Working on a dream? These five can get Braves there
A lot has to happen for this scene to be replayed (without Jeff Francoeur leaping in middle).
Let me start by saying I don’t think they can do it. It’s not that I don’t want them to do it. Because really — despite what some Fan Boy Underpants in the cheap seats might believe — sports writers really don’t root for or against anybody. (OK, Bobby Petrino. Him I don’t like.)
But when I tell you that I don’t think the Braves will win the National League East, it’s not that I’m pulling against them. Fact is, it would be a great story: “Frank Wren dumps on Smoltz, Glavine and Francoeur! Overcomes catastrophic Mark Teixeira trade by his predecessor! Shakes fist at critics and shouts, ‘Sweet victory is mine!” I’d actually like to write that. Hey, it’s all about the stories.
But do I think that will happen? No. Can it happen? Well, yes: If Philadelphia becomes pedestrian again and if the Braves take off. But for the latter to occur, they need heroic efforts from these five players. (Please vote in our poll to the left: “Who do you think is the most important Brave in the second half?” I’m giving you seven choices). Here’s my key five:
Loading ...♦ 1. Chipper Jones: In my view, it’s not even close who’s the most important player. We’ve seen what the ripple effect can be when Jones is in the lineup and hot. His importance is even more pronounced now because the Braves are largely devoid of power in the lineup. They rank 27th in the majors with 68 home runs — one every 44.3 at-bats. Jones missed 11 games in the first half. He needs to stay healthy and drive in the big runs because nobody else will.
♦ 2. Derek Lowe: He’s supposed to be the ace of the staff. This would be a good time to act like it. It was debatable, to say the least, whether Lowe’s resume justified the contract the Braves gave him. But he’s the one at the top of the rotation and the perceived steady veteran. He’s the one who should to lead the way. Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vasquez or Tommy Hanson shouldn’t be expected to fill that role. Lowe started off fine. He was 6-3 with a 3.49 ERA in the first two months of the season. But since then, he’s 2-4 with a 5.86 ERA in eight starts. Not going to get it done.
♦ 3. Yunel Escobar: He’s talented. He’s immature. There, I’m covered. Here’s the thing: Escobar’s here, and I just don’t think the Braves are going to trade him (at least not during the season). He’s one of their most productive hitters. While that has to continue, it’s not enough. The Braves can’t afford to be as erratic defensively as they were in the first half, and that starts at shortstop. They also can’t afford to have Escobar’s head explode every time something goes wrong. In short, he can’t be an idiot. When Bobby Cox is publicly calling you out, something is very wrong. Escobar has until the first pitch against the Mets to grow up.
♦ 4. Nate McClouth: It’s important to remember that he was not Plan A in center fielder. The Braves’ power problems this season started when Jordan Schafer showed he wasn’t ready. McLouth has 14 home runs — the most on the roster — but it’s not like he’s going to hit cleanup. He needs to contribute in all the ways Schafer wasn’t able to: hit for average, get on base, steal bases, drive in runs, play defense. This lineup’s margin for error is slim. McLouth can be a difference maker.
♦ 5. Tommy Hanson: I balked at this. Hanson obviously has been great (4-0, 2.85). While there’s no reason to think he’ll cool off, there’s also no history draw from. But if the rookie does pitch in the second half the way he did in his first seven starts, it gives the Braves the dominant power pitcher they obviously need. If Hanson gets 15 starts in the second half, that gives the team a legit chance to win 12 games. That’s a bonus you didn’t expect.
FInally: You’ll notice I don’t have Brian McCann listed. That might seem odd considering he’s the Braves’ lone All-Star and possibly the team’s most valuable player. The reason is, I don’t think McCann has to do anything different than what he’s doing now for the Braves to have a strong second half. That is: 1) Don’t go blind (how many pairs of goggles is he up to now?); 2) Provide solid offense. Further, he does not have Jones’ power (so he can’t make a difference there), and he’s not a guy who has to take his game to the next level (like the others listed). Just be what he is.
So those are my thoughts. Feel free to weigh in and vote in the poll.
