In many ways, Ryan 2012 a bigger gamble than Palin 2008
Four years ago, when news broke of Sarah Palin’s selection as the GOP’s vice presidential nominee, I happened to be with two of my more conservative friends. They were ecstatic about the choice, chatting excitedly together and believing it to be a political masterstroke that all but guaranteed victory for John McCain.
At the time, I didn’t know much at all about Palin, and what I did know made me dubious. 
But I remember being struck by how very differently they and I perceived the situation. It was as if they shared a perception of the world that I had no hope of tapping into or comprehending.
Today, four years later, we have Paul Ryan as the GOP vice presidential nominee, another pick that has excited the Republican base. But while Ryan is young and photogenic, he is also no Sarah Palin. He already has a career of consequence behind him, he takes his job and responsibility seriously and “gotcha” questions such as “what newspapers do you read?” are not going to cause him trouble. He is a qualified pick.
But something else is very different as well. On the surface, Republicans are very happy about the selection of one of their movement’s bright young stars. Democrats are equally thrilled by the pick. Somebody, it seems, is going to be very disappointed. And in GOP inner circles, there’s a deep fear about who that “somebody” is likely to be.
Here’s a sampling:
“There are a lot races that are close to the line we’re not going to win now because they’re going to battle out who’s going to kill grandma first, ObamaCare or Paul Ryan’s budget,” said one Republican strategist who works on congressional races. “It could put the Senate out of reach. In the House it puts a bunch of races in play that would have otherwise been safe. … It remains to be seen how much damage this causes, but my first blush is this is not good.”
Former Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.), who chaired the NRCC from 2003-2006, warned that he foresaw in this election shades of President George W. Bush’s fight to create a voucher program for Social Security early in his second term, which many say cost the GOP seats in 2006.
“You saw what happened to Bush with Social Security in the 2006 election,” he said. “This is déjà vu.”
“Away from the cameras, and with all the usual assurances that people aren’t being quoted by name, there is an unmistakable consensus among Republican operatives in Washington: Romney has taken a risk with Ryan that has only a modest chance of going right — and a huge chance of going horribly wrong…
And the more pessimistic strategists don’t even feign good cheer: They think the Ryan pick is a disaster for the GOP. Many of these people don’t care that much about Romney — they always felt he faced an improbable path to victory — but are worried that Ryan’s vocal views about overhauling Medicare will be a millstone for other GOP candidates in critical House and Senate races.”
“I think it’s a very bold choice. And an exciting and interesting pick. It’s going to elevate the campaign into a debate over big ideas. It means Romney-Ryan can run on principles and provide some real direction and vision for the Republican Party. And probably lose. Maybe big,” said former President George W. Bush senior adviser Mark McKinnon.
And as Ronald Brownstein notes at National Journal, the choice creates an opening for Democrats among older downscale white voters, the demographic group that Republicans have come to rely upon more and more heavily with each passing political cycle:
“Ryan’s ambitious budget blueprint, as passed twice by House Republicans over the past two years, crystallizes the GOP’s highest policy priority: shrinking the size of the federal government, largely by dramatically restructuring entitlement programs led by Medicare and Medicaid. But the GOP today is increasingly dependent on the votes of older and blue-collar whites who — while eager to scale back government programs that transfer income to the poor — are much more resistant to retrenching entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security that largely benefit the middle-class.
Those attitudes haven’t stopped those voters from providing Republicans commanding margins in recent elections. But in polls, most of those older and blue-collar voters have consistently recoiled from the centerpiece proposal of Ryan’s budget: his initiative to convert Medicare from its existing structure, in which Washington pays doctors and hospitals directly for care they provide to seniors, into a premium support or voucher system that would provide seniors a fixed sum of money to either purchase private insurance or buy into the existing program….
