Rasmussen polling data make Obama the favorite
I don’t know who will win the presidency come Nov. 6. I do know, however, that at this point, based on polling, Barack Obama remains the clear favorite to win an electoral-college majority.
I understand that’s a controversial statement among some. Sites such as Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com have become targets of sustained attacks and critiques by supporters of Mitt Romney for making similar statements. But it’s nonetheless true.
To document that claim, let’s take a look at the race using a data source that ought to sidestep all conservative claims of “skewed polling” and “media bias,” etc. Let’s examine it using numbers generated solely by Rasmussen, using definitions of “leaning” and “tossup” states as applied by Rasmussen. And before we do, let’s take a moment to establish just how Republican-leaning the Rasmussen numbers really are by looking at state polling data.
Colorado: Rasmussen has Romney up by four points, which is a fairly large margin. Yet of the 10 polls released in that state in the last two weeks, eight have Obama up. The only only other poll showing a Romney lead in Colorado — an American Research Group poll released Oct. 28 — has Romney up by just one.
Ohio: Of the 21 polls released in the past two weeks, only one — Rasmussen — has Romney in the lead, in Rasmussen’s case a lead of two points. Most other polls give Obama a two-to-five-point lead.
Wisconsin: Rasmussen’s latest poll, released Oct. 25, puts Paul Ryan’s home state in a tie. Every other poll conducted in the state since Aug. 21 — more than two dozen in all — has put Obama ahead, the most recent ones by a margin of two to six points.
Now, it may turn out that Rasmussen is right and almost everyone else is wrong. That can’t be discounted. But for our purposes, there’s no doubt that by using Rasmussen in our analysis, we are using numbers most favorable to the Republican cause.
And what does Rasmussen tell us?
Well, if you look at its electoral college map, using Rasmussen-generated polling data, we find the following breakdown:
Obama and Obama-leaning states: 237 electoral votes
Romney and Romney-leaning states: 206 electoral votes
Tossups: 95 electoral votes
In other words, to get to the magical 270 electoral votes, Romney needs to win 64 of the 95 tossup votes available. That’s 67.4 percent, or two out of three available votes.
To get to the magical 270 votes, Obama needs to win just 33 of the 95 tossup votes, basically a little more than one out of every three tossup votes.
That’s why Obama is the favorite. Having to win one out of three is a lot easier than having to win two out of three.
It is true, of course, that favorites don’t always win. The Florida Gators were favored over the Georgia Bulldogs last week in Jacksonville, but the Gators got beat. Six turnovers will do that to you almost every time, and that’s a turn of events that the oddsmakers didn’t anticipate. Likewise, it is entirely feasible that come Tuesday — especially given a somewhat wacky polling environment — Obama will join the Gators on the long list of favorites who went down in defeat.
But using the data source most favorable to the Republican cause, that’s not the way to bet.
– Jay Bookman
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783 comments Add your comment
Joe Hussein Mama
October 31st, 2012
3:39 pm
Fred — “So what’s the best way to respond?”
http://weknowmemes.com/2012/03/take-maus-is-gift/
They BOTH suck
October 31st, 2012
3:40 pm
Kam
Been there several times. Met Abdullah when I was there once. Nice guy.
Black eye peas, green beans, hamburger steak, sweet tea and a piece of cornbread……… Can’t beat it for the money.
josef
October 31st, 2012
3:41 pm
So, is somebody bashing the South? Some of us know Southerners are statistically verifiably superior to our Northern cousins in at least the most important category known to man…
Eh, Brosephus and Imam…
Brosephus™
October 31st, 2012
3:41 pm
EC
You should be OK if that’s where you are. Anywhere near either border is dangerous territory because of the drug wars. Mexico City has issues from time to time, but I talk to business people who travel there weekly, and they’re pretty comfortable with traveling there.
Look before I leap...
October 31st, 2012
3:42 pm
“I think Christie’s trying, in his own way, to look “presidential” and above-the-fray in a time of crisis. I think it’s working.”
Or maybe he is simply putting the needs of his constituents above partisan politics.
Same result though, means he gets a pretty nice image boost.
There must be some reason a very blue state like NJ voted him into office.
