It’s not too early for Braves to classify a game as crucial
Ryan Howard watches his home run ball sail over the wall Friday night -- and the Phillies sail to a six-game lead over the Braves in the N.L. East. (AP photo)
There are 51 days left in the regular season and Major League Baseball has you just where they want you: confused.
Some of you believe the National League East race is over. Some of you believe (or at least fear) the wild-card race may be difficult to survive. Some of you believe anything is possible, and for that the Braves and MLB rejoice because it means they’ll hold your attention through the start of the college football and NFL seasons.
So I’ve got a question for you: What do you believe?
The Braves dropped the series opener to Philadelphia, 3-2, Friday night. It was a great game that could’ve gone either way — but of course that really doesn’t amount to much. They left eight men on base. Not going to get it done.
Lose the next two games, and the Braves will be back to eight out and likely dead (again) in the East. Win the next two and they’ll be only four out. Either way, they’ll still be breathing in the wild-card race.
But I’m going to the stadium today — trying to navigate traffic from the Paul McCartney concert, road construction and the International Hair Show (wonder what they can do for me?) — and even with 47 games left to play, I’ve got to think today’s game is as important as they come. It is (cliche alert) somewhat of a statement game.
If the Braves lose, it means they must go into Sunday night’s ESPN game having to beat J.A. Happ (8-2, 2.75; 2-0) just to avoid a sweep. (Happ’s last three starts: 2-0, 1.29). Winning today at least assures they save face following a post-All-Star break surge that led to this weekend’s buildup.
So what do you think? How close is today’s game to must-win? Do you think they can the Braves afford a sweep and still be in this thing? The current standings and a breakdown of the Braves’ remaining schedule are below for cheat notes.
National League East
Team W-L (gr) Pct. GB
Philadelphia 65-48 (49) .575 –
Florida 62-54 (46) .534 4.5
Atlanta 60-55 (47) .522 6
National League wild-card
Team W-L (gr) Pct. GB
Colorado 64-52 (46) .552 –
San Fran. 62-53 (47) .539 1.5
Florida 62-54 (46) .534 2
Atlanta 60-55 (47) .522 3.5
Chicago 59-55 (48) .518 4
Milwaukee 57-58 (47) .496 6.5
Braves’ remaining schedule
Home (30-26): 25
Road (30-29): 22
vs. Arizona: 1
vs. Cincinnati: 3
vs. Florida: 10
vs. Houston: 3
vs. N.Y. Mets: 9
vs. Philadelphia: 8
vs. St. Louis: 3
vs. San Diego: 3
vs. Washington: 7
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77 comments Add your comment
OptimisticInTexas
August 15th, 2009
12:42 pm
That schedule doesn’t look easy, at all. Hopefully they are still in somewhat of contention so I can go watch em play in Houston…
Ryan
August 15th, 2009
12:53 pm
I have to disagree with optimistic. The schedule is pretty soft besides FLA and PHI, and we need to beat the two of them to stay alive in thed two races anyway. Our playoff future is in our hands
Del
August 15th, 2009
1:01 pm
As long as our esteemed mgr keeps picking a 130 BA over a 275 and 350 BA to pinch-hit I don’t hold out much hope. I’m sure there must be a reason for decisions like the one last night, but I’m darned if I know what it could be. I can only hope that the remaining games teach us how to win down the stretch, so that next year we will be prepared to win the East. I don’t believe we will win either prize this year.
Reid Adair
August 15th, 2009
1:04 pm
I think today’s game AND tomorrow’s are both crucial, especially when you look at the remaining schedule.
It’s a shame that this offense, as inconsistent as it has been all season, keeps having spurts to give people a somewhat false sense of hope.
OptimisticInTexas
August 15th, 2009
1:05 pm
Del, I would have liked KJ, yes I said Kelly Johnson, to pinch hit instead of Norton. I mean, didn’t he pinch hit a homerun in LA?
PlusSizeModel
August 15th, 2009
1:12 pm
The Clear Channel Curse lifts after this season, just be patient. In the meantime…FOOTBALL!
goski99
August 15th, 2009
1:13 pm
Yeah, those 3 in StL outa be gimmees, huh Ryan??
Cards fan til the end!!
Joshhh...
August 15th, 2009
1:19 pm
I think anything is possible! I’m still holding out for us to get in the playoffs, we can definitely do it!
