Sandy raises the odds of major election-night surprises
This election season already had many of the ingredients of a pollster’s nightmare. Millions of Americans are abandoning land-line telephones, and thanks to caller ID and obnoxious telemarketing, millions of others refuse to answer those landlines unless they know who the caller is. The increased use of cellphones — many young people use them as text machines or for Internet access, seldom taking calls on their phones — have made it difficult to be confident that you’re getting your demographics right.
Throw in the growing use of early voting and the difficulty of predicting what the 2012 electorate will look like, and you have a real potential for polling mistakes.
And then, of course, there’s Hurricane Sandy. Millions of Americans are without power, hundreds of thousands have evacuated, thousands have seen their homes destroyed or seriously damaged and at last count roughly 30 people have been killed. According to weather forecasters, the storm is far from over as it moves inland.
That kind of devastation and dislocation makes the presidential race and Senate races impossible to poll. Gallup has announced that it has suspended its national tracking poll for that very reason. There are other questions as well: How will the storm affect turnout next week? It will undoubtedly affect some groups and some regions more than others, but which ones? And will government’s response to the storm, either effective or ineffective, alter how people vote?
At this point in the race, political professionals are usually trying to eliminate as many variables as possible. They want no surprises, and they want data they can rely upon. This time, they’ll have none of those things. Campaigns, pundits, pollsters and voters will be going into next week’s election with a degree of uncertainty that we haven’t seen in decades, particularly in the regions most affected by the storm.
And an already considerable potential for major election-night surprises becomes even more significant.
– Jay Bookman
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159 comments Add your comment
Williebkind
October 30th, 2012
3:30 pm
“W’s FEMA director Michael Brown is upset with Obama for such poor acting TOO SOON on the hurricane.”
There fixed you error!
Brosephus™
October 30th, 2012
3:30 pm
A defense official told The Washington Times that an elite commando team called the Commander’s In-Extremis Force had been deployed to a U.S. air base in Sicily, about an hour’s flight from Benghazi, “within hours” of the start of the attack.
Will y’all get one story and stick with it? Yesterday, that base was two hours away. Today, it’s an hour. I guess that it will be a floating base within sight of the Libyan coastline by this weekend.
Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette
October 30th, 2012
3:32 pm
Tommy Maddox
Your candidate is great…just ask Carrel Hilton Sheldon!
Williebkind
October 30th, 2012
3:32 pm
“Will y’all get one story and stick with it? ”
What? You didnt see the video!
Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette
October 30th, 2012
3:33 pm
Bro
Elite commandos?
Beam them up!
(Jim Beam probably)
getalife
October 30th, 2012
3:34 pm
Another moment of unity to stand up and show patriotism but the cons just have to get our President.
Iraq soldier
October 30th, 2012
3:34 pm
Hey – Tommy Maddox
October 30th, 2012
“Our President is great. Just ask Chris” Stephens.
———————————————————————-
Republicans are great!
Just ask the 4347 soliders killed in Iraq since “Mission Accomplished” (5/1/03)
Oh yeah. You can’t.
JamVet
October 30th, 2012
3:35 pm
Nobody could possibly show such humiliating ignorance and deflection for real, could they?
You are kidding, right?
It sure is nice that it took two national emergencies in less than month for Obama to act presidential!
Unlike that idiot in the White House from 2000 – 2008 who botched every single one of them, right willie?
LOL at you Bushbot sad sacks…
Brosephus™
October 30th, 2012
3:36 pm
What? You didnt see the video!
What in the hell does a video have to do with what I addressed? Does the video show the base where the elite team was put together?
Why don’t you read the complete post for once before responding instead of just trying to be an irritating attention whore?
East Cobb RINO, Inc (LLC)
October 30th, 2012
3:37 pm
If W was still in the White House he would be standing in Battery Park with a “mission accomplished” banner behind him.
UNCLE SAMANTHA
October 30th, 2012
3:37 pm
Nice to know Obama JUMPS for WALL STREET and the HAMPTONS when a storm hits…………..
GOTTA PROTECT THE 1% so he can berate them before he pretends he will raise their taxes
getalife
October 30th, 2012
3:39 pm
mitt the coward refuses to answer fema questions.
Failed leader again.
getalife
October 30th, 2012
3:41 pm
Mitt to Christie:
You are on your own.
