Message heard: Welcome to the 2010 season
See this flag? It's not that the Braves don't want another one. It's just not Frank Wren's highest priority right now. (AJC photo)
Two years ago at this time, when the Braves were coming off a non-playoff season and so many of us believed it had to be some aberration, the team’s front office had a similar delusion.
“We thought, ‘This is our opportunity. We have the assets to get arguably the best offensive player in the game — let’s make it happen, let’s go for it,” Frank Wren recalled of the Mark Teixeira trade. “Obviously, things didn’t work out.”
The ripple effects of that deal — five prospects for a star first baseman who led them to third- and fourth-place finishes — were still being felt Friday.
This was Wren’s second trade deadline as general manager since taking over for John Schuerholz (who pushed the button on the Teixeira deal). At no time has he been tempted to repeat an all-or-nothing deal.
He showed it by his actions this week. He confirmed it with his words.
Wren hasn’t given up on 2009. But 2010 ranks as a higher priority.
Whether you agree with that position, just don’t expect the message to come through during ticket commercials.
“There are times when you say, ‘We’re going all in,” Wren said. “This isn’t one of those times. We’re not at that point right now.”
Casey Kotchman for Adam LaRoche. It’s the trade that didn’t move mountains. It may or may not move the Braves in the standings.
In short, the Braves reacquired LaRoche more for his past than his present. He has a little more power than Kotchman and a history of getting hot in the second half. That’s nice, but it doesn’t mean he’s a better player today. Fact is, right now he’s not. He has more home runs (13-6) than Kotchman, but he’s hitting a career-low .248, which is 34 points less than Kotchman (.282). (In the past 22 games, Kotchman also was hitting .333 with four homers, 13 RBI and a .528 slugging percentage). Defensively, they’re a push.
If you reacted to this trade with a shrug, Wren understands. It’s a little roll of the dice.
“We’re banking on what [LaRoche] has done before,” he said. “We’ve got to find power where we can get it because we don’t have that stereotypical home-run hitter.”
The 2009 playoff hopes are not dead. They’re just kind of caught in traffic, and October may start without them. It’s a seven-team wild-card, pileup, and these things are impossible to predict.
This is when it’s difficult to be a general manager. The competitive side of you says, “Do something. Win now.” The other side says, “Sit on your hands. Be patient.”
Two weeks ago, Chipper Jones said that while it was clear the front office had made improvements to the roster, “we’ve got our eyes toward next year and the year after, and whatever comes this year is gravy.”
Wren has never hid from that perception.
“I think we’ve been pretty clear about that, even going back to spring training: We think our best days are ahead,” he said. “The level of talent we have in the minor-league system and [the talent] we have that’s getting close, is going to improve our club. Whether it’s in 2010 or 2011, we think we’re going to be better. To that end, those players that we’ve identified who are part of that improvement process, we’re not going to trade — even if it’s to improve this year and make us a few games better.”
They demoted the rookie center fielder, Jordan Schafer, because he showed he wasn’t ready. They traded the right fielder, Jeff Francoeur, because they didn’t think he ever would recover, and they weren’t about to give him a raise after the season. Martin Prado for Kelly Johnson — that was just manna from heaven.
But those changes were about trying to salvage the season, not elevating it to something special.
They tried that two years ago. Didn’t work.
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191 comments Add your comment
Really?
August 1st, 2009
12:02 pm
The Braves should leave Atlanta because these post are the dumbest I’ve read. Anybody notice Smoltz’s numbers. KK is much better. Would you rather have Glavine or Hanson? Wren took Hanson. The Braves’ power numbers at 1st are the worst in the NL. By the way they were 18 games under 500 last year. An 18 game improvement would be significant even if they don’t make the playoffs. This organization should move to a city that appreciates the sports they have unlike Atlanta.
coach k
August 1st, 2009
12:05 pm
why don’t we buy out Joe Torres contract for 2010 and lets just see what he can get out of the same dang players, because coming out of spring I thought this team with it’s talent had enough to contend.
Shady Kraft
August 1st, 2009
12:07 pm
Wren has had a great year. Our pitching is solid. The Kotchman trade is weird to me thoug because hes smacking the ball right now. We can only hope LaRoche heats up. I still watch. I do the 90’s when we get like one run and have a good chance of winning the game. What about Chipper to first, Prado to third, get rid of Kelly and put Brooks Conrad at 2nd? He did a great job while he was up.
