Braves’ problem is they can’t afford even one bad week
This is umpire Bill Hohn, who doesn't seem to like Bobby Cox much (he ejected him again Wednesday) and doesn't care that the Braves have slipped in the wild-card race. (AP photo)
This is what happens when you dig a hole in June.
Over the last the seven days, the Braves have two wins, four losses and an off day. That doesn’t qualify as a major slide. But the results illustrate how difficult of a position they’ve put themselves in. Philadelphia has blown open an eight-game lead in the National League East. The Phillies also just added Cy Young winner Cliff Lee to the starting rotation in a trade with Cleveland.
I guess getting a Cy Young winner instead of Roy Halladay qualifies as a consolation prize. Folks, that ship has sailed.
The wild-card race is almost as daunting. The Braves are only four games back of wild-card leader San Francisco. That wouldn’t be a big problem if the Giants were in first and the Braves were in second. But it’s not that simple.
Before losing four of their last six — including the first two games of a series to Florida, one of the teams they’re chasing — the Braves were tied for third, three games back of then-leader Colorado. Now in dropping four games back of San Francisco, which in itself is no big deal, they’re tied for fifth (and sixth) place. Milwaukee is only a game behind them in seventh.
Actually, the Braves are closer in the wild-card standings to the eighth-place Mets (two games) than they are the Giants (four). We all thought the Mets were dead. So where does that put the Braves?
That’s the difficult thing about wild-card races — it’s often not the number of games behind in the standings that matters as much as the number of teams you’re battling. You can’t expect/project/hope every other team loses because they’re all playing each others. There’s no exact formula. But in a sense, a four-game deficit in a six-to-eight team pack seems almost as bad as an eight-game deficit in second place.
What this all means now is what it meant before: The Braves have to do something very unlikely to make the playoffs. They need to sweep some series. They also can’t afford to lose any ground — and actually need to gain — despite an upcoming stretch of the schedule, when they play Los Angeles and Philadelphia 10 times in 15 games. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball. The Phillies might be in that position before long — they’ve won 19 of their last 23.
The numbers are the numbers. But right now the National League wild-card winner is projected to win 88 games. The Braves are 51-50, which means they would need to go 37-24 the rest of the season. That’s .607 baseball. It’s not like that can’t be done, given the way they’ve mostly played over the past month. But have another 2-4 week and watch how harder things get.
Sorry. Didn’t mean to ruin your morning.
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
157 comments Add your comment
Pete Orr
July 30th, 2009
10:13 am
I would say 80-90% of all of Cox’s ejections he’s been correct.
Have to be careful typing that sentence…
Don
July 30th, 2009
10:22 am
It is absolutely amazing that the Baseball Writers either do not themselves understand or at least to not make an issue with Bobby Cox’s unbelievable continueous failer to understand and teach/emphasize/demand the absolute necessity for hitters to work the count and make the opposing pitcher throw a lot of pitches if you are to have consistantly good run production. The Braves are next to last in all of baseball in average number of pitches seen per at bat – which guarantees that their run production will not be consistant. This ignores the most important element in offenisve managemet. Teams that do this enable the hitters to see what the pitcher has, adjust to the pitcher, get better pitches to hit, makes him make misntakes, wears the pitcher down both within innings and for the game, gets you into the team’s weak middle relief, creats more walks and more improtantly significantly better hitting opportunities. It is absurd that a manager could manage for 20 plus years and not understand and implement this – and even more absurd that Baseball Writers either do not understand the neceissity for this or refuse to make any kind of point or challenge about Bobby Cox’s complete failure in this and as an offensive manager.
Mac
July 30th, 2009
10:23 am
The Braves probably aren’t going to make the playoffs, but I hope the players will continue to fight for the wildcard. I think they will. This seems like a pretty good team right now. Add a few pieces in the offseason and they contend next season.
That Hohn guy needs a boot as far as it will go, if you know what I mean. And, I think you do.
doc bailey
July 30th, 2009
10:23 am
it is very interesting, last week, when the Braves were winning a few more games than loosing, the ” bandwagoners” were jumping on board and saying lets go with this team, they have finally put it together and will make a run. This team does have the “groundwork” of players to develop into a future contender . You look at this team and must realize, it is a 500 ball club and adding one or two players would not make us very much better to contend for either the division or wild card this year. my opinion is to bring up players the Braves think will be ready next year and let them play the remainder of the season. This is the time to reevaluate for the future and see what needs to be filled in the off-season. If anything, Wren needs to look at the farm system,and see what it will take to bring it back to where it used to be.
