Why 2012 election was a message election
In an election year with unemployment hovering at 8 percent and millions of Americans deeply concerned about their future, in a year with no campaign-finance laws to prevent rich conservatives from dumping as much money as they wished into the process, in a year featuring an incumbent who motivated the GOP base by his mere existence, the Republican Party lost.
And it wasn’t just the presidency that they lost. At the beginning of the year, with Democrats forced to defend 23 Senate seats while Republicans defended just 10, GOP leaders were all but certain that they would reclaim Senate control and oust Harry Reid as majority leader. It was an historic opportunity.
Instead, they lost two seats. They lost five seats in the House as well, including, at last count, that of Allen West of Florida and Joe Walsh in Illinois. Michele Bachmann barely survived in a heavily Republican district. (UPDATE: The latest numbers suggest that the GOP will lose seven seats in the House, not five.)
In other signs of a changing America, voters in Maine and Maryland approved measures legalizing gay marriage. In Washington, a measure to legalize gay marriage also appears to have passed. In Minnesota, voters rejected a measure that would ban gay marriage. In Wisconsin, voters elected the nation’s first openly gay person to the Senate. And in Colorado and Washington, voters easily approved the recreational use of marijuana.
Three additional points:
The polls were not skewed. Needing an excuse to explain why the polls were so consistently unfriendly to Republicans, Fox News and the conservative media invented one: The pollsters were conspiring with the mainstream media to defraud conservatives. More specifically, the theory went, polls were showing Democrats outnumbering Republicans by a six- or seven-point margin. There’s no way that could be true, conservatives told themselves.
In one sense, it was the perfect explanation. It appealed to the GOP’s inherent distrust of experts who tell them things they don’t want to hear, and also played to their longstanding anger at the media. Eventually, though, all such explanations get “trued up” against reality. And in reality, Democrats did end up with a six-point turnout advantage over Republicans, just as predicted.
This was not Mitt Romney’s fault. Quite the contrary. From the beginning, Romney was the only GOP candidate who was even faintly plausible as president. Would Newt Gingrich have done better? Rick Santorum? Bachmann? Herman Cain? Rick Perry? Please. The blowout would have been epic.
Yes, Romney did pivot from “severely conservative” to moderate right before the first debate, and some in his party will now try to attribute his defeat to that decision. You know the drill: “He was a RINO, and RINOs always lose.” That easy excuse ignores the fact that Romney made that pivot because his “severely conservative” persona was getting killed in the polls at the time. When he changed, the polls changed. This race was close at the end only because he ditched conservatism and embraced moderation.
But here’s where the evidence gets incontrovertible: Last night, the GOP put up a viable Senate candidate in 17 states; most of those 17 candidates ran well to the right of Romney. If conservatism was a winning message, they should have done better with voters than the moderate Romney did.
The exact opposite proved true. In 12 of those 17 states, Romney outperformed the conservative Senate candidate. In six states, Romney outperformed the GOP Senate candidate by a double-digit margin. In five states, Romney outperformed the Republican Senate candidate by 15 points or more.
And the five GOP Senate candidates who did better in their states than Romney?* Every single one ran as a moderate. Overall, voters rejected conservatism, and “moderate Mitt” deserves great credit for squeezing every vote possible out of a tough situation.
But every vote possible wasn’t enough.
The country has changed; the GOP has not. Republicans lost badly among Latino voters, black voters, gay voters, Jewish voters and women. They once again did quite well among white voters, who comprised 72 percent of the electorate. But that’s down from 74 percent in 2008, which was down from 77 percent in 2004, which was down from 80 percent in 2000.
Does anybody see a trend in those numbers?
But other numbers are just as daunting. In exit polls yesterday, 74 percent of Republican voters said that they believe illegal immigrants should be deported instead of offered a chance at citizenship. That is clearly a core issue for the GOP base. Yet overall, just 29 percent of Americans share that opinion.
How do you convince that 74 percent of Republicans that their party has to change and change pretty dramatically if it’s to compete in the emerging America? How do you convince them that they have to break out of the lily-white political ghetto in which they’ve confined themselves?
