Do debates and analysis alter viewpoint? Research says yes
In 2004, political science researchers at Arizona State University assembled three groups of people. One group watched that year’s third presidential debate between John Kerry and George W. Bush. A second group watched the debate plus 20 minutes of analysis on NBC. The third group watched the debate and were then given 20 minutes of access to written “instant analysis” posted on CNN.com.
Then they were asked the same obvious question: Who won? The results, via a graph by Kevin Drum, in turn borrowed from John Sides:
Those who watched the NBC analysis, which in the researchers’ opinion had been more favorable to Bush, were more than twice as likely to say that Bush had won compared to those who watched the debate without exposure to outside analysis. The contrast with those who read CNN’s analysis — judged more favorable to Kerry by researchers — was even more stark. Only 19 percent in that group felt that Bush had won, although overall, those who had read CNN coverage were most likely to say that neither man had won.
Researchers also took a look at whether partisan differences played any role. Democrats, they found, were much more open to changing their minds about the candidates based on what they had seen in the debates and subsequent analysis, while Republicans showed no such willingness to alter their perspective.
“In this case, Republicans are much less willing to be swayed by political information, compared with Democrats. Why are Republicans less receptive to the debate messages? It may be Republicans had more stable and strongly held attitudes about their nominee for the simple reason that their nominee was the incumbent president. Or, it may be the case that Republicans were less receptive to media messages because they are more suspicious of the “liberal bias” of the press. Or, maybe Democrats held ambivalent feelings about Senator Kerry because they had less information about him, making their attitudes about Senator Kerry more responsive to external stimuli. Whatever the mechanism, these results suggest that people’s party affiliation clearly affected their reaction to the messages emanating from the debate and subsequent news coverage.”
Keep all that in mind tonight, when we’ll be live-blogging the debate right here. I’ll put a debate post up around 8 p.m., with the debate scheduled to begin at 9 p.m. All major networks will provide coverage, and Jim Lehrer of PBS’ NewsHour will moderate.
– Jay Bookman
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466 comments Add your comment
JamVet
October 3rd, 2012
7:11 pm
Is it just me or is the fastest man on earth, Paul Ryan been strangely absent from the national scene lately?
I guess one Gaffe a Minute condidate is enough for now.
Obama/Biden 2012
October 3rd, 2012
7:12 pm
Memory Lane…2008
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv1xDg-zngg
Jay
October 3rd, 2012
7:13 pm
Yes, b-man, clean debate sheets will post around 8. If things work as planned, we’ll be able to watch the debate live on the blog.
They BOTH suck
October 3rd, 2012
7:15 pm
Communist Kenyan vs Thurston Howell
Be there or be square
F. Sinkwich
October 3rd, 2012
7:16 pm
“Except for Obama being a communist Muslim who was born in Kenya and went to school as a foreign student how much are we going to learn tonight?”
He hates him some whitey?
Jay
October 3rd, 2012
7:17 pm
However, I confess I’ll have one eye on the Red Sox/Yankees game. BoSox suck this year, but maybe they can keep the Yanks from clinching the division, which would be something.
bman
October 3rd, 2012
7:18 pm
lol Fred & Getalife
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
October 3rd, 2012
7:18 pm
He does engage charming young men at the gas pumps in conversation.
Well, only for tips on the stock market and oil prices. You make it sound like Sinkus is crazy or a weirdo or something.
josef
October 3rd, 2012
7:19 pm
IMAM
What’s that about the best laid plans of mice and men…
They BOTH suck
October 3rd, 2012
7:19 pm
Jay
Maybe it will be a Joe Morgan playing for the Giants walk off to kill the Dodgers dreams back in the day………….
Not a Red Sox fan, but anyone who beats the Yankees has my vote
They BOTH suck
October 3rd, 2012
7:20 pm
Sink
I though we already knew about “him hating whitey”………
You have only told us 1 million times
That Black Guy
October 3rd, 2012
7:21 pm
Heading home. Check in when I have a glass of Flor De Cana in hand.
With this “debate” I’m gonna need it.
Common Sense isn't very Common
October 3rd, 2012
7:21 pm
josef
What’s that about the best laid plans of mice and men
——————————————————————————
I always thought that was the best laid men and plans of mice. LOL
josef
October 3rd, 2012
7:24 pm
Common Sense
Brosephus™
October 3rd, 2012
7:26 pm
Brocephus, 6:06,
I respect your opinion as well, but what are we supposed to do?…. just ignore it?