Smoltzy
July 30th, 2009
10:23 am
For those who love Soriano his future is not too bright. He will get a nice fat 3 year contract from the Yankees and take it. Within 1 month he go on the dl and never be heard from again. Anyone remember, Chris hammond, Steve Karsay, and Kyle Farnsworth. I would love for them to keep Soriano but I just think he will test the market.
Phil
July 30th, 2009
10:24 am
Don,
I’m as sick of Moron Cox as anybody. But can you come up with something besides that same post every time? With Moron Cox, it’s easy to get some new material.
NC Braves Fan
July 30th, 2009
10:27 am
The past couple of nights are a great reminder of how the baseball season is a real marathon and over the course of that marathon, quality emerges. But on any given night, your team may look pathetic depending on a variety of factors – including the opposing starting pitcher.
Josh Johnson & Ricky Nolasco did a really good job of clamping down on the Braves offense the past couple of nights. It happens, and it’s not like those guys are a couple of schlubs.
Heck, the Phillies got shut out by Yusmeiro Petit last night (whoever the hell that is).
Odds are the matchup today is a little more in our favor pitching-wise.
Finally, it’s not that going 37-24 is in itself such a challenge. It’s compiling that kind of record against pitching in our division that includes Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, just about any of FLA’s starters … and now Cliff Lee. And THAT’S one big reason why the math is so daunting for the Braves going down the stretch.
Mac
July 30th, 2009
10:27 am
Question: “What was the justification of signing Kawakami again??”
Answer: Tazawa rejected the Braves offer and signed with Boston.
Mac
July 30th, 2009
10:27 am
Didn’t say it was a good reason.
midnite
July 30th, 2009
10:32 am
A sure HOF manager respected by everyone in the game and you Fantasy League GM’s say he does not know what he’s doing. He does blow a few decisions, but tell me who doesn’t? Y’all stick to your Fantasy ball and you can make all the right decisions and ridiculous trades.
the hopes of the braves nation rest in your hands mr. hanson
July 30th, 2009
10:34 am
super mario….damn, thats funny.
brave-in-nyc
July 30th, 2009
10:35 am
Cut Norton and call up Heyward NOW, put him in RF he’s only hitting .438 at AA.
JH has scouts comparing him to no less than Willie McCovey.
50 years ago to the day: In his Major League debut on July 30, 1959, McCovey went four-for-four against Hall-of-Famer Robin Roberts en route to a .354 batting average that year, in which he won National League Rookie of the Year honors while playing in just 52 games.
Dawgdad
July 30th, 2009
10:49 am
The next time Bill Hohn is behind the plate, Mccann needs to tell Hohn his eyes are watering a bit tonight and then proceed to completely miss a few belt high fastballs over his shoulder. “Damn Bill, my eyes watered up on that one, sorry”.
tnbrave
July 30th, 2009
10:50 am
I like the idea of calling up Heyward in September but I don’t want to rush him. I believe he is the real deal and I think we could see him next year on a regular basis. I really like what Garrett is doing in RF after the slow start but Church has been somewhat of a disappointment although I liked the trade. We have really started hitting the ball since the AS break…so I am liking our team right now!
Loyal Homer
July 30th, 2009
10:55 am
Jeff,
Enjoyed the article today. We definitely don’t need a bad week. Almost a must win today!
I referenced you on my sports blog debate yesterday! You and your colleagues! Check it out!
http://thesportsdebates.com/category/tsd/the-espn-dedicated-local-coverage-debate/
Lou Vales
July 30th, 2009
10:59 am
Jeff, I’ll try this with you. Tell me what i’m missing:
McCann>Baker/Paulino
Prado>Uggla
Jones>Let’s Get Serious
Anderson>Coghlin
Church/Diaz>Hermida
Ross and McClouth A Wash
Cantu Slightly Better than Kochman
Ramirez>Escobar–However his offensive skills make differential not that bad.
Braves Starters 1-5>Marlin Starters 1-5.
Braves Closer>Marlins Closer
Set Up Men are even
Benches are pretty close to even.
Won’t even get into payroll, fan support, TV Revenue, Quality of ownership, stadium quality.
Why are the Marlins ahead of the Braves?
Harpie
July 30th, 2009
10:59 am
Too late – they’ve already slud….
