Rasmussen polling data make Obama the favorite

I don’t know who will win the presidency come Nov. 6. I do know, however, that at this point, based on polling, Barack Obama remains the clear favorite to win an electoral-college majority.

I understand that’s a controversial statement among some. Sites such as Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com have become targets of sustained attacks and critiques by supporters of Mitt Romney for making similar statements. But it’s nonetheless true.

To document that claim, let’s take a look at the race using a data source that ought to sidestep all conservative claims of “skewed polling” and “media bias,” etc. Let’s examine it using numbers generated solely by Rasmussen, using definitions of “leaning” and “tossup” states as applied by Rasmussen. And before we do, let’s take a moment to establish just how Republican-leaning the Rasmussen numbers really are by looking at state polling data.

Colorado: Rasmussen has Romney up by four points, which is a fairly large margin. Yet of the 10 polls released in that state in the last two weeks, eight have Obama up. The only only other poll showing a Romney lead in Colorado — an American Research Group poll released Oct. 28 — has Romney up by just one.

Ohio: Of the 21 polls released in the past two weeks, only one — Rasmussen — has Romney in the lead, in Rasmussen’s case a lead of two points. Most other polls give Obama a two-to-five-point lead.

Wisconsin: Rasmussen’s latest poll, released Oct. 25, puts Paul Ryan’s home state in a tie. Every other poll conducted in the state since Aug. 21 — more than two dozen in all — has put Obama ahead, the most recent ones by a margin of two to six points.

Now, it may turn out that Rasmussen is right and almost everyone else is wrong. That can’t be discounted. But for our purposes, there’s no doubt that by using Rasmussen in our analysis, we are using numbers most favorable to the Republican cause.

And what does Rasmussen tell us?

Well, if you look at its electoral college map, using Rasmussen-generated polling data, we find the following breakdown:

Obama and Obama-leaning states: 237 electoral votes
Romney and Romney-leaning states: 206 electoral votes
Tossups: 95 electoral votes

In other words, to get to the magical 270 electoral votes, Romney needs to win 64 of the 95 tossup votes available. That’s 67.4 percent, or two out of three available votes.

To get to the magical 270 votes, Obama needs to win just 33 of the 95 tossup votes, basically a little more than one out of every three tossup votes.

That’s why Obama is the favorite. Having to win one out of three is a lot easier than having to win two out of three.

It is true, of course, that favorites don’t always win. The Florida Gators were favored over the Georgia Bulldogs last week in Jacksonville, but the Gators got beat. Six turnovers will do that to you almost every time, and that’s a turn of events that the oddsmakers didn’t anticipate. Likewise, it is entirely feasible that come Tuesday — especially given a somewhat wacky polling environment — Obama will join the Gators on the long list of favorites who went down in defeat.

But using the data source most favorable to the Republican cause, that’s not the way to bet.

– Jay Bookman

783 comments Add your comment

Fred ™

October 31st, 2012
12:51 pm

Simple Truths

October 31st, 2012
12:51 pm

“Having to win one out of three is a lot easier than having to win two out of three.”

That’s why Jay makes the big bucks!

Keep Up the Good Fight!

October 31st, 2012
12:52 pm

Oh noooooo…… I am sure that another poll that is “better” is to be relied upon by the GOP

Logical Dude

October 31st, 2012
12:54 pm

There are polls? Really? POLLS???

East Lake Ira

October 31st, 2012
12:56 pm

Lies, damn lies and statistics…

Look, this all comes down to turnout and Rasmussen clearly uses Dem leaning turnout projections because we all know the GOP has the momentum and will crush Obama in the end.

That pretty much sums up what we’ll read from the cons on this thread…

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

October 31st, 2012
12:59 pm

But…but…but…BENGHAZI! in 3…2…1….

Look before I leap...

October 31st, 2012
1:02 pm

Sorry Jay:

If each of the toss-up votes was an independent variable, your analysis is correct.
But the toss-ups comes in blocks – you must look at the state polling that represents each block.