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92 comments Add your comment
JSS
July 16th, 2009
6:45 am
Won’t happen… Jones will his requisite 15-20 games sometime during the 2nd half… Positions 3, 4, and 5 should have been Long relief, middle relief and set-up man… The bullpen is as key as better hitting… Selah!!!
By the way, when are you going to get on that Derek Smith story?
Antoine Walker
July 16th, 2009
7:04 am
If I had the money I would bet the Braves finish 3rd. JSS is right, the bullpen is the key. the way cox is using Moylan and a few others, they will need some fresh arms before the end of the season. blowing leads in the 7th and 8th innings are keeping the braves around .500
First Cav Major
July 16th, 2009
7:10 am
First, let me say that I have been a Braves’ fan since day one in Atlanta, but winning the division this year will never happen. There are too many holes in the line up. The problem now is that there are no talent waiting in the wings to help, thanks to trade for rent-a-players, It is time for Bobby Cox to retire. He is a great manager when there are $150 million worth of talent to pencil in, but terrible when actual mangement is required. Had Torre been manager in the 90’s, the Braves would have won a couple of more WS. I don’t understand the loyality to TP. He has obviously not been effective for the Braves hitters and as Frenchy proved, isn’t trusted for help. Well, the good news is that football season is only a month away, and Chippa can make that October 3rd golf date.
bob
July 16th, 2009
7:11 am
Bobby needs to be more agressive in the second half. Hit and run with McLouth and Prado( and Infante when he gets back). Got to manufacture some runs and not wait for the home run.
Gov. Clinton Tyree
July 16th, 2009
7:20 am
Chipper just looks kinda … old and tired. I don’t usually ascribe to those who claim to be able to judge bat speed (see David Ortiz in May), but his bat does look slow to me. He’s 37, don’t know how much longer he can swing that telephone pole he favors. And nobody’s pitched to him this year. I sure wouldn’t. Even though McCann is a very good hitter, I’d rather him hurt me than Chipper 100% of the time.
His defense has improved the last three weeks. Who knows what injuries he’s played through and when… he just needs to get it together, ’cause he’s been very ordinary this season and we need him to lead.
Acworth Don
July 16th, 2009
7:22 am
I like the choices and I like what I see from the new guys on the block too. Now while I’ll go with your choices I will add this thought….Bobby Cox simply must become more agressive with his team and allow more hit and runs, steals, and most of all….a real competition for who gets the call when we need a “closer!” Shuffel these guys around. Don’t bring in the same ol guy cause he always comes in here.
Gov. Clinton Tyree
July 16th, 2009
7:23 am
Despite this team’s obvious flaws, it should not be a .500 club. They have underachieved to this point. Any team with pitching like this should be a .550 club at least. Maybe now with KJ and JF gone, the offense can be more consistent and get on a little roll.
John OTC
July 16th, 2009
7:25 am
blah blah blag…choke
I love the Braves but the blinders are off. They aren’t going to the post season because they have no power where power should exist (outfield and 1st). Pitching and D are above average but….well we’ve all heard it before. I’ll watch them and support them and go to the games but this isn’t the year to print playoff tickets.
Hooter Girl
July 16th, 2009
7:26 am
Even a Hooter girl knows you can’t pitch the same guys 3 and 4 days in a row. Send Chipper over and I will get him straightened out. Of course he needs a little recuperation time after 3 straight himself.
UGA Fan
July 16th, 2009
7:38 am
Jeff, if Chipper is the most important player, then we are in big trouble. Everybody knows that at some point during the 2nd half, a DL stint is coming. Lets just face it, the man can’t stay healthy.
I still say that they need a big bat! A hitter to put in the cleanup spot that strikes fear in the opposing pitchers and until then, they will just remain at best, a third place team. They proved during the 15 year run that good pitching doesn’t always beat good hitting.
Oh yeah, one other thing they definitely need is a new manager, a new hitting coach, and yes, a new pitching coach. Lets just face it, THEY ARE DONE!
athensdawg
July 16th, 2009
7:42 am
we are still far far better off than we were in the days of mike lum, preston hannah, and rick matula.
be thankful.
