Live blog: Election 2012, the final chapter
UPDATE: 6:40: Early exit polls report that 2012 electorate is ’slightly’ more Republican than in 2008. That’s crucial, because most 2012 polling is built on the assumption that 2012 turnout will be similar to 2008 turnout.
UPDATE: 7:40 Obama up in early Ohio exit polls.
Winning by 11 among women, down 6 among men. Net up three. If that holds, that’s crucial.
UPDATE: 8:07: Early exit polling from Pennsylvania: Obama up five. That is the sound of a door slamming shut. Romney needs some good news, and so far he isn’t getting any.
UPDATE: 9:28″ Romney needs to prove that the polls are wrong, and so far they just aren’t. For example, Fox just gave Wisconsin — Paul Ryan’s home state — to Obama. Another door slams shut.
UPDATE: 9:52: New Hampshire called. Pennsylvania called. Both for Obama. Romney is running out of routes to the White House.
In the Senate, Elizabeth Warren beats Scott Brown; Richard Mourdock loses in Indiana. Tammy Baldwin wins in Wisconsin, becoming our first openly gay U.S. senator.
UPDATE: 10:05: Republicans were insistent that the polls were oversampling Democrats, that there was no way so many Americans were Democratic.
So far, it looks as though they were wrong.
UPDATE: 10:48: This bodes poorly long-term for the GOP:
Exit poll finds that 74 percent of Republicans believe illegal immigrants should be deported.
Overall, just 29 percent of Americans share that opinion. So how do you convince that 74 percent that the party has to alter its viewpoint to succeed?
——————
In my attempt to provide you with a full-service political blog, I thought some of you — I’m not saying who — might be needing the following before the night is over.
You don’t know who you are yet, but when the time comes, you’ll thank me I’m sure:
Source: http://bertc.com/subfive/recipes/threecrows.htm
In the meantime, this will serve as our election-night live-blog headquarters, at least until a winner is declared. Please respect other bloggers and remain civil, even when others are not. I’m guessing that the over-under for banning people tonight will be four, but I’m hoping that you folks prove me wrong.
Or, as the immortal Bette Davis once put it:
– Jay Bookman
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1,251 comments Add your comment
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
November 7th, 2012
8:14 am
Hey Sheldon, how much you blow, dude?
mwuahahahahahahaha
godless heathen
November 7th, 2012
8:14 am
Chris Christie is at the gym this morning.
stands for decibels
November 7th, 2012
8:15 am
I think it’s possible we’ve just seen a permanent shift to Democrats as president
Nothing, but nothing, is “permanent” in US partisan politics. Democrats can succumb to the monied interests that already pretty much own (most of) them; Republicans can return to the trust-busting populism and environmentalism of TR; their respective nominees for the nation’s CEO will reflect this.
Gale
November 7th, 2012
8:15 am
I am not ready to label the election a landslide. A thin popular margin and 30 electoral votes does not equal landslide in my opinion. It looks more like status quo. On the other hand, maybe politicians on both sides will take a harder look at the people in the country, not just the money.
Goldie
November 7th, 2012
8:15 am
Adam @ 8:12 — Amen bro’!
Georgia on my mind...
November 7th, 2012
8:16 am
I may have been the first one to offer to eat my crow. (prediction that Georgia would go to Obama by 1 percentage point). I have come to the conclusion that this state will remain RED and it will be that way for years to come unless the Repubs have a change of heart. I am happy today that I can say that Barack Obama is “still” the President of Georgia also!!
flagboy?
November 7th, 2012
8:16 am
Adam – Pot was legalized for recreational use in 2 states. But this doesn’t work with Federal law. Do you think the Federal Government will fight that law in those two states?
Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...
November 7th, 2012
8:16 am
Congrat’s to you BO supporters…too bad nothing will change since the jokers still control the house and both the jokers and the clowns will continue on their steady sprial of effectiveness.
My geek posse and i are pretty excited about Nate Silver’s outcomes..his work is still green and all of us were skeptical, but 2 for 2 is damn good…why isn’t he laying odds for NCAA/NFL?
I voted for the guy who wants to legalize weed country wide…seemed appropriate.
How many hangovers are influencing posts this morning?
stands for decibels
November 7th, 2012
8:16 am
Chris Christie is at the gym this morning.
Smart move. Slow but steady the weight will come off and he can be a contendahh.
USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)
November 7th, 2012
8:16 am
“LIBERALS won. Tea Party got… wait for it… SHELLACKED.”
remember 2010??? remember??? that was soooooo a sign of what was to come!! I know this because the righties on this blog told me to be prepared for mer of the same …
Goldie
November 7th, 2012
8:17 am
East Lake Ira — and Thank You!
Jm
November 7th, 2012
8:17 am
Fred
Takes 2 to not tango
Is that the definition of insanity? Then you agree with me, the American voter is insane (though I never actually said that, I just said it was a bit of a head scratcher – voting for gridlock doesn’t seem sensible to me)
stands for decibels
November 7th, 2012
8:17 am
My geek posse and i
The imagery conjured thus is cruel to inflict on the morning Bookmaniax.