Fred ™
October 31st, 2012
3:42 pm
Kam? Do they have a tv and show football? If so sounds like a good place to meet up and watch the feetball.
ad
October 31st, 2012
3:42 pm
I think if Christie got himself a personal trainer and, maybe took an anger management course or two, he’d be the 2016 nominee. Maybe he can change parties before then.
Get Real
October 31st, 2012
3:43 pm
The evening of 11/6 should be most interesting….if it goes into the morning of 11/7 then we are headed for a 2000 flashback…yikes
They BOTH suck
October 31st, 2012
3:45 pm
Fred
Abdullah’s might have one or two tvs, but it wouldn’t be a good spot for game watching.
Cafeteria style and NO BEER……..
Get Real
October 31st, 2012
3:45 pm
ad
Christie change parties?? Do expect him to have a lobotomy, why else be a democrat?
Fred ™
October 31st, 2012
3:46 pm
josef: In answer to your 3:41, if you want to see one of the most insipid posts ever check out
Barack’s the best
October 31st, 2012
2:01 pm
Erwin's cat
October 31st, 2012
3:46 pm
Thanks Bro…I get that same sense. First time that far south in MX in a very long time..
I’ll be meeting a fairly large group, so we should be fine…One of my colleagues I bend elbows with is an ex-seal, but you’d never know it at first glance…he’s the one that keeps me out into the wee hours more often than not…what could go wrong?
Jm
October 31st, 2012
3:46 pm
Josef
I have about as much sympathy for our northern brethren right now as they have when Southerners get hit with a snowstorm
Brosephus™
October 31st, 2012
3:47 pm
So what’s the best way to respond?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwxFCj863gg#t=00m10s
St Simons
October 31st, 2012
3:47 pm
fred & joe and anyone who likes shrimp n grits,
you can still catch your own ‘bestest freshest shrimp in the dam world’
with your own net at Jekyll island, if you don’t mind going at night
and don’t mind the sharks.
shrimp so fresh they’ll give you iodine poisonin if you eat too many.
we’ve sent many a visitor back to Atlanta with orange tinted skin
and a bottle of pepto bismol
alex
October 31st, 2012
3:47 pm
@ad, let’s hope the latter,@ debbie as to last reference and drugs,dems:favorite song “white rabbit” and do you have a little debbies snack cake for us tonight?
@ joe-impressive display of regression to the mean, your so awful novel and brilliant, how do you stay so modest, must be tough to be you, it surely is tough for the rest of us who have ANY modicum of insight…..
Fred ™
October 31st, 2012
3:47 pm
Get Real: After I close down my precinct and turn the results in, I’m heading out to a sports bar to watch the results. I can’t wait. I’m looking more to it than I was the Florida Georgia game.
Brosephus™
October 31st, 2012
3:49 pm
josef
You’re gonna get somebody riled up…
Normal Free...Pro Human Rights Thug...And liking it!
October 31st, 2012
3:50 pm
jm,
I talked to a South Korean who didn’t like white people…guess you meet all types, huh?
Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette
October 31st, 2012
3:50 pm
weetamoe
just googled your blog name
cool.
Get Real
October 31st, 2012
3:51 pm
Jay
I agree with you on Dick Morris….very creepy
Erwin's cat
October 31st, 2012
3:53 pm
GG – weetamoe
just googled your blog name
cool.
is it sexist to call you “Sweet Heart”?
DebbieDoRight - A Do Right Woman
October 31st, 2012
3:53 pm
AqG: My interactions with strangers are usually the same, but if you’re a woman you’re simply more likely to encounter frightening nutbags and predators, or simply unwanted attention. It’s not our imagination, there’s good reason for women to be more on guard.
Word — you can just smile at a guy and say hello, and he can take it to a whole other level.
Lee
October 31st, 2012
3:53 pm
Funny how Jay picks and chooses which days and which polls he wishes to comment on.
Get Real
October 31st, 2012
3:54 pm
Fred ™
I will be watching but may be on the road paying for my next happy meal. Not sure of my travel schedule just yet. I wonder how little of the vote has to be in before a network (any network) makes a predition (1%? 2%?) I always find that part the funniest..
Brosephus™
October 31st, 2012
3:54 pm
what could go wrong?
Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...
October 31st, 2012
3:54 pm
Jay,
Came across a great G Washington quote from his Farewell Address…appropos I thought relative the how wingnuts and moonbats try to pretend there is nothing more American that high-pitched, no holds barred ideological battle..(not my words of course..)
