Take a sober look at military option against Iran
We have learned, one would hope, not to wade into another war blindly optimistic about what it might accomplish or what costs it might entail. Given the rhetoric and bluster bandied about regarding Iran, however, some have learned those lessons less well than others.
A group of foreign policy experts calling itself the Iran Project has undertaken a study of the potential benefits and costs of military intervention against Iran by the United States and Israel. Its work has been endorsed by well-known figures in the foreign-policy field such as former U.S. Sens. Sam Nunn and Chuck Hagel, former national security advisers Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft, and seven former generals or admirals with extensive military experience in the Middle East.
The report, available here, takes as a given that “a nuclear-armed Iran would pose dangerous challenges to U.S. interests and security, as well as to the security of Israel.” It simply attempts to lay out in clear fashion both the potential benefits and costs of attempting to solve that problem through military means.
Among their findings, authors of the report suggest that a military attack by Israel would succeed in delaying Iran’s nuclear program by two years at best. The United States, with its additional resources, could set the effort back by as long as four years, but would then be forced to repeat the process on a fairly regular basis over an extended period of time. Once undertaken, such attacks would greatly reduce the chances of eventually ending the program by non-military means.
“In fact,” the report states, “we believe that a U.S. attack on Iran would increase Iran’s motivation to build a bomb, because 1) the Iranian leadership would become more convinced than ever that regime change is the goal of U.S. policy, and 2) building a bomb would be seen as a way to inhibit future attacks and redress the humiliation of being attacked.” It also concludes that resistance within Iran to the current regime would all but disappear as the Iranian people rally against outside invaders.
The authors also warn that “In addition to costing the U.S. economy hundreds of billions of dollars yearly, a sustained conflict would boost the price of oil and further disrupt an already fragile world economy.”
Given their backgrounds, we can assume that the authors of the report are privy to discussions in Washington that the rest of us are not. That makes one section of their report particularly chilling:
“Privately, some national security experts and advisors may have embraced the more modest objective of delaying Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon, as a step toward prevention; but some others may have embraced objectives that are far broader than official statements currently suggest. Even in order to fulfill the stated objective of ensuring that Iran never acquires a nuclear bomb, the U.S. would need to conduct a significantly expanded air and sea war over a prolonged period of time, likely several years. If the U.S. decided to seek a more ambitious objective, such as regime change in Iran or undermining Iran’s influence in the region, then an even greater commitment of force would be required to occupy all or part of the country.
Given Iran’s large size and population, and the strength of Iranian nationalism, we estimate that the occupation of Iran would require a commit- ment of resources and personnel greater than what the U.S. has expended over the past 10 years in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined.” (emphasis original).
In addition to the significant financial costs of conducting such attacks, the report warns, “serious costs to U.S. interests would also be felt over the longer term, we believe, with problematic consequences for global and regional stability, including economic stability. A dynamic of escalation, action, and counteraction could produce serious unintended consequences that would significantly increase all of these costs and lead, potentially, to all-out regional war.”
The decision to use military power, to put American lives on the line and to make ourselves vulnerable to the unknowable consequences that war always brings, must never be made lightly. Certainly, such a profound decision must never be subcontracted out to the leadership of another country. And while leaders who want to take the American people to war have an obligation to be honest and forthright, citizens have an equal obligation to educate themselves as well as possible about its potential risks and costs.
It is, after all, our sons and daughters, and those of our friends and neighbors, who will be asked to carry out that policy.
– Jay Bookman
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
677 comments Add your comment
Erwin's cat
September 25th, 2012
3:46 pm
JHM
from the story it was a long and hard journey to get her to China…Funny (sorta) how it was bought and where it ultimately ended up and how it’s being used now compared to the floating casino it was originally intended….I’d have to believe it is now what it was always intended to be
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
September 25th, 2012
3:46 pm
Obama wants regular football refs back. Fox Headline: Obama Wants To Fire Workers And Replace Them With Union Thugs
Heh, heh, heh.
skydog
September 25th, 2012
3:47 pm
I hear you and the problem Kam. My industry, construction, used to fight safety polices tooth and nail because they were expensive. After years of paying million dollar law suits they relented and the industry is better by far.
The owners are so insulated from reality it will take a player getting killed for them to do anything. And then it won`t be for the player, but the $$$$.
There are reports that 1 billion dollars changed hand last night due to the bad call ($150,000,000 Vegas)
Since this is nothing off of the owners hide, they don`t care.
Eminent Domain their azz.
Joe Hussein Mama
September 25th, 2012
3:47 pm
Gilligan! Drop those coconuts!