Our future is completely in our hands…
Evil Richt 2009 S.E.C. World Tour: "Banned in Columbus"
August 15th, 2009
1:20 pm
I am downtown, can see the Connector from my office (working in Centennial Tower)and traffic is no problem. North and southbound is remarkably free of traffic. Maybe everyone has been scared off by the media predictions of bad traffic.
Reminds me of going to Music Midtown in 1995 (when it was still in Midtown, and, uh still going on) and all the media said to expect congestion around the area and don’t try and drive to it and park. I ended up parking on in one of several open spots on the street about 3 blocks from the gates. So don’t always believe the hype.
Also, I’m looking at the anti-Obamacare rally going on in Centennial Park, and there are maybe a thousand people there (after a prediction of 25K). I guess people just weren’t in the mood to go sit in the sun on a 90+ degree day and listen to Ralph Reed give his thoughts on the single payer system.
TrueBlueBrave
August 15th, 2009
1:29 pm
I wonder how much good it does to question Bobby’s decisions given the fact that if he goes the way we would’ve and it works, we consider him a genius and if the reverse is true we automatically dub him an idiot. I say we because I’m as guilty as anyone. I tried to convince myself last night that Norton was capable despite his numbers this year and after all, he did draw a walk. My choice would’ve been Infante to PH, but who knows whether that would’ve worked either.
I choose to stand behind our manager and our team in success and failure even when I think the choices made are questionable. There are a lot of games left and as it has been said many times, our fate is in our own hands. Isn’t that always the case? GO BRAVES!
Larry
August 15th, 2009
1:38 pm
The Braves win a “must win” game? No. Not with this manager. Only Bobby Cox can continue to snatch a loss fro the jaws of deveat.
Only Bobby Cox would take the lefter Gonzalez out after three 8th inning popups and not let him just pitch to one more batter, the lefty Howard, and then bring in Soriano after this.
Only Bobby Cox.
JBfromNYC
August 15th, 2009
1:44 pm
I wonder if Cox will continue to stay with McCann in the 4th slot. He’s not getting it done there and I think its time to replace him and move him to the 5th slot. Perhaps Escobar or LaRoche should get a turn batting cleanup.
McFann Ô
August 15th, 2009
1:57 pm
JBfromNYC–
I got some bad news for ya…BMac’s still batting 4th.
WHY, BOBBY?? WHY??
Mitch C
August 15th, 2009
2:05 pm
While the Braves certainly are still alive, last night’s game concerned me greatly. It was a great game to watch, but also a bitter, bitter pill to swallow. It’s the type of game you hope they can shake off, and wont lead to a losing streak.
If we win the next two, and are only four out of the East, that wont be bad. After three years out of the playoffs, I just want to make the playoffs, in any way. I could care less if it was the wild card. 3-1-2 out of the WC is very much alive. Also, do you think that the 1997 and 2003 Marlins, or other wild card World Champions, cared that they were only the “Wild card” when they celebrated their titles in those late Octobers?
The Braves have been resiliant lately, and hopefully can be so again in these next two games against Philly.
Mitch
well that was fun
August 15th, 2009
2:10 pm
your all just setting yourselves up for disappointment and deep down you all know it. Might as well just wash the football gear and get your fantasy guides ready. this goose is cooked.
BravesfaninWis
August 15th, 2009
2:16 pm
I know last night wasn’t considered a ” Walk Off HR” by Howard, but it may as well have been. It happened late in the game where neither team could get runs. I happened after so many of the Braves just missed the long ball to blow the Phillies away and make a statement. That was the hit that broke the camels back. Even though they had a legit shot at at least tying the game in the 9th, it seemed like they were pouting instead of trying to find a way to get Diaz in from second. They absolutely need to win today, or they can forget about this season. I know their are still many games to play, but they still have to play the East in several of those games, and if last night was any indication, they could be dropping well behind in the next couple of weeks in both the division race, and the WC.. They will have only themselves to blame for that..
Piedmont Blues (x-BFIR)
August 15th, 2009
2:19 pm
Eight games vs. Philly, 10 vs. Florida. If the Braves can’t make a run, they have no one to blame but themselves.
Ozzie
August 15th, 2009
2:25 pm
McCann is not hitting and needs to be moved down to the 6th spot IMHO – no higher.
Norton needs to be DFA.
Omar and KJ should be used as late inning PH over Norton if they keep him which as I said they shouldn’t.
In terms of the pen and last night. When Bobby overplays LH/RH matchmaking it usually flops. When he goes with the hot hand it flops.
