Braves’ problem is they can’t afford even one bad week
This is umpire Bill Hohn, who doesn't seem to like Bobby Cox much (he ejected him again Wednesday) and doesn't care that the Braves have slipped in the wild-card race. (AP photo)
This is what happens when you dig a hole in June.
Over the last the seven days, the Braves have two wins, four losses and an off day. That doesn’t qualify as a major slide. But the results illustrate how difficult of a position they’ve put themselves in. Philadelphia has blown open an eight-game lead in the National League East. The Phillies also just added Cy Young winner Cliff Lee to the starting rotation in a trade with Cleveland.
I guess getting a Cy Young winner instead of Roy Halladay qualifies as a consolation prize. Folks, that ship has sailed.
The wild-card race is almost as daunting. The Braves are only four games back of wild-card leader San Francisco. That wouldn’t be a big problem if the Giants were in first and the Braves were in second. But it’s not that simple.
Before losing four of their last six — including the first two games of a series to Florida, one of the teams they’re chasing — the Braves were tied for third, three games back of then-leader Colorado. Now in dropping four games back of San Francisco, which in itself is no big deal, they’re tied for fifth (and sixth) place. Milwaukee is only a game behind them in seventh.
Actually, the Braves are closer in the wild-card standings to the eighth-place Mets (two games) than they are the Giants (four). We all thought the Mets were dead. So where does that put the Braves?
That’s the difficult thing about wild-card races — it’s often not the number of games behind in the standings that matters as much as the number of teams you’re battling. You can’t expect/project/hope every other team loses because they’re all playing each others. There’s no exact formula. But in a sense, a four-game deficit in a six-to-eight team pack seems almost as bad as an eight-game deficit in second place.
What this all means now is what it meant before: The Braves have to do something very unlikely to make the playoffs. They need to sweep some series. They also can’t afford to lose any ground — and actually need to gain — despite an upcoming stretch of the schedule, when they play Los Angeles and Philadelphia 10 times in 15 games. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball. The Phillies might be in that position before long — they’ve won 19 of their last 23.
The numbers are the numbers. But right now the National League wild-card winner is projected to win 88 games. The Braves are 51-50, which means they would need to go 37-24 the rest of the season. That’s .607 baseball. It’s not like that can’t be done, given the way they’ve mostly played over the past month. But have another 2-4 week and watch how harder things get.
Sorry. Didn’t mean to ruin your morning.
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157 comments Add your comment
NO MORE BOBBY
July 30th, 2009
12:49 pm
I see two idiots in that picture.
This is NOT the Braves year but a nice preview of what is to come. If we can finally talk Bobby into walking away and get a new manager I see great things for Braves baseball. The fans and I really believe some of the players are ready to embrace change.
Just imagine the atmosphere of when Maddux was back at Turner but every night. 2010 could be a really exciting year for baseball in Atlanta. Walk away Bobby.
The Grinch
July 30th, 2009
12:59 pm
Let us not forget that had Minnesota not cheated both openly and behind the scenes, we would have won the ‘91 WS also. However, there was no excuse for not winning the ‘96. Moves like putting a washed up Jeff Reardon in (who the AL had been seeing for years) instead of a red hot Wohlers, then when he DOES put in Wohlers he puts him in too early and leaves him in too long and…$%#^ Leyritz…etc. are the reason we didn’t win more games that counted. Bobby is always a step behind what’s going on in big games. He’s a great manager for keeping a clubhouse happy over a long period, but it slays me when people laud him as a tactical genius when Maddux pitches a complete game. Bobby needs smart bench coaches to succeed beyond a certain point.
Phil
July 30th, 2009
1:00 pm
I keep hoping and praying that Cox will walk away after this year. Give him some nice job in the front office, but for heavens sake get him out of the dugout. We need an influx of new attitude that can promote excitement with both players and fans. We have some good talent that a new manager could run with and build upon. Cox needs to retire, that’s all there is to it.
Raleigh Dog
July 30th, 2009
1:13 pm
If Mets get healthy at all, Braves will finish in 4th place–15-20 games out of first. After 100 games, we know what kind of team they are. Average at best.
Marc from FL
July 30th, 2009
1:16 pm
Yeah, the solution to our problems is to bring in Greg Maddux as our manager, we’d be playing .700 ball if we would have started with him for sure… You people are… amazing.
mcgannfan
July 30th, 2009
1:19 pm
being a faint hearted optimist, I still think we could do the wild card but we got getting to taking names and kicking youknowwhat!
Hohn is a disaster and NO, he didn’t cause us the game but it helped to make those who may have doubts that he aint put together right!