Harpie
July 30th, 2009
10:59 am
Enter your comments here
Ray
July 30th, 2009
11:00 am
Has there any mention of the umpire’s fist bump to the marlin’s catcher after the last out anywhere on the espn or anything?? I have NEVER seen that before….someone in the Atlanta media needs to take that clip and send it to the national stations…
Loyal Homer
July 30th, 2009
11:01 am
Yea, Ray, I hope the commissioner’s office sees the footage from last night!
Phil
July 30th, 2009
11:06 am
Lou Vales,
I will tell you why the Marlins are ahead of the Braves:
Gonzalez > Cox
CW
July 30th, 2009
11:20 am
At least we still have the Bark in the Park!
Bravo
July 30th, 2009
11:25 am
Time to trade Lowe, KK, Gonzo, Moylan and Soriano. Lets stock up some great prospects. Then lets look at possibly moving Kotchman for some power. Time to make the moves, what do you have to loss? oh yeah, they could walk at the end of the year or get hurt and we get nothing. Great concept, lets hang on to them and continue our .500 ways.
GaPnt
July 30th, 2009
11:27 am
The Braves will not get into the playoffs with Cox as a manager. He needs to retire at the end of the year so there is a chance to make the playoff next year.
Rufus
July 30th, 2009
11:28 am
The Braves, do not have a motor strong enough to overcome the climb, nor do they want it bad enough.
The climb takes mental determination, for which the Braves are not known for.
To be fair, the umpires this year have been the worse, I’ve seen watching baseball, they want confrontation with players, as well as manager, I guess Bobby reminds them how bad they are and they don’t like it.
The thing about the Braves team, is that no one knows which Braves team will show-up tonight?
Swaga1
July 30th, 2009
11:28 am
Thanks Mac,
And No, it wasn’t a good reason to sign him.
Necromancer
July 30th, 2009
11:29 am
Jeff Schultz
Any chance the Braves will bring back Conrad in the next couple of days and cut Norton?
I think that Conrad has proven himself over Norton and Norton needs to go.
To heck with “having a veteran pinch hitter” on the bench!
Norton sux and that’s all there is to it. Let people who can produce come in. If you can’t grow, then it’s time to go.
Marc from FL
July 30th, 2009
11:30 am
The Marlins had a hot start versus the Braves sorry start. Our line up may look better on paper, but not by much, the Marlins have a lot of power and extra-base threats than the Braves do. And calling up Heyward now is far from a sure thing. He’ll either A) succeed or B) fail and need at least 6 more months longer in the minors than he needs now to turn it around. Not worth the risk in my opinion.
CW
July 30th, 2009
11:36 am
Why did they send Conrad down? It seems to me that Conrad was a real boost for the team! He played with heart and determination and it seemed to be positive for the entire team. They had a great record while Conrad was in the line-up. Maybe there is some hope if the bring him back up! KJ needs to go
dawg22
July 30th, 2009
11:36 am
Turd Ferguson u r an idiiot!!
dawg22
July 30th, 2009
11:37 am
Enter your comments here
Jeff Schultz
July 30th, 2009
11:38 am
Ghost – Fixed. Thanks.
The Grinch – I don’t know Vasquez well enough to know what he would do, but I know other pitchers you are going to be paying over the next few years and not sure that he fits into the budget, particularly if your top 3 are Lowe-Hanson-JJ (in whatever order).
EVERYBODY – That was a bad call by Hohn but the Braves did not lose the game because of that call or even the resulting ejections.
BBrown – You are one smart man.
Pete Orr – I’m sure Bobby would agree with you.
Loyal Homer – Thanks, I’ll check it out.
Turd – I need to take this opportunity to tell you that you’ve been banned from further commenting, not because of this relatively tame ones but others you’ve posted on blogs pertaining to Michael Vick. If you want to take it up with us, send me an email.
Lou Vales
July 30th, 2009
11:47 am
Dear Phil, Actually Fredo makes Bobby Cox look like a combination of Joe McCarthy, Gene Mauch, Walter Alston, Tommy Lasorda and John McGraw.
curtis jones
July 30th, 2009
11:51 am
Jeff, I agree with your take on the game and Hohn (see 9:30 post). But again….is Hohn in somebody’s office today? If not, why not? And how can he possibly be allowed to participate in tonight’s game?
