‘No president…could fully repair the damage in just four years’

In his speech Wednesday, former President Bill Clinton stressed an important point to those who want to compare today’s economy to the challenges that he faced as president almost 20 years ago:

“The difference this time is purely in the circumstances. President Obama started with a much weaker economy than I did. Listen to me now. No president, no president — not me, not any of my predecessors — no one could have fully repaired all the damage that he found in just four years.”

Here is what that situation looks like when expressed in chart form.

Source: Calculated Risk

Source: Calculated Risk

Note that the current recovery has proceeded at almost exactly the same rate as the recovery from the 2001 recession, charted in the brown line above. The difference is that we find ourselves in a much, much bigger hole this time, and with major trouble in Europe and even China, we aren’t out of it yet.

AND ONE OTHER THING: Note the four lines that extend farthest to the right, meaning that these four economic downturns took the longest to reverse themselves. Moving from right to left, they occurred in 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2007. In other words, every recovery in the last 30 years has occurred more slowly than its predecessor. Economists can’t reach a consensus on why that is occurring, but the pattern is pretty apparent.

– Jay Bookman

287 comments Add your comment

King of Wishful Thinking

September 7th, 2012
2:19 pm

Graphs looks like fiber cables

N-GA

September 7th, 2012
2:20 pm

If you turn the chart upside down the cons will believe it!

FrankLeeDarling

September 7th, 2012
2:20 pm

FrankLeeDarling

September 7th, 2012
2:21 pm

Oh well, the hand that types fastest wins

King of Wishful Thinking

September 7th, 2012
2:21 pm

Which party is the party of job creation? 42M to 24M. I don’t know how the Republicans swear to be the party of business but they refuse to acknowledge the evidence in the numbers.

Lord Help Us

September 7th, 2012
2:22 pm

If the cons had been able to stop the bank bailout, stimulus, auto bailout and second stimulus, I am SURE the recovery would be complete by now…

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

September 7th, 2012
2:22 pm

Oooh, a chart. with pretty color lines and everything!

Mick

September 7th, 2012
2:24 pm

jay

That line made to much common sense but I would stake my life on it that if romney wins, guess who he’ll be blaming for the next four years???

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

September 7th, 2012
2:25 pm

drudgey spam posted in 30 posts.

Who wants the over?

Who wants the under?

0311/8541/5811/1811/1801

September 7th, 2012
2:27 pm

Graphs don’t elect presidents …………. voters do.

getalife

September 7th, 2012
2:28 pm

cons ignore facts and mindlessly post drugey like zombies.

So, the DHS says to get ready for the zombies after they lose again.

0311/8541/5811/1811/1801

September 7th, 2012
2:28 pm

To the American electorate: “If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.”

Peadawg

September 7th, 2012
2:28 pm

And I’m not quit ready to hand it back over to the GOP who got us in this current mess. 22 consecutive months of positive job growth is better than it used to be.

Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette

September 7th, 2012
2:28 pm

Look!

Something the GOP is good at!

Normal Free...Pro Human Rights Thug...And liking it!

September 7th, 2012
2:29 pm

Been away for awhile from downstairs…gotta work, But i noticed that the President is being blamed for the job numbers and on and on, so I ask again…what can the President do? Oh sure, he could start the Civilian Conservation camps like FDR did to put people to work…but wait! he’d need Congress to approve that, wouldn’t he? I guess he could nationalize businesses to keep jobs in country and demand hiring…but wait! he’d need Congress to approve that, wouldn’t he? I bet he could get on TV and demand that Corporations to hire, but wait! he’d need the co-operation of business to accomplish that, wouldn’t he? I know! He could start the Draft again to get people in the Military and back to work…no…he’d need Congress to approve that, wouldn’t he?

So tell me y’all, just exactly what can the man do all by himself to fix this problem…I really want to know.
What he really needs is co-operation from Congress in general and the GOP in particular.
If the GOP was really serious about jobs, they would work with the President, period.

DebbieDoRight - Say No! To Double Down On Trickle Down!