NOW, MB, pulease tell us why Cox has been sporting a catchers mitt for the past two games? Is he planning on catching and give McGann and Ross a day off? ;0
He has to have some kind of reason for have that mitt…..
and thanks, MK, for your great blogs!
playmeortrademe
July 30th, 2009
1:26 pm
IF Heyward can be a reliable 4/5, Chipper can have one more productive year, and Hanson’s arm doesn’t fall off (worried Hanson=Mark Prior due to his mechanics), I like 2010 much better than chances this year. I’ll take a lineup of McLouth, Prado/Infante, Chipper, Bmac, Heyward, Escobar, Kotchman, Diaz/Church with a rotation of Hanson, Vazquez, Jurrjens, Lowe, Hudson with Soriano closing. That should be a 90-plus win team
Phil
July 30th, 2009
1:28 pm
The guy was not saying Maddux should be the manager. He was saying the excitement that night of the Maddux jersey retirement could be a routine event with a new manager and the team playing with some emotion and purpose.
Do you guys rememeber when Tom Landry was the coach of the Cowboys? He had been their coach forever and in the end the Cowboys were going through losing seasons, missing the playoffs, etc.. When Jerry Jones came in, he realized the Cowboys needed a new coach and that Landry was past him prime. Now I do not agree the way he went about it, he dumped Landry without a proper and respectful send off.
Just because Cox has been our manager forever doesn’t mean you need to keep him year after year when we are losing and it’s obvious he is way past his prime, as Landry was. Give Cox a front office job, have a nice send off on the field, but for the love of God, we have to move forward without him.
Skeezix
July 30th, 2009
1:31 pm
HUH? I’m glad Jeff’s a reporter and not a MLB coach. Can’t believe he’s defending a sleazy and unprofessional umpire like Hohn. Cox should have been raising hell about some of those calls. Has Jeff forgotten the Boston episode? What about Hohn celebrating with the Marlins catcher at the end of last night’s game? That okay too? It dosn’t matter that maybe it was a difference maker in last night’s game, his behavior was inappropriate. What was with pulling out the line up card? . Also, the crap he pulled in the Boston game did cost us a game.
AZBravoFan
July 30th, 2009
1:31 pm
The strike call certainly didn’t cost them the game. That game was on Kawakami. Major league hitters should be able to recognize when umps are calling an erratic strike zone and adjust their approach. Maybe BMac could have slapped one of those outside pitches down the third base line where nobody was playing, instead of pulling it to the right where 3 guys were playing.
Nick
July 30th, 2009
1:35 pm
Bobby usually wears a catchers mitt when there isn’t a screen in front of the dugout so he can attempt to protect himself from foul balls into the dugout.
Mitchell
July 30th, 2009
1:42 pm
Lou Vales
July 30th, 2009
12:19 pm
Ed, Boog and Simpson are good. I watch the Marlins announcers. Two miscreants who spend majority of telecast joking about sweater vests they are wearing and other inane subjects. After EVERY meaningless SOLO home run by Dan Uggla they scream out orgasmically “His name is Dan Uggla”–After last year’s 3 error All Star appearance–which sent him on an abyssmal slide—I believe every baseball fan in America knew his name.
I for one don’t get what everybody’s deal is with Joe Simpson. We’ve been lucky not to have to listen to baffoons who use the same catch phrase for every homerun they’ve seen in their entire broadcasting career.
Compared to that retard Singleton in Chicago who screamed “Yes, yes, yes, yes!” after Buerle’s perfect game or his homerun call “you can put it on the board… yes!” which he still does if the White Sox are losing 20 to 1, I don’t find Joe Simpson to be a homer.
Then of course you have the timeless appeal of “it’s an A-Bomb, from A-ROD!” by that Yankee jackass. Those guys I think would literally have sex with Derek Jeter if he asked them. “See ya!”, says Michael Kay who I literally want to see die.
But possibly even worse would be the Marlins guys who for some reason can be heard on the highlights on Braves.com. They sound like 12 year olds watching batting practice. Unfortunately, that’s what Kawakami’s games are turning into.
