Rasmussen polling data make Obama the favorite

I don’t know who will win the presidency come Nov. 6. I do know, however, that at this point, based on polling, Barack Obama remains the clear favorite to win an electoral-college majority.

I understand that’s a controversial statement among some. Sites such as Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com have become targets of sustained attacks and critiques by supporters of Mitt Romney for making similar statements. But it’s nonetheless true.

To document that claim, let’s take a look at the race using a data source that ought to sidestep all conservative claims of “skewed polling” and “media bias,” etc. Let’s examine it using numbers generated solely by Rasmussen, using definitions of “leaning” and “tossup” states as applied by Rasmussen. And before we do, let’s take a moment to establish just how Republican-leaning the Rasmussen numbers really are by looking at state polling data.

Colorado: Rasmussen has Romney up by four points, which is a fairly large margin. Yet of the 10 polls released in that state in the last two weeks, eight have Obama up. The only only other poll showing a Romney lead in Colorado — an American Research Group poll released Oct. 28 — has Romney up by just one.

Ohio: Of the 21 polls released in the past two weeks, only one — Rasmussen — has Romney in the lead, in Rasmussen’s case a lead of two points. Most other polls give Obama a two-to-five-point lead.

Wisconsin: Rasmussen’s latest poll, released Oct. 25, puts Paul Ryan’s home state in a tie. Every other poll conducted in the state since Aug. 21 — more than two dozen in all — has put Obama ahead, the most recent ones by a margin of two to six points.

Now, it may turn out that Rasmussen is right and almost everyone else is wrong. That can’t be discounted. But for our purposes, there’s no doubt that by using Rasmussen in our analysis, we are using numbers most favorable to the Republican cause.

And what does Rasmussen tell us?

Well, if you look at its electoral college map, using Rasmussen-generated polling data, we find the following breakdown:

Obama and Obama-leaning states: 237 electoral votes
Romney and Romney-leaning states: 206 electoral votes
Tossups: 95 electoral votes

In other words, to get to the magical 270 electoral votes, Romney needs to win 64 of the 95 tossup votes available. That’s 67.4 percent, or two out of three available votes.

To get to the magical 270 votes, Obama needs to win just 33 of the 95 tossup votes, basically a little more than one out of every three tossup votes.

That’s why Obama is the favorite. Having to win one out of three is a lot easier than having to win two out of three.

It is true, of course, that favorites don’t always win. The Florida Gators were favored over the Georgia Bulldogs last week in Jacksonville, but the Gators got beat. Six turnovers will do that to you almost every time, and that’s a turn of events that the oddsmakers didn’t anticipate. Likewise, it is entirely feasible that come Tuesday — especially given a somewhat wacky polling environment — Obama will join the Gators on the long list of favorites who went down in defeat.

But using the data source most favorable to the Republican cause, that’s not the way to bet.

– Jay Bookman

783 comments Add your comment

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

October 31st, 2012
11:28 pm

Where’s the $5-6 a gallon gasoline by election day?

td

October 31st, 2012
11:32 pm

You don’t say

October 31st, 2012
11:25 pm

Why save the post because you will either not be hear when Romney wins or you will be posting under another handle and claiming you knew it all along.

BTW: Myself and cc are two different people. I have given Jim permission several times to post if we were different and no response. cc will not even come to this blog because he thinks you are way to radical to even attempt to have a sane conversation with. In other words he suffers fools less then I do.

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

October 31st, 2012
11:34 pm

I have given Jim permission several times to post if we were different and no response.

What does “Jim” have to do with a blog hosted by Jay Bookman?

You don't say

October 31st, 2012
11:37 pm

td

Save the post. You, cc and Romney are sitting ducks and do not even know it.

Please do not do anything too crazy after the election.

td

October 31st, 2012
11:37 pm

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

October 31st, 2012
11:34 pm

Again if you would actually read and comprehend then you would notice that I said cc does not come to this blog and the other poster is claiming two different posters are the same person. Understand now or do I need to break it down for you more?

td

October 31st, 2012
11:40 pm

You don’t say

October 31st, 2012
11:37 pm

It is not the Conservatives threatening to “burn this MF down” or to riot if Romney does not win.

