Live blog: Election 2012, the final chapter
UPDATE: 6:40: Early exit polls report that 2012 electorate is ’slightly’ more Republican than in 2008. That’s crucial, because most 2012 polling is built on the assumption that 2012 turnout will be similar to 2008 turnout.
UPDATE: 7:40 Obama up in early Ohio exit polls.
Winning by 11 among women, down 6 among men. Net up three. If that holds, that’s crucial.
UPDATE: 8:07: Early exit polling from Pennsylvania: Obama up five. That is the sound of a door slamming shut. Romney needs some good news, and so far he isn’t getting any.
UPDATE: 9:28″ Romney needs to prove that the polls are wrong, and so far they just aren’t. For example, Fox just gave Wisconsin — Paul Ryan’s home state — to Obama. Another door slams shut.
UPDATE: 9:52: New Hampshire called. Pennsylvania called. Both for Obama. Romney is running out of routes to the White House.
In the Senate, Elizabeth Warren beats Scott Brown; Richard Mourdock loses in Indiana. Tammy Baldwin wins in Wisconsin, becoming our first openly gay U.S. senator.
UPDATE: 10:05: Republicans were insistent that the polls were oversampling Democrats, that there was no way so many Americans were Democratic.
So far, it looks as though they were wrong.
UPDATE: 10:48: This bodes poorly long-term for the GOP:
Exit poll finds that 74 percent of Republicans believe illegal immigrants should be deported.
Overall, just 29 percent of Americans share that opinion. So how do you convince that 74 percent that the party has to alter its viewpoint to succeed?
——————
In my attempt to provide you with a full-service political blog, I thought some of you — I’m not saying who — might be needing the following before the night is over.
You don’t know who you are yet, but when the time comes, you’ll thank me I’m sure:
Source: http://bertc.com/subfive/recipes/threecrows.htm
In the meantime, this will serve as our election-night live-blog headquarters, at least until a winner is declared. Please respect other bloggers and remain civil, even when others are not. I’m guessing that the over-under for banning people tonight will be four, but I’m hoping that you folks prove me wrong.
Or, as the immortal Bette Davis once put it:
– Jay Bookman
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1,251 comments Add your comment
Peter
November 6th, 2012
6:47 pm
Women voting will be the saving grace for Obama.
Paul
November 6th, 2012
6:48 pm
RW-(the original)
Thanks much. From what I know of Jay, that’s about what I was expecting.
Hope it’s not the last time tonight I wasn’t disappointed.
JamVet
November 6th, 2012
6:48 pm
Obama was in Benghazi?
In my best Johnny Carson voice, “I did not know that.”
Lynn Pelletier
November 6th, 2012
6:48 pm
Does crow taste like chicken?
It really doesn’t matter because I’m soooooo stressed out over this election there is no way I could eat anything! LOL…..
H.E. Pennypacker
November 6th, 2012
6:48 pm
Due to the portion of Florida in central time, I don’t think they can announce results until 8:00 EDT.
Krystal'sBalls
November 6th, 2012
6:49 pm
So Romney campaign internal polling showed him trailing by 5% in OHIO as of Sunday?/
Of course we ALL knew that already, otherwise why would he be camPAINing there and Pennsylvania even TODAY?
Put on the face, yeah! We know better.
josef
November 6th, 2012
6:49 pm
RW
Yeah…I’d like to know that before I get started…
PAUL
“Good Mexican food? (is that possible in Atlanta?)”
I can get the best you ever had for free all day long…’course it helps if you speak Spanish and are the l’il ones’ maestro…
and Manuel’s? Oh, now THAT’s an Atlanta tradition worthy of mention…
appleseed
November 6th, 2012
6:49 pm
Slate analysis: Whoever wins the election will likely get to preside over a growing economy and look like a genius.
I’ll take my old crow out of the bottle.Win or lose Obama will always be a genius.Will give Black History an incentive to lead.
Doggone/GA
November 6th, 2012
6:50 pm
“he should have been escourted from the White House.”
It’s amusing…the turns of phrase people use. The Secret Service would simply say that he IS “escorted” – every time he leaves the White House.
Dave
November 6th, 2012
6:50 pm
I think Manuel’s serves chips and salsa from bags and jars.
RW-(the original)
November 6th, 2012
6:50 pm
Keep…
josef says Paul’s doddering and old so he probably needed the link twice.
Lynn Pelletier
November 6th, 2012
6:51 pm
I certainly hope so….. I have an 80 something friend who is absolutely terrified that women’s lives will revert to the way things were in her day!