Using 270 to win, gives you a better idea of how each candidate’s chances of reaching 270.
Plug in the Rasmussen assumptions produces the following:

If u leave WI in Obama’s column (Ras has WI tied) and Romney takes OH and FL:
Obama has 12 winning combinations and Romney has 10
A slight edge for Obama but no where near a 3 to 1 advantage.

Aquagirl

October 31st, 2012
1:02 pm

Discussing polls at this point is like throwing fresh steak to starving tigers. I’m gonna get my popcorn.

Steve

October 31st, 2012
1:04 pm

I’ve been saying this since before the GOP primaries. They’ll pick Romney, and Obama will stand out as Romney is clearly a fake and boring, and wears magic underpants.

jsmith

October 31st, 2012
1:04 pm

whoever wins, one half of the country is going to be miserable for the next 4 years

SoGAVet

October 31st, 2012
1:05 pm

Using the election tool (Venn diagram and bubbles) on the NYTimes politic page, it’s getting harder and harder to come up with scenarios that get Romney to 270. Especially with Florida trending back into play. An Obama win in Ohio and Florida mean lights out for Mitt. Obama can lose both and still win.

MadMax

October 31st, 2012
1:05 pm

Sandy was the best thing that’s happened this campaign as it gave him a chance to show he was at the helm of an event he couldn’t contrrol (and no one expects him to) where he didn’t have to make any quick decisions and it allowed him to get rid of some of the stench surrounding him from the way he handled the Libya thing.

DannyX

October 31st, 2012
1:06 pm

I use the USMC-link method to determine who is winning, I think it’s far more accurate than Nate Silver.

Right now the USMC-link is predicting an Obama win.

The USMC-link method is really quite simple. When USMC is posting hundreds of poll links a day that show a Romney lead, Romney is winning. When the polls are favorable to Obama he is quiet.

Right now, USMC is dead silent with the poll links which means Obama is winning, (and time is running out.)

Jay

October 31st, 2012
1:07 pm

You prove my point, Look.

You are forced to GIVE both Ohio and Florida to Romney in order to make it look equal. And last I looked, Obama isn’t giving either state away.

Conversely, if I “give” both Ohio and Florida to Obama instead, what does it look like? It looks OVER.

Adam

October 31st, 2012
1:07 pm

Again, anyone want to take my bet?

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

October 31st, 2012
1:08 pm

better than the sound of one hand clapping … the sound of a million heads a’sploding …

Rasmussen, say it’s not so!!

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

October 31st, 2012
1:09 pm

Danny – 1:06 – :lol:

even better than Nate!!

Look before I leap...

October 31st, 2012
1:10 pm

“whoever wins, one half of the country is going to be miserable for the next 4 years”

More like a 3rd of the country.
One third will be rabidly happy and the middle 3rd will be life goes on.

Other than some wedge social issues, there is just not enough to distinguish between the two. Romney proved that with his “me too” foreign policy debate.

I just don’t see corporate America going on a hiring binge regardless of who wins next week.

USMC

October 31st, 2012
1:11 pm

“Right now the USMC-link is predicting an Obama win.”

No, Actually MORNING JOE has already called the election for Comrade Obama. :-)

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

October 31st, 2012
1:11 pm

Philosopher

October 31st, 2012
1:11 pm

:) :) :) :) :) Let’s get it DONE!!!

Erwin's cat

October 31st, 2012
1:11 pm

http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/unskewedpollsummary12.php

this election will be about turnout (if you belive the above link)..that said, as the incumbent it’s O’s race to lose

Pats by 3 :D

hardcore right wing sheep. baaaaaaaaa!

October 31st, 2012
1:11 pm

Romney will win because obviously, Rasmussen is oversampling democrats. Its not intentional. Its just similar to facts always having a liberal bias. The other pollsters are obviously in the bag for Obama and so their polls are meaningless. I predict 750 electoral votes for Romney, with the extras coming from the other usually discounted 7 states.

Fly-On-The-Wall

October 31st, 2012
1:13 pm

Polls – hard to trust because so many of them have their own agenda.