It’s going to take leadership. It’s going to take people such as Marco Rubio and Bobby Jindal and Jeb Bush and Chris Christie telling hard truths to a base that has often found ingenious ways to avoid hard truths. It’s going to take a willingness to compromise and a willingness to change and a willingness to confront the talk-radio hosts and special interest groups who see no personal benefit to such change.
Overall, the narrowness of the GOP defeat in the presidential race disguises just how significant this election really was. The ground was prepared perfectly for a major GOP victory — everything was in place — and the opposite happened. And it’s not something new. In the last six presidential cycles, the GOP candidate has won a plurality of votes just once. That was George W. Bush in 2004, riding the fumes of his post-9/11 performance.
This was a message election, in terms of both ideology and demography, and from here on out that message is going to be restated louder and louder and louder until the Republican Party finds a way to respond to it.
– Jay Bookman
*The states in question are Connecticut, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Mexico.
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665 comments Add your comment
middle of the road
November 7th, 2012
11:12 am
“But then I don’t depend on the gubment.”
I hear a lot of people say that. But then they want “what is coming to them” as far as Medicare Part C (which they didn’t pay for), and Social Security, and Federal Disaster RElief after a hurricane, and bailouts for the banks that made stupid decisions, and roads built where they want to go, and safe food. But they don’t want any help from the “gubmet”.
Nunna Yobinnes
November 7th, 2012
11:12 am
Aquagirl – So are you saying that Obamacare is going to reduce healthcare costs? I think not. People like myself will continue to pay ridiculously high prices for healthcare, and now we’ll get to share in the healthcare costs of all the deadbeats. Yippy. I am so excited.
Joe Hussein Mama
November 7th, 2012
11:12 am
Flagboy — “I can agree with the card and naturalization thing, but what effort will be made after that for people who enter the country illegally?”
I don’t know what kind of work they’re going to do. With the employer penalties associated with employing illegals (mentioned earlier), who would give them a job and risk that level of fines?
STEVIE RAY
November 7th, 2012
11:14 am
STEVIES QUOTE OF THE DAY:
“We have now sunk to a depth at which re-statement of the obvious is the first duty of (the) intelligent..
George Orwell review of a Bertrand Russell article circa 1939..
The system is broke….doesn’t matter if the pig has red or blue lipstick..it’s still swine!
clem
November 7th, 2012
11:18 am
welcome to occupation…no the republican party went too far right, dems stayed sorta in the middle which despite the rights claim is where they have been since clinton
monty
November 7th, 2012
11:21 am
gay marriage,illegal alien free college, assisted physician suicide, legal dope. Welcome to the new center. LOL!
Welcome to the Occupation
November 7th, 2012
11:21 am
Adam: “Liberalism won pretty handily last night”
Yes, so it appears. But remember that liberalism has many faces, and the Romney/Ryan ticket represented one of them, one which is not nearly the polar opposite of the one represented by Obama as his supporters generally believe. There are serious storm clouds and Obama’s brand of liberalism Obama represents does not really have any serious long-term answers. The economic crisis of global capitalism will continue, centered in Europe, but involving the entire globe, and the US will continue to have to respond to those factors without being in control of them.
Erwin's cat
November 7th, 2012
11:23 am
STEVIE – Per AARP, there are 21 million who do not have picture ID which is 11% of senior population.
Not sure I understand these numbers…are you saying that of 400 Million people 210 Million are seniors?…data I found suggests in the us population 40 million are seniors….or is AARP saying 4 million seniors w/o ID…or 21 million seniors are w/o ID….what am I missing here
middle of the road
November 7th, 2012
11:24 am
“4 more years of no budget being submitted by our Prez. amazing how someone could win by being so inept.”
Monty – Here is the link to the 2012 Budget Proposal that you say the President did not submit:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/files/documents/budget_2012.pdf
You can find these by going to google.com and typing in the words “2012 Presidental Budget Proposal”
Each year the President of the United States is required to present a budget proposal, then Congress takes it from there and either passes it, or creates a different one and passes it (or not).