Sally
November 6th, 2012
6:51 pm
Liking that early exit polls announcement.
Paul
November 6th, 2012
6:51 pm
Keep Up
I think you and RW are gonna get on just fine.
Sounds like a place I need to put on my list when I visit Atlanta. Kinda like the bar at the Algonquin in NYC -
I SEE RED PEOPLE
November 6th, 2012
6:52 pm
I pity the fool who makes a last minute electoral projection that is beyond absurd.
Some of us may not have long memories, but tomorrow comes quickly.
F. Sinkwich
November 6th, 2012
6:56 pm
“That’s crucial, because most 2012 polling is built on the assumption that 2012 turnout will be similar to 2008 turnout.”
If it is, I will be very surprised. I just don’t see the O’bozo-messiah enthusiasm from back then now.
Doofus McCain got 47% of the vote back then — only 3 points away from victory. That’s not a lot of ground for the Mittster to make up.
Paul
November 6th, 2012
6:57 pm
josef
That’s only because you have an inside track. Like the best tamales you ever, ever had – from my sister’s mother-in-law.
RW-(the original)
You’ll notice I did not take exception to ‘doddering” or ‘fool’… but ‘old’? …what would josef say? “Ah do de-clayah, ah believe ah’ve been inSULted!”
Thulsa Doom
November 6th, 2012
6:58 pm
Where the hell is Fred? Did he set a new record and get banned before the thread even started?
josef
November 6th, 2012
6:58 pm
PAUL
It’s about as close as Atlanta can get to the Algonquin…sort of a cross between that and the Waffle House–
josef
November 6th, 2012
7:00 pm
THULSA
Fred’s busy today doing his civic duty rigging the vote..
Brosephus™
November 6th, 2012
7:00 pm
Poll closing time. Georgia and South Carolina have been projected to go to Romney.
Jay
November 6th, 2012
7:00 pm
Thulsa, Fred, I believe, is a poll worker tonight. He’s gonna try to meet up here at Manuel’s.
Divide and Conquer
November 6th, 2012
7:02 pm
Sinkwich, I don’t like McCain’s politics, but doofus? I wish you had spent your younger self with him while he was young. I’ll bet you wouldn’t have survived.
Paul
November 6th, 2012
7:02 pm
No results in yet, but I’m gonna call Romney wins Texas.
Thulsa Doom
November 6th, 2012
7:02 pm
Obama just called Alabama a perennial powerhouse. Hell if he wanted the Doomy vote he shoulda said that much earlier.
josef
November 6th, 2012
7:03 pm
Just a quick off topic here…keep a good thought for Gmare…
lynnie gal
November 6th, 2012
7:03 pm
Jay said to keep it nice, people, so stop acting like children. Now, are you kiddin’ me, leave Peter alone. Josef, don’t call Paul old. I’m the only mature one on this site.
godless heathen
November 6th, 2012
7:03 pm
My cousin is a pole worker 3 nights a week at the Pony.
Paul
November 6th, 2012
7:03 pm
josef
that was the best laugh I’ve had all night!
But don’t you dare hint to anyone that Jay likes buttermilk waffles and blueberry syrup with his Woodman’s!
Liberal Nightmare
November 6th, 2012
7:03 pm
Riddle me this…how bad does Obama have to be for Romney (who is admittedly only slighter better than McCain) to be on his way to a decisive victory?
Countdown to riot time….T minus 3 hours and counting……
How will the libs spin the rioting by their populous who votes 90% Democrat? FYI – Sharpton has already used the “d” word.
Liberal Nightmare
November 6th, 2012
7:05 pm
Heathen…. and I bet your cuz is a staunch Romney supporter….! Unless of course her name is Ebony.
getalife
November 6th, 2012
7:06 pm
Manuel’s is a old dark drinking establishment .
Jay had three Bourbon’s so he is dropping sentences
Thulsa Doom
November 6th, 2012
7:06 pm
Jay,
I was just messin with Fred ahead of time. Nice to see that he is civic minded.
Are you kidding me
November 6th, 2012
7:06 pm
Whatever… lynnie gal
josef
November 6th, 2012
7:07 pm
IMAM
“Thulsa, Fred, I believe, is a poll worker tonight. He’s gonna try to meet up here at Manuel’s.”
Hell, I may just have to close out here and go be fly on the wall for that one…!!!!
godless heathen
November 6th, 2012
7:07 pm
Heathen…. and I bet your cuz is a staunch Romney supporter
It ain’t Romney she’s supporting.