Win,lose, or tie bravos til i die
July 30th, 2009
11:55 am
next guy that says that we must get rid of prado or vasquez, i hope you fall down a flight of stairs and be paralyzed forever. what we do need to do is get rid of norton who is not only struggling at the plate but struggling to be a baseball player in general. KK is a joke pitcher who we gave to much money( I dont even watch braves games when he pitches). KJ is probably the biggest waste of time and why we sent down Conrad for this guy, god only knows. we have to find a way to lock up gonzo and soriano because of there lights out pitching. And Hanson is destined to have a great carrer is he doesnt get sick before every start. But the season isnt over till its over( remember in 2007 that team that won about 20 some odd games and swept its way to the world series)
tnbrave
July 30th, 2009
11:57 am
Reports now say that Padres are open to trading Gonzalez and Bell. Any thoughts we can get them? Who would we send? KJ, Kotchman, Reyes, and another prospect? Not sure but really like Gonzalez. Not sure we can out bid Red Sox!!!
stupup74
July 30th, 2009
12:05 pm
I gotta ask, what have the braves done since the break that they haven’t done all year?
They are doing same thing they have done all year, which is to look really good for a stretch, albeit for a tad longer than normal during the last homestand, and then stink for a stretch.
This is what they do, they are a mediocre ball club. They do not have enough offense or PITCHING to contend. I don’t care what you say Lowe and KK have been BUSTS Vasquez is having a career year, but we can’t seem to win but half his starts. (That’s not on him.], but still)
This team should have started selling in June. They have to get a replacement in the organization for Chipper Jones one day. He ain’t going to play and hit until he is 50. They have some pieces to build around, but they need some more. Sell and eat it this year and then set yourself up for a runs in 2011 and beyond. Notice I did not say 2010. It would be STUPID to rush Heyward or Freeman to the majors.
PS: No one should be off the table other than McCann, JJ, and Hanson. Instead of signing Chipper long term they should have moved him for prospects, 10 and 5 status be darned.
PMC
July 30th, 2009
12:10 pm
Jeff… we know they lost the game because KK is overmatched and hell… gave up a home run to the pitvher. He’s awful…and expensive and minor leaguers across the US are screaming… that they can also pitch 4.2 innings per start and walk half the lineup.
That said… the quality of the umpiring in the major leagues is disgraceful. It’s the worst of any sport and they are the most arrogant while having the least amout of oversite or encouragement to get the calls right.
The first run last night came after an absolute missed call at 1st… and it progressed after that.
If they are going to suck at thier jobs…. let them run for office.
Lou Vales
July 30th, 2009
12:12 pm
Jeff, Never asked your opinion. I have NEVER bought into the 14 in a row division thing as that awe inspiring. Let me tell you why. For the great majority of that run the Braves were in a division with two teams that did not have ANY money–Well, the Marlins spent money for one year and you saw what happened–the Marlins and the Expos. Another in that division was the Mets who I think baseball people would agree by acclamation was a horribly run franchise. Therefore as I see it if the Braves dominated the Phillies they were in the Playoffs. That they did and they parlayed 14 consecutive Playoff appearances into 1!!! less World Series Championship than the Florida Marlins. I would equate it to the University of Florida being in a division that contained Vandy and Kentucky, and a Tennessee team that was as woeful as they were last year for 14 years and Georgia. Let’s say Florida dominates Georgia 14 years in a row to win the East BUT instead of winning National Championship a couple of times along with frequent appearances in Title game instead they go on to win only one Title in 14 years with numerous poor performances when they obviously had better talent. As a Florida grad, i would not be that impressed and I bet Georgia fans would not be that inspired with the same results for them. I know that if the Yankees or Red Sox won 14 Division titles in a row and only produced 1 World Series Championship that they would not be lionizing the manager. Agreed??
stupup74
July 30th, 2009
12:13 pm
Addendum to my other posts, Heyward is on the list of untouchables. Freeman is not.
I am not speaking to anyone on here perosnally, but I love it when people get on here and say lets trade KJ, Kotchman, and JoJo for Gonzalez in SD or Holiday, etc. That stuff cracks me up.
Jo Jo is not worth anything on the market, KJ is not far behind, and Kotchman is worth even less than those. You might get a middle reliever for them at best. OUR Gonzo has some value, but nothing more than a middle prospect. Teams are tight with prosepcts right now.
It would take a Heyward/Hanson type prospect in the center of the deal for the Padres to give up their Gonzo, who would look GREAT in a braves uni, but we don’t have them to give away right now.
