Hurricane Sandy: ‘Beyond strange … unprecedented

Source: The Weather Channel

Source: The Weather Channel

Looking at the predictions regarding Hurricane Sandy, I’m reminded of the horror and awe I felt looking at the satellite pictures of Hurricane Katrina before it reached shore, knowing the damage and destruction it seemed certain to cause.

Only there’s a chance this might be worse:

“We looking at one of the worst storms on record that we’ve seen in this region.”

– Carl Parker, hurricane specialist for The Weather Channel

Brian Norcross of the National Weather Service writes on his Facebook page:

“Isn’t it strange that a hurricane in the Bahamas would somehow turn into a monster mega-storm and slam into the Northeast at the end of October? Aren’t hurricanes supposed to weaken as they move north over cold water? What the hell is going on?

The answers are… yes, yes, and we’re not completely sure. This is a beyond-strange situation. It’s unprecedented and bizarre. Hurricanes almost always bend out to sea in October, although there have been some exceptions when storms went due north, but rarely. No October tropical systems in the record book have turned left into the northeast coast.

The strong evidence we have that a significant, maybe historic, storm is going to hit the east coast is that EVERY reliable computer forecast model now says it’s going to happen. The only way we can forecast the weather four or five days from now is with the aid of these super-complex computer programs run on supercomputers. The two best, the European and the U.S. GFS (Global Forecast System) run by NOAA, are now in reasonable agreement that there IS going to be an extraordinarily unusual confluence of events that results in a massive storm….

The forecast is for an incredibly widespread and long-duration windstorm, meaning power will likely be out for an extended period of time in a lot of locations.

A transistor radio is your best friend in a situation like this. Get one and enough batteries to keep it going. Your cell phone may or may not be your friend after a big storm…. This storm, as forecast, will create dangerous and potentially life-threatening storm surge along hundreds of miles of coastline north of where the center comes ashore. Big storms move a lot of water, and this one is about as big as they come.

As Norcross notes, there’s a full moon Monday, meaning tides will be running high as well.

Mike Smith, a top executive of Accuweather, posts the following on his blog, along with a plea to people in the mid-Atlantic region to vote now, because “if the stronger models are correct, power could still be out in some places on election day:”

A very prominent and respected National Weather Service meteorologist wrote on Facebook last night:

“I’ve never seen anything like this and I’m at a loss for expletives to describe what this storm could do.”

Yes, I’ve never seen anything like it either nor have our modern meteorological tools. As I wrote yesterday afternoon, we don’t know whether our tools are up to the task because no storm of this nature has occurred in the modern meteorological era….

Power will fail in a large geographic area. There is a fair amount of inconsistent information this morning pertaining to peak gusts, i.e., will they be 60 mph or 80 mph? But, since power often fails with a 60 mph gust, it may not matter.

Because of the geographic extent (winds capable of causing power failures in a swath hundreds of miles in width), there could be massive power failures and, once out, the power may be out for weeks….

The storm surge will be destructive. Because wind speed and direction are so important, I can’t offer a map of predicted storm surges yet. But, there will be areas where the combination of full moon, waves of more than 20 feet, and storm surge cause great destruction in coastal areas.

We are in uncharted territory here. I believe this will be a major storm that will dominate the news for days. Prepare accordingly.”

– Jay Bookman

264 comments Add your comment

getalife

October 26th, 2012
1:18 pm

This is a rare occurrence when I hope it turns right.

getalife

October 26th, 2012
1:18 pm

stands for decibels

October 26th, 2012
1:22 pm

So many friends and family in that path.

Not sure what to say, except that I can only hope the forecasters have over-reacted.

Keep Up the Good Fight! -- Super Liberal!