RW-(the original)
November 6th, 2012
7:08 pm
Brosephus,
Fox has GA and SC too close to call. They gave Romney Kentucky and Indiana though.
F. Sinkwich
November 6th, 2012
7:08 pm
“Sinkwich, I don’t like McCain’s politics, but doofus?”
He ran a doofus campaign. It was pathetic.
RF
November 6th, 2012
7:09 pm
Well, I’m sitting here waiting for the numbers to start rollin’ in and being parsed and debated by the talking heads. Supper done and served to the pubescent crowd at the homeplace and a few cold ones chilling in the fridge. All is good in the southern reaches of civilization. Somebody poke me when they’re starting to call this thing.
About Tired of All This
November 6th, 2012
7:09 pm
I was curious about the Republican experience today as far as communication from the Romney campaign. I’m a Obama supporter and contributer and I have received at least 4 or 5 reminders an hour by email, text, and tweet to go vote, and contact friends to go vote, send Facebook messages to friends to vote. I am a FL voter, so that may have something to do with it, although what I hear from friends is that they’re getting the full court press across the country from the Obama organization.
If there are any Republicans that can comment civilly, are you getting the same intensity of messaging from the Romney organization?
godless heathen
November 6th, 2012
7:09 pm
Sorry I missed all the prelude today. I’ve been busy emailing votes to New Jersey.
They BOTH suck
November 6th, 2012
7:09 pm
RW
GA?
I thought they called GA for Romney, yesterday.
stands for decibels
November 6th, 2012
7:10 pm
Came across this just after seeing Jay’s update @ 6.40…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/2012-exit-polls_n_2038617.html
If you care about politics and spend a fair amount of time online, odds are good that sometime between 5 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, you will encounter someone sharing leaked “exit poll” numbers that purport to tell you who will win various battleground states.
It may be tempting to assume the numbers will tell you who is going to win the presidential election.
They probably won’t.
Hard as it may be, you should try to ignore them, at least until the polls close. And even then, take the underlying vote estimates with big grains of salt.
josef
November 6th, 2012
7:10 pm
Lynnie
You’re no fun!
But, then, maybe I can entice KRYSTAL to give me another lecture on Indian (whoop, “Native American”) things…
I SEE RED PEOPLE
November 6th, 2012
7:10 pm
Florida 55-45 Obama 4% precincts reporting
godless heathen
November 6th, 2012
7:11 pm
Romney voters know which day to go vote.
Kendelll Jones
November 6th, 2012
7:11 pm
When all of the votes are counted and someone is declared a winner, that is not the end. It is not over until the Electoral College gets through with what they have to do.
RF
November 6th, 2012
7:11 pm
“Jay had three Bourbon’s so he is dropping sentences”
Not any better place to drop them than at Manuel’s, IMO.
Thulsa Doom
November 6th, 2012
7:12 pm
Godless heathen,
God bless them poll workers.
RW-(the original)
November 6th, 2012
7:13 pm
I thought they called GA for Romney, yesterday.
They’ll get around to it. I think they’re just messing with some ITPers right now
Are you kidding me
November 6th, 2012
7:14 pm
@about tired of all this
It has been the same for me on the Romney side. Lots of emails,calls,texts,tweets, etc. Been like that for the past week
RF
November 6th, 2012
7:14 pm
“Romney voters know which day to go vote.”
Funny how those robo-calls knew who to call to try and confuse. Puhleaaaase, how could anyone not know the day to vote with all the dang coverage of it on every network known to man?
Krystal'sBalls
November 6th, 2012
7:15 pm
So in Nashua, NH tons of people currently in line for same day register and vote???? WTH? Um….it isn’t like this is SW Atlanta, so these aren’t “lazy”, “shiftless” “takers” carrying an “Obama” phone I assume??
What took them so long, not motivated enough? I wonder if they would have had a problem jumping through hoops for voter ID? Oh well…I guess people are in fact “people”.
They BOTH suck
November 6th, 2012
7:17 pm
RW
I am ITP and knew last year that GA would be called for the R, even if it was a rock.
Same as California, NJ, etc for the D.
Jay
November 6th, 2012
7:17 pm
Early Va. exit poll:
Among men, Romney up 53-45.
Among women, Obama up 53-46.
Women are 53 percent of turnout.
But remember, 2004 exit polls were off because they oversampled women.
