Face Off: Numbers say Braves can’t do it
Click on photo to read Mark Bradley's response
Oh, Mark. So quick to get drunk off two wins, aren’t we?
Welcome back to the Wednesday Face off. As usual, there are two sides to this debate: the right one and the wrong one, which Mr. Bradley will handle.
This week’s topic is the Braves: Can they win the National League East Division? Considering they have started this important 10-game home stand with two shutout wins, it’s easy to get deluded. And if they can just get 10 or 15 more games against Chien-Ming Wang (0-6, 11.20), this should be easy.
I still don't see anybody in the East beating this team.
But there are issues. The problem isn’t that the Braves are four games back of Philadelphia with 92 to go. The problem is having reasonable expectations of what they can do the rest of the season, given the team they have and the way they’ve generally played.
I used some of these numbers in a blog last week, but here’s the updated situation. Over the last 10 years, the N.L. East winner has averaged just over 95 wins (see the chart below). At 34-36, the Braves would need to go 61-31 the rest of the season to equal that. That’s a won-loss percentage of .663. If you prefer to use the Phillies’ 92-70 record last year as a gauge, the Braves would still need to go 58-34 (.630).
What we’re basically asked to believe is that everything we’ve seen for most of the first three months of the season — and to a degree several seasons just prior — is an aberration. But it isn’t. This is still a team in transition with significant issues. They’re not there yet.
Throwing everything else out the window, these are the Braves’ season winning percentages since going 101-61 (still only .623) in 2003 (chronologically): .593, .556, .488, .519, .444 and .478 (current).
You’re asking for is a relative 180.
Possible? Yes. Plausible? No.
The checklist the rest of the season for a division title is overwhelming. Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez would need to be lights out as starters, and Tim Hudson would need to come back and contribute significantly.
Remember, we’re talking potentially .630-plus baseball the rest of the season: You’ll need four strong starters.
The bullpen: It can’t falter.
The defense: It’s not getting better. Even Chipper Jones dropped a throw at third Tuesday night.
The offense: Jeff Francoeur (.246) is still a mess. Kelly Johnson (.138 in June, .222 overall) is worse. Nate McLouth was a nice pick up in center and seems to be coming around. Garret Anderson suddenly has a pulse (five-game hitting streak). Will that continue?
This isn’t a running team. They don’t play small ball (last in the league in stolen bases). They don’t even play big ball (12th in home runs). If the batting averages drop off, they’re sunk.
They’re not there yet.
We’re asking for too much.
Year East winner W Braves (34-36) need to go
2008 Philadelphia 92 58-34
2007 Philadelphia 89 55-37
2006 New York 97 63-29
2005 Atlanta 90 56-36
2004 Atlanta 96 62-30
2003 Atlanta 101 67-25
2002 Atlanta 101 67-25
2001 Atlanta 88 54-38
2000 Atlanta 95 61-31
1999 Atlanta 103 69-23
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
76 comments Add your comment
O'Brien
June 24th, 2009
2:15 pm
Jeff,
Too many things have to turn around for the Braves, and I dont think its likely (But I hope I’m wrong).
Based on the season Frenchy had last year, does anyone expect him to turn it around?
Chipper is also likely to miss a few games here and there, and Kelly Johnson has too many cold streaks.
Tommy Hanson and JJ have been good, but hitters will figure out Hanson after a few more starts, and JJ struggled down the stretch last year.
Plus the Mets and Phills might make a move at the deadline (I hope the Braves do too). But there are just too many unknowns/inconsistencies on this team.
matt6buckeye
June 24th, 2009
2:30 pm
Jeff,
With the Phillies pitching being as awful as it is and the Mets getting injured in their everyday lineup like the Braves did in their rotation last year, isn’t 88-74 a realistic division winning record? The Braves would only need to go 54-38 the rest of the way to equal that. Certainly that’s vastly better than their record so far, but its not exactly crazy to think the Braves, with the best rotation in the division by a mile, and an offense that just might be coming around (assuming GA continues like this and Bobby finally realizes Prado as the starting second baseman is the key to this season) could play solidly the rest of the season and reach 88 wins.
Brandon O
June 24th, 2009
2:37 pm
Jeff,
Your not talking straight. It looks like every team in the division is struggling. No matter what our record is it has to be better then other teams in NL East. I’d say 85-88 wins takes the division this year. What would Phillies or Mets have to finish to possibly get 92 wins at least .600 win pct. Not possible either with the Injuries, Records mean absolutly nothing espically last years or years before. Lets look at today 4 games back and 92 to play, we got plenty of time and hole lot of games against the NL east.
Mr. Wrestler #2
June 24th, 2009
2:38 pm
Looking around baseball for an upgrade at 1B, 2B or OF I don’t see a lot of realistic quality power upgrades. The Braves would be more able to upgrade with average or speed. Brian Roberts at 2B or Hunter Pence in the OF might be a good fit.