Conservatives will be fine because we will still control the house and with it the money.

You don't say

October 31st, 2012
11:41 pm

td

It is going to be alright. Do not do anything rash.

You don't say

October 31st, 2012
11:43 pm

td

I am instructing you to keep calm for your own good.

If you get so heated as the states start being called for Obama; stop, drop and roll as if you were on fire.

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

October 31st, 2012
11:49 pm

Again if you would actually read and comprehend then you would notice that I said cc does not come to this blog and the other poster is claiming two different posters are the same person.

OK let’s revisit your post, shall we?

td

October 31st, 2012
11:32 pm

You don’t say

October 31st, 2012
11:25 pm

Why save the post because you will either not be hear when Romney wins or you will be posting under another handle and claiming you knew it all along.

BTW: Myself and cc are two different people. I have given Jim permission several times to post if we were different and no response. cc will not even come to this blog because he thinks you are way to radical to even attempt to have a sane conversation with. In other words he suffers fools less then I do.

Again — what does “Jim” have to do with a blog hosted by Jay Bookman?

If you would actually read and comprehend, you would notice that I said nothing at all about “cc”.

td

October 31st, 2012
11:57 pm

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

October 31st, 2012
11:49 pm

Never mind, it is useless. Go back to worshiping the garments of your messiah and chief and leave the real discussions between the more wise.

Numeros

October 31st, 2012
11:59 pm

Ed wrote: “In the 2008 elections Rassmussen had a 92% accuracy on the outcome of the election. All other polls were as low as 30%-65% . So it doesn’t matter what other polls say, they are not as accurate as rasmussen”

I believe you’re referring to the “Report Card” found here: http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php#reportcard

That Report Card is outdated and invalid. Notice that the data used is from November 12th, before all ballots had been tallied. It uses an incorrect spread of a 6.5 win for Obama, when he in fact won by 7.2 percent. Notice it says Rasmussen’s 6-point spread was off by 0.5. Wrong again. Rasmussen was actually off by 1.2 percent. Notice how it says CNN & Ipsos were both off by 0.5. Wrong again. They were in fact more accurate than Rasmussen with their 7-point spread, being off by only 0.2 percent.

Rasmussen was not the most accurate pollster in 2008.

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

October 31st, 2012
11:59 pm

Never mind, it is useless.

You really just can’t keep track of which blog you are posting on, can you?

Too funny!

You don't say

November 1st, 2012
12:00 am

td

You are not part of the “more wise” even from a conservative perspective. Might be best for you to heed your own advice.

Look before I leap...

November 1st, 2012
12:02 am

@Thulsa
Sorry man.
In terms of GDP:
In 1929 when the great depression hit, the US GDP halved over 4 years. It did not reach its pre-crash levels until 1940, a full 11 years later.

In terms of the recession of 2008, the US GDP dropped by about 3% and we reached pre-recession levels by the end of 2010.

We can throw economic stats back forth all day and the unemployment rate (which some use as a recession marker) remains stubbornly high. The recovery is tepid but it IS a recovery and if you have specific factors to discuss regarding what could have been done to accelerate the recovery I am all ears.

Look before I leap...

November 1st, 2012
12:08 am

@td
The 269-269 number did not come up
I could run the model another 100 times and it might come up once, maybe twice.
Not sure why you want the thing decided in the HOR – is it not better for the republic to have the winner enter with at least a minimal mandate?

Look before I leap...

November 1st, 2012
12:11 am

Gonna go out on a limb here, while td and cc share many of the same views, I am fairly certain they are not the same person.

cc has a much better grasp of both grammar and spelling than does td.

No offense td, just the way I see it.

Look before I leap...

November 1st, 2012
12:32 am

@td

“It is not the Conservatives threatening to “burn this MF down” or to riot if Romney does not win.”