–Mitt Romney
–clattering, clunking noises–
–Paul Ryan
getalife
September 25th, 2012
3:48 pm
jm,
Stand up for the greedy NFL owners.
You are slipping.
Joe Hussein Mama
September 25th, 2012
3:51 pm
E. Cat — “from the story it was a long and hard journey to get her to China…Funny (sorta) how it was bought and where it ultimately ended up and how it’s being used now compared to the floating casino it was originally intended….I’d have to believe it is now what it was always intended to be”
I understand that the Russians didn’t want to sell the Chinese the equipment to outfit her with arresting gear (the gadgetry that enables aircraft to make safe carrier landings without flying off the deck), so I’m not clear on whether or not she’s actually going to have aircraft assigned aboard or not. I suppose she could be equipped with helos, though, even if she can’t carry fighters, bombers or surveillance aircraft.
I expect if we got a good look at what kind of aircraft she’s got assigned, then we would have a good idea of what kind of role she will have in the Chinese Navy.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
September 25th, 2012
3:51 pm
skydog
My industry — new home construction — subbed out everything so the builders weren’t liable.
Erwin's cat
September 25th, 2012
3:53 pm
Stand up for the greedy NFL owners
I’ve heard that the refs compensation is @ $150k/yr and a lifetime $60k/yr pension…not bad for 6 mos of work…
skydog
September 25th, 2012
3:56 pm
Jay, can I borrow your press pass in the morning? I`ll go ask Author WTF?.
I have a pin stripped suit and a Clark Gable glue on mustache.
stands for decibels
September 25th, 2012
3:57 pm
Leave it to Amanda Marcotte to cut through the BS (i.e., Mitt’s dumb remarks about the need for windows that open on pressurized aircraft) and get to the important stuff.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/09/25/stupid-wife-jokes-are-sadly-the-least-stupid-thing-romney-has-said/
This is Romney trotting out a weird right wing talking point that has been pushed by folks like Rush Limbaugh since at least the Clinton era:
“Well we do provide care for people who don’t have insurance. If someone has a heart attack, they don’t sit in their apartment and die. We pick them up in an ambulance, and take them to the hospital, and give them care. And different states have different ways of providing for that care.”
This statement is idiotic coming from any random person, but it’s particularly stupid coming from someone whose wife has a chronic illness, as Ann Romney does. The notion that the only medical care people really need is the kind you get in emergency rooms should fold the second you give a moment’s thought to it. Does the E.R. have “emergency” chemo for your cancer? Do they have “emergency” insulin for you diabetes? Is Romney really saying that the “best” solution for any state is to let diabetics only get care if they go into a diabetic coma?
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
September 25th, 2012
3:59 pm
But in this case, employees are squaring off with an ownership that doesn’t pretend to be under financial duress. According to Forbes, the average NFL team is now worth $1.1 billion, up 7 percent over the previous year.
getalife
September 25th, 2012
4:01 pm
cat,
There ya go.
Attack the workers.
You are not slipping.
Grob Hahn
September 25th, 2012
4:01 pm
There is every possibility that initiating a genuine war with Iran will touch off a substantial uprising in the US. The reason for this is that the US has been avoiding the draft by screwing American servicepeople into extended and repeated tours. In addition, the US is putting people into the desert with guns who are not originally trained for it such as sailors. All of this to avoid a political career killing, but necessary draft. I say necessary because a war with Iran will not have Americans lining up to enlist. Even raiding the prisons will not be enough (likely less than 1/4 of all troops).
War with Iran means men and women will be drafted, there is numerically no other way. So who will it really serve? The families of the military personnel being sacrificed? Not likely.
Grobbbbbbbbbbb
getalife
September 25th, 2012
4:12 pm
They talked about this play all day on ESPN and the only ones that said they made the right call are the NFL.
skydog
September 25th, 2012
4:16 pm
…and the 4th and 30 call the play before was just as bad.
This is like a number going out on a Wall Street Street board and them not fixing it. Oh that blank number? It was a 5. Electricians are very expensive you know.
Erwin's cat
September 25th, 2012
4:22 pm
JHM…from what I can tell they just got a hull…no engines, electronics and props etc
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
September 25th, 2012
4:23 pm
The NFL owners will ruin their product rather than pony up and pay for quality.
Skyboxification of the sport, ticket/concession prices through the roof, pampered, pouty, players….
When will the fans say, enough is enough?
getalife
September 25th, 2012
4:25 pm
We have to play the Packers at Green Bay.
It will be enough for Saints and the refs.