Basically he is either very unlucky, has terrible instincts or lacks talent in the pen.
I say its all three. The pen is good not great. They each have flashes of great but not one of these arms is a performance mule that is near perfect.
There is no 50 consecutive saves closer in that bunch and there hasn’t been since Smoltz.
Too bad Smoltz couldn’t come back as a closer and show them how it was done. Imagine this rotation and team with the Smoltz closer of old.
That is the problem with the Braves more than anything else they are always a key piece or three away from being a force.
Murphy47
August 15th, 2009
2:27 pm
Day off Thur…um LEAVE REPEAT LEAVE Gonzo in to face Howard…that’s not hindsight 20/20, that’s very simple baseball matchups…then Sorr only gets 2 outs and can go another if needed. I wanted to smash my own head in the TV when I saw Dorkton wondering around on deck…ENOUGH!! Yes he drew a walk, (what does that say about Lidge btw he walks a 130 or whatever hitter) but my God EEEENOUGH. Get somebody else in there!!!!!!
BravesFanForever
August 15th, 2009
2:29 pm
Has anyone in baseball ever heard of three strikes and you are out? Soriano has given up 3 game ending homers recently. He doesn’t need to go out there as the closer any more when I thought it was agreed Gonzo and he would alternate! BMac ain’t hittin’. He should have been replaced in the four hole a long time ago. 3 strikes ended weeks ago. And what about the biggest mystery: Awful .138 Norton?? He should have been dumped after the first month this year. Look, if he has cost us even 2 games that’s 2 games in the standings!
To think that we went so long with .200 hitting Schafer, Johnson, and Frenchy. Man, it’s no wonder we are so far behind. The thing is.. It’s not like we were necessarily painted into a corner. We have had capable hitters all season who could have taken over. Wren has made some decent moves to get McLouth, Church, and LaRoche but again, not like we could have done better the first half.
Anyway… Too late now. We are where we are and that’s it. Just gotta deal with what we have and hope things work out in the end.
If the Braves don’t make the playoffs this year, they will be in a strong position next year, especially if Heyward makes it to the big time, we make a key trade or two in the off season, and Hudson comes back strong. If this happens, I bet many people will pick the Braves to finish in the division and many will pick them to win the W.S. (like I said, only with Heyward and a key trade–I still believe the team is lacking)
JEB
August 15th, 2009
2:29 pm
If the Braves keep the same winning record they have had since the all-star break, into the rest of the season, they can realistically win 90 -92 wins. That would give them a shot at the division, or help them win the wild card. This is a tough division to do this with!
Th Braves, Phillies, and Marlins will be there till the end!
sidslid
August 15th, 2009
2:39 pm
Schedule is a cakewalk except for games against the two teams we chase. Have Philly and Marlins completed their west coast swings? Figure SF and Col will elimate one or the other because of head to head. Cubbies-how many more with Pirates and Reds?
richbrave
August 15th, 2009
2:46 pm
JEFF:
You and I pronounced the BRAVES dead in the water in late June. Now that July has revived hope, I appreciate your printing the remaining opponents of 2009. Assuming the BRAVES split their remaining schedule against the NL EAST with the exception of the NATIONALS, our heros would stand at 74-68. That leaves seven games against the WASHINGTON club and 13 games with the balance of the NL for a total of 20 games. They will have to beat the NATS 5-2 the rest of the way and the rest of the league 10-3 to get to 89 wins and any reasonable chance at the wild-card. Frankly, I don’t think they can do it.
Which leaves us with what might have been if the experiments with KELLY JOHNSON, JORDAN SCHAFER, and JEFF FRANCOUER had been resolved earlier in the season. A lot of great pitching was wasted for wont of good hitting. Kinda’ like 1990.
JORDAN SCHAFER might pan-out eventually, but I believe KJ is damaged goods psychologically and should be traded if the contract allows it. GREG NORTON’s days as a BRAVE should be at an end. HEYWARD, FREEMAN and others are the stuff of late 2010 and 2011.
Braves fan in Utah
August 15th, 2009
2:47 pm
The Braves lose ONE game after winning 5 straight while playing some of the best baseball in the majors after the all-star break – come on fans >>…. show some support!!! We have a lot of good baseball left and I am still convinced the Braves can win the next 2 games and be in contention for the title. Go Braves!!
Jeff Schultz
August 15th, 2009
2:50 pm
# A comment on the schedule – it’s actually easier than we would’ve thought it would be, largely because those nine games against the Mets, who’ve seemingly lost half their team to injuries. But you’ve got 21 games against teams (phils, marlins, cardinals) who are potential playoff teams.