ATLfan15
July 16th, 2009
7:45 am
I love the Braves….been a fan all my life, but the team looks mediocre at best this year. We can’t win 5 games in a row then go lose a series to a last place team like the Nats. Inconsistency is the word and they are defining it right now. I can only hope that they make a decent run in the second half, but the first 11-12 games will tell the story. I would bet on them being sellers if they can’t gain any ground in the division in the next two weeks. If only we had the offense to go with our much improved pitching staff.
Conservative Values
July 16th, 2009
7:48 am
If the braves want to really compete then they have to close the 90’s and retool. Chipper, Cox and Pendleton must be replaced with younger, more talented players. Yes Chipper is talented but hes slipping and hes out of the lineup more then hes in. He cant be counted on. When that happens (like Francoeur) you trade him or in Chippers case when you cant play the game anymore you might RETIRE?
At any rate, we have solid pitching but the pen is in question and the lineup can be as dead as it is deadly. Problem is it more dead then deadly. Mostly because Cox runs the utility players out there to give them the chance to play. Usually all at the same time and in a game that important to win. What can you do.
When management is in the aging process of forgetting what happen yesterday, and coaches cant seem to get through to players (Pendleton) and the team keeps players for nastalga (Chipper) you are going to lose. THis is a team and should be run for the entire 25 man roster, not one player who Cox seems to think will come out of it one of these days.
Play the game with the players who are getting the job done and to heck with playing favorites. Trading Francoeur will only show how awfull Pendleton really is. Frechy is going to light up like the 4th of July under a different hitting coach. Mark my words, Jeff will excell, the braves will die. You get what you pay for……………….
Bank Walker, Texas Ranger
July 16th, 2009
7:52 am
John OTC, you are totally right with one exception. Our defense is not above average. Chipper is below avg., Prado is way below avg. and Yunel is avg. at best. Our corner outfielders are below avg., Kotchman may be the only player above average and he swings like a girl. The Braves may end up with less than 150 HR’s and less than 50 SB. Got no power or speed. We may be the only 3 tool team in baseball.
hop
July 16th, 2009
7:59 am
CHIPPER is not the same player than even last year and he will continue to miss a number of games in the second half.
the braves need to be a seller and trade chiiper along with those other players who do not have it,and that might be a starting pitcher or two e.g. derek lowe.
this is the time to retool for 2010 and get the young players who will be the future.
the braves are not going to be in the playoff’s and i am so afraid they will make some awful trade and we lose even more youn tlaent!
no, i do not trust frank wrenn
Gov. Clinton Tyree
July 16th, 2009
8:00 am
Whoa, Bank. I looked at the ZR and other defensive metrics last week. Prado is slightly above average at second, way above average at first and third. McCann is above average, Ross way above average. Chipper and Yunel are both below average (because of errors, primarily), but both have cleaned up in the last two weeks. Church is also above average.
McLouth does not fare well in these defensive metrics, which does not comport with what my eyes tell me.
But Anderson – well, you got me there. I always said I’d take below average defense for a certain type of player in LF, but I was thinking more along the lines of Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell.
NCBravesFan
July 16th, 2009
8:07 am
I like where you’re going with this Jeff – but I’d rather Wren augment the offense/defense by working to fix the problems at 1B and RF (without mortgaging the future). I think that will help take a little pressure off the rest of the guys you listed, as well as the bullpen.
The BP is overworked not only because of poor management decisions this year, but also because we haven’t scored enough runs to allow our starters to go deeper into games. Score more runs, and the bullpen issues might actually improve as a result.
Nancy Reagan
July 16th, 2009
8:09 am
Baseball is America’s Grand Game, Not Football or Basketball.
Say “NO!” to Thugz.
MiltonDawg
July 16th, 2009
8:16 am
The upcoming homestand will tell us everything. If we can win 5 out of 8 or 6 out of 8..then maybe. All 5 of those players JS you mentioned absolutley need to get their butts in gear..NOW!! Perhaps Church will be our 2nd half “golden boy” ala Francouer but we shall see. Looking forward to seeing Omar back in the lineup.