I didn’t like Chip or Boog at first and they do kind of annoy me. I mean, Jon Sciambi can make a game winning hit sound like a first inning single and I definitely don’t like “Ballgame!” but they’re okay. If some of our guys are a little homerish they are at least twenty times more professional than the vast majority of announcers in baseball.
playmeortrademe
July 30th, 2009
1:46 pm
Interesting, and not really surprising, that ESPN has said jack+squat about Hohn. If “Red Sox” were on the unforms, Peter Gammons would be on location at Hohn’s hotel calling for an immediate firing and lifetime ban and the story would be the first 30 minutes of every Sportscenter.
bvillebaron
July 30th, 2009
1:47 pm
AppalachiaBrave:
Trade Hudson? Why would you do that? He has much more value to the Braves than to any other team. Besides, inasmuch as he won’t return to the team until at least mid-August, he has no trade value any way. If Hudson returns then and pitches like the old Tim Hudson, the Braves will have acquired a better pitcher shortly after the trade deadline than any other team will be able to do so including Cliff Lee (unless someone empties their farm for Halladay). Stand pat or be buyers for a change (I agree with others that Heyward should not be rushed but what he has done so far in AA-admittedly not that many games–is impressive. The Braves have a shot to win the wild card with the addition of Hudson and Infante and shouldn’t mortgage any more of their future for “band aids”, particularly with what the team can be in the next several years.
Mitchell
July 30th, 2009
1:47 pm
Raleigh Dog
July 30th, 2009
1:13 pm
If Mets get healthy at all, Braves will finish in 4th place–15-20 games out of first. After 100 games, we know what kind of team they are. Average at best.
Raliegh Dog, U R an idiot. We lose two games and suddenly you’re worried about the Mets?
You people are pathetic. We’re going to win tonight. We’re going to beat the Dodgers and we’re going to keep on winning so get over two damn games to the G damn Marlins.
Mrs. Chanandler Bong
July 30th, 2009
1:50 pm
I don’t think Hohn was responsible for our loss. We were. But you cannot discount Hohn’s actions last night and he fact that they were out of line and really inappropriate for an umpire. I know that all the players are professionals and should be able to block this stuff out and step up and play, but as a former athlete myself, it gets into your head when you’ve got an official you know is against you.
Ben
July 30th, 2009
1:51 pm
Get the brooms out because this team is done.
playmeortrademe
July 30th, 2009
1:54 pm
Oh, and ESPN has ruined baseball announcers. There is absolutely no subtlety the likes of Pete VW or Vin Scully or Kalas. They all have to sound like Stuart Scott or something. That includes Chip Caray, who=nails on chalkboard most of the time. I generally like Boog and like Joe…Joe is paid to be a homer, really, but a least he’s not intolerable like the White Sox announcers or, thank heavens, Tim McCarver (worst.broadcaster.ever.)
Ray
July 30th, 2009
1:55 pm
Not sure who said it, but really like the comparison of Cox with Landry..until this year, I’ve been a huge Bobby Cox supporter, still think he’s one of the greatest of all time…but it’s time for a change..it really is…but the only way we have a change is if Bobby himself steps down…there’s no Jerry Jones here to fire him…and one more thing….Is it a coincidence that the losing starting once Conrad was sent down and Norton was here? Not saying Conrad was the reason we were winning but I think this deflated the team, showing them, playing hard and producing doesn’t mean anything to cox..not if you’re not one of his boys…and I’ve seen that this year…I hate to say it, but I have a really bad feeling we’re going to see KJ in the starting lineup soon platooning with Prado…and that would be a HUGE mistake
Ray
July 30th, 2009
1:58 pm
Oh and one more thing..whoever said this team is done…they’re not…if this team is motivated and managed well, I still believe the pitching is there to keep us in the race til the end…and for some reason I got that black eyed peas song in my head….”i got a feeling…..that tonight’s gonna be a good night…that tonight’s gonna be a real good night”..lol
Hooter Girl
July 30th, 2009
2:11 pm
If Hohn makes the right call McCann is looking at a 3-0 count and does not have to swing at the next pitch, he can wait for his pitch. Now this would not necessarily lead to a big inning, but it sure took us out of one.
Phil
July 30th, 2009
2:14 pm
Ray,
You’re right, there is no Jerry Jones to remove Cox. Wren won’t do it,
he probably has less clout than Cox, even though he’s the GM. Any other owner would have fired Cox years ago. We will have to wait until Cox decides to leave on his own, and that could be years. It’s never easy to remove someone who was been around as long as Cox has, but it needs to be done. And my whole point was that it could be done respectfully, not the way Jones did it.
phily fanatic
July 30th, 2009
2:29 pm
ahh this is great up here in phily we are going to have a pitty party for you poor sothern boys. keep crying boys we get lee and your team can not afford anyone. oh thats right you made your big move early on nm he is the only guy on your team with speed and power the rest of your braves are turtles or snails. maybe next year braves fans or not.
