Economic confidence jumps … because of Dem convention?

Today’s Gallup tracking poll reports that Barack Obama’s lead over Mitt Romney has grown slightly, from five to six percentage points. Obama’s job approval is also up by six percentage points from a week ago.

But that’s not the most interesting tidbit from Gallup today.

This is:

“PRINCETON, NJ — The U.S. Gallup Economic Confidence Index surged to -18 for the week ending Sept. 9, up 11 points from -29 the prior week. This puts the index near the high point for the year after 2 ½ months when, weighed down by continued high unemployment, the index had languished well below -20.”

Gallup Economic Confidence Index -- Weekly Averages, 2012

According to Gallup, that 11-point jump represents the biggest one-week jump in the more than four years that the question has been asked. The previous biggest jump came after the announcement that Osama bin Laden had been killed.

So what accounts for this sudden leap of optimism?

“It appears that the spark for the dramatic rise in Americans’ economic confidence last week was the Democratic National Convention. A review of Gallup’s nightly tracking results shows that the index was consistently near or below -25 each night in late August and early September, but then sharply improved on Sept. 4, the first night of the convention, to -18.

Confidence then held at or near -18 through Sunday, despite the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ mixed August unemployment report Friday morning showing continued weak jobs growth.”

Gallup Economic Confidence Index -- Recent Weekly Averages by Party ID, August-September 2012

Political analysts have long believed that candidates who preach optimism will outperform those who push pessimism, and it’s hard to imagine a better confirmation of that theory than these Gallup numbers. For example, here’s Vice President Joe Biden in his convention speech:

“In the face of the deepest economic crisis in our lifetimes– this nation proved itself. We’re as worthy as any generation that has gone before us. The same grit, the same determination, the same courage, that has always defined what it’s meant to be an American—is in you.

We’re on a mission to move this nation forward—from doubt and downturn, to promise and prosperity. A mission we will continue and a mission we will complete.”

And here’s his counterpart Paul Ryan last weekend:

“I think President Obama has placed us on a path to decline. Four budgets, $4 trillion deficits, 23 million people struggling to find work, the highest poverty rates in a generation, nearly one out of six Americans in poverty….”

One approach seems to be resonating. The other, not so much.

– Jay Bookman

219 comments Add your comment

Oscar

September 11th, 2012
1:55 pm

Oscar

September 11th, 2012
1:56 pm

So what’s not to be optimistic about??

Oscar

September 11th, 2012
1:56 pm

It’s a great county, and will grow and be even better in the future.

Keep Up the Good Fight!

September 11th, 2012
2:02 pm

The path for decline was put in place years before Obama. The hope is that we will continue to change from those policies of tax cuts without reason or rationality and continue policies that are good for the real growth of this country’s citizens and not just the 1%.

moonbat betty

September 11th, 2012
2:03 pm

By November, the economy will be in complete recovery.

Bank it!

getalife

September 11th, 2012
2:03 pm

We could use some economic certainty but the gop are still refusing to help after their collapse.

Germany brought up this fact today but they caused the EU to use austerity and most countries there are back in a recession.

Mr. Snarky

September 11th, 2012
2:05 pm

Life is good.

moonbat betty

September 11th, 2012
2:05 pm

The economy is booming because Obama is buying up FaceBook stock.

ragnar danneskjold

September 11th, 2012
2:05 pm

Perhaps consumer optimism arises because – Jan 2013 – we are facing the largest tax increase in the history of the world? Maybe the consumer optimism arises because of the massive cuts in defense that will arise from the looming sequesters, and the foreseeable layoffs in the defense industry? Leftist logic.

Perhaps consumer confidence jumps as the Obama convention bounce diminishes?

Joe Hussein Mama

September 11th, 2012
2:07 pm

Cue high-pitched Republican SQUEEEEEEEEEEEEE noise.

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

September 11th, 2012
2:10 pm

Political analysts have long believed that candidates who preach optimism will outperform those who push pessimism, and it’s hard to imagine a better confirmation of that theory than these Gallup numbers.

Appropriate line from last night’s episode of Two Broke Girls — “Scaring people into participation is not success, it’s Scientology.”

moonbat betty

September 11th, 2012
2:10 pm

The economy is booming from the green energy bubble.