Gov. Clinton Tyree
July 16th, 2009
8:21 am
Hop, you don’t trust Frank Wren? Why the he!! not? The guy’s rebuilt this team on the fly and done amazingly well. He’s brought in Jurrjens, McLouth, Lowe, Vazquez, Kawakami. Gotten rid of Glavine, Smoltz, Johnson and Francoeur. Cut our losses with Kotchman and Church. Held on to Hanson, Schafer, Freeman and Heyward.
If the team was playing as well as it should, he’d be exec of the year.
Jeff Schultz
July 16th, 2009
8:23 am
ANTOINE — I don’t think I want to take gambling advice from you.
BOB — Problems is Braves aren’t built for small ball and, as you know, Bobby’s never really been a hit/run manager.
HOOTER GIRL — Table 5 needs some wings.
JOHN OTC — Braves do NOT have an above average defense.
Michael D. Tippens
July 16th, 2009
8:23 am
Saying that Chipper needs to “drive in big runs because nobody else will” shows you’re not thinking carefully about what you say. There are several other Braves who can knock in the big runs, just don’t expect the same guy to do it every night.
The Braves have an igniter who’ll soon return from injury. They have made good-to-excellent additions to the lineup. They have a pitching staff capable of taking down the East.
Bill
July 16th, 2009
8:31 am
77-85
Shadetree
July 16th, 2009
8:33 am
Can somebody go back and see how games our bullpen really lost for us. Next can someone come up with our average with runners in scoring position.
I’m sick and tired of seeing Bennett, Norton and Reyes in the dugout. Dump these bums and bring in somebody that while they may not do any better certainly can’t do any worse.
I think I have the Escobar thing figured out. I think it’s a hispanic thing but I also think he’s looking at his pay and realizes he’s not getting what he thinks he deserves. I wonder what would happen if he was given a contract that would reflect his future. Pay the guy. I would be pissed too.
Richard Nieh
July 16th, 2009
8:42 am
I don’t think Chipper will hit much better than he is now. He is just simply hurting all the time. He is the leader of the team and try to play through pain but it is not helping the team.
However, Chipper is definitely the key of the offense. Even with small improvement on offense and last for 3 months. Braves can win 45 games no problem. Especially when you see Kawakami is getting used to MLB ball every outing, Vazquez and JJ are pitching so consistently, Lowe should have his usual great second half once again. Tommy Hanson though, either he is going to improve his SO ratio or he will start losing games. I really don’t mind Hanson’s outings, I treat every outing of his as a bonus and I hope he can keep his unbeaten streak until the end of the season.
Chris
July 16th, 2009
8:57 am
Great, thought-provoking blog, Jeff. I wish everybody knew what journalism entailed – skepticism, great reporting, and original ideas. You’ve done all three. Thanks.
I feel like Escobar is way more of a Phillie/Met than a Brave. But yeah – hard to give him up because of the bat and the arm. I do hope he grows up between now and 7:30 tonight.
I’m pumped for this series…I’ll be there Friday. First time I’ve ever seen a Braves-Mets game at The Ted. (Went to some at Shea in 2007, and we won two out of three. One of the most fun things to do as Braves fan is watch a game at Shea in which we destroy the Mets.)
woody
July 16th, 2009
8:59 am
Once again you are blabblering about the Braves yet again. So here’s a better topic..Let me know when you want to convert?
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-total-access/09000d5d811508fe/Best-fans
Juan
July 16th, 2009
9:09 am
Cox has never been able to manage the bullpen effectively, and if he knew how, we would at least be at .500 now. The hitting as you’ve highlighted with Chipper and McClouth is key, but bullpen utilization has to be up there, too.
Jorge
July 16th, 2009
9:10 am
And what’s up with Greg Norton being re-activated. Why do we just want an automatic out off the bench? That has to be an area of concern, too.
Bubba
July 16th, 2009
9:15 am
Discussion of the Braves success/failure starts and ends with the bullpen. Doesn’t matter if those 5 got supernova hot. If the bullpen can’t keep ‘em in the game, Chipper could hit .450 the rest of the season and it won’t matter. Unless the Braves can go into the 7th with a 9-0 lead, then maybe. But I won’t hold my breath.