ATL Tiger

October 31st, 2012
1:13 pm

Regardless of what you think about Rasmussen, we do have exit polling from early voters.

“Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 46% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. ”
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx

Logical Dude

October 31st, 2012
1:14 pm

Quoting: especially given a somewhat wacky polling environment

That’s what I’m sayin’

Only 1 poll matters, and that’s the poll next Tuesday.

indigo

October 31st, 2012
1:14 pm

I’ve said a number of times here that The Electorial College is not needed now and should be abolished. For some reason, cons here have trashed me for that opinion. Therefore, it will be VERY INTERESTING to see what said cons will say if Romney gets the most votes but loses in the Electorial College count.

Jefferson

October 31st, 2012
1:15 pm

Romney is losing.

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

October 31st, 2012
1:15 pm

Kam – I’ll see your H&O and raise you one

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bVGTVrQd6M

Look before I leap...

October 31st, 2012
1:15 pm

@ Jay
I was simply following Rasmussen’s numbers. Which is what your article led me to believe you were doing.
I am not saying that Obama will concede either state.

Romney’s path to 270 is dire absent a win in OH but Ras has shown a consistent lead for Romney there for the past 12 days. Whether Ras is right or wrong, remains to be seen. He has some fuzzy math which makes me think the numbers for the GOP are a bit rosier than they really are.

stands for decibels

October 31st, 2012
1:16 pm

even better than Nate!!

Yeah, Nate can totally take the rest of the week off, now that DannyX has found the polling-weight Holy Grail.

Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)

October 31st, 2012
1:16 pm

fivethirtyeight has the two diverging as well.

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

October 31st, 2012
1:17 pm

“I’ve said a number of times here that The Electorial College is not needed now and should be abolished”

actually, I wouldn’t mind the electoral college so much if it was proportional rather than winner-take-all. Too many states are purple now, so making them solid blue or red disenfranchises anywhere up to a half of all voters in that state.

that ain’t right!

Child, please

October 31st, 2012
1:17 pm

Baaaa,
Thanks for the reminder about the 57 states, I needed a good laugh. The other 7 states are made up of those people who vote in multiple jurisdictions/states. Happens every election as elections are state affairs with no national coordination. Dems would never go for that, would cut down “turnout”, ha ha.

Tyronda

October 31st, 2012
1:18 pm

“The Florida Gators were favored over the Georgia Bulldogs last week in Jacksonville,…”

Yup and some oddsmakers picked the Eagles over the Falcons too.

If I’m in the Romney camp I’ll take all of those ‘BHO-will-win’ polls I can get, all they do is lull the D’s into staying home on election day and motivate the R’s to go vote

saywhat?

October 31st, 2012
1:18 pm

Jay, here is a link appropriate to your first blog post this morning. Thought you might enjoy it

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/10/31/just-in-campaign-now-making-children-cry/

I'm a liberal and believe everything I read and nothing the other side comes up with...cause we're smart and they are not

October 31st, 2012
1:18 pm

And what the Hell does ANYONE see in the guy. He’s a walking piece of incompetent ideologue who the press in covering up for him.

ByteMe - Got ilk?

October 31st, 2012
1:19 pm

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 46% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots

Misleading or statistically invalid at this point.

Here’s why: early voting is open in Georgia. Anyone think that’s still in play? Romney could get 100% of the votes in this state and it still wouldn’t affect the outcome… but it will affect Gallup’s nationwide summary. Gallup admits that early voting is happening more in the south and west and not much at all in the very blue east.

What would be less misleading or statistically invalid would be early voting numbers from swing states. Right now Ohio and Florida are both showing Obama’s ground game is producing better results than Romney’s.

Reebok

October 31st, 2012
1:19 pm

Mittens is not going to take Ohio…and he can’t win without it. That being said, the deep South states are going to vote for Romnet in such huge numbers, it’s very possible that Governor Romney will win the popular vote while losing the election.

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

October 31st, 2012
1:19 pm

USinUK

One more from the 80s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAEVesAxSCM

Have I mentioned lately that JT is a wanker?

