For Braves, beyond average might have to wait a year
If it seems Rafael Soriano is looking up for an answer, it's because nobody down here knows what to expect from the Braves.
It was 18 years ago Sunday when the Braves began to evolve into something beyond punch line and TBS filler. Lonnie Smith (reclamation project) hit two home runs. John Smoltz (2-11) shut down the St. Louis Cardinals. The Braves won, 6-2, and went on to complete a four-game series sweep, igniting an implausible 55-28 run after the All-Star break.
Nobody saw that coming.
Those same Braves completed their first half Sunday. They held a 7-3 lead in the seventh inning at Colorado but lost, 8-7. They enter the All-Star break two games under .500 – which for too long now has been the primary objective.
Nobody can know what’s coming. But at some point, the realization sets in: They’re just average.
When football teams are this inconsistent, it’s usually because of immaturity and emotional instability. Baseball teams tend to be less prone to emotional swings. It’s the game. When a team is so wildly inconsistent, it’s usually because this is what the talent and roster depth says it is.
The Braves have been fortunate because baseball is full of average teams these days, particularly in the National League East. The problem is they apparently woke up the one team they couldn’t afford to: Philadelphia is 9-1 since being swept at Turner Field. The Braves trail the incumbent champions by six games.
After three dead Octobers and declining win totals, there are reasons to believe the Braves could be headed in the right direction. But there are at least as many reasons to indicate they’re not there yet.
They broke camp in April thinking they were a playoff team. But three months into the season, they were still struggling with teams like the Orioles, Pirates and Reds. On June 27, they dropped to a season-worst six games below .500.
Then came the great tease: a win over Boston and a sweep of the Phillies.
It was a short parade.
Great teams – even just good teams — seize upon these opportunities. The Braves didn’t. They went to Washington and lost a series to the Nationals. If nothing else, it made the year for Nats president Stan Kasten. Until then, he had nothing to put in the team’s season highlight film.
The Braves are 5-5 since that Phillies series. As we’ve seen, 5-5 isn’t going to get it done.
This is where the Braves are in their development: They have one player (Brian McCann) in Tuesday’s All-Star Game. That had happened only once since 1992. Of course, before 1992, it happened all the time.
A six-game deficit with 74 games to play shouldn’t seem so daunting. But it is, given what the Braves have done and who they’re chasing.
In 1991, we saw a team grow up and grow together. We watched players who would become the core of a winning team for several Octobers to come. But in 2009, we watch this team and get motion sickness.
Cracks have been being spackled over as the season has gone on. Three expected members of the team’s projected core aren’t even on the roster: Jeff Francoeur – who shared the team’s media guide cover with McCann in 2007 as a sign of the franchise’s future — now plays for New York. Jordan Schafer, the planned future in center field, is in Gwinnett. So is the second baseman, Kelly Johnson.
Somebody torched the blueprint.
Of his team’s post-season chances, Braves general manager Frank Wren said the other day: “I think there’s no question that if we can get on a run, if we can become more consistent offensively, this team can compete.”
But every team can play the “if” game. And it doesn’t feel like 1991.
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179 comments Add your comment
Herschel Talker
July 12th, 2009
8:10 pm
Jeff – They are indeed an average team. They could make a nice run next year with the right additions, but the math doesn’t work this year. They cannot make up that many games against a superior team. And Frank Wreck would just mortgage the future to get it done. I don’t know why it’s so bad to just take a few lumps one year and retool stronger and better going forward.
Have a nice Tisha B’Av
nick manning
July 12th, 2009
8:12 pm
i can’t wait for jason hayward!
tralfaz
July 12th, 2009
8:19 pm
It would take some top rate leadership to take a team with this talent level to the playoffs. Unfortunately, the leadership (BC, TP, Chipper) is just as average as the rest of the team
kj
July 12th, 2009
8:22 pm
Wow… that’s the only word I can get out of my mouth right now… Wow…
Two things amaze me:
#1 Cox keeps putting Moylan in the game. He has Chris Reitsma’s gift for giving up runs and his time in Atlanta should be over.
#2 Our relief pitches continue to walk people.
Just sayin…
ChurchMan
July 12th, 2009
8:22 pm
Mediocre team defined:
“if we can get on a run”
No better run then sweep the first place team, but we all know what happened after that.
“if we can become more consistent offensively”
They outscored the Rockies 21-19 this series and yet they split.
