The worst possible outcome grows more likely

Charlie Cook, writing in the National Journal, gives voice to the fears of many, me included:

“I am now reconciled to the fact that this will be a race to the wire. I am watching Ohio and a handful of other swing states that are right at, or near, the 270-electoral-vote tipping point. In the end, the odds still favor the popular and electoral vote heading in the same direction, but the chances of a split like the one in 2000 are very real, along with the distinct possibility of ambiguity and vote-counting issues once again putting the outcome in question.”

Please, whatever happens Nov. 6, not that.

One way or the other, we need a clear-cut winner in the White House, not somebody installed there thanks a quirky electoral college or, even worse, the Supreme Court or House of Representatives. A race that tight is also highly likely to touch off bitterly divisive court challenges and lawsuits, along the lines of what happened in 2000.

Given everything, the country actually handled that excruciating process pretty well and, once it was resolved, quickly accepted the legitimacy of the outcome. But political tensions in the last dozen years have heightened, promising considerably more drama and trauma should similar events occur.

So, what are the chances?

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight
puts the odds that a recount will be required in a decisive state this year at a frightening 9.8 percent. The odds of either candidate winning the popular vote but losing in the electoral college are a combined 7.1 percent (Romney 5.2 percent; Obama 1.9 percent). That’s too high — roughly a 15-1 shot for those who bet the horses — for my comfort.

I should also mention that Silver does a pretty efficient dissection of the history of Gallup poll, which currently shows Romney with a seven-point lead among likely voters, well outside the polling consensus. I have tended to treat Gallup as the gold standard among polling, but Silver’s evidence to the contrary is convincing:

In 2008, the Gallup poll put Mr. Obama 11 points ahead of John McCain on the eve of that November’s election.

That was tied for Mr. Obama’s largest projected margin of victory among any of the 15 or so national polls that were released just in advance of the election. The average of polls put Mr. Obama up by about seven points.

The average did a good job; Mr. Obama won the popular vote by seven points. The Gallup poll had a four-point miss, however.

In 2010, Gallup put Republicans ahead by 15 points on the national congressional ballot, higher than other polling firms, which put Republicans an average of eight or nine points ahead instead.

In fact, Republicans won the popular vote for the United States House by about seven percentage points — fairly close to the average of polls, but representing another big miss for Gallup.

Apart from Gallup’s final poll not having been especially accurate in recent years, it has often been a wild ride to get there. Their polls, for whatever reason, have often found implausibly large swings in the race.

In 2000, for example, Gallup had George W. Bush 16 points ahead among likely voters in polling it conducted in early August. By Sept. 20, about six weeks later, they had Al Gore up by 10 points instead: a 26-point swing toward Mr. Gore over the course of a month and a half. No other polling firm showed a swing remotely that large.

Then in October 2000, Gallup showed a 14-point swing toward Mr. Bush over the course of a few days, and had him ahead by 13 points on Oct. 27 — just 10 days before an election that ended in a virtual tie.

In 1996, Gallup had Bill Clinton’s margin over Bob Dole increasing to 25 points from nine points over the course of four days.

After the Republican convention in 2008, Gallup had John McCain leading Mr. Obama by as many as 10 points among likely voters. Although some other polls also had Mr. McCain pulling ahead in the race, no other polling firm ever gave him larger than a four-point lead.

Silver’s conclusion seems appropriate. You can’t disregard Gallup entirely, but when it’s that far outside the polling average you also shouldn’t put much weight on it.

– Jay Bookman

404 comments Add your comment

stands for decibels

October 19th, 2012
7:49 am

people, read the whole 538 linked piece.

At this point in the race, Nate Silver allows the national Gallup poll only 3% of its overall weight, and with good reason–Gallup’s national polling history has been pretty horrible in the past.

Again, it’s not that I think Gallup has their finger on the scale or is biased one way or another. It’s just that their national polls, well, tend to suck at this point in the race.