Tom Middleton
November 7th, 2012
8:17 am
Me too, Jam!
OBAMASUCKS
November 7th, 2012
8:17 am
Sad, Sad that our country is more concerned with getting free stuff!
USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)
November 7th, 2012
8:18 am
“I may have been the first one to offer to eat my crow. (prediction that Georgia would go to Obama by 1 percentage point)”
wow.
now, THAT was optimistic.
willydoit?
November 7th, 2012
8:18 am
“On the other hand, maybe politicians on both sides will take a harder look at the people in the country, not just the money.”
Americans love money. Some people love their own money they earn, and some folks love other peoples’ money….but Americans LOVE money…so look for nothing in American politics to ever change.
Goldie
November 7th, 2012
8:18 am
“How many hangovers are influencing posts this morning?”
Bwaaaa — I ain’t sayin’!
stands for decibels
November 7th, 2012
8:18 am
remember 2010?
I’m thanking Goddess that 2020 will be a general election and, one hopes, we can get these damn Congressional districts to resemble American humanity again shortly thereafter. Until then, well, what Bette said.
Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...
November 7th, 2012
8:19 am
JAY
Sure sucks about the Charter School amendment…I’m hoping they get busted when they ultimately screw the less fortunate..be great in a sad sense to see the dopes get popped for discrimination…
stands for decibels
November 7th, 2012
8:19 am
2012 SHEETZ.
USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)
November 7th, 2012
8:19 am
“Sad, Sad that our country is more concerned with getting free stuff!”
sad, sad, that you don’t get that your party’s extremism was rejected soundly.
flagboy?
November 7th, 2012
8:19 am
What you see as voting for gridlock, some would say is actually a vote for some kind of moderation.
Jm
November 7th, 2012
8:19 am
Sfd 8:15
It’s a demographic issue
Gale
November 7th, 2012
8:19 am
I just had a conversation with a Republican coworker who thinks the country is doomed. Oddly, we bot agree on many points, social and fiscal. The problem is, the Republicans are pushing candidates that are too hard right facing.
ad
November 7th, 2012
8:21 am
The GOP needs to drop it’s cultural war issues and go back to being a political party focused on growing the economy, defense issues, etc. They’re not going to win anywhere but the South when their platform sounds like it could have been written by the Taliban.
Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...
November 7th, 2012
8:22 am
Wonder if Washington or Colorado will take over for DisneyWorld…as in HoneyBadger, you just won the national championship…whats the first thing you are gonna do? I’m going to Washington state!!!
Fred ™
November 7th, 2012
8:22 am
Jm
November 7th, 2012
8:12 am
Not that it wouldve made a difference
But I wonder how many snowbirds voted twice
We’ll never know I guess
+++++++++++++
Here we go with the conspiracy theories. Let me tell you something pal. I had an really CRAPPY day yesterday dealing with the problems the Republicans caused here in Georgia striking eligible voters and other nasty tricks to suppress the minority vote. I dealt with reality so I don’t really want to hear your lies. Give it a rest and grow up.
USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)
November 7th, 2012
8:22 am
“They’re not going to win anywhere but the South when their platform sounds like it could have been written by the Taliban.”
which says something about the South.
flagboy?
November 7th, 2012
8:22 am
USinUK, i’d argue both parties are going to either end of the extremist spectrum, leaving the middle ground even more.
One thing for sure in this. . . talk about abortion at your own peril. GOP needs to leave the abortion debate.
Fred ™
November 7th, 2012
8:24 am
flagboy?
November 7th, 2012
8:16 am
Adam – Pot was legalized for recreational use in 2 states. But this doesn’t work with Federal law. Do you think the Federal Government will fight that law in those two states?
++++++++++++++++++
Do you think those two states will fight the federal Gov’t/ Colorado has already said they WILL.
I'm a liberal and believe everything I read and nothing the other side comes up with...cause we're smart and they are not
November 7th, 2012
8:24 am
Well, I’m here to say congrats, like I said I would….and goodbye for good with my moniker. I will hang for 10 minutes to read the goodbye’s and the go to hells.Good luck to all.
indigo
November 7th, 2012
8:24 am
Well, cons, the people have spoken and told your Mormon Messiah it’s time to leave.
This is for you, tools.
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q-its+crying+time&mid=e
flagboy?
November 7th, 2012
8:24 am
Then again, i’m from the South, so there’s a good chance I’m an idiot.
. . . .
I SEE RED PEOPLE
November 7th, 2012
8:24 am
Based on the comments of the Usual Suspects and the obvious denial inherent in them, I would not be surprised if the obstructionist House simply antes up in the months to come.
Citizen of the World
November 7th, 2012
8:25 am
Sounds like some of you Republican Conservatives are advocating that your party double down on its intransigence and refuse to compromise or cooperate.
What’s that definition of an idiot again? Oh, yeah. Someone who keeps doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
flagboy?
November 7th, 2012
8:25 am
Fred. . . which way do you see that going?
willydoit?
