A fresh poll of likely voters from CNN/ORC confirms what the tracking polls have been telling us, reporting a 52-46 point advantage for Barack Obama, up from a 48-48 percent tie a week earlier.
However, the poll also suggests that Obama isn’t the sole beneficiary of that bump, a fact that could have significant implications down ballot:
And here are the comparable numbers for the Republicans:
The demographic breakouts are also telling. Among likely voters 50 and younger, an impressive 60 percent have a favorable view of Democrats. Only 35 percent of those 50 and younger have a favorable view of Republicans. Just 15 percent of non-white voters view Republicans favorably, while 85 percent view Democrats that way.
In addition, the South is the only region in the country in which Republicans (51 percent favorable) are viewed more favorably than Democrats (45 percent). So if you’re 50 or older, white and live in Georgia, it’s tempting to look at the numbers above and dismiss them because they contradict everything that you see and hear in your daily life.
That doesn’t mean they aren’t real.
– Jay Bookman