Next six months may redefine Washington
Maybe I’m wrong — it has certainly been known to happen — but I’m thinking that these next six months could prove to be the most interesting and consequential six months of political theater seen in Washington in a long time. In fact, in terms of melodrama and conflict, it may rival or even exceed the 1995 standoff between President Bill Clinton and the Gingrich Republicans.
The recently concluded 112th Congress resolved nothing. As rough as it seemed at times, it proved to be two years of posturing between partners who weren’t quite confident enough to push things to conclusion. Members of both parties lacked both the courage to cut a big deal and the guts to have a knock-down, drag-out fight about it.
But the 113th Congress may be different. Explosive issues that have been put off time and time again — including immigration reform and entitlement spending — can’t be postponed much longer. Partisan and personal resentments that have long simmered seem ready to come to full boil. Confrontation is in the air — between Republicans and Democrats, between the House and Senate, between Congress and the president, between red state and blue state and even within the two political parties.
For example, I’d give House Speaker John Boehner a 50/50 chance of still holding that position come July, and that may be optimistic. His departure could come in any number of ways, from an internal caucus rebellion to a voluntary resignation in frustration. That’s because the man has been handed an impossible job, trapped between his constitutional obligation as speaker to make government work, at least at some basic level, and a Republican caucus that believes it has much to gain politically and in policy by ensuring that government falters.
As events play out, you may begin to see fractures emerge within the Democratic Party as well. For years, the antics and extremism of their Republican colleagues have united Democrats and allowed them to paper over divisions within their own ranks. They haven’t had to make any hard decisions as a party, and that may change in the months ahead, particularly if President Obama reaches some kind of deal with Republicans on the budget. Because as any student of political history knows, unity has always been a rare and temporary phenomenon with Democrats.
This all sounds a bit dangerous, and it is. Conventional wisdom holds that bitter confrontation is something best avoided in politics, and that compromise and bipartisanship are better models for good governance. Most of the time, that conventional wisdom is probably correct. But I’m not sure that’s the case under current circumstances.
At its most basic, politics is a process by which theories are tested and realities are sifted from illusions. It is disciplined by failure. Politics is also a crudely Darwinian process. At some point, you win or you lose. Decisions get made and problems get solved — one way or the other — when you have clear lines of authority and power. Once those things have been established, you have the ground rules that make bipartisanship and compromise possible.
Such lines do not exist within the rambunctious House Republican caucus. They do not exist in the relationship between House Republicans and the rest of the constitutional structure in Washington, and that explains a lot about the system’s dysfunction. But given the important battles that loom, and the apparently growing hunger for confrontation in some quarters, they may become a lot more clear.
– Jay Bookman
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569 comments Add your comment
HDB
January 7th, 2013
1:58 pm
“Your mistake, libs, is assuming all of the military are mind dumb robots who only do what their told. That would be a big mistake of an assumption.”
You better look at the UCMJ again…..only in EXTRAORDINARY circumstances would a soldier/sailor/airman/marine be prosecuted for not following orders….but an Article 92 is no fun for military personnel to deal with!!
Oscar
January 7th, 2013
1:59 pm
We have not normalized perversion. Dogs and cows are ssttill legally protected as are dead people. And so are chidren uner the age of consent.
Welcome to the Occupation
January 7th, 2013
1:59 pm
RB from Gwinnett: ” The double bonus of them being taxpaying citizens is the illegals will have no more need to be here and go home”
Double benefit? So their being gone is by itself a benefit.
Noted.
Mick
January 7th, 2013
2:01 pm
One thing is for sure; summer has returned to south florida. It is in the 80’s right now but should be a perfect low 70’s by kickoff. There are a few rain clouds lurking but I think they will disapate by the evening…
stands for decibels
January 7th, 2013
2:01 pm
No one wants to turn their backs on the unemployed, but it sems fair to ask at what point do never ending benefits become welfare.
at the risk of sounding nitpicky, those benefits aren’t “never ending.” They do run out. A quick look shows that, apparently, in California alone, there are nearly a million people whose benefits have run out.
http://www.edd.ca.gov/unemployment/Federal_Unemployment_Insurance_Extensions.htm
Brosephus™: "Team Gump will prevail over Team Rudy"
January 7th, 2013
2:03 pm
Mick
I like your outlook, but I’m going to be cautiously optimistic about tonight. I gotta make one run to the store to ensure I have enough beer to make it through the game though. I’ll either be celebrating or drowning sorrows late tonight.
stands for decibels
January 7th, 2013
2:03 pm
We have not normalized perversion.
