How the GOP gerrymandered itself into trouble
Political analyst Charlie Cook, writing in National Journal, muses about gerrymandering and the Republicans’ difficulty in breaking out of their demographic cul de sac in a way that I hadn’t thought of before.
As Cook notes, the GOP got 48 percent of the House vote in 2012 yet still won 54 percent of House seats, indicating that gerrymandering did produce benefits for the party. But ….
But could the Republicans’ arguably rigged House majority actually be a curse disguised as a blessing? It’s an interesting question. They clearly did everything they could to purge Democratic voters from their districts ahead of 2012, no matter whether those voters were white, black, Hispanic, left-handed, or right-minded—just as Democrats would have done had the roles been reversed. But in the process of quarantining Democrats, Republicans effectively purged millions of minority voters from their own districts, and that should raise a warning flag. By drawing themselves into safe, lily-white strongholds, have Republicans inadvertently boxed themselves into an alternate universe that bears little resemblance to the rest of the country?
When I read that paragraph, my mind jumped immediately to this photo compilation of Georgia’s GOP Senate caucus that I ran last month:
(Since then, yet another white male has been added to that caucus in a special election.)
As Cook points out, the degree of gerrymandering that produces outcomes like that pictured above means that even if Republicans wanted to reach out to minority voters, they can’t. They have few if any such minorities in their districts. By making their districts whiter and whiter, they have essentially trapped themselves.
As Cook notes:
“For example, using only 2010 census data, Rep. Daniel Webster’s Central Florida district jumped from 57 percent white to 66 percent white; Rep. Pete Sessions’s Dallas-area district leaped from 42 percent to 53 percent white; and Rep. Pat Tiberi’s Central Ohio district soared from 68 percent to 88 percent white. All three Republicans had relatively close races in the last decade but won easily in 2012.”
So imagine yourself as a Republican exploring whether to moderate your position on immigration. As part of the political calculation, you understand that you might lose some votes on the right, but you would hope to pick up some votes among Hispanics. However, if you have no Hispanic Americans in your district, that option is foreclosed. You make yourselves more vulnerable on the right, with little chance of being rewarded for it elsewhere.
U.S. Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Colo
A great case in point would be Mike Coffman, a Republican congressman from Colorado. Two years ago, Coffman bitterly opposed the DREAM Act, calling it a “nightmare,” and championed the use of English-only ballots. His district, with only 8 percent of its population Hispanic, had previously elected immigration extremist Tom Tancredo.
However, redistricting has changed that suburban Denver district. Coffman now represents a district that is 20 percent Hispanic, and suddenly, he not only supports the DREAM Act, he supports a path to legal status as well. He may even be open to allowing a path to citizenship.
“My district dramatically changed,” the congressman told POLITICO. “In the district I had until last month, there wasn’t a significant Hispanic population, and with the population I had, immigration wasn’t a significant issue. In the district I have now, there is a significant Hispanic population. And meeting with those people really put a face on it.”
I’ll leave it to the voters of Coffman’s district to decide the sincerity of his conversion. But in his district as previously drawn, it is unlikely that he could have made that transformation even if he wanted to do so. Like his party, he was trapped in a political version of a gated community, a sanctuary that also serves as a cell.
– Jay Bookman
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131 comments Add your comment
Erwin's cat
March 15th, 2013
3:19 pm
Can’t we continue to do both?
He is trying to get off oil
Sure we can do both…but when it’s economically feasible….don’t get me wrong, I’m all for research but it will be a long while before it pays off…it’s a great long view…but a very long view at best…I’d rather we invest in research that will have a more immediate ROI
Jackie
March 15th, 2013
3:21 pm
The problem, as I see it, is those who vote for people that are currently in many of those legislators. To make this unlawful action stand, it requires a Governor and Supreme Court of that state to participate in the rape of the Constitution.
barking frog
March 15th, 2013
3:22 pm
For years every minority in the country could be ignored
and still win elections, except for one, women. Women
are a legally created minority that is actually a majority.
Republicans were able to divide that minority for a long
time on moral grounds but that has changed. They
cannot gerrymander that away so they have lost the
ladies and with them the political center for a long time.