October 26th, 2012
1:22 pm

We seem to be facing a lot of unprecedented weather events in the past few years….. but I am sure its all coincidence. No need to worry or to say that perhaps if we really care about the “future for our children” we may want to take actions to be sure we are not part of the problem.

josef

October 26th, 2012
1:24 pm

Ah! “Reminded of Katrina…” Shouldn’t be long before we can get the black-white, GOP-Democrat nyah-nyanh started… :-)

Marty Huggins'

October 26th, 2012
1:26 pm

Aquagirl

October 26th, 2012
1:26 pm

Wow, even the hurricanes are in with the climatologist’s conspiracy to destroy free innerprize.

Maybe they have that VHS tape somebody here rented….”Hurricane Sandy Slams Jamaica” and are using it for blackmail.

Marty Huggins'

October 26th, 2012
1:27 pm

Hopefully people listen and follow evacuation orders if they are given.
Doesn’t seem like one to try and ride out.

stands for decibels

October 26th, 2012
1:28 pm

I guess if we rational people agreed to at least try not to politicize what is shaping up to be a national tragedy (some people WILL die, many many more will see their fortunes destroyed…) for, say, the next 300 posts or so, and not take the bait that some here will try to set…

Well, it won’t make a hill of beans’ worth of difference, but maybe we ought to try.

Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)

October 26th, 2012
1:28 pm

the October Surprise?

Marty Huggins'

October 26th, 2012
1:28 pm

I seriously have no idea why it says ho for my post at 1:26.

I thought I typed the following post only.

No offense was meant to any hoes

Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)

October 26th, 2012
1:29 pm

Well, they need to allow the people to vote once the power is on but I doubt many voters would be thinking about that after this hits.

ragnar danneskjold

October 26th, 2012
1:29 pm

Go buy your milk and bread now, before the four inch snowstorm hits.

getalife

October 26th, 2012
1:30 pm

mitt’s big speech is just more crying and lying about our President same ole stump speech.

Spineless and weak.

Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)

October 26th, 2012
1:31 pm

Of course Global Cooling has nothing to do with this.

Marty Huggins'

October 26th, 2012
1:31 pm

getalife
October 26th, 2012
1:30 pm

On topic as usual

Joe Hussein Mama

October 26th, 2012
1:32 pm

Heh! The banner ad at the top of my page is for Harrah’s Cherokee Casino.

Its slogan? “Enjoy The Thrill Of The Spin”. Oy! :D

getalife

October 26th, 2012
1:33 pm

marty,

Thanks, I do hope it turns right.

Keep Up the Good Fight! -- Super Liberal!

October 26th, 2012
1:33 pm

Climate Central reported that the jet stream winds boxing in Sandy and creating a “Frankenstorm” are part of “blocking patterns [which] have appeared with greater frequency and intensity in recent years.” Some scientists have suggested the patterns could be linked to 2012’s record Arctic sea ice loss, which exposes more open water to absorb the sun’s energy.

STEVIE RAY

October 26th, 2012
1:36 pm

The forecasters have a mixed history in this vein but I believe them however, this forecast can change at a moments notice..fun facts only an insurance geek like me generally appreciate:

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season produced 20 tropical cyclones, 19 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. It featured an above average number of tropical storms with a near normal number of major hurricanes

The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is a very active atlantic hurricane season in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation that has so far seen 19 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and only 1 major hurricane

“Insured catastrophe losses are down somewhere in the order of 50% from last year,” when U.S. insurers saw roughly $32 billion in losses, according to Insurance Information Institute president and economist Robert Hartwig, storm and flooding activity have declined from 2011, who adds that “Hurricane, or Tropical Storm Sandy could alter that, but it’s too soon to tell.”

Bear in mind that in instance where stikes occur in more high poverty density locations (ie New Orleans), many do not have wind/flood cover so these are not included in this number..However, if Sandy hits the forecasted area, we will see much more insured damage relative to uninsured…

Damn I love insurance:-)

Marty Huggins'

October 26th, 2012
1:36 pm

getalife
October 26th, 2012
1:33 pm

And Romney’s stump speech can help or harm the storms direction how?

getalife

October 26th, 2012
1:38 pm

Marty,

The hot air helps the hurricane.

josef

October 26th, 2012
1:39 pm

I can gather all the news I need on the weather report…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJGSHMgbB0E

St Simons

October 26th, 2012
1:40 pm

‘Hurricane Sandy Slams Jamaica’

I think I rented that VHS tape in college.

jewcowboy

October 26th, 2012
1:40 pm

Is this Mother Nature’s way of getting the candidates to finally talk about global warming?