Woodstock Mike
September 25th, 2012
4:32 pm
Socialism really working out great over in Spain!! I can picture Democrats doing the exact same thing here in America. It’s coming soon…
saywhat?
September 25th, 2012
4:32 pm
At least if Romney wins, and we DO go to war against Iran, our new commander in chief will make sure that all of fighter aircraft will have roll down windows and our submarines will be outfitted with screen doors.
Woodstock Mike
September 25th, 2012
4:33 pm
“War with Iran means men and women will be drafted, there is numerically no other way. So who will it really serve? The families of the military personnel being sacrificed? Not likely”
Ground troops are not as necessary in modern warfare. No draft coming unless we get invaded which isn’t possible.
skydog
September 25th, 2012
4:34 pm
ohuuu – them Packers is going to be double mad – getalife
0-4? There is salvation in the Falcon Nation get? We don`t ask for Gov`t ID to join.
getalife
September 25th, 2012
4:35 pm
Mike,
If it comes here it will be because of greed and the wealthy control all the wealth.
Nice job Mike.
TaxPayer
September 25th, 2012
4:37 pm
Are these power windows? – Mitt’s Musings from 50,000 ft.
getalife
September 25th, 2012
4:38 pm
sky,
We are the aint’s again. Brown sacks over our heads because we have the worst defense in football.
The Falcons look good this year. I hope the Falcons win it this year.
That Black Guy
September 25th, 2012
4:40 pm
They BOTH suck
September 25th, 2012
12:06 am
Fred
Not sure if you are interested, but Bro, TBG and myself are trying to meet up for a few beers in the next week or so.
_____________________________________________
AWWWWW MANNNNNNN! TBS, you know Fred gone get us arrested.
They BOTH suck
September 25th, 2012
4:41 pm
“Ground troops are not as necessary in modern warfare.”
Depends on the mission. If you just want to bomb Iran, of course we can do a lot of damage. Without boots on the ground or supporting of internal or other external boots on the ground, that will make regime change much more difficult.
All depends on the mission and long term goals if boots are necessary or not. Doesn’t mean the strategy will work regardless of boots or not, but boots are still an integral part of war fare.
They BOTH suck
September 25th, 2012
4:43 pm
TBG
What up? Look for the potential means of exit before sitting down and getting comfortable.
That Black Guy
September 25th, 2012
4:43 pm
Fred ™
September 25th, 2012
12:14 am
They BOTH suck
September 25th, 2012
12:06 am
Fred
Not sure if you are interested, but Bro, TBG and myself are trying to meet up for a few beers in the next week or so.
+++++++++++++++++++
Sure.
___________________________
Let me get my bail money together.
Fred, leave the brass knuckles at home.
skydog
September 25th, 2012
4:46 pm
get,
I respected the brown bags at the time. Our teams were just as bad and we had been doing it(bad) longer, but we sat there and let the whole world see how dumb we looked when it was 55-0 and Jerry Rice just scored again.
Y`all will be all right. The defense showed signs of life last Sunday. I was a (offshore fan last week) if you know what I mean?
getalife
September 25th, 2012
4:46 pm
Did y’all invite Jay?
They BOTH suck
September 25th, 2012
4:46 pm
Jay
Big favor. If you see this message, please send Fred my email address.
Thank you, kind sir.
Fred
Let me know if you get it so we can correspond off line as to where and when we will be meeting.
They BOTH suck
September 25th, 2012
4:47 pm
getalife
We have not, but we could.
Too bad, you are down on the bayou.
John 12202012 Birch
September 25th, 2012
4:49 pm
There was a bad intereference call on like 3rd and 5 on the previous Packer drive that led to the go ahead TD instead of a punt. Just another example of how unions are destroying America. BTW when will the American taxpayers get their money back from GM?
JamVet
September 25th, 2012
4:50 pm
When will the fans say, enough is enough?
This one has. It’s been years since I had more than the smallest passing interest.
The NFL blows. If it went away forever, I would be barely notice…
Jm
September 25th, 2012
4:51 pm
Getalife
I don’t care about the NFL
They BOTH suck
September 25th, 2012
4:51 pm
John Birch
When is the taxpayer getting the money back from the Iraq war that Wolfowitz claimed would cost 50B and most paid for by oil revenues?
getalife
September 25th, 2012
4:52 pm
skydog,
Time to rebuild.
Our players have grey hair.
Even Brees is having a bad year because our receivers drop the ball.
