Are you ready to give another five seasons to this man?
The Hawks are exploring contract talks with guard Joe Johnson, according to my long lost twin Sekou Smith, and theoretically an extension could be worth in excess of $75 million over five years (based on his current salary).
I have a question: Are you comfortable with this?
This isn’t meant to be a bang-on-Joe blog, although I get the feeling we’re headed in that direction in the comments section. Johnson has been an All-Star the last three seasons. He is a consistent 20-to-25 point guy on the court during the regular season and certainly not a problem off of it.
Overall, he’s an asset, not a headache. There. I said it.
But Johnson also has been less than impressive in the playoffs the last two seasons, and it’s worth asking — as we’ve asked before — whether he should be kept as the franchise centerpiece. I understand NBA champions are not one-man teams. But those who make $15 million a year should be a difference-maker when games count the most. Too often Johnson hasn’t been that. His point totals in the last post-season against Miami and Cleveland were 15, 16, 10, 14, 25, 13, 27, 11, 10, 21, 18.
The Hawks probably feel they need to make a decision on Johnson fairly quickly. He will be entering the last year of his contract at $14.9 million. The thinking is: If Johnson plays the season out, he could leave the Hawks as an unrestricted free agent.
My thought is: Let him play it out.
There’s no need to commit now. Let Johnson prove he’s the player he needs to be to earn that kind of money. If he doesn’t prove it next year, no other team is going to blow him away in negotiations any way. If he does prove it, then give him the world. And if he proves it and turns down the world from the Hawks, then obviously he never wanted to be here anyway.
Trade him? Maybe. But I’m not sure what the trade market is right now — after the draft and before training camp. I understand the argument of: You can’t let him leave as a free agent and get nothing in return. But the flip side is tying yourself financially to a player you might be uncertain of.
I credit Hawks general manager Rick Sund for getting all of the team’s players under contract this summer, quickly and efficiently. But this is one where I think he needs to take a step back.
89 comments Add your comment
Schultz stinhks
August 5th, 2009
3:02 pm
This blog has been extremely unimpressive.
Where’s Terence Mooron when you need him…
kirkinga
August 5th, 2009
3:12 pm
I think too many people have fallen for the ol’ “clearing cap space for….” trick! So easy to spend other people’s millions isn’t it?
While it is true that many teams are, and have, cleared space, it doesn’t necessarily follow that they are doing so in real anticipation of signing one of the premier free agents that might…might, become available in 2010.
I think astute basketball watchers understand that premier free agents rarely leave their current teams absent some acrimonious circumstances. The NBA is not MLB. The Knicks, or any other “big market team” are not going to sign 2, 3, 4 big names in one offseason.
This is a bad economy right now and many NBA owners are hurting and so they want to reduce payroll. It is wise to open negotiations with JJ right now, but if there isn’t agreement on value, then it’s best to know now and act accordingly. It takes two to agree to a contract, so we shouldn’t assume that it is the fault of the Hawks if JJ doesn’t sign before reaching the market.
And the idea that some people have that just because a player is very good, that you let him name his price, pay it, and then deal with the consequences, is bad business, no matter who the player might be. Always negotiate, signing a player out of fear leads to bad contracts….or have we all forgotten the lesson of John Koncak?
Dawgie Style
August 5th, 2009
3:17 pm
Who cares???????
The falcons,Dawgs,and termites are what we should be focusing on!!!! Its football season people!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2009/8/5/978303/the-curious-case-of-a-joe-johnson
August 5th, 2009
3:23 pm
“….Sekou Smith is reporting that the Hawks are in talks to extend Joe Johnson before he hits unrestricted free agency next summer. Jeff Schultz has immediately put out a cease and desist order on the whole thing saying…”
PD
August 5th, 2009
3:23 pm
Jeff, he is one of the best 1 on 1 shooting guards in the league because he can pass shoot and score in the paint. Until the Hawks can find someone comparable they would be stupid to him go now. What I do see happening next season depending how well Horford improves. Either Josh or Marvin gets traded if one of them levels off. Both of them would have the sizeable contract to swing for a big free agent via trade.
Overall, keep Joe. Yeah he was mediocre in the playoffs because of poorly managed minutes and injuries but it happens to the best of them. Plus he never made a single excuse about his game. Great player to have on your team.
Da Prez
August 5th, 2009
3:26 pm
First of all, although I know nothing of Joe Johnson or the Atlanta Hawks, I must point out that both Mr. Schultz and Daniel are acting stupidly.
However, in the interest of peace, goodwill, and my waning popularity, I would like to invite these two incredibly ignorant men to Washington, D.C. to enjoy a few adult beverages with Joe and I.