Jeff
August 1st, 2009
12:19 pm
????????????
This just seems like a trade being made by an organization without a plan. Throw something at the wall and maybe it will stick.
The nucleus of this team needs to be broken up. Something just isn’t working for this group of Braves, specifically the hitters.
This team is now going on their fourth straight year without making the playoffs. In those 3 1/2+ years, the Braves are 15 games under .500 despite being +121 in run differential for the same period.
The Braves were -25 in run differential for the ENTIRE YEAR last year and finished 18 games UNDER .500. They are +25 in run differential for 103 GAMES this year and are just 1 game OVER .500.
This team is under-performing and has been for 3 1/2 years now. Something has to change. I don’t know if the change needs to be Bobby Cox, or Terry Pendleton, or jettisoning players that have been here for that entire period, such as Kelly Johnson. I don’t know, but I don’t get paid millions of dollars to know. However, any casual fan that has watched the 2006-2009 Braves can see that something is simply off with these teams.
Any knucklehead (such as myself) can go and check the Braves’ record and measure it against their expected record based on statistical analysis. Here’s a brief summary:
Actual W-L Pythagorean W-L Differential
2006: 79-83 85-77 -6
2007: 84-78 88-74 -4
2008: 72-90 79-83 -7
2009: 52-51 54-49 -2
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2008.shtml
This team is now under-performing their expectations for the FOURTH CONSECUTIVE YEAR! You know how many other major league baseball teams have underperformed their expectations for 4 consecutive years? Zero. That can’t be a statistical aberration (well, it could be, but the odds would be incredibly long).
abudefdef
August 1st, 2009
12:37 pm
Always Next Year — Braves are 7-2 vs Phillies this year…and they can’t beat them?
coach k
August 1st, 2009
12:37 pm
Ditto Tim I am 53 and am tired of this movie, we can’t get a team we just continue to fill slots, no passion, no chemistry, it sure was fun between 90-95 but since this mangement team has lost what it really take to win and that is small ball and guts, we have none.
BravesAreDone
August 1st, 2009
12:40 pm
Jeff can I get a certificate in the mail also please???
Jeff
August 1st, 2009
12:48 pm
Not only does this trade not make sense, but the general direction of this team makes no sense. This is the seeming epitome of a ‘throw something at the wall and hope it sticks’ move.
I don’t know what the answer is for this team, but then again, I don’t get paid money to know the answers. However, I do know a few things that are irrefutable.
First, since last making the playoffs, the Braves’ have played just over 3 1/2 years of baseball. During this time they have a run differential of +121. During the same time they are 15 games under .500.
Second, in each of the 4 years since making the playoffs, the Braves have underperformed their expected outcome based on a statistical analysis. Example–in 2006 the Braves went 79-83. Their Pythagorean W-L, based on run differential, was 85-77. In 2007, the Braves went 84-78. Their Pythagorean W-L was 88-74. In 2008, the Braves went 72-90. Their Pythagorean W-L was 79-83. This year? You guessed it–actual record 52-51 . . . expected record 54-49.
Do you know how many other teams have underperformed their expected record for four consecutive years? You guessed it–ONE!
Third, Bobby Cox has presided over Braves’ teams that have won less games then they should have, based on these statistical models, for four consecutive years, which is, frankly, unprecedented.
Something major needs to change for this franchise, rather then the shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic that seems to be the current course. Hey Braves’ front office: “Iceberg, straight ahead!”
abudefdef
August 1st, 2009
12:49 pm
EJ, I like the post, but as a loyal braves fan, i hope they never leave! Problem is there are too many fair weather fans and too many people who moved from New York and Boston and Chicago that kept those allegiances…Atlanta is too big of a meltingpot to fully support the team…unless we end up in another “Worst to First” season a la 1991
abudefdef
August 1st, 2009
12:50 pm
I have the perfect two word solution:
TED TURNER!
andrewknight
August 1st, 2009
1:00 pm
subsequent to my earlier post, and, after a good long sleep, I am more incensed regarding the recent trade–I harken back to Adam’s first tour here and best characterize my impression of him as aloof and uninspiring–yes he had a good swing but always struck me as a rather daft lad…could be wrong…but again….it appears Wren is approaching a sand dune without AWD.
abudefdef
August 1st, 2009
1:13 pm
I shal reserve my opinion of Adam LaRoche until he has been in the dugout for a few games…perhaps he has matured in Pittsburgh, where he had what kind of lineup around him? Now he is in Atlanta, where he’ll see some better pitches, and may surprise all the naysayers on these boards! I wish him and Kotchman the best.