Towncrier

September 11th, 2012
2:11 pm

Since Jay often makes reference to polls as a springboard for his columns, and it has been alleged that most polls are liberally biased, can anyone point me to a poll that has oversampled Republican respondents so that there were more Republicans surveyed than Democrats (which should happen since there is only [I have read] about a 3-4% difference in the number of party members)? Also, can anyone point me to a poll in which independents are oversampled in a similar manner? Thanks.

getalife

September 11th, 2012
2:11 pm

Economists predict we gain 12 million jobs in our President’s second term if the gop does not screw it up. This is the only certainty we will get.

I think if the gop stop the obstruction and start investing in America, the number would be higher but doubt they will.

Wally

September 11th, 2012
2:12 pm

If they were looking for certainty on how the next four years will go, a mix of Todd Akin and both conventions at least gives you an idea on how either party will handle messaging and marketing. And if your goal is to see who can sell themselves and their policies best, I imagine we have a clear sign of who does it better.

You don’t have to like it, but the choice in those regards are clear. Whether it translates into votes is a whole other matter.

moonbat betty

September 11th, 2012
2:12 pm

Oh yeah,

and pray for the teachers of Chicago.

King of Wishful Thinking

September 11th, 2012
2:14 pm

If he continues to grow a backbone and call out Republicans for their hypocrisy and obstructionism, that lead will continue to widen.

getalife

September 11th, 2012
2:14 pm

moonbat,

That is the goal but investors have not created the green energy bubble yet.

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

September 11th, 2012
2:17 pm

That is the goal but investors have not created the green energy bubble yet.

How about strong steady growth (and if it’s slow, I’ll can live with that) and do away with the bubble/burst cycle?

moonbat betty

September 11th, 2012
2:18 pm

“That is the goal but investors have not created the green energy bubble yet.”

By investors, you mean government, correct?

Mr_B

September 11th, 2012
2:22 pm

I suspect that for at least some Americans, the upswing in the President’s poll standing is reflected in economic optimism. It’s starting to look like maybe there will be enough sanity left in Washington to prevent the Republicans from driving us into another depression.

Keep Up the Good Fight!

September 11th, 2012
2:23 pm

betty apparently does not comprehend that investors partnered with govt loans are driving the green energy effort. You know, the type of thing that government should be doing.

Class of '98

September 11th, 2012
2:27 pm

I agree Jay. Because polls indicate Obama has a slight lead, and has increased his percentage lead in states that he will carry anyway, like California and New York, it means he most certainly will easily win the electoral college.

That said, if you are a Democrat voter in Ohio, Florida, Colorado and North Carolina, don’t worry about going to the polls on November 6th. Just stay home and bask in the glow of victory.

Congrats!! You won!! And spread the word!! Tell all your liberal friends there is no need to vote!! Obama won!! Yay!!

Towncrier

September 11th, 2012
2:27 pm

“Political analysts have long believed that candidates who preach optimism will outperform those who push pessimism…”

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t “optimism” “preached” four years ago? And were are we now? You also forgot to include this information from Gallup, Jay:

“Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Sept. 3-9, 2012, with a random sample of 3,330 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.”

No break down of the 3 voting groups identified on one of their charts in terms of percentage? I suppose we should just “trust” Gallup (although they were second to last in overall accuracy in 2008 according to an analysis I saw recently).

“It remains to be seen whether the gains made last week will carry into the fall, or whether -18 will again prove an impenetrable boundary for the Gallup Economic Confidence Index to surpass, at least by much, as long as the nation’s employment picture remains weak.”

Well, thank you for that much of a disclaimer, Gallup.

Butch Cassidy (I)

September 11th, 2012
2:28 pm

Hey, maybe the Romney/Ryan team can try a new approach:

Do you want to go back to using your house as an ATM for instant gratification? Or, do you want to wait for this President to lay a solid foundation devoid of econominc bubbles? The choice couldn’t be more clear, vote Romney/Ryan for instant gratification! :)

jewcowboy

September 11th, 2012
2:29 pm

A great quote which quite succinctly, though unintended, sums up the approach of the two different political conventions.