Thomas

October 19th, 2012
7:49 am

Jay- follow up to your NFL article- you can go to Guidestar- free site with login- the NFL had program service revenue of 191 million Paid Roger Goodell $11.4 million and had 86 million in cash in 2010. A number of instituitons can qualify for non profit status- the main difference being the entities are formed with owners being the “state” v. individuals- ie in liquidation the residual assets go to the state under charter.

Georgia on my mind...

October 19th, 2012
7:51 am

President Obama will win Georgia by 1 percentage point!!

stands for decibels

October 19th, 2012
7:53 am

Please, whatever happens Nov. 6, not that.

I agree.

However, I have to acknowledge that it might not be the worst thing in the world if America’s Republican voters had to walk a few mile in our shoes and lose a super-close one that came down to one state where the voting was somewhat questionable, but wound up going in Obama’s favor.

I don’t want that to happen, but the soul-searching those folks would be forced to do–not just with the hopes that MAYBE some would have some empathy with what we had to tolerate in 2000 and 2004, but also to get an adult conversation going about our archaic Electoral College system, and how we might finally amend our Constitution to make it so everyone’s presidential vote actually counts for something, no matter where in the USA you might choose to live.

(you may say I’m a dreamer, yadda yadda…)

Steve

October 19th, 2012
7:54 am

Obama is going to win. Stop fretting.

stands for decibels

October 19th, 2012
7:54 am

No, Georgia on my mind. He will not.

stands for decibels

October 19th, 2012
7:55 am

…win Georgia, that is. He’ll probably win a second term, however.

Normal Free...Pro Human Rights Thug...And liking it!

October 19th, 2012
7:56 am

Stands,
Your last post downstairs…well said, my friend, well said indeed.

TaxPayer

October 19th, 2012
7:57 am

What is that Republican explanation for poll bias… Oh yes. Gallup must be including too many Republicans in their polling results.

Normal Free...Pro Human Rights Thug...And liking it!

October 19th, 2012
7:59 am

Jay,
But doesn’t early voting indications give president Obama a big lead? If that keeps up, it won’t be close at all…unless the voting machine company, partially owned by Mitt has an…ah, malfunction…

Tim Ryles

October 19th, 2012
7:59 am

Jay, as I recall, JFK used to refer to Gallup as the Republican pollster. Also, most of the national polling does not control for region. This is important for two reasons: (1) we do not elect presidents by popular vote and (2) Romney’s substantial support among white voters in the South distorts national numbers. Goldwater II is still possible, though not by the same margins. Race is still the Continental Divide in most of the South.

barking frog

October 19th, 2012
8:01 am

I think Americans like playing
with pollsters.

stands for decibels

October 19th, 2012
8:01 am

well said, my friend, well said indeed.

It was easy. I used to be That Guy. It was a long time ago, mind you, but like most middle-aged-or-older straight guys, I was raised to think about same-sexers as “deviant.” It can be hard to shake, particularly if you didn’t have the benefit (as I did) of parents who happened to be loving, caring Christians.

There’s a learning curve for the 21st century, and this “mike” fella sounded like he was just a tad behind, was all.

Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...

October 19th, 2012
8:03 am

JAY,

Yesterday, I posted something similar…maybe same sight yesterday referring to only 4 elections in 240 or so years have resulted in winner of popular vote losing…I got no action:-(

The statistics are trending to Romney by a remarkable slope….The U of Colorado model now gives Romney 77% change of winning…this poll has been correct every election since 1980 but that doesn’t mean it will be accurate this year but the interesting thing they did mention is that DEM success wanes when the unemployment rate is above 5.4%..

Also, being a frequent pain in the ass at various left and right sites, it seems to me those on the right are much more ethusiastic as time passes while the left have been becoming much more defensive and, you excluded, are getting overly giddy for the slightest favorable sign…and much more defensive.

Steve

October 19th, 2012
8:04 am

Nate Silver, who is the master pollster predictor, has Obama at a 70% chance winning the Electoral College and Romney losing traction since the first debate bump.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Virginia Voter Registration Destruction Leads To Arrest ...