It is not the liberal bloc making that claim either!

It is a noisy group of race-baiters who number at most in the hundreds.
Probably the same number of white supremecists who vowed to off any negro who was uppity enough to run for POTUS.

Neither side represents either true liberal or conservative values.

And shame on you for making that insinuation. It gets harder and harder to take you seriously man.

The Thin Guy

November 1st, 2012
12:40 am

Need to cut The Incredibly Reverend Joseph Lowery some slack. At 91 he can’t see the teleprompter and his hearing aid is tuned to Snoop Dog Dump. But I do hope he has misread the scriptures. I would hate to spend eternity with Bookman. The man has horrible judgement when it comes to politics, music, and movies. Plus based on what I know about him he cheats at cards.

Back in 2005 the left wing intelligentsia claimed that Dubya had a Weather Machine and could dial up an earthquake, tornado, or hurricane anytime he wanted. Even for a group not renowned for even rudimentary cognitive skills, that was just too bizarre. Even more puzzling is why Dubya would want to create Hurricane Katrina. But they might be on to something. Maybe it was left in the Oval Office and used by Jug Ears to create Hurricane Sandy.

Hurricane Sandy has certainly helped to draw the attention of the American people from the fact that Zippy is the most inept, incompetent, corrupt, mendacious, murdering, evil tyrant to ever illegally seize power in the history of civilization and the greatest disaster to befall the human race since Bubonic Plague. He has destroyed our economy and developed a foreign policy that makes North Korea look like Switzerland. But the hurricane has provided cover and now he can go on free tv: This is Your pResident Bampøt Hussein Høøver ØDumbø, the Killer of Osama bin Biden and your wallet, with an important public service announcement: It’s raining out there. Put your rubbers on before going outdoors. Or if you are Sandra Fluke before going to the Shriners Convention.

Only one politician in history has ever claimed to be able to control the weather: ØDumbø. Not even Caligula who declared himself to be a living god stated he could alter the weather. But Zippy did when he said that he was going to lower the sea levels and heal the planet. But the flooding on the east coast illustrates his perfidy.

Truly The Indonesian Imbecile is the most evil excuse for a human being to walk the North American continent since Blackbeard the Pirate. Oh well, next Tuesday will spend however long it takes to cancel Bookman’s vote.

Ed

November 1st, 2012
1:10 am

MetaM

November 1st, 2012
1:55 am

Watch all the right wing zealots vanish as the winner bias starts to take hold. As the clock runs down, states will want to be on the winning side to be more favorably looked upon. Suddenly, two out of three voters on the street will swear he or she voted for Obama. And if government is to work, voters had better return a House and Senate more cooperative than before, or America will sink as a nation.

stands for decibels

November 1st, 2012
6:02 am

mornin’.

onward hebrew jedi master…

Schlepping as to war!

Normal Free...Pro Human Rights Thug...And liking it!

November 1st, 2012
6:09 am

Good, good sugar high morning to all y’all!

Some breakfast charts with your peanut better cup and coffee…

http://cheezburger.com/6690564864

Orange12

November 1st, 2012
6:15 am

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

November 1st, 2012
6:16 am

mmmmmmmmm. chart-y goodness.

Normal Free...Pro Human Rights Thug...And liking it!

November 1st, 2012
6:16 am

Orange12

November 1st, 2012
6:17 am

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

November 1st, 2012
6:17 am

Orange – which is why Dems have been calling for paper back-up since 2000 … but, noooooooooo, it’s not a problem, we hear from the right … noooooooooo, the electronic voting machines work just fine, we hear from the right … nothing to see here, move along …

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

November 1st, 2012
6:21 am

“Schlepping as to war!”

oy! the pain only my enemies should know …

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2mAd5phjeU&feature=related

Orange12

November 1st, 2012
6:28 am

Obamacare is kind of like “Trick or Treat” isn’t it?

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

November 1st, 2012
6:29 am

“Obamacare is kind of like “Trick or Treat” isn’t it?”

um. no.