Then how do you account for the GOP hanging on to the reins of power in the House of Representatives?
The other half of your brain.
January 7th, 2013
2:06 pm
USinUK – not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)
January 7th, 2013
11:51 am
Kam – “Yummy republican cookies.”
made with real republicans?
There are probably a lot of Republicans on here that would like you to eat them.
Oscar
January 7th, 2013
2:07 pm
If the Tide shows up and plays weel I don’t see them having any problem. But , , ,
Oscar
January 7th, 2013
2:07 pm
plays well
Granny Godzilla
January 7th, 2013
2:08 pm
Go Irish!
Recliner-gating at Granny’s tonight.
Home made pulled pork for the SEC fans
and
Corned Beef for the supporters of God’s team.
and nachos…..cause in football they go with everything.
Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...
January 7th, 2013
2:09 pm
Peter
January 7th, 2013
12:00 pm
“so we should just let farmers crops die on the vine..”
So if we offer amnesty, then farmers are going to lose all their crops? Help me understand that math..
Erwin's cat
January 7th, 2013
2:12 pm
I like Bama, but I’d take ND and 9 1/2 points
Erwin's cat
January 7th, 2013
2:13 pm
Corned Beef for the supporters of God’s team.
BYU’s playing?
RB from Gwinnett
January 7th, 2013
2:14 pm
“Double benefit? So their being gone is by itself a benefit. ”
You must think they pay cash for their hospital bill when they show up for service with no insurance. And they pay taxes to support the schools their kids attend at $9K+ each. Are you normally happy about paying for those services or are you pretending to be because it’s the liberal way?
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
January 7th, 2013
2:16 pm
I like Bama, but I’d take ND and 9 1/2 points
Pats by 3.
Granny Godzilla
January 7th, 2013
2:16 pm
Erwins cat
Sure
with Joseph “the revelation” Smith playing QB.
Brosephus™: "Team Gump will prevail over Team Rudy"
January 7th, 2013
2:17 pm
GG
You were my favorite granny until that first line…
Granny Godzilla
January 7th, 2013
2:21 pm
Bro,
Sorry, but after the magical nights on the lake with one of Ara’s boys in the late 70’s ….
My heart belongs to ND.
stands for decibels
January 7th, 2013
2:23 pm
They still playing that
slaveNFL farm-team football? when is that over?Brosephus™: "Team Gump will prevail over Team Rudy"
January 7th, 2013
2:25 pm
GG
Understandable, but it’s because of those same boys from the early 70’s that ND must go down tonight.
Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...
January 7th, 2013
2:29 pm
BRO
I just don’t see if being really close….from every aspect, excepting some of the emotional, ND comes up short. I bet that kid Golston (sp?) gets pulled again at some point. UA will double team the big guy and blitz heavy and often with packages this kid didn’t know existed…
ND has a chance if they can stop run in 4th quarter and get a handful of turnovers….
JamVet
January 7th, 2013
2:30 pm
Pats by 3.
And Romney in a landslide!
Roll Tide!
Thulsa Doom
January 7th, 2013
2:31 pm
“Neither is the fact that use of a single data point = dishonesty.”- Joe Mama
More BSing from Joe. A single data point? I stated it was the lowest labor force participation rate in 30 years-since 1981 to be exact. So that 30 year time frame automatically encompasses a great deal of data points- especially if the govt posts these numbers monthly or at least quarterly.
So if that’s about 30 years give or take and lets say that there are 12 months in each year in which stats are published we then have roughly 360 data points over the last 30 years for you to compare with the data point I presented. What is it that your mind can’t seem to understand about this?
Sometimes you get so mixed up in your tap dance routine that you just end up spouting irrelevant nonsensical crap like you did just now. Jeez
Granny Godzilla
January 7th, 2013
2:33 pm
Bro….
Don’t tell me you were on the lake too?