1 All-Star. JJ this, and Soriano that aside the Braves themselves are 95% to blame for them having only 1 All Star.
It’s obviously going to take more than those two things to “compete” but if Wren can’t see that, they have about as much of a chance to compete this year as last years team did (20 games back and 18 under at the end).
Sonny Clusters
July 12th, 2009
8:30 pm
Jeff Schultz, we was glad to see you back. When we was playing ball together back in school Jeff was always the ladies man and he got to date the cheerleaders and sometimes the majorettes after the ballgame. That’s when we was playing football. When we was playing baseball together when we was back in school Jeff mostly dated regular girls because there wasnt any cheerleading going on and no twirling either for a baseball game. One time Jeff asked my sister out but I put a stop to that real quick. My sister is a lot like me but real pretty though she didnt make as good grades when we was in school. I think she was a little sweet on Jeff when we was playing ball together but she wouldnt let on and when he hit the long ball she would always jump up and down and Jeff waited for that because Sissy had some real big, er, she would always be real happy when he hit one out. I guess now that Jeff is in New York and hitting the ball so good up there that he’ll be signing on with the Dairy Queen like he did here with Delta. If Jeff keeps hitting like he did in the first two games he’s gonna get some serious money when they have to sign him but if he starts missing the ball again like he does so much then they’ll probably run him out of town and it wont be on Delta because Jeff dont work for them anymore since he quit hitting.
AlabamaBrave
July 12th, 2009
8:32 pm
Jeff, it looks like you might be right. It is looking like the sweep of the Phillies will be the high point of our season. I hope I am wrong.
Jeff Schultz
July 12th, 2009
8:33 pm
## Herschel: I will fast until they are in first place! Wait, on second thought …
## Tralfaz: Wow. Didn’t get to a Cox/Pendleton rip until the third comment. You guys are losing your touch.
## KJ — you’re right, especially about the walks. That should be verboten for relievers.
## Churchman… occurred to me also that they’re finally scoring runs but blow the lead. Assuming that’s not foreshadowing for the second half but you never know.
Homer
July 12th, 2009
8:34 pm
FIRE SCHULTZ!!!
Jeff Schultz
July 12th, 2009
8:34 pm
Sonny — I’m going to suggest you try a little more model airplane glue, then post again.
Ted
July 12th, 2009
8:36 pm
The team has solid starting pitching (something that has been lacking the last couple of years), and we get Hudson back in a couple of weeks. The middle relief has been scary, but the late inning relief has been superb.
The real problem is the defense and offense. This team has committed way too many errors, and not put enough runs on the board. I hate that Francouer had to be traded, but it wasn’t working for him here. How Church will perform is anyones guess.
The problem is that we only have McCan and Jones as home run threats, and Jones hasn’t been performing in the clutch as of late. Prado seems to be stepping it up, and if the rest of the team could do the same in the second half, there might be a run at a playoff position. But right now, it feels like I can hear the team already saying to itself “Wait until next year”.
DAVEinNEPA
July 12th, 2009
8:38 pm
I can give you the biggest reason we’re an average team.
We have a bonehead for a manager!! Why did he bring in a guy to pitch making his ML debut, in the bottom of the 9th with the score tied? How many of you watching or listening, recognized that as a recipe for disaster?
Guess Bobby didn’t want no extra inning game. He must ave had an appointment to keep.
AlabamaBrave
July 12th, 2009
8:38 pm
Jeff Schultz
July 12th, 2009
8:33 pm
The offensive signs are encouraging, but lets remember it is Coors Field and they only hit 1 HR. I will be more impressed if they can score 5 runs a game during a home stand.
Chop Suey
July 12th, 2009
8:39 pm
Whatever happened to Chop Chick? Did she get traded, too? I was sorta hoping I could be the new Chop Chick and all the AJC would have to do is change Chick to Suey and we’d be set. I am from Canton and that’s where all the opium warehouses were confiscated awhile back. I’m looking for a job and I know there must be some openings at the AJC. Jeff, you were going to set me up with Julia and then you disappeared on me. What’s up with that?