In the meantime, let’s maintain a level of respect and decorum in this public discourse, even though hate-mongers like Mr. Schultz and Daniel insist on contaminating cyberspace with their angry diatribes.
Thank you, and may Allah curse America!
What the ........?
August 5th, 2009
3:26 pm
Jeff you must eat your young too for being bad kids!!!!!!!!
andrew
August 5th, 2009
3:26 pm
Hawks gotta keep Joe, he has been running on fumes the last 2 years coming into the playoffs because he has been among the league leaders in minutes per game both years. Hopefully this year players like Crawford, J-Smith and Marvin can carry more of the load offensively so Joe can get some rest and be fresh for the playoffs.
What the ........?
August 5th, 2009
3:28 pm
Da Prez is crazy. You Cash for Clunker driving, Mini-Me Loving Marble Mouth fool
Dwayne
August 5th, 2009
3:32 pm
“And if he proves it and turns down the world from the Hawks, then obviously he never wanted to be here anyway.” Your article was fine until you started speculating, it is mere speculation to assume its obvious he never wanted to be here anyway, if the Hawks offer him the world. The “world” is a relative term, what if another team offers him a bigger world? Then the Hawks get nothing in return for taking that unnecessary risk, give him an extension while he is still under contract.
MIKE
August 5th, 2009
3:40 pm
I WOULD RESIGN JOE AND WOULD HAVE LET GO OF BIBBY REPLACED HIM WITH A BIG NAME PLAYER .. BUT FOR THE LIFE OF ME I DON’T KNOW WHO .. ANY THOUGHTS
Ben
August 5th, 2009
4:08 pm
Steve Smith was a boring player too and we traded him for Isiah Rider. How did that work out?
Are we going to win a championship w/ Joe – no. Are we going to make the playoffs without him – no
Best case scenario for the Hawks is for Teague to grow into a good starting point guard in 1-2 years and be done w/ Crawford’s then Bibby’s contract.
Keeping this core of 5 guys for the next 4-6 years will keep us in the playoffs.
PG – Teague
SG – Joe
SF – Marvin
PF – Josh
C – Al
Kelvin
August 5th, 2009
4:37 pm
Jeff, take Kobe and D Wade out of this and what other 2 guard is heads and shoulders above Joe? Vince Carter? Ben Gordon? Mayo? Ray Allen? Michael Redd? Turkoglu? Jason Terry? Andre Iguodala? I would take none of these very good players above Joe. Surely Joe is worth Brandon Roy type money, who probably is better than every guy on this list except Joe and that’s debatable. Sign him now.
Chea
August 5th, 2009
4:51 pm
Wow Jeff you’ve been bloggin’ like a champ. Keep it up.
Even if Joe doesn’t live up to 15 mill per, we aren’t going to get someone else who will. Essentially, this team’s hopes are tied to whether or not JJ does live up to his contract. We can live with that; a no-superstars-needed, Pistons-like concept. JJ does need to be as assertive as Chauncey was for that team though.
Now, going past 15 mill per for JJ would be ridiculous. 5 years 75 mill sounds about right. Putting him through a contract year could engender resentment, and he’s got to be a part of this team.
Unless CP3 is on the market…
ajw
August 5th, 2009
5:06 pm
*ChuckHinson* I’ll take Dwight Howard, Chris Paul and Deron Williams over JJ.
Andy R
August 5th, 2009
5:31 pm
Jeff is spot on regarding Joe. He’s a “nice” regular season player. He isn’t a closer. He isn’t a go to guy and he wants no part of being a leader. It just isn’t in his DNA. I would rather the Hawks move on after next Summer, and build pieces around Horford and Josh Smith. Horford was more of a vocal leader in his 2nd season than Joe Johnon ever was. I understand some guys lead by actions, not words….well, Joe doesn’t really lead by actions either. He’s a #2 guy on a team. That’s his lot in life. Not a bad one to have, all things considered. Bottom line, he doesn’t deserve to be paid “#1 option” type of money again.
Hoops
August 5th, 2009
5:53 pm
JJ is a very high quality player in the NBA. He has helped the Hawks turn our program around. I also see the side that you don’t want to over pay for him because it hurts you with improving the team because of available cap space. I guess I would set a limit of 15M per and see if Joe would sign for that. If not, then I would wait until next summer and try to sign him when the cap space is lower for all teams. I don’t think he will get more than 15M per in this economy.
We must do everything we can, within reason, to keep Joe Johnson!