Gabron Salome
June 24th, 2009
2:42 pm
As bad as I hate it, I have to agree whole heartedly. Being a die hard fan, I dont like to ever throw my chips in half way thru the season. I see the same things you do, Our pitching looks awesome, during our run of division titles If we could hold a team to 4 runs you could chalk it up to a win. Nowadays you just cant say that. A year from now, Braves fans can rejoice because the team we’ve known for the past two decades will be back, and ready to go on another run. Be patient, they gave us a decade of winning we owe them that much.
heartofdarkness
June 24th, 2009
2:44 pm
Amend your hypothesis to assume 85 wins takes the East. Braves would have to play .555, which would mean the pitching would have to hold up at the present level, rather than revert to the inconsistencies the staff showed in April and May. If the lineup reverted to their mean statistical averages with their second half performance, I would think the probabilities would favor the Braves reaching 85 wins. What cannot be known, is what deals might be made between now and the trade deadline that alter the current balance within the division.
varodrunner
June 24th, 2009
2:55 pm
Tough to argue with you , so I won’t. But would you agree that Frenchy, Kelly, Garrett Anderson, Kotchman and our Center fielder (whoever fills the position at any given time) have been grossly underachieving? Tough to argue that they have been achieving what they are capable of for the last three years. We have seen brilliance from both Kelly and Frenchy. I will concede that it hasn’t been recent. But Frenchy has shown a slight turn in the right direction. He has looked as if he is putting the HR on the back burner at the present time and has been hitting harder balls. Even got a couple hits the other night. Garrett has shown some better hitting skills lately, although not against lefties. He should platoon with Diaz in LF. anyway, yada yada yada
The point is: If these underachieving MLB players start to only marginally play up to their expectations, with our pitching, we could do this. The Phillies and the Mets have had injuries this year, but both teams lack the pitching depth of the Braves. You might say that if the Braves played the rest of their games against Wang, theymight win, but another way to look a it is that they only needed ONE run last night because of our pitching.
Anything is possible, but I still have to sie with you. It doesn’t lok promising, but maybe, just maybe, the baseball GODS will shine on Hotlanta.
varodrunner
June 24th, 2009
2:59 pm
Also, like I said in another blog, this team began to demonstrate some necessary FIRE inthe last game against Boston and haven’t lost since that game. Again, only two games, but FIRE is one the most important deficiencies of the Braves. Maybe Bobby, Chipper and whoever else wants to step up and act as a leader on this team will keep the fire burning.
ESPN still likes Phillies, but everybody has issues in East | Jeff Schultz
June 24th, 2009
3:00 pm
[...] You know what stands out? Nobody seems to be terribly thrilled. (That said, I still don’t see the Braves winning the division. For my one-sided debate with Mark Bradley, click here for this week’s Wednesday Face Off.) [...]
Hillbilly Deluxe
June 24th, 2009
3:19 pm
Can they do it? They can. Will they do it? It’s unlikely.
I see the Wild Card coming out of the Central Division.
Why did you and MB use less flattering pics of each other for the link than what appears at the top of your columns? (Inquiring minds want to know.)
aahz
June 24th, 2009
4:17 pm
MtnDawg: the reason any team (not just the Braves) has relatively high two-out run production is partly because with two outs you’re more likely to have men on base.
That said, the Braves’ two-out run production is remarkably high.
Pretend Hero
June 24th, 2009
4:29 pm
While I happen to agree with you that they wont win the division, your argument is quite flawed. The number of wins of each division winner does not take into account that some of those teams won by several games.
Year – Margin of Victory
2008 3
2007 1
2006 12
2005 2
2004 10
2003 10
2002 19
2001 2
So, as someone above said, Figures dont lie, but liars figure. Your argument is VERY misleading, bordering on blatant misdirection. Its honestly something a journalist would normally try to avoid I would think.
dawg22
June 24th, 2009
4:30 pm
mark is a jerk. lets go braves ass a bat we are in it. LOSER
dawg22
June 24th, 2009
4:30 pm
add a bat i mean
gboh
June 24th, 2009
4:31 pm
Jeff, while your point is well taken, using past records really doesn’t seem all the useful. Going on the 95 win theory that would require the Phillies to go 58-36 or the Mets 60-32 the rest of the way. Do you really think either of those teams has any better chance of doing that than the Braves? I seriously doubt it. This looks to be an 85 win year for the division which is mediocre at best all the way through.
dawg22
June 24th, 2009
4:32 pm
forget my other comment jeff schult is a jerk, add a bat and we are in it. we have to third best pitching opp average in the MlB
Floyd
June 24th, 2009
4:33 pm
Atlanta is four games out and its pitching is vastly superior to both the Mets and Phils. Isn’t that really all we need to know?