Joe Hussein Mama
September 25th, 2012
4:53 pm
E. Cat — “JHM…from what I can tell they just got a hull…no engines, electronics and props etc”
That’s what they bought, but they’ve outfitted her — enough for sea trials — since then. She was out to sea back last June IIRC. She was spotted by some kind of commercial landsat and a picture of her way out in the middle of nowhere made the rounds of the internet.
skydog
September 25th, 2012
4:55 pm
Well get, you could have Bobby Herbet and there would not be any balls to drop.
getalife
September 25th, 2012
4:55 pm
“Too bad, you are down on the bayou.”
JamVet and Bruno would go if there was music.
Perhaps skydog’s next gig.
Joe Hussein Mama
September 25th, 2012
4:55 pm
Mike — “Ground troops are not as necessary in modern warfare. No draft coming unless we get invaded which isn’t possible.”
If your objective is to take and hold territory, you can’t do it without boots on the ground.
b-troll
September 25th, 2012
5:00 pm
Georgians: send your kid to GA Tech. Period.
Which colleges help grads snare top salaries?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/which-colleges-help-grads-snare-top-salaries-2012-09-25-121034742?link=SM_hp_ls1e
Among many folks who fixate on big-name northeastern liberal-arts schools, the Georgia Institute of Technology flies under the reputational radar. Even its president, G.P. Peterson, goes by the unassuming, guy-next-door nickname of “Bud.” But based on our Payback Score, the school deserves a higher profile — and some bragging rights. After all, it’s offering the best academic deal in America.
saywhat?
September 25th, 2012
5:01 pm
“If your objective is to take and hold territory, you can’t do it without boots on the ground”
__________________________________________
Sure you can. With tax cuts!
skydog
September 25th, 2012
5:06 pm
Yeah Great Idea Get,
Fred, alcohol, 5 or 6 smart azzes egging him on and a 800 watt sound system. What could go wrong?
Let`s pick a community without a SWAT team.
getalife
September 25th, 2012
5:10 pm
skydog,
Make sure to get the video and they all have to do three shots of Jager
weetamoe
September 25th, 2012
5:13 pm
Obama rang the Pavlovian bell with his disingenuous remark about *if Governor Romney is suggesting…* though there was nothing in Romney’s remarks that one could honestly interpret as a desire for war. However, if you are not appalled by the astonishing ignorance revealed in Obama’s address to the UN , then we are truly in an emperor’s new clothes* nightmare.
Jm
September 25th, 2012
5:13 pm
Ralph Nader: Obama is a war criminal
Run Nader run
Joe Hussein Mama
September 25th, 2012
5:14 pm
saywhat? — “Sure you can. With tax cuts!”
LMAO
They BOTH suck
September 25th, 2012
5:15 pm
To make it interesting, Nader should run.
Romney might need all the help he can get.
skydog
September 25th, 2012
5:15 pm
SWAT teams even provide air footage get.
My money is on Fred during the hostage negotiations. Surely Mr Digets and LT Tom will come to our rescue.
They BOTH suck
September 25th, 2012
5:18 pm
Jm
Email Romney and Ryan some debate tips. Appears they both probably need a knockout to win this things.
Halftrack
September 25th, 2012
5:18 pm
I would believe a guy that said he wanted to wipe Israel off the map and do damage to the U.S. as well. We cannot ignore such a person. History will only repeat itself. Obummer’s policies are only appeasement policies that enable our enemies to take higher risks everyday. Obummer’s administration doesn’t know a terrorist attack from a hole in the ground. Go figure?
They BOTH suck
September 25th, 2012
5:18 pm
thing
tireofit
September 25th, 2012
5:19 pm
b-troll
September 25th, 2012
5:00 pm
Georgians: send your kid to GA Tech. Period.
Which colleges help grads snare top salaries?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/which-colleges-help-grads-snare-top-salaries-2012-09-25-121034742?link=SM_hp_ls1e
Among many folks who fixate on big-name northeastern liberal-arts schools, the Georgia Institute of Technology flies under the reputational radar. Even its president, G.P. Peterson, goes by the unassuming, guy-next-door nickname of “Bud.” But based on our Payback Score, the school deserves a higher profile — and some bragging rights. After all, it’s offering the best academic deal in America.
++
So true, my son graduated a year and a half ago. He had a job in December before he graduated. He is living in Austin, TX and has a great job. GT degree and a high GPA and you are golden.
Common Freaking Sense isn't very Common
September 25th, 2012
5:20 pm
Jay
If you keep this thread up much longer NOBODY will be sober.
It’s happy hour yanno.
SONS OF CONFEDERATE VETERANS
JamVet
September 25th, 2012
5:26 pm
Ralph Nader: Obama is a war criminal
Yep. Four year old news.