James
August 5th, 2009
5:59 pm
Well said Jeff.He’s not a difference maker mainly in the play offs.Let him play it out and see what happens.The Hawks can get to the second round of the play offs and loose with out him..
cdog
August 5th, 2009
7:46 pm
OH WELL, HOW MANY TIMES AM I GOING TO SAY IT? RICK SUND IS IN CHARGE SO NOTHING POSITIVE WILL GET DONE. WHEN ITS OVER, THE HAWKS WILL TAKE SEVERAL STEPS BACK. RIGHT NOW THE HAWKS IS NOT BETTER THAN THE PORTLAND TRAILBRAZERS EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE IN THE WEST ALSO I BELIEVE THEY ARE NOT BETTER THAN THE BULLS, NETS AND PISTONS THANKS TO SUND. IF HE MESSES AROUND AND DON’T SIGN A CENTER WHO CAN MAN THE MIDDLE IT WILL BE A LONG SEASON SIGNING JOE JOHNSON OR NOT. WE NEED A GM WHO IS COMMITED TO WINNING AND WILL DO ANYTHING NECCESSARY TO WIN LIKE DANNY AINGE
Hawksgirl
August 5th, 2009
8:09 pm
Sign jj! Dont look stupid come 2010 sund! He is the floor general whether the haters on this blog like it or not. He may not be the leader that kobe and lebron are but he is a leader in his own way. JJ has had to prove himself since he first got here when he barely had anyone to work with except mostly rookies. I would say he has proven himself a long time ago. Having a bad postseason is part of that. Every player has had bad games their not proud of. Stop acting like he is not the player we have known and just sign him!
mrHonline
August 5th, 2009
8:28 pm
Jeff,
One thing you’re not really factoring into this discussion is that the CBA will make it extremely difficult for the Hawks to sign anyone OTHER THAN Joe Johnson.
If they let him go elsewhere, they’re already so close to the projected salary cap for next season that they will only have the Mid-Level Exception to sign a free agent. If you take a look at the kinds of free agents that have been given the MLE over the past few years, this fact should give you the shivers.
You will say, “The Hawks should let Joe go and trade for a more legitimate star.” Put that thought to rest. The only players on the team who make enough money to bring in a star are already vital members of the rotation – (Marvin), Smith, and Crawford. What’s more, none of those three players are good enough to solicite trade offers involved players of Joe’s caliber.
The Hawks must sign Joe to an extension. Trade him later if you feel the need to rebuild (see Carter, Vince or Allen, Ray), but the argument against signing him to an extension is DOA.
The Truth
August 5th, 2009
8:54 pm
I’m going to be more neutral on this one and just asked a question; if not Joe, then who? What star player that is available that could take Joe’s place and wants to play in the ATL? If we are currently struggling to find a backup PF player to come join the Hawks, how in the world could we convince a “real superstar” to fill Joe’s shoe as an upgrade? The assumption is, after the likes of Wade, Bosh, etc are off the table; Joe will be the constellation prize. So, if we lose the constellation prize, we will be left without a star player. Let’s stop dreaming; real superstars are usually not acquired via FA, they usually drafted. So, unless we fall back into hard-times, we will not see the top lottery for some time as it appears that we are keeping our core team together. In such case, acquiring the next superstar via the draft might be beyond our reach.
It’s seems, the only way this could be a bad deal is that we pay too much for Joe’s services. Clearly for the right price and the right supporting cast, this could be a viable option.
butterbean
August 5th, 2009
10:39 pm
Big Ray is queer.
rusty
August 5th, 2009
11:07 pm
we need to sign& trade joe.the reason every one doubles & trible teams him is because they know he wants to shoot& will
not give the ball up .woody & joe have created the iso joe offense. joe does not
like to run & does not like to drive to the basket hard but dribbles & dribbles until he is doubled team. he is what is wrong with our offense, i hate to see this team that hasnt any kind of ball movement (*worst in the nba) he scores 20,so what, he stinks in the clutch. with crawford with we dont need him. the
hawks with be much better off getting a big man & start to play a better half court offense & start running the ball.
we might have a chance to compete for a championship but would it be possible with the woodpecker here
niremetal
August 5th, 2009
11:15 pm
AJC shouldn’t rush to renew the contracts of Bradley or Schultz.
niremetal
August 6th, 2009
1:22 am
PS – I love how when I saw the title of this article, I already knew what it would say – “JJ isn’t a franchise player and he sucked in the playoffs.” I also knew what it would omit – that JJ was playing hurt in the playoffs this year, and that he played pretty damned well in the playoffs last year against the NBA’s best defense. Oh, and the fact that JJ is the only player on the team who commands a double team.
Predictability and narrow-mindedness is bound to happen when you only tune into the Hawks after the regular season is over.