Brosephus™

November 1st, 2012
6:30 am

Conservatives will be fine because we will still control the house and with it the money.

If that’s the case, why are conservatives b*itching and whining about trillion dollar deficits? Conservatives control the House and the money, right?

Cherokee

November 1st, 2012
6:55 am

Orange12

I’m not surprised.

Since Romney’s son’s company provided the machines? They’re changing votes to Obama?

Righhhhttttt…

Normal Free...Pro Human Rights Thug...And liking it!

November 1st, 2012
6:57 am

USinUK,
WOW! Was that a bridge and rum? :)

AU Liberal in ATL

November 1st, 2012
7:00 am

There’s another reason President Obama is the favorite in this race: He’s done a good job so far and he’s a far better choice than the other guy. It’s really very simple for anyone who’s been paying attention and is not swayed by the lies, distortion and radical, right wing propaganda.

Bill Campbell

November 1st, 2012
7:03 am

The worst US President in history will lose and the country will be saved from this extreme radical!!

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

November 1st, 2012
7:08 am

“Was that a bridge and rum?”

????

“The worst US President in history will lose and the country will be saved from this extreme radical!!”

no, W served all 8 years. don’t you read the papers?

Atlantarama

November 1st, 2012
7:19 am

I shutter to think how Romney would handle a terrorist attack on this country. For a change, the Democrat is the stronger leader.

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

November 1st, 2012
7:19 am

Why Nate rocks: he shows his work (unlike … oh … ANY of the pollsters on the right)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

November 1st, 2012
7:20 am

Atlantarama – shudder (verb)

shutter (noun)

Sincerely,
Conan the Grammarian.

Atlantarama

November 1st, 2012
7:23 am

I shudder to think how Romney would handle a terrorist attack on this country. For a change, the Democrat is the stronger leader.

Satisfied?

Mick

November 1st, 2012
7:23 am

usinuk

Hey, my brother met a nice brit lady and is moving across the pond next month. I told him he was crazy and that the nice brit lady would probably prefer florida and the weather but…he wants a change of country for awhile. I give him six months, tops…

Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette

November 1st, 2012
7:29 am

“Rasmussen polling data make Obama the favorite”

Nope,

the American people and the world and President Obama himself did that!

stands for decibels

November 1st, 2012
7:30 am

If I dare cite the very effeminate and not-credible-cuz-he-looks-kinda-ghey Nate again, I find it interesting that his latest blog post actually gives readers a ton of other, alternative–and yes, COMPETITIVE!–polling analysts to review to see where they’re placing the state polling.

Basically, they all say it leans Obama’s way, this nonsense about Mitt having some kind of “momentum” that he can ride to victory is a crock, and that unless there’s some weird, consistently-wrong aspect to all of the polling going on, that’s how it’s likely to play out next week.

Oh, and the overnight recalcs have the Big O hitting the 300 EV mark, and 79% probability, and some people probably don’t even want to click on the “Now-cast” linkee over there.

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

November 1st, 2012
7:32 am

Atlantarama – knowing that I’m helping people become more proficient in the language is satisfaction, indeed.

stands for decibels

November 1st, 2012
7:32 am

UnU, I’ve never seen Crossing Delancy and can’t really hear the audio from your link at the moment (thank you, construction crew upstairs, could we have a little more Sawzall? that’d be nice…)

…is it a “ought to see before you die” movie, or maybe something that doesn’t hold up years later?

Mick

November 1st, 2012
7:33 am

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

November 1st, 2012
7:34 am

Mick – when is he coming over?? Winter is dark and damp, but the brits KNOW how to do Cmas right! I never thought I’d say it, but they do Cmas far better than Americans.