October 19th, 2012
8:05 am

A Pennsylvania man with ties to Virginia’s Republican Party was arrested Thursday on charges of destroying voter registration forms.
Talking Points Memo reports that Colin Small, of Phoenixville, Pa., worked for a firm hired by the Republican Party of Virginia to register voters. Small was charged with destroying voter registration forms, failing to disclose applications and obstruction of justice. Police told WHSV that additional charges may be forthcoming.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/18/virgina-voter-registration_n_1983384.html

Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette

October 19th, 2012
8:05 am

Chill….We got this.

Steve

October 19th, 2012
8:05 am

Ah, conservatives and their wishful thinking…(ie: Stevie Ray)

Just like Romney-bot’s magical plan to cut MORE taxes and reduce the deficit at the same time.

stands for decibels

October 19th, 2012
8:05 am

What is that Republican explanation for poll bias…

Not about “republican” bias so much, but…among other things, they’ve been slow to incorporate cell phone users into their samples, and probably continue to oversample land lines. (they did announce a change to correct this fairly recently, but who knows how that’s really working out for them.)

It’s a respectable outfit, you just have to understand where their strengths and weaknesses are. I continue to rather compulsively check their Presidential Approval page most days, for instance, because there’s all that history there.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

(by the way, everyone really should compare Obama’s ratings to those of Carter’s, to understand why those on the right who continue to talk about their re-election prospects in similar terms are just being foolish.)

stands for decibels

October 19th, 2012
8:06 am

Yep, Steve. Nate’s pretty circumspect, but a few days ago he said basically “it’s going to go back to Obama being up about a point or so in the popular vote, absent some massive eff-up.”

Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...

October 19th, 2012
8:07 am

STANDS,

Great point about the GOP stepping in BO’s shoes…I feel strongly that because of the dysfunction that defines DC will not change anytime soon, neither candidate will be able to effect any better outcomes..(see BO last 4 years)…..The GOP should be careful what they wish for…

Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...

October 19th, 2012
8:09 am

STEVE,

I’m not voting for either since such action is a vote for the status quo in DC..

You simply just proved the last paragraph in the subject post with great fanfare…

southpaw

October 19th, 2012
8:09 am

ROMNEY-BIDEN!!!
Just kidding, folks. But that would probably happen if both candidates get 269 electoral votes.

Normal Free...Pro Human Rights Thug...And liking it!

October 19th, 2012
8:10 am

stands for decibels

October 19th, 2012
8:01 am

Still, it was a good job and hopefully gave Mike something to think about.

Steve

October 19th, 2012
8:12 am

I didn’t prove anything except that clearly, Obama will win and you cons can breathe a sigh of relief as you don’t like this RINO Romney anyways.

Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...

October 19th, 2012
8:14 am

STEVE,

Additionally, as evidenced by BO, there is no way Romney, if winner, will be able to (or really wants to) successfully complete his promises to end abortion or decrease taxes to the extent suggested..Same obstruction and special interests will (for example the tax lawyers lobby etcetera) allow any changes and lets’ face it, those places are where the big money resides..

It doesn’t matter..
What matters is voter turnout….

Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette

October 19th, 2012
8:14 am

Virginia Voter Registration Destruction Leads To Arrest …

October 19th, 2012
8:05 am

Did you see this?

http://www.politicususa.com/ties-strategic-allied-consulting-american-crossroads.html

Kinda fishy…..

Goldie

October 19th, 2012
8:15 am

Polling schmolling — none of it counts until the evening of Nov.6th!

Obama/Biden 2012 — Forward!

:)

Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...

October 19th, 2012
8:16 am

STEVE,

What data suggests you should, at this point, bet the house on Obama?

HUH?????

October 19th, 2012
8:18 am

Nate Silver? HAHA!!!!! He’s changed his numbers several times over the last few weeks. Bookman is in complete denial that Obama will lose and lose big. Just a few weeks ago Bookman posted a column about Gallup having Obama up and now he dismisses it.