In his address he made it clear that he perceived no greater threat to the American experiment than a partisan demagogue who “agitates the community with ill-found jealousies and false alarms, kindles the animosity of one party against another….those who serve to organize faction, togive it an artificial and extraordinary force, to put, in the place of the delegated will of the nation the will of a party…Washington warned us against wingnuts and moondogs…we would be wise to take his advice”
From Wingnuts..How the Lunatic Fringe Is Hijacking America..by John Avlon..
Joe Hussein Mama
October 31st, 2012
3:55 pm
Lee — “Funny how Jay picks and chooses which days and which polls he wishes to comment on.”
Funny how the con posters here do exactly the same thing.
Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...
October 31st, 2012
3:57 pm
FRED @ 3:30
Wow…you mean they didn’t tell you that you were special at the strip club…just before you pulled out your wallet for the 10th time?
josef
October 31st, 2012
3:57 pm
FRED
And what’s REALLY funny? It starts with “I have a friend,,,” I think I’d've phrased that a bit differently if I were going where s/he went…but, then, what do I know.
JM
Actually, though, my heart goes out to our Northern cousins in their time of troubles…once they get back on their feet? Well, that’s another matter…
BROSPEPHUS
Well, they can get as riled UP as they want, and they’ll still be inferior to Uncle Sam’s Redheaded Step Chirren at rest…
Erwin's cat
October 31st, 2012
3:59 pm
seriously…could they post pone or extend the election if they cant get power and clear roads to the polling places in the NE
St Simons
October 31st, 2012
3:59 pm
“….if you’re a woman you’re simply more likely to encounter
frightening nutbags……”
if you’re a man, you’re simply more likely to encounter
frightening nutbags…..after she moves in.
advantage – x chromosome….again….damn
Matti
October 31st, 2012
3:59 pm
DDR and AqG:
Word. Right wing nutbags always want to convert me. Ewwww.
Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette
October 31st, 2012
4:00 pm
Erwin’s cat
October 31st, 2012
3:53 pm
GG – weetamoe
just googled your blog name
cool.
is it sexist to call you “Sweet Heart”?
.
.
.
Sometimes.
Sometimes not.
If I sense the wrong kind of “sweetheart” – I just call them punkin butt or lover dumpling or cuddle bunny cakes and they get the picture.
The looks are their faces are worth it.
Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...
October 31st, 2012
4:02 pm
Wouldn’t it be a scream if Dick Morris proves to be the rightest of the right and BO gets beat in decisive fashion?
I guess according to this guy…they’d burn this Mfckr down eh? Great video..
http://michellefields.com/2012/10/30/pro-obama-ad-we-will-burn-this-motherf-down-and-c-ck-punch-romney/
Regnad Kcin
October 31st, 2012
4:04 pm
Granny – I’ve heard it’s not harrassment if he’s good lookin’.
Erwin's cat
October 31st, 2012
4:04 pm
GG…as sweet as you are…at times….
I was really referring to weetamoe ..granted…I anchored your post so I understand the confusion…wiki says weetamoe means “sweet heart”…so call me “Mr Silly Pants” on that one
Mary Elizabeth
October 31st, 2012
4:04 pm
I just voted early. I was in line for 1 hour and 15 minutes. I want to alert readers to the fact that all candidates who were Republicans were placed first on the ballot (unless, of course, only a Democrat was running for office). Incumbents were placed sometimes first, and sometimes second or third. However, the Republican candidate, incumbent or not, was ALWAYS placed first and that occurrence was not contingent upon alphabetical order.
That means that the name of the President of the U.S. – the incumbent – was placed after the name of Gov. Romney on the ballot because Gov. Romney is the Republican candidate. It was obvious to me that the ballot was designed for Republicans always to be positioned first on the ballot. This is no insignificant point. The reason it is significant should be obvious to all, and all should be concerned about the stealthy manipulation of the public through this means.
I mentioned this when I was at the government building and I was given the following number to call. The fellow citizens to whom I mentioned this were also disturbed by this, whether they were Republicans or Democrats. This is not a partisan issue. It is a matter politicians not being allowed to manipulate an unaware public.