# Optimistic – yes, and a month ago who’d think you would’ve wanted Kelly Johnson.
# For those wondering: McCann is batting fourth again today.
Dominic
August 15th, 2009
2:52 pm
It was truly ridiculous that Gonzalez was not left in to face Howard and Ibanez. The worst part is that the announcers never ever seem to question Bobby. They made an excuse for him as always. “well, you can’t get a save in an extra inning game, if you’re the home team.” Since when did the goal change from winning the game to getting you closer a save? If he’s trying to save Gonzalez’s arm, then he shouldn’t bring him up with 6 run leads (see dodgers series). I love Bobby and he’s a legend, but bullpen management has been horrific.
Also, I disagree with some of the other posters, McCann should hit clean up. He smoked a ball, just a great play by Victorino. Maybe he needs to rest more, but he’s certainly our second best hitter. You can’t keep juggling your lineups and trying to guess which day he’ll get an extra base hit.
Jfreak
August 15th, 2009
2:52 pm
Pitching will keep the Braves in the Wild Card race but the division is lost. They just got too far behind and Philly is too good to let it go with this kind of lead. As I said yesterday the Braves will lose 2 out of 3 but will keep pace in the wild card race. They have a real chance to pick up some ground there as they are better than the teams ahead of them and their schedule appears softer??
Either way it’s been a good season and it’s nice to see these guys not pack it in after a bad start. They have a solid team to build from and MAYBE just MAYBE the sneak into the wild card slot and make a run at the World Series?? It has been done before and they have playoff pitching (starters) We need some bullpen help!!!
Jfreak
August 15th, 2009
2:57 pm
By the way, you don’t move your team leader and best hitter down in the line up just because he is in a SHORT slump. McCann can hit and will hit again soon!
richbrave
August 15th, 2009
3:01 pm
Just one more comment. The record against the PHILLIES is currently 7-3. As JEFF has pointed out, the MELTS are seriously crippled. Pulling out strong winning ratios against those two east opponants and WASHINGTON would make it a lot easier to get to the playoffs. I don’t like the idea of having to sweep the CARDINALS or even the PADRES in order to get to the 89-90 win level.
richbrave
August 15th, 2009
3:03 pm
And who said we wanted KELLY? Not me. I think the experiment is over and the results are in.
mcgannfan
August 15th, 2009
3:04 pm
even though I am a big McCann fan, someone else needs to be in clean up. my preference would be Escobar as he can get it done with RISP
count_schemula
August 15th, 2009
3:06 pm
The announcers say Howard hits .190 against lefties and we run a righty out there. What is wrong with having 2 closers? Neither is Mariano, so, what does it matter? Go with the hot hand. Last night’s game was must win, especially since they were in a position to win it. Heck, even Chipper laid out like a 26 year old to grab that smash. He was on the bench after the game looking exasperated. They need to win the next 2, but they also need to change the momentum now. Go Braves! Go Kawakami!
count_schemula
August 15th, 2009
3:09 pm
Soriano does not suck, so, don’t think that. He is the type of pitcher that will give up the occasional long ball, and often strike out the side. This is why there are only a half dozen or so elite closers in the game at any one time. I love Soriano and don’t think for a minute that his demeanor means that he does not care. He gave up a homer to freaking Ryan Howard. It’s going to happen.
Jeff Schultz
August 15th, 2009
3:15 pm
So here’s some McCann numbers I just added up and might use later in a column: In the last 12 games, he’s 6-for-41 (.146) and has stranded 22 base runners. …. There are some other numbers but that’s the crux of it. … Anybody else think maybe he’s just getting tired?
Mitchell
August 15th, 2009
3:19 pm
Frank Wren did everything possible to help this team win. Bobby didn’t do his job in the first half.
It shouldn’t be such a life or death scenario but it is. They have to win today. Of course, they have to win tomorrow too. And the next day.
They’ve played extremely well the last two September’s with inferior teams. The wild card is not out of reach. But we just don’t have that edge anymore. In past years we probably would have won that game… you know, like when Victorino and Werth were in high school.
We have to find ways to win. There might not have been any last night so we’re just going to have to bounce back.
Mitchell
August 15th, 2009
3:22 pm
… Anybody else think maybe he’s just getting tired?
Uh, yeah.