Brad Steel

October 31st, 2012
1:20 pm

“Rasmussen” doesn’t sound like a pole.

Look before I leap...

October 31st, 2012
1:20 pm

@indigo
The electoral college exists because we are a republic and not a democracy.

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

October 31st, 2012
1:21 pm

“Rasmussen” doesn’t sound like a pole.

A stripper pole?

indigo

October 31st, 2012
1:21 pm

USinUK

And, I wouldn’t mind if America switched to the British way of electing politicians. It would have to be better than what we have now.

Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)

October 31st, 2012
1:21 pm

Question next Weds will be: Can we be a little more vigilant regarding the Cons trying to put in place laws that disenfranchise legal voters?

ByteMe - Got ilk?

October 31st, 2012
1:21 pm

If I’m in the Romney camp I’ll take all of those ‘BHO-will-win’ polls I can get, all they do is lull the D’s into staying home on election day and motivate the R’s to go vote

Exactly backward AND exactly not what the Romney camp has been doing.

No one votes for a loser. If you smell like a loser, people will stay home. Over the past week, Romney’s camp has been pushing on reporters their own interpretation of early voting stats to show they’re winning. They fear smelling like a loser.

Rightwing Troll

October 31st, 2012
1:22 pm

I, for one, refuse to rule Mittens out… it’s a STRONG possibility that we’ll have a president Mittens come Jan 21…

I’m ok with it… Wingnuts got punked by the “severely conservative” Mittens, and, bless their shriveled little hearts, they refuse to see it… Willard Obama Mittens Romney has revealed his true self and that self is a conservative NE liberal… own it wingnuts.

indigo

October 31st, 2012
1:22 pm

look – 1:20

We are a Republic AND a democracy.

Logical Dude

October 31st, 2012
1:22 pm

Let me give an open question to everyone here:

Will any poll CHANGE your vote?

Meaning: If you see one candidate polling higher and higher, will that influence your vote?

Or do you look at each candidate’s strength’s, weaknesses, and beliefs, and vote accordingly?

Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)

October 31st, 2012
1:24 pm

Jay’s ready for Wednesday so the only polls he has to look at are the poles at the Cheetah!

Back to normalcy!!

Keep Up the Good Fight!

October 31st, 2012
1:24 pm

Last time I flew over the country I did not see 57 states…. maybe I could have if only I could have rolled down the windows on the airplane. Why don’t they let you roll down those windows? :lol:

Bill Orvis White

October 31st, 2012
1:24 pm

Hate to break it to you, but we will learn next week that your president has become a failed one-termer. Flag the comment and “replay it” one week from today. I know that I will be right. Amen, Bill

USinUK - not very ladylike (and former Girl Scout)

October 31st, 2012
1:25 pm

“And, I wouldn’t mind if America switched to the British way of electing politicians. It would have to be better than what we have now.”

mmmm … the only thing I like is that you have to call an election sometime in 6 years – then, once you call it, you only get 6 weeks to campaign.

Brosephus™

October 31st, 2012
1:25 pm

I just don’t see corporate America going on a hiring binge regardless of who wins next week.

That’s different from what the experts are saying. They were the first to come out with the 12 million jobs statement, even before Romney announced he had a “plan”.

The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook makes for gloomy reading. Growth projections have been revised downward almost everywhere, especially in Europe and the big emerging markets such as China. And yet, when looking out over the next four years — the next presidential term — the IMF projects that the United States will be the strongest of the world’s rich economies. U.S. growth is forecast to average 3 percent, much stronger than that of Germany or France (1.2 percent) or even Canada (2.3 percent). Increasingly, the evidence suggests that the United States has come out of the financial crisis of 2008 in better shape than its peers — because of the actions of its government.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fareed-zakaria-the-us-economy-is-recovering-well/2012/10/24/9c34df9e-1df0-11e2-ba31-3083ca97c314_story.html

There also appears to be empirical data that suggests we will see things get better regardless to who wins the election.

