On election night, a reality check looms for someone
The multiplicity of modern media has made it possible to create worlds within worlds, realities within realities. You can, for example, choose a reality in which Barack Obama is up by 3.5 percentage points, with an 80 percent chance of being re-elected, or you can choose to live in a competing reality in which “unskewed” polling reports the happy news that Mitt Romney is actually up almost eight points in national polls.
However, a time will always arrive when your created reality must be “trued up” against actual reality. You can delay that moment, you can dodge that moment, but eventually it must come. Media technology, with all of its magic, has not yet created a work-around to that harsh exercise.
In the runup to the Iraq War, for example, the Bush administration created a reality in which Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, American forces would be greeted as liberators, ethnic differences in Iraq were of little consequence and the invasion would more or less pay for itself. Actual reality proved to be quite a bit different, but it took several agonizing years for our leaders to admit just how delusional their created reality had been, and to realign their policies accordingly.
Election days also have a way of realigning created realities to actual reality. On the evening of Nov. 6, we will not only have an answer to whether the polls or the “unskewed polls” had proved more accurate, we will learn a lot more about the American people as well. Each political party entered this campaign season confident that it had the backing of the majority of Americans; each believed that its message was more true to American values and more responsive to America’s needs.
The election is going to tell us which reality was correct, and which is in need of alteration.
In my own personal created reality — and given human limitations and our imperfect understanding of the world, we all live in created realities of varying accuracies — Barack Obama should and probably will be re-elected. In my reality, those conservatives who have been pouring into movie theaters to see “2016: Obama’s America” may have to come to grips on Election Night with the fact that a majority of their fellow Americans simply do not see the world as they do, that in fact they, not the president and his supporters, are the minority that is out of touch with the American mainstream.
I understand that would not be easy to accept, and that most will employ any means available to avoid doing so. The process is already underway and is easily observable. For example, the claim that current polls are biased against conservatives is at root a defense mechanism that allows them to deny in public, and for a while, an outcome that many of them in private now fear to be looming.
And should that argument fail, fear not, because this is a defense in layers. Conservatives are already preparing a fallback defense blaming their loss on the media. Beyond that they have prepared a defense in which they blame it on Mitt Romney, and beyond that on the Republican establishment that forced the selection of Romney on a party base that knew better.
All of those layers of psychic defense are designed to defend the inner sanctum, the holy of holies. Whatever happens, blame must not be allowed to fall on the conservative message. Blame it on those selected to spread the message, blame it on those who distorted the message, blame it on those too stupid to appreciate the message, but whatever happens, do not blame it on the message.
Because if the message is wrong, it forces a readjustment to reality that is too painful to be considered.
Read, for example, Erick Erickson, the CNN analyst and Redstate.com founder:
“There are a lot of elitist Republicans who have spent several years telling us Mitt Romney was the only electable Republican. Because the opinion makers and news media these elitists hang out with have concluded Romney will not win, the elitists are in full on panic mode. They conspired to shut out others, tear down others, and prop up Romney with the electability argument. He is now not winning against the second coming of Jimmy Carter. They know there will be many conservatives, should Mitt Romney lose, who will not be satisfied until every bridge is burned with these jerks, hopefully with the elitist jerks tied to the bridge as it burns.”
Read his conservative colleague, Ben Domenech:
“There will be very negative consequences for a Romney loss for the power of center-right elites who are largely viewed as foisting him on the base despite the latter’s objections. A Romney loss almost certainly pushes the 2016 nominee rightward, and I doubt the megaphones will be powerful enough to frame the 2012 contest, as they did in 2008, as one where the conservative Veep choice dragged down the ticket.
“Like it or not, the money and opinion elites on the center-right own Romney’s failure from the perspective of the base — they need him to win. And the reality is that if Romney loses, it will have little if anything to do with Paul Ryan’s big ideas, tactical choices, or elite misgivings — and far more to do with the simple fact that Romney is still disliked by most voters.”
Both men insist — and on this they are correct — that the battle is not yet lost. There is still time — barely — to turn the race around, although at this point something major would have to happen to do so. I have yet to see such anguished handwringing from anyone on the left, which tells you something.
The thrust of the argument from Erickson, Domenech and many others is equally telling: Should we fail, our failure can be explained only by the fact that our movement has been insufficiently pure, that our message is insufficiently pure, and that we ourselves have been insufficiently pure. Move farther right, ever farther right, for there lies true salvation.
From my version of reality, that response dooms you to perpetual minority status. From theirs, it represents pursuit of the true faith. And one of those realities is very very wrong.
– Jay Bookman
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1,181 comments Add your comment
USMC
September 26th, 2012
4:53 pm
Poor Getalife…. I really feel badly for you.
DebbieDoRight - You Show Me A Capitalist & I'll Show You A Bloodsucker...
September 26th, 2012
4:54 pm
JHM @ 4:43 – Maybe as employees we just need to say “you promise that compensation that I will never see so i am going to promise you this level of work from me that you won’t actually get.
I stole that quote from Finn. He wasn’t using it anyway…….
Brosephus™
September 26th, 2012
4:54 pm
76th grade???
