I don’t know who will win the presidency come Nov. 6. I do know, however, that at this point, based on polling, Barack Obama remains the clear favorite to win an electoral-college majority.
I understand that’s a controversial statement among some. Sites such as Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com have become targets of sustained attacks and critiques by supporters of Mitt Romney for making similar statements. But it’s nonetheless true.
To document that claim, let’s take a look at the race using a data source that ought to sidestep all conservative claims of “skewed polling” and “media bias,” etc. Let’s examine it using numbers generated solely by Rasmussen, using definitions of “leaning” and “tossup” states as applied by Rasmussen. And before we do, let’s take a moment to establish just how Republican-leaning the Rasmussen numbers really are by looking at state polling data.
Colorado: Rasmussen has Romney up by four points, which is a fairly large margin. Yet of the 10 polls