Mighty Righty
October 30th, 2012
3:41 pm
Granny Godzilla – Union Thugette
Let me refresh your memory. The Romney comments were in aanswer to a specifc question about the toronado damge in Joplin. Mo. That tornado as powerfil as it was for the most part damaged homes and busineses which are covered by home owners or business insurance. Damage to power lines, telephones etc. are handled by utility companies. There was little infrstructure damage. So the comments were directed at the insane notion that the todays tax payers of the United States should borrow money from China mortgaging our children’s future to pay back the borrowed money because a few present day idiots don’t have enough foresight to plan for their own emergencies. Romney never said the state government first then the federal government shouldn’t try to help with repairing infrstructure. I would be in favor of You, Me and everyone, no exception for poverty, reach in our own pockets to pay for disasters as they occur and leave our children alone. If we wnat to spend money fine lets increase our taxes. Everyones taxes increased on a pay as we go, not put it off on someone else If we don’t want to pay, then don’t ask to play.
Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette
October 30th, 2012
3:42 pm
uncle samantha
are you mrs. redneck convert?
Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette
October 30th, 2012
3:43 pm
Mighty Righty
You kinda cute when you get your jockey pants all in a wad like that.
You can no more tell me what Mitt Romney meant than HE can.
Williebkind
October 30th, 2012
3:44 pm
“Why don’t you read the complete post for once before responding instead of just trying to be an irritating attention whore?”
I did and just like your wife said, “Your boring!”
Williebkind
October 30th, 2012
3:46 pm
“You can no more tell me what Mitt Romney meant than HE can.”
That is statement of fact! You cannot tell a stop sign anything.
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
October 30th, 2012
3:50 pm
uncle samantha
are you mrs. redneck convert?
Watch it, Granny! Or else the missus will visit you and stomp your rear end flatter than your chest.
UNCLE SAMANTHA
October 30th, 2012
3:50 pm
OBAMA has the Perrier and Caviar all loaded up heading to the Hamptoms so the 1% don’t suffer
also promises to get the golf courses restored as priority #1
Williebkind
October 30th, 2012
3:52 pm
Watch it, Granny! Or else the missus will visit you and stomp your rear end flatter than your chest.
Now that is funny! Best I have read today..
Brosephus™
October 30th, 2012
3:53 pm
I did and just like your wife said, “Your[sic] boring!”
Why don’t you educate yourself first before trying to be cute. Nothing is more pathetic than a dumb attention whore.
Williebkind
October 30th, 2012
3:57 pm
“a dumb attention whore.”
I dont mind the whore part but dumb?
St Simons
October 30th, 2012
3:57 pm
It is against Federal Law for a ‘poll watcher’ to contest a vote or
a voter on election day or at the polls or to tell another citizen
they cannot vote. Report this wingnut behavior if you see it
at ph 866-OUR-VOTE or the
Federal Election Commission at 800-424-9530.
That’s how sneaky they are. See how ‘poll watcher’ looks &
sounds like ‘poll worker?’ and if you say it real fast, some old
person or scared new citizen, or somebody that’s not sharp
to spot a con scum, might be intimidated, or influenced.
getalife
October 30th, 2012
3:58 pm
mitt blew every chance to lead because he is not a leader. Period.
UNCLE SAMANTHA
October 30th, 2012
4:29 pm
getalife
October 30th, 2012
3:58 pm
mitt blew every chance to lead because he is not a leader. Period.
=====================================================================
ROMNEY IS JUST LEADING FROM BEHIND
he will win
Kris Jones
October 30th, 2012
4:31 pm
This wasn’t Katrina!
New York and New Jersey are strong Obama states anyway.
Why act presidential now since you haven’t during the past four years. Can’t fool me Obama.
Vote for Romney on Tuesday! Time for real change not four more years of failure!
Mighty Righty
October 30th, 2012
4:34 pm
St Simons
October 30th, 2012
3:57 pm
It is against Federal Law for a ‘poll watcher’ to contest a vote or
a voter on election day or at the polls or to tell another citizen
they cannot vote. Report this wingnut behavior if you see it
at ph 866-OUR-VOTE or the
Federal Election Commission at 800-424-9530.
