GOP gambled on a fiscal crisis, and are losing that gamble
Republicans in Washington took a gamble — a wise gamble, they thought at the time. Believing that Barack Obama was vulnerable and that control of the Senate was well within their grasp, they put off tough negotiations on tax and budget issues until after the 2012 elections, believing that they would then have the momentum, the votes and the power to remake the federal government as they saw fit.
They lost that bet, and they’re now having to come to grips with the consequences. The fiscal crisis that they sought has now arrived, and they find themselves at a significant political disadvantage. The results of a new ABC News/Washington Post poll demonstrate why:
By overwhelming margins, Americans support the Democratic position of raising taxes on those making $250,000 and more. (And let’s remember, the proposed increase is hardly draconian. For a couple with $350,000 in taxable income, it would represent a tax increase of $4,600, or 1.3 percent of their income.)
By even larger margins, Americans reject the conservative option of raising the age at which Americans are eligible for Medicare coverage. And while those numbers tell us a lot about why Republicans are having such a hard time selling their argument, worse news lurks deeper in the bowels of that poll:
Even among self-described conservatives, 47 percent support raising taxes on those Americans doing best in this economy. Among those who call themselves very conservative, the number supporting that tax increase is 45 percent. Americans making $100,000 or more support higher taxes on the wealthy by a 15-point margin. Washington Republicans may be playing to the most vocal portion of their base on this issue, but for everybody else, this is a loser.
Raising the Medicare-eligibility age draws even stronger across-the-board rejection. In fact, Republicans and the “very conservative” reject it by the same two-to-one margin as the rest of America. If Republicans in Congress want to make that the hill on which they choose to fight, good luck to them.
The argument in favor of raising the eligibility age of Medicare and Social Security is two-fold. One is purely financial — by putting off the date on which people are eligible, taxpayers save a lot of money. The second is based on the premise that American lifespans are getting longer, which in turn allows us to push the retirement age off.
However, while that is true for upper-income Americans, it is much less true for those on the lower half of the income distribution scale.
Source: http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/workingpapers/wp108.html
For whatever reason, less affluent Americans have not seen the large improvement in lifespan enjoyed by their countrymen. That’s due in part to the more physically demanding nature of the jobs they often fill, in part to less access to health care and in part to lifestyle differences. Whatever the reason, the differential is significant. Lower-income Americans — in most cases people who have worked hard all of their lives — arrive at age 65 in worse physical shape than their counterparts, and for them, deferring retirement is a real hardship.
And as the poll above demonstrates, many in that situation are probably conservative Republican voters.
– Jay Bookman
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432 comments Add your comment
Erwin's cat
November 28th, 2012
5:13 pm
I’m not sure but I think he’s asking where does the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles come from.
thin air…taxes are not a zero sum game
Joe Hussein Mama
November 28th, 2012
5:15 pm
N. Yobinnes — “Joe, I’m not sure but I think he’s asking where does the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles come from.”
If that’s what he’s asking, it’s a fair question. Then again, where did the $6K Hummer/SUV credit come from?
FWIW, I have no problem subsidizing consumer purchase of hybrid and/or alternative fuel vehicles. In fact, I think there’s an outfit in Marietta that will trick out your Prius with solar panels (to trickle-charge the battery when you’re parked), but I have no idea how much they want for that.
Nunna Yobinnes
November 28th, 2012
5:16 pm
Well, the recession started only about two months *after* Bush was elected.
Joe Hussein Mama
November 28th, 2012
5:16 pm
N. Yobinnes — “Thanks Joe. What colors do they come in? Meh, black is always an elegant look for an automobile.”
For a roadster? My wife wants a fire-engine red convertible one.
How about something spicy, like a snazzy gold or a spicy orange?
Nunna Yobinnes
November 28th, 2012
5:18 pm
I just want to know if there are some modifications that will make a Prius accelerate like a Mustang GT or Camaro SS.
Nunna Yobinnes
November 28th, 2012
5:18 pm
I just want to know if there are some modifications that will make a Prius accelerate like a Mustang GT or Camaro SS.
Brosephus™
November 28th, 2012
5:18 pm
Redcoat
If I were responsible for crafting the plan, I would begin the phasing out of ALL tax cuts that have been enacted in this century. I would raise them at a steady rate over 5 years with the top bracket starting the first year, and then I would begin the next bracket the following year. That way, there are no surprises as to tax rates for the next decade.
For spending, I would phase in cuts across the board to coincide with increases in private sector spending. The primary reason spending shot up was because private sector spending collapsed. As the private sector decides to quit being wussies, there is less need for government spending. To aid in determining where cuts should come from, I would legislate a top to bottom detailed accounting review to account for every single penny spent by the government. I’m sure there would be sizable reductions to be found even before any program is tweaked.
After all that, then I would tackle the tax code and other things
Oscar
November 28th, 2012
5:19 pm
Joe, I’m not sure but I think he’s asking where does the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles come from.
_____
I think Santa keeps that money at the north pole with the other toys and brings it to you on Christmas Eve.