Your Pal,
Chop Suey
AlabamaBrave
July 12th, 2009
8:40 pm
Maybe encouraged instead of impressed would be a better choice of words.
bravefalconhawk
July 12th, 2009
8:40 pm
this team is way 2 inconsistent plain and simple…i guess we’re still in the playoff hunt but if phils pick up roy halladay its pretty much OVER
Sonny Clusters
July 12th, 2009
8:47 pm
When we was playing ball together back in school I was almost always on base when Jeff came up to bat and we had a little wager going on about whether he’d hit the ball and get me in or whether he’s strike out on sliders off the plate like he does all the time now. One time I had a little fun with Jeff and put a red eared slider in his pants pocket while his pants was in the locker. I figured a slider was about the worst thing that could happen to Jeff back then. Well, that red eared slider ate his way right through Jeff’s pants pocket while we was out on the field and when Jeff put his pants on after the game everybody could see his lucky underpants that he wore to get hits. It was the most embarrassing thing I think we ever went through when we was playing ball together back when we was in school together.
coachgb
July 12th, 2009
8:49 pm
The whole bunch has lost their mind! Bobby didn’t have anyone else to pitch at the end today because he has already overworked his bullpen to death, and this is with the starters doing much better than last year. Two guys coming off Tommy John surgery are amoung the leaders in apperances this year and why didn’t they put Javier on the DL so they could bring another pitcher up for this weekend? He wouldn’t miss but one start anyway with the off days coming up!
AlabamaBrave
July 12th, 2009
8:51 pm
Sonny, just say no buddy. Just say no.
Sonny Clusters
July 12th, 2009
8:52 pm
When we was in school together me and Jeff both wanted to either be a ball coach or work in a hardware store or be a journalist. I was the smart one so I planned to be the hardware man. Jeff would have been a ball coach but they wanted him to teach some classes on hygiene and manners. Jeff said if he had to learn all that he’d just as soon work for the paper. So, we was both studying to be journalists when Jeff got picked to play ball and I went to work at the plant and started getting all them great benefits and just couldn’t let it go. Otherwise, we might be writing in blue on here.
Kevin C
July 12th, 2009
8:58 pm
Bullpen is overworked, since Leo left we have missed the playoffs but the talent level is just not there. We are average at best with little to no power, average defensivley, and can not play small ball to win games.
Anyone else wonder in the last few years of the playoff run when our bullpen was lights out if some of those guys were on PEDs? Recover faster and pitch several days in a row.
bravefalconhawk
July 12th, 2009
9:00 pm
Yeah and Bobby Cox needs to bow out gracefully.I hate to say it but its time for Chipper to go too!! NOT cause his skills are declining but its just time for the Braves organization and fans to realize this isnt the 90’s anymore,maybe with all those faces gone we can get on with it…TP too bye bye
curtis jones
July 12th, 2009
9:00 pm
To me, the most amazing stat of the year is that Braves outfielders have hit 21 homers in 1,050 at-bats
Marshall
July 12th, 2009
9:02 pm
Jeff….Frank Wren and upper management are the problem. Wren said it in one statement…we can compete….bump that we want to win not just compete….we use to be america’s team….we now have lost our identity. We have a no show, no visible, ownership group. Outside chipper and McCann it is now who is who on the braves team. Only way out of this is from the top down. We must find our identity agian before we can get rid of the compete attitude.
Chappy Feathers, Baseball Activist
July 12th, 2009
9:02 pm
I have it on good authority that Bobby Cox is on a performance enhancing drug . . . Metamucil.
taxman kenneth
July 12th, 2009
9:03 pm
The braves to me are average at best and that cannot get it done in the division they are in especially when the Mets get all their players back and with the Phillies playing like they are. They simply don’t have the chemistry to get it done this year. No speed and no power will not win the division. With Chipper and Escobar needing medicare and no one to replace them in the lineup they are hopeless in thinking they can win a title this year. The Frenchy trade did not improve the team at all. I still think they could have got more for him than Church. By the way I think he has 4 hits for the Mets in 2 games. Not bad!
Doug Markham
July 12th, 2009
9:08 pm
Jeff,
I’m not among the Bobby Bashers. But could it be that sometimes–maybe more than usual this year–that our Hall of Fame coach is making mistakes. I see good starters, some pretty impressive relief from more than a couple of pitchers, and a strong bench. Maybe he best bench the Braves have had in the last decade plus. I note the lack of power, but the team we are chasing has to score a half dozen runs and more most of the time because of its terrible pitching. I think the Braves have a chance in the East, but I’m beginning to worry about decisions being made based on pitch counts and right handed/left handed hitters. Why doesn’t the staff at AJC talk more about this? I don’t want Bobby fired, but he ought to be questioned about his decisions—especially today.
tralfaz
July 12th, 2009
9:08 pm
“# Tralfaz: Wow. Didn’t get to a Cox/Pendleton rip until the third comment. You guys are losing your touch.”