Adam

October 31st, 2012
1:25 pm

It’s funny that people now think the way to win is pretend you’re winning. A few weeks ago it was all about scaring people into voting by making them think you’re losing. Why is the public consciousness different now? Is the LIBRUL MEDIA saying so?

Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)

October 31st, 2012
1:25 pm

Logical Dude, polls aren’t meant to be used to determine your vote, they’re meant to determine who you bet your money on.

Jefferson

October 31st, 2012
1:25 pm

I won’t vote for Romney, but may vote for the President. The GOP needs to pick better men and women.

Rightwing Troll

October 31st, 2012
1:25 pm

“That being said, the deep South states are going to vote for Romnet in such huge numbers, it’s very possible that Governor Romney will win the popular vote while losing the election.”

Yep, the FLA panhandle being part of those deep south states… north of Clearwater will be solid bright red, does Obama have enough blue in the south of Fla? We will see.

Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)

October 31st, 2012
1:26 pm

As of yesterday, Romeny was 2-1 underdog.

Brosephus™

October 31st, 2012
1:27 pm

Pats by 3 :)

I’d go with The Tide by 33 ;)

Look before I leap...

October 31st, 2012
1:27 pm

@indigo
Not at the federal election level and that was by design.
As a matter of fact, it was decided to go that route in an attempt to give the southern states a larger say in the matter since the US population was very heavily weighted to the northeast.

I'm a liberal and believe everything I read and nothing the other side comes up with...cause we're smart and they are not

October 31st, 2012
1:27 pm

Hard to get in the minds of some on here. The guy is a total failure ( by measuring him as all past Presidents have been measured, not the Black,cool, Far wacko left thing) and I just don’t see normal, tax paying,moral,,family,career type people asking for four more years.

Jay

October 31st, 2012
1:28 pm

“Romney’s path to 270 is dire absent a win in OH but Ras has shown a consistent lead for Romney there for the past 12 days.”

Untrue. As far as I can determine, Ras has done ONE (1) poll showing a Romney lead in Ohio, and that one poll was released Oct. 28. The second most-recent Ras poll of Ohio, released Oct. 23, showed a tie. So I don’t know how you document your claim that Rasmussen shows a “consistent lead for Romney there for the past 12 days.”

Erwin's cat

October 31st, 2012
1:28 pm

Bro – There also appears to be empirical data that suggests we will see things get better regardless to who wins the election

word…

Adam

October 31st, 2012
1:29 pm

it’s very possible that Governor Romney will win the popular vote while losing the election.

Actually that’s statistically unlikely.

Rightwing Troll

October 31st, 2012
1:29 pm

Adam, last time we had a wingnut here wanting to bet on the outcome of a national election, it refused to pay up. It left here with it’s tail between it’s legs and now is a regular over at Kyles…

Moral of the story? Don’t make bets with wingnuts… much like they govern, they write checks their a$$es can’t cash…

Jm

October 31st, 2012
1:29 pm

Bennnnnnghaaaaazzzzziiiiiii

Just helping Kam out

Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)

October 31st, 2012
1:30 pm

normal, tax paying,moral,,family,career type people

Well, I don’t either but your definition defines maybe 10% of the US population – so you still lose.

What the heck is “normal” anyway?

Whose “morals” are you referring to? Those of “normal” people?

Adam

October 31st, 2012
1:30 pm

Adam, last time we had a wingnut here wanting to bet on the outcome of a national election, it refused to pay up. It left here with it’s tail between it’s legs and now is a regular over at Kyles…

Moral of the story? Don’t make bets with wingnuts…

I don’t know about that moral of the story. I think I prefer that outcome. :)

(Hint: That is actually the WHOLE IDEA behind these bets. I do not expect to be paid, I just expect to be able to embarrass the wingnuts by bashing them over the head with it until any other liberal besides myself would feel sorry for them).

Look before I leap...

October 31st, 2012
1:30 pm

@BRO

I omitted a key word in my statement.

It should have read, “I just don’t see corporate America going on an IMMEDIATE hiring binge”.