I urge all readers to call as I have just done – after you also have observed what I have just pointed out – to register your knowledge of how the ballot in Georgia was designed and to register your disapproval of the manipulation of the public
(404) 612-7020 – Fulton Elections Office Number
If you live outside of Fulton County, perhaps the personnel at this office number given above will give you the telephone number to call for your county. It was also suggested to me by personnel at the voting area that I call Georgia’s Secretary of State’s Office to register my complaint, which I have also done. Both telephone numbers were busy, but I left a message and my telephone number for a return call. I will keep calling until I am able to know in more detail why this occurred and to register my disapproval of this.
Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette
October 31st, 2012
4:07 pm
Erwin it can also mean “womans spirit”
I have a wee bit of that left…..
Look before I leap...
October 31st, 2012
4:07 pm
@SR
“In his address he made it clear that he perceived no greater threat to the American experiment than a partisan demagogue who “agitates the community with ill-found jealousies and false alarms, kindles the animosity of one party against another….those who serve to organize faction, togive it an artificial and extraordinary force, to put, in the place of the delegated will of the nation the will of a party”
——————————————————————————————————————————————
It’s almost as if Rush Limbaugh appeared to Washington in a dream. Spooky stuff for Halloween.
They BOTH suck
October 31st, 2012
4:07 pm
Stevie
Are you referring to Dick “McCain will walk away with this election” Morris?
You may as well go with someone like, maybe……… Nate Silver
Oscar
October 31st, 2012
4:07 pm
seriously…could they post pone or extend the election if they cant get power and clear roads to the polling places in the NE
_______
No, Constitution states Congress sets the date of the election and all states have to vote on the same day. Congress would have to change the date and it would apply everywhere. Not likely to happen.
Joe Hussein Mama
October 31st, 2012
4:08 pm
E. Cat — “seriously…could they post pone or extend the election if they cant get power and clear roads to the polling places in the NE”
I’ve been trying to figure this out for the last few days, and the best answer I’ve come up with is ‘I don’t think so.’
Seems like states are free to *conduct* elections pretty much however they want, with certain Federal restrictions (can’t impose a poll tax or literacy test to vote, eligible to vote at 18, etc), but that Election Day is the drop-dead date. From what I can find, there are *extremely few* exceptions to the ‘all votes received or postmarked by Election Day’ rule.
I suppose Congress could do something, but given its intransigence in recent years, I think that’s pretty unlikely.
So even though I’m not absolutely certain, I’m going to go with ‘don’t think so.’
Erwin's cat
October 31st, 2012
4:08 pm
yes Granny you do at that
Jm
October 31st, 2012
4:08 pm
Josef
I said “about”
I have sympathy for them. Just not tons
My buddy who lives in TriBeCa has just been spending the last few days off from work having fun in the bars
alex
October 31st, 2012
4:09 pm
@stevie ray, how dare you refer to JAY in that fashion, one more word from you and I’ll,I’ll sic chris mathews on you…… now where’s that cherry tree, I need some more teeth ( they were wooden, get it?, sorry!,) TRICK OR TREAT1
Look before I leap...
October 31st, 2012
4:11 pm
“seriously…could they post pone or extend the election if they cant get power and clear roads to the polling places in the NE”
No. It just means the Nov surprise will be huge as the blue voters on bicycles and driving Priuses won’t stand a chance against the red-voters in their 4 wheel drive SUVs.
alex
October 31st, 2012
4:12 pm
@ mary Elizabeth, look there’s a banana….just HORRIBLE,HORRIBLE republicans are first on the ballot, obama is spelled O-B-A-M-A,carry on APS grads…Sheesh
Steve-USA
October 31st, 2012
4:13 pm
The most accurate poll will be taken on November 6.
We should be able to hang in there until then, it’s less than a week.
Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...
October 31st, 2012
4:14 pm
LOOK
How on earth do you deflect what George Washington said about polarizing the parties to a harmful degree is a big threat to the American Experiment? I probably don’t think any more highly of Limbaugh cause he is a part of the problem…do you want me to provide a flowchart in colors to help you get the point?
ALEX
Check out http://www.drbukks.com…that’s where I get my teefs…
Doug
October 31st, 2012
4:15 pm
Didn’t all the exit polls predict Kerry winning in 2004? These polls really don’t mean a thing, just wait til Tuesday.
Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...
October 31st, 2012
4:15 pm
THEYBOTHSUCK
Yeah Morris is about a reliable as the FOX folks he works for…but if he were accurate how funny would that be?
