Obama supporters buoyed by last night’s debate performance just got a glass of cold water in the face in the form of the latest Gallup numbers among likely voters:
Romney: 51 percent
Obama: 45 percent
That’s a considerably better number for Romney than reported by the Rasmussen tracking poll, which puts the race at Romney 49, Obama 48, well within the margin of error. Other national polls also report a tight race, with advantages for either candidate of two or three points at best.
Obama continues to hold an advantage in state-by-state polling, giving him a lead in the all-important electoral college. That explains in part why Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight continues to give him a 64.8 percent change of winning re-election. However, that advantage continues to erode as well.
The effects, if any, of last night’s showing haven’t manifested themselves yet, and won’t until the end of the week at the earliest. The final debate is Monday.
But with Election Day only three weeks from yesterday, it is anybody’s race.
– Jay Bookman