AmericaShrugged
November 28th, 2012
5:20 pm
JHM – Now you’re losing me. Invading Iraq was terrible but the surge was a success? And Obama’s surge in Afghanistan, that’s a success too? Billions of dollars and hundreds of lives for what? Lasting peace and freindship with a 12th century country that doesn’t have anything we need or want to begin with? News flash – they still hate us and the taliban and al queda are still out there.
I think there’s an argument to be made that over the last 11 years we’ve created more anti-American terrorists than we’ve killed. As you wisely pointed out, no one likes to be occupied.
The world is now one small place. It’s like 7 billion living in this big apartment complex. One of our neighbor’s (more than one actually) apartments is infested with cockroaches. They keep coming into our apartment and wreaking havoc. Killing the cockroaches in our apartment doesn’t stop the infestation, they just keep coming. We really don’t want to break into the neighbor’s and kill all the cockroaches so we go to the landlord (the UN) They say they’ll put a notice (sanction) up on the neighbor’s door.
that’s where we’re at. Only it’s worse because if we leave the cockroaches alone long enough they’ll develop super powers (nuclear weapons) and instead of being a nuisance they’ll be a real threat to our very existence.
I say we kick down the wall and RAID all of ‘em. man, woman and child cockroach before they develop super powers.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
November 28th, 2012
5:21 pm
I say we kick down the wall and RAID all of ‘em. man, woman and child cockroach before they develop super powers.
There’s your sign.
Joe Hussein Mama
November 28th, 2012
5:22 pm
N. Yobinnes — “I just want to know if there are some modifications that will make a Prius accelerate like a Mustang GT or Camaro SS.”
Have you ever driven one? It’s weird; the electric motor gets you started, but at a certain point (or if you try to accelerate faster than the electrics can handle), you’ll feel the gas motor kick in to assist. If you’re driving slowly down a residential street, depending on the battery charge, the gas motor might not kick on at all and you go the whole way on electricity alone.
I think that Tesla roadster’s got the acceleration you want, though. I want mine in a royal blue.
Oscar
November 28th, 2012
5:22 pm
AmericaShrugged – Luckily, no one is listening to you.
Nunna Yobinnes
November 28th, 2012
5:23 pm
A lot of the super heroes got their super powers from being nuked. However, that didn’t seem to work out too well for Hiroshima, Nagasaki and Chernobyl residents.
Joe Hussein Mama
November 28th, 2012
5:23 pm
Oscar, heads up from last night. The direct tax info you gave me was partially incorrect.
Here’s the short scoop:
Article I, Section 9, Clause 4:
No Capitation, or other direct, Tax shall be laid, unless in proportion to the Census or Enumeration herein before directed to be taken.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixteenth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
So direct taxation is *limited,* but not unConstitutional in and of itself.
GT
November 28th, 2012
5:25 pm
The Republican has proven that they defy even the theory of a broken clock being right twice a day. The problem with compromising with these people is they are uncommonly wrong all the time. The opportunity to win an election has never been easier than it was this time around, yet the Republicans lost. They isolated on problems with absolutely no solutions and half the time the problems they isolated on were not even issues to the country. This is such an obsolete movement that finds its numbers stinking by the hour.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
November 28th, 2012
5:26 pm
Lottery SHEETZ!
Nunna Yobinnes
November 28th, 2012
5:26 pm
No, never driven one. I see 0-60 in 11 seconds (for a Prius), and lose interest in a hurry. Tesla does perform similar to a “muscle car”, but they cost a lot more. I think you can get a Tesla with only a 140 mile range for high $50’s, but that still a bit much for me. I put on too many miles too soon.
Oscar
November 28th, 2012
5:27 pm
Joe, I knew that was how it read. Never understood the Census or Enumeration part. But I knew they had to pass the 16th amendment to implement the income tax.
Joe Hussein Mama
November 28th, 2012
5:29 pm
A. Shrugged — “JHM – Now you’re losing me. Invading Iraq was terrible but the surge was a success?”
Yes. A war, stupidly entered into, can still contain tactical victories. I’m not blind to the military dimension of our actions on the ground over there.
“And Obama’s surge in Afghanistan, that’s a success too?”
Making it possible for us to disengage after getting OBL? I’d call that successful.
“Billions of dollars and hundreds of lives for what? Lasting peace and freindship with a 12th century country that doesn’t have anything we need or want to begin with?”
They had OBL in 2001. That’s all I needed to know.
“News flash – they still hate us and the taliban and al queda are still out there.”
News flash — if you want to declare war on an ideology, count me out. I keep my feet firmly on the ground.
“I think there’s an argument to be made that over the last 11 years we’ve created more anti-American terrorists than we’ve killed. As you wisely pointed out, no one likes to be occupied.
The world is now one small place. It’s like 7 billion living in this big apartment complex. One of our neighbor’s (more than one actually) apartments is infested with cockroaches. They keep coming into our apartment and wreaking havoc. Killing the cockroaches in our apartment doesn’t stop the infestation, they just keep coming. We really don’t want to break into the neighbor’s and kill all the cockroaches so we go to the landlord (the UN) They say they’ll put a notice (sanction) up on the neighbor’s door.”