On another note: Wren’s decision not to bring back Smoltz—looks good at the moment, Hanson over Glavine—looks good at the moment
Kelly johnson back and we done
August 1st, 2009
1:47 pm
Well since Bobby cox put KJ loser back team is gone down….2-5 since her retirn we gone n Wren n cox should be hung instead of the braves 95 world series championship….but where there chokin world series flag from 91 92 96 99….lets also not forget there Natl league chokin flags in 1993 and 1997 and 1999 and 2001 .they need be hung over the urninals at the ted also
Kevin
August 1st, 2009
1:49 pm
Now for good news frenchyis hittin better bad news if bobby cox brings back TP its wait till 2014 now………time for action fire both Bobby cox n TP after season n hire Ed Yost as are new mananger for 2010…
johnr
August 1st, 2009
2:03 pm
Went to the game of Friday and it was clear that the Braves are dead in the water. I have always been a Bobby Cox fan until last night when he started kelly johnson instead of Prado. I realize now that it is time for Bobby to go.
Scott B
August 1st, 2009
2:12 pm
I keep reading comments that Cox should be fired. For anyone to think that he should get canned, well, they truly don’t know a thing about baseball. My gosh, he’s going to be gone soon enough because of his age, but I am not looking forward to that day. If you ask the players, I’m sure they would say, to a man, that they would run through a wall for the guy. When he does leave, it will be because he is retiring. Some of you people are just out of touch with reality.
abudefdef
August 1st, 2009
2:23 pm
Amen Scott B…preach on! Long live Bobby!
bye, bye, miss american pie
August 1st, 2009
2:31 pm
Ok, Braves need to start taking steriods. period by the time MLB finds out, maybe we will have a world series ring. so, bfd, we have a 50 game suspension next year…..
htownbravesfan
August 1st, 2009
2:45 pm
How Kelly Johnson and Greg Norton continue to be on this roster and Conrad is now back in the minors is the biggest mystery since Jimmy Hoffa’s burial site.
Coach Stevie
August 1st, 2009
3:08 pm
This trade only makes sense in the fact that Wren makes this move looking forward to the future by opening up first base for Freeman come next year. He is figuring that if LaRoche has his typical second half of the season in which he heats up then short term the Braves get some additional power creating a wash for this season or maybe even a slight improvement.
The problem I see with this is that he is making a pretty big gamble on Freeman being ready to contribute at the Major League level next year. Jeff how likely do you feel that is and if he is not ready, who would be our one year gap player?
I believe we would have been better off standing pat knowing that if Freeman shows that he is ready next year, then we could trade Kotchman for prospects or a bullpen piece for the stretch run.
DamYankee
August 1st, 2009
3:21 pm
Rob @7:42 – SHULTZ=MOORE Which Moore is that? Surely you don’t mean the one who wrote a quarterly screed about how MLB hates African-American players. Or cried the blues about how David Justice got dissed in ATL (according to David losing was the fans fault). Or characterized himself as a genius (as in “the Braves/Falcons/Hawks resident geniuses blah blah blah I could do better”). The only good thing about the Urinal-Constipation’s recent attempts to become “McPaper” was losing T. Moore.
James
August 1st, 2009
3:21 pm
FIRE BOBBY COX
DamYankee
August 1st, 2009
3:33 pm
Yo, Reid in EAV: I concur, if you look around the field in almost any MLB park you’ll see plenty of black faces, I guess if your’e not straight outta Compton you don’t qualify as black. And to the poster above who fondly remembers A. Jones’ hitting, I guess Frenchy went to the same hitting clinic. “If it moves, take a hack, especially if it bounces in front of the plate”. It ain’t cricket fahchrissakes!
phily fanatic
August 1st, 2009
3:40 pm
up here in phily land we get lee you get an olb brave who can not run just another turtle or snail. did you braves fans stay up late and watch lee pitch what a game. lets face you guys down their in atlanta are small market you need to have a fire sale like pittsborgh did and cut your losses. you might be in the post season in the year 2020 or not.