Ralph Nader is not running this time but supports Rocky Anderson. As do I.
The only mayor of a major American city who called for the impeachment of George Bush.
JKL2
September 25th, 2012
5:27 pm
How many war’s do you have to start before they take away your Nobel Peace Prize?
Old Goober
September 25th, 2012
5:29 pm
I’ll help underwrite any trip that skydog takes. I live about 1/3 mile from that BBQ joint he plays at in Roswell, and I could clearly hear the “music” from my back yard without spending a penny.
Orange12
September 25th, 2012
5:34 pm
“The NFL blows. If it went away forever, I would be barely notice…”
Concur, but where would the “blue chippers” go after college ball?
JamVet
September 25th, 2012
5:38 pm
Concur, but where would the “blue chippers” go after college ball?
Good question.
Maybe like tens of thousands of other students, they should have applied themselves to learned something employable, especially as they were on full scholarships! (And many do…)
Rocky Anderson has stated that Obama is “the least deserving recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in the history of the Nobel Peace Prize.”
Damn straight and a blight on that prestigious organization…
DannyX
September 25th, 2012
5:39 pm
“Concur, but where would the “blue chippers” go after college ball?”
Hold on there Orange12…..
Are you saying you support socialist college football over the capitalist professional league?
Orange21 is a big government loving socialist.
getalife
September 25th, 2012
5:39 pm
BBQ, music, bloggers and booze.
Sounds like a party.
They BOTH suck
September 25th, 2012
5:41 pm
“Orange21 is a big government loving socialist.”
There are many of them. They are just unwilling to admit it. All depends of how you define big government and which program as to when they cry socialism or promote it
getalife
September 25th, 2012
5:42 pm
The salary cap is wealth distribution and socialism builds those stadiums.
JamVet
September 25th, 2012
5:44 pm
You want real socialism?
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/12/3/678134/the-history-of-baseball-s
getalife
September 25th, 2012
5:49 pm
trump sued the NFL for antitrust and the owners ended up getting one dollar.
Then his USFL folded because the owners listened to trump.
Fatal error.
Welcome to the Occupation
September 25th, 2012
5:51 pm
By the way, if kayaker is still around, you might want to reconsider your scornful remarks above about a “liberal lovefest” over the ability to live with an Iran with nukes, as this is hardly what I’d call a liberal lovefest when by all accounts it is the overwhelming consensus within Israel as well, namely of large sections of the security apparatus and military.
skydog
September 25th, 2012
5:51 pm
Old Goober — Come on down some night Gobber. We got a tambourine with your name on it. Last Fri. a mystery harmonica player got up. The man could play.
Jay
September 25th, 2012
5:52 pm
“Rocky Anderson has stated that Obama is “the least deserving recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in the history of the Nobel Peace Prize.”
I’d be tempted to agree with that sentiment, except for two words: Yasser Arafat.
Jay
September 25th, 2012
5:53 pm
Oh, and sheets!
Common Freaking Sense isn't very Common
September 25th, 2012
5:55 pm
Liberal Media Sheets LOL
Goin' Down
September 25th, 2012
5:56 pm
Have to agree with Jay at 5:52……Yasser the Disaster.
Fact
September 25th, 2012
6:11 pm
Bookman is a joke. Four Americans died from Obama’s neglect. Between 35 and 45 people have died as a result of the protests. Maybe Obama considers them “bumps in the road.”
That Black Guy
September 25th, 2012
7:11 pm
They BOTH suck
September 25th, 2012
4:43 pm
TBG
What up? Look for the potential means of exit before sitting down and getting comfortable.
_________________________
Good idea.
But I just entered “Free at Last” bailbonds into speed dial just in case.
independent thinker
September 25th, 2012
10:19 pm
In 1981 Israel blew up and destroyed the Iraqi nuclear reactor after Iran attempted to do so. Iranians were very appreciative. Uncle Ronnie protested and backed a UN resolution condemning Israel. In the 1990 and 2003 Iraqi wars there was no threat of Iraqi nuclear weapons to US troops due to Israel.
Now, today, the current government in Iraq has the gall to ask Israel to pay sanctions for the destroyed reactor that Israel blew up based on that UN resolution condemning Israel.. Go figure. Only in the Middle East!
lovelyliz
September 26th, 2012
10:53 am
As long as the military industrial complex can engorge itself at the tax payer$ trough at the expense of the lives of our soldier and innocent Iranian men, women and children, what’s the downside for the chickenhawks?