You devil you!
Thulsa Doom
January 7th, 2013
2:35 pm
JamVet,
I’m glad that you can appreciate a dynasty. You should given Nebraska’s mid 90s run. If we win tonight then that would make it just 3 dynasties to win 3 ncs in 4 years in the past 50-60 years. OU in the 50s, NU in the 90s, and Bama if we pull it off tonight. That’s very select company there.
Brosephus™: "Team Gump will prevail over Team Rudy"
January 7th, 2013
2:42 pm
GG
Nah, I wasn’t on the lake. I was born 6 months after the first ND/Bama matchup.
the cat
January 7th, 2013
2:42 pm
I’m continually amazed at the folks rooting for college football teams that obviously never went to college and most likely barely graduated high school.
Brosephus™: "Team Gump will prevail over Team Rudy"
January 7th, 2013
2:45 pm
I’m continually amazed at the folks rooting for college football teams that obviously never went to college and most likely barely graduated high school.
I’m continually amazed at the dumbassery that people put on display here for all to see.
Dharma Bum
January 7th, 2013
2:47 pm
Look for more of the same.
The U.S. Congress reminds me of many of the students I went to classes with in college… wait until the absolute last minute and then churn out an absolute piece of crap to turn in.
Granny Godzilla
January 7th, 2013
2:48 pm
the cat
January 7th, 2013
2:42 pm
I’m continually amazed at the folks rooting for college football teams that obviously never went to college and most likely barely graduated high school
.
.
.
My little grandson is continually amazed by everything too.
.
Thulsa Doom
January 7th, 2013
2:48 pm
the cat must be an MIT graduate. And a mind reader too since he automatically knows who went to college and who didn’t. Amazing that he knows all that just by blogging.
Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...
January 7th, 2013
2:50 pm
Whoever puts stock in the unemployment numbers used as favorable talking points are puppets..the real story is what’s in Table B…trend is horrific…
Soothsayer
January 7th, 2013
2:51 pm
“I’m continually amazed at the folks rooting for college football teams that obviously never went to college and most likely barely graduated high school.”
As I recall, Redneck Convert once made a similar observation about Georgia football fans. He said that most of them ain’t never seen the inside of a college.
‘Course, you’d have to ask him personally, I’m just quotin’ from memory.
Brosephus™: "Team Gump will prevail over Team Rudy"
January 7th, 2013
2:51 pm
Doom
I’d guess that the cat went to Auburn…
Joe Hussein Mama
January 7th, 2013
2:52 pm
Doom — “More BSing from Joe. A single data point? I stated it was the lowest labor force participation rate in 30 years-since 1981 to be exact. So that 30 year time frame automatically encompasses a great deal of data points- especially if the govt posts these numbers monthly or at least quarterly.”
Yes, a single data point. Doesn’t matter if it’s labor PAR rate, raw unemployment or whatever. Any stat you choose, it’s demonstrative of dishonesty on your part. There’s absolutely nothing to defend about *either* Bush’s or Obama’s jobs record, your pathetic repeated attempts included.
“So if that’s about 30 years give or take and lets say that there are 12 months in each year in which stats are published we then have roughly 360 data points over the last 30 years for you to compare with the data point I presented. What is it that your mind can’t seem to understand about this?”
What *your* mind can’t seem to understand is that both Bush’s *and* Obama’s records on employment and job creation suck. Ergo, you’re just spinning your wheels here.
“Sometimes you get so mixed up in your tap dance routine that you just end up spouting irrelevant nonsensical crap like you did just now. Jeez.”
And sometimes your penchant for lies and dishonesty get so powerful that you simply forget that you already agreed to the one-number-equals-lying position I outlined earlier.
If you were smart, you’d be worth a damn. If you were *honest* as well you might actually be worth having around.
the cat
January 7th, 2013
2:53 pm
Oh-it is very easy to know which bloggers on here never went to college. You know who you are……and so do we.
Also, the big ole pickup trucks barreling down the highway with the driver spewing tobacco juice out the window, beer cans in the bed, and Georgia football sticker on the window. Hilarious stuff.
stands for decibels
January 7th, 2013
2:53 pm
The Husker who’s Due sheetz.