September 7th, 2012
2:30 pm

Some more clear and distinct choices:

Bette Midler — she starts singing at :59 :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbxxkwBQk_o

Rolling Stones:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymrDmFinSYo

getalife

September 7th, 2012
2:30 pm

drudgey oops,

And the DHS story is true.

Mick

September 7th, 2012
2:30 pm

0311

I would think that stopping a great depression and positive job growth for 22 months is getting the job done on any metric…

0311/8541/5811/1811/1801

September 7th, 2012
2:30 pm

DebbieDoRight - Say No! To Double Down On Trickle Down!

September 7th, 2012
2:32 pm

So, the DHS says to get ready for the zombies after they lose again.

And violence, and gun sales, and a run on porno, and a bunch of whinning like kids……

King of Wishful Thinking

September 7th, 2012
2:32 pm

The thing that irks me about the GoP is that they rather to the citizens of this country suffer so that the can blame it on the President. If tax cuts worked, jobs would be booming at the end of W’s term. Of course the Republicans claim they don’t know anyone by the name George Bush.

0311/8541/5811/1811/1801

September 7th, 2012
2:33 pm

12) 8.84% unemployment, $3.85 gasoline, $16 Trillion in debt, Food-stamp use a record 46.7 million in June

11) The Surpeme Court is just an “unelected group of people” (During summit with Canadian Prime Minister and Mexican President).

10) During a July campaign stop in Virginia referring to American businesses: “YOU DIDN’T BUILD THAT!”

9) “I suspect that most people in Cincinnati would acknowledge that I’VE TRIED REAL HARD ………. ” (Democrat House for two years and Senate for four).

7.99) To the American people regarding the Gulf Oil Crisis: ““I can’t suck it up with a straw”!

7) To the American people: “It’s absolutely not a tax increase !” http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/06/obama-campaign-its-a-penalty-not-a-tax-127721.html

6) To the American people: “Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this Presidency.”

5) To Larry King: “There has been a tendency by this (the Bush) administration to hide behind executive privilege.”

4) Speech to an Hispanic group: “With respect to the notion that I can just suspend deportations through executive order, that’s just not the case ………. ” (and then he did).

3) To the American people: “The private sector is doing just fine.” (but it isn’t).

2) Please pass to Vladimir: “After the election I’ll have more flexibility.” (truly scary). http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?feature=player_embedded&v=-Czo5Vf8KZs

1) To the American electorate: “If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.” (please keep your promise).

BINGO !!

getalife

September 7th, 2012
2:34 pm

I welcome all Republicans to think country first and vote for our President.

Adam

September 7th, 2012
2:34 pm

Return of the chart!

Oh, bman, no I stopped keeping track around April when I suffered a massive allergy problem for months thinking it was just because I was tired. And then my routine was so broken I haven’t gotten back to it yet. Kind of like cleaning a room that you let get too messy – the bigger the initial task, the more you don’t want to do beyond the bare minimum.

Newby

September 7th, 2012
2:35 pm

Kam – only 22 posts…

Common Freaking Sense isn't very Common

September 7th, 2012
2:35 pm

DDR

from downstairs

just for Mitt and his love child Paul Rand. LOL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQZmCJUSC6g

:-)

DebbieDoRight - Say No! To Double Down On Trickle Down!

September 7th, 2012
2:35 pm

King of Wishful Thinking

September 7th, 2012
2:35 pm

0311 – $16 Trillion in debt – that’s the price tag for 2 wars and tax cuts.

Adam

September 7th, 2012
2:36 pm

I would like to point out that the lines that last the longest on this graph are, in order, longer the closer to the present we are. I think that says something about trends.

Keep Up the Good Fight!

September 7th, 2012
2:36 pm

Senior Digits — compost, lie, repeat, compose, lie, repeat. :roll:

DannyX

September 7th, 2012
2:36 pm

Don’t worry folks, Romney’s super secret jobs plan is going to produce 12 million jobs.