As I said – AJC shouldn’t rush to re-sign Bradley or Schultz. Not until they start watching the damned games before they write about the Hawks.
cdog
August 6th, 2009
2:23 am
JEFF, WHY DO YOU AND OTHERS ALWAYS SAYING THAT PLAYERS DON’T WANT TO PLAY IN ATLANTA? THATS NOT TRUE. ANY PLAYER WOULD COME TO PLAY IN ATLANTA IF THE MONEY WAS RIGHT. WHO WILL GO TO ANY CITY AND PLAY WHERE THEY ARE NOT PAID? ATLANTA HAS A REPUTATION FOR NOT WANT TO PAY MONEY FOR CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYERS. NOTHING IS WRONG WITH ATLANTA THAT ISN’T WRONG WITH ANY OTHER CITY. WHEN YOU HAVE GMS LIKE WE HAVE AND HAS HAD(SUND AND PETE BABCOCK), YOU CAN’T BLAME A SHAQ OR KOBE FOR NOT WANTING TO COME PLAY IN ATLANTA FOR PEANUTS.RICK SUND IS A POOR EXCUSE FOR A GM. LOOK AT HIM NOW NOT BEING ABLE TO SIGN ANY PLAYER NEEDED FOR A CHAMPIONSHIP. IF YOU DON’Y PAY YOU GET NOTHING. HE HAS NO PLAN OR STRATEGY. HE IS SIMPLY TERRIBLE.IT’S NOT ATLANTA, IT’S RICK SUND THAT DON’T WANT TO PAY OUT MONEY FOR GOOD PLAYERS
vava74
August 6th, 2009
7:14 am
Joe Johnson was playing against many many obstacles in the Playoffs:
He was carrying the ball up court doing the PG job (that is the way Woody’s system is outlined);
He was being TRIPLE TEAMED;
He was not getting the refs respect and was constantly fouled and getting no calls;
He had a bad ankle since mid season and then in the Cleveland series he spained an ankle again;
He was playing without Marvin and with Al injured as well;
He was playing after 4 consecutive seasons with a tremendous workload (minutes, responsibility, …)
Yes, he is no Kobe, but no of our other guys were – at least until this stage – good enough to open up the floor for JJ to perform at a higher level and to have more space to penetrate (people wonder why he settles for jumpers instead of penetrating more as he did back in Phoenix… well, try to penetrate when you are being triple teamed and your legs are tired!!!
Woody also has to improve his playbook to include more ball movement and JJ shooting off picks and not only on ISO situation.
vava74
August 6th, 2009
9:02 am
Niremetal, I’am with you. Bradley and Schultz just write to fulfil their obligation and collect a pay check. They don’t know what they are talking about.
The Truth, I am with you, however, I would like to state clearly that I consider JJ to be overall a much better player than Bosh who is highly overrated. Yes he can score and his rebounding is acceptable, but he is hardly a force inside and his track record “carrying” Toronto is by far less respectable than JJ’s with Atlanta.
I think people around here should start reading Charley Rosen from Msn.FoxSports.com in order to know what BBall is actually about beyond mere stats.
He sometimes over does it with his commentaries but most of the time is right on the money, including his opinion on JJ (considers him to be a top top player) and J-Smoove (considers him to be talented but mentally unable to fulfil his potential).
Where I found him to fail is on his analysis of Bibby since he overlooks the intangibles he brings to the court. Obviously Bibby is a liability in defense and his removal from the starting line up is warranted before we can consider the Hawks an elite team, however, he was essential in our progress and has fulfiled his role on the evolution of the Hawks.
Without him, we would not be in the position we are: complaining about a sweep against the Cavs when we had 3 starters severely injured!!!
True Hawks Fan
August 6th, 2009
11:14 am
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/231157-inside-the-mind-of-atlanta-hawks-all-star-guard-joe-johnson
Jay
August 6th, 2009
1:07 pm
Jeff,
The answer to your question: Are you comfortable with giving Joe Johnson a contract extension of five years and $75 million or more? is yes; especially since it is not my money. But seriously, here’s why I’m OK with it.
I think we can all agree that Johnson is an All-Star caliber guard. Look at the salaries of the other NBA All-Star caliber guards and then tell me if Johnson doesn’t deserve to make $15M per year.
Michael Redd–$17M
Kobe Bryant–$23M
Ray Allen–$18.7M
Tracy McGrady–$22M
Dwayne Wade–$15.7M
Allen Iverson–TBD but over $20M last season
Vince Carter–$16.1M
I won’t get into a subjective argument about who is better than whom. Suffice it to say that it seems that the going rate for an All-Star guard is at least $15M.