In March, the United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll offered respondents two options for (Medicare). Just 19 percent of whites older than 65 endorsed Ryan’s approach, which said “Medicare should be changed to a system where the government provides seniors with a fixed sum of money they could use either to purchase private health insurance or to pay the cost of remaining in the current Medicare program.” Fully 74 percent of white seniors said instead that “Medicare should continue as it is today, with the government providing health insurance and paying doctors and hospitals directly for the services they provide to seniors.” Among non-college whites, 63 percent said they preferred the current system, while only 26 percent backed Ryan’s approach.
Ryan’s selection, in other words, seems to be an even bigger political gamble than the selection of Palin four years ago. In fact, in the pairing of Bain Capital executive Mitt Romney with Ayn Rand acolyte Paul Ryan, President Obama may have been given precisely the opponents that he wanted most.
Given the economic situation, that doesn’t guarantee victory by any means. But I have to think that Obama likes his chances.
– Jay Bookman
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889 comments Add your comment
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
August 14th, 2012
2:46 pm
“Exactly, you might want to tell your reps to stop trying to steal it and stop calling it welfare. Tell them it is about good jobs not stealing what you paid for. ”
They are trying to revamp them to make them more efficient, fair and cut the waste/fraud.
That’s fine with me.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
August 14th, 2012
2:46 pm
Brother AmVet
http://www.drudgereport.com/
A one-stop shopping for all the con talking points.
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
August 14th, 2012
2:47 pm
http://www.cnn.com/
A one-stop shopping for all the lib. talking points.
getalife
August 14th, 2012
2:47 pm
junior,
Stupid question but to be expected from you cons.
Try listening to him or visit his web site silly.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
August 14th, 2012
2:49 pm
0311 — “Careful …………… I made “Granny” angry this morning posting something similar.”
Looks like someone is bearing false witness again….. another sin to have to take care of. Or is the thought, “I can lie all I want and pray for forgiveness later”?
getalife
August 14th, 2012
2:49 pm
Scout,
wolfie acts like he is on the robme payroll and cnn gives your party a free pass.
Dave
August 14th, 2012
2:50 pm
Hey Bookman…when you gonna say something about the filthy vile crap the Democrats are using…you know the RACE BAITING…I mean how low can they go, after the crap that BIDEN is putting out…”back to slavery”….there is no mistaking what the Democrats are putting out…1st in FL and now nation wide….the Republicans are the Slave Masters…they gonna take you back to 1850’s….this is sick…and you know what…if you want to see America destroyed watch this election, if this is the way the Democrats are gonna run it. Pure Hatred will be all that’s left if this vile crap continues and don’t even try to tell me I missing the real meaning of what Democrats are saying. I am born and raised here in Georgia, 56 yrs ago…I ‘ve seen racism and race baiting and this is beyond anything I’ve ever seen except for the filth that the Klan puts out. I am sad to be an American if this is what we’ve become.
getalife
August 14th, 2012
2:51 pm
“They are trying to revamp them to make them more efficient, fair and cut the waste/fraud.
That’s fine with me.”
ACA did that.
You trust a party getting unlimited bribes to get their greedy hands on your safety net.
I don’t.
getalife
August 14th, 2012
2:52 pm
dave’s head just exploded.
Who will clean up the mess?
Ew.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
August 14th, 2012
2:53 pm
A one-stop shopping for all the lib. talking points.
Soledad O’Brien has two Drudgie’s foaming at the mouth.
Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette
August 14th, 2012
2:53 pm
Mr. Digits
My dad repeats himself…..the Dr suggested Aricet.
Seems to be getting the job done.
You one funny guy!
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
August 14th, 2012
2:53 pm
Good Fight:
“The venue won’t hold more than about 600 people…..”
And that’s why they picked that site …………. that’s all they expected.
A good staff advance person always picks a site that is just right for the expected crowd or one that can be closed off/sectioned to make the crowd look full.
Bottom line?
Obama/Biden are having problems drawing crowds.
RB from Gwinnett
August 14th, 2012
2:54 pm
Peter, are you avoiding my question?
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
August 14th, 2012
2:54 pm
getalife:
Agree to disagree. That’s why we have elections.
getalife
August 14th, 2012
2:55 pm
rb,
I’ll be your huckleberry.