Without the political center they cannot win the Presidency.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
March 15th, 2013
3:23 pm
I’d rather we invest in research that will have a more immediate ROI
The same excuse used 40 years ago when the President Carter warned about petro dollars funding terrorists
RexDogma
March 15th, 2013
3:24 pm
Our State voted say 53 to 47 Romney vs Obama. That should be our Legislature make up. Not this ridiculous 78 to 22 % rep vs Dem.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
March 15th, 2013
3:25 pm
“then” President Carter
TBS
March 15th, 2013
3:25 pm
EC
Good point. I would just counter that as long as fossil fuels and natural gas are more affordable, the reasoning will always be to kick it down the road for another time.
I’m fully aware that some of the decisions that have been made regarding “new / cleaner energy” were not the most prudent to say the least, however between private industry and government I am sure we have enough horse and brainpower in this country to do both in a sensible manner.
Whether it gets done in a sensible manner is surely another story indeed……
TBS
March 15th, 2013
3:27 pm
“Our State voted say 53 to 47 Romney vs Obama. That should be our Legislature make up. Not this ridiculous 78 to 22 % rep vs Dem”
Nope. The state should be what it is because the voters of this state wanted it that way. Granted the Republicans could be doing a better job on the demographic trends that even Stevie Wonder can see, but the make up currently is what the voters voted for at this time.
TaxPayer
March 15th, 2013
3:29 pm
That bunch of faces looks inbred.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
March 15th, 2013
3:34 pm
Muzik SHEETZ!
alittlecommonsense
March 15th, 2013
3:38 pm
HDB: 1) Would the Voting Rights Act have been necessary if conservatives hadn’t done so much to stymie the black political voice…past AND present!!??
Without debating your premise, it’s an irrelevant question. I wasn’t voicing an opinion on the voting rights act pro or con. I was just stating that it contributes to gerrymandering.
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
March 15th, 2013
3:40 pm
Well, dang! We finally get a little power in this state and take over the U.S. House and these people are blasting us for keeping in power by using a few tricks. And they want us to let more of Those People get elected. Well, I got news for you: Those People never voted for us for some reason. Even tho we had Parts of the Stove Herman Cain running—you know. Lifter Leg and Poker.
There’s just no satisfying some people. Bring on the music. I can see right now this post ain’t going no place good for us.
alittlecommonsense
March 15th, 2013
3:42 pm
“Our State voted say 53 to 47 Romney vs Obama. That should be our Legislature make up. Not this ridiculous 78 to 22 % rep vs Dem”
And the country voted 51% Obama, 49% Romney. So I think Romney should be president 49% of the time.
Erwin's cat
March 15th, 2013
3:50 pm
The same excuse used 40 years ago when the President Carter warned about petro dollars funding terrorists
so he created the department of energy..which so far has only created a couple hundred thousand jobs in DC at a cost of several billion dollars…I get what you guys are saying, but alternative energy will only become affordable through the free market IMHO…like I said, I’m just looking for a better ROI from our tax dollars…besides isn’t this corporate welfare?
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
March 15th, 2013
4:01 pm
…but alternative energy will only become affordable through the free market IMHO…
Germany says, “What?”
GT
March 15th, 2013
4:09 pm
Gerrymandering is like segregation it makes a mockery of the whole democratic function of our government. It always amazes me that the right wants smaller government but what little government they leave they want to control completely with a minority position. In other words it is not small government they want it is control of government with a small minority. The communist operate somewhat the same, one party system.
Simple Truths
March 15th, 2013
4:10 pm
I have a solution to the gerrymandering. Form a team of me, Peadawg, Brosephus, and Redneck Convert to draw all district boundaries.
I’ll supply the map.
Peadawg supplies the ruler
Brosephus supplies a compass.
Redneck provides the beer.
A good time will be had by all.
Welcome to the Occupation
March 15th, 2013
4:19 pm
Oh my god is conservatism a cult of imbeciles.
That’s all.
That Black Guy
March 15th, 2013
4:43 pm
DannyX
March 15th, 2013
2:34 pm
Its amazing how these blogs can go berserk with screaming about blacks only voting for blacks, which of course is far from the truth. Its obvious white Republicans only vote for whites.
Hey Republicans, why do you only vote for white people?
_______________________________________________
Rubio, Cruz, West, JC Watts says “Hey, watch where you swing that broad brush”
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
March 15th, 2013
4:55 pm
Rubio, Cruz, West, JC Watts says “Hey, watch where you swing that broad brush”
“Excuse me while I whip this out.”
– Thomas “Bart” Jefferson
LUCIFER
March 15th, 2013
5:57 pm
You reap what you sow.