“Truth is, I’ll never know all there is to know about you just as you will never know all there is to know about me. Humans are by nature too complicated to be understood fully. So, we can choose either to approach our fellow human beings with suspicion or to approach them with an open mind, a dash of optimism and a great deal of candour.” ~ Tom Hanks

Newby

September 11th, 2012
2:29 pm

Towncrier – don’t know if this will help. Have you looked at the “methodology” link on the 538 website?

Newby

September 11th, 2012
2:30 pm

Towncrier – also the “rasmussen” link on the electoral-vote website.

JamVet

September 11th, 2012
2:30 pm

On day two of Obama’s second term, here is to hoping that the entire Limbaugh-led GOP fails! (Which is one more day than they gave him in his first term…)

Joe Hussein Mama

September 11th, 2012
2:30 pm

Towncrier — “Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t “optimism” “preached” four years ago? And were are we now?”

Home prices are leveling off, the stock market is still trending upward, jobs are (slowly) being added and there aren’t front-page stories on a nearly daily basis about what bank or financial institution is about to collapse.

Thomas

September 11th, 2012
2:30 pm

a new Washington Post-ABC News poll of likely voters out today puts the race dead even, right back where it was before the conventions, with Obama at 49 percent and Gov. Mitt Romney at 48 percent

Uh no- market is ready, as I know you are, for QEIII- hell I am waiting for QEIV and V- just like the Rocky movies one can never have enough

Class of '98

September 11th, 2012
2:31 pm

“investors have not created the green energy bubble yet.”

I’m not John Locke, but that MAY be because the cost of the technology far outweighs the consumer demand.

GM, for instance, is losing $49,000 per Chevy Volt sold. We are a looooooooong way from any green energy bubble.

But those are just facts. Go ahead and disregard them.

Thomas

September 11th, 2012
2:32 pm

“You know, the type of thing that government should be doing”

The gov’t should be “partnering” with private enterprise in business-

ok- seen enough of the I have nothing to do but blog all day crowd- why wouldn’t they be in favor of larger gov’t as it works for those who sit and watch.

getalife

September 11th, 2012
2:33 pm

“Conservative Obstruction Cost Us 2 Million Jobs So Far This Year”:

http://www.ourfuture.org/node/74838

Add the costs of quantitative easing the fed was forced to do and would like to see a column about the total costs of the gop strategy to get our President after their collapse.

Mick

September 11th, 2012
2:34 pm

**GM, for instance, is losing $49,000 per Chevy Volt sold**

Got any solid facts to back that up?

jewcowboy

September 11th, 2012
2:34 pm

“I’m not John Locke, but that MAY be because the cost of the technology far outweighs the consumer demand. ”

Yeah…and prices never go down on technology.

http://www.bionicworks.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/1428274497_82646b0caf_o.jpg

getalife

September 11th, 2012
2:35 pm

“GM, for instance, is losing $49,000 per Chevy Volt sold. We are a looooooooong way from any green energy bubble” drudgey spam

Good to see our military is going green and ordered a huge order for Volts.

All we need is the investors to join us..

Paul

September 11th, 2012
2:35 pm

Economic confidence determined by impressions. But that’s the reality.

Today’s business section where I live: 18% of firms expect to do lots of hiring this coming year. Wasn’t dependent upon who’s going to be president. The cycle moves on.

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

September 11th, 2012
2:37 pm

The gov’t should be “partnering” with private enterprise in business-

NASA is a good example of this.

Miniaturization, medical monitoring devices, WD 40 all came out of the government’s involvement in exploring space.

Butch Cassidy (I)

September 11th, 2012
2:38 pm

Paul – “Today’s business section where I live: 18% of firms expect to do lots of hiring this coming year. Wasn’t dependent upon who’s going to be president.”

WHAT??? You mean the laws of supply and demand still exist? That’s not what Mitt told me.

getalife

September 11th, 2012
2:38 pm

“The gov’t should be “partnering” with private enterprise in business- ”

They are called gse’s like Freddie and Fannie.

Towncrier

September 11th, 2012
2:38 pm

“Towncrier – don’t know if this will help. Have you looked at the “methodology” link on the 538 website?”