Got any more lies you want us to believe?
Welcome to the Occupation
November 7th, 2012
11:26 am
clem: “welcome to occupation…no the republican party went too far right, dems stayed sorta in the middle which despite the rights claim is where they have been since clinton”
I would basically agree, but w/one objection. The Dems have not been in the center, but have cleaved to the center right since Clinton as our entire political spectrum represented by the two-party system has swung sharply right over the last 20 yrs.
Adam
November 7th, 2012
11:26 am
monty: The President has submitted a budget every single year. I thought you guys liked pointing out how it always gets voted down?
getalife
November 7th, 2012
11:28 am
stevie,
Just the facts stevie.
Yes, stevie facts still matter.
Adam
November 7th, 2012
11:29 am
WttO: The economic crisis of global capitalism will continue, centered in Europe, but involving the entire globe, and the US will continue to have to respond to those factors without being in control of them.
That will not end until we achieve near unlimited resources or zero-point energy, I’m afraid.
Mark Davis
November 7th, 2012
11:30 am
this is a thoughtful analysis. it would also help republicans if they would stop listening to the echo chamber of their own fraudulent propaganda machine and start listening to what they describe as “the mainstream media.” they also need to confront their word-coded racism and start representing people instead of corrupt corporate money.
getalife
November 7th, 2012
11:33 am
The good news is the cons will stay the course with their lies and will repeat the same losing mistakes.
Still living in la la land so lets marginalize them as kooks.
skippy
November 7th, 2012
11:34 am
here goes another 4 years of false promises…
Alex
November 7th, 2012
11:37 am
@Mark, more Racism——
John Wayne
November 7th, 2012
11:37 am
Republican Traitor? Fred, go back to your antique ship and help Lamont.
appleseed
November 7th, 2012
11:38 am
TD why you are laughing?Is to keep from crying.What would be the best for this country,is for the President,and congress to work together.I think in one of his speeches President said “vote for anyone that will work with me”.He did not say that will agree with me.
I think Romney would have made a good President,and congress would have worked more with Romney than Obama.I did not want to vote for a president feeling I was being blackmailed or forced to vote for.So I think we have kicked the can to the end of the dead end street.Unite work together to get out of this long term mess.
BellBell
November 7th, 2012
11:42 am
It absolutely amazes me how childish the left side opinion is(on this thread and in general.)
Just bashing the other side with elementary comments.
Educate yourselves and have your opinion be interesting or factual or mature even.
(27 and terrified of our futures)
.
middle of the road
November 7th, 2012
11:44 am
Where did Monty go?
ad
November 7th, 2012
11:47 am
mama says – You libs know Romney wasnt going to kill Obama Care and you know he cant outlaw abortions. You also know tha in truth, he agrees with 98% of Obamas approach to world events.
===============================
a) We knew that there was a version of Romney that was moderate and would have been attractive to many moderates who voted for Obama, but we also saw the GOP platform and we’ve seen so many versions of Romney, we weren’t sure which one we’d get.
b) We also were pretty sure the TP members of the GOP, who would be required for a Romney second term were expecting the Romney who would appoint anti-choice people to SCOTUS and would have to be responsive to their other agenda items.
Move the party back to right of center, instead of “far” right of center and let’s talk.
Vashtai
November 7th, 2012
11:52 am
I love the schadenfreude up in here!
monty
November 7th, 2012
12:03 pm
Each year, the President of the United States is required to submit his budget on or after the first Monday in January but not later than the first Monday in February. While other Presidents have been late as well, President Obama’s tardiness has set several new records:
•First President to deliver three budgets late in just one term. President Obama has delivered all of his fiscal year (FY) budgets—except FY 2011—late.
•First President to deliver two budgets late in a row. President Obama delivered both the FY 2012 and the FY 2013 budgets after deadline.
•First President to take an extra 98 days to deliver his transition year budget. While a President’s first-year budget submission is delayed for practical reasons—there is not enough time between entering office and the budget deadline—President Obama’s first budget was delivered more than 30 days later than any other President’s budget.