Jay

October 31st, 2012
1:31 pm

“it’s very possible that Governor Romney will win the popular vote while losing the election.”

Actually that’s statistically unlikely.

———–

“Statistically unlikely” and “very possible” are not mutually exclusive terms. In fact, they can represent two ways of stating the same reality.

Brosephus™

October 31st, 2012
1:31 pm

Kamchak

Re: Stripper poles…

http://www.worldpoledance.com/

World Championship of Pole Dancing will be held in Switzerland beginning on the 10th of November.

Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)

October 31st, 2012
1:31 pm

What is this about Benghazi? What happened there? Something big? Did I miss something?

Recon 0311 2533

October 31st, 2012
1:32 pm

And the blogs lib choir cries out…Jay tell us Obama will win, he will win, won’t he, wwwon’t he.

Look before I leap...

October 31st, 2012
1:32 pm

Mick

October 31st, 2012
1:33 pm

Que sera, sera…

Rightwing Troll

October 31st, 2012
1:33 pm

” I just don’t see normal, tax paying,moral,,family,career type people asking for four more years.”

Too bad you don’t know anybody like that… you’d see they were happy with the bettering economy and simply don’t trust the duplicitous Mittens because they don’t really know where he stands on anything…

I'm a liberal and believe everything I read and nothing the other side comes up with...cause we're smart and they are not

October 31st, 2012
1:33 pm

I asked my cute twenty something year old server last night whom she planned to vote for last night. She said Obama. I ask why…..He’s cool and likes women she said….. I ask, that’s it. She said yea.
There ya go. Geez.

Jefferson

October 31st, 2012
1:34 pm

Even the GOP hold their own noses, and brother they can handle crap.

Tundra Dude

October 31st, 2012
1:34 pm

Rasmussen polling data make Obama the favorite

They’re slipping.
The (so called) Rasmussen Poll farms the work out to Pulse Opinion Research. ( I guess they were the lowest bidder.)
They tend to call mainly landline phones, which are disproportionately answered by old flatulating conservatives.

Rasmussen Polling Methodology Leaves A Lot To Be Desired
http://bit.ly/QEMrSO

Look before I leap...

October 31st, 2012
1:35 pm

My apologies Jay
Multi-tasking here
I was looking at the aggregate numbers in the swing states.
I need to look up the OH numbers…

Jay

October 31st, 2012
1:35 pm

Look, a tracking poll of 11 swing states — which is what you linked to — is NOT a tracking poll of Ohio, as was claimed earlier.

Fred ™

October 31st, 2012
1:35 pm

It is beyond my comprehension how ya’ll can talk day after day, hour after hour about the stupid assed, and in my opinion, useless, polls.

Not a criticism, you people obviously enjoy it, but nothing new is ever said. Oh well. Ya’ll have fun. tomorrow there will be a NEW poll………..

Keep Up the Good Fight!

October 31st, 2012
1:36 pm

Now that’s strange…. Rasmussen was always Recon’s go to poll when Romney was shown in the lead, now suddenly he does not like it. Wonder if its his coffee that is causing such irritability?

I'm a liberal and believe everything I read and nothing the other side comes up with...cause we're smart and they are not

October 31st, 2012
1:37 pm

Jefferson………..and yo man ain’t crap? Results look like it. Pi$$ poor

Rightwing Troll

October 31st, 2012
1:37 pm

“He’s cool and likes women she said….. I ask, that’s it. She said yea.”

That’s better than the alternative… “he’s uncool, wears mom jeans, and hates women”…

Jay

October 31st, 2012
1:37 pm

“I asked my cute twenty something year old server last night whom she planned to vote for last night. She said Obama. I ask why…..He’s cool and likes women she said….. I ask, that’s it. She said yea.
There ya go. Geez.

That’s a better-reasoned answer than “he’s a Marxist Kenyan anti-colonialist who hates America,” or some version thereof, which we often hear from her opposite number.