PRICELESS!

ByteMe - Got ilk?

October 19th, 2012
8:18 am

I read the Nate Silver piece last night and thought it (and the link to the piece that explains why Gallup’s “likely voter” methodology stinks) was very insightful and helpful in understanding why Gallup is being an outlier.

Of course, that won’t stop the fools from pushing the one poll while ignoring the others.

AU Liberal in ATL

October 19th, 2012
8:18 am

I’ll be happy with whoever the winner is…… as long as it’s NOT Romney.

The other half of your brain.

October 19th, 2012
8:19 am

I think Romney will win a lot bigger than anyone thinks.

Steve-USA

October 19th, 2012
8:20 am

I will wait until the election. I guess the rest of you have made massive bets at intrade since you are so sure of the results.

Ken

October 19th, 2012
8:20 am

Don’t worry, Romney by a landslide.

Jay

October 19th, 2012
8:22 am

Silver hasn’t just changed his numbers several times in the past few weeks, Huh, he changes them daily.

That’s what he’s supposed to do. As the polling numbers change — the input for much of his model — his predictions change. This is what is called a good thing; as reality changes, you change your prediction to account for that changed reality.

Steve

October 19th, 2012
8:22 am

I can’t wait for you mindless cons to eat humble pie when Obama wins, and he will. You people live in la-la land.

Uneducated, uninformed, vote against my best interest, Howdy Doody

October 19th, 2012
8:22 am

Im so mad at Hunny Boo Boo for indorsin Obama. I feel skeerd that she will turn Georgea into a Dimacratic state. Go Linzey Lohand!

HUH?????

October 19th, 2012
8:22 am

“Silver hasn’t just changed his numbers several times in the past few weeks, Huh, he changes them daily.”

No kidding, Jay. That’s exactly what I said. Are you my parrot now?

Bill Orvis White

October 19th, 2012
8:22 am

I’m now more serious than ever. This is no joke. With Virginia, Florida, Colorado and now Ohio leaning ever more to the right, this election will end roughly early on November 7. I even think that the lamestream libtard media will swallow the bitter pill first and declare that the next president of The United States of America will be the honorable Willard “Mitt”Romney. I bet the libtards are crying right now putting that picture of Governor Romney as the Winner. LOL! This is going to be fun watching most of America as well as your pal Chris Matthews turn beat red. I cannot wait see all of this go down. By the way, Governor Romney is going to seriously crush this president on Monday night because He will stop down liberal sympathizer Bob Schieffer.
Amen,
Bill

The other half of your brain.

October 19th, 2012
8:23 am

I find it amazing that libs are still crying about Gore and the hanging chads. Get over it, they were counted twice by independent groups and he still came up short.

Steve

October 19th, 2012
8:23 am

GT

October 19th, 2012
8:23 am

How do they find the statistical universe in this world of cell phones and unanswered calls? The polling has changed dramatically in the last 20 years, and some firms keep up with it better than others. What is the purpose of so many firms? Seems it would be like network television there would only be so much market to support so much polling unless you are looking for an edge, like Fox News has introduced to us. It is like a defense attorney dragging in an alcoholic doctor to testify to the jury, “10 bullets holes could have been done by accident and doesn’t necessarily cause death.”

We want to hear we are right. The modern world has allowed this, we pamper groups, like spoiled children, never letting the light of reality into their thinking. Not the original purpose of the press or polls. It is like getting a face lift looking 30 years younger and being shocked when it doesn’t stop you from dying of old age.

jconservative

October 19th, 2012
8:23 am

Exit polls in Iowa give Obama a 2 to 1 margin in early voting.

Jay

October 19th, 2012
8:24 am

I see why you call yourself “Huh?”

Answer man.

October 19th, 2012
8:25 am

Yes, Ken, Romey by a landslide…in GA, AL, SC, MS, LA, TX, TN, KY. You know, the Einstein states.

HUH?????