What was your silly question?
Lord Help Us
August 14th, 2012
2:56 pm
0311, do you have a flat screen tv, cell phone and/or Escalade?
Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette
August 14th, 2012
2:56 pm
Keeps
That’s why I keep Mr.Digits in my prayers and meditations.
He’s in deep doo doo…..
My buddy Christ don’t play that.
the cat
August 14th, 2012
2:57 pm
031–the difference in crowd levels at this stage matters not. Most people know what to expect of our President. No one know what to expect from Willard and Ryan and I imagine there are folks going to the viewing expecting some gaffes and giggles and they are getting what they expected. Gaffes and giggles.
getalife
August 14th, 2012
2:58 pm
Scout,
I have a question.
Why do you “Christians” scream about liberty and freedom but bow down for the greedy wealthy?
To be fair I did read Catholic bishops saying the ryan plan did not meet the moral test.
sam
August 14th, 2012
2:58 pm
Remember those amazing crowds that came out to see Palin, how’d that turn out?
TaxPayer
August 14th, 2012
2:59 pm
Scout must be tired of drawing benefits from taxpayer funds. Why else would he vote for Romney/Ryan.
Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette
August 14th, 2012
2:59 pm
Lord…
I speak to you now to aask you kindly to wrap your arms
around Mr. Digits and help him find the truth.
Bring him out of the darkness and into the light of your love.
And please don’t hit him in the ass with a lightning bolt for being
such a phony follower.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
August 14th, 2012
3:00 pm
Granny, you’d better super-duper size that prayer.
Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette
August 14th, 2012
3:01 pm
Can I get an AMEN!
getalife
August 14th, 2012
3:02 pm
Amen.
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
August 14th, 2012
3:02 pm
O.K. libs. ………….. it’s been fun today but I must head over to pick up my Ford (not Escalade) from servicing at the dealership. You know ………. the one that didn’t need a bailout !
Everyone be nice !
Later !
getalife
August 14th, 2012
3:04 pm
Scout,
My question made you cut and run?
Ford did get a bailout silly.
Lying is a sin Scout.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
August 14th, 2012
3:05 pm
You know ………. the one that didn’t need a bailout !
You mean the one that benefitted from the bailout that helped its suppliers that would have gone out of business. Yes, we know. You can thank Obama.
Amen!
G Mare
August 14th, 2012
3:08 pm
Granny Godzilla, AMEN!
Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette
August 14th, 2012
3:09 pm
The spirit has apparently moved Mr. Digits.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
August 14th, 2012
3:10 pm
the Republicans are the Slave Masters
I didn’t know that. Thanks
Joseph
August 14th, 2012
3:12 pm
Adam:
Absolutely… When people start thinking about how he’s failed before election day his numbers will come crumbling down like an avalanche. His approvals are now in the low 40’s. No way can he win with that..
getalife
August 14th, 2012
3:12 pm
RYAN: ‘Look, no teleprompter!’ drudgey.
Drink!
getalife
August 14th, 2012
3:14 pm
joey,
Are you on welfare?
stands for decibels (SfBA)
August 14th, 2012
3:18 pm
His approvals are now in the low 40’s. No way can he win with that..
Why not? Please to explain.
PJ
August 14th, 2012
3:19 pm
Dave @2:50 pm
Put that in a Hallmark Card, maybe someone might care.
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801 @2:53 pm
Big crowds also stop to see terrible car wrecks too. Maybe there’s something to this analogy.
Adam
August 14th, 2012
3:21 pm
Joseph: Care to put $100 down on that? I bet Obama wins, you bet he doesn’t?
JamVet
August 14th, 2012
3:21 pm
I see, Kam.
CNN is comprised of intelligent, verifiable, world sourced, world respected data and news.
While the Fudge Report is just a bunch of made up Limbaughesque nonsense for the Republican Party/lunatic fringe.
Got it!