Just did. Thanks. I have been reading a number of “methodology” statements lately and what I don’t see addressed is consistent oversampling of one constituency by one or more polling organization. I am not an expert in statistics, but I feel fairly sure that the difference in the number of Democrats versus Republicans is small enough that there should be an occasional poll where the latter where sampled more than the former. If I am right and this does not happen, then I would say it is problematic. I am hoping someone here will point me to an example of what I am looking for.

Paul

September 11th, 2012
2:39 pm

Pointing out how bad the other guy is is not an effective strategy to prove to voters you’d be any better. If you’re making the point people voted for nonspecific Hope and Change, but you offer no concrete proposals, you are, in effect, asking them to vote for Hope and Change again. Right after you made the point it didn’t work before.

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

September 11th, 2012
2:39 pm

**GM, for instance, is losing $49,000 per Chevy Volt sold**

Got any solid facts to back that up?

It’s on drudgey.

Mick

September 11th, 2012
2:40 pm

Paul

Also, when I was in texas in june and every other state across the nation, road construction is going full tilt and most look to be long term projects. Just a nudge more of infrastructure work might prime the economy for some decent employment gains. What party is it again that seems intent on blocking that?

St Simons - we're on Island time

September 11th, 2012
2:41 pm

maybe the convention, idk about those soft issues –

but among accountants, its becoming a consensus that Q3 statements
in about 3 weeks, are not going to be too bad, in some cases
improved, and Q3 is usually the weakest quarter for those on J-D
fiscal years. I can report that from this area, which is admittedly
anecdotal and tourist-infused.

Butch Cassidy (I)

September 11th, 2012
2:41 pm

Paul – “Pointing out how bad the other guy is is not an effective strategy to prove to voters you’d be any better.”

Neither is promising to repeal Obamacare, then saying you would keep parts of it that people like, and then denying you said that and go back to promising to repeal Obamacare. All within a 24 hour window.

Keep Up the Good Fight!

September 11th, 2012
2:41 pm

Mick, obviously if you invest Ten million dollars in manufacturing equipment to manufacture, oh lets say, straws and at first you only manufacture 10,000 straws why you have lost $1,000 a straw. Why you never look over the lifetime costs or consider a breakeven point. :lol:

But this may also help: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/driveon/post/2012/09/GM-denies-losses-of-49000-on-every-Chevrolet-Volt-70000080/chevrolet-volt/70000080/1

Towncrier

September 11th, 2012
2:42 pm

“Home prices are leveling off, the stock market is still trending upward, jobs are (slowly) being added and there aren’t front-page stories on a nearly daily basis about what bank or financial institution is about to collapse.”

I do not feel optimistic, however you may feel. How much of a negative event would be needed to push us into a depression, do you suppose?

Mary Elizabeth

September 11th, 2012
2:42 pm

Hopefully, Americans are becoming weary of the self-oriented cynicism of the past few decades and are hungry to experience, once again, hope and faith in this nation, and in our common destiny, as demonstrated in the leadership styles of FDR, JFK, Reagan, and Obama. Being defeatist is anti-life. Something deep within the resources of the living desires that which confirms life.

East Lake Ira

September 11th, 2012
2:43 pm

It was Bubba’s speech.

For those that watched to those that just heard about it, it made them believe Obama would indeed win and that is a net positive for the majority of Americans.

The great unwashed, i.e. the political agnostics, don’t like the hate from the GOP. They are only now starting to pay attention.

Give Bubba his due.

Sorry if this rehashes another’s ramblings… hit and miss here lately…

Joe Hussein Mama

September 11th, 2012
2:44 pm

Towncrier — “I have been reading a number of “methodology” statements lately and what I don’t see addressed is consistent oversampling of one constituency by one or more polling organization.”

Define “oversampling” in the context in which you mean to use it. please.

” I am not an expert in statistics, but I feel fairly sure that the difference in the number of Democrats versus Republicans is small enough that there should be an occasional poll where the latter where sampled more than the former.”

Why? Why would you expect that and what do you believe it would demonstrate if you saw that?

“If I am right and this does not happen, then I would say it is problematic.”

Based on what, please?

getalife

September 11th, 2012
2:44 pm

Perhaps Paul can layout all romney’s positions so we will have a clear choice to our President’s positions.