Marty Huggins'

October 26th, 2012
1:40 pm

getalife
October 26th, 2012
1:38 pm

Awe if that was the case we would have massive hurricanes every 4 years with the amount of hot air from not only candidates of both sides of the isle but their supporters as well.

stands for decibels

October 26th, 2012
1:43 pm

Patrick

October 26th, 2012
1:43 pm

Everyone please say it with me–

“Auntie Em, It’s a twister!! It’s a twister!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DErOM2tIfwM

Regnad Kcin

October 26th, 2012
1:44 pm

“I can gather all the news I need on the weather report…”

Thanks for that, josef! :)

getalife

October 26th, 2012
1:44 pm

“Chevron Gives $2.5 Million To House Republican Super PAC ” Aol.

Both candidates ignored climate change because of this.

ByteMe - Got ilk?

October 26th, 2012
1:45 pm

Since this will happen on Tuesday, does this put Pennsylvania back in play for Romney? :)

St Simons

October 26th, 2012
1:46 pm

we’re getting 40 mph gusts at the water

it blew my chips & salsa off the table at lunch.
oh the humanity

getalife

October 26th, 2012
1:46 pm

Thulsa Doom

October 26th, 2012
1:47 pm

“Climate Central reported that the jet stream winds boxing in Sandy and creating a “Frankenstorm” are part of “blocking patterns [which] have appeared with greater frequency and intensity in recent years.”

What constitutes “recent years”. A decade or so? You gonna base your climate change crap on a few “recent years” of data?

“Some scientists have suggested the patterns could be linked to 2012’s record Arctic sea ice loss, which exposes more open water to absorb the sun’s energy.”

Key word being “could”. Lemme know when they prove it sport.

stands for decibels

October 26th, 2012
1:47 pm

Since this will happen on Tuesday

Election day is on the day before Halloween this year?

bookman parrot

October 26th, 2012
1:47 pm

to stands for decibels,

how would a storm be politicized. the bait? what are you talking about??

josef

October 26th, 2012
1:47 pm

REGNARD

Welcome…just getting in the mood for FNM a few hours early… :-)

He-ne-ha

Where was yore tacky red ass downstairs…damn Muscogee… :-)

ByteMe - Got ilk?

October 26th, 2012
1:48 pm

Election day is on the day before Halloween this year?

AAAUGH! Poor Romney can’t even catch a break on death and destruction in a swing state.

Georgia

October 26th, 2012
1:48 pm

Frankenstorm could be viewed as a douche for Romney. A stupifying splash of water to wash away the demicrobial voters. Like what happened in the mohammed video. It………Could……..WORK!!!!

Butch Cassidy (I)

October 26th, 2012
1:49 pm

Have the Republicans come out to blame Obama yet?

ByteMe - Got ilk?

October 26th, 2012
1:49 pm

All that hand-wringing on the part of the weather channel and NOT ONE WORD about how it’ll affect Aaron Murray’s passes.

Don’t they have ANY perspective?? :)

stands for decibels

October 26th, 2012
1:50 pm

how would a storm be politicized. the bait? what are you talking about??

Can someone with elementary school teaching experience handle this one for me?

JamVet

October 26th, 2012
1:50 pm

Hang tough, you folks in the path of this monster.

I can only hope that that there will not be too much suffering ahead…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIPan-rEQJA

ByteMe - Got ilk?

October 26th, 2012
1:50 pm

Have the Republicans come out to blame Obama yet?

This must be the hell fire that Erickson proclaimed was going to happen because of that “First Time” ad.