October 19th, 2012
8:25 am

As I was watching Morning Joe, they were talking about all the polls that are out now. The most interesting thing to watch was how they were only showing polls that had Obama leading in Wis, Iowa and NV. On top of that, they never even mentioned the momentum that Romney has gotten since the first debate.

It’s going to be fun watching another Chris Matthews meltdown on election night.

Can anyone on the left please explain how Obama will fix the economy? He hasn’t even mentioned what his plan is for a second term.

RomneyBacker

October 19th, 2012
8:26 am

Sounds like a story written by the Obama Campaign, trying to convince themselves — and us. It ain’t working.

indigo

October 19th, 2012
8:26 am

1. While the Electoral College may have been a good thing at one time, is is definitely NOT a good thing now. In every other political contest in America, whoever gets the most votes wins. I’m at a loss as to why the Electoral College wasn’t done away with long ago.

2. Obama and Romney clearly have very different visions of what America should be. That the race is this close shows America is deeply divided. Lincoln said a house divided against itself cannot stand.

3. If Lincoln was right, how much longer will we stand? The Bush-Gore vote count was almost exactly even. Now, a mere 12 years later, we have another almost even race. History teaches this kind of division almost always produces a great deal of trouble for the Country or Empire.

Steve

October 19th, 2012
8:26 am

Let’s face it – conservatives aren’t motivated by the flip flopping Mormon. Since he’s not consistent with his views (is he a conservative or a liberal Republican? Which is it?), he’s not convinced enough people that he’s a true conservative. We all know where Obama stands and changing the course now makes people uncomfortable. That, and the Hispanic/women vote (binders of women? what??), we have this election (Obama). Deal with it and maybe a sane GOP candidate will show up for 2016.

The other half of your brain.

October 19th, 2012
8:26 am

Answer man.

October 19th, 2012
8:25 am

Yes, Ken, Romey by a landslide…in GA, AL, SC, MS, LA, TX, TN, KY. You know, the Einstein states.

And you live where? hahahahahahahaha

HUH?????

October 19th, 2012
8:27 am

“I see why you call yourself “Huh?””

That’s nice, Jay. Continue to deflect since you can’t debate.

HUH?????

October 19th, 2012
8:27 am

“Exit polls in Iowa give Obama a 2 to 1 margin in early voting.”

Exit polls had Kerry winning in 2004.

Progress

October 19th, 2012
8:28 am

While the popular winner takes the election the vast majority of the time, in reality the popular vote has no relevance. Instead of a national election, we hold 51 separate state elections (w/ DC included). The electoral college still looks like too much of a mountain to climb for Romney. 34% of Iowans have already voted early and by a two-to-one margin (66% of them) they have cast ballots for Obama. Wisconsin is unlikely to swing for Romney. If Obama wins those two states plus Ohio, which looks likely at this point, then he wins the election. Done. Romney could still take Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado and he’d still lose (and it’s pretty unlikely he wins all of those). The aggregate of state polling is a much stronger indicator of the outcome than national polls, and state polling right now suggests Obama will have four more years.

Steve

October 19th, 2012
8:28 am

GA, AL, SC, MS, LA, TX, TN, KY. : the red states that the blue states are supporting via federal aid.

Steve

October 19th, 2012
8:30 am

Very telling that Ryan and Romney’s states are going clearly for Obama…

stands for decibels

October 19th, 2012
8:30 am

Nate Silver? HAHA!!!!! He’s changed his numbers several times over the last few weeks

I’m just going to bask in this stupidity for a while.

HUH?????

October 19th, 2012
8:31 am

Remember Bookman, no one has ever won the presidency without polling over 50%. Right now Romney is at 52%- Obama at 45%.

Good luck with that.

HUH?????

October 19th, 2012
8:33 am

Obama spinning toward a loss

President Obama is losing. So says the latest Gallup poll, and so do those swelling numbers in key states like Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia and Ohio.