mississippi brave
August 1st, 2009
3:40 pm
Just checked the lineup for today’s game. Please is there anyone besides McClouth who can leadoff.
phily fanatic
August 1st, 2009
3:49 pm
sorry for the typos i am laughing so hard i can not type bring up conrad get rid of johnson get rid of norton fire cox yes do it. your team is done all of those ass nine moves are not going to help 1 iota.
phily fanatic
August 1st, 2009
3:52 pm
sorry for typos i am laughing so hard i can not type. bring up conrad dfa johnson and norton. fire cox it is not going to help 1 iota. hee hee hee
gary
August 1st, 2009
3:52 pm
Since Bobby Cox gets so much credit for all those 5-team divisional championships, then he should get to shoulder much of the credit for the Braves last few non-championship seasons. If you say the current skid is “because of whatever lack of talent”, then you need to remember the boatload of talent those championships teams had. Bobby is indeed good at keeping everyone happy around the campfire, but is he good at firing up the team or adapting his game to what his players can do or the situation at hand? Perhaps his only having one World Series victory out of all those post seasons answers that one.
chc4
August 1st, 2009
3:55 pm
Whoever said Salty would be an All Star 1B for the Braves had we kept him is delusional. The guy has been a huge disappointment in Texas.
Hillbilly Deluxe
August 1st, 2009
8:16 pm
Looked to me like Nate McLouth had a pretty good day in the leadoff spot.
LaRoche trade is about 2010? | umpbump.com
August 1st, 2009
8:38 pm
[...] the AJC’s Jeff Schultz tells us that the Braves sole trade dealine move — a straight-up swap of 1B Casey Kotchman for 1B Adam [...]
Wish we had more PROSPECTS
August 2nd, 2009
5:00 am
Teixeira deal, “worst deal in MLB history”:
ab avg hr rbi obp slg
SS Andrus 280 .264 4 19 .319 .364
SS Escobar 331 .305 11 58 .370 .471
*Obviously Andrus is 6 years younger, but Yunel would have blocked up SS to where Andrus most likely wouldn’t have been used. although Andrus has lightning speed, Prado is still the better choice at 2nd right now.
ab avg hr rbi obp slg
C Salty 262 .240 8 32 .291 .374
C McCann 296 .301 12 52 .373 .520
*Where would Salty go, first base? no upgrade whatsoever, not even at first right now.
2009 (career) era (career)
SP Harrison 4-5 (13-8) 6.11 (5.76)
SP Feliz (AAA) 4-6 3.49 30BB/75SO
RP Jones (AA) 2-4 5.60 24BB/41SO 35.1IP/42H .284OppAvg
We may miss Feliz, but Harrison, the top prospect, has been oft-injured and has not lived up to the hype. he certainly wouldn’t crack our starting rotation at this point.
RP Mahay (2007) 67ip 37bb/55so 2.55era
not much more than just a decent LH RP we never resigned.
Now, Tex last 3 seasons:
ab avg hr rbi obp slg
2007 494 .306 30 105 .400 .563
2008 574 .308 33 121 .410 .552
2009 392 .281 26 75 .377 .571
Holy crap. If the braves could have paid a king’s ransom for Tex, there is no way this deal is a loss to us. You people on here overvalue prospects. That is all they are until they prove themselves in the MLB. and so far the only one that has proven himself to the Rangers has been Andrus (which wouldn’t start at SS for us anyway). Harrison has done nothing and Salty is doing very little. The others are having decent seasons at AA and AAA right now. So tell me, how was the Teixeira deal so bad (other than braves not being able to sign him to a long term deal)?
Rufus
August 4th, 2009
12:29 pm
It’s useless, and sad to see a team look so tired, and which beyond the 6th inning they’re out of the game, they look burn out, mostly Chipper and Anderson, really whole team, just not as bad, as the these two senior. Even McCann isn’t doing a very good job batting or behind the plate, Diaz is striking out too many time, he has taken over for Johnson in that category.
From this side of the ball park, there is no cure for the Braves, this year or next, and as for the future, well ?
With Cox repeating the same mistake over and over again, it’s useless to try to find any hope for the Braves.