Butch Cassidy (I)

September 11th, 2012
2:44 pm

Towncrier – ” How much of a negative event would be needed to push us into a depression, do you suppose?”

Full implementation of the Romney/Ryan plan (whatever it may be).

Towncrier

September 11th, 2012
2:45 pm

Joe Hussein Mama

September 11th, 2012
2:48 pm

Towncrier — “I do not feel optimistic, however you may feel.”

I’m not sunshine and unicorns, but I’m also not terribly depressed, gloomy and critical of the nation’s current economic situation, as many conservatives seem to be. When bemoaning our current fiscal situation and painting it in dire terms as they often do, our conservative friends seem to forget just how terrifying our economic situation actually was in late 2008 and much of 2009.

We’re not in that pickle any more. Things aren’t *great,* but I think we can agree that they are to some degree better than they *were* at that time.

“How much of a negative event would be needed to push us into a depression, do you suppose?”

Why do you ask? Are you looking to cause such an event? :D

Jay

September 11th, 2012
2:48 pm

Towncrier, what’s the basis of your claim that Democrats are overrepresented in all these polls (apparently even including Rasmussen)? Whatever baseline you’re using for the “proper” ratio of Republicans to Democrats must have derived from polls as well, correct?

In addition, how do you account for the fact that these same polls were accurately reporting the likelihood of a huge GOP wave in 2010, and were reporting a much closer race between Obama and Romney earlier this year? Are you seriously proposing a broad conspiracy among competing polling outfits ranging from Gallup to Rasmussen to Fox to CNN — but apparently not including the WashPost — to “fix” the numbers?

Because frankly, that’s just nuts.

getalife

September 11th, 2012
2:48 pm

Mary Elizabeth,

I hope so too. There was a crescendo of cynicism, lies and mindless deflection of blame until one man stood up and told the truth.

Class of '98

September 11th, 2012
2:48 pm

“It’s on drudgey”

Oh my mistake. I was wrong, green energy is SOOOOO popular!! I see Chevy Volts everywhere I go!! I can’t pull into a parking lot anywhere without seeing hundreds, nay, THOUSANDS of them!! Do you know anyone who DOESN’T own a Chevy Volt?!? I sure don’t!!

How could I have been so wrong about the popularity of green energy?!?! It’s all the rage!!! GM is clearly, OBVIOUSLY profiting billions and billions of dollars on this WILDLY successful car!!

JKL2

September 11th, 2012
2:49 pm

oscar- So what’s not to be optimistic about??

Four budgets, $4 trillion deficits, 23 million people struggling to find work, the highest poverty rates in a generation, nearly one out of six Americans in poverty….”

Mick

September 11th, 2012
2:49 pm

keep

Thanks, a little perspective never hurt anyone…

b-troll

September 11th, 2012
2:50 pm

promises promises “you’ll feel it” – Bill Clinton

but there’s this slight problem. that debt and downgrade thingy

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/11/us-markets-rating-usa-idUSBRE88A0R420120911

Newby

September 11th, 2012
2:50 pm

Class of 98 – your “sarcasm” switch is stuck…

Towncrier

September 11th, 2012
2:53 pm

“Why? Why would you expect that and what do you believe it would demonstrate if you saw that?”

Simple. Let’s say there was a sample size of 1000 and in reality there were 50% of all voters were Democrats and 50% Republican. On an given day, in a random survey, you might have more Democratic respondents than Republican (say, 530-470) and vice versa (say, 470-530). That is just the way the dice roll.

Given that the difference in number of party members is only 3-4%, one should then expect to see on occasion a poll in which more Republicans were surveyed than Democrats (especially since I have seen polls in which there was a 11% oversampling of Democrats). If that NEVER happens, then this suggests to me that there is a problem. So I am looking for at least one instance in which Republicans were oversampled.

DannyX

September 11th, 2012
2:53 pm

” I am hoping someone here will point me to an example of what I am looking for.”

Party identification poll average:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/party-identification

Note the only pollster that gives the edge to Republicans is Rasmussen. Must be another liberal conspiracy! Everyone is out to get the Republicans.

b-troll

September 11th, 2012
2:56 pm

The 2013 debt hangover is going to suck.