Concerning midsession reviews, President Obama’s record is no better. Each year, the President is also required to submit a supplemental summary of the budget for the fiscal year, including any changes made, before July 16. It’s July 18, and Congress has yet to receive the President’s obligatory midsession review. In fact, President Obama has never delivered a midsession review on time.
Great leader, that Mr. Obama! I’m getting all warm and tingly feeling.
monty
November 7th, 2012
12:05 pm
Adam- “monty: The President has submitted a budget every single year. I thought you guys liked pointing out how it always gets voted down?”
Not even a single HOR dem vote, for his budget?
middle of the road
November 7th, 2012
12:05 pm
Oh, Monty, there you are. So you admit you lied in your earlier post about the President not submitting a budget? Now you just say he was late.
With people like Monty arguing against Obama, it is easy to see why he was elected.
If Obama wins, Repubs still control the House
November 7th, 2012
12:06 pm
Hey Fred,
Wake up, many validated stories of the one you heard Boortz speak on.
It is the new normal!
Martin the Calvinist
November 7th, 2012
12:07 pm
Random points on topic, 1. I disagree with Jay’s assessment that this was a statement election or mandate election, ABC and CBS both agree with me, both said this is a very divided country and that Obama has a lot to prove and a lot to do to win over almost 50% of this country who disagrees with his political ideology.
2. I have to concede the polls were right even though they were weighted 7-13 percent heavier Democrat, I’ll still argue that if the polls were weighted by that amount to the Republicans and had Romney favored, You’d say the polls were wrong too, at least before the election
3. You are going to have to prove to me that Big Gov’t with the Federal Gov’t expanding it’s intake of revenue will solve high unemployment, create equality in people’s treatment, in pay, ect….You are going to have to prove to me that we will be fiscally sound governmental wise and economic wise by gov’t increasing it’s role in the economic affairs of Americans.
4. I find it absurd that Liberals get angry over gov’t “restrictions” on who you can sleep with, who can get contraception, who can get married, who can have children, what religion you must follow, but are complete advocates of the Federal gov’t telling you to buy health insurance, and soon will be telling you how much energy you can use, and de facto telling you how much of your own money you earn you can keep. ie higher tax rates on the more income you earn.
Before you go nuts I’ll tell you even though I’m a devote believer, I don’t believe it’s the gov’ts job to tell you who you can or can’t marry, whether abortion should be done or not, whether you should or shouldn’t smoke cigarettes or pot, drink alcohol…not the gov’ts business until you hurt someone else, ie drink and drive….
but i surely am against the gov’t dictating economic behavior. if this election was a mandate for free markets and limited gov’t involvement, then I will say that most people want the gov’t to dictate economic behavior, they want gov’t to step in and solve every problem they have in life fiscally, they (if lower income) wants the gov’t to hand out grants to pay for college, give them money to buy food, give them rental assistance, guarantee them health care, guarantee retirement and let those “more fortunate” than others pay for it…
trying not to sound too sour grapy, I believe in God more than I believe in the goodness of man, I believe in Proverbs 21:1 and my faith will always be in the Lord, not in what man can do, because it falls short anyway….
monty
November 7th, 2012
12:09 pm
middle of the road
I mis-spoke. But to my credit I did my research. And it still looks bad for the so-called greatest leader of our time. He can’t even put forth a budget that his own party in the House can feel good about. He gets pushed into givng a budget like forcing your kids to eat squash.
smike
November 7th, 2012
12:09 pm
@Mama: >>The libs should careful. This path to the future is potentially just as damning for you guys. If we conservatives can push out the old guy party leaders and talk to the minority folks of this country like they are people, your party will die. But then again we havent been able to do that as of yet. but if we ever do it I have no idea what the liberal argument could be.
If you do all that, we’ll probably all be on the same side.
