With the 2012 Republican Convention about to open its doors, here’s how the race shapes up at the moment, based on RealClearPolitics’ poll average:
In other words, too close to call. The investors at Intrade still make Obama the favorite, with 55.8 percent of dollars invested favoring the incumbent and 43.7 percent predicting a Romney victory. At fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver predicts a 2.4 percentage point margin for Obama come Nov. 6, with a 69.3 percent chance of an Obama re-election.
And according to Gallup, 58 percent of Americans believe Obama will be re-elected, compared to 36 percent who predict a Romney victory. Among Democrats, 86 percent predict victory for Obama, while Republicans are less confident in their champion, with just 65 percent predicting that it will be Romney raising his hand to take the oath of office in January.
Still a long way to go, including debates. But at this point Obama is showing strength, especially considering how poorly he should be doing as predicted by models that focus solely on the economy.
– Jay Bookman