JamVet
August 14th, 2012
3:23 pm
The corporal wears a hoodie and is very suspicious…
Joseph
August 14th, 2012
3:24 pm
Adam:
I’m couldn’t possibly bet that much. I’m not a 1% that you guys hate….
Joseph
August 14th, 2012
3:25 pm
stands for decibels (SfBA):
No sitting President has ever won with approvals that low.. Google is a wonderful thing…
PJ
August 14th, 2012
3:27 pm
Adam @3:21 pm
Can I get $100.00 of that action!
4 more for 44!
Joseph
August 14th, 2012
3:27 pm
Gallop has Romney up 2 and Rassmussen up 3…. lol…
JamVet
August 14th, 2012
3:28 pm
Adam,
1) He has so little conviction in the Father of Socialist Medicine RINO he will NEVER wager that hundred.
2) Even if he did, he is a con. They welch.
Joseph
August 14th, 2012
3:29 pm
JamVet:
Drudge Report is actual news articles from legitimate sites… What a loon. Here’s another site for you. fincherstew.com
Adam
August 14th, 2012
3:29 pm
PJ: Are you betting against Obama or for? Because I’m matching $100 for anyone betting that Obama loses, to my bet that Obama wins.
bman
August 14th, 2012
3:30 pm
So-called political experts. analysts, insiders from both democratic and republican parties – all believe Ryan was a bad pick. I think they will be proven wrong. We won’t have to wait long to find out.
The economy will lose a little more steam as election day closes in.
Joseph
August 14th, 2012
3:30 pm
JamVet:
Even if I had $100 dollars to bet its still a 50-50 chance. Remember there’s a lot of stupid people in this country. And they vote dem….
JamVet
August 14th, 2012
3:31 pm
No sh*t, Joseph? Really? No way!
When I want to see unadulterated BS from the lunatic fringe, I just come here and read you and td and JKL2 and your made up out of thin air crap!
Goldie
August 14th, 2012
3:32 pm
Hoo-weee, let the debates begin! I’m especially lookin’ forward to hearing Ryan explain his views re: abortion and no exceptions for rape, incest or sparing the life of the woman involved… yesiree, we women folks really want to go back and argue all that with you Cons and why it’s not gonna win you enough votes in November!
Joseph
August 14th, 2012
3:32 pm
bman:
Wow I didn’t know MessNBC was that desperate. The base and independents is rallying around Ryan.. Look at the millions coming in and his approval rising…
Adam
August 14th, 2012
3:32 pm
Joseph: Thing is, I’m willing to bet $100 even not being in the 1%. You’re not. And really, knowing that you aren’t as confident in your party’s ticket as I am in Obama’s ticket is satisfying enough.
PJ
August 14th, 2012
3:32 pm
Adam
Obama to win baby!
4 more for 44!
JamVet
August 14th, 2012
3:32 pm
OH!
Just a 50-50 chance?
You seem so c0cksure that your fellow RINO is going to win easily. It is all you written for weeks on end.
What changed?
LOL…
ITS ALL BUSHS FAULT
August 14th, 2012
3:34 pm
In many ways Ryan 2012 is a bigger A-Hole than Palin 2008
stands for decibels (SfBA)
August 14th, 2012
3:34 pm
No sitting President has ever won with approvals that low.
That’s the be-all and end-all of your argument? It hasn’t happened before?
Jack
August 14th, 2012
3:34 pm
Bookman knows how to energize the left: There’s no way to compare Ryan’s with Palin’s capabilities and he knows that. He just loves to throw bones to the liberal salivators and then watch ‘em bark and screech and howl.
Biden is a joke and Obama is a snake oil salesman and will look silly in the debates. Obama’s “you didn’t build that” was the last straw.
SwamiDave
August 14th, 2012
3:35 pm
It is truly entertaining to watch people make predictions at this time. It is especially entertaining when those assumptions are made based upon their own preconceived notions.
Do I have preconceptions? Yep. Do I look to November as a certainty for either candidate? Nope.
