Hindsight dept.: LaRoche deal good; Francoeur deal, um…
Adam LaRoche's two homers in Wednesday night's victory has tipped the scales in the Boston trade. (AP photo)
Let’s start with the disclaimers:
♦ Trades can’t be judged before the season is over.
♦ Trades can’t be judged in one year.
♦ Trades can’t be judged at all because you never know if the player hitting home runs for Team A would’ve hit home runs for Team B if he hadn’t been traded.
♦ Trades can’t be judged for probably a dozen other reasons that any general manager who might be
Somebody loves New York: Jeff Francoeur is hitting .297 with five homers since the Braves dealt him there. (AP photo)
taking some heat will be quick to think of when the time is right.
But in the second of week of August, I say: Let’s judge! Call this a progress report.
Braves general manager Frank Wren made two one-for-one trades in July. One sacrificed Jeff Francoeur – whom Wren didn’t believe would ever come back and had no intention of giving a raise to after this season – for the Mets’ Ryan Church, a career fourth outfielder. The other sent hot-hitting (at the time) first baseman Casey Kotchman to Boston for a former Brave, Adam LaRoche, who I think had been in Boston for about seven minutes after being traded from Pittsburgh.
I figured this would be a timely blog since LaRoche homered twice in the Braves’ win over Washington Wednesday night. That made Wren look pretty good because he swung the deal primarily with hopes of adding some power to the lineup.
Here are the early numbers on the two trades. Check them out, then vote in the polls. I am.
Adam LaRoche vs. Casey Kotchman
♦ Trade date: July 31.
♦ Reason for the trade: LaRoche’s history as a better second-half hitter and the ability to hit more home runs than Kotchman.
♦ Records since the trade: Braves 8-3, Red Sox 5-6.
♦ LaRoche: 10 games, 13 for 35 (.371), 3 HR, 7 RBI, .465 on-base pct., .657 slugging pct.
♦ Kotchman: 6 games, 4 for 16 (.250), 1 HR, 3 RBI, .333 on-base pct, .438 slugging pct.
♦ Early winner: Braves.
Ryan Church vs. Jeff Francoeur
♦ Trade date: July 10.
♦ Reason for the trade: Francoeur’s fall from grace and the likelihood he wasn’t going to be re-signed.
♦ Records since the trade: Braves 18-10, Mets 13-16.
♦ Contributing factor to Mets’ record unrelated to Francoeur: New York has been decimated by injuries, including, but not limited to: Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes and Gary Sheffield.
♦ Church: 21 games, 17 for 62 (.274), 2 HR, 10 RBI, .400 on-base pct., .435 slugging pct.
♦ Francoeur: 29 games, 33 for 111 (.297), 5 HR, 20 RBI, .336 on-base pct., .477 slugging pct.
♦ Early winner Mets.
Your thoughts? You votes?
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227 comments Add your comment
Ron E.
August 13th, 2009
11:05 am
The Braves win both trades because — one fluky replacement level month by Jeff aside — they no longer have Jeff Francoeur forming a black hole in the middle of their line up for the rest of the year and beyond.
Ed
August 13th, 2009
11:06 am
I think the Braves clubhouse is a better place now that Francoeur has taken his “million hitting coaches” to NYC! Church is able to play all 3 OF spots, plus getting rid of Francoeur allows G. Anderson to play all the time and not platoon with Diaz which is making the Braves a better ball club. I was dead wrong on the LaRoche deal. Man, LaRoche is killing it!
Homer
August 13th, 2009
11:09 am
FIRE SCHULTZ!!!
Skeet~O
August 13th, 2009
11:09 am
francey-pants wasnt doing jack here and wasnt going to, so the real winner is neither the Braves nor Mets, but him. I’ll take Church’s production since he’s been here over jeff’s while he was here
MiltonDawg
August 13th, 2009
11:09 am
Braves did it better. Much Kudos to Wren for making moves..especially Glavine & Smoltz. The scouts always know better than the fans. Francoeur was a no brainer…you have Heyward ready to come up hopefully by next year. Let’s sweep the Phils!!!!!!!!!!
wardo
August 13th, 2009
11:09 am
The braves won in the Frenchy trade based on subtraction. It was time for him to move on. I hope he has a great career but the Braves needed to make room for phenom right fielder Jason Haywood. No brainer.
dap01
August 13th, 2009
11:11 am
The Braves are a better team with Church than Failcure.