Russell
July 30th, 2009
2:30 pm
Ray: Well said I couldn’t agree more! Demoting Conrad instead of Norton was a huge mistake.
danny
July 30th, 2009
2:31 pm
I am a lifelong braves fan but with everything that is happening it would make more since to go and trade the players they can and restock they lost alot in the 3 trades the last 2 years even as far back remember jd drew trade oh that was great how about jermaine dye to kc that was friggen great to anyway put a package together and either get a big bat like a-gon or just trade kj,kotchman,vasquez,jo jo reyes and just retool for when terry pendelton becomes manager
Russell
July 30th, 2009
2:36 pm
I keep going back to the idea that Frank Wren actually thought that the lineup he had assembled coming out of spring training was enough to make the playoffs! It was obvious that we had a team with zero speed, little power, and only Chipper & McCann who have consistantly hit over .300 for their careers. He was banking on EVERY player in the lineup having a career year!
Marc from FL
July 30th, 2009
2:38 pm
I just don’t think the manager really matters that much. Yeah there’s a few examples of Cox literally costing us a game, but there’s some examples of him making moves that won the game for us too. Most managers today more or less approach it the same way, and if a win or loss is coming down to whether or not Greg Norton pinch hits in the 8th on a regular basis, then there’s larger issues with the team than Bobby Cox.
Marc from FL
July 30th, 2009
2:39 pm
So Russell, are moving on to Wren now, or are you still all about Cox at the moment?
Russell
July 30th, 2009
2:46 pm
Has anyone noticed that our leadoff hitter (McCloth) has the lowest batting average (.261) of any Braves regular? The 2nd lowest OBP (.348) of any regular? Only ahead .001 of Kotchman in OBP (.347).
I like McCloth, but I don’t see how those numbers can justify using him in the leadoff postion.
Sonny Clusters
July 30th, 2009
2:48 pm
We was noticing that the AJC said Bobby Cox and McCann was both dejected during the game last night. We’d be dejected, too, if we was getting beat two in a row by the Marlins. In fact it would make us mad enough to get throwed out. We was also noticing that Bobby Cox was wearing a glove in the dugout and was thinking that’s a good way to keep his fingers out of his nose.
Phil
July 30th, 2009
2:48 pm
If the manager doesn’t matter, then what are they there for? To fill out the lineup card? Chipper could do that. There is a lot of in game decisions that have to be made. When to bunt, when to hit and run, when to steal, when to take out the pitcher, when to pinch hit, and on and on. There are lots of things a manager does and Cox is bad at all of them.
curtis jones
July 30th, 2009
2:49 pm
playmeortrademe at 1:46: nail on the head. on the money. bingo. couldn’t have said it better.
Ray
July 30th, 2009
2:53 pm
Russell, you know I was just thinking that the other day..yes, mclouth is fast, but he’s not a leadoff hitter….but he’s the best we got in that spot, so I don’t think he’ll be moving anywhere else in the lineup this year..
Russell
July 30th, 2009
2:57 pm
Marc from FL – I don’t agree with every move Cox makes, but he does the best he can with the team that was given to him by Wren. Like you said: “I just don’t think the manager really matters that much”
Coach (2010 or Bust)
July 30th, 2009
2:58 pm
Nobody wants to trade pitching. That said, we are about to have six starters and two closers who are pending free agents.
Sadly, I’m in agreement that the playoff’s are a pipe dream right now. Doing nothing at the trade dead line is a mistake and selling pitching would empty the turnstiles at Turner Field.
Frank Wren can’t win for losing while winning. The old catch-22 has us by the balls and we are running out of games to play.
Russell
July 30th, 2009
3:00 pm
Ray- I don’t think he will be moving anywhere in the lineup, and on this team, leadoff is probably the best place for him. I was using that as an example of how pityful an offensive lineup we have. They have been hot in July, but I would bet they won’t continue to hit .290+ the rest of the year.
Russell
July 30th, 2009
3:11 pm
Brooks Conrad: 14 games, 32 AB, 11 hits, 1 double, 2 triples, 2 home runs, 22 total bases, 8 RBI, .344 Avg, .688 Slug, and 1.070 OPS – sent to the minors in favor of: Greg Norton: .160 average, zero home runs.
What genius made that decision? Cox or Wren?
BravesFAN885
July 30th, 2009
3:16 pm
YOU’RE WORTHLESS JEFF SCHULTZ
Coach (2010 or Bust)
July 30th, 2009
3:25 pm
Here is one little indicator of just how problematic this team’s offense really is.
This 2009 Braves squad is on pace to steal 58 bases.