Myth busted
July 16th, 2009
9:21 am
“Braves have an overworked bullpen”
Top 4 relievers (innings pitched):
Braves – 42, 42, 37, 34 (6th in MLB ERA – overall staff)
Dodgers – 57, 48, 41, 40 (2nd in MLB ERA – overall staff)
Phillies – 44, 44, 34, 32 (25th in MLB ERA – overall staff)
Cardinals – 41, 34, 33, 23 (4th in MLB ERA – overall staff)
Giants – 41, 39, 36, 34 (1st in MLB ERA – overall staff)
Cards seem to be the only ones noticeably different from anyone else. Also note, that, for reference, Javier Vasquez has thrown 119 innings.
All the unsubstantiated jabs at Bobby Cox are bugging me. The man’s not perfect, but if you’re going take jabs, back it up.
Perhaps you should just say our bullpen’s not very good, which it is not outside of Soriano.
Jeff Schultz
July 16th, 2009
9:23 am
Michael.D/Bill — I assume you two don’t hang together.
Richard — Injuries/Chipper has always been the x-factor. That’s what made his season last year so remarkable.
Chris — Thanks you, sir.
Agree on the bullpen issues. For what it’s worth, I’m not counting on Hudson being effective right away like everybody else is. But if he is, that enables Cox to move one of the back end starters to the bullpen, which would help.
Jeff Schultz
July 16th, 2009
9:24 am
Myth Busted: Dead on.
jimmya
July 16th, 2009
9:26 am
think back what did WREN have to give up to get vazquez what did he give up for mcclouth prospects prospects hes the onethat traded off the farm berret FIRE WRE NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GTDhoo
July 16th, 2009
9:27 am
Wow some people have awfully short memories. I read stuff like “Chipper is old and washed up, he can’t play anymore.” The guy won a batting title only a year ago! To say he’s washed up because he’s hovering around .300 instead of .400 is ridiculous.
I like what the Braves are doing right now, but I’m afraid this isn’t going to be their year. They definitely need some more consistent bats in the lineup. Kotchman is a waste of space at first. If they can keep the rotation intact, and pick up a big bat or two to fill the gaps in the off season. Next year will be their year. But this team is a .500 club and no trade or move is going to change that right now.
Chris
July 16th, 2009
9:31 am
When Huddy comes back, move Kawakami to the bullpen and move Medlen to…wherever he came from.
NC Braves Fan
July 16th, 2009
9:34 am
Myth Busted – some of what you say is true however if the Braves would score more runs, the starters (the acknowledged leaders of our staff) would be able to work deeper into games, and the suckier elements of the BP would be less exposed.
Also Gonzo was going pretty good there, but has pitched in a few laughers and has turned up with tendonitis (and a rising ERA).
A lot of the bullpen’s struggles key off the lack of offensive output.
Poorjeff
July 16th, 2009
9:35 am
Chipper is the most important player but its not going to happen this year. We can all wish, right?
Big Braves Fan
July 16th, 2009
9:36 am
The Braves are holding on to players like Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson as if they were the next wave of great players in the majors. The Braves are flawed but so are the other teams in the National League East. Yunel Escobar is a good shortstop with a great arm and he leading this team in hitting and rbis because others are struggling but by trading him is not going to make or break the Braves. He has missed alot of ballgames already as he did last year and the Braves are in the same spot in the standings as last year and the year before. Man up Braves management and make moves that is going to ignite your ball club and the city.
oldmike
July 16th, 2009
9:51 am
How many times do we read on these blogs the need for a new approach to the game via a new manager and hitting coach? LOTS!!! Unfortunately management thinks otherwise. So we are stuck with a 68 year old manager who may be great to play for but who is not wired to manage this team or any team the Braves will assemble over the next few years. He has never played an aggressive style of baseball. And the team drafts with blatant disregard to speed. We have no one that I’ve seen – other than Furcal – capable of stealing bases with any degree of proficiency. Maybe Blanco, but he can’t hit enough. And please have the starting pitchers go 7 or 8 innings a game. This quality start crap simply burns out relievers in lieu of building arm strength in your best pitchers. How about pitching one reliever 3-4 inning a game once every 3-4 days. Save your set up and save men for those true situations. Makes sense doesn’t it?