You’re right, they’re all great, nothing is amiss, all is well, don’t know what I was thinking
G Man
July 12th, 2009
9:09 pm
What bothered me more than anything else today was when Bobby pulled Boone Logan after 1 out in the 7th. Boone was rolling and eating innings (albeit with some double play help) and he owned the first batter in the 7th. Everyone knew our bullpen was a bit thin today, especially with guys like Moylan and Acosta running on fumes. It seemed ideal – Boone would finish the 7th and we could surely find 6 outs with a 7 to 3 lead. Boone could then enjoy a rest filled All-Star break.
For some unexplained reason, Bobby pulls Boone and sticks in the right handed Acosta to face switch hitting Fowler. Perhaps Bobby saw some # somewhere that shows Fowler to be weaker against righties but sometimes you’ve just got to ride your horse. I had a bad feeling this decision was going to have a domino affect on the rest of the game. Unfortunately, I was right.
I like Bobby but my biggest problem with him over the years is his inability to know when to ride his horses. He often plays it simple when he should be creative and tinkers when he should just ride the horse.
That said, I’m beginning to think Shultzie is correct – we’re probably a season or two away.
Matt Winkeljohn
July 12th, 2009
9:12 pm
I think Sonny just about summed everything up. What more can be said or written?
Chad
July 12th, 2009
9:16 pm
Will somebody please start a FIREBOBBYCOX.com!
taxman kenneth
July 12th, 2009
9:18 pm
The entire braves outfield have hit only 21 home runs and Wren thinks they can compete. Compete with who? Certainly not the Mets and Phillies and the rest of the National League. I noticed tonight that Pujols has 32 home runs by himself and the entire outfield of a team trying to compete has only 21. What a joke!
Sonny Clusters
July 12th, 2009
9:19 pm
When we was playing ball together back in school we was always reading the paper and was always trying to find out what the sportswriters was saying about our chances for a state champion. They was always hanging out around the field and it was a little creepy but me and Jeff didnt mind all that much but we always told our little brothers and sisters to stay away from them and just let them work. Sometimes they’d write some good stories about how we’d play extra innings and Jeff would come in to relief pitch after he’s hit a homerun to put us ahead. I remember all that now and that’s the reason why we never paid for an ice cream all season.
Vince
July 12th, 2009
9:24 pm
I agree Jeff, this is not a playoff year for the Braves. They will finish 3rd or 4th in the division though I hate to predict it. Even though their starting pitching is superb, the bullpen is already showing signs of overuse. Gonzolaz & Moylan are showing the symptons first. The best reliever right now besides Soriano is O’Flaherty and they too are heading for the same fate. It’s not realistic for a a manager to believe that he can cut loose his starters after six innings and use the same 3 relievers in the 7th, 8th & 9th. You would need to rotate & replace from the minors better than that to make it work. The Braves also lack the consistent hitting to win 60% of their remaining games, which is about what they would have to do in order to have a shot for the playoffs. With all due to respect to Ryan Church who hasn’t had time to show us what he may be able to do, I don’t think that the Braves have an outfielder besides Nate McClouth who should/will be an everyday outfielder for the Braves next year. In other words since Jason Heyward is probably 2 years away from a starting slot I think that Frank Wren has a lot of work to do in the second half(trades) or in the off season
with regards to the outfield. But he was up to the task with the pitching last off season. And Omar Infante should be in the mix. I’ve been saying for months that Prado & Infante should be in the starting lineup everyday. With Freddie Freeman also probably 2 years away at 1st base, Wren could package Kotchman/ K. Johnson and Garrett Anderson(to the A.L. as a DH) and get something of value for the future. Next year the Braves could start Prado at 1st, Conrad at 2nd(he’s a switch hitter & is looking good), Escobar at SS and Chipper at 3rd, with Infante & Hernandez backing up on the infield, if Infante is not staring in the outfield. If we stand pat or improve our pitching and Wren gets a couple of big bats for the outfield we can compete for a playoff spot by next year.