Old Chipper said they have the player to win, and I say maybe, but not without another the manager, hitting coach, or general manager, outside of that, and throw in two or three quality, players, they might have a change.
DMac
August 4th, 2009
4:14 pm
The Cox supporters are the ones out of touch with reality. That guy has lost more games in October than I want to remember. He’d also rather start a .225 hitting veteran than a .325 hitting kid. Any real owner would have fired him years ago, but that’s the problem with this club. They don’t have a real owner. They are owned by a corporation that could not care less about winning. They simply want a tax write-off. Until the team gets a real owner, they will continue to flail about in mediocrity.
rick in jerusalem
August 5th, 2009
3:12 am
Trade Chipper? To who?
Word gets around when them fastballs are strikes instead of doubles and homers. Chipper used to wait for his pitch–now he looks like he’s going up there thinking walk first. Things are getting back to the preBonds normal career trajectory, and 37 year olds no longer hit fastballs like they did when they were thirty (See Ordonez and Helton power numbers among others)
As far as Kotchman goes, good riddance. First base is a power position and if you dont hit homers you need to hit hit 320, not 280. LaRoche will hit like he always does when he quits thinkin and starts counting down to deer season. CK has found his ideal role–late inning defensive replacement for a guy who can actually hit like a first baseman
Now to get rid of that other “professional hitter” who cant wait to cash that last check and move on. Maybe they’d OK putting one of those little concrete statues in left field with a glove on it’s hand. At least we’d be saved the embarrassment of seeing an OF WALK to pick up a ball after failing to back up a grounder in the hole
Some guy named Keith Law rates the Braves farm system #3 in the majors. Heyward, Freeman and…Diory Hernandez?????? Look at the farm stats. A Miss pitcher–Cofield I think–started the AllStar game. Whopeee he’s got more walks than Ks and not a lot of either. Hicks cant hit AA, Schafer apparently cant play at all, and Norton is the only thing saving Diory from being the worst hitter in the majors. Dont say Canizares. He has never drawn a walk that wasnt intentional and cant play D like Frenchy. Plus he’s fat
Tim Hudson ought to be back in time to finish wasting Kris Medlens age 23 season
I dont care much about football. Id take up hunting but I doubt that chain–smoking is a plus when stalking deer
mike w
August 6th, 2009
10:09 am
as a long time braves fan im ashamed of how people complain about everything. wren can do nothing right according to some on this site. cant we just support our team instead of always finding something to complain about. this is our team, theirs some cities without a team. were lucky in the sense we have a team. a great team. the real (americas team).
fieldofdreams
August 7th, 2009
11:47 am
Ethier ends every hope. Stick a fork in ‘em, they’re officially done. We wasted a lot of great pitching on Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francouer, Jordan Schaefer, and Kenshin Kawakami. No speed, no power. No playoffs.
GaCracker
August 7th, 2009
5:09 pm
What will it take to get Joe Torre as our manager and retire Bobby – or let the Nationals have him? He is a “formuala” manajor”. Why doesn’t he allow each relief pitcher to remain until he is tired or ineffective. Why must he always play “setup” and “closer”? If Soriano didn’t have good stuff, why didn’t he tell Bobby and get his ass out of the game?
abudefdef
August 9th, 2009
5:30 am
hey philly fanatic…how about that 7.5 game lead over the Braves dropping to 5.5 games…over the past 2 days?
Looking forward to this upcoming weekend in Atlanta…Phillies bettter be careful or that series may drop them OUT of 1st in the NL East…Fish and Bravos are closing the gap!
KEEP THE FAITH BRAVES NATION!
Keep the faith
****WHOOOOOOOOAAAAAAOOOO WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAOOOOOO****
***TOMAHAWK-A-CHOPPIN***
abudefdef
August 9th, 2009
5:32 am
Oh yeah, and KJ sis batting .348 over his last 10 games, with 2 Dbls, 1 Trpl, 3 HRs, 8 RBIs…and Kawakami pitched well, 4 hits over 7 inn against a VERY good lineup…BRING IT ON PHILLY!
AlabamaBrave
August 9th, 2009
2:43 pm
abudefdef
August 1st, 2009
10:07 am
All you Chipper Bashers—who is a better switch hitter in MLB history?
Mickey Mantle