Democrats say wait, he won the second debate. They are holding their breath, hoping polls next week will show that this week’s debate brought the herky-jerk of the campaign back full swing, with Obama back to his September lead in the swing states and poised to win. But with two weeks to go, a sudden surge in voter support for a president as unpopular as this one, in an economy this weak, is simply hard to believe. Conservatives like Karl Rove note that this late in October, no candidate with support higher than 50 percent (see Mitt Romney: Gallup) has ever gone on to lose.

http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/ab-stoddard/262925-obama-spinning-toward-a-loss

Georgia

October 19th, 2012
8:33 am

In the 2000 election, In Florida, many voters were turned away if their name was similar to names on a list of convicted felons.

Steve-USA

October 19th, 2012
8:34 am

I was going to say “Please no hanging chads” but I am not sure anyone use those machines anymore so I will say “Please no hanging computer chips”.

Thomas Heyward Jr

October 19th, 2012
8:35 am

Calm down everyone.
.
Whichever bank-owned clown is elected will only affect you to the extent that you let it.

.
It’s never too late to join the RP revolution, ignore your perceived masters and…………give a peaceful, non-coercional, and non-interventionist society/agenda/existance a chance.
.
Let the dwindling partisons fight it out.
( although for self defense purposes, it might be good to stock up on lead-n-brass).

Progress

October 19th, 2012
8:36 am

@ Huh @ 8:31- So Bill Clinton polled over 50% in the three way race between him, Bush, and Perot? Or did he never become president? Where are you getting your (non)information from?

yuzeyurbrane

October 19th, 2012
8:36 am

Gallup usually has a good explanation when they are off.

HUH?????

October 19th, 2012
8:36 am

Fidel Castro had a stroke. I wonder if it was caused by the upcoming Obama loss or perhaps he knows Cuba will one day be free from communism? Either way, Obama will most likely call his dear friend up and offer support.

Steve-USA

October 19th, 2012
8:36 am

Nate Silver? HAHA!!!!! He’s changed his numbers several times over the last few weeks

I’m just going to bask in this stupidity for a while.
_____________________________________________

I have the same problem with the weatherman, every day he says something different. ;)

southpaw

October 19th, 2012
8:36 am

Yes, Ken, Romey by a landslide…in GA, AL, SC, MS, LA, TX, TN, KY. You know, the Einstein states.

So Romney will carry Württemberg, too? I know that isn’t 1 of the 50 states, but is it one of the 57?

bookman parrot

October 19th, 2012
8:36 am

Jay “falseness”
So you want BHO to finish the “job”. So $8.00 gas? $5.00 loaf of bread? US becoming weak in economy and military? More apology tours? More unwanted, yet forced government interference? FORWARD … to becoming a poverty nation ? A $30 trillion deficit ? BHO on to victory … er .. i mean US on to defeat and disgust and disgrace. That is what a BHO win will do.

DwayneL

October 19th, 2012
8:37 am

The worst possible thing for this country would be for obama to be re-elected and that’s become much less likely over the last few weeks. Thank God and God Bless America and Mitt Romney!

HUH?????

October 19th, 2012
8:37 am

“So Bill Clinton polled over 50% in the three way race between him, Bush, and Perot? ”

Bill Clinton polled better than Bush in the 92 election which is why he won. Clinton polled over 50% in 96 when he beat Dole.

Make sense?

Welcome to the Occupation

October 19th, 2012
8:38 am

Jay, why the dour tones and hand-wringing about this split? If the American people are as faithful of the wisdom of their great and wise constitutional system as you are, they should accept it freely, shouldn’t they?

CallMeBC

October 19th, 2012
8:38 am

This is how all major elections in this country will be for the foreseeable future. With authoritative journalistic news sources dwindling in number and resources, and competing with ever growing numbers of pseudo-news outlets of wildly variable quality, as well as relentless, big money ad campaigns taking advantage of the Supreme Court’s eye-rollingly dopey Citizens United decision in 2010, the average American gets so much infonoise that all the real differences in policy, ideas, history and history between candidates all blur together or cancel each other out. The end result is a lot of voters so confused and misinformed that they might as well be flipping coin to make their decisions, and that is why election results are more regularly close to or within the margin of error of vote counting. All those “America has spoken” platitudes that follow a big election rings more and more hollow every year.