Sonny Clusters
July 12th, 2009
9:32 pm
They was a contest awhile back at the AJC and they was looking for a conservative writer to write for them in the new AJC and I tried out and got on the short list but I wanted full time work and they only wanted me to work when I wasn’t already working at the plant. When we was playing ball together back in school I told Jeff and he told me that we was never going to have to work two shifts to get ‘er done. One shift is enough when you been a state champions. That’s why we was always sticking together when we was playing ball together back when we was in school. We was trying to help each other in the classroom so we could be success. We didn’t count on no sliders back then.
Jeff
July 12th, 2009
9:33 pm
is casy kotchman hurt?
AlabamaBrave
July 12th, 2009
9:35 pm
Jeff
July 12th, 2009
9:33 pm
is casy kotchman hurt?
He was sick
AlabamaBrave
July 12th, 2009
9:36 pm
Kotch is sick
Michael
July 12th, 2009
9:38 pm
As I think I’ve ranted before, this team lacks a big bopper. The last year Atlanta made the postseason was Andruw’s last year, right? Since then, Atlanta has either lacked enough starting pitching or a big stick. Chipper is struggling with power this year, but so is the whole team. There’s nobody on this team aside from Chipper who I see capable of hitting 30 homers in a year, although McLouth is on track for that — and hitting LEADOFF.
Bobby needs to revamp the lineup or get canned. McLouth doesn’t need to be leading off for the above reason. Move Prado up top, Escobar to 2, Chipper at 3, McLouth cleanup, then McCann, then insert your other outfielders and Kotchmann. If CK wasn’t doing a decent job at first, then I’d say try Barbaro Canizares as a cleanup hitter at first. But he needs to be getting ABs in Gwinnett. He may be a good future 1B on this club.
As far as Schafer, don’t expect anything from him. I have heard he’s quite the immature person, so don’t be shocked if he’s trade bait whenever he gets healthy.
Ed-Covington
July 12th, 2009
9:40 pm
Let’s see: Everyone wants to give congrats to FW for the moves he’s made. Well, he broke spring training convinced that the ABraves were a play-off team with KJ at 2nd, JS in CF and JF in RF (& Glavine as a starter later). The jury is still out on GA. Any business that got a third of their key personnel decisions wrong wouldn’t last long
The A Bomb
July 12th, 2009
9:41 pm
ATHLETES. . . You need ATHLETES. . . It may sound absurd, but look how Nyger Morgan has changed the Nationals’ outfield. He is an ATHLETE. Gant, Nixon, Sanders and Justice were ATHLETES. Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz were pitching ATHLETES.
Athleticism can take you a long, long way.
Jeff
July 12th, 2009
9:42 pm
ok thanks.since francoeur left he had 2 more hits today. wow!!!
Jeff Schultz
July 12th, 2009
9:44 pm
Curtis – I don’t see that ratio changing much the rest of the year.
Taxman – Unfortunately that’s most Wren could’ve gotten now, which us why I don’t see why the trade was made. Why not just wait until after the season when maybe a better pkg could be put together?
Sonny – I’m sure all the Dems were pulling for you as the AJC’s conservative columnist.
Jeff Schultz
July 12th, 2009
9:45 pm
Jeff (from Jeff, about Jeff) — Yes, Francoeur is 4-for-9 in two games as a Met. Oops.
Be-little, BeBOLD
July 12th, 2009
9:46 pm
Boneheaded Ol’ Donkey lost this game with his masterful handling of pitchers . . . yeah. “it just got away from us” alright when he pulled Logan after him striking out the first batter in the 7th!!! How stupid can one be when he has used up all his relievers by continually using the same guys day after day!!!
The A Bomb
July 12th, 2009
9:48 pm
If Dennis Green was to analyze the Braves, what would he say??????
“THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY ARE!!!!!!!!”
Pete Nose
July 12th, 2009
9:51 pm
Fire booby Cox.He never makes the right moves anymore and gives to many excuse’s
Ed-Covington
July 12th, 2009
9:54 pm
What Jeff? No love for Winklejohn?
The A Bomb
July 12th, 2009
9:57 pm
By the way Jeff, in 1991 something very improbable happened. The Braves were 9 1/2 out at the break. . . They swept St. Louis four while the Dodgers and Reds (both ahead of them) were swept four games each. They gained four games on two teams in four days.
Very doubtful we’ll see that again for awhile.
Bat Masterson
July 12th, 2009
10:02 pm
Yeah the braves are an average team. They have very good starting pitching, a decent bullpen. They are set at short, center field and catcher. Chipper should be good for a year or two more. After that just a bunch of has beens and never were’s. Oh well, there is always next year.