siskel_god
July 16th, 2009
10:13 am
Good article Jeff, I don’t disagree with anything you said. Chipper is definitely the key to this offense he has to play in as many games and hit one and a half times the homers in the second half. Getting Escobar healthy and in the 5th or 6th spot in that lineup every day is a close second, he is our best hitter this year plain and simple. He has the most rbi’s and the best average with risp, working mostly out of the second spot in the lineup. If Hudson comes back healthy and pitches out of the bullpen the rest of the year that will also shore up that deficiency. Conrad has been a pleasant surprise I hope he can keep it up and maybe when Omar gets back he can get hot again we’ll see. I think Church is all the help the Braves are going to get so we better when with what we got.
AlabamaBrave
July 16th, 2009
10:27 am
I agree Jeff that the NL East title is not in the cards this year. I especially like the point you made about McCann. It was spot on. He needs to keep doing what he is doing and the 5 you have listed do indeed need to step it up. Unfortunately, Chipper will probably tweak an eyelash and miss some games. I do have a couple of questions. 1. Will the Braves go ahead and try to lock up Soriano? 2. Will they try to trade Gonzo? Thank you in advance for your answer.
Hillbilly Deluxe
July 16th, 2009
10:34 am
It’s possible they can win it but highly unlikely.
Nate McLouth can steal some bases but on this team they play station to station baseball. I’ve always thought he was a good, solid player.
Retch
July 16th, 2009
10:47 am
Jeff, the big thing is, Chipper needs to hit for POWER. Eight HR in the second half won’t get it done. If he only hits 15 HR this year the Braves are toast!!
Pete Orr
July 16th, 2009
10:57 am
“The reason is, I don’t think McCann has to do anything different than what he’s doing now for the Braves to have a strong second half.”
ummm, his stats for the past 15 games…
12/56(.214) 0HRS 6RBI
JonathanC
July 16th, 2009
11:06 am
If this team could get a little consistent in the batter’s box, we would be fine. Everyone on this posts acts as if we are 15 games back! If we take three of four from the Mets, we will be at .500. It is not like the Phils are running away with anything. And it is really not the Phils that scare me. When the Mets start getting guys back…watch for them to make a run.
I would like for someone to give Cox a legit solution for our BP instead of just saying that he is misusing them!
Chipper has only missed 11 games this year…not too bad for him. This team can and will win the East!
Ramblin Wrecker
July 16th, 2009
11:19 am
Can’t say I disagree too much with what you say, except that part about McCann not having the power that Chipper Jones has. I think McCann possesses similar power capability to Chipper. McCann has 8 HR’s to Chipper’s 9 and is outslugging him .487 to .467. Chipper’s is on the decline and McCann’s is on the way up. Right now they’re in the same vicinity. Historically they both have shown the ability to slug well over .500 so I think both can make a significant contribution in the second half power wise.
Reid Adair
July 16th, 2009
11:19 am
Jeff, you’re right. They could … but they won’t. You are 100 percent correct about Lowe. He needs to step up and prove himself worthy of the money that Frank Wren gave him.
Wren is not going to be able to say, “Look! I did this, this and this … and we did it!” this year. I don’t know if he’ll be able to do it next year, either, without a significant upgrade to the offense.
Jeff Schultz
July 16th, 2009
11:50 am
CHRIS – And then Kawakami becomes the globe’s highest paid middle reliever!
SISKEL, BAMA— Thanx. But Bama I hope you’re not suggesting Chipper doesn’t play through injuries – he does. He’s just injured too often. … On Soriano and Gonzalez, I’d say you have it right. Not sure that will happen during the season though.
RAMBLIN’ — McCann has never hit more than 24 HRs in a season and he’s on pace for less than that. Chipper’s a far better HR hitter (at least when he’s healthy).
The A Bomb
July 16th, 2009
11:54 am
You failed to mention Moylan, or as I call him — MOYLANTA!
Good Moylan? We win games!
Bad Moylan with the breaking ball that slides into the righthanded batters box? Blown leads and losses.
He should be in the top 5 — no questions asked.