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

November 1st, 2012
7:36 am

dB – I’d say that, if you liked Moonstruck, you’d like Crossing Delancy. I don’t know why, but I really like it

it seems to hold up to the test of time considering it came out in the 80s and doesn’t really feel like it

Mick

November 1st, 2012
7:36 am

usinuk

December the 3rd, She was over here in march of last year and loved florida but my brother, with his kids all gone, wants to give it a shot. I dunno, florida or UK? I’ll stick with the heat…

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

November 1st, 2012
7:38 am

Mick – yeah, but Europe is just a train ride away if you’re here – the UK is a GREAT jumping-off point if you’re all about the travel :-)

Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette

November 1st, 2012
7:39 am

USinUK

I fell for the pickle guy too……

Aquagirl

November 1st, 2012
7:42 am

If I dare cite the very effeminate and not-credible-cuz-he-looks-kinda-ghey Nate again

Holy cow, I never thought to rate pollsters by their sexual attractiveness. But then I’m not a conservative Republican stuck deep in the closet.

Mick

November 1st, 2012
7:43 am

usinuk

I agree with that but you need some dineros or else you might as well get a bike and in the winter – I don’t think so. He’s a plumber by trade and his gal says that she has some work lined up for him. If it doesn’t work out, there’s always new jersey to come back to…

stands for decibels

November 1st, 2012
7:43 am

I’d say that, if you liked Moonstruck

hmm. I didn’t like Moonstruck at the time, but I suspect I might find it hilarious today. And if I told you why that is, I might have to kill you, so I’ll leave it at that.

stands for decibels

November 1st, 2012
7:44 am

never thought to rate pollsters by their sexual attractiveness

AG, I messed up the TBoggian linkee, but if you’d like to know more…

http://tbogg.firedoglake.com/2012/10/26/unskewed-studmuffin-dean-chambers-does-not-care-for-nate-silvers-dickless-polling/

stands for decibels

November 1st, 2012
7:44 am

oh, and a belated coffee-tru-da-nose alert on the image from my link @ 7.44.

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

November 1st, 2012
7:45 am

“And if I told you why that is, I might have to kill you, so I’ll leave it at that.”

I like the movie DESPITE Nicholas Cage, who I think is … just … AWFUL.

Normal Free...Pro Human Rights Thug...And liking it!

November 1st, 2012
7:48 am

USinUk,
Sorry, I meant in your 0621 video with the teeth in the drink…

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

November 1st, 2012
7:49 am

“Holy cow, I never thought to rate pollsters by their sexual attractiveness. But then I’m not a conservative Republican stuck deep in the closet.”

reminds me of a TBoggism “some people choose celibacy … for others, celibacy chooses them”

stands for decibels

November 1st, 2012
7:53 am

Yippee!

the national emergency is now officially over–

foxnews.com is now devoting the top-story spot to the Butthurt-over-Benghazi-Brigade, and there are now FOUR count’em FOUR! linkees to satisfy the needs of our butt-hurties.

(So, y’all might want to brace yourselves for that.)

beam me up

November 1st, 2012
7:56 am

Polls are obviously biased, except when they favor Romney. However, this doesn’t happen very often, because Romney is a wretchedly bad candidate. Seriously, I feel embarassed for people who feel compelled to stick a sign with the man’s name in their yard or a bumper sticker on their car. He is just such a disingenuous cad. I’m not just dogging him here. The only other candidate I’ve ever felt this way about was Michael Dukakis. If you are in the same league as Michael Dukakis,you aren’t going to win.

Aquagirl

November 1st, 2012
8:05 am

a belated coffee-tru-da-nose alert on the image from my link

What, Mr. I’m Not Ghey Because I Haz A Double Chin, or his crazy electoral map? I notice the only states he begrudged Obama were clearly gay-infested (California) or flaccid (Vermont.)

Poor fella.

GT

November 1st, 2012
8:20 am

I thought God was going to blow them away in Tampa at their convention to give them a taste of how not caring for your follow man is not a stable in His gospel. Instead He saved them went on to New Orleans to remind us all of the fumbling Republican Party and how we are all at a disadvantage with them calling His shots.

