As GOP convention kicks off, Obama still favorite

With the 2012 Republican Convention about to open its doors, here’s how the race shapes up at the moment, based on RealClearPolitics’ poll average:

polling

In other words, too close to call. The investors at Intrade still make Obama the favorite, with 55.8 percent of dollars invested favoring the incumbent and 43.7 percent predicting a Romney victory. At fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver predicts a 2.4 percentage point margin for Obama come Nov. 6, with a 69.3 percent chance of an Obama re-election.

And according to Gallup, 58 percent of Americans believe Obama will be re-elected, compared to 36 percent who predict a Romney victory. Among Democrats, 86 percent predict victory for Obama, while Republicans are less confident in their champion, with just 65 percent predicting that it will be Romney raising his hand to take the oath of office in January.

Still a long way to go, including debates. But at this point Obama is showing strength, especially considering how poorly he should be doing as predicted by models that focus solely on the economy.

– Jay Bookman

715 comments Add your comment

Joe Hussein Mama

August 28th, 2012
3:00 pm

Morality? — “Mama – I read Ben’s comment. You could have inferred that he was speaking directly to you if you are that sensitive. On the other, hand I can infer that he wasn’t. You wanted an answer and received one.”

If I’m not mistaken, you got banned earlier today for being a sockpuppet.

Tom(Independent Viet Vet,USAF)

August 28th, 2012
3:00 pm

Regarding millionaires and billionaires – I know most of you do not consider me rocket science material, but it just seems to me that if millionaires and billionaires make more money, the middle-class and low-achievers will also? I have no wealth envy, as I think it benefits all!

Kamchak - "Socialism" is just a code word for "fear," the monster under you bed ~ Kamchak

August 28th, 2012
3:09 pm

SocialismFelis domesticus is a four legged quadruped with retractable claws.

That Black Guy

August 28th, 2012
3:30 pm

HDB

August 28th, 2012
2:09 pm
That Black Guy

August 28th, 2012
12:50 pm

When Michael Steele said that there were ONLY 32 black delegates to the 2008 GOP Convention in St. Paul…..and the evidence is clear that the GOP doesn’t WANT black people in the party (refer to Kevin Phillips, deviser of the Nixonian “Southern Strategy”, i.e., “black people have NO PLACE my Republican Party”), the question IS an appropriate one!!
_____________________
What does a hurricane in the Gulf in 2008 have to do with the RNC convention in MN?

Joe Hussein Mama

August 28th, 2012
3:49 pm

Hey, anyone hear from Ben Shockley? (GUFFAW) :D

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

August 28th, 2012
3:58 pm

Hey, anyone hear from Ben Shockley? (GUFFAW)

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing.

Morality?

August 28th, 2012
3:59 pm

Jay – It seems reasonable to me that it is the REAL Democrat Convention Schedule. What do you disagree with? I have already pointed out that Jesse will most likely not be allowed to speak due to his current fragile mind. Get well soon Jesse. However, Al Sharpton will be more than happy to take Jesse’s time but I am concerned that 15 minutes will not be long enough. Holding Al to 15 minutes – if they can do that maybe they can save the economy.

Morality?

August 28th, 2012
4:10 pm

Mama – If I had been banned you wouldn’t be replying to me now would you? How many sock pockets have you used? Ben was attacked repeatedly and maybe he got a little carried away. Responding to attacks from the left on here draws Jay’s ire. I have heard just as bad from the left as the right. Guess he has banned Debbie Do Right? Don’t know what Debbie Did Wrong (sorry) so Jay bans equally without regard, to etc. etc. etc. etc.

Morality?

August 28th, 2012
4:14 pm

Jay – mama called me a sock puppet…… is that something I should be offended about? Be nice mama.

Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes

August 28th, 2012
4:15 pm

Guess he has banned Debbie Do Right?

Just a two day time-out.

Morality?

August 28th, 2012
4:16 pm

Relax Jay _ i’m moving on.

Morality?

August 28th, 2012
4:18 pm

Good…….. don’t agree with Debbie often but she is interesting in her strange sort of way. Hurry back Debbie.

Joe Hussein Mama

August 28th, 2012
4:49 pm

Morality — “Mama – If I had been banned you wouldn’t be replying to me now would you?”

Not necessarily. There are several posters here who have used various means to circumvent banning. In fact, Ben himself *admitted* to having been banned a few weeks ago and point-blank asked Jay if he was going to get thrown back off for doing so.

“How many sock pockets have you used?”

None. Real men don’t need sock puppets.

“Ben was attacked repeatedly and maybe he got a little carried away.”

Making personal attacks when one is not themselves attacked is not ‘getting carried away.’ That’s why Ben got warned, and, I suspect, it’s why he took off immediately thereafter.

“Responding to attacks from the left on here draws Jay’s ire.”

I didn’t attack Ben. I simply held his feet to the fire on an implied insult he made against me. He didn’t have the character either to clarify what he meant or to retract it.

“I have heard just as bad from the left as the right.”

Irrelevant. Ben’s warning was due to Ben’s behavior. Not anyone else’s.

“Jay – mama called me a sock puppet…… is that something I should be offended about? Be nice mama.”

Jay clearly said earlier today — on this very thread — that you have a history of using sockpuppets. If you don’t like the accusation, then take it up with Jay.

ld

August 28th, 2012
5:59 pm

In a recent Bookman blog the race issue was mentioned. Elsewhere on the web I’ve read that, privately at least, a number of members of the GOP acknowledge that this is their last best chance to return to majority power by appealing almost entirely to white voters. (Then, of course, they intend to further manipulate the system so they can keep power) While the GOP may not overtly use racism, certainly every “closet” racist and biggoted buzzword in their vocabularly keeps popping up along with every effort to deliver the message, ‘Obama’s not like you and me’.

I have little doubt that Mitt Romney personally knows more about how the US and world economy works than Obama and/or any of the advisors that are actually on the side of the employee class of Americans does.

I also have no doubt that Romney has every intention of using that knowledge for the best interest of the wealthiest among us. Everything he has said indicates that he, like the rest of the moneyed investor employer class actual ownership of the GOP, have a total lack of regard for the right of every person to exercise their own “free will”. The GOP has abandoned BOTH individual liberty and equal right under law as far a the right of the average American (especially women) to make their own personal life style choices. The so-called “smaller, less intrusive government” to the GOP and under a Romney presidency, would apply only to PROFIT$ and the pursuit thereof.

If the GOP can continue to get the “follower class of people” to not notice these two truth — if the GOP can keep them in a religious stupor through the election, so they will not consider the actual EFFECTS of GOP policies on the employee class of Americans as well as “least among us”, AND, if they can get them to the polls to vote, the GOP stands a good chance of overcoming any purported incumbant advantage.

Vast Right Wing Conspiracy (aka "Knuckle-Dragger")

August 28th, 2012
7:09 pm

My polls have Romney up 15 across the board. Wonder who’s correct?