The rest is just details, Jeff.
And, while your numbers are correct, just keep in mind that past performance is never indicative of future results. At this rate, the winner of the NL East may land at 84-78. There is absolutely no indication that the Phils or Mets are going to run away with this thing – those two clubs have at least as many problems as Atlanta, if not more. For my money, I’ll take the team with more pitching…that team is the Braves.
Skram30082
June 24th, 2009
5:47 pm
Hey, Jeff, I’m not ready to give up on this season yet. Just as you can cite stats to back up your position, check this out: in ‘91, ‘92 and ‘93 (if I remember correctly), the Braves had a stretch after the All-Star break where they played .700 or higher ball. So, it can be done, just like it was in in those years. They also had a lot of luck in ‘91 (the 2 teams in front of them tanked right after the All-Star break), and NOBODY expected them to win the division.
And in ‘93, they absolutely ran down the Giants after being 10 games back. But, in no way does this team compare to the ‘93 team.
So there.
SthrnSrvy
June 24th, 2009
6:03 pm
I see them advancing simply because the rest of the East appears to be lagging. Phillies (as noted), Mets with the nagging injuries, Marlins will get back to being the Marlins, and Washington (need i say anymore) Jeff, good with the numbers, statistics are annoying. There still has to be a game played. Just ask Team USA.
Mitch C
June 24th, 2009
6:10 pm
Jeff, let me play devil’s advocate here for a minute. I’m not saying that the Braves can win the division, or even get the wild card, because, with their inconsistent play this season, there’s not a guarantee of either. That having been said.
The Mets and Phillies are hardly setting the world on fire. Philly has no pitching to speak of, and the Mets have huge, huge injury problems. (Delgado, Beltran, and Reyes out leaves them with little more than a little league lineup).
Granted, those three could come back at some point, and the Mets could make a run, but, of the two teams, it would seem more likely that Philly could get hot, if their pitching improves.
Say, for example, the Mets, Braves, and Phillies all stay around 500 into the trade deadline, and the Braves are within two to four games of the division. Then, say, for example, we do what Mark Bradley suggested, and swap Vazquez for Dunn, and Hudson comes back, and gives us some solid starts? The Cardinals won the WS in 2006 with 84 wins The 1973 Mets won.. 82 games, and got within one game of winning the World Series. With the way the Mets, Phillies, and Braves are playing, the NL East might be won with 85 games. The Braves can definitely do that, especially if we trade for Dunn.
All we have to do is hang around, and not fall too far back. Play a bit above 500 ball, win a few series here and there, and hope that NY or Philly stays mediocre. This division is very winnable for us, especially with the Mets problems, and Philly’s terrible pitching.
tke443
June 24th, 2009
6:10 pm
I don’t think it is any easier for one of the other teams to win it in the division. The Phillies would have to go 58-31 to get to 95 wins this season. That seems higly unlikely as weill. In fact the whole division seems like a mess and nobody is acting much like they want to win the division. I think if any team in the division can ring up 2 stellar weeks then they might take the division.
Jeff R
June 24th, 2009
6:12 pm
I’m inclined to agree with Jeff: the Bravos have a tough row to hoe. Even if it takes “only” 90 games to win the division, the Braves are going to find it difficult getting there.
In fact, the Braves may end up having a better shot at the division title than the wild card. Hard to say what will happen in the NL West, where the Dodgers winning percentage is high, giving the Rockies and Giants a pretty tall ceiling.
NO MORE BOBBY
June 24th, 2009
6:21 pm
If we can win 7 of our next 10 then I say we have a chance. Anything less than 7 wins and its a no. We cant keep counting on the Phils and Mets to lose. At some point one of those teams will get hot. Why dont we beat them to it?
the real Andy
June 24th, 2009
6:33 pm
yeah, i have a hard time believing anybody in this division wins 95, or maybe even 90. this might be an 88-wins situation. and i do believe this team could go 54-38.
ray k.
June 24th, 2009
8:49 pm
I’m sorry? Bases loaded, tie game, one of the game’s premiere hitters at the plate, and Bobby brings in… Jeff… Be– I can’t even finish that sentence.
MOYLAN! JUST BRING IN MOYLAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ShandyKoofaksh
June 25th, 2009
3:42 am
I am not really statistically sound enough to refute the stats AS LISTED herein. It would seem , to a lay person , that the chart is simply a more obtuse means for the writer to get across the point that we dominated fourteen consecutive division contests and as bad as we want those kinda seasons again it isn’t going to be a quick ‘back to normal’ fix for our beloved /beleaguered Braves. This is still a work in progress that needs 1-2 more solid building and incorporating seasons to have a tight little return to better days.
But, lesser streaks have occurred to take a team places……