L Hesler
October 31st, 2012
4:16 pm
http://www.nationalreview.com/media-blog/316888/pew-and-rasmussen-most-accurate-pollsters-2008-greg-pollowitz http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.topix.com%2Fforum%2Fcolumbus%2FTIO2ECVF4U74GVK5V&h=gAQF58OPe http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/pew-rasmussen-most-accurate/2012/09/11/id/451377
Guess it depends on who you believe….but statistically Rasmussen and Pew have been the most accurate with their predictions. Also, Gallup hasn’t been far off. You sir are wrong about the Ohio poll data. Several polls have had Gov. Romney up besides Rasmussen. I live in Ohio, I travel in Ohio, and I can tell you there are 10:1 more Romney signs in Ohio than Obama. Go ahead and believe your own lies however.
Doug
October 31st, 2012
4:18 pm
It comes down to Ohio. If Romney wins Ohio he wins if not he loses.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
October 31st, 2012
4:20 pm
Is “nutbag” the term you folks really mean to be using?
They BOTH suck
October 31st, 2012
4:20 pm
Stevie
Morris was a hack when he worked for Clinton and is a hack now. A broke clock is right twice a day, but yes anything is possible. Is it probable especially coming out of Dick’s mouth? Usually not.
Look before I leap...
October 31st, 2012
4:20 pm
@Doug
Nope. If Romney wins 269 or 270 EV, he wins, else he loses.
ad
October 31st, 2012
4:21 pm
Doug – no. The exit polls didn’t have Kerry winning.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
October 31st, 2012
4:22 pm
If Ohio and Wisconsin go to Big O, Romney can start campaigning for 2016.
Might want to take Ann on a vacation for a week or two first, though. Better to spend the winter crying in the tropics than anywhere in cold-azz Massachusetts.
Steve-USA
October 31st, 2012
4:22 pm
So far Nate Silver has made predictions on one Presidential election. I think I will let him do at least 3 before I believe his methodology is fool proof.
Mark T
October 31st, 2012
4:23 pm
https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/c58.0.403.403/p403×403/557854_10151303820777650_1586756920_n.jpg
ad
October 31st, 2012
4:24 pm
If the GOP figures out this one is lost, they may shut down spending and save it for 2016.
Joe Hussein Mama
October 31st, 2012
4:24 pm
http://www.someecards.com/usercards/viewcard/MjAxMi0zOTA5Njg3ZGVhY2UxMjZj
Look before I leap...
October 31st, 2012
4:24 pm
I had thought Dick Morris’ career died years ago.
Only way to get press is to say stupid stuff and say it loudly.
If he’s wrong, he goes back to obscurity and no harm done. He has the skin and soul of a political hack (thick and none).
roswell mom
October 31st, 2012
4:27 pm
Romney’s got Georgia in the bag. There’s really no reason for me to go out and vote when my state’s not even in play.
EJ Moosa
October 31st, 2012
4:28 pm
You sound as if the election results will be an “average” of the last two weeks of polling. Far from it.
The majority of the votes cast will be on Tuesday. So you better examine where the trend of the last two weeks is pointing.
Look before I leap...
October 31st, 2012
4:28 pm
@Finn
Romney said if he loses this is last presidential campaign.
And we know a principled man like Romney never flips on anything.
The thing that keeps my spirits up, if Obama wins another term, we’ll see the Newtster make another try in 2016 with all the attendant hilarity that will bring.
Recon 0311 2533
October 31st, 2012
4:28 pm
It comes down to Ohio. If Romney wins Ohio he wins if not he loses
Doug, probably a pretty accurate forecast unless by some strange twist Romney wins PA, while losing Ohio. Actually though when you consider how much Obama has lost where he won pretty handily in 08 now showing so many toss up states tied or Romney ahead maybe Morris isn’t that far off.
Doug
October 31st, 2012
4:29 pm
ad
http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/exit_polls_the_.html
Mark T
October 31st, 2012
4:29 pm
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided. See daily tracking history.
UNCLE SAMANTHA
October 31st, 2012
4:29 pm
They BOTH suck
October 31st, 2012
4:20 pm
Stevie
Morris was a hack when he worked for Clinton and is a hack now. A broke clock is right twice a day, but yes anything is possible. Is it probable especially coming out of Dick’s mouth? Usually not.