Martin the Calvinist
November 7th, 2012
12:12 pm
welcome to the occupation, I kinda disagree that the Democrat party is to the right, George Stepanouplous (sp) pretty much said Obama ran on a liberal agenda and won, Obama said he wants to raise taxes, increase gov’t spending, supports gay marraige….George said that McGovern is somewhere smiling…..
Krystal'sBalls
November 7th, 2012
12:12 pm
@smike
November 7th, 2012
12:09 pm
RIGHT!!!!! They just do not get it. LoL
Joshua
November 7th, 2012
12:13 pm
I don’t think Mitt Romney was really a good candidate in general. But when you take into account the others who were in the primary, then yes, he was the only choice that even stood a chance.
monty
November 7th, 2012
12:15 pm
Send us all the crims in the Mexican prisons. We’ll send them to school and buy their books! Because it’s their rights! Loonies are in control. Oh how the mighty have fallen.
smike
November 7th, 2012
12:16 pm
@Joshua >>I don’t think Mitt Romney was really a good candidate in general. But when you take into account the others who were in the primary, then yes, he was the only choice that even stood a chance.
Again, Huntsman would have won the general election handily. But the conservative base wouldn’t even give him the time of day.
flagboy?
November 7th, 2012
12:23 pm
Joe Hussein Mama
November 7th, 2012
11:12 am
Flagboy — “I can agree with the card and naturalization thing, but what effort will be made after that for people who enter the country illegally?”
I don’t know what kind of work they’re going to do. With the employer penalties associated with employing illegals (mentioned earlier), who would give them a job and risk that level of fines?
___________________________________
We already have fines for employing illegals, but it still happens.
What level of fines would your plan include?
flagboy?
November 7th, 2012
12:28 pm
Joe – as laughable as it sounds, I think we need some type of increased patrol system of the border. I think we ask that branch of law enforcement to do an impossible job with the resources at their disposal.
Partisay
November 7th, 2012
12:30 pm
Poor Monty. This election has him so rattled he doesn’t even know what month it is.
“…including any changes made, before July 16. It’s July 18, and Congress has yet to receive the President’s obligatory midsession review.”
It’s not July, It’s November. Oh wait, maybe he copied and pasted.
If the best you can do is copy and paste something that’s 4 months old about late budgets, you just might as well hit that “X” in the top right corner and go back to bed.
monty
November 7th, 2012
12:30 pm
Sometimes you have to hit rock bottom before you can see the need to change the path you’re on. We obviously are still on the descent and aren’t there yet as a nation. The time will come though, just hope that there is still something left to salvage when we bottom out. Or we can just go the way of the Titanic when the band played on.
monty
November 7th, 2012
12:35 pm
As some pundits said last nite after the results were in that the US is becoming more like western Europe. That in and of it’sself otta give us the willies. But I doubt it will to most of the bloggers here.
Partisay
November 7th, 2012
12:37 pm
We were losing 800,000 jobs per month when President Obama took office. Read that again and let that sink in. We’ve already hit rock bottom. I don’t know about you, but everybody else is on their way up! So sorry you’re getting left behind Monty.
clem
November 7th, 2012
12:38 pm
welcome to occupation, very true. i am older white who is amazed at how my peers get so conservative in their old age. i guess we all circle the wagons in our old age, the passion for a better way seems to flicker. i seem to sense more ethnic clinging in older generations too. realize these are generalizations. the right ran on campaign of this and referendum on obama. yet they did little to help the country advance and obstructed way beyond the pale. i am also amazed at lack of giving back to society on part of upper income folks. look at mitt hiding his money in a charitable trust to his church and paying minimal taxes %. while his church may do some good works i wonder how truly ecumenical they truly are. look at stock market today. guess the big money boys see their world changing not for the good.
Conservative
November 7th, 2012
12:40 pm
Its funny reading all the liberals claims of victory. All you have won is the right to continue to screw up this country for another 4 years in the name of “I deserve something for nothing”. Yes, this country is changing but not for the better. If this new majority voted for values and not handouts you might be on the right track. Just because less people still understand what is right doesn’t make it any less true.