You have to give Wren credit. Compare where we were at the end of last year and where we are now. Great job.
Jeff Schultz
August 13th, 2009
11:11 am
Ed — Agree on LaRoche. If that trade somehow ends up making the difference in the Braves getting to the playoffs, it would be stunning for a move that was not universally embraced (and was generally shrugged at).
Missing the Braves of the 90's...
August 13th, 2009
11:11 am
I wasn’t too crazy about seeing LaRoche back when i heard about it, because i liked Kotchman. But when you are WRONG you’re Wrong! Good moves for the Braves!
Thoughts
August 13th, 2009
11:13 am
LaRoche has looked decent since coming back, however he’s two homer, three RBI game last night helps make your case and Kotchman has played in only 6 games with the Mets so far.
Fancoeur’s numbers are ok with the Mets so far, but that .336 OBP is the reason he’s not in an Atlanta uniform anymore
Brian
August 13th, 2009
11:13 am
Francoeur’s got twice as many at-bats as Church, but I think Church has been better then Francoeur, offensively (higher OPS) and defensively (higher range factor and has played CF), since the trade. Toss in the fact that Church’s production has been consistent with his last few years, while Francoeur’s has been a strong aberration from what he proved himself to be the last 2.5 years. The Braves have played much better since the trade, the Mets worse. Easy decision…Braves won both trades.
Vinofino
August 13th, 2009
11:18 am
Jeff, you should have “both” as a choice in your voting, and I think it’s clear that regardless of the on-field results, the Braves and Muts both won in the trade. Each team got rid of a “problem”, and both players got a fresh start. I hope Francoeur continues to resurge with the Mets (except when playing the Braves), but it seemed clear that was not going to happen as a Brave. We’ll never know if it was hometown pressure, bitterness at the front office, some issue w/ sharing the spotlight with McCann, etc, but Frenchy needed to get out of Atlanta. I was scratching my head when Wren made the LaRoche trade, but early results sure look good!
DawgFan
August 13th, 2009
11:18 am
I had actually said to someone early on the day LaRoche was traded here that it would be a trip if Atlanta brought him back. And I’m glad they did. He’s provided a spark I didn’t think the Braves would be able to find.
And Frank Wren is beginning to look pretty smart. Of course, I was all for letting go of Smoltz.
Bill
August 13th, 2009
11:20 am
I would say your third bullet point addresses the Jeff F trade. He would still not be hitting in Atlanta.
ProScout
August 13th, 2009
11:20 am
As someone already said, the real winner is Jeff. He has the tools to be a productive major league player he just needed a change of scenery. Lot of pressure, home town kid, 1st rounder, free swinger, put up numbers early in career, etc. Church’s production has been better then Jeff’s while he was here (over the past season and half) and Church can play all 3 OF positions. The Laroche deal is a no brainer. The Braves desperately needed some pop in the lineup and they got it.
Wren has done an outstanding job this season with the moves. He doesn’t look so foolish now for letting Smoltz and Glavine go does he????
JJ
August 13th, 2009
11:21 am
The problem with just comparing stats in the Frenchy / Church trade is that Church gives the Braves some other things that Frenchy couldn’t. For instance, Church can fill in for Nate in CF, Frenchy couldn’t. Church will take a ton of pitches and have very good ABs, making the pitcher work and generally being productive. Frenchy swung at the first pitch and usually had very unproductive ABs.
Finally, Frenchy was lost at the plate in ATL. Maybe it was TP, maybe it was the pressure of the hometown, maybe he just had too many voices telling him what to do. I don’t know. But it was time for him to leave. I HIGHLY doubt he would have put up the same numbers here that he has in NY. And Church, despite not quite as good of numbers, is servicable, flexible, and productive.
Class of '98
August 13th, 2009
11:21 am
Jeff your third bullet point negates the rest of the column.
I DO NOT BELIEVE Jeff Francoeur would have produced the same had he stayed in Atlanta. He just had too much baggage, too much pressure, too much swirling around his head.
That’s why the Braves traded him. He needed new scenery and a fresh start.
Mangum
August 13th, 2009
11:22 am
Is it me or does LaRoche remind you of a certain Sesamie Street character…Bert!