Mick

September 7th, 2012
2:36 pm

bingo

You lose…unfortunately jesus is not running for president and never will…

Adam

September 7th, 2012
2:37 pm

Oops Jay pointed that out for 4 lines. EGG ON MY FACE

Jay

September 7th, 2012
2:37 pm

Adam, I just made that same point in an update to the post above.

0311/8541/5811/1811/1801

September 7th, 2012
2:37 pm

Jay:

Did you buy any Demoract trinkets or make a contribution at the DNC ?

0311/8541/5811/1811/1801

September 7th, 2012
2:37 pm

Excuse me:

“Democrat”

Adam

September 7th, 2012
2:38 pm

Peadawg: 22 consecutive months of positive job growth is better than it used to be.

Isn’t it 29 or 30 now?

starring Kam Fong as Chin Ho

September 7th, 2012
2:39 pm

or, “nobody can f* up a planet like a trickle down neocon”

getalife

September 7th, 2012
2:39 pm

I think many Republicans watched the Dem Convention, listened to President Clinton and will vote for our President.

Welcome them.

F. Sinkwich

September 7th, 2012
2:39 pm

“‘No president…could fully repair the damage in just four years’”

Preposterous!

This is just more O’bozo mythology — after all, if Mr. Heal-The-Planet couldn’t fix it in four years, NO ONE could have, right?

O’bozo’s policies killed any opportunity at recovery, and they continue to do so.

Tis a sad day when idiot-worship precludes rational thought.

Adam

September 7th, 2012
2:39 pm

Did you buy any Demoract trinkets or make a contribution at the DNC ?

I don’t know about anyone else, but I want the “Sluts Vote” button.

0311/8541/5811/1811/1801

September 7th, 2012
2:40 pm

Hummmmm ………………………. not even for an incumbent ????

Headline: “Obama aides: Don’t expect convention bounce”

CHARLOTTE – “Perhaps they are only trying to lower expectations, but President Obama’s aides are warning backers: Don’t expect a sharp rise in the polls after this week’s Democratic convention.”

Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette

September 7th, 2012
2:41 pm

Yes, Mr. Digits

A proposition.

Which by its very definition means its up for discussion.

And so it is.

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

September 7th, 2012
2:41 pm

In other words, every recovery in the last 30 years has occurred more slowly than its predecessor.

And the boom/bust cycles seem to get closer together.

Adam

September 7th, 2012
2:41 pm

This is just more O’bozo mythology — after all, if Mr. Heal-The-Planet

Good grief…..

How about Mr. “Climate Change is a Hoax” and “Businesses are doing fine” and “I like to fire people” :roll: (For the TBG’s out there, DISCLAIMER: I do this for satire)

DebbieDoRight - Say No! To Double Down On Trickle Down!

September 7th, 2012
2:42 pm

More choices AND some personal favorites – I like both versions:

Hugo:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onDh4P1cE2E

Jay Z:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwoM5fLITfk

Adam

September 7th, 2012
2:42 pm

Headline: “Obama aides: Don’t expect convention bounce”

HEADLINE: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite

moonbat betty

September 7th, 2012
2:42 pm

Since the dems took over in 2006, it’s been going down, down, down

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZarmRLa2p9Q

Nancy

September 7th, 2012
2:42 pm

It’s appearing more and more obvious that Obama will win a second term.

Mick

September 7th, 2012
2:43 pm

Democrats tend to stand up for the middle class working man, republicans on the other hand tend to want endless tax cuts for the wealthy and obscenely wealthy. Which of the two has a better moral compass? Hmmm…..

0311/8541/5811/1811/1801

September 7th, 2012
2:43 pm

‘No president…could fully repair the damage in just four years’

So how long will it takes us to repair the damage Obama has done in four years ?

Paul

September 7th, 2012
2:43 pm

For our chart-challenged bloggers on the Right:

Dave’s in a hole 5 yards deep. The time to dig handholds in the wall and climb has an upper limit and it takes him two hours to climb out.