RF
November 6th, 2012
7:18 pm
Oh well…I guess people are in fact “people”.
And so are corporations…or so Mittens says. I wonder if those “people” have to have ID to vote or if Ben’s face on a pile of hundreds is enough.
Krystal'sBalls
November 6th, 2012
7:19 pm
@About Tired of All This
Romney doesn’t care about them. He only wants to BE President, to collect another trophy to gloat over. They are merely pawns for him to get there.
I SEE RED PEOPLE
November 6th, 2012
7:19 pm
Florida 50/50 5% precincts reporting
Thulsa Doom
November 6th, 2012
7:22 pm
Virginia looks like the most interesting early call since Romney really needs that state and they just said its to close to call. Still very early of course.
Brosephus™
November 6th, 2012
7:23 pm
RW
I don’t believe in playing with people’s feelings like Fox.
Honestly though, I don’t think anybody’s called GA yet. Interesting that anybody would think it would be that close.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
November 6th, 2012
7:23 pm
josef, perhaps if you ask nicely jay will videobroadcasting his meetup with Fred… let’s just hope Doom does not stalk them and show up in his speedo’s. We don’t need partially digested crow all over the parking lot.
Jay
November 6th, 2012
7:24 pm
I thought they called GA for Romney, yesterday.
There are no Ga-specific exit polls this time, so they lack the data to call it early.
Tundra Dude
November 6th, 2012
7:24 pm
JOSEF:
Thulsa, Fred, I believe, is a poll worker tonight. He’s gonna try to meet up here at Manuel’s.”
Hell, I may just have to close out here and go be fly on the wall for that one
When I lived down the street from there, I was advised to avoid that place…..lots of questionable characters…. politicians, news media types..
JamVet
November 6th, 2012
7:24 pm
If McCain ran a doofus campaign, Mitt ran a dreadful one.
How many idiotic things did the man say in the past couple of years?
Seriously.
Besides, McCain was a true American hero and I guy I respect enormously. (Andy doesn’t much care for combat heroes. He has called McCain and Hagle RINOs and has ZERO good to say about them, their service to the nation or their not insignificant sacrifice.)
Willard on the other hand is IMUO a candyass, money-hiding, shape shifter and is utterly unworthy of this veteran’s respect. I have no doubts that OBL would still be alive had he been in the White House the past four years.
I believe he is timid, soft on terror and is unfit to lead our military or the nation in this time of international troubles.
josef
November 6th, 2012
7:24 pm
Speaking of Indian things…Brown-Warren exit polls too close to call…
Keep Up the Good Fight!
November 6th, 2012
7:25 pm
Kentucky, with its 8 electoral vote, goes to Mitt Romney, the networks project. Romney will also win Indiana (11 electoral votes). Vermont goes to Obama (3 electoral votes).
Early projections….no surprises
Independent Procrastinator
November 6th, 2012
7:26 pm
YES! I finally decided! I finally made up my mind!
Teacher
November 6th, 2012
7:26 pm
Oh no the prez lost KY
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
November 6th, 2012
7:27 pm
I’m guessing that the over-under for banning people tonight will be four…
Only through page one, but I’ll take the under.
Here’s to hoping page two doesn’t prove me wrong.
Krystal'sBalls
November 6th, 2012
7:27 pm
I have been saying this forever Bro. If Obama had put energy and money into GA, it could have BEEN flipped blue! He got 47% of the vote in 2008 WITH NO EFFORT BEYOND WHAT THEY HAD THIS TIME.
The demographics cannot be denied or contained. The goobers have a false sense of security about GAs being a red state. All you have to do is get people to turn out and a little money into the effort and it’s a WRAP! They’ll say “keep dreamin” in hopes of keeping you complacent. I just don’t roll like that. Take it to them!
josef
November 6th, 2012
7:27 pm
BIG DADDY
“…were off because they oversampled women…”
So many lines, so little time…
Redneck
November 6th, 2012
7:28 pm
Turnout was good in Clayton County…..I thought it was very good considering the rain
josef
November 6th, 2012
7:29 pm
TEACHER
“Oh no the prez lost KY”
Y’all know what I’m thinking…and so are you!
Aquagirl
November 6th, 2012
7:30 pm
So many lines, so little time…
I thought I was the only one stifling a response to that, lol.
stands for decibels
November 6th, 2012
7:31 pm
Y’all know what I’m thinking…
nothing funny about losing the KY.
Brosephus™
November 6th, 2012
7:31 pm
If Obama had put energy and money into GA, it could have BEEN flipped blue!
