giving the Mets a 4 run lead, then deciding to go get him makes no sense. There is no one holding Bobby accountable for these questionable in-game decisions…and that’s why he continues to make them.
Matt
August 19th, 2009
11:32 am
Hanson does not need to be #1, we have that already in Jair Jurrjens.
Supes
August 19th, 2009
11:33 am
Jeff,
How very observant of you to point out the obvious.
Every knowledgeable Braves fan knows that D-Lowe is not a number 1. He wasn’t brought here to be a number 1 starter (inspite of what’s been said by the Braves, or the fact that Derek Lowe didn’t shy away from taking on that role when the seasons started).
When healthy…Tim Hudson is the Braves number 1 starter. He has the track record to prove it. Won/Loss, ERA and innings pitched plus being able to hold on to the lead when given 4 runs or more to work with.
This is what the Braves rotation will look like in 2010 (you know the year that we fully expect them to challange for the NL East, not this season, anything we get this year is a bonus).
1. Hudson
2. Jurrjens
3. Jazquez
4. Lowe
5. Hanson
Kawakami (odd man out, traded to the Seattle Mariners in the off-season, if not Vazquez will be traded and the rotation will look like this.
1. Hudson
2. Jurrjens
3. Lowe
4. Hanson
5. Kawakami
Either way, Braves will have one of the deepest and best starting rotations in the NL again.
Before long, it won’t matter what kind of pitcher Derek Lowe is, b/c he’ll be back to where he belongs…a solid middle of the rotation starter who will eat innings and MOST of the time, keep you in ballgames.
AZBravoFan
August 19th, 2009
11:34 am
The thing with Lowe is that while he may be flaky and inconsistent, he does tend to show up when the stage is bigger. That very same 2004 where he had an ERA over 5 was the year that he won the clinching games of all 3 post-season series as the Sox went on to win the World Series. So if his regular season lapses don’t sabotage a post-season run, he could be an asset once it gets to crunch time. I think that was what Wren was hoping for when he ponied up the 60 mil.
Toots
August 19th, 2009
11:36 am
Can we plead “no-Lowe”?
Mardi Gras
August 19th, 2009
11:36 am
Poot.
nemov
August 19th, 2009
11:37 am
I’m happy with the way Lowe has pitched. He’s pitched a lot of innings. Last night he didn’t have his best stuff for whatever reason. He was struggling before the 4th inning. It’s the managers job keep the team in the game and Cox just sat there waiting for the 10th batter to hit a ground ball.
TomB
August 19th, 2009
11:38 am
Managing a baseball team maybe tough, but part of managing is knowing your personel. Lowe is a sinkerball pitcher, and everything he was throwing was up.He was getting behind in the count and it was obvoius to me he did’nt have the command that he usually has.If I could see this and the announcers calling the game could then why couldn’t Cox. I think Cox is a good strategical manager, but a poor tactical(game)one. Cox, in my opinion has never handled the pitchers very well. Cox’s job is to do what he can to give his ballclub a chance to win.
Arkansas Transplant
August 19th, 2009
11:41 am
Jeff, It’s about time your on board. I spent the 3 weeks leading up to the trade deadline hitting every known Braves blog hoping someone in management would listen about trading Lowe. I was hoping when the Angels were aggressively looking for a starter the Braves would look at the possiblity of moving Lowe for Brandon Wood and Will Smith (A Ball). That move alone would have moved a significant portion of money off the payroll while also bringing in a very good back up for Chipper which would be nice right now to allow him time to re-coop. Will Smith would have given us a good lefty prospect in the minors plus he’s a GA native.
Yunel Asscobar
August 19th, 2009
11:42 am
This just in – Booby’s headed to the 15-day DL with a severe case of brain farts.
Sonny Clusters
August 19th, 2009
11:43 am
We was out on the mound one time trying to throw with a bad cold and a runny nose and we was not getting it done. Coach looked out there at us and said, “Sonny Clusters, you ain’t got it today, son. I’m coming out there to get you before we lose a lead and give up so many runs we can’t come back.” That’s when Coach did something we will never forget . . . Coach stuck his thumb in his nose way up past the knuckle and twisted and turned and pulled and came out with (content of this post removed). We had never seen anything like that from Coach but he was just having a bad day and we come on off the mound and let Jeff come in and throw and he gave up a double and our runners all scored and we was about to lose the game when Stinky Wintes come up later as a pinch hitter and hit one out and we went on to state champion. Coach was pretty level headed most of the time but when he got into his nose real deep like that he was not much of a coach. We was thinking maybe Bobby Cox is having some of the same problems. Maybe Jeff can ask Bobby about all that nose picking and do a blog on it. We was thinking if we had to do three blogs a day talking about nose picking managers would be about as good as anything and otherwise we might be blogging about Celine Dion gonna have a baby and that might cost Jeff some readers.
Arkansas Transplant
August 19th, 2009
11:44 am
Even in games that he’s won, he’s never ever looked untouchable or dominate! He’s just an average pitcher, average stuff and nothing more. He’s never really been Ace and never will be. 15 mil is just too much for someone of his caliber.
slow roller
August 19th, 2009
11:44 am
Medlen is great! Medlen needs to pitch a lot! Did anyone notice how well he did last? Why didn’t Bobby make the move when it was 4-4?
Bobby doesn’t know how to win a playoff game….every game is a playoff game now where we must win 3 out of 4 games!!!@!!!!!!! We need a reliever at head coach!