And he shouldn’t be batting 4th for Christ’s sake. He’s putting too much pressure on himself but Bobby for some reason hasn’t quite picked up on it. We need a little out of the box thinking from the man. That’s probably asking too much.
But seriously, take your pick of clean-up hitters. Get him out of there Bobby.
Mitchell
August 15th, 2009
3:24 pm
# For those wondering: McCann is batting fourth again today.
Schultz, you gotta be kidding me.
I can’t take it.
Gary
August 15th, 2009
3:28 pm
I am really getting burned up that the same reliever has thrown away 3 games in the last ten days. As far as I am concerned, he is not focused when he gets on the mound. Not prepared for the first hitter. What ever you want to call it, the Braves cannot let one player continue to lose these crucial games. Bobby Cox, you better wake up!
Jeff Schultz
August 15th, 2009
3:31 pm
Mitchell, the lineup: McClouth-Prado-Jones-McCann-Escobar-Anderson-Diaz-LaRoche-Kawakami.
Dawgdad
August 15th, 2009
3:34 pm
B Mac is tired, a good manager would give him more and more days off in the latter part of the season. Ross has been surprisingly good when given a chance, so give him a chance. If Mac plays move him down to 6 or 7 and take some of the pressure off him. Everyone is right about Cox should have left Gonzo in to face Howard in the ninth, but Cox does everything in a rote fashion. If it worked yesterday let’s stay with it, that is his philosophy. We need a new manager for sure. Hopefully someone will get through to Cox that his time has passed.
R. E. Kern
August 15th, 2009
3:34 pm
Enter your comments here It’s almost “Just wait until next year” time for the Braves.
NO MORE BOBBY
August 15th, 2009
3:35 pm
How many must win games can one team have in a season?
jt
August 15th, 2009
3:39 pm
I swear I have never seen a bunch of fair weather fans. Bobby played the percentages in both the Norton and Soriano situations. One worked and one didn’t. Soriano made one bad pitch. Remember, Howard is no slouch at the bat. No guarantees that Gonzo doesn’t make a bad pitch also. He has not been automatic. Be grateful we are where we are. I thought all along we were a .500 team no better. Be glad we are even smelling the playoffs.
Angus
August 15th, 2009
3:42 pm
I love how after every loss we hear from the Bobby Cox haters. After a win……cricket chirps. BTW, we’ve won more than we’ve lost this year.
We lost a 3-2 baseball game. Chill out.
Dwell on Greg Norton, KJ, and our way-overachieving bullpen if it makes you feel better.
Me, I saw last night where Utley and Howard were strong enough to hit it out of the park, but Chipper, B-Mac, GA, & Lil-Mac were not.
GREG NORTON
August 15th, 2009
3:50 pm
Come on guys. It’s only mid-August. Give me time to find my swing!
Angus
August 15th, 2009
3:55 pm
And to answer your question, Schultz, I give them about a 1 in 8 chance of making the post-season. Just hoping they keep it interesting until football starts.
Navigator
August 15th, 2009
3:56 pm
I agree with the statistics not being critical, but I think there is something a lot more critical and that’s Soriano. He’s not a closer, if you look at big games. There’s always a reason why a pitcher with his physical abilities bounce around the league. Something is missing between his ears that makes great relievers what they are. I hate to use the word but it’s something like cut throat, and if you close you have no friends. Your only mission in life is stop the other team from scoring no matter what you do to make that happen. It’s kinda like being a pirate, heartless desire to take wins from whoever you’re playing, even if it’s a family member.
Toots
August 15th, 2009
3:56 pm
Not you mentioned it Jeff, but don’t you love that ballpark organ?
braves70
August 15th, 2009
3:59 pm
As long as Bobby Cox is the manager, nothing will ever change. He will always use Norton or Lockhart, or someone like that to pinch hit with the game on the line. He will continue to use Soriano or Wickman or Kolb or their equal in the 9th inning no matter who is coming to the plate. He will always pad his roster with the likes of Chrs Woodward, Corky Miller and others because he sees them as what he was: A journeyman marginal major leaguer.
His act grew old a long time ago and now he has grown old as well. His stubborness has only increased with the years. His surly attitude causes no one to question any of his moves. Someday, someone will realize that the Emperor has no clothes at all.
nycbravesfan
August 15th, 2009
4:10 pm
FOX has once again ruined my afternoon, because of their exclusive rights, they have blackedout the game on MLB.TV, and are showing the Mets Giants game on FOX cable. Seriously, National Broadcasts should rethink this strategy.