This law does not apply to blacks weilding clubs in Philadelphia per Eric Holder so don’t bother reporting it .you could go to jail.
fair and balanced
October 30th, 2012
4:36 pm
There is going to be a surge for Romney after word gets out that he is handing out cans of Campbell Soup as an alternative to FEMA. Those 47% are just using the storm as an excuse to be victims and get a government handout. After all anybody who lives near a large body of water should expect to be flooded or burnt out if a storm occurs. Rescue teams should not waste time and money on those who choose risky behavior. VOTE ROMNEY!
Wee Willy
October 30th, 2012
4:45 pm
Sandy will have zero impact on the election. NJ & NY are historically Democrat leaning. Just waiting for Axelrod or Carney to be the mouthpiece to politicize this disaster. The over/under for that happening is by Thursday.
The concern for re-election is the dramatic shift in Independents and the closing of the gender gap. Those are real numbers and will not move based on these recent events.
RF
October 30th, 2012
4:51 pm
“he people are fed up with the “progressive” policies which have bankrupted nearly every state and the entire nation.”
I wouldn’t be so sure about that. They DO remember that you guys were in control when the economy crashed and that it was your guy’s wars, tax cuts, and deregulation that led to it all. Technically, your guys bankrupted the country….just in case bretibart.com and the others erased that part of history for you. They also see what nuts some of the governors they elected have turned out to be. While the devoted won’t change, the opposition has been encouraged to fight. You might win the WH and keep the house. The Senate- don’t be so sure just yet.
Mighty Righty
October 30th, 2012
4:58 pm
RF
One big problem with your conclusion. Two years ago almost to the day the Republicans took over the House, made gains in the Senate, gained a zillion state legislative seats, and most governorships with exactly your examples in play at the time,
Mighty Righty
October 30th, 2012
5:14 pm
Don’t call FEMA for food. They don’t feed people. In fact they don’t do anything that will help people in need. The federal government’s idea of disaster relief is to offer low interest loan guaranty’s to the victims.. If ou want help, call Romney he will at least give you somethinhg.
Mighty Righty
October 30th, 2012
5:19 pm
Did you hear Obama’s speech to the victims of the hurricane today? He said, “I want you to know that the government will stand behind you”. I am not kidding. There he is standing in the rear!! LOL.
Breyawna
October 30th, 2012
5:42 pm
“…millions of others refuse to answer those landlines unless they know who the caller is”
I’ve never been polled about my voting preference, and when you ask most folks they say they’ve never been polled.
So who are these people that the pollsters manage to get on the phone and whose interview responses are bandied about by the media as predictive of election outcomes? My guess is they’re talking to a lot of people who don’t work and just sit around the house – which leads me to believe they’re mostly talking to Democrats.
Peter
October 30th, 2012
5:42 pm
Mighty Righty……….. wow coming UN-glued ? What did you want him to say…we are standing to the right of you ?
OedipusTax
October 30th, 2012
5:46 pm
Gallup has had Romney up 51-46 for a while. Most other polls have all been trending towards Romney. Only Bookman and his blind cronies can talk “surprise” or blame Sandy. The Obama disgrace of Benghazi, along with his betrayl of almost every single campaign promise of 2008, has led the American population to recognize Obama as a worse President than Carter. All Obama offers is blame, class envy, racial bias, and a narcissistic ego.
Now, however, Jay Bookman and other desperate liberals have to come up with some conspiracy to explain why this horrific disaster as President is going to be defeated. And then? You can bet Bookman will not accept the verdict of the Ameircan people, and will advocate they rebel against the honest majority of decent Americans. Just how Bookman would prefer a divine dictatorship run by Obama will soon be on display. And at the forefront of that dictatorship, with the highest goosestep, you can be would be Jay Bookman right through an American version of “The Night of Broken Glass”.
Peter
October 30th, 2012
5:48 pm
UNCLE SAMANTHA ……. unless your money is under a mattress….. You too should want Wall Street back in business.
Peter
October 30th, 2012
5:51 pm
OedipusTax.. Wow.look like you are coming UN-glued as well…..all pretty funny stuff…
Education in the south ?
Doug
October 30th, 2012
5:55 pm
Obama has no problem spending money. No telling how much money will be wasted here!!
Mighty Righty
October 30th, 2012
5:56 pm
Peter
I know this will be diffiullt to understand but a very well known and a common accusation of the president has been, “he leads from behind.” Interpret that as being a coward like his actions during the Benghazi terrorist attack and in having others take the heat for his decision. So when on television he says,”I will stand behind you” that is where we would expect him to be. He is not a leader.