======================================================================
THAT HACK GOT CLINTON RE-ELECTED
AND DURING A REPUBLICAN TAKE OVER OF CONGRESS
kimmer
October 31st, 2012
4:29 pm
The electoral college is more than just an antiquated system of electing the president related to the logistics of a national election 200 years ago. The all-or-none rules in most states is also a way that such states can exert the maximum political clout and for that reason it isn’t likely to go away. I would be in favor of abolishing it because the all or none rule magnifies the temptation for voter fraud in a close state and limits the campaign to just a few ‘battlegrounds’.
josef
October 31st, 2012
4:30 pm
alex
“…carry on APS grads…”
As many grammatical, syntactical, and lexical errors as you make in so short of a post, you might want to think twice before casting the first stone… silly twit…
Aquagirl
October 31st, 2012
4:30 pm
Is “nutbag” the term you folks really mean to be using?
I think it has the appropriate gross/creepy/testicular overtone and it gets by the filter.
Peadawg
October 31st, 2012
4:30 pm
http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2012/10/31/presidential-candidates-reduce-a-4-year-old-to-tears/
I don’t blame her for crying…these 2 candidates are pretty bad.
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
October 31st, 2012
4:31 pm
Someone earlier said, whoever wins, 1/2 of the country is going to be mad. Better yet, Obama can get 13-14 states and win and Romney could get 36-37 states and lose. That does not seem Fair and Balanced to me?
They BOTH suck
October 31st, 2012
4:31 pm
Recon
If Morris is right on one state, that would put him that much further ahead than 08 when he claimed “McCain will walk away with this election”.
Fred ™
October 31st, 2012
4:31 pm
Jm
October 31st, 2012
3:46 pm
Josef
I have about as much sympathy for our northern brethren right now as they have when Southerners get hit with a snowstorm
++++++++++++++++++
I have really struggled with that myself. But it’s not just when we get hit with a snow storm, they raise hell everytime a hurricane hits: “Why don’t they just MOVE?”
But I just fight off the bitterness and tell myself that bless their hearts, they don’t know any better since they are Yankees and I certainly don’t want to be like them.
Mary Elizabeth
October 31st, 2012
4:32 pm
Alex, citizens get the kind of democracy that they care about. Here is the issue again:
” . . . all should be concerned about the stealthy manipulation of the public through this means.”
The fact that you do not care is telling.
They BOTH suck
October 31st, 2012
4:33 pm
Tom
Is it far and balanced that the number of House members in each state is based on population or should it be like the Senate?
Aquagirl
October 31st, 2012
4:34 pm
Romney could get 36-37 states and lose. That does not seem Fair and Balanced to me?
They’re called flyover states for a reason. Are you advocating suffrage for sheep and cattle?
EJ Moosa
October 31st, 2012
4:34 pm
Mary Elizabeth,
If you cannot select one of three candidates by name, regardless of order, perhaps you should not be voting.
If you are going to delve into manipulation, then we better start talking about the broadcast media first.
Mark T
October 31st, 2012
4:34 pm
ELECTION 2012 TRACKING
Oct 22-28, 2012 – Tracking suspended as of Monday, Oct. 29 due to effects of Superstorm Sandy
REGISTERED VOTERSCHANGE
Obama48%-
Romney48%+1
LIKELY VOTERSCHANGE
Romney51%+1
Obama46%
They BOTH suck
October 31st, 2012
4:34 pm
Uncle Sam
Doesn’t matter who he helped get re-elected. He is a hack to the highest bidder.
He has become a successful businessman being a hack, but he is still a hack.
PERIOD.
Oscar
October 31st, 2012
4:35 pm
The polls only count the opinions of people who answer their phones and talk to pollsters. That lets me out. I’m not one of those.
Which side has more people most likely to answer and talk to a pollster. Polls would be skewed in that direction.
Jefferson
October 31st, 2012
4:35 pm
Romney would pardon OJ.
Fred ™
October 31st, 2012
4:36 pm
roswell mom
October 31st, 2012
4:27 pm
Romney’s got Georgia in the bag. There’s really no reason for me to go out and vote when my state’s not even in play.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yeah, you don’t really need to have input on who your Congressman is. Or your sheriff, or tax commisioner, or mayor or dog catcher or anything…………
Here’s your sign:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5ZkdHImCuQ
Mr Right
October 31st, 2012
4:38 pm
Only a fool would want four more years like the last four!