Fred ™
March 15th, 2013
7:50 pm
JC Watts says: He was later hired as a political commentator by CNN and following the 2006 House election, Watts argued the Republican party had lost seats because it failed to address the needs of urban areas and did not offer a positive message. He stated: “We lost our way, pure and simple.”
In 2008, Watts announced he was developing a cable news network with the help of Comcast, focusing on a black audience,and that he considered voting for Barack Obama, criticizing the Republican party for not practicing outreach to the black community.
vinny
March 16th, 2013
2:48 am
Welcome to the weenie blog- Let the bedwetting begin!!
Fred
March 16th, 2013
10:57 am
Poor Bookman. Still bellyaching about the GOP controlled house. The liberal utopia is so close yet so far away. Dems have no chance at regaining the house and you fruits on the left know it. If you take liberal bastions such as California and New York out of the equation Republicans have a lead in house votes of almost 55%. So there. Your stats are debunked and useless because like most lib’s you have no problem with certain states dictating what happens in the rest of the country. By the way. Who has the most Senators that are minorities? The GOP. Why is it the dems have no minority leaders within there party when they are certainly in the majority? Remember obama only got 39% of the white vote. One would think the dem party would be dominated by minorities being in charge except for of course his token role in the White House.
Fred
March 16th, 2013
10:58 am
There. Fixed it… LOL….
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
March 16th, 2013
11:42 am
Welcome to the Occupation:
Oh my GOD is the dem party full of old white men. Reid, Durbin, Leahy, Franken, and Hoyer. Do they have any young minority leaders except for the White House puppet of course.
Welcome to the Occupation
March 16th, 2013
12:45 pm
Kamchak: “Oh my GOD is the dem party full of old white men. Reid, Durbin, Leahy, Franken, and Hoyer”
That all you can come up with to scour the Democrats?
Man, I can do better than that with both hands tied behind my back.
The Democrats are a complete and utter fraud, led by the biggest fraud of all, Obama. Coming up with things to flay them with isn’t exactly hard.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
March 16th, 2013
12:57 pm
Welcome to the Occupation:
I agree the dem party is a complete fraud. Especially to minorities. Its sad that they want to keep them down by handing out freebies instead of encouraging hard work for their rewards. I got a feeling Hispanic Americans are going to catch on since their traditional values align much more with Republicans than dems. But you must admit on a national level there’s not a single minority candidate in site for the dems.
Welcome to the Occupation
March 16th, 2013
1:36 pm
Kamchak, We agree that the Democratic party is a fraud, but coming from opposite directions. I feel that way because it is a party of big business and Wall Street big finance which for that very reason cannot afford to be any more honest about its real objectives than the GOP can, but for electoral purposes must pose as acting in the interests of the middle class ( it doesn’t ever bother to appeal directly to the poor any more, American politics being so far to the right now that it goes without saying that the poor don’t matter so aren’t worth risking backlash by speaking up for).
But in Barack Obama the financiers who run the Democratic party have hit the jackpot. He has been the absolutely heaven-sent solution for them, having flawlessly executed his role as the Democratic “adult in the room”, with its arm constantly being twisted, to the “stonewalling” GOP. The whole thing is just theater of course, as both “sides” essentially agree on 98% of the austerity agenda which is just now getting ramped up for full implementation. And the biggest boon of all with Barack Obama, the maraschino cherry, is that in one stroke he has managed to neutralize the one group that has traditionally been the biggest thorn in the side of the establishment and the engine of social protest and change — the African American community — who now have been effectively rendered mute and inert, unable or unwilling to mount any challenge to policies that would have had them in upheaval under a Republican president but is now acquiesced to passively because of the black man in the White House.
It’s a stroke of genius on the ruling class’ part, one that has worked out surely beyond its wildest dreams. A win-win scenario for them almost beyond belief.
So if you think they will not be trying to repeat that formula again in the future — whether it’s in Cory Booker or Juan Castro — you’ve very mistaken.
Catlady
March 17th, 2013
6:48 pm
I am absolutely astounded that there is only one female face! Where are the women? At home baking cookies?
David Tanner
March 22nd, 2013
11:20 am
“I’ll leave it to the voters of Coffman’s district to decide the sincerity of his conversion.”
What an odd statement. Was the same standard used when Barack Obama’s view on gay marriage “evolved?”
Maybe Coffman should be commended for actually representing the views of his district –the old one from Jan. 2009 to Jan. 2013 — and the new one from Jan 2013 to present. It is refreshing to see an elected official actually working for his constituents and not being an ideolgue no matter what the make up of his constituency is.