That said –
Based on 2008, the magic number is 5% or greater. If Romney / Ryan can turn the percentages by 5% or greater overall, they will win in the Electoral College. If the number is 4%, the margin will be razor-thin that is a toss-up. If they cannot get to 4%, Obama gets re-elected.
-SD
stands for decibels (SfBA)
August 14th, 2012
3:35 pm
Flip Romney SHEETZ
Joseph
August 14th, 2012
3:36 pm
JamVet:
Read my last post… Many stupid people who vote dem… Now put your chains back on!
Welcome to the Occupation
August 14th, 2012
3:36 pm
Woodstock “Can a liberal please explain how taxing the top 1% is going to help a middle class guy make more money or create more private sector jobs?”
If we simply reduce things to a single policy action, such as raising one tax bracket or set of brackets, it’s easy enough to dismiss as you do with your question.
What is needed is an entire economic structure that rolls back the predatory power of capital and restores stability and economic justice for the broad population.
Paul
August 14th, 2012
3:37 pm
Hi Goldie!
” I’m especially lookin’ forward to hearing Ryan explain his views re: abortion and no exceptions for rape, incest or sparing the life of the woman involved…”
It’s the orthodox Roman Catholic view. It is quite internally consistent. Having said that, it leaves no room for compromise or doubt, which makes it a very dubious proposition as a matter of public policy. Even people on this blog (who shall remain unnamed) who say they are not for choice but are prolife only, find their position inconsistent and leading to some fantastical statements when pressed in light of the Roman Catholic position.
I know, Goldie, I know…. now you’re going to ask me ’some prolife bloggers here make fantastical statements? Really? How are they any different from their usual statements” right?
out for a bit -
Granny Godzilla - Union Thugette
August 14th, 2012
3:38 pm
Goldie
Hi!
Read today that Ryan’s stand on womens rights would most likely make
in-vitro illegal.
Couple of Romney’s boys had to use the process….
Joseph
August 14th, 2012
3:38 pm
Jack:
Bookman knows how to energize the left
Don’t worry Jack. Bookman only has maybe 5 loyal followers… That don’t add up to many votes. I’m just amazed the AJC hasn’t put him in the road with the left wing tripe he spews in the bright red state of Georgia…
Crazy Times
August 14th, 2012
3:39 pm
0311/8541/5811/1811/1801
Guess you have noticed the markets since Bush left office, but keep buying into ole Rush.
Joseph
August 14th, 2012
3:39 pm
Granny Godzilla – Union Thugette:
and Obama was born of a jackel…. You fruits….
That Black Guy
August 14th, 2012
3:43 pm
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
August 14th, 2012
2:34 pm
Bush Jr was in the Army
Really?
______________
Oops. Air Nat’l Guard
sam
August 14th, 2012
3:43 pm
Joe, take another look. those arent Independants
Jefferson
August 14th, 2012
3:44 pm
Some of you who have been on the gov’t nickel since they got a job and don’t appreciate their gov’t seem angry about something. Childhood ? Relationship with mom ? Just anger.
JamVet
August 14th, 2012
3:46 pm
jo jo, jo jo, jo jo.
You move from one lie to the next to the next.
Clumsily, very clumsily, but I guess you do your best to convince yourself that you are lucid and make sense.
Most here would agree that you do not.
And you vote for who?
Goldie
August 14th, 2012
3:47 pm
“It’s the orthodox Roman Catholic view.”
Paul, his religion may be the reason he has those beliefs but that does not mean we should all be governed based solely on his religion. What about all the crazy stuff written in the Bible, such as allowing slavery and killing people for planting the wrong crops in their field, etc.? How can we base our government on Biblical teachings when that book’s so wrong and outdated in so many ways?
I’m just saying…
sam
August 14th, 2012
3:49 pm
i think the GOP would have better odds of winning if the ticket were reversed. Romney is just too much of a cliche wannbee politician. say anything, believe anything, what works. i loved his comment last fall about him being an outsider, a non-politician…uh, not by choice there Mitt, its because you cant win a damn election. he’s way too obvious to win the presidency.