Johnson came here as a free agent when no one else would and the recent success of this team has been built largely on his shoulders. Without question, he is the heart and soul of the team and no team has ever fared beter when they’ve allowed the player who embodies their heart and soul to leave.
I think a better question should be this: If the Hawks are not going to make any more moves to improve the team, why should Joe Johnson accept a contract extension? Think of the interest he would generate from championship contending teams next year as an unrestricted free agent? Don’t you think Cleveland would love to partner him with Shaq and LeBron? Or how about San Antonio where he could play along side of Duncan, Jefferson and Parker with Ginobili coming off the bench to keep his minutes down? Even a team like Boston would give strong consideration to signing him as the replacement for Ray Allen; who’ll be 35 years old when his contract expires at the end of the next season. While Orlando, Portland and the Lakers may not have a need for his services, teams like Denver, Dallas, Utah, Houston (to replace McGrady), Miami (especially if they lose our on re-signing DWade) and New Orleans (and he always wanted to play with CP3) ,as well as playoff-fringe teams like Washington, Toronto and even Phoenix, would all be in the hunt for Johnson’s services.
So, should the Hawks sign Joe Johnson to a contract extension? Yes, if possible. Should Joe Johnson re-sign with the Hawks, knowing the demand that will exist for his services despite a reduction in the salary cap? Hmmmmm…..
slim
August 6th, 2009
1:32 pm
bottom line the hawks and joe need a team for them to be succussfull, The Core can compete with any starting five in the league, it’s the bench that’s lacking, and please get off joe he’s the best thing to happen to Atlanta since the Nique trade, and I might add the only star atlanta was able to build around. So please stay off joe, who else’s averages 20-25 pts and your getting doubled and maybe triple every night.
ClipperBlog.com Blog for the Los Angeles NBA Clippers Fans » Blog Archive » Thursday Links
August 6th, 2009
7:52 pm
[...] Is Atlanta going to let Joe Johnson hit free agency next year? Once the Clippers re-cleared cap space for the 2010 offseason, Joe Johnson’s name became quite popular around these parts. If Johnson doesn’t agree to an extension, the Clippers could be a real player for his services next summer. Of course, a lot will change between now and then, but the idea of pairing the versatile Johnson with the Clippers young core is an extremely enticing one. [...]
David Smith
August 6th, 2009
10:18 pm
Joe really disappointed me with his play in the playoffs last season (Especially when he publically told reporters that he was “tired”). I still think he is a top flight player however and, would rather we sign him now than having another team put their hat in the ring and sign him. Woodson has no excuse now with the recent signings of Jamal Crawford (and hopefully Joe Smith) and the resignings of Bibby, Marvin, and Za Za to limit his minutes so he can be rested in time for the playoffs. This is going to be a exciting season for us with the rest of the country seeing us on tv seven times this year (TNT should be ashamed of themselves for only airing us one game this season but, it’s a start.).
Stotts Era
August 6th, 2009
11:02 pm
nice old school pic with t-lue and salim on the bench
Schedule released, Orlando on Thanksgiving « Stotts Era
August 6th, 2009
11:07 pm
[...] too lazy to truly finish this post, but check out Jeff Schultz blog on the topic of signing Joe to an extension. I don’t know how much I like Joe, but the fact that this is even a rumor gives me [...]
Michael W
August 9th, 2009
7:15 pm
You have made the misconception in your article that Joe Johnson should be THE MAN ie; McGrady, Norwizki. I guarantee when 2010 come around Joe Johnson will be picked up way before a Norwizki or McGrady if available by any GM that Know’s their stuff. J.J. is the “Ultimate GLUE GUY”. You can take that to the bank. If Hawks dont resign him their thru. They will play like 5 individuals. He wasn’t signed to be THE MAN. He was signed to make everyone else “A TEAM” Now what price are you going to put on that. I consider him a Battier on steroids. Think about that…………….
Johnson needs to be elite before he gets an elite contract | Jeff Schultz
September 30th, 2009
9:42 am
[...] I’ve banged this drum before but it seems like a good time to repeat it. Johnson is a very good player. But he’s not a difference maker. Difference-makers stand out in the playoffs. Johnson generally hasn’t done that. Now, if you want to put that on the team around him or the head coach (Mike Woodson) for not placing him in better situations, that’s fine. But by and large, Johnson has not taken games over like stars are supposed to do. I put that on him. [...]
Joe Johnson Turns Down Extension « nbaroundtable
October 3rd, 2009
11:59 pm
[...] a team’s leading scorer makes such a declaration, it’s a cause for concern. Not in this case. I’ve banged this drum before but it seems like a good time to repeat it. Johnson is a very good player. But he’s not a difference maker. [...]