Aquagirl

October 26th, 2012
1:51 pm

Jay, I hope you have some really soothing music cued up. The meltdowns today are in dire need of a lullaby and a paci.

jewcowboy

October 26th, 2012
1:52 pm

A little Friday weatherman humor: http://youtu.be/UznHzFoKVeQ

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

October 26th, 2012
1:52 pm

Hurricane thelma is here now.

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

October 26th, 2012
1:55 pm

Election day is on the day before Halloween this year?

Why not?

Game 7 (if necessary) of The World Series is in November.

alex

October 26th, 2012
1:55 pm

Was in a hurricane in va about 10 years ago, roof crushed in,, but amazing how the city pulled together, I guarantee you this is NO FUN.

@ St. Simmons, RUN for cover, hide the children(and the mistress), the russians are coming……
pass the guacomole

Aquagirl

October 26th, 2012
1:56 pm

Hurricane thelma is here now

Hurricane? Nah. Thelma is one of those weak depressions that meanders aimlessly for a while and then fizzles in the middle of nowhere.

St Simons

October 26th, 2012
1:57 pm

‘Where was yore tacky red ass downstairs…damn Muscogee… ‘

hey josef, in & out, Q3 statements going out by today dammit.
what happened downstairs, and will i need my tommyhawk?
ha, at least we don’t have the same word for ‘thank you’ and ‘penis’

Keep Up the Good Fight! -- Super Liberal!

October 26th, 2012
1:58 pm

Speedosquirt gets smackdowned and whines from prior blog to current. But more moving the goalpost from a lying poster. Doom’s claim: Are you saying that you never even posted a link saying that Powell admits that the U.S. misrepresented WMDs to the U.N. Are you saying that you never posted a link similar to this one on that speech?… So Speedochicken moves the goal posts to: So explain again how you didn’t suggest that Powell was dishonest? Its sooooo sad to see the lies and the dishonesty of the child who then makes boom-boom.

The swirling storm is the mushroom cloud. Frankly, I don’t care what you think on the subject of climate change. You have demonstrated it’s not your expertise nor the capacity to judge.

Thulsa Doom

October 26th, 2012
1:59 pm

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

October 26th, 2012
1:52 pm
Hurricane thelma is here now.

Dust devil kamchak takes note.

Mick

October 26th, 2012
1:59 pm

Well, it’s been hit and miss rain with strong winds…nothing too serious down this way. As a matter of fact, some great sunshine right now until the next band moves through. Good time to stay indoors, jam to some tunes and clean up…

Butch Cassidy (I)

October 26th, 2012
2:01 pm

THIS JUST IN: Mitt Romney points to Hurricane Sandy as an example of President Obamas failed ecological policies. The former Governor then went on to promises that on his first day in office he will construct a weather protection shield around the United States to prevent future tragedies. Film at eleven. :)

josef

October 26th, 2012
2:01 pm

jewcowboy

As Big Daddy says…unprecedented

:-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGLZqDXau98

Thulsa Doom

October 26th, 2012
2:02 pm

“The swirling storm is the mushroom cloud.”

kamspam

“Frankly, I don’t care what you think on the subject of climate change.”

Frankly, I disagree.

“You have demonstrated it’s not your expertise nor the capacity to judge.”

So sayeth klimatologist keep.

Thulsa Doom

October 26th, 2012
2:03 pm

Keep’s hero gets a slapdown
Keep goes into meltdown

jewcowboy

October 26th, 2012
2:03 pm

josef,

I don’t want it raining men…they might get bruised. ;)

Keep Up the Good Fight! -- Super Liberal!

October 26th, 2012
2:04 pm

I do think that the Tasmanian Devil whips up more of a whirlwind than doom….. he’s more of the swirl you see in the toilet as you flush.

josef

October 26th, 2012
2:05 pm

He-ne-ha

The U-ne-ga Chief of the Liberal Plantation put up a new thread before it could get going… as usual…

“ha, at least we don’t have the same word for ‘thank you’ and ‘penis’”

Ha, yourself…from the two-spirit POV… :-)

St Simons

October 26th, 2012
2:05 pm

alex – ‘hide the children(and the mistress)…’

alex, jus guessing here, but you’re not familiar with shawnee women,
are you? that would be like 5 katrinas

Joe Hussein Mama

October 26th, 2012
2:06 pm

Doom — “So sayeth klimatologist keep.”