Thulsa Doom
January 7th, 2013
2:54 pm
Oscar,
I agree. And there is that big but….
If we don’t turn the ball over I just don’t see how Notre Dame can possibly win. The only loss and the only close games we had were games where we had more turnovers than the opponent. In the A&M game we turned it over 3 times alone while A&M never turned it over. We turned it over more against UGA and LSU but still managed to prevail. Only way I can see ND winning is if we are at least -2 in turnovers against them.
Oscar
January 7th, 2013
2:54 pm
Bum – Sounds like you must have known me in college. Stay up all night typing and turn it in in the morning.
Williebkind
January 7th, 2013
2:55 pm
“Under Bush, private employment shrank by 673,000 jobs, federal employment grew by 50,000 jobs, and government employment grew by 1,753,000 jobs.”
More liberal math using psuedo numbers.
Thulsa Doom
January 7th, 2013
2:56 pm
“Also, the big ole pickup trucks barreling down the highway with the driver spewing tobacco juice out the window, beer cans in the bed, and Georgia football sticker on the window. Hilarious stuff.”
Looks like the cat likes his better than thou stereotypes of rural whites.
Oscar
January 7th, 2013
2:57 pm
Cat – It might surprise you how well some of those pickup truck driver have done.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
January 7th, 2013
2:57 pm
Hagel SHEETZ!
JamVet
January 7th, 2013
2:57 pm
Doomy, true dat.
But the Irish also won three in four years – 1946, 47 and 49.
And if the Huskers had not missed a makeable field goal with one second left at the end of the 1994 Orange Bowl vs. FSU, it would have been four titles in five years. (I know, I know, If my aunt had…. she’d be my uncle!)
So here’s to a well played game between the Papists and Baptists!
And to my sanity during the LONG, dark days between now and August 31, when the Wyoming Cowboys play in Lincoln! GO BIG RED!
BTW, my prediction for tonight: Bama – 31, ND 17.
td
January 7th, 2013
3:01 pm
Joe Hussein Mama
January 7th, 2013
2:52 pm
“What *your* mind can’t seem to understand is that both Bush’s *and* Obama’s records on employment and job creation suck. Ergo, you’re just spinning your wheels here.”
Say it ain’t so Joe!!! I can not believe you are on a blog saying Bush’s job creation record was dismal when for 7 1/2 years of him being in office the unemployment rate was less the 5% and the government considers 5% as FULL EMPLOYMENT.
Brosephus™: "Team Gump will prevail over Team Rudy"
January 7th, 2013
3:01 pm
More liberal math using psuedo numbers.
Williebkind calling the National Review liberal…..
Priceless!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_Kh7nLplWo
RB from Gwinnett
January 7th, 2013
3:01 pm
“Sometimes you get so mixed up in your tap dance routine that you just end up spouting irrelevant nonsensical crap like you did just now. Jeez”
Amen to that, brother!!!
td
January 7th, 2013
3:04 pm
The national Championship was settled during the SEC Championship game. Alabama is going to handle ND easily tonight. I agree with Bro on the score tide 31-17 winner.
RB from Gwinnett
January 7th, 2013
3:05 pm
TD, “Say it ain’t so Joe!!! I can not believe you are on a blog saying Bush’s job creation record was dismal when for 7 1/2 years of him being in office the unemployment rate was less the 5% and the government considers 5% as FULL EMPLOYMENT.”
They only want to look at the beginning number vs. the ending number and pay no attention to anything that happened in between. It fits their agenda better that way. They can’t even pinpoint anything Bush did that caused the economy to collapse, but just toss ‘em another cookie and they’ll shut up for a while.
Williebkind
January 7th, 2013
3:06 pm
Do you people really believe bloggers got to youtube and other sites caused you have something cute up your sleeve?
More liberal math using psuedo numbers.
Williebkind calling the National Review liberal…..
Priceless!!!!!!”
I am practicing drive-by’s! They seem to work pretty good.
“
Thulsa Doom
January 7th, 2013
3:09 pm
“Yes, a single data point. Doesn’t matter if it’s labor PAR rate, raw unemployment or whatever. Any stat you choose, it’s demonstrative of dishonesty on your part.”