Ed
July 30th, 2009
12:14 pm
I just want to comment on the person who thinks Joe Simpson is awful. I am a transplanted Atlantan now living in Kansas. Thanks to MLB Extra Innings I can watch most Braves games along with all other MLB games. We get to see and compare all announcers. We think that the combination of Joe and Boog is by far the best in the league. They are objective, fair, and downright amusing to hear. They both know so much about the game and players. And, they bring up information that is really what listeners want to know rather than the same stuff you hear every day. We watch the Braves with Joe and Boog as much to be entertained by them as well as the game.
Now to the many comments made here today:
We are stuck with KK for three years. Just maybe, he will become aclimated to life in Atlanta and MLB baseball and do much better next year.
JV is our BEST pitcher and should be retained.
Greg Norton must go immediately.
The tobacco stuffed mouth pitcher now on the DL should have gone before Norton.He is a disgrace as a role model for our kids.
KJ should be kept as a pinch hitter.
David Ross should play more.
Bobby Cox should be offered a golden parachute.
Give Church a chance. He really looks good.
Lou Vales
July 30th, 2009
12:19 pm
Ed, Boog and Simpson are good. I watch the Marlins announcers. Two miscreants who spend majority of telecast joking about sweater vests they are wearing and other inane subjects. After EVERY meaningless SOLO home run by Dan Uggla they scream out orgasmically “His name is Dan Uggla”–After last year’s 3 error All Star appearance–which sent him on an abyssmal slide—I believe every baseball fan in America knew his name.
gene garbage
July 30th, 2009
12:21 pm
too much to overcome. but they don’t need to move anyone. nor do i think they will. i’m telling ya, they’re looking to next year. and have been for some time. and they’re gonna have to move KK to the pen when huddy gets back.. but that does look like a VERY STRONG rotation for next year..
Jeff Schultz
July 30th, 2009
12:27 pm
Curtis – Can’t answer if he’s in somebody’s office or not, and unless it becomes a huge story, that kind of thing seldom becomes public. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Frank Wren or somebody spoke to somebody by phone. (That’s pure conjecture on my part. I haven’t asked Frank.)
Lou Vales – My answer is yes, but no. Translation: 1 World Series is not enough. I completely agree with anybody else who shares that belief, particularly the Series the team blew to the Yankees. But 14 straight divisions is a remarkable run, given free agency, players change, etc. Probably not answer you wanted.
AppalachiaBrave
July 30th, 2009
12:32 pm
Trade KJ, Hudson, and Kotchman for a power bat at first. Bring Conrad back up too! Heck he was only hitting like .350!! We had good chemistry with those young players in there….Maybe you can put Chipper in that deal too! Yes, I said it! Trade him to a contender and let him have a shot at another World Series. He deserves it, this team is not going to do it.
tnbrave
July 30th, 2009
12:36 pm
stupup74—Glad to hear I made you laugh. Most of what you said though is incorrect but your opinion. I believe that Kotchman is a decent player much more than you are giving him credit for. His defense at 1st base is better than most out there. I think his hitting has been a result of TP but is starting to coming around.
Lou Vales
July 30th, 2009
12:40 pm
Jeff, I wanted the answer you believed. I’m hearing some sabre rattling about “balls in the ribs and high spikes” don’t peope realize that over last 15 years that the Braves have been the most passive team in baseball. I believe Cox doesn’t want his pitchers starting anything because more than others he fears the retaliation. Funny to read about people praising Chipper’s hard slide. I would suggest that a guy who was disabled by a batting cage and by a bed in a 5 Star hotel in NYC would probably be well sereved to not go around initiating contact of any type. If Jones had Mantle’s injuries, he would have been permanently DISABLED. More missed games from specious injuries than any guy in last 50 years. His nickname is “Hoss”, guarantee it is not “Iron Hoss”.
Chris
July 30th, 2009
12:45 pm
Last night, after the SS for the Marlins robbed Prado and Jones on consecutive ground balls up the middle I got a bad feeling.
Starksy
July 30th, 2009
12:48 pm
Hey Ed from Kansas,
Are you smoking some sort of mutated cornstalk? JOE SIMPSON..OBJECTIVE????
He is the biggest cheerleader of all the major league analysts, and yes I get the MLB package as well. There is a reason they call him HOMER SIMPSON.
The whiny voice and know it all attitude is the reason I have the volume down during the games while listening to my IPOD.
Mrs. Chanandler Bong
July 30th, 2009
12:49 pm
Has anybody check out the Umpires’ homepage at MLB.com? There’s a picture of Bill Hohn giving out teddy bears to sick children.