Did I ask you to ignore it? No, I did not. All I ask is that you leave the politics out of it. Do you know exactly what happened? Do you know exactly what caused it? If so, why not tell our investigators the entire story and save us a few tax dollars.
It pisses me off to high hell each and every time any of y’all so-called conservatives decides to whip BPA Terry’s name around for the sake of beating the political drums, so I am just simply asking for you to stop doing that.
If you want to bring attention to what’s going on along the Southern Border, why not also bring some solutions instead of just using somebody’s death to blame Obama?
http://www.azcentral.com/news/20121002border-agents-slain-since-2006-names.html?sf6391038=1
Since 2006, 20 U.S. Border Patrol agents have died in the line of duty, including eight from Arizona. Three of the eight Arizona agents were slain, with two being shot and another intentionally struck with a vehicle by a suspected smuggler who was trying to flee, according to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
Nine Agents have died in the line of duty since Obama took office. Agent Ivie was the 5th since Terry died. Where’s your concern for the other four, or is your concern only relevent when it’s political expedient for you to push your rhetoric? This is the 3rd time this year we’ve placed mourning bands on our badges, and for me, that’s 3 times too many.
Were you aware that most of those guys are out patroling in teams of two? If you want to beat a political drum, why not bang the drums about getting more Agents on the border instead of worrying about Obama? Why not beat the drum of getting those guys and girls better armed and better equipped?
TaxPayer
October 3rd, 2012
7:30 pm
I think Jay should just slip up and stream the game to the blog. After all, Obama’s gonna win so why subject the Republicans to any more torture than absolutely necessary… ok, I convinced myself that it’s better to show the debate.
josef
October 3rd, 2012
7:32 pm
Just the grammarian in me, but I suspect we’ll have a “debate” between the present perfect “I have…” and the present progressive of to go replacing the simple future “I’m going to…”
Fred ™
October 3rd, 2012
7:33 pm
My Brother Brocephus: For your fallen brothers. A toast: to absent companions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9E7L_gYbWI
Brosephus™
October 3rd, 2012
7:34 pm
Doom: He has as much right to bring up the death of a border patrol agent as liberals did bringing up the deaths of U.S. serviceman in Iraq when we went to war there.
Care to point where I asked him not to bring it up??? I did no such thing. I simply asked that he not make it some political talking point. As I recall, when those liberals did as you said, they were damn near accused of everything to the point of treason. I recall people being called unAmerican and everything else.
Seems that, if Conservatives were that protective of the military, they wouldn’t turn around and sh*t on Border Patrol Agents who risk their lives every day to protect your and my ass. You said earlier that Conservatives were generally more knowledgable, right? Why not show some of that knowledge and not do the same damn thing you castigated somebody else for doing less than 10 years ago? Is that not too much to ask? Damn, somebody’s gotta be the grown up.
And you couldn’t be more wrong in him or anyone else wanting to know why we are not securing the border or protecting our agents. Or wanting to know why agent Terry was murdered 2 years ago by guns that the Obama administration was selling to Mexican criminal drug gangs. The worst and last thing we should do is be silent in the wake of our people getting killed on the border.
No, the worst thing we should be doing is passing off lies as though they are the truth. Those guns that were involved with the death of Agent Terry were sold three days before ATF got their serial numbers from the paperwork from the dealer. So, how in the hell does that equate to Obama giving guns to Mexican cartels?
As I told kayaker, if you want to make political hay, then make it about the working conditions of those guys. WHy are they patrolling in teams of 2? Do you know how long the border is? Why don’t we have enough agents to secure the border instead of trying to plug a leaking dam with our fingers?
I have no problem with people wondering why the border is not secure. Starting off with false assumptions and outright lies will not aid your case. Why not go and actually read the truth instead of what you hear from the echo chamber, or is it just much easier to believe what you want to believe in order to simply validate YOUR opinions?
Brosephus™
October 3rd, 2012
7:37 pm
Hey, when do I get all that free shyte and Whole Foods card?
First, you gotta steal a few flat screens and transport them on MARTA. Then, you gotta knock up a few hoodrats that drive Cadillacs and live in the projects. Once you disown your kids, then you get that free shyte!!!
Thanks for the tip on the iPad. That might be a money saver in the long run.