November 7th, 2012
8:26 am
“The problem is, the Republicans are pushing candidates that are too hard right facing.”
I thought Mitt was a moderate??
They BOTH suck
November 7th, 2012
8:26 am
I’m a lib
Don’t go anywhere……..
Stick around. It has been a blast
gm
November 7th, 2012
8:27 am
fox and friends are sick, latinos, young, blacks, women show that America is not like the south.
I SEE RED PEOPLE
November 7th, 2012
8:27 am
Republican pundits lamenting the fact that their candidate was not conservative enough. Tea Party II, coming soon to a theater near you.
midtownguy
November 7th, 2012
8:37 am
The survival of the GOP depends on them divorcing themselves from the hard right on all social issues and concentrating on economic conservative principals. Many like myself are social liberals but fiscal conservatives (how much farther can we go in debt?). But I voted for Obama because, quite frankly, me and my partner of 20 years, are despised by the right wing of the GOP.
GOP: You only survive is your let abortion, gay rights and immigration go.
pete
November 7th, 2012
8:39 am
Before I leave, someone might want to check on those folks that lost everything 2 weeks ago in hurricane Sandy. Yeah, seems that Obama stopped in for a photo opp last week, had a few pictures taken with Christy, then flew off to Vegas. He may have left some donuts and coffee, but I don’t think it was enough.
Y’all be good to each other. See you in 4 years.
flagboy?
November 7th, 2012
8:53 am
midtownguy, I consider myself conservative, and I agree with you on most points.
Gay rights. In twenty years, this is going to seem as antiquated as Jim Crow. I agree with you absolutely.
Abortion. Agree with you again. Republicans demand less government, but want government in this decision. . insane.
Immigration. . . . I’m not sure how we let immigration go though. We will never be able to deport the illegals that are here. But I’m all for making real efforts to stop people from jumping the border. What do you mean by letting go of immigration?
Adam
November 7th, 2012
8:53 am
Fred: Only because the asshat nutcase republicans won’t compromise will there be 2 more years of gridlock. Look where THAT stupid obstructuionist crap got you. It got you tossed FIRMLY out of the White House.
True. However after last night I think they might actually compromise on a few things. We’ll see, but I am hopeful this time.
Dekalb comments
November 7th, 2012
8:57 am
Bye Pete. We won’t miss your vacuous, mindless, posts that are rooted only in your mind and not in fact.
I will be retired in 4 years and with my investments safely in the Cayman Islands (I am attending GWB’s next training session on how to avoid American taxes), I will be living abroad in luxury.
Enjoy.
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
November 7th, 2012
9:05 am
SUCK IT, LOSERS!—No. 1 Foxy Lady
D’OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH!
Bookman, I thought you was going to ban her.
I'm a liberal and believe everything I read and nothing the other side comes up with...cause we're smart and they are not
November 7th, 2012
9:19 am
Midtownguy…………..So you want 40 million Christians to abandon their beliefs to satisfy a political agenda?
retired early
November 7th, 2012
9:32 am
Great victory for the “Liberal” party. This is the beginning of the end for the Hard Right GOP. They voted against their more moderate Senators and Reps in favor of the “Tea Party” hardliners in the primaries, and it cost them control of the Senate….ya just gotta love it.
The economy will continue to improve, the jobless rate will continue downward and new home construction ( that which is responsible for a huge part of economic growth ) will accelerate.
That vastly improved economy will do in the GOP…nationally, while we citizens here in Georgia will continue to suffer from GOP control, i.e. loss of 35 billion to fund expanding medicaid coverage to the working poor, funding Charter schools at the expense of public education, traffic gridlock, loss of even more Health professionals to other states ( that accepted the infusion of funds provided by the Affordable Healthcare Act). All hospitals struggling to stay open will hike their rates on those who have insurance but many Rural hospitals will still be forced to close.
Hopefully, once the GOP agenda bears it’s bitter fruit, we will have all the proof we need to change leadership in this Red State. The contrast between the Red and Blue States will truly be startling. By that time even the hardcore among you rightwing voters will finally have to admit that best path to prosperity for all… is the “Progressive” agenda. At last….the perfect storm of economic suicide here in the South VS the economic boom in the rest of the Nation will come to past.
It all began last night and I think the GOP knows it.
Dekalb comments
November 7th, 2012
9:45 am
@I’m a liberal (followed by a bunch of jibberish)
It is up to those voters what they want to do. The nation is becoming much more ethnically diverse and a nation where more and more people are embracing concepts of equality and choice.
So rather than having the government dictate what people can and cannot do (e.g. same-sex marriage, make reproductive choices) I suggest those that disapprove of those things attempt to convert people to their view such that their PRIVATE behavior conforms to those beliefs.
But to open to employers whether they provide health insurance that covers birth control, or cancer or erectile dysfunction is a very slippery slope. The idea of religious freedom is one that was used for years to justify segregation and why restaurant owners in the South refused to serve African-Americans.
one and only
November 7th, 2012
11:30 am
good job son,, we went to bed at 10, could not take anymore, glad Obama took it. We will be around this weekend, call when you have time