The fact that our neighbor has cockroaches does not give us the right to break in and deal with them — in his apartment — as we please.
“that’s where we’re at. Only it’s worse because if we leave the cockroaches alone long enough they’ll develop super powers (nuclear weapons) and instead of being a nuisance they’ll be a real threat to our very existence.”
Funny how the North Koreans managed to develop nukes during all this and y’all don’t say BOO about that.
“I say we kick down the wall and RAID all of ‘em. man, woman and child cockroach before they develop super powers.”
I say you need methadone, a court-ordered commitment and some physical restraints.
Logical Dude
November 28th, 2012
5:29 pm
Although you used to be able to buy a 100k Tesla, those roadsters are now SOLD OUT.
You can reserve (for $5000) a Sedan that in total costs 57,400 (or 49,900 after 7500 tax credit). This lower cost sedan is related to the high performance sedan that has won:
Motor Trend Car of the Year
Automobile Magazine Care of the Year
Yahoo! Auto Car of the Year
Among others.
Plus you NEVER need to put gasoline into the car. EVER.
Sheesh, and people complain about a tax credit on these? I’d rather have a tax credit that comes back to me for saving oil than giving a corporate tax subsidy to the oil and gas companies.
http://www.teslamotors.com
My next car, once I can afford it
Joe Hussein Mama
November 28th, 2012
5:30 pm
Okay, I’m out. All be well and drive safely.
Nunna Yobinnes
November 28th, 2012
5:32 pm
Logical – the $57k car has a range of 140 miles. To get a range of 265 miles, it’ll cost ya $100k+.
Oscar
November 28th, 2012
5:33 pm
I think a silver one would be nice.
Logical Dude
November 28th, 2012
5:38 pm
Nunna,
well, for the Signature Performance edition, yes, you’re looking at 100K plus.
But the 85KW version starts at 69,000 (or 76,600 before the tax credit).
http://www.teslamotors.com/models/options
I’d rather have a sky blue, but let them grow a little bit more than 20,000 cars and they just might get a few more color options. But if I win the Lottery, I’ll get mine in Red as soon as they can build it.
(and yes, for that really nice version, a reservation requires a 40K deposit)
Anyone want to give me 40K, I mean, 100k?
Anyone?
Nunna Yobinnes
November 28th, 2012
5:50 pm
Logical – good luck on that gift. P.S. if you find someone willing to do it, let me know.
Rabbit
November 28th, 2012
8:53 pm
With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation’s wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations. A. Lincoln
Randall Bailey
November 28th, 2012
8:57 pm
Jay, I’m sorry, I just got home and I tried to read the comments, really I did, to see if this had been asked, but there were too many. Is anyone talking about a tax increase on anyone, including those earning over $250,000, or are they talking about letting the Bush tax cuts expire only. If they are talking about letting the tax cuts expire and adding to the tax rate, I would say hooray, but I didn’t think that was being proposed.
Randall Bailey
November 28th, 2012
8:58 pm
There should be a ? in there.
Airdale
November 29th, 2012
1:43 am
And in the last three years of the 1990s a certain political party using a D started paying off the national debt. But in 2000 a president and party with an R came along and cut taxes for almost all. Unto those that earned much, much was cut. All those who had an R for an identifier said this is great. The debt was no longer being paid off, but the R people said this does not matter. Jobs were sent out of the country because it cut costs for business,and everyone knew that businesses create jobs. Especially in China. After eight years of this foolishness a great financial debt had been created and the economy cratered. Suddenly debt that put Americans back to work was wrong. The cry rose that debt must be paid off. Everyone must sacrifice to pay off the debt. – Except the ones who derived the most financial benefits from the R system. After all, they are the job creators… so what if those jobs are in China or third world countries.
Wilbur
November 29th, 2012
7:28 am
As usual, Bookman is all about his God…politics.
Obama’s problem is not politics…he just proved he is good at that…it’s governance. Now Obama must govern and if you look at wise policy only through the lens of Jay’s god, politics, you will fail. Remember the Obama administration saying not to waste a good recession? That was the early foolish exuberance trumping wisdom. Instead of actually fixing the economy, the Democrats jumped to chase some long held dreams of bigger spending.
Now Obama has to do two things or be marked as a failed President. He has promised to get the economy back on tract and he has promised that his policies will put our fiscal house in order. Slobbering around with the far left who hopes for confiscatory tax rates and entitled everything is the path to historical embarrassment.
For Obama to be marked as a good president he must win the battle before him. His biggest enemy is not the republicans but the left of his own party and his own ideological captivity. Bigger taxes, more spending ( cleverly masquerading as “investment”) is a slow fall over the fiscal cliff and the path to long term failure.
Obama can get a deal that might include higher taxes on the wealthy through reduced deductions and lower marginal tax rates, a real fix on entitlements and spending. If he fails, spending roars ahead and the economy, already fragile, plunges back to recession.
Bookman is off at prayer meeting with MoveOn.org.
JKL2
November 29th, 2012
9:17 am
The party of handouts wins. Forward! over the cliff lemmings.
Fireant
November 29th, 2012
6:21 pm
Something Washington doesn’t understand, quit spending money you don’t have, period.