Dayum!! I missed that one…
They BOTH suck
September 26th, 2012
4:55 pm
Scout
Actually, I was referring to the numerous times bloggers have mentioned the salaries and benefits of Fed workers.
That is why I asked, were you part of those “workers” that they demean?
JamVet
September 26th, 2012
4:55 pm
getalife is right. Hate filled static is not good for con’s blood pressure and eroding mental health.
But what the hell, if they live long enough, they’ll all be on Obamney care anyway…
Welcome to the Occupation
September 26th, 2012
4:57 pm
Been out for a while.
Hi all you crazy loons! How you doin!
Mark in mid-town
September 26th, 2012
4:57 pm
Jay Bookman writes: “The Bush administration claimed absolute knowledge of WMD, right down to the places in which it was stored. When the UN sent inspectors into those sites pre-war and found nothing, and found nothing, and found nothing … we invaded anyway.”
———————————————————————————————————————
The Bush Administration obviously did not trust Saddam Hussein, and neither did any prominent Democrat either. The Bush Administration relied upon the overwhelming consensus opinion of the various arms of the intelligence community. That overwhelming consensus opinion was largely not from political arms of the intelligence community, but rather it was accumulated largely from the institutional apparatus of the intelligence community which included career professionals put in place under Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush and Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter before. But more of the apparatus in their prime years had attained their rank during the 8 years of Clinton than under anyone else. It was also under Bill Clinton’s presidency that promoting regime change in Iran was not only a foreign policy goal, it actually became the law of the country when President Clinton signed the Iraq Liberation Act in October of 1998.
Prominent Democrats such as Hillary Clinton and John Kerry and countless others did not so much rely upon what the Bush Administration was telling them. These such prominent Democrats had their own connections within the intelligence community who were telling them the same things the Bush Administration was saying. Let’s not forget that President G. W. Bush had more congressional support for taking on Saddam than did the first President Bush back in 1990/1991. The reason was not that G.W. Bush had lied to them, rather it was because these people knew very well that what Bush Administration was saying was entirely consistent with what prominent Democrats were being told as well from their connections within the intelligence community, connections which greatly pre-dated George W. Bush becoming president in 2001.
The overwhelming consensus opinion wasn’t 100% as it never is, but it was as overwhelming a consensus opinion from the intelligence community as we’ve probably had regarding the intentions of any middle eastern leader in modern times. Part of the left’s rewriting of history is how Bush used 9/11 as an excuse to rush into war with Iraq because it’s what they always intended. But 9/11 happened in 2001. President Bush didn’t end up initiating the war with Iraq until March of 2003, a full 1.5 yrs after 9/11/2001. In other words the march to war was cautious and deliberative. It was not rushed, nor pursued for politically opportunistic reasons. It was because they truly thought it was necessarily and Bush certainly risked his chances of re-election by pursuing it.
kayaker 71
September 26th, 2012
4:58 pm
So, now Bookman and the liberal sycophants would have us believe that it is all over and Republicans need not go to the polls and vote in November. They said that about Carter in 1980 when he was “up” by 32 points over Reagan. Reagan went ahead and took all but 6 states. Rasmussen, along with Gallup, has been the only really reliable poll since this began. He samples likely voters, not registered voters. Everyone but Rasmussen samples far more Democrats than Republicans, sometimes as much as 10% more. In at least three polls favoring Bozo, they only sampled 1% of Independents although Independents make up nearly one third of the electorate. To say that these polls are unrealistic is an understatement. One of the reason why the media does this is to try to influence early voters. Most people want to vote for a winner especially if he is an incumbent. Then they see that “Romney doesn’t have a prayer” and that influences their choice. Bozo and the Demos know this. So does the media. The media is so much in the hip pocket of the Demos that they don’t deserve to be called the media anymore…… just an extension of the Democratic National Committee. That might make lots of liberals happy for now but, we, as a nation, will pay the price for this in the long run. Rasmussen and Gallup have the race dead even. Once again, Romney 320 electoral votes….. Bozo 218. Count on it.
getalife
September 26th, 2012
4:59 pm
usmc,
Why?
Rafe Hollister
September 26th, 2012
5:00 pm
Brosephus
Should be a workable solution to do both spending and revenue at once and get it over with. But, if you say yes, when the bully asks for your lunch money, and he still knocks you down, before leaving with your money, most folks wise up. If they decide they are too small to fight back, they at least learn to keep their money or their self respect, one or the other.
How many times does the GOP lose their revenue and their self respect, by agreeing with something the Dems have no intention of honoring?
You are right, the Ryan plan to balance the budget, in what 28 years, is a joke, although the Dems claim it is EXTREME.
Ryan has a poor plan, but it is what he thinks he might have a chance to pass. Doubtful as Dems do not want a balanced budget, they think it restrains government too much, go figure. Barry has no plan and nothing on the horizon.
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
September 26th, 2012
5:01 pm
Someone answer this for me – If Pres Obama is re-elected and the Repubs keep control of the House, I do not think any thing positive will happen for either side. Does it make that big of a difference which party wins control of the Senate. I hear it can go either way?
JamVet
September 26th, 2012
5:02 pm
Corporation Mitt tries yet another new tactic – the compassionate conservative.