Partisay
November 7th, 2012
12:41 pm
Who said we were becoming more like western Europe? Which “pundits?” – more than one? (I can imagine which network.) You put alot of stock to what a pundits say? I must say, I’ve never let anything a pundit say ever give me the willies.
Mama Says
November 7th, 2012
12:50 pm
Middle of the Road,
The dems were bribed into compromise on the ObamaCare bill.
They did not support it they held out long enought to get what they needed in their districts. To say the dems compromised on a bill that they did not read but unanimously voted for is wrong and is the very definition of politics at its worse.
Exclusion from the bills requirements in order to get a vote is not compromise its bribery.
and again, if you are telling me that Joe Biden is a moderate in your eyes, well thats another indicator of where the thought process is. If cons are to compromise on their beliefs why are the libs not expected to ?
Nunna Yobinnes
November 7th, 2012
12:53 pm
Unfortunately with this election, there was no good candidate to vote for, only a choice of the “lesser of two evils.” The two party system is broken, and until both sides come out of their extremist views (right and left) we don’t even have a chance of fixing things.
clem
November 7th, 2012
12:58 pm
hey conservative, how about the something for nothings on wall st…..they bribe congress to make more money on the backs of middle america and third world countries…..
Conservative
November 7th, 2012
1:10 pm
The people that run companies actually employ people so they can make a living. If they go away then where are the jobs for middle america going to come from? Certainly not from the people ‘occupying Wall St’ or using the welfare system as a way of life.
tireofit
November 7th, 2012
1:28 pm
The republicans drank too much of their kool-aide.
Democrats Are Devils
November 7th, 2012
1:48 pm
stocks are plunging today ! plunge stocks !, plunge 1000 points !! plunge !!
George
November 7th, 2012
1:48 pm
Even if the top 5% of Americans were taxed 100% of their yearly earnings it wouldn’t even pay for 1/10 of the Government spendings for the year. Do the math and wake up please.
Democrats Are Devils
November 7th, 2012
1:50 pm
come on stocks !, plunge !! beginnings of god’s wrath !! plunge stocks plunge !!!!
Democrats Are Devils
November 7th, 2012
1:51 pm
how about another hurricane ?!! plunge stocks !, plunge !!!
Dum-Bass
November 7th, 2012
1:55 pm
It was a “message election” alright. Here’s hoping those who re-elected bear the brunt of all the pain and suffering that will go on for 4 more years. I say it’s going to get worse. Here’s who put him through again per CSM: 93% African Americans, 71% Hispanics, 73% Asians, and a huge majority of young college-age and slightly older young people. These are naive and gullible members of society who don’t have even the slightest idea of what they just did to this country. BUT, they will soon!
Democrats Are Devils
November 7th, 2012
1:56 pm
i want a check !!
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November 7th, 2012
2:07 pm
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Doc
November 7th, 2012
2:12 pm
Well here we go. 4 more years of the same as the last 4:
Bigger government, more regulation, higher gas prices, more debt, high unemployment, more people on welfare, etc. sounds wonderful. I guess us poor working stiffs are the idiots. We should all just let the government pay for everything we want, problem is the government doesn’t generate any money. only those of us who work do. So let’s tax the rich until there are no more rich people. then we can all be equally in debt to China. I wonder who the libs will blame 4 years from now when things are so messed up that it may not be possible to fix? I guess they’ll still blame Bush?
DanH
November 7th, 2012
3:29 pm
The problem the Republicans have and will continue to have is that they refuse to examine “their message” to voters.The Republicans send a message that is basically against women,gays,minorities and then wonder why it doesn’t get them elected.They think they just need someone to sell their message better which is like saying “I have a bunch of dog crap to sell now if I can just pick out the right wrapping paper to wrap it up in they will buy it”. How about you actually realize nobody wants what you are selling America has grown up we know that women,gays and minorities are equal to middle aged and older white men and that America has more than just one religious view and that we do not want “your” religion to dictate how we live our lives.
Krystal'sBalls
November 7th, 2012
3:30 pm
Lovely.