Atlas Shrugging

October 19th, 2012
8:39 am

The worst possible outcome was created when you DEM-wits and REP-ugnants offered up Obozo and Ditsy as presdential candidates! Really!!! That the best you could do????

Jhunt163

October 19th, 2012
8:39 am

Real Clear Politics using poll averages shows Romney taking Electoral vote lead. Gallup is a big component of the uptick, but Rasmussen was the clear winner in the last two elections and they have been trending higher for Romney as well.

Patty

October 19th, 2012
8:41 am

How was it when Obama was leading in all the polls, you libs were talking up Gallop and everyone else but now that things are different, you’re dragging some pollster out from under the nearest rock? If you want a reality check, here you go:

http://www.examiner.com/article/daily-presidential-tracking-poll-october-18-2012

Normal Free...Pro Human Rights Thug...And liking it!

October 19th, 2012
8:42 am

That Bill Orvis White! GAWD, how I love his satire!! :lol:

RW-(the original)

October 19th, 2012
8:44 am

…with what we had to tolerate in 2000 and 2004, but also to get an adult conversation going about our archaic Electoral College system…

stands,

You’re kind of trying to have it both ways there. The only thing that made 2004 close at all was the Electoral College and those of us on the right had to watch you guys pivot on a dime after four years of claiming the popular vote was what mattered to having you tell us a few “questionable” votes in Ohio cost you the Presidency even though the popular vote would have gone to the other side by a considerable amout.

Simple Truths

October 19th, 2012
8:45 am

Regardless of the outcome, I support the Electoral College. We are a union of states. The Electoral College aligns with that.

Georgia

October 19th, 2012
8:45 am

What will be the format of the third debate? Who will moderate? Will Romney go for the knockout punch of what did Hillary know and when did she know it? Will the debate dissolve into the second’s elementary school shout off of “Is too.” “Is not” “IS TOO” “IS NOT”

TOO. NOT. TOO. NOT.

godless heathen

October 19th, 2012
8:46 am

All these predictions ! This AM I saw a prediction for this winter’s temperatures in the USA. Over most of the country, NOAA gave an equal chance that temps would be either above normal, normal, or below normal. Now that’s going out on a limb!

Cosby

October 19th, 2012
8:46 am

Polls Polls and more Polls give the media something to talk about..but then voter fraud is abundent – see Pennsylvania with no ID requeired..load up the busses and lets go to all the voting places…lets decimate the Military vote….but yet should it matter…no…because you and I really do not have a vote…The constitution does not say the Electorial College follows the vote…they can vote for anyone they want and not particularly the candidate from either party. Our founding fathers knew the general population did not have the time nor the education to pick the leader of the USA..and history has proven them right..just look at what we have now! Proof enough!!!!!!!!

b-troll

October 19th, 2012
8:47 am

a few weeks ago Jay makes fun of poll skeptics

now Jay is a poll skeptic

too funny.

have a good friday everyone

Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...

October 19th, 2012
8:47 am

JAY

The two most accurate polls (both were spot on) in 2008 were Rasmussen and Pew..both showing Romney gaining ground and now slightly ahead in both…need to wait and see about next Pew poll as the one that had Romney up by 4% after first debate….need to see what new numbers are…Rasmussen has Romney up by 2% as of 10/18

Georgia

October 19th, 2012
8:50 am

Love the way Ross Perot piled on this week and endorsed Romney. We can’t afford four more years,. he said.

Keep Up the Good Fight!

October 19th, 2012
8:50 am

No matter what the outcome, there are going to be long term conerns with the type of voter suppression and voter fraud being committed by Republicans.

josef

October 19th, 2012
8:51 am

And a cheery good a.m. to the day crew…a little bit of time here before it’s off to the poke and prod available to those of us with good insurance…

On topic:
The Romany Lady says, “which is why I ain’t been and ain’t gonna lay odds on this one. Best put your money on Sunshine’s Baby Boy in the third…”

Southpaw…

Einstein states…is that the best you can come up with? You do realize, I hope, that thinking Southerners automatically evacuate their nostrils in the general direction of your auntie…

Georgia on my mind...