Now a storm right before the election, and a smooth eye opening response to the help and security of Americans. And we are Americans first not a rag tag bunch of hill people holding out in the mountains of southern America waiting for the second coming with hate in our hearts. These people love that book of Revelation thinking it is all about the other guy, as they bring us closer to it with their lack of stewardship.

GT

November 1st, 2012
8:29 am

beam me up I feel the exact same way. The running in place with his baby steps like a volcano before he erupts into another lie drives me crazy. The look on his face to sell these lies drives me crazy and the lies themselves insult every American that carries them forward for this guy by putting signs in their front yard. You want to know what is wrong with America you are looking at it. You can’t run anything on a weak foundation of reality. That is why so many marriages go bad now days, children are abandon, lying is escaping responsibility. Lying to me is like the anti drug people talk about going up the scale to harder and harder drugs, well offer lying is the crack in the foundation that makes us wake up to a Watergate or a Viet Nam or corruption of local government, Madoff, mortgage back securities that cause half the houses in this country to come back to the bank, recession…

Reality Check

November 1st, 2012
8:33 am

I love how libs like to spin things. I am not ignorant of the fact that this is a tight race. However, I am also not ignorant of the fact that in many past elections Rasmussen has been one of the most accurate predictor of the actual election results.

Now, since you are using Rasmussen to “prove” that Obama is the clear favorite because Romney on has only 206 solid electoral votes, you must hope that the these polls are wrong. Based on current results on the site, Romney leads in Colarado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia which would put 73 additional electoral votes in Romney’s camp. Do the math!

Again, I am only focusing on Rasmussen because it’s the one used in this article to “prove” Obama is going to win, but conveniently, the finer details of the poll are left out.

Jym Allyn

November 1st, 2012
8:49 am

The Republican delusion is the same as for alcoholics regardless of whether they are or are not drinking: Alcoholics never know when they are lying.
Point in proof: “Mission Accomplished.”

gtt

November 1st, 2012
9:03 am

Most of those “turnovers” were UGA “takeaways.”

Bill

November 1st, 2012
9:04 am

What is wrong with the media?!?! Good lord this is despicable. I have been following Rasmussen polls because they are the only ones even trying to present an accurate picture (if you want to debate that go back to polling data in 08 to verify my claim. Most had Obama winning by 9-13% Rasmussen had him by 7%. He won by 7%) and they are not predicting an Obama victory. They do have him leading in the # of secured electoral votes… AND the number of leaning states. In the toss up states Romney is shown cleaning up. By narrow margins granted but winning Fl, Ohio, and Col among others. If you want to site another poll that shows Obama as a clear favorite that’s fine there are several to chose from but stop twisting the truth. You can argue your headline doesnt lie but it clearly misleads and misrepresents reality.

Numeros

November 1st, 2012
9:43 am

@Bill,

Most did not have Obama winning by 9-13% in 2008. A sampling of 20 top pollsters shows
Three had Obama by 5.
Three had him by 6.
Four had him by 7.
Four had him by 8.
Three had him by 9.
Three had him by 11.

And Rasmussen did not have Obama winning by 7. He had Obama by 6: 52/46.
CNN & Ipsos were the two who nailed it with 7: 53/46.

Reality Check

November 1st, 2012
9:55 am

Jym Allyn, when the facts aren’t on your side, resort to name calling, innuendo, and bad analogies. IF, you are going to site a source and use it as proof positive of a given outcome, then you must use ALL the facts, from that source; not just the ones convenient to your desired result.

As Bill pointed out, Rasmussen was the only one in 2008 that had the actual outcome right in the polls. That is a verifiable fact, maybe inconvenient to you, but it is fact. Again, I am not saying anything about the election being a lock for Romney, but if you are going to site sources, be honest in your facts. Based on the Rasmussen poll that Mr. Bookman sited to prove Obama’s going to win, the current results show 273 electoral votes either locked for, leaning toward, or slightly favoring Romney.