Now you’re in a hole 20 yards deep. You can climb at the same rate as Dave because you’re the same size and are in the same shape.

What do you say to the people shouting “It’s been two hours!! Why aren’t you out yet? Dave got out in two hours!!! You’re a failure!!!”?

What do you say?

Can you bring yourself to say you’re in a hole four times as deep so of course it takes longer.?

Can you say that?

DannyX

September 7th, 2012
2:43 pm

“Obama aides: Don’t expect convention bounce”

Gallup already showing signs of Obama convention bump.

Obama 48%
Romney 45%

2 point bump for Obama, and its still early.

Fred ™

September 7th, 2012
2:44 pm

Nancy

September 7th, 2012
2:42 pm

It’s appearing more and more obvious that Obama will win a second term.
++++++++++++++++++

Obvious to whom? I see it pretty damn tight at this point with only one economic setback to send it to Romney. But what do I know, I’m an Independent who looks at both sides………

0311/8541/5811/1811/1801

September 7th, 2012
2:44 pm

“The main problem liberals have is that they could not exist without conservatives to defend their freedom and support them economically.”

DebbieDoRight - Say No! To Double Down On Trickle Down!

September 7th, 2012
2:45 pm

Stinky: Tis a sad day when idiot-worship precludes rational thought.

Boy! You sure pegged the idolators worship of St Ronnie! You go boy!

Mick

September 7th, 2012
2:46 pm

**So how long will it takes us to repair the damage Obama has done in four years ?**

None, because he has almost finished repairing the sinkhole left by the previous guy. Next question….

getalife

September 7th, 2012
2:47 pm

Also, I think the mindless deflection of blame to our President gives the gop congress a free pass for not helping after a collapse.

I think the gop congress should be held accountable for refusing to help.

Fred ™

September 7th, 2012
2:47 pm

Dang I can’t seem to get MarkT to answer simple questions. Yet he has ALL DAY to insult………

Jay

September 7th, 2012
2:47 pm

As to the bump, Rasmussen also showing a three-point jump for Obama over last two days.

Paul

September 7th, 2012
2:47 pm

Scout 2:43

I see you’ve been waiting for someone to pick you, so I’ll play.

What damage, specifically?

DannyX

September 7th, 2012
2:48 pm

“The main problem liberals have is that they could not exist without conservatives to defend their freedom and support them economically.”

Romney today after being asked why he didn’t give a shout out to our troops in his convention speech:

“When you give a speech you don’t go through a laundry list, you talk about the things you think are important.”

Mick

September 7th, 2012
2:48 pm

**The main problem liberals have is that they could not exist without conservatives to defend their freedom and support them economically**

The main problem with conservatives is that they create the mess then blame the liberals for bailing them out….what a bunch of thankless thugs…

Erwin's cat

September 7th, 2012
2:48 pm

Jay
As to the other four lines…i would expect it has to do with the rate things became more global…a larger economy would require more time to recover….inertia and all…but that is purely my own speculation

Common Freaking Sense isn't very Common

September 7th, 2012
2:49 pm

Kam

during the 00’s housing buildup. How many people did you know in the trades that either lost their jobs or had to dramatically reduce their rates to get work.

A lot of construction workers that lost their jobs were 1099 employees and so not eligible for UI benefits.

So the jobs numbers are kind of skewed during those years if you ask me.

Oh yeah and the 500,000 H1b visa holders still in the US don’t elp very much.

Steve Shamrock

September 7th, 2012
2:49 pm

What about “Dutch”…was that in the fine print of your blog he was excluded?

Fred ™

September 7th, 2012
2:50 pm

Paul@ 2:43: While that may be the case, the sad truth of the matter is there is President’s comment along the lines that if he certain performance measures aren’t met economically then he will be a one term president. (I forget the exact wording which is why I wobn’t “quote” it. Some Pub will gleefully fill us in). Whether or not he misjudged how bad the problem was, he said the words and the Pubs are repeating them.

Your analogy is unimportant to them as it doesn’t fit their dishonest purposes.