Brosephus™

October 31st, 2012
1:37 pm

Look before

You’re probably right on the immediate thing, but it’s coming. We went through a serious credit based recession. People have been paying down debt and saving. The signs show there is a gradual uptick in purchases of consumable goods. I am much more happy for a slow and steady recovery based upon a solid economic foundation as opposed to having another quick, bubble fueled recovery. It seems as though we may actually have a recovery that includes job recovery for once. Our past recoveries have all been jobless, which means they were not recoveries at all.

Fred ™

October 31st, 2012
1:38 pm

I asked my cute twenty something year old server last night whom she planned to vote for last night. She said Obama. I ask why…..He’s cool and likes women she said….. I ask, that’s it. She said yea.
There ya go. Geez.

translation: You were talking to someone who DOESN’T worship talk radio. Someone who DOESN’T believe rape is God’s will and that she should be forced to carry a rape baby to term. You were talking to someone who has a job that DOESN’T provide any benefits much less health care. You were talking to one of those “47% who are moochers.”

Erwin's cat

October 31st, 2012
1:39 pm

wears mom jeans

both candidates do that…why not levi’s I’ll never ever know

Joe Hussein Mama

October 31st, 2012
1:39 pm

KUTGF — “Last time I flew over the country I did not see 57 states….”

If you fly in First Class, they give you special glasses so you can look out the windows and see the dotted lines that mark state borders. :D

Jay

October 31st, 2012
1:39 pm

No problem, Look. I find myself doing that too at times.

Brosephus™

October 31st, 2012
1:39 pm

Fred

Check my 1:31 link. Those are the only poles that matter. :)

Erwin's cat

October 31st, 2012
1:40 pm

but i’d rather see’em in Mom jeans than “skinny” jeans

Fred ™

October 31st, 2012
1:41 pm

Finn McCool (The System isn’t Broken; It’s Fixed)

October 31st, 2012
1:24 pm

Jay’s ready for Wednesday so the only polls he has to look at are the poles at the Cheetah!

Back to normalcy!!
+++++++++++++++++++++

There ya go, we can have a poll watching party at the pole dancing place……..

Tech Man

October 31st, 2012
1:41 pm

Jay
October 31st, 2012
1:37 pm

I’ll bet you dollars to donuts (of course depending on the donuts they may be worth more than a dollar) that the young lady doesn’t make it to the polls.

JamVet

October 31st, 2012
1:42 pm

You’re not smart, did you stiff her on the tip?

Probably.

Get the popcorn ready good peeps; the neocon meltdowns next week should be epic…

Tundra Dude

October 31st, 2012
1:43 pm

KUTGF — “Last time I flew over the country I did not see 57 states….”

If you fly in First Class, they give you special glasses so you can look out the windows and see the dotted lines that mark state borders.

LOL!!! Good Wun!
(He musta been in the back with Newtie)

DebbieDoRight - A Do Right Woman

October 31st, 2012
1:43 pm

AqG: Discussing polls at this point is like throwing fresh steak to starving tigers. I’m gonna get my popcorn.

Hey, Save some for me!

SwamiDave

October 31st, 2012
1:43 pm

Jay:

Your “plantive plea” is an outcropping of the logic that you are basing your conclusion.

The trends that the recent polling has shown has been an eroding of Obama’s lead. States that were formerly close are now likely to be Romney wins. States that were more solidly in Obama’s favor are moving into the toss-up category.

Independents (both in polling as well as the early voting results) have been trending to Romney and historic patterns dictate that the Undecided usually break for the challenger (if they do vote).

In addition to these, the open question of “What will 2012 look like?” introduces an underlying bias to all polls. The polling result comes as a consequence of the sampling that was used to produce it. Most polls appearing to favor Obama assume that the turnout & affiliation will match 2008. Some go so far as to assume a higher distribution of Democrats than existed even at 2008’s record numbers. Most polls appearing to favor Romney assume numbers that match 2004 (when turnout & affiliation was almost equal).

If the numbers match 2008, Obama will be re-elected. If they do not, Romney will be elected. Your expectations for the election result are governed by your assumptions of who will cast the votes.

-SD