Numeros

November 1st, 2012
10:17 am

@Reality Check

Rasmussen did NOT have the actual outcome right in 2008. Even Rasmussen admits that. I quote from the Rasmussen website: “Barack Obama won 53%-46%, and our final poll showed him winning 52% to 46%”

Two pollsters DID nail the final outcome however. They were CNN and Ipsos, who both showed Obama winning 53% to 46%. This information is easily verifiable on sites such as Real Clear Politics.

Elizabeth Agee

November 1st, 2012
10:47 am

Four years ago the US was losing 159,000 jobs per month. December of
2008 the US actually lost 524,000 jobs for the month. Now we are creating an
average 120,000 jobs per month. The unemployment rate has gone down under this
administration, to 7.8%. Not ideal, but we are moving in the right direction.
You don’t have to take it from me. We have the Bureau
of Labor Statistics. You can Google them and go to their website. The
Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Business Survey
Committee reports that manufacturing is growing at the highest level since
2007. Again don’t take it from me. Google them for their website. Please
do not let others trick you into believing things are worse. We are getting
better, America. Let’s stay the course and vote for Obama.

You can check this data at the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS) site.
Or just do a search for jobs report December 2008. Do the same for September 2012 and you’ll find that 120,000 jobs were
created.

cman

November 1st, 2012
11:13 am

How can anyone with any intelligence be deceived by Obama? We are disheartened by the inability of Obama to carry through on any of the promises he made prior to the 2008 election. People vote on personality and not on performance. Obama has never been successful in any of his endeavors! I will probably wake up Wednesday morning in deep depression. Once again, the American voters have been hoodwinked! Typical and disappointing!!

12th man

November 1st, 2012
11:41 am

What this guy fails to tell you is that of the 9 swing states Romney is leading in 6 of them, tied in 2 and the only one Obama leads in is Nevada. If a state is tied its going to go red because the undecided vote always overwhelmingly 70-80% goes for the challenger. So according to rasmussen Romney will win 8 of the 9 toss up states. That’s 89 more electorial votes to add to Romneys 206 and 6 more electorial votes to add to Obamas 237. That makes it Romney 295- Obama 243. Romney will win the popular vote 52-48.

american

November 1st, 2012
12:10 pm

Dear Jay,
Rasmussen’s latest state electoral college polls and my math show: Romney 267, Obama 243 and still tied 19 votes. Even if Pres. Obama gets both IA and WI (the 19 votes) that puts him at 262.

Mighty Righty

November 1st, 2012
12:15 pm

Strange analysis but completely expected. First Jay says the data is based on Rassmussen polls then immediately discounts Rassmussen polls. Only an Obama sycophant could deduce in such a way. LOL. Use or not use but to pick and choose is dishonest.

Joe

November 1st, 2012
12:16 pm

Made a bet with A republican friend of mine about 6 months ago. I told him that i would eat feces if obama didnt win re-election. I am neither republican nor democrat, but i just call things the way i see them. Recently, (now that my friend thinks romney is going to win), my friend has kindly said that i will now be allowed to jist rub my hands in feces instead of ingesting it if romney were to win.

All bets aside, in this election i am voting for the 3rd choice. Yes, the 3rd choice…. The libertarian partys, GARY JOHNSON.