So what’s the big deal, you ask? 58 will be the lowest team total since….and are ya’ll ready for this????????????
1975.
The game has gotten faster while our team is regressing when it comes to playing small ball. Bobby Cox and Frank Wren have to be held accountable for this discretion.
Marc from FL
July 30th, 2009
3:30 pm
I have mixed feelings about Wren, the Javy and JJJ trades were great, the other moves were decent. Overall though, I felt like our offense was weak starting the season, as did just about everyone if I remember right, and ultimately he didn’t address that before the bell rang. I really though we were going to get Dye and Javy from the White Sox, why we didn’t? Who knows.
To clarify earlier, what meant by my comments about the manager not mattering, was that most other managers wouldn’t be managing the team much differently than Cox is right now; not that we don’t need a manager at all, lol.
Ray
July 30th, 2009
4:01 pm
And I just saw that KJ is in the lineup tonigh in DOBs blog…just as I said I’d be afraid that Cox will start platooning him again…..his boys will always be his boys…bs…yes he’s hot since he’s been back, but I sure hope he doesn’t take prado’s ab’s away..
This Sorry Government NOT working for Americans
July 30th, 2009
4:20 pm
I was watching the video of the throw out last night. Umpire was at the plate and batter was in place and ready and the umpire called time out while Bobby and McCann were in their dougouts. THe umpire came over to the dougout. Now I am sorry but that Umpire was way out of line as he always is when it comes to the braves. Balls so far outside were being called strikes for Florida and this game was a joke.
I am calling on the Unpire union to view this entire tape of the game and fire this umpire. He is bias and he really has several teams he throws games for. Not just against the braves either. He calls bad games for several clubs. Guess the Florida Marlins are one of his favorite teams. Either way, he should never be able to be behind the plate when the braves play as he has a very open hatred of the braves. Its that noticable.
Bigmike
July 30th, 2009
4:24 pm
Get rid of cox and you’ll win. He’s a loser.
Hillbilly Deluxe
July 30th, 2009
4:44 pm
I’m all for a manager protecting his players but when you’ve been thrown out a bajillion times for arguing balls and strikes it gets a little old. It’s an automatic ejection and it kind of loses it punch after the first hundred times.
Win,lose, or tie bravos til i die
July 30th, 2009
4:44 pm
greg norton must go!
Win,lose, or tie bravos til i die
July 30th, 2009
4:48 pm
is greg norton even a baseball player
I Swear
July 30th, 2009
4:52 pm
I saw Bill Hohn in midtown around 1:00 this morning swapping spit with a dude-
Mitch C
July 30th, 2009
4:52 pm
Jeff, one would have to figure that if Vaquez goes, so does Hudson. Why would we pay a guy coming off surgery, who hasnt pitched in over a year, and let the one who may be our best pitcher this year go FA. My bet is they both go, and our rotation next year is Lowe, JJ, Hanson, KK, and whoever at fifth starter.
This team really needa another bat. I hope we make a trade over the winter to get that bat. If we get another bat, and the pitching is as good as it has been in 2009, the Braves have a legitimate shot for the WC in 2010.
As for the Phillies, this would be their third straight division title. Right now, they might be the next dynasty of the NL East. If the Mets get healthy, they have a chance to compete with Philly in 2010, maybe, but the way I see it, Philly might dominate the division for the next six or seven years.
I hope the Braves can make a push for the WC in 2009. Realistically, they have a tough road to go.
Mitch
Jay Cee
July 30th, 2009
5:27 pm
Why don’t we discuss some of the Braves announcers? All they do is critique umpires. I mean its almost every night. I am not too big of an umpire fan. However, all the comments is not going to change a thing. Besides, I get bored hearing it over and over. Expecially from Joe and John (Boog????)
Patrick
July 30th, 2009
5:45 pm
Wait Jeff!
You are saying that the Braves are to blame for Hohn being the worst umpire in the league?? He has had to throw out a total of 5 Braves to keep himself and that ridiculous looking moustache on the field the last two times he has called a game for ATL….not to mention the play where he called Hermedia safe and then changed it to an out mid-call. The guy is lousy! Plain and simple! He isn’t even worthy of calling my sons little league games.
He went to the dugout and picked a fight…..just like last time when he picked the fight with O’Flahererty. His job is to be un-biased and keep is fat butt behind the plate and try to call the game to the best of his ability. It seems he should focus more on that then whether Bobby is complaining or not….because Lord knows he has plenty of room for improvement.
Furthermore, if you are going to write about baseball, maybe you should learn a little about it first. Please respond.