Jm
October 3rd, 2012
7:39 pm
Ooo. High tech blog. Live broadcast sur blog.
Of course, most will also have teevee
gm
October 3rd, 2012
7:42 pm
F. Sinkwich
He hates him some whitey
I guess thats why 75% of the people that were saved in auto bailout were white, but what do you expect when you get your information from ex druger, high school drop out Rush scum Limbaugh and 3 time high school drop out Sean Hannity who is jealous of the President.
I
barking frog
October 3rd, 2012
7:42 pm
jm
you should watch tv.
Fred ™
October 3rd, 2012
7:43 pm
Penn State AND the Red Sox? Just damn……… I think i would have killed myself by now if that was my fate………..
barking frog
October 3rd, 2012
7:43 pm
Enter your comments here
Brosephus™
October 3rd, 2012
7:44 pm
Fred
Thanks. When we got the news yesterday morning, I couldn’t help but pull up photos of Terry’s partner, supervisor, and the other officers who accompanied him on his final trip home. Talking to the other agent who was actually there made it much more personal for me, and I’ll be damned if I allow him to become some political whipping post. I would think my colleagues would do as much for me if it were me that was killed in the line of duty.
Fred ™
October 3rd, 2012
7:45 pm
Well at least Jay you aren’t an Ohio State Butteye and Yankees fan……….
Jay
October 3rd, 2012
7:45 pm
I won’t say my thoughts have gone THAT far, Fred.
But yes, you have a point.
JamVet
October 3rd, 2012
7:47 pm
The Grandy Man goes yard. Yanks 3 – 1…
Jm
October 3rd, 2012
7:47 pm
Frog
Both
Fred ™
October 3rd, 2012
7:48 pm
I dunno Jay. I’m a dawg and brave fan. We seem to screw everything up as well………
Elmer Fudd's son
October 3rd, 2012
7:49 pm
Has Mitt had a botox injection? Will he be orange? Inquiring minds want to know.
Fred ™
October 3rd, 2012
7:49 pm
I guess USinUK just did a driveby.
Jay
October 3rd, 2012
7:50 pm
There’s screwing up, Fred. And then there’s Penn State.
Jay
October 3rd, 2012
7:51 pm
I guess USinUK just did a driveby.
Isn’t it like one in the morning there?
gm
October 3rd, 2012
7:51 pm
Amazing how right wing nut who go around faking to be Americans support a guy who was involved sending American jobs overseas, the people in Oh,Mich get it, the southern conservatives white males will never get it because they have long traditional of being hypocrites.
Hating Obama is more important then having Pride when comes to American jobs and they wonder why the Stereotype of the south continues, wow
Lord Help Us
October 3rd, 2012
7:52 pm
Mitt having dinner at the Cheesecake Factory…that’s a hoot…
Elmer Fudd's son
October 3rd, 2012
7:53 pm
Will “Zingers” be served? Unfortunately I only have “Tasty Cakes”.
JamVet
October 3rd, 2012
7:54 pm
Sure Elmer Fudd could beat Barry but the cons are running Willard Dudd…
Jm
October 3rd, 2012
7:55 pm
Lord
He owns it.
barking frog
October 3rd, 2012
7:55 pm
Fred™
USinUK was up for a west
coast conference call.
may be talking. may be in
bed.
getalife
October 3rd, 2012
7:56 pm
He will help the middle class:
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/799378/original.jpg
In the Left corner - President Obama
October 3rd, 2012
7:56 pm
QUESTION:
Mr. President – What the fluck is the Libya attack thing all about?
ANSWER:
“It’s George Bush’s fault.”
QUESTION:
What about the weapons that killed or wounded all those teenagers in Mexico? Univision claims they were Fast N Furious guns. Were they?
ANSWER:
“George Bush started this and is to blame… Not me ! ”
Romney understands Sun Tzu.
Obama thinks he’s Louie the XVI protected by Hollywood Jedis + an obedient percentage.
Ciao
JamVet
October 3rd, 2012
7:59 pm
Cano can.
5 – 1 lead for the Bronx Bombers…
TaxPayer
October 3rd, 2012
8:00 pm
No one twisted Bush’s arm and made him screw up everything. Except maybe Dick. Dick’s do that sort of thing.
Fred ™
October 3rd, 2012
8:00 pm
Jay: Yeah, it’s almost 1. But I thought maybe she put her big girl jammies on tonight and was staying up for the debate. She posted an hour or so ago so I assumed…………… well we all know about assuming lol.