D
O
U
C
H
E
L
I
K
E
!

:D

Jessica

October 26th, 2012
2:06 pm

As my relatives in St. Simons would say, who needs bread and milk…better stock up on beer!

josef

October 26th, 2012
2:07 pm

jewcowboy

Well, yeah, there is that… :-)

MANGLER

October 26th, 2012
2:07 pm

Just like we in the South say “it’s not the heat it’s the humidity”, Northerners need to remember that “it’s not the wind it’s the water”. Skyscrapers and brick buildings will withstand high winds pretty well. Basements and river-valley villages won’t like the storm surge and subsequent rainfall flooding. Stay safe ya’ll.

Fred ™

October 26th, 2012
2:07 pm

Jessica: There is yeast in beer just like in bread. :lol:

Thulsa Doom

October 26th, 2012
2:08 pm

“Game 7 (if necessary) of The World Series is in November.”

In liberal fantasyland world series consist of 6 game series. Such is the logic of a kook.

stands for decibels

October 26th, 2012
2:08 pm

One place I hope is spared…

http://www.congresshall.com/

Georgia

October 26th, 2012
2:09 pm

Colin Powell’s guilt is self evident. He stood up with a laser pointer and asked, “Ist das nicht ein centrifuge?” and his staff enjoined, “Ya! Das ist Ein Centrifuge”. “Ist das nicht ein rocket launcher?” Ya, das ist ein rocket launcher.

We all saw it. Powell lied bald faced knowing full well he was lying at the bequest of Cheney, our commander in chief at the time. It’s a world wide proven fact 100% that no one disputes. So did Rice lie. Rocket tubes as centrifuges? Rice is as fit to be president as is Powell is fit to be president.

Obama is fit to be president and we’re lucky to have him. ANd Frankenstorm is the result of the chaos that rules the weather. In fact, if we could learn the math, Frankenstorm was a mathematical certainty. It has to do with solar formation, and the way nobody knows how galaxies are the necessary byproducts of black hole formation. Any human cause attributed to our climate other than local smog, a slight addition to the weight of the moon, and the aurora borealis ganham patterns are blind guesses.

Jean

October 26th, 2012
2:09 pm

People, go vote before the storm hits, or you might lose your vote!

Jessica

October 26th, 2012
2:10 pm

Yeah, but bread does not give you a buzz.

Thulsa Doom

October 26th, 2012
2:10 pm

Keep Up the Good Fight! — Super Liberal!

October 26th, 2012
2:04 pm
“I do think that the Tasmanian Devil whips up more of a whirlwind than doom”

I concur. Being full of hot air I’ve no doubt that he does. You too.

Georgia on my mind....

October 26th, 2012
2:10 pm

Okay folks, remember that the polls will be open until 7 pm tonight and open back up tomorrow (Saturday, October 27). If you have any problems voting, you can call
1 866 MYVOTE 1. Mr. President we WILL give Georgia to you as an early Christmas present…If you are not sure what polling places are open for early voting check here:

http://sos.ga.gov/elections/CountyContacts/AdvanceVotingDisplay.aspx

WE GOT THIS!!!

Regnad Kcin

October 26th, 2012
2:10 pm

“In liberal fantasyland world series consist of 6 game series. Such is the logic of a kook.”

Mr. Doom – this is going to be a 4-game series…:D

stands for decibels

October 26th, 2012
2:11 pm

Another place, immortalized by duh brudduhz Ramone:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6siGKxcKol0

What a tax cut!!!

October 26th, 2012
2:12 pm

hamiltonAZ

October 26th, 2012
2:15 pm

Anyone crunched the numbers on how the election might be affected by the storm? Here are some unscientific thoughts.
1) The camp that gets out the early vote has advantage
2) Assuming some kind of emergency power is available at polling places, working people may vote in higher numbers if there are power outages at their jobs.
3) Wealthy areas will have their power restored first and may be able to vote in higher numbers.
4) Teachers might vote in higher numbers if schools close even for a couple of days.
5) Low income people may be prioritizing survival and not vote.