“I’ve been across this country. My heart aches for the people I’ve seen,”
Fred ™
September 26th, 2012
5:02 pm
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
September 26th, 2012
4:47 pm
Fred:
Are you a doctor ?
++++++++++++++++++++
nope. But i know about crowning.
Obama arrogance
September 26th, 2012
5:03 pm
Thank you Class of 98 for referencing the Scott Walker ELECTION. After all, this column is about an ELECTION but the ‘journalist’ who wrote it chooses to instead reference Bush and the Iraq war, followed by CNN. Who needs objectivity? LOL…
getalife
September 26th, 2012
5:03 pm
“But what the hell, if they live long enough, they’ll all be on Obamney care anyway…”
Leaving their kids no way to make a decent living because the wealthy controls most of the wealth means their kids can’t take care of them when they get older.
Cutting Medicare means the government can’t do it too so they are on the streets.
Bad karma man.
Joe Hussein Mama
September 26th, 2012
5:04 pm
M. in mid-town — “The Bush Administration obviously did not trust Saddam Hussein, and neither did any prominent Democrat either. The Bush Administration relied upon the overwhelming consensus opinion of the various arms of the intelligence community.”
Irrelevant.
Believing Iraq had WMD did not *compel* us to invade, particularly since we claimed to be operating under the aegis of UN Resolutions. Given than UN weapons inspectors were working in the country at the time President Bush told them to GTFO before we got to work, it’s pretty clear that our invasion worked at cross purposes to the UN resolutions we purported to be upholding.
And FWIW, there *was* no UNR justifying our invasion. The applicable UNRs *spelled out* next steps in the event of Saddam Hussein’s continued recalcitrance — and they *definitely* didn’t match up with what we did.
Rafe Hollister
September 26th, 2012
5:04 pm
Kayaker
The most recent polls, I read, have more Dems represented than even turned out in 2008. How can that be if they are actually trying to get it right. No one is expecting the Dem turnout to approach 2008, probably more like 2010 or something totally different.
Fred ™
September 26th, 2012
5:05 pm
That Black Guy
September 26th, 2012
4:49 pm
Fred ™
September 26th, 2012
1:49 pm
Daymn Fred, how long were you in school?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
LOL It only SEEMED like that long. (I’m hit and miss as I let the dishes I didn’t wash today “marinate” in water lol.
Fred ™
September 26th, 2012
5:06 pm
Brosephus™
September 26th, 2012
4:54 pm
76th grade???
Dayum!! I missed that one…
++++++++++++++++++++
I done tole you I went through school faster than anyone else…….
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
September 26th, 2012
5:07 pm
Fred@4:46 – Now that is the Fred I remember! You were being too nice on earlier postings, I got confused.
USMC
September 26th, 2012
5:07 pm
“Why”–Getalife
Well, first of all your New Orleans Saints are GOOSE EGG and 3.
And now after watching the Bengal Tigers limp out of Auburn last week end. Your LSU Tigers aren’t going to make the trip to Atlanta this year to face the Jawja Bulldogs for the SEC Title!
(and don’t forget Comrade Obama losing the election n November!)
So I just wanted to let you know that I was thinking of you.
We can still have Beers and Cigars, etc.
Joe Hussein Mama
September 26th, 2012
5:07 pm
K71 — “So, now Bookman and the liberal sycophants would have us believe that it is all over and Republicans need not go to the polls and vote in November.”
Nah. I think the general feeling among us is that it’s over whether you go vote *or not.*
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
September 26th, 2012
5:08 pm
Will the SONS OF CONFEDERATE VETERANS! be poll watching on election night?
JamVet
September 26th, 2012
5:08 pm
Once again, Romney 320 electoral votes….. Bozo 218. Count on it.
OK.
New polls in three swing states indicate President Barack Obama exceeding 50% support among likely voters and holding leads of nine to 12 points over Republican nominee Mitt Romney.
Fueling those numbers, the four polls suggest that Romney has lost his edge on the economy, an issue on which the challenger has based his campaign.
The new surveys come one day after another batch of battleground state polls also suggested Obama with the advantage.
The fresh batch of polls in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, which together account for 67 electoral votes, were released by Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times and Franklin and Marshall College.
Fred ™
September 26th, 2012
5:08 pm
Obama arrogance
September 26th, 2012
5:03 pm
Thank you Class of 98 for referencing the Scott Walker ELECTION. After all, this column is about an ELECTION but the ‘journalist’ who wrote it chooses to instead reference Bush and the Iraq war, followed by CNN. Who needs objectivity? LOL…
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
And here we have yet ANOTHER brainiac who lacks the wits to know what an OPINION blog is.
See? THESE are the types that listen to talk radio and vote republican. Thank GOD I have a brain and am not like them……
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
September 26th, 2012
5:09 pm
Getalife – Obama does have fun, you see it in his smile every day. He is a good man, loves his family but I just do not completely agree with his policies. Actually I feel the same about Romney.
Fred ™
September 26th, 2012
5:09 pm
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
September 26th, 2012
5:07 pm
Fred@4:46 – Now that is the Fred I remember! You were being too nice on earlier postings, I got confused.
+++++++++++++++++++
Gotta keep you on your toes.