Jay

September 7th, 2012
2:51 pm

Erwin, I imagine that does play some role in it, yes. As we become more and more intertwined globally, we have less and less control over our own economic fate.

Fedup

September 7th, 2012
2:51 pm

Here we go again. The cons are talking in tangent. In north GA majority is the tea party members and the unemployment is north of 12% and that after all the illegals left town. There you repugs deal with that before you criticize this Pres.

getalife

September 7th, 2012
2:52 pm

JamVet

September 7th, 2012
2:53 pm

The Bush Depression is second in all of American history only to the Great Depression of 1929 – 1943.

In terms of impact, duration and devastation.

(But don’t the cons know! They think that just like that other stellar Republican president, Herbert Hoover, their beloved Boy George left the country in great shape…)

Tom Middleton

September 7th, 2012
2:53 pm

And for all of those “let the market work it out” Republicans who didn’t want a stimulus, there would have been a much bigger hole without nearly this much growth. Ideologues suck, Jay, especially when their ideologies cause us all the trouble!

Steve Shamrock

September 7th, 2012
2:55 pm

Jay is lying again…the grass is green…the sky is blue…

“Even using Cutter’s cherry-picked formulation, job creation under Obama has dramatically trailed the pace set by Reagan. In fact, adjusting for the size of the workforce, Reagan’s recovery was more than four times bigger than Obama’s has been so far. We rate Cutter’s claim False.”

Lie after lie….after lie…after lie…

DannyX

September 7th, 2012
2:55 pm

“The cons are talking in tangent. In north GA majority is the tea party members and the unemployment is north of 12% and that after all the illegals left town.”

Georgia Republicans played the corporate tax cut game promising the state would be flooded with new jobs. We’re still waiting.

Adam

September 7th, 2012
2:55 pm

Scout: So how long will it takes us to repair the damage Obama has done in four years ?

First, tell me what damage he has done in four years. You can start with:

-The policies he has enacted since January 20, 2009 that retroactively caused the 2007 recession
-The policies he enacted that caused businesses to hire less people, despite evidence that businesses overall began hiring more people than in December 2008 almost immediately.
-The rationale behind the idea that the President had direct control in any sense behind the job situation since January 20, 2009.

DebbieDoRight - Say No! To Double Down On Trickle Down!

September 7th, 2012
2:55 pm

Mick

September 7th, 2012
2:56 pm

I was lucky enough to get a grant by exxon mobil to the sally ride academy and participated this past july. Here is the bottom line and goes along with the democrats views about investment in education: the top ten most important tech and high paying jobs that need people in 2012 were not even in existence in 2004. The future is in education and a great jobs shift, it must be promoted at all costs…

Adam

September 7th, 2012
2:56 pm

Scout: “The main problem liberals have is that they could not exist without conservatives to defend their freedom and support them economically.”

Reason.com disagrees:
http://reason.com/archives/2011/07/14/the-redblue-paradox

deegee

September 7th, 2012
2:57 pm

I think that the increased productivity that businesses realize as a result of automation and an older, more experienced work force tend to extend the life of a recession in terms of job losses. If the consumer isn’t buying, then businesses can ride out the recession with fewer employees. Unfortunately for us now, we don’t have any dotcom bubbles or housing bubbles on the horizon. Money has never been cheaper than it is now. We are just going to have to learn new skills and invest in 21st century technology in order to pull ourselves out of this.

Joseph

September 7th, 2012
2:57 pm

Wow Jay using a chart form a blog no one’s ever heard of. You fruits are seriously grasping for straws after that ridiculous performance by Oblama last night… About the only real shining moment this week was Gabby Giffords. I will admit that was cool… But the loon speakers was a joke and certainly won’t relate to Independents…

moonbat betty

September 7th, 2012
2:57 pm

Adam

September 7th, 2012
2:58 pm

Steve Shamrock: In fact, adjusting for

Seriously?