Conservative
November 7th, 2012
4:24 pm
DanH. “America has grown up?” More like turned into a spoiled idiot who wants without working and
who if he ever has to make a living on his own will not have the slightest idea how to begin.
DanH
November 7th, 2012
4:57 pm
We just had an election and the spoiled idiot lost.You sound like Mitt “the loser” Romney “how dare people in America think that their kids should not go hungry”.”How dare people think that in America their sick kids should get medical care”.”How dare people in America think that they deserve better than living in a cardboard box somewhere”"how dare women think that they should decide their own medical care instead of some old white guy”"how dare minorities in America think that they are equal to white men in power”.When Republicans get rid of the crazies in their party maybe America will take them serious right now the Republicans are on their way to being as relevant to the American people as the whig party.
Brad
November 7th, 2012
5:30 pm
It absolutely was Mitt Romney’s fault. Romney was a RINO and RINOs are losers. The RINO establishment gave us Bob Dole and John McCain. Both of them lost elections they should have won. Then, they gave us Mitt Romney and he found a way to lose when he should have won in a landslide. I voted for Mitt and I thought he was going to win, we were going to get a Republican sweep and he’d actually govern as a real Republican instead of a RINO. Mitt’s RINO strategists (the same idiots that advised McCain how to lose in 2008) purposely told him to play prevent defense the entire campaign, secretly hoping that Democrats would keep the Senate, but Mitt would win so that he could govern as a leftist. The arch-RINOs were actually writing articles hoping that Mitt would win narrowly so that he would govern with a Democrat Congress and thus be the kind of RINO they want. They put Paul Ryan on the ticket to basically move him out of the way so he wouldn’t be able to do anything and then he’d get the blame for Romney’s leftist policies. If there was any reason whatsoever for RINOs to exist, it was so that they could beat an ultra-leftist Democrat who lied about being an Indian to advance her career prospects. Yet, Scott Brown lost, proving that RINOs are absolutely worthless and all of them need to be driven out of the Republican Party.
My first choice was Ron Paul. He certainly would have done better among minority voters and especially among younger voters. I think it is regrettable that Congressman Paul doesn’t realize that he is being used by the leftist media and that they would have turned viciously against him if he ever became a threat to their ideology. His son Rand learned this during his first Senate campaign when he went on BSNBC. Rand Paul has the positives of his father, without the negatives and he really should be our candidate in 2016 if we want to win and if we want to reverse leftism.
I also think Herman Cain could have done better, if some far-left ambulance chaser hadn’t conjured up some scandal playing off racist stereotypes of black men to drive him out of the race (there’s more truth to this claim than any of the myriad of “racism” accusations made by the left in the last 4 years). If Barack Obama was white or Mitt Romney was black, I believe this election would have gone the other way. Apparently, many swing voters didn’t want to remove the first black President even though he is incompetent and a complete failure. The opportunity to replace one black President with another probably would have helped convince swing voters to vote Obama out.
Besides Cain and Paul, I don’t think any of the candidates that ran for the nomination could have done better. If Obama can paint Mitt Romney as “anti-women” and scare women into voting for him, he could have done the same with Santorum. If Newt Gingrich had been the candidate, he couldn’t have out-performed Romney’s performance in the debates and his attempts to expose Obama would be “fact-checked” by the leftist media. If we ran Michele Bachmann, she would have been utterly crushed after being painted as crazy by the media. Rick Perry wouldn’t have worked either because he was awful in debates and would have been portrayed as being just like George W. Bush.
In 2016, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie are at the top of my list of most unacceptable nominees. Chris Christie probably cost Romney the election because he’s obsessed with being liked by Bruce Springsteen. Jeb Bush openly advocates tax increases. If the RINO establishment tries to foist either of them on us, we’re looking at 4 more years of Democrat rule. Next time around, we need to find a genuinely conservative candidate that can win and unite around that candidate before the RINOs stick us with another loser. My choice right now is Rand Paul. I’m willing to support a different candidate if I believe that candidate is a strong conservative (especially on economic issues) and can win. Over the next 4 years, the Republican wing of the Republican Party needs to work together against the RINOs and the Democrats. We need unity between those of us that supported Romney-Ryan (as I did) and those that didn’t because we can’t win without growing our base and driving out those that undermine us and foist loser candidates upon us.