Nancy

September 11th, 2012
2:57 pm

The dust is beginning to settle and it appears that Obama is headed toward a second term. So here’s egg in your face, Mitch McConnell. The Pubs have only themselves to blame. Most of them, as Lawrence O’Donnell would say, “Are Batcrap Crazy.”

Welcome to the Occupation

September 11th, 2012
2:57 pm

I’m watching with interest whether Jay shows any interest in what’s going on in Chicago.

Isn’t it interesting, all of you right wingers, that your guy Paul Ryan has said there’s no daylight between him and Rahm Emanuel. And considering he’s Obama’s ex-boss, what does that mean for you? Looks like either Ryan is palling around with Kenyan socialists or we’re gonna have to radically rethink our categories, aren’t we?

Donovan

September 11th, 2012
3:00 pm

Bookman fails to give you little goose-steppers the whole story about Gallup. Outside of the proposition that polls can be manipulated to show just what you want the polls to reflect from a corrupted point of view, Gallup had a run in with David Axelrod not too long ago.

It seems that Gallup was showing unfavorable ratings for Obama this past summer and the man behind the soiled curtain, David Axlerod, threatened Gallup in an email correspondence warning of a DOJ investigation and lawsuit. On August 22, 2012 DOJ cited possible infractions of the False Claims Act against Gallup.

This typical Chicago thug-style tactic has worked well on behalf of the Obama administration in cowing Gallup’s research.

Bookman uses reference pieces from stooge left wing sources like the New York Times, LA Times, Miami Herald, and Washington Post all the time. Now that I have informed you “progressives” of the “on board” Gallup poll people, let’s hear the myrmidon carping.

DannyX

September 11th, 2012
3:01 pm

“Let’s say there was a sample size of 1000 and in reality there were 50% of all voters were Democrats and 50% Republican.”

That is far from reality. In fact most of the party identity polls show more people identify as independent, a trend that has been growing.

It is the economy, stupid!

September 11th, 2012
3:01 pm

The American electorate is looking for solutions to the current economic mess that will improve the financial prospects of their family, not attack ads that simply state the obvious . Bill Clinton’s speech was significant because it framed the context in which we find ourselves and reminded everyone that there are no “quick fixes” to the problems that confront us, but choices must be made.
Romney has to be the shiftiest presidential candidate since Nixon, and his economic platform seems to consist of taxing the middle class, which consumes around 70% of the nation’s goods and services, so that the economic elite can enjoy a huge tax cut. This isn’t an economic revival plan, it is a prescription for double dip recession. I much prefer Obama’s emphasis on repairing the nation’s much neglected infrastructure as a way of ‘priming the economic pump” .
I think that the jump in economic confidence represents the judgment of the electorate that their self interest lies with a continuation of the Obama Administration.

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

September 11th, 2012
3:02 pm

Gallup had a run in with David Axelrod not too long ago.

Posted here many times.

Re-posted drudgey spam

b-troll

September 11th, 2012
3:02 pm

Welcome – it means Paul Ryan is a reasonable person, unlike the vilified Randian liberals portray him as

Towncrier

September 11th, 2012
3:02 pm

“Note the only pollster that gives the edge to Republicans is Rasmussen. ”

That is not what I am looking for, but thanks for the link. What is interesting in the link you provide is the immense variability between the party identification numbers (between 3 and 11 for D and R). That does not really inspire much confidence in the data, does it?

Paul

September 11th, 2012
3:05 pm

getalife

Sure. Be happy to.

Joe Hussein Mama

September 11th, 2012
3:06 pm

Towncrier — “Simple. Let’s say there was a sample size of 1000 and in reality there were 50% of all voters were Democrats and 50% Republican.”

That’s very nice, but statistics aren’t that neat.

“On an given day, in a random survey, you might have more Democratic respondents than Republican (say, 530-470) and vice versa (say, 470-530). That is just the way the dice roll.”

Okay.

“Given that the difference in number of party members is only 3-4%, one should then expect to see on occasion a poll in which more Republicans were surveyed than Democrats (especially since I have seen polls in which there was a 11% oversampling of Democrats). If that NEVER happens, then this suggests to me that there is a problem.”

What problem, specifically?