Recon 0311 2533
October 31st, 2012
4:39 pm
TBS,
If I recall correctly Morris made that statement before the economy tanked, which some say turned the election for Obama that McCain would have otherwise won.
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
October 31st, 2012
4:40 pm
Theybothsuck and Aquagirl – You just like to make excuses for everything you disagree with, I was just making a point! I hope your guy loses just for the sake of you two!
Look before I leap...
October 31st, 2012
4:41 pm
Some folks have been handwringing the issue of a tie with the popular vote tipping towards Obama.
AN EV tie would most assuredly put the presidency into Romney’s hands.
I can live with that as the constitution provides for that.
What has me worried is if the EV count is very close (say 271 to 268) for either candidate and you get 2 faithless electors that change the outcome – then you have a brouhaha that makes 2000 look like a church social.
Lord Help Us
October 31st, 2012
4:41 pm
‘Only a fool would want four more years like the last four!’
And a bigger fool would want a repeat of 2001-2008…
Mary Elizabeth
October 31st, 2012
4:43 pm
EJ Moosa, 4:34 pm
“Mary Elizabeth,
If you cannot select one of three candidates by name, regardless of order, perhaps you should not be voting.”
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Obviously, I voted for exactly who I had intended. That is not the issue and you well know it. The fact that you excuse this in the name that there is manipulation elsewhere is deplorable because you are an American citizen who should be insisting upon 100% ethical procedures being followed regarding the ballot.
Shame on you. I am gone for the day. I followed my conscience and posted, here, what I knew I needed to post as an American citizen. Each of you will follow your own consciences. But, at least you have been informed.
They BOTH suck
October 31st, 2012
4:44 pm
Recon
You are welcome to do the research, but to say that Morris has been incorrect on numerous occasions would be an understatement.
I could be wrong, but I am sure that his consulting for the numerous Democrat and Republican candidates he has worked for, as well as politicians around the world has been more restrained than his predictions on Fox or via his website.
Tom Walsh
October 31st, 2012
4:44 pm
Rasmussin had the most accurate poll in the 2008 where Barack Obama won by close to 7%. Also, undecided voters usually go to the challenger at this point of the race. Lastly, I do not know of one person who voted for McCain in 2008 who is switching to the President this time around. Stop sipping the Kool Aid at MSNBC and believing polls that oversample democrats.
UNCLE SAMANTHA
October 31st, 2012
4:44 pm
kimmer
October 31st, 2012
4:29 pm
The electoral college is more than just an antiquated system of electing the president related to the logistics of a national election 200 years ago. The all-or-none rules in most states is also a way that such states can exert the maximum political clout and for that reason it isn’t likely to go away. I would be in favor of abolishing it because the all or none rule magnifies the temptation for voter fraud in a close state and limits the campaign to just a few ‘battlegrounds’.
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it kills me how little people know that we are a REPRESENTATIVE REPUBLIC and not a DEMOCRACY……………..
if we elected presidents by POPULAR VOTE only………. you would have RECOUNTS in 50 states……….. and no candidate would go to NEW HAMPSHIRE…………. small states would be IGNORED due to higher populations states
the ELECTORAL COLLEGE and THE SENATE are CHECKS against the POWER OF THE BIG STATES
MAJORITIES would RULE ROUGHSHOD over the minorities
godless heathen
October 31st, 2012
4:46 pm
The fact that you do not care is telling.
The fact that people vote for a candidate based on the order of appearance on a ballot is telling.
Instruct the Obama voters to punch a hole next the word that starts with a letter that looks like a dough-nut.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
October 31st, 2012
4:46 pm
BOTH
Great food and I’ve seen Abdullah there several times. They call it soul food in that part of town, but move it north to Hickory Flat in Cherokee Co., and the same food is called kountry cookin’.
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Fred
Like BOTH said, NO BEER.
Recon 0311 2533
October 31st, 2012
4:46 pm
I early voted and the ballot was pretty simple to understand in my view.
Mr Right
October 31st, 2012
4:47 pm
‘Only a fool would want four more years like the last four!’
And a bigger fool would want a repeat of 2001-2008…
And a bigger yet fool would think four more of the same leadership would be any better than the last four years!