Jay

September 7th, 2012
2:58 pm

Shamrock, please explain how what you’ve posted contradicts anything that I’ve written here. You have accused me of lying, but by doing so you taken that title yourself.

Paul

September 7th, 2012
2:58 pm

Fred

It appears to me conservatives are trying to con people with the president’s comment.

I always took it as more of an honest assessment of the short-term thinking so prevalent in America

It’s very similar to the remark made by a guy who was next to the top in an organization where I worked: “I doesn’t matter what a person’s done in the past – how much ahead of his peers, how great the results. One screwup and my attitude is “what have you done for me today?” .

Then I factor in that at the time he said that, no one of whom I am aware had correctly assessed just how horrible the hit to our basic financial structures was.

But you are correct: the pathology to never say anything positive about Obama is pretty hardwired by many on the Right. You know, Democrats, at their convention, had some pretty nice things to say about George Bush. You could even say it was downright Christian of them!

Peadawg

September 7th, 2012
2:58 pm

“Isn’t it 29 or 30 now?”

I read 22 but could be 29. Whatever. Still better than it used to be.

Adam

September 7th, 2012
2:58 pm

I mean, say what you want about someone else’s cherry picked numbers, but if you cherry pick your own to counter the argument, you haven’t made your point.

DebbieDoRight - Say No! To Double Down On Trickle Down!

September 7th, 2012
2:59 pm

When you give a speech you don’t go through a laundry list, you talk about the things you think are important.”

Priceless! Another Let them eat cake moment!

getalife

September 7th, 2012
2:59 pm

The CBO said the President’s job plan would increase 1 million jobs but the gop refuse to pass it.

Mick

September 7th, 2012
3:01 pm

shamrock

Your perspective is a sham…as if reagan walked into anything close to resembling what president obama did, oy vey…

Midori

September 7th, 2012
3:01 pm

I don’t know about anyone else, but I want the “Sluts Vote” button.

Adam — where can I get one of those?

Redneck Convert (R--and proud of it)

September 7th, 2012
3:02 pm

Well, it’s as plain as the nose of your face this recovery would of been alot quicker if we just had whopper tax cuts—say, the lousy guvmint pays us workers a big rebate for us agreeing to live here.

Erwin's cat

September 7th, 2012
3:02 pm

deegee…i believe krugman is a believer in a bubble (or bubble to bubble) driven economy….or at least was…i’m sure if i’m wrong someone here will ponit it out

Paul

September 7th, 2012
3:02 pm

“Wow Jay using a chart form a blog no one’s ever heard of”

And Joseph continues to think ’source’ and ‘content’ are the same…..

Adam

Your post to Scout was more indepth than mine, but the results will be the same. Don’t expect an answer. If there is an answer, don’t assume he’s tying to answer the question…

JamVet

September 7th, 2012
3:02 pm

Hiya, Joseph.

Tell us again how America is not a democracy, OK?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2J_zqxExsj4

Jay

September 7th, 2012
3:04 pm

Joseph, most people with an interest in and knowledge of economics are familiar with Calculated Risk. The fact that you aren’t, well….

Mick

September 7th, 2012
3:05 pm

paul

Scout hasn’t been answering anyone lately, just shooting, missing, then retreating…

GT

September 7th, 2012
3:05 pm

Romney could say cancer has not been cured in Obama’s term. When I am president we will cure cancer because it has not been cured in Obama’s term. One claim is as relative to Romney’s ability as the other.

DebbieDoRight - Say No! To Double Down On Trickle Down!

September 7th, 2012
3:05 pm

getalife

September 7th, 2012
3:05 pm

Unfortunately, the gop does not have any leaders to step up and say they will help Americans.

Fred ™

September 7th, 2012
3:06 pm

I really thought the President’s acceptance speech in 2008 was much better. THAT one brought tears to my eyes lol. This one had me a tad bit cynical at times. The Service member thing was one of those times. It also seemed like the TV coverage I saw was rather scripted. If Obama mentioned orange socks the camera’s were instantly zoomed in on a pair of orange socks.