Georgia

October 26th, 2012
2:15 pm

In case Frankenstorm knocks out all the power and it stays out till election night, then will Diebold volunteer to break out all the old ballot stuffer manual machines that were outlawed after the civil war?

josef

October 26th, 2012
2:15 pm

Well, even I don’t wish this on our cousins Up Nawth…

ZamVet

So, how goes the family time?

Joe Hussein Mama

October 26th, 2012
2:15 pm

Doom — “In liberal fantasyland world series consist of 6 game series. Such is the logic of a kook.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_World_Series

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_World_Series

Joe Hussein Mama

October 26th, 2012
2:16 pm

Thomas Heyward Jr

October 26th, 2012
2:17 pm

Shame!
.
It’s never too late to do wants right and…………decent.

AmericaShrugged

October 26th, 2012
2:17 pm

The Green President has been in office almost four years and we’re getting a record storm? How bout one from Spirit for Friday…It’s nature’s way of telling you somethings wrong……

St Simons

October 26th, 2012
2:18 pm

jessica, its more like, when you get to the store, all the bread & milk

are gone. So – what’ll i do with this monay?

buy beer. its so obvious.

Ronald Reagan Parkway

October 26th, 2012
2:19 pm

Just say NO to Mitt Romney…and the Charter School Amendment.

Rightwing Troll

October 26th, 2012
2:19 pm

Mittens plans an afternoon announcement in which he’ll denounce Obama for apologizing to Sandy…

Aquagirl

October 26th, 2012
2:19 pm

Anyone crunched the numbers on how the election might be affected by the storm?

6) Voting for the party of “what crazy weather?” and “pull yourself up by your bootstraps” might have less appeal.

Keep Up the Good Fight! -- Super Liberal!

October 26th, 2012
2:19 pm

Doggone/GA

October 26th, 2012
2:21 pm

“The Green President has been in office almost four years and we’re getting a record storm?”

We’re really, really sorry you didn’t get the magic wizard president you didn’t vote for.

bman

October 26th, 2012
2:21 pm

You guys argue about hurricanes, too?

forpetesakes

Espanol

October 26th, 2012
2:23 pm

Thulsa Doom

October 26th, 2012
2:23 pm

Joe Mama,

Come on now. That was lame. You can be wittier than that. I expect better from you.

MightyRighty

October 26th, 2012
2:23 pm

“No October tropical systems in the record book have turned left into the northeast coast” except last October when it did exactly the same thing. Surely everyone can remember the New Jersey flooding and the power outages that in some cases took months to repair.

josef

October 26th, 2012
2:24 pm

Well, Joy-zee does know about hurricanes, eh, Monroe from downstairs…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHr6fiyuJJw&feature=related

Doggone/GA

October 26th, 2012
2:24 pm

“forpetesakes”

I think you’re overestimating the leve of your importance, Pete.

JamVet

October 26th, 2012
2:25 pm

josef, thanks for asking. I had a helluva great time. Sunday afternoon it was sunny and 80 and I got to sit in my mom’s back yard and drink beer with her and my brothers.

I’ll tell my Lincoln story a bit later.

More weather related music. (With killer harmonies!)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRB81pHwmcs&feature=related

Aquagirl

October 26th, 2012
2:25 pm

You guys argue about hurricanes, too?

I think they’ve regained their sanity and are now arguing about men in tight pants playing with balls.

Jm

October 26th, 2012
2:25 pm

I will be flying over it shortly.

I’ll report back any super weird things I see. :)

Joe Hussein Mama

October 26th, 2012
2:25 pm

KUTGF — “JHM, be careful…Doom is likely to have another meltdown and move the goalposts on you…… He can’t help it.”

He can melt down all he wants. I don’t live next to him and I don’t have to clean up after him.