Joe Mama,
Sorry Joe but my statement includes all the other various data points in by virtue of stating “in the last 30 years”. The fact that 360 data points or so aren’t specifically stated for the sake of brevity doesn’t mean that they aren’t there. And if you have a problem with the data point or points then you could bring up some data points of your own in the last 30 years to defeat my argument. But you can’t. So you don’t.
Instead you go into some absurd semantics and tap dancing routine because you got hammered yet again.
Your attempt to try and bend and twist things to suit your completely made up argument about dishonesty is pure pathetic and sad. But not unexpected from you.
Sometimes I can’t figure out if you’re just dishonest or stupid. Or both. And no. Its not a false binary. A very true binary indeed.
Joe is probably about to blow a gasket. Someone watch out for this liberal fainting goat and make sure he has a soft landing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGz97dxGHV8
Brosephus™: "Team Gump will prevail over Team Rudy"
January 7th, 2013
3:10 pm
Do you people really believe bloggers got to youtube and other sites caused[sic] you have something cute up your sleeve?
Nope. We know that some people are fact adverse and refuse to click on ANY link to avoid facing them. LOL!!! You, sir, are simply one who refuses to click on anything to avoid being proven to be wrong.
Thanks for proving the point once again. So gullible and easy….
Thulsa Doom
January 7th, 2013
3:19 pm
RB from Gwinnett,
Its the same ole BS from Joe Mama. I make a statement that the labor force participation rate is the lowest in 30 years and he comes back with some nonsense about using a single data point.
He either isn’t smart enough to realize that there are all sorts of data points involved in those 30 years or he is loathe to expand and use data points going back to when we started using the stat to begin with. He won’t do that though because he knows that by any data set including going back to when we started keeping records on the labor force participation rate that the curret rate is at a very low rate given historical records.
Matter of fact in the link it states that the labor force participation rate for men is at an alltime low since we started keeping records. So no set of data points is going to change that. Joe mama knows that. But rather than acknowledge this he would rather go on a campaign of accusations. Ironical considering his intellectual dishonesty on this point alone.
Thulsa Doom
January 7th, 2013
3:22 pm
td,
I don’t think it’ll be easy. ND is tough as hell on defense and their O-line is physical as well. We’re close on our predictions. I’m just going with a little lower scoring is all. I’m predicting 23-10 Bama. Hope I’m right.
Tom Middleton
January 7th, 2013
3:27 pm
The missing component in the American political system, Jay, has been the American people willing to pay attention on a week-to-week, day-by-day basis as necessary, instead of waiting till the last week or two before an election when both parties can lie like Romney. (Man that one about the Jeep jobs leaving town was a doosey, wasn’t it?)
Well, we’re not quite there yet but we’re doing a lot better, and are a lot closer than anytime in the past and willing to take control. That’ll stop the Washington shenanigans once and for all, dad burn it, or I will eat my tri-cornered, moderate Founders’ hat!
Joe Hussein Mama
January 7th, 2013
3:34 pm
td — “Say it ain’t so Joe!!! I can not believe you are on a blog saying Bush’s job creation record was dismal when for 7 1/2 years of him being in office the unemployment rate was less the 5% and the government considers 5% as FULL EMPLOYMENT.”
Once again, people who look only to one stat — like you and like Doom — are either deluded, fooling themselves or are being willfully dishonest.
Joe Hussein Mama
January 7th, 2013
3:36 pm
Doom — “Joe Mama, Sorry Joe but my statement includes all the other various data points in by virtue of stating “in the last 30 years”.
Sorry, Chimpy, but we’ve had this out repeatedly and you just don’t get traction. When you’d like to admit that both Obama and Bush suck for job creation, then we can have an actual discussion.
Until then, you’re just being dishonest again.
“Instead you go into some absurd semantics and tap dancing routine because you got hammered yet again.”
Son, you’ve never “hammered” me and you never will. But don’t let go of that dream.
“Your attempt to try and bend and twist things to suit your completely made up argument about dishonesty is pure pathetic and sad.”
Said the master of the dishonest arts — Doom.
Joe Hussein Mama
January 7th, 2013
3:38 pm
RB — “Amen to that, brother!!!”