East Cobb RINO, Inc. (LLC)
September 26th, 2012
5:10 pm
Someone answer this for me……
Tom, IMHO I would be surprised if that were to happen. The country is so divided right now that most folks will vote straight ticket. So whoever wins the Presidency, that party will probably get a sufficient coattail effect to win down ticket races as well. In which case the losing side will have some serious inner reflecting to do.
Fred ™
September 26th, 2012
5:12 pm
Will the SONS OF CONFEDERATE VETERANS! be poll watching on election night?
They better not be until I’ve finished washing the dishes and cooking supper so I can get firsties on the thread and get a hat trick for the day……..
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
September 26th, 2012
5:12 pm
Joe Hussein Mama:
I hear you but if you investigated it as I did over the years you would personally realize just how high the “laziness” and “fraud” percentages are.
There are many, many needy persons out there and the ones who don’t derserve it are actually taking money out of their pockets. It really is a disgrace. That’s all I mean and that’s all I believe most conservatives mean.
P.S.
And I hate to say it, but the Veterans Administration is one of the worst for a high percentage of undeserved benefits and outright fraud.
JamVet
September 26th, 2012
5:12 pm
I suspect that in response to the GOP’s
War on WomenFull Scale Legislative Assault on Women’s Rights that America’s female voters are NOT going to stay home this fall.You go, girls!
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
September 26th, 2012
5:13 pm
Fred:
Roger that and it happens in the U.S. everyday (just a different method of execution).
JamVet
September 26th, 2012
5:14 pm
…but the Veterans Administration is one of the worst for a high percentage of undeserved benefits and outright fraud.
Got any links to support that claim?
Didn’t think so…
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
September 26th, 2012
5:14 pm
Fred:
You said you didn’t like “bumper stickers” but how about this one?
“Equal Rights for Unborn Women”
kayaker 71
September 26th, 2012
5:15 pm
rafe, 5:04,
Most of the “sampling” by these polls was to echo exit polls in 2004 and 2008 which were notoriously inaccurate. Then when it came to sampling 2010, they entirely ignored the Republican shellacing that the Demos received. If Bozo is so far ahead in Ohio, why is he there campaigning and spending all of that money? The poll in Pennsylvania shows Bozo ahead by 11%. That is exactly how many more, as a percentage, of Democrats that were sampled in the poll than Republicans. If not for that, they would be dead even as Rasmussen suggests. This media blitz on how well Bozo is doing is a disservice to the electorate and a blotch on their credibility from which they will never recover. Ever wonder why only about 25% of the people think that the media is a reliable source of information? Before long, they will be as bad as our Congress.
bman
September 26th, 2012
5:15 pm
Obama has an 80% chance of winning? I hope reading that doesn’t make you too excited on election night. Ever went to bed hearing there’s an 80% chance of snow then wake up & the only thing you see white is you wife scratching her large buttocks?
If Romney loses, I’m hoping for a snowstorm excuse.
Jay
September 26th, 2012
5:16 pm
Absent breaking news, the cry of SCV will not produce the desired response this evening.
That is all.
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
September 26th, 2012
5:16 pm
Yeah, my guess is either that jo is being one of those “real” Jews that crier is always going on about or he is in Springfield, Illinois at the Abraham Lincoln Library and Museum…
Well, I see what josef has to say about Abraham Lincoln, so you can rule Springfield IL out. He’s just a little nastier to Lincoln than he is to me.
Joe Hussein Mama
September 26th, 2012
5:16 pm
0311 — “I hear you but if you investigated it as I did over the years you would personally realize just how high the “laziness” and “fraud” percentages are.”
Okay, I’m willing to hear you out. Tell me what you know. But please bear in mind that I’m interested in the *percentages* — which *you* just cited.
“There are many, many needy persons out there and the ones who don’t derserve it are actually taking money out of their pockets. It really is a disgrace. That’s all I mean and that’s all I believe most conservatives mean.”
If they haven’t researched it as you have, then I have a hard time believing that they’re coming from the same place as you are.
“And I hate to say it, but the Veterans Administration is one of the worst for a high percentage of undeserved benefits and outright fraud.”
FWIW, I understand that I’m a rather rare animal — a disabled veteran who *doesn’t* draw a pension. And yes, my disability is service-connected.
Fred ™
September 26th, 2012
5:16 pm
JamVet
September 26th, 2012
5:14 pm
…but the Veterans Administration is one of the worst for a high percentage of undeserved benefits and outright fraud.
Got any links to support that claim?
Didn’t think so…
+++++++++++++++++++
It shouldn’t take much of a google Jamvet. The VA has some ungodly amount of property that they pay 10’s if not 100’s of millions to “maintain” that they don’t use. The VA has always been pretty corrupt. Kind of like Chicago politics……..
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
September 26th, 2012
5:17 pm
JamVet:
Personal experience investigating fraud in V.A. benefits (including families of deceased veterans still receiving their benefits, fake veterans and veterans who did not serve as they stated receiving benefits ………. just to name a few areas.). All of those take money right out of the pockets of indigent veterans (especially those wounded and still suffering) who deserve better.
Welcome to the Occupation
September 26th, 2012
5:17 pm
I’m Chris Christie and I’ve hijacked the account of WTO.