DannyX

September 11th, 2012
3:06 pm

“That does not really inspire much confidence in the data, does it?”

I think what you are looking for is one of those super secret Dick Morris polls that feed you the bias you are looking for.

H. E. Pennypacker

September 11th, 2012
3:07 pm

Donovan speaks of goosestepping, yet when I Googled his story, many right wing sites used his exact words like Chicago Thug style politics.

I also never found any evidence of an email showing a threat to a DOJ investigation. If you have such, please provide.

I love it that these articles have cropped up in the last week when polls are moving away from Governor Romney to spread doubt to the black helicopter crowd.

Goldie

September 11th, 2012
3:09 pm

“Political analysts have long believed that candidates who preach optimism will outperform those who push pessimism, ”

I do believe that is true, Jay — but I also believe that most American voters do not want to go back to the same failed economic policies that drove us right into that ditch 4 years ago! Too risky to put the Repubs back in the White House now!

:)

Butch Cassidy (I)

September 11th, 2012
3:10 pm

Class of 98 – ” I was wrong, green energy is SOOOOO popular!! I see Chevy Volts everywhere I go!!”

didi you count every Prius, Fit, Lexus, Highlander on the road as well?

Newby

September 11th, 2012
3:11 pm

“David Axlerod, threatened Gallup in an email correspondence”

Donovon – Link or lie?

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

September 11th, 2012
3:13 pm

Donovan speaks of goosestepping, yet when I Googled his story, many right wing sites used his exact words like Chicago Thug style politics

H. E. Pennypacker

No need to google.

Whenever you read something like that go here — http://www.drudgereport.com/

A one stop shopping spot for all things tin foil hat

Butch Cassidy (I)

September 11th, 2012
3:13 pm

Donovan – “David Axlerod, threatened Gallup in an email correspondence”

Oh good, then there will be actual evidence that you can share with us so that we can all join you in your poutrage.

Mary Elizabeth

September 11th, 2012
3:16 pm

getalife, 2:48 pm

“There was a crescendo of cynicism, lies and mindless deflection of blame until one man stood up and told the truth.”
—————————————————————————————-

Interesting, your response to my post, getalife. There have been many men (and women) who have “stood up and told the truth” throughout history. The first person I thought of – upon reading your response – was Jesus, who told truth that was life-giving. His consciousness contained too much truth for most to handle, then, but as a species, we seem to be moving toward the truths he shared two milleniums ago – because his examples of faith, hope, and love were life-affirming.

Btw, thanks for your support on another blog, recently. Appreciated by me!

Mark T

September 11th, 2012
3:20 pm

its 9/11 and we get an article about how Obama sends a tingle up Jays leg

Towncrier

September 11th, 2012
3:20 pm

“Towncrier, what’s the basis of your claim that Democrats are overrepresented in all these polls (apparently even including Rasmussen)?”

Do you not agree that over time, the sampling of each respective party members should approximate the actual ratio?

“Whatever baseline you’re using for the “proper” ratio of Republicans to Democrats must have derived from polls as well, correct?”

One would hope that these polls would include a MUCH larger sample size (say 10,000 or more) and be carefully vetted because of their importance to polling methodology . But if the link provided by DannyX @ 2:53 is any indication, the sample size is a paltry 1000.

“In addition, how do you account for the fact that these same polls were accurately reporting the likelihood of a huge GOP wave in 2010, and were reporting a much closer race between Obama and Romney earlier this year? Are you seriously proposing a broad conspiracy among competing polling outfits ranging from Gallup to Rasmussen to Fox to CNN — but apparently not including the WashPost — to “fix” the numbers?”

Not a “broad conspiracy” as you suggest, but some fudging here and there (I guess you think that is unimaginable). There may be a bigger gap between D and R than the 3-4% I was assuming (based on what I had read at a couple of places). It may also be true that there are now more people identifying themselves as Independents that either R or D. If that is true, then they should be the most sampled group (and not Democrats).

The fact that there is often great variability amongst the polls which should, in and of itself, give one pause in relying upon them too much (not to mention the times they have been proven wrong). I am merely providing an objection to your (and other opinion writers on both the left and right) seeming over reliance on polls. I mean, when you write something like “…and it’s hard to imagine a better confirmation of that theory than these Gallup numbers” then I think you are entering the hazy world of partisanship.