Peter
October 30th, 2012
6:00 pm
Mighty Righty . So we should invade ?
Peter
October 30th, 2012
6:00 pm
Mighty Righty . Did you vote for Bush twice ? Was he a leader ?
Peter
October 30th, 2012
6:04 pm
Doug……. Speaking of wasted money how did that Iraq War turn out for the typical American ?
You know.. ” Cost Plus contracts” .. and deficits don’t matter ?
Doug
October 30th, 2012
6:08 pm
Peter I didn’t support the war bud!! I think Bush was awful and Obama even worse!!!
Doug
October 30th, 2012
6:11 pm
How can you defend Obama at all. The guy has been an awful President!! He should be fired! If Romney doesn’t fix the economy in 4 years he will be fired too and Hillary will be President.
Glass House Rocker
October 30th, 2012
6:20 pm
Where was Pat Robertson when we really needed him? Is he still on the 700 club? Is he still a Republican?
7 MORE DAYS!!
October 30th, 2012
6:25 pm
Romney wins cakewalk- 52% – 47%, (other 1% wasted votes for losers), proving Romney’s assertion that 47% of the electorate will vote for Obama no matter what. When Obama is out, who will be the MSM’s next Messiah?
Elliot Spitzer
October 30th, 2012
7:11 pm
The President should have responded sooner to the storm damaged area.
TH FROM MC
October 30th, 2012
7:22 pm
The affirmative action president experience is about to end. Obama’s walnut sized brain is just now beginning to comprehend that fact. Only qualified people can be president – unless you are black.
Vast Right Wing Conspiracy (aka "Knuckle-Dragger")
October 30th, 2012
7:43 pm
I saw a political cartoon from a British publication the other day. One guy says to a lady, “Did you hear they are sending welfare checks to dead Americans?” And the lady replies, “Why shouldn’t they get a check, they voted.” Great stuff.
wayne
October 30th, 2012
8:10 pm
How can anybody in their right mind want an economic idiot like Obama to be reelected. They haven’t seen business after business closing. The ones that are open don’t have any funds. Go to resort areas and the hotels are run down because they are broke. There are no lines at the theme parks in Orlando. NASCAR races are about half full in some cases. When the economy was at it’s worst Obama went after businesses with vengeance. He is a chronic liar as witnessed on youtube 65 outrageous lies told by president Obama. This is him telling them on camera. Charitable organizations don’t have money because donors don’t. I don’t want to continue to see our country broke like this, get the idiot and his socialist ideas out of the White house and let him pay for his own 100 rounds of golf and fly his own airplane!
Carl
October 30th, 2012
9:22 pm
It is a shame our Ambassador lost his life over a video.
Carl
October 30th, 2012
9:24 pm
The hurricane is all Obama’s fault.
He promised that the oceans would recede and our planet would begin to heal as soon as he was elected.
lefty_316
October 30th, 2012
9:24 pm
Any politician that votes to de-fund Planned Parenthood and then turns around and tries to pretend they are actually a fiscal conservative is nothing but a dirty filthy lying hypocrite.
Michele Bachmann rot in hell for eternity.
Junior Samples
October 30th, 2012
10:05 pm
Wonder if Obammy and some of his posse (ACORN, black panthers) will try to steal the election? Just food for thought.
Needabailout,too!
October 30th, 2012
10:34 pm
Wonder how the Romney campaign will spend the 45 million they raised last month in the next six days, since the presidential campaign is essentially over due to the need for catastrophic weather sensitivities? They certainly can’t produce new Romney commercials. Wonder how frustrating that must feel for them, as they can only watch, while we see the President each day on TV as he leads a nation through a crisis?
Tommy Maddox
October 30th, 2012
10:38 pm
Iraq Soldier: oh were you sent on the mission authorized by Congress? Well I hope you got your pay check as per the Regs.
Granny: Carrel Hilton Sheldon? Keep searching.
Angela
November 4th, 2012
1:40 am
@Oscar, if you are judging by electoral votes, Obama has this for sure! He is leading in almost all the swing states including Ohio. Florida is tied and so is Colorado, but take a look at this! http://electoral-vote.com/