How ya doin?
Fred ™
September 26th, 2012
5:17 pm
Jay
September 26th, 2012
5:16 pm
Absent breaking news, the cry of SCV will not produce the desired response this evening.
That is all.
++++++++++++++++
Damn. that means I have to go wash the f’ing dishes. It was HER that broke the damn dishwasher so why am I having to wash the dishes?
pogo
September 26th, 2012
5:17 pm
Today, the NYT’s and a couple of other polls proclaim “Game Over, Obama wins on 11/6″. That means that the entitlement crowd won’t even have to show up to vote in November and since they are so lazy and government dependent they probably won’t. The Stern interview was very interesting. You libs must be very proud of your “base”. Just another nail into the coffin of this country and its children.
JamVet
September 26th, 2012
5:18 pm
President Barack Obama’s campaign is calling GOP nominee Mitt Romney a hypocrite when it comes to China in a new web video released Wednesday.
The narrator in the video says while the Republican candidate talks tough on China for “stealing American ideas and technology” on the campaign stump, in the past Romney did not hesitate to make money off Chinese companies.
“Romney invested in China’s version of YouTube–a haven for stealing American videos,” says the narrator in the 30-second video. “Romney’s even invested in a Chinese electronics company being sued by Microsoft for pirating its software.”
The video concludes: “If Romney really wanted China to stop stealing why would he send them his money?”
Unfit to lead.
Fred ™
September 26th, 2012
5:18 pm
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
September 26th, 2012
5:14 pm
Fred:
You said you didn’t like “bumper stickers” but how about this one?
“Equal Rights for Unborn Women”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Naw. I don’t like it. How about ” She (or he) is not a choice, she’s your child.”
pogo
September 26th, 2012
5:19 pm
And Jay is not a journalist. He is a hack.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
September 26th, 2012
5:19 pm
I suspect that in response to the GOP’s
War on WomenFull Scale Legislative Assault on Women’s Rights that America’s female voters are NOT going to stay home this fall.You go, girls!
Ironic if that also happens to play a significant role in the margin of victory in the election also, particularly down ticket elections.
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
September 26th, 2012
5:20 pm
Now if anyone in the ATL area sees Black Panthers(like the last Pres election) standing in doorway of election location intimidating potential voters, they are to contact Fred, Jamvet, getalife, 1811, USMC, Joe Mama or myself. We will stand next to those thugs, hopefully eliminating the influence factor! Agreed? Time for dinner!
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
September 26th, 2012
5:20 pm
JamVet @ 5:14
It’s all here if you want to do the research and it’s only the tip of the iceberg. Like most IG’s, they only have enough agents to just touch the surface:
http://www.va.gov/oig/publications/semiannual-reports.asp
Doggone/GA
September 26th, 2012
5:21 pm
” It was HER that broke the damn dishwasher so why am I having to wash the dishes?”
It’s the fault of the liberal media?
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
September 26th, 2012
5:21 pm
I almost forgot, USA, USA, USA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They BOTH suck
September 26th, 2012
5:21 pm
pogo
Link or is that your brainwashed talk radio mind regurgitating what you were told?
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
September 26th, 2012
5:21 pm
Fred @ 5:18
I like it.
Joe Hussein Mama
September 26th, 2012
5:22 pm
K71 — “If Bozo is so far ahead in Ohio, why is he there campaigning and spending all of that money?”
When the Braves are four or five runs ahead, do they stop playing ball?
“The poll in Pennsylvania shows Bozo ahead by 11%. That is exactly how many more, as a percentage, of Democrats that were sampled in the poll than Republicans.”
And another non-statistician admits it.
If you think you can explain to me — with a complete mathematical proof — why what you’re saying is correct, I’m all ears. And FWIW, saying “everybody knows” isn’t proof.
JamVet
September 26th, 2012
5:23 pm
Your “personal experience” is not verifiable. And not useful.
I’m asking for some empirical, corroboratable (is that a real word?) evidence, not stories.
I suspect that the rate of fraud and abuse in the VA is very, very low. But I would never assert that as a fact unless I had done some basic research first. (hint. hint.)
USMC
September 26th, 2012
5:24 pm
“And Jay is not a journalist. He is a hack.”–pogo
Jay just believes what the Party Political Operatives tell him to believe.
Don’t be so hard on him. He actually seems like a pretty nice guy; a bit out of touch is all.
kayaker 71
September 26th, 2012
5:25 pm
JamVet, 5:08,
Did you take a good look at who they sampled? The mix was as much as 11% more Demos than Repubs and they only sampled 1% of independents. With that kind of bias, you can make any poll look good for whomever you please. If you eliminate these variables and include at least a third of your sampling as independents as they should have, Bozo would be as much as 5 or more points behind. Perhaps more. It also suggests, by only sampling elections in 2004 and 2008 that the turnout for each candidate will be the same. Look at 2010. And they didn’t even include that election in their sampling. If you sample a fair mix of the likely voters and include exit poll data in 2010, you get a far better prediction of a likely result.
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
September 26th, 2012
5:26 pm
Joe Hussein Mama:
1) May I recommend “Stolen Valor” by Burkett. A good portion of that book documents not just the fraudulent wearing of ribbons, etc. but the massive benefit fraud at the V.A.