October 19th, 2012
8:51 am

History 101
Some may recall how Savannah was given to President Lincoln as a Christmas gift; well Georgia will be given to President Obama on November 6 as an early Christmas present in 2012…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kH_EZF0XqM&ob=av2e

Donovan

October 19th, 2012
8:52 am

“This is what is called a good thing; as reality changes, you change your prediction to account for that changed reality”. Practice what you preach.

Based on the polls and at this time in the campaign, the reality of the situation dictates your prognostication that Romney will win.

Say it, Jay Bookman.

HUH?????

October 19th, 2012
8:57 am

“there are going to be long term conerns with the type of voter suppression and voter fraud being committed by Republicans.”

Blame, blame, blame. It’s always someone else’s fault when Dems lose.

Stevie Ray..Clowns to the left and Jokers to the right..here I am...

October 19th, 2012
8:57 am

KEEP.

How much do you think the suppressed voters (this clearly is an issue that doesnt’ bode well for your team) will impact election? I can find nothing on net providing estimates? If it is thought to be material and Romney wins by small margin, I’m sure it will be contested…

jconservative

October 19th, 2012
8:59 am

“Exit polls in Iowa give Obama a 2 to 1 margin in early voting.”

“Exit polls had Kerry winning in 2004.”

The point is on early voting exit polls of which there were none in 2004.

Jack In Cumming

October 19th, 2012
8:59 am

7 point lead in Gallup and people think this election is going to be close???

Pass the Cheesy Grits Please

October 19th, 2012
8:59 am

Can you imagine if Obama had a black son and he had said something like this ?

Tagg Romney was asked how it felt when he heard “the president of the United States call your dad a liar.”

“Jump out of your seat and you want to rush down to the stage and take a swing at him,” Tagg answered

The outrage from the right would have been enormous.

Kyle, Fox News, Drudge. This would have been a huge story.

But because its the other way around its really not a big deal.

Very interesting isn’t it.

Steve-USA

October 19th, 2012
9:01 am

“Very interesting isn’t it.”

Not really.

Thomas

October 19th, 2012
9:02 am

Silver is simply a poll aggregator that looks at each pollers past history to calculate a consensus- kind of a macro approach to polling. Good work if you can get it.

The odds of Obama re-elected are 100 or 0%- same for Romney. Take it to the bank.

josef

October 19th, 2012
9:04 am

CHEESY

So, what does a “black” son have to do with the price of eggs? You’re gratuitously feeding into the racial polarization that has plagued our society for way too long…you could have made the same point without melanin content…

LeeH1

October 19th, 2012
9:04 am

I used to be against the electoral college as well. However, I realize that to win in the US, a presidential candidate has to win over the entire country. If it was only up to the popular votes, if the candidate just won New York Florida nad California, he would win it all. Now he has to win in over half the states. This helps drive out bargains with bigger tates that screw the smaller ones.

And when he wins, he wins the majority of the whole country. Then he can truely represent the US.

Keep Up the Good Fight!

October 19th, 2012
9:05 am

Stevie, possibly thousands of voters have or will be suppressed. And who knows what voter registration fraud has been committed by the group hired by the RNC. Given the Republican efforts, it must be sufficient in their minds to change outcomes.

pete

October 19th, 2012
9:05 am

If Obama wins, then he remains the president. If Romney wins, there will be screams of voter fraud and suppression, riots, and calls for recounts. The dems are already planting their seeds.

southpaw

October 19th, 2012
9:05 am

Sorry, Josef. I didn’t come up with “Einstein states.” Credit for that goes to “The other half of your brain” @8:26. I’m known among friends and family for corny wisecracks, but I never would have thought of that.