Speaking of doing a drive-by. My wife actually wants to watch the debate tonight (on the big screen) so I’m not going to get to blog with you. I’m kinda of bummed while ya’ll are really relieved lol.
She has so much work and so little time that the fact she wants to spend some on politics rather than reading for her PhD class makes me proud of her. I KNEW I could finally educate that woman……..
barking frog
October 3rd, 2012
8:02 pm
Taxpayer
A Dick will shoot you in the
face.
Don't Tread
October 3rd, 2012
8:02 pm
Do billboards alter buying decisions?
Not mine. Marketing is just a fancy word for lying.
Fred ™
October 3rd, 2012
8:05 pm
barking frog: Thanks for the info. I skipped a few pages tonight. Like I said in the earlier post, I figured she was up to see the debate. I mean I’ve done crazier stuff.
I mean there was that one time in Mexico after I drank a gallon of Tequila where that cute goat kept coming on to me and………… well never mind. You don”t need to know about that……..
Josef
October 3rd, 2012
8:05 pm
Well, this is a helluva way to spend your 20th anniversary…
Jay
October 3rd, 2012
8:06 pm
OK, debate sheets ready.
Fred ™
October 3rd, 2012
8:06 pm
barking frog (again lol)@ 8:02: Yeah but if I was a lawyer I would HOPE someone would shoot me in the face…………..
Elmer Fudd's son
October 3rd, 2012
8:06 pm
I’m huntin’ wabbits just like my dad.
MORE PRESSURE ON WOMBNEY!
Donovan
October 3rd, 2012
8:08 pm
Gosh, Jay…what with all the polls, the Bookman graphs, and the what you just showed us, Romney just doesn’t have a chance. It just seems that the Democrat debater always puts up the favorite numbers. I’m so discouraged, Jay.
Is that the idea, Jay? Is that the game plan, Jay? Of course it is. Don’t insult our intelligence.
You people are reprehensible. No matter how Romney crushes the Obaminator tonight he will be perceived tomorrow by your myrmidons (a nicer word than stooge) as the loser.
See you tomorrow for another jab at your spin.
barking frog
October 3rd, 2012
8:09 pm
Fred™
Thanks for concealing that.
F. Sinkwich
October 3rd, 2012
8:09 pm
“I guess thats why 75% of the people that were saved in auto bailout were white,”
But 100% union thugs. Campaign dollars trump race sometimes.
JamVet
October 3rd, 2012
8:12 pm
Don’t insult our intelligence.
You and the voices in your head?
LOL!
Tall
October 3rd, 2012
8:17 pm
….”Or, it may be the case that Republicans were less receptive to media messages because they are more suspicious of the “liberal bias” of the press…
A rare true statement. If Obama says he has a tee time, wants to raise taxes or is going on vacation….I believe him. Other than that……nope.
Romney/Ryan will win.
Tall
October 3rd, 2012
8:20 pm
JamVet:
In case you missed my closing statement last night: ” The currency and interest rate markets are cruel masters…” As you shall see.
Tall
October 3rd, 2012
8:21 pm
Enjoy the debates folks…..
G Mare
October 3rd, 2012
8:42 pm
Bro, I missed whoever’s comment re the iPad, but I LOVE mine!
Vast Right Wing Conspiracy (aka "Knuckle-Dragger")
October 3rd, 2012
8:42 pm
If you are listening to the state-controlled media for analysis, you are a moron. They have had their comments ready for weeks.
ODD OWL
October 3rd, 2012
10:06 pm
Gov. Mittens Romney is on all both sides of all issues in this debate… He has flip flopped, he’ has used the etch-A sketch.. Now Romney is shape shifting… Romney is all over the place.. President Obama is exposing all of Romney’s weak spots and shortcomings…
ODD OWL
October 3rd, 2012
10:17 pm
Gov. Romney said that he would create conditions for economic growth by providing incentives to businesses… Isn’t that the same as saying tax cuts for the rich, tax cuts for businesses and tax cuts for the corporate elite… Romneyhood !!!
ODD OWL
October 3rd, 2012
10:27 pm
President Barack Obama won the first debate, hands down… Romney was no contest…
ODD OWL
October 3rd, 2012
10:55 pm
Tax cuts for the wealthy creates deficits and debt…