2) “FWIW, I understand that I’m a rather rare animal — a disabled veteran who *doesn’t* draw a pension. And yes, my disability is service-connected.”
God bless you ……….. if you deserve it you should apply for those benefits. I also probably could regarding exposure to agent orange but choose not to.
Paul
September 26th, 2012
5:26 pm
b-troll
[[“You cannot cut your way to a balanced budget.”
Hogwash. Done every day by millions of Americans.]]
Well, you’ve been carrying on for some time now in the finest con tradition, ridiculing others but offering absolutely nothing of substance on the subject.
So… FY2013. No tax increases. Balance the budget. Tell us how it’s done.
Time to put up.
_____________________________________________________________
HI DebbieDoRight!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I figured the answer would be ‘no’ but you sure have a fun and eloquent way of putting it!
getalife
September 26th, 2012
5:26 pm
USMC,
Ouch. That hurt
Not only did the Braves make the playoffs last night, the Falcons and the Bulldogs are looking good too.
A good time to be an Atlanta sports fan.
JamVet
September 26th, 2012
5:26 pm
So tell me, what is the percentage of abuse/fraud listed in those reports?
You have NO clue, do you?
You have not cracked the very first one.
You are just spitballing it.
It’s OK.
It is what I expect from you.
Talking the talk, but not…
Jay
September 26th, 2012
5:27 pm
And Jay is not a journalist. He is a hack.
I didn’t know you had seen me on the golf course….
Brosephus™
September 26th, 2012
5:28 pm
Rafe
It HAS to be a workable solution, otherwise America gets screwed. The way things go now is that one party is the bully and takes the lunch money. When elections switch majorities, the same things happens with the parties reversed. How many times do we have to go through this until we realize that doing the same thing and expecting different results is pure idiocy?
How many times does the GOP lose their revenue and their self respect, by agreeing with something the Dems have no intention of honoring?
The same number of times that the Dems do. They do the same thing to each other over and over.
If I had any sway over our budget situation, I would do a full, audit of the entire government from head to toe. Once the areas of duplicity could be eliminated, I’d work on tamping down fraud. After we get to a reasonable baseline, I would give the parties one chance every 10 years to adjust taxes or spending outside of what would be considered normal increases/decreases.
The reason being, the tax policies we enacted 5-10 years ago are the policies that are affecting us now. We’ve dug ourselves into a deep fiscal hole, and the only way we’re going to get out of it is if we quit the destructive behavior. Cutting revenues to address deficits is assinine logic, regardless to how one tries to explain it.
JamVet
September 26th, 2012
5:28 pm
71, where did you find that info?
Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)
September 26th, 2012
5:31 pm
Well, it ain’t wine, women and song, but at least it’s PBR and the missus here at the trailer. But something is missing—Andy Williams, a guy God give all the voice to while a couple million other men were left with just a croak or two. I can’t stand to wait for FNM, and seeing as how it’s that time of year, here’s a good one nobody will be hearing live again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHF8CX3i4SY
Brosephus™
September 26th, 2012
5:31 pm
Ever went to bed hearing there’s an 80% chance of snow then wake up & the only thing you see white is you wife scratching her large buttocks?
Can’t say that I’ve had that experience. If I wake up and see some white buttocks, then something has gone horribly wrong.
JamVet
September 26th, 2012
5:32 pm
Last week President Obama designated Colorado’s Chimney Rock as a national monument, protecting this amazing wild place for future generations. This designation ensures long-term protection of a place that is spiritually, ecologically, and culturally significant and remains of great importance to modern Pueblo Indians.
The designation was made under the Antiquities Act with bi-partisan support from Colorado officials, the Native American community, local businesses and other stakeholders.
Thank you, Mr. President and to all involved
http://www.oldwestnewwest.com/20120925691/travel/preservation/colorados-chimney-rock-named-national-monument-by-president-obama.html.
USMC
September 26th, 2012
5:33 pm
“Ouch. That hurt
Not only did the Braves make the playoffs last night, the Falcons and the Bulldogs are looking good too. A good time to be an Atlanta sports fan.”–Getalife
You know I’m just “messin” with you.
Your Tigers have proven themselves plenty of times in the last few years, etc.
Now it is time for the Dawgs to step up and prove themselves. (talk is cheap)
I went to the Braves last night. What an incredible finish. I am still hoarse today.
Anyway, I still have Gumbo, Cigars, Beer, and college football on the brain.
I guess it is that time of year!
Geax Dawgs!
A Simple Man
September 26th, 2012
5:33 pm
I’m glad to see Jay stayed away from saying the Republican voters would resort to violence or destruction of property. That’s more of an Occupy Wallstreet thing, but since the Right usually gets accused of it I was glad to see it was avoided this time.
Joseph
September 26th, 2012
5:34 pm
Well Jay reality certainly did sink in when Republicans had a historic victory in 2010 while demolishing many liberal democrats in moderate to conservative area’s of the country. The same will happen this year most likely. Sure dems will gain at best 5 to 10 seats in the house but Republicans will close in on retaking the Senate. If not this year certainly in 2014 the Senate will be in Repub hands. I’m stunned that dems are so confidant that Obama will be re-elected when most sane people agree he’s done a horrible job. Keep your head up Jay. When the defeat comes down in November don’t say I didn’t tell you….