If gary johnson were to get a minimum of 5% of the popular vote, it would also allow the libertarian party (the fastest growing party in america), equal ballot acces, participation in debates, and additional federal funding. There are many americans that dont generally vote due to the electoral college system. Realistically, in the past 20+ years, when voting for repub or dem in states such as texas, california, new york, etc….. your vote just doesnt count!! It is my hope that some day, we will have better choices than these 2 parties that most feel they have to choose from. Remember – this year…… there is another choice. Even if you dont believe in the liberitarian party belief system, your vote would be for a 3rd party in the future. It would keep the beurocrats in washington on their toes….and just 5% of the popular vote could change this perminantly!! The libertarian party is closer to my belief system than either of these 2 parties, although i do disagree with some of their beliefs. I do believe we need a federal government who is relied upon for services (dissimilar to what the libertarian party currently claims to stand for). Libertarian party also believes in the legalization of drugs. (I dont believe in this). However, when listening to gary johnson speak (on youtube), he is a realist and knows and agrees with all of this. Mainly, I just want another choice in the future than these 2 beurocrats running for president this year. Now, things are bad in this country, dont get me wrong. But im no more sure of who romney is and what he stands for then i was 6 months ago. Like many, i was surprised to see how rommey came out strong at the first debate. But i was also surprised at how bad he was in the 3rd debate. This was romneys chance to shine! Obamas foreign policy has been horrible! Romney could have pointed out egypt, lybia, syria, iran…..whats next? He barely pointed out our horrible stance in isreal. (our only ally and most important ally in this region). Gary johnson pointed out what romney said regarding our aid to pakistan and weather we shuld continue aid….Romneys response (paraphrased) “of course we should continue aid. they have nuclear weapons, so we habe to be their friend and continue aid”. Gary johnson pointed this out and rightly asks…what kind of message this sends? Get nukes and we will be your friend? Ridiculous statement for someone who is so close to the whitehouse door. I understand romney had to play it safe, agreeing with obamas foreign policy….(since he nor his running mate have zero foreign policy experience), but that comment is ludicrous. If you are unsure because you hate them both, vote Gary Johnson 2012. You are voting for a future where there will be another choice! Thanks for reading.

Suze Wiggins

November 1st, 2012
4:25 pm

If this analysis were presented in a corporate setting to senior management, you’d be tossed out before you even began. Their standards of analysis and decision-making are so much higher than the press because the future of the company could be at stake. What believable analysis says that polls taken 2 months before the election should be given equal or greater weight to polls taken 1 week before the election. Isn’t it logical that at least some of the undecideds 2 months ago have become committed voters in the polling one week before the election? There are more glaring holes in the analysis, but I’m too tired to go into it all. I hope most readers have smarter analysitical minds than this author.

Jack

November 1st, 2012
6:02 pm

LOL @ making the big bucks. This guy is a nobody. I agree with his conclusion that Obama will win. Yes his is also right in teaching us all the idea that 2 is in fact easier to win than 1. What a deep thinking this silly clown is… A nobody in a world where you make money based on being a somebody. Back to jerking off to a picture or Mitch Album for this hack. Perhaps if he grows his hair past his ears we will have heard of him?

Sarah

November 1st, 2012
8:08 pm

Rasmussen only polls landlines, and the social media is connected through cell phones. A whole demographic is missing — therefore, their polling is suspect. I think Obama — perhaps a squeaker, but Obama. He took over this country on the brink of financial collapse, then had only two years to get anything done. What do Americans expect to repair the damage of the Bush-Cheney incompetence?

Rabbit

November 1st, 2012
9:36 pm

The horror. Eastwood on Hannity. He’s been one of my screen idols for almost 50 years. Shades of Zell. I know Clint’s been a Republican a long time, but I had him pegged as a centrist. No centrist I know would share the camera with Hannity

chellier

November 2nd, 2012
7:17 am

You may want to visit the Rasmussen website, all toss ups favor Romney except one tie… very and misleading piece…Obama: 237 – Romney: 206 – Toss-up: 95

Momof4

November 2nd, 2012
9:01 am

I can’t believe that anyone would vote for Obama after the whole benghazi situation. Four americans died because their request for more security was denied. The 2 Navy Seals may have lived had the request for help been granted when the attack began. (Those Navy Seals are heros because they believed no man should be left behind) Too bad Obama would not help the men in Benghazi. And now everyone wants to applaud because he is “helping” during the huricaine? Where has he been the last 4 years? How crazy is it that anyone thinks Obama cares about anything but winning the election? But I guess those out there crazy enough to vote for Obama again do not want to know the truth. Obama has done nothing for the economy. My health insurance premiums have gone up and are going up again this year. The price of gas is crazy yet he blocked the Keystone Pipeline.