In an America with rising levels of social liberalism and war-fatigue, we need to stand strong on economics while viewing social issues as state issues and favoring a foreign policy focused solely on defending America, not rebuilding other nations or trying to promote democracy around the world. We should probably embrace open borders on immigration, which is incompatible with the existence of a welfare state (so let’s get rid of the welfare state!) and self-determination on the gay marriage issue (now that gay marriage has actually won at the ballot box in some areas). There are areas in America where social conservatism and traditional hawkish foreign policy can still win. There are other areas where libertarian conservatism is the only kind that can win. If we leave social issues at the federal level, we’re looking at the left imposing social liberalism on the entire country and forcing social conservatives to fund things they consider morally repugnant. If we make it a state issue and shrink the government, that means the federal government would be greatly reduced in size and scope and wouldn’t be funding anything controversial. That also means that social conservatives would have be able to win locally in some areas. Winning nationally is impossible in an increasingly secular America, but there are still socially conservative areas in this country.
Somebody needs to identify every pundit who was responsible for selling us the “Mitt Romney can win” BS (especially the ones who also sold us “Bob Dole can win” and “John McCain can win”) and expose them as the frauds they are. They need to go because they have brought about 3 electoral defeats in recent years and none of their candidates they’ve told us is “electable” has ever actually been electable. The importance of finishing the job of RINO removal is one thing every member of the Republican wing of the Republican Party can agree upon despite our differences on other issues. I do believe that Reagan’s coalition needs to be tweaked just as Calvin Coolidge’s coalition was tweaked by Reagan. Ronald Reagan won 2 landslide victories (and George H.W. Bush won a big victory on Reagan’s coattails). Since then, we have won the popular vote once in the last 6 elections and have never won more than 50.7% of the vote and 286 electoral votes. We won 51.5% of the vote for the House in 1994 and 51.4% of the vote in 2010 (this is probably the best result the current coalition can achieve nationally). We like to talk about how 40% of the country is conservative, 40% is moderate and 20% is leftist, but really many of those “moderates” are simply leftists who are too dishonest to label themselves accurately so the numbers are much closer to 20% moderate and 40% leftist. We have to accept that the country has changed and expand our coalition, while removing the cancerous RINOs that lead us to our defeat. Democrat-lite isn’t going to work. We need to come to terms with what kind of country we live in and develop a form of conservatism that can win and that can fix the problems we face, whatever that may be. The Democrat coalition can reach 52.9% as their high-water mark. We need to expand our coalition by at least another 1.5% to be even with the Democrats and preferably by more than that to be able to govern.
Rabbit
November 7th, 2012
6:03 pm
“They need to go because they have brought about 3 electoral defeats in recent years and none of their candidates they’ve told us is “electable” has ever actually been electable”
Why are they not electable? Until you can be honest with yourself about issues that turn elections you will support losing candidates. Like Karl Rove last night who could not accept the math in Ohio, denial of what sells to the MAJORITY is a losers game.
Joel Edge
November 8th, 2012
6:24 am
“change and change pretty dramatically if it’s to compete in the emerging America?”
Sorry, Jay, we already have one party dedicated to grievance and division, we don’t need a carbon copy. We’ll stand on principle and go down swinging. If people can’t understand why a large intrusive government is damaging their children’s and grandchildren’s future, maybe at some point in the future they will.
Vince
November 10th, 2012
10:17 am
Jay, you forgot one thing in your post. While a lot of factors for Romney and the republican’s loss are correct, you forgot to mention how yourself and the rest of the mainstream media absolutely refused to hold Obama accountable for any of his failings, not to mention downright lies. Refusal to provide support to our Ambassador in Libya immediately comes to mind.
I hope you guys can sleep well at night knowing that your own personal biases directly helped a man that you, the media, have created this Jesus-like myth around, and a man you have never once held accountable.