Joe Hussein Mama
September 26th, 2012
5:35 pm
K71 — “Did you take a good look at who they sampled? The mix was as much as 11% more Demos than Repubs and they only sampled 1% of independents. With that kind of bias, you can make any poll look good for whomever you please.”
Are you asserting selection bias in the survey instrument design?
Because if your survey population is properly randomized, variances in demographic groups outside of their actual representation in the broader pool of possible respondents *doesn’t matter.*
Would you be upset if poor people were under-represented in the survey? Why or why not? How about women? Shouldn’t there be around 52% female respondents, to accurately equal their distribution in the US population? How about education? Are you sure that the polls you like are accurately reflecting the level of education in the US electorate as a whole?
The fact of the matter is that this ‘oversampling’ argument is completely irrelevant, and people who have actually *done* statistics for a living know that. OTOH, people who aren’t quite so informed buy right into it.
“If you eliminate these variables and include at least a third of your sampling as independents as they should have, Bozo would be as much as 5 or more points behind.”
Really? Okay, show your math. How do you calculate that?
“Perhaps more.”
Uh huh. You’re certain the numbers are off, but you can’t say why or by how much.
“It also suggests, by only sampling elections in 2004 and 2008 that the turnout for each candidate will be the same.”
Red herring. There is no way on earth to accurately predict Election Day turnout unless you can travel forward in time. You’re buying Rasmussen’s argument, which is simply his justification for playing with his numbers to make conservative candidates look like they’re doing better than they actually are.
“Look at 2010. And they didn’t even include that election in their sampling. If you sample a fair mix of the likely voters and include exit poll data in 2010, you get a far better prediction of a likely result.”
Why would you consider 2010 data in a poll about the 2012 elections? That’s like using your February bank statement to balance your checkbook in September. (laughing)
Brosephus™
September 26th, 2012
5:36 pm
JHM: FWIW, I understand that I’m a rather rare animal — a disabled veteran who *doesn’t* draw a pension. And yes, my disability is service-connected.
Rare indeed. I had an uncle that passed a few years ago who was a Vietnam vet who served in the Marines. When going through his paperwork, we found that he didn’t sign up or take a single penny worth of benefits of any kind from the VA. He worked for a local manufacturing plant at home and started and ran his own successful business before he died.
Joe Hussein Mama
September 26th, 2012
5:36 pm
0311 — “1) May I recommend “Stolen Valor” by Burkett. A good portion of that book documents not just the fraudulent wearing of ribbons, etc. but the massive benefit fraud at the V.A.”
I’ll look into it, but I’m still interested in percentages.
JamVet
September 26th, 2012
5:37 pm
Simple man,
If there is no struggle, there is no progress.
Those who profess to favor freedom, and yet depreciate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground. They want rain without thunder and lightning. They want the ocean without the awful roar of its many waters. This struggle may be a moral one; or it may be a physical one; or it may be both moral and physical; but it must be a struggle.
Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will.
Find out just what a people will submit to, and you have found out the exact amount of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them; and these will continue till they are resisted with either words or blows, or with both.
The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress.
Men may not get all they pay for in this world; but they must pay for all they get. If we ever get free from all the oppressions and wrongs heaped upon us, we must pay for their removal. We must do this by labor, by suffering, by sacrifice, and, if needs be, by our lives, and the lives of others. ~Frederick Douglass, 1857
USMC
September 26th, 2012
5:37 pm
“I didn’t know you had seen me on the golf course….”–JAY
LOL! I don’t exactly see Jay on a Golf course. That’s too Bourgeoisie for Jay.
Well then again, I COULD see Jay ‘playing’ at Candler Park with his Flannel shirt off and a six patch of Pabst in the Cooler!
Go Bookman, FORE!
getalife
September 26th, 2012
5:37 pm
I don’t think looking for little golf balls in the woods or in the water is a sport.
More like hunting I guess.
They BOTH suck
September 26th, 2012
5:37 pm
“When the defeat comes down in November don’t say I didn’t tell you….”
Don’t play Casper the Ghost when it doesn’t come down your way………
just saying
Fred ™
September 26th, 2012
5:37 pm
Brosephus™
September 26th, 2012
5:31 pm
Can’t say that I’ve had that experience. If I wake up and see some white buttocks, then something has gone horribly wrong.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
ESPECIALLY if I come home early and catch you in my bed………….
Brosephus™
September 26th, 2012
5:38 pm
USMC
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the only shade of red that will see victory in the SEC championship game will be Crimson. When LSU is unable to do it, the Tide is more than able to represent the West.
Ray Tardinski
September 26th, 2012
5:38 pm
New poll just out from Europe – 87 percent of Europeans polled would vote for Barry. In other news, the EU is on the brink of collapse due to years of socialists programs and unchecked spending. Hmmmm, maybe we could learn something and draw a correlation- nah, that would require thinking.
Paul
September 26th, 2012
5:39 pm
““Equal Rights for Unborn Women””
Followed by a really long bumper sticker
“Unless there’s a serious medical condition, then Scout gets to kill the mother and claim self defense.”