There may be a time where a Democrat can flip GA, but it’s not this election, and that Democrat is not Obama.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
November 6th, 2012
7:31 pm
Y’all know what I’m thinking…and so are you!
Well now I am……. thanks
Brosephus™
November 6th, 2012
7:32 pm
Y’all know what I’m thinking…
nothing funny about losing the KY.
This is gonna be painful…
The Kid
November 6th, 2012
7:32 pm
Romney epitomizes the decline of American morality. He will say what ever it takes to get a vote; he has no core values that he will stand up for, and he feels that he can buy what ever he wants. Romney plays on the ignorance of poor whites; like this person the Redneck Convert. It’s people like this who will be the downfall of America. Romney would look at a person like this as trash. Don’t kid yourselves folks. This is a rich man from a rich family who would never rub elbows with the very people who are gushing over his spineless a–.
Jay
November 6th, 2012
7:32 pm
Kam, it won’t get ugly until people see their side losing.
I SEE RED PEOPLE
November 6th, 2012
7:33 pm
Florida 52/48 Obama 23% reporting
Joseph
November 6th, 2012
7:33 pm
Romney is up 3 touchdowns!!! 24-3
Redneck
November 6th, 2012
7:33 pm
Georgia has a very poor Demo ground game. WE need more leadership to take anything from the Repugs
josef
November 6th, 2012
7:33 pm
IMAM
“Among men, Romney up 53-45.
Among women, Obama up 53-46.”
Okay, now, how Freudian is THAT
Thulsa Doom
November 6th, 2012
7:33 pm
The stalker commenting on stalking. Oh but the irony…
Teacher
November 6th, 2012
7:34 pm
Awesome
Krystal'sBalls
November 6th, 2012
7:34 pm
Florida is holding for Obama. Matching up to his 2008.
snap!
}:O \
stands for decibels
November 6th, 2012
7:35 pm
Not sure when to switch the TeeVee to some kind of newish punditry. Right now it’s Chopped for me.
josef
November 6th, 2012
7:35 pm
Aquagirl, Brosephus, et al…
Well, he DID have Bette tell us it was going to be a bumpy night!
stands for decibels
November 6th, 2012
7:35 pm
news-ish, I meant to say.
Divide and Conquer
November 6th, 2012
7:35 pm
“He ran a doofus campaign. It was pathetic.”
mmm…agreed. But still, one pathetic campaign in a long political career should not label one as a doofus.
However, I would love to have been privy to the selection of the “one each Palin” unit. WTF. What a ridiculous psuedo-Christian joke that was. I mean good Lord Almighty. Oh well, in hindsight, she may have been a better choice than Biden. *shudder*
“Please God, don’t ever let a modern day VP pick ever take over…ever.” Gore, Quayle, Biden, Palin, Bush…. Ummm, wait, Bush. Oh bother. My mother warned me about him.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
November 6th, 2012
7:35 pm
While Romney claims to have written only his victory speech, Obama told a local Colorado station today that he has two prepared.
So Romney is outsourcing the speech he’ll be giving?
gm
November 6th, 2012
7:36 pm
Obama wins VT, Romney Ky
Wait a minute there are no blacks in VT, I wonder did they vote for him because he was black? wow, open minded whites Thank God for the civil war, and the south lost”””””
stands for decibels
November 6th, 2012
7:36 pm
it won’t get ugly until people see their side losing.
only about a 90.9% probability of that. Let’s hold out hope.
JamVet
November 6th, 2012
7:37 pm
Jewish punditry?
Oy vey!
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
November 6th, 2012
7:38 pm
Kam, it won’t get ugly until people see their side losing.
Quite frankly, I thought more would’ve been banned ere now. (and no, that is not a typo with the “h” missing)
Jay
November 6th, 2012
7:38 pm
Obama up in early Ohio exit polls.
Winning by 11 among women, down 6 among men. Net up three. If that holds, that’s crucial.
JamVet
November 6th, 2012
7:39 pm
Just talked with a friend in St. Augustine and we both agreed that we hope that Florida is not again the laughingstock of the nation for weeks on end…
josef
November 6th, 2012
7:39 pm
The Kid
He ain’t no real Redneck…but he’s a real Du-k-sha-nee
but, wait, I’m supposed to be civil…:-)
Keep Up the Good Fight!
November 6th, 2012
7:39 pm
Kam, if Kyle has not shut down his blog, you might want to watch over there for some real meltdowns.