Goldie
August 14th, 2012
3:50 pm
hey Granny G.– good to see you posting here today! I also read that when Ryan’s Dad died suddenly during his teenage years that Ryan was able to collect survivor’s benefits from his Dad’s Soc.Security — it’s gonna be a great debate in October, yes???
sam
August 14th, 2012
3:50 pm
Goldie, you sound smart enough to know that we only cherry-pick the convenient teachings in the bible.
independent thinker
August 14th, 2012
3:51 pm
Ryan voted for unfunded Medicare drugs for the elderly to get George W. reelected and now goes on psychopath Beck’s show to say progressives are a cancer. He needs to be back driving that Oscar Meyer Weinermobile. What a hypocrite!!!!!!!!
Just like Ms. Grissly Momma saying at GOP convention she returned money for the bridge to nowhere and then we found out she kept it and spent it on other pork barrel projects.
These people will believe any pile of BS.
Goldie
August 14th, 2012
3:52 pm
Sam @ 3:50 — correct, how did I forget that little tidbit? Cherry-picking all the convenient stuff!
Goldie
August 14th, 2012
3:56 pm
“He needs to be back driving that Oscar Meyer Weinermobile.”
indie thinker– I’m with you Dude! Ryan’s a religious extremist who is now trying to conform to Mitt’s “moderate” nature in governing– HA! Smoke ‘n mirrors, baby!
PJ
August 14th, 2012
3:59 pm
Cons are always the do as they say not as they do party.
JKL2
August 14th, 2012
4:17 pm
jamvet- (The word is not hyphenated. Add spelling to you vast list of academci challenges!)
something about glass houses and stones. I sure you remember since you know everything…
JKL2
August 14th, 2012
4:37 pm
joe mama- If a Republican is a millionaire, he STILL thinks about how to better his situation.
Takes a true Democrat to boo success.
JKL2
August 14th, 2012
4:46 pm
getalife- The desperation shows a landslide coming
obama is definitely scared about having to discuss issues.
Vote obama: He’s still black and articulate!
JKL2
August 14th, 2012
4:49 pm
jefferson- Has anyone though about a 100 mil IRA and what you would need that for ?
George soros and Warren”I should pay more taxes but I can’t seem to find my checkbook”Buffet say,”What?”
Sounds like a party weekend to those guys…
JKL2
August 14th, 2012
5:00 pm
stands- Didn’t care much for him as a Senator, but I, for one, loved Biden as candidate in 2008, and he’s been a terrific VP
The man is such a public embarrassment that me can’t even send to to state functions like ever other VP in history (even Dan Quayle) and you think he’s terrific? Wow…
JKL2
August 14th, 2012
5:08 pm
scout- The owner of a famous beer stand at the Iowa State Fair says President Obama’s visit last night cost him as much as $25,000.
Reminds me of Clinton shutting down LAX so he could get a haircut on his plane.
JKL2
August 14th, 2012
5:16 pm
the cat- congressman-screams-at-mother-with-two-children-tells-her-to-join-the-military-instead-of-using-pell-grants/
Remember a story years ago with an unemployment office. They told anyone under 30 to go down to the recruiting office and if they didn’t get offered a job they could receive benefits. The guy said he paid 2 claims for the year.
Couldn’t do it now since the military isn’t hiring, but it was great back then.
Vast Right Wing Conspiracy
August 14th, 2012
5:41 pm
So the Supreme Leader likes his chances with Biden, as compared to Ryan? That’s funny. Nobody discusses Biden because everybody knows he is a moron. Democrats – no budget presented in three years – I would assume they do not know how to create one, and have great disdain for the whole concept anyway.
Emperor Nero has created more debt in four years than all prior presidents combined – why don’t they want to talk about that?
Boomerscoutofamerica
August 14th, 2012
10:47 pm
This pick was not to win the election but to win financial support and tee up a TeaPotty candidate for 2016. Romney has already lost; his GOP Elders have told him