Paul
September 26th, 2012
5:40 pm
Ray
Yeah, the Europeans overwhelmingly would want Obama steering them out of the mess they’re in.
Joe Hussein Mama
September 26th, 2012
5:40 pm
Brosephus — “Rare indeed. I had an uncle that passed a few years ago who was a Vietnam vet who served in the Marines. When going through his paperwork, we found that he didn’t sign up or take a single penny worth of benefits of any kind from the VA. He worked for a local manufacturing plant at home and started and ran his own successful business before he died.”
I can work and be productive with just a few accomodations on the part of my employer. I do have see doctors and physical therapists quite a bit, but otherwise, I seem to manage just fine.
FWIW, I don’t really think it would be worth the trouble to apply, and besides, there are vets coming back home who are FAR more disabled than me. They need the help worse than I do.
Brosephus™
September 26th, 2012
5:41 pm
Fred @ 5:37
Reading that post brought this movie to mind.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-DFg1aS_2E
Jm
September 26th, 2012
5:41 pm
Daughters of confederate veterans!
getalife
September 26th, 2012
5:41 pm
“I went to the Braves last night. What an incredible finish. I am still hoarse today.”
I was at a bar in Buckhead when they won the Championship.
First they danced on the bar, then we hit the streets.
JamVet
September 26th, 2012
5:43 pm
October baseball in Atlanta. And what a great final season for Chipper.
Yeah, baby!
Brosephus™
September 26th, 2012
5:44 pm
JHM
I can’t argue about those who are currently coming home. There are even contractors returning that are going to have lingering issues. I talk to people coming back, and the stories are like a punch to the gut.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
September 26th, 2012
5:44 pm
When the defeat comes down in November don’t say I didn’t tell you….
I’ve got your prediction bookmarked so I will know exactly what you posted.
USMC
September 26th, 2012
5:45 pm
“I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the only shade of red that will see victory in the SEC championship game will be Crimson. When LSU is unable to do it, the Tide is more than able to represent the West.”–Brocephus
Well Brocephus, I can’t argue with your wisdom.I have nothing to say, as I have to tip my cap to your program.
BUT, as I always tell my fellow Bulldogs, you have to prove it on the field.
(as you guys certainly have)
So, barring any foul ups in the East, we will see you in the Dome, Brother!
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
September 26th, 2012
5:45 pm
JamVet and Joe Hussein Mama:
I have given you two resources (Inspector General website and “Stolen Valor”).
I have stated my personal experiences involving federal investigations.
The truth is there if you wish to know.
Jm
September 26th, 2012
5:46 pm
Sons of Mexican American Veterans!
Hmm
Sons of 1812 Veterans?
They BOTH suck
September 26th, 2012
5:46 pm
Polls could be wrong and I think will tighten as we go through October. Romney campaign spending blitz should really be ramping up in the swing states.
With that said, I doubt there would be much talk from the very ones complaining about the “sample mix” if Romney were leading at this time.
Thomas
September 26th, 2012
5:47 pm
From Forbes online- fact or fiction?
Romney and Obama tied in Rasmussen Poll: Most Accurate Pollster in 2008 and 2004
October baseball in Atlanta. And what a great final season for Chipper
Amazing old man- guy can’t touch his toes but still has one of the sweatest swings ever. Still think there is a chance he goes AL next year for DH to 500HRs. Anyway- Politico says 34% chance of that happening
Joe Hussein Mama
September 26th, 2012
5:47 pm
0311 — “I have given you two resources (Inspector General website and “Stolen Valor”).”
I must have missed that IG link. Could you repost it, please?
Thomas
September 26th, 2012
5:48 pm
I guess he does sweat when he exhibits his sweet swing-
Welcome to the Occupation
September 26th, 2012
5:48 pm
New poll just out from Europe – 87 percent of Europeans polled would vote for Barry. In other news, the EU is on the brink of collapse due to years of socialists programs and unchecked spending
Ha! Knew that was coming from how it started. \
Ray, you ought to do a little actual thinking and reading, rather than listening to American right-wing talking points.
The crisis of the European economies has nothing whatsoever to do with “socialist spending” programs but rather with a poorly founded currency union with no political foundation for fiscal transfers and meshing between economies with different strengths. The EU is a neoliberal wet dream, hardly socialist.
As for O’s European popularity (Hollande joked he would withhold his endorsement so as not to confuse the thick Americans), Obama is already a solidly center right politician here. In Europe he’s actually even further to the right.
kayaker 71
September 26th, 2012
5:49 pm
Joe,5:40,
In my experience, you are a rare bird. The disability claims that attempt to come across the desk of Retirement Services would astound you. All of us in the military were pressed to do retirement physicals periodically as a precursor to possible disability claim by the retiree. The hardest one to prove was PTSD and it was the most abused. Some of these guys should be in Hollywood. The average disability granted for combat arms was 30%, sometimes more. But the bizarre stories and lies from those who had no disability at all were sometimes legend. Once again, I admire you for your honesty and integrity. We ought to have more like you.
Jm
September 26th, 2012
5:51 pm
Sons of Prussian Veterans? (I know, it was a long shot)