PMC
August 13th, 2009
11:22 am
Good for Jeff… I’m glad he’s doing well. He wasn’t doing squat here if he stayed until he was 45. He would make an adjustment for about 3 days then go right back to his bad habits. He needed a change of scenery and new coaches. I hope he can keep up his good play… but to say Jeff is really anything more than a great defensive (IE 4th) outfielder is stretching it. He’s been one of the worst offensive everyday players…. not to mention corner outfielders in the entirety of the majors. He has not played himself into the contract he turned down 2 years ago. In that sense…. it was a fair trade because the Braves get more competitive with salary and in the lineup.
Boog
August 13th, 2009
11:24 am
Francoer will start Francoeuring any day now… he will go into one of his 2 for 30’s. Church OBP is still better than Francoeur even when he is in one of his overachieving stretches.
pickin' daisies
August 13th, 2009
11:24 am
The Francoeur deal was addition by subtaction at it’s lowest level. He had to go, and it didn’t matter who (Church) or what (bag of bp balls)we got in return.
I think if anything is proved by Francoeur’s one month performance as a Met it’s that he let different variables affect his on the field performance, I.E. his ego, and pride.
He under performed because he was booed, because he was sent to the minors, and because he couldn’t keep up with McCann. He would of never of turned it around in a Braves Uniform.
ITP Brave
August 13th, 2009
11:26 am
It’s tough to know right now whether JF is hitting a rare “hot streak” or if he has really turned the corner and pulled out of his two-year slump. If it’s the latter, the Mets are the clear winners in this trade, and someone needs to ask Terry Pendleton what he was doing while working with JF for the past two years.
I fully believe that the LaRoche deal was primarily a financial one, but it is nice to not see our 1B hitting eighth in the lineup (and hitting more than one homerun every blue moon).
Mark C.
August 13th, 2009
11:27 am
Best of luck to Francouer, but I don’t think he ever had a .400 OBP over a twenty plus game stretch. Braves win!
John T
August 13th, 2009
11:27 am
Here is the point that puts the brave clearly over the edge on both trades. The right side of the field is open for Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward.
Johnny Hazeltine
August 13th, 2009
11:29 am
I still cheer for Francoeur to get it right, regardless of where Frank Wren sent him.
Ed-Covington
August 13th, 2009
11:29 am
No matter what the excuses or alibis, the Mets are dtill losers after the Francour trade while the Braves are now winning. Also note that Church has half the ABs and about half the stats. Francour will be watching the postseason with Sonny again this year. LaRoche trade is a definite win for the Braves; no-brainer, if just for his better demeanor in the clubhouse. I hope they keep him one more year until Freeman is ready, but he will probably be offered more by a more desperate team; good luck to him either way (unless he lands in the NL East.)
mike
August 13th, 2009
11:30 am
History does repeat itself (we hope) LaRoche is our Sid Bream. I can see that slide at the plate right now, against the Nationals as we play out the string and make it to the playoffs.
Volman
August 13th, 2009
11:33 am
Mr. Schultz, I’m just happy to see Francoeur gone. This isn’t a Jonas Brother’s concert (we don’t need the teeny bopper girls screaming and yelling everytime he comes to the plate). Jersey sales will be down…but I’d rather win more games. We need to win ball games.
The LaRoche trade was great. Good to have him back. Glad Frenchy is gone—his head had gotten too big to stay with Atlanta.
EW
August 13th, 2009
11:35 am
Good for Frenchy. He can finally play without all the fair weather nay sayers on his back. We still win because I don’t think he could have performed that way in Atlanta. Great for him to get a change of scenery. Church is just a temporary fix until the Heyward, Schaffer, Hanson era begins. LaRoche deal looks good, Smoltz and Glavine no deal looks good, Church deal looks good enough. Where are all the Wren haters now?
Space Monkey
August 13th, 2009
11:37 am
The Francoeur trade is a classic case of addition by subtraction.
DP
August 13th, 2009
11:38 am
It’s instructive that in what is probably his hottest one month stretch of the last 2-3 years Francouer has a relatively poor .336 OBP. When Chipper made the comment about the Braves lineup being better because it no longer had a bunch of “automatic outs”, he was obviously referring to Francouer, KJ and Schafer.
No Respect
August 13th, 2009
11:38 am
I think the Braves won on the Mets deal and broke even on the Red Sox deal.
As for the Sox deal…both are excellent first basemen, it just depends on what you need in your lineup. Kotchman is a contact hitter that can move runners around and hit gaps, but was not going to provide the long ball. Laroche can provide the long ball and drive in runs…all depends on what your lineup needs.