David Shivers

September 11th, 2012
3:22 pm

Smile (Joe Biden) and the world smiles with you. Cry (Paul Ryan) and you cry alone.

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

September 11th, 2012
3:23 pm

Butch Cassidy (I)

September 11th, 2012
3:24 pm

Mark T – “its 9/11 and we get an article about how Obama sends a tingle up Jays leg”

Geez, first throat cramming then mouth foaming and now you guys are after Jays tingling leg. Yikes!

HDB

September 11th, 2012
3:24 pm

Thomas

September 11th, 2012
2:32 pm

“The gov’t should be “partnering” with private enterprise in business- ”

…and what would you call the military-industrial complex if not a private/public partnership????

Towncrier

September 11th, 2012
3:27 pm

“I think what you are looking for is one of those super secret Dick Morris polls that feed you the bias you are looking for.”

Seeing I looked at your link at Huffington Post and responded, why the felt need for a snark? Are they not rather variable? Is it possible in reality for there to 28% Independents identified in one poll and 48% in the other? Or 0% undecided in one poll and 17% in another? I stand by my statement: “That does not really inspire much confidence in the data, does it?”

ByteMe - Got ilk?

September 11th, 2012
3:28 pm

But if the link provided by DannyX @ 2:53 is any indication, the sample size is a paltry 1000.

That’s why they poll regularly now instead of doing one giant poll. If you poll regularly with smaller samples, the trend is what you watch, because the MoE is large enough to create noise with a single data point. With a larger sample size, you reduce MoE and then can look at the single data point with more confidence.

Towncrier

September 11th, 2012
3:29 pm

“That is far from reality. In fact most of the party identity polls show more people identify as independent, a trend that has been growing.”

Of course. It was for illustration purposes only.

jewcowboy

September 11th, 2012
3:31 pm

“its 9/11 and we get an article about how Obama sends a tingle up Jays leg”

Well…then how about this one:

“The Deafness Before the Storm”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/11/opinion/the-bush-white-house-was-deaf-to-9-11-warnings.html?_r=1&hp

DannyX

September 11th, 2012
3:31 pm

“(not to mention the times they have been proven wrong).”

Gallup and most other pollsters are almost always within the margin of error. Real Clear Politics poll averages are almost always right on the money. What are your examples of the times they have been proven wrong?

Joe Hussein Mama

September 11th, 2012
3:33 pm

Towncrier — “Do you not agree that over time, the sampling of each respective party members should approximate the actual ratio?”

No. You appear to be engaging in the N = 1 Fallacy.

Each individual survey’s population must be randomized *within itself,* not with respect or regard to any previous (or future) survey. To suggest that any individual survey should be adjusted to take *another* survey into account is like saying that since you’ve recorded 10 ‘heads’ results in a coin toss, the next toss must almost certainly be ‘tails.’ It’s not, because each coin toss is independent of every other one — and the same’s true of surveys.

“One would hope that these polls would include a MUCH larger sample size (say 10,000 or more)”

Why? Why do you think that’s necessary?

“But if the link provided by DannyX @ 2:53 is any indication, the sample size is a paltry 1000.”

I’m not sure why you think this is a problem. Most surveys indicate their mathematically derived margins of error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size

Newby

September 11th, 2012
3:33 pm

Towncrier – look at 538’s 6/22 column “Calculating ‘House Effects’ of Polling Firms” – this may be what you’re looking for.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

b-troll

September 11th, 2012
3:35 pm

““its 9/11 and we get an article about how Obama sends a tingle up Jays leg”

Well…then how about this one:

“The Deafness Before the Storm””

And libs think cons are obsessed. That NYT piece has been posted over a dozen times today by libs. With a rebuttal over at Kyle’s.

Mark T

September 11th, 2012
3:35 pm

what about it…is that article suppose to honor the victims and heros of 9/11…stay classy libs

Union

September 11th, 2012
3:36 pm

i remember the days just a few years ago that you couldnt turn on a tv without people in tears about gas prices and unemployment.. now that both are actually higher.. seems to be a non issue in the media… wonder why?