If you had anything more than ‘fat kids’ and ‘cookies,’ people might pay attention to you, RB.
As it is, you’re nothing more than the mascot around here lately.
Back in your cage.
Christian Conservative
January 7th, 2013
3:38 pm
Brosephus™: “Team Gump will prevail over Team Rudy”
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Christian Conservative
That’s the link you wanted to post. When you manipulate the time frame, the link becomes useless. If you look long term, you’ll notice that labor force participation peaked around 1998 and has been decreasing every since then. So, the fact that it is still decreasing under Obama is nothing new.
The time frame is not manipulated. The work force participation rate was dropped two full points since Oblama assumed office. This number is in direct relation to the unemployment rate dropping. I realize facts are hard for libs to understand but this is black and white…
RB from Gwinnett
January 7th, 2013
3:38 pm
Doom, “Joe mama knows that. But rather than acknowledge this he would rather go on a campaign of accusations. Ironical considering his intellectual dishonesty on this point alone.”
And that’s all you’ll ever get from him. That’s why I just quit responding to his posts. There’s no point in debating anything with a childish individual who has no qualms about lying, parsing words, whatever, to avoid admitting he’s wrong. In short, he’s a waste of time.
Williebkind
January 7th, 2013
3:40 pm
“Thanks for proving the point once again. So gullible and easy….”
Liberals make me laugh.
Joe Hussein Mama
January 7th, 2013
3:42 pm
Doom — “Its the same ole BS from Joe Mama. I make a statement that the labor force participation rate is the lowest in 30 years and he comes back with some nonsense about using a single data point.”
I’ve been telling Doom for a year and a half now that the job creation records of both Bush and Obama just plain suck, and he can’t bring himself to agree with me. He keeps trying to somehow demonstrate that employment under Bush was incredibly great and that the huge mass of job losses we suffered under Bush didn’t *really* happen.
It’s actually pretty funny watching Doom argue about things I never said and try to prove things that never happened. It’s like watching a dog chase its tail, but even a dog is smart enough to stop after a few minutes.
Doomy likes to chase his tail for a year and a half he do. With no signs of stopping.
Joe Hussein Mama
January 7th, 2013
3:42 pm
RB — “And that’s all you’ll ever get from him. That’s why I just quit responding to his posts. There’s no point in debating anything with a childish individual who has no qualms about lying, parsing words, whatever, to avoid admitting he’s wrong. In short, he’s a waste of time.”
Hurry up and get my fleet fueling figures, Chimpy. (laughing)
Brosephus™: "Team Gump will prevail over Team Rudy"
January 7th, 2013
3:45 pm
Christian Conservative @ 3:38
It appears that YOU can not understand facts. My post to you was to provide the link to the numbers. When you go into that link and change the years, it changes the link. Therefore, manipulating the time frame makes the link unusable.
Damn, think for once dude. Not every thing posted at you is an attack or an attempt to prove you wrong. Geez!!! Contrary to what you think of yourself, you’re not worth spending all the time to prove you wrong. I was actually trying to help you out with your busted links, but if you don’t want help, then do it yourself next time.
Brosephus™: "Team Gump will prevail over Team Rudy"
January 7th, 2013
3:56 pm
Williebkind
If being a conservative means I have to act as big of an @$$hat as you do, then I’ll be a liberal all day every day. Unfortunately for you and Christian Conservative, neither of yout get to define my political leaning. So, your attempts to label me as “Liberal” as some form of mockery simply shows you to be the jackass you are.
Joe Hussein Mama
January 7th, 2013
4:00 pm
RB — “There’s no point in debating anything with a childish individual who has no qualms about lying, parsing words, whatever, to avoid admitting he’s wrong.”
Just FYI, RB, this is why no one talks to YOU any more. All you’ve got is bleating about fat kids and cookies. (laughing, pointing)
Joel Edge
January 8th, 2013
6:27 am
“unity has always been a rare and temporary phenomenon with Democrats.”
I always viewed the Dem party and their minions as a pretty much a top-down lock-step organization.
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot52
January 8th, 2013
11:33 am
Careful, Jay – you’ve heard of the “Friedman Unit”, right? Sounds an awful lot like that, even though you have good points here …