The Francoeur deal was a no brainer. I lost all respect for Francoeur last year with the minor league stint. Jeff had not been in the league long enough or earned enough respect to voice his opinion about being sent down. He is a young man playing a boys game and living the dream and must understand that every position on the field is a compotition, not only against the other team but future players. If your not willing to do whatever it takes to earn your position…find somebody else to play for.
I’ll take nine ballplayers giving 110% versus a team full of superstars!!! There is no I in team and Francoeurs is certainly an I type player!!!!!!
Chris
August 13th, 2009
11:41 am
Francoer is performing better in NY BECAUSE he was traded
his performance would not have been that good had he stayed in Atlanta. The simplistic comparison misses that point entirely
Evil Richt 2009 S.E.C. World Tour: "Banned in Columbus"
August 13th, 2009
11:41 am
Jeff-
Remember when you were wondering why the Braves weren’t considering trading Escobar and Kelly Johnson along with Francoeur?(http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2009/06/15/escobar-and-the-next-wave-are-killing-braves/)
h/t Michael Elkon at “Braves and Birds” ( http://bravesandbirds.blogspot.com/2009/08/thoughts-after-big-weekend-in-mannywood.html“)
ExecutiveStinger
August 13th, 2009
11:43 am
Pickin’ Daises is on the mark…..every point is true.
The Bottom Line of both deals in the mind of Frank Wren: ARE WE WINNING? And that answer is quite clear. I hope we make the playoffs; I don’t know if we will or not. Either way, we are winning right now and that was his goal. Is that because of his exceptional wizardry as a GM making those two swaps? Who knows? Probably not Wren either. But the goal is, for now at least, being accomplished.
For the purposes of judgment in your little blog Jeff, we win both. The Francoeur trade for the reasons Pickin’ Daises mentioned, and the LaRoche trade is obvious.
Hose
August 13th, 2009
11:44 am
The Braves win both. You cant compare stats when Franceour is a starter and Church is 4th outfielder. Braves are better ball club since the moves.
Jeff Schultz
August 13th, 2009
11:44 am
I’ve got to tell you — I’m astounded at the amount of Francoeur bashing here. I understand the guy crashed and burned but does he really deserve this? And a question: If Jeff continues to put up these numbers (and I realize that’s a big if) will you still be happy that he’s no longer a Brave?
John
August 13th, 2009
11:46 am
Braves win both trades. You think Francoeur would have hit those homers for the Braves? Definitely not.. he was pushing himself too much here, and is more relaxed with the Mets.. I agree that his offensive numbers as far as RBI’s and homers are better than Church’s but I would rather have a guy who can consistently put together quality at-bats, than a guy who has no clue of the strike zone.. OPS is very important for a lead-off guy, which Church has been recently, and for a guy hitting 7th and 8th to help turn the line-up over. Plus, Frenchy was a glaring hole in the line-up for the past 2 years. I like him, but he had to go..
stupidisasstupiddoes
August 13th, 2009
11:48 am
Does anybody remember Roachy getting thrown out at home while loafing around the bases against Houston in the playoffs? I still can get over that.
DirtyDawg
August 13th, 2009
11:51 am
Don’t know what it has been – Francoeur waking up with the trade…people forgetting how to pitch to him…that new ball-park – but I’m happy for the kid. As with all the others here, Jeff was never gonna return to what he, and we, thought he was gonna be if he’d stayed here. Move on.
I too liked Kotchman, but LaRoche is tearing it up and, hopefully, will keep it up. I’ll take all the Frank Wren ‘one-for-one’ deals he wants to make, just so long as we never again do a Texiera or J D Drew-type thing. I get pissed every time I think of ‘em.
hop
August 13th, 2009
11:52 am
the braves coaching especially hitting could not help frenchy, but he is in a great enviroment playing for a new york team and it appears that he has responded very well.
his opportunities ,if he performs are much greater than atlanta since he will be playing is the largest market in the majors.
John
August 13th, 2009
11:53 am
I’m fine with him no being a Brave, Jeff… Francoeur has shown he won’t take his walks.. he will not last long with his free winging ways… and it really doesn’t matter, because he has shown he couldn’t do it any more with the Braves.. I’m not bashing him, he just couldn’t get past the Hometown Hero status anymore, and was pressing way too much… Plus he still doesn’t take his walks in NY and that will come back to bite him in the @zz sooner rather than later.. Heyward has already shown patience at the plate in AA, and he’ll be up at The Show soon…count on it!
Joe Schmoe
August 13th, 2009
11:53 am
I am glad we got rid of Francine, addition by subtraction. Church does not seem to be a problem to me, and always comes out to play unlike his predacessor.
The real winner is Frank Wren for not trading Yunel. I cant believe so many were calling us to trade our best player, because he couldnt speak english, frosted tip hair, or whatever the chime of the day was. Without Yunel, this team is toast.
frenchy sucks
August 13th, 2009
11:54 am
I used to like Jeff and my not liking him has nothing to do with his performance.
It was his attitude toward being sent to the minors. He deserved to go, he was doing terrible!! He thought he was a hometown kid that was going to get different treatment. Nope Jeff, its a business and you aren’t wanted in Atlanta anymore.
Craig
August 13th, 2009
11:54 am
In all honesty, I’m not sure Frank Wren has made a bad deal this year. Sure, KK was a stretch and may have cost too much (I’m not so sure yet), but people were saying “stay pat” and “he’s done enough” and “don’t just make a move to shake things up” but….
THE SEASON OF WREN, IN RECAP:
Wren gave up basically nothing for JV; signed a rock in Lowe [who, while maybe not being lights out, has at least been predictable 7-8 innings 2-4 runs (predictability is worth a lot in baseball to me...just look at Kawakami for unpredictability)]; traded an unproductive Francoeur for Church who has a better OBP; traded for McLouth, a much better CF than any of our other options; Signed Garret Anderson, while everyone wanted Griffey (who sucks this year); brought up Hanson over Glavine, which has been an excellent move; Didn’t sign Smoltz (obviously a great move); Lost the battle for Furcal, but Escobar & Prado/Johnson I’d argue have been better (what would’ve happened with Furcal anyway?)
In hindsight, where has Wren really gone wrong????
Art Vandelay
August 13th, 2009
11:55 am
I’ll take a .400 OBP from Church any day. And, to be fair, if you extrapolate Church’s numbers in 62 ABs to Francoeur’s 111, they’re on a similar pace as far as production per AB. Frenchy has a little less than double the number of ABs, with 5 HR and 20 RBIs to Church’s 2 and 10. Safe to assume that if Church had been in the lineup every day since we got him, those numbers would probably be more like 3 HR and 18 RBI or so, which is more than fine with me when you consider how much better he is at getting on base overall.
Dave in Buford
August 13th, 2009
11:57 am
I don’t get the bashing either … he played hard while he was here (not very effectively the last year and a half, but he played hard). I have to admit, I won’t like the trade much if the kid has an MVP season any time soon.
Wren made the right call in both cases … LaRoche is an upgrade over Kotchman. He’s NOT an upgrade over 60% of the first basemen in the league, but Wren wasn’t going to get anybody else anyway. Remember, the owners of the Braves are still a corporation with a budget, so the team isn’t gonna spend any money on anyone who is any good.
Oh, and Wren made the right decision on both Smoltz and Glavine, so get over those too.
Supes
August 13th, 2009
11:59 am
Jeff,
slow newsday and the combination of a looming deadline = the article/blog you just posted.
ExecutiveStinger
August 13th, 2009
11:59 am
I’m with John….
Francoeur may continue to do fairly well, but I won’t want him back. I hope the emergence of Jason Heyward will help us to forget about what Francoeur is doing. I am, like John, thoroughly convinced that whatever success Francoeur has in the future would not have happened in Atlanta. There is NO reason to believe otherwise. God knows if he was going to have success here and get it going, that he was given every opportunity. I think that was Frank Wren’s thinking and when he decided to trade him, it’s clear that he was not interested in waiting to see if Jeff would ever come back around. The Braves will be fine without him, regardless of what he does or doesn’t do in the years to come.
chixluvthebraves2
August 13th, 2009
12:00 pm
In response to JS question about Frenchy, absolutely i will be happy if he continued at those numbers. (except when they play us!!). He was never going to be productive for us. He was so confused and seemingly pulled in 1000 directions. he has been embraced in NY, seems much more relaxed and enjoying himself again.
i was elated to see him go, every AB made me want to slam my head against the coffee table.
Church works the counts, rarely swings at bad pitches and seems to be on base all the time. He versatility in the OF is way better than JF, which is important, say now with Mcclouth hurt. if JF were here, Diaz would be our CF. seriously????? RC avg may not be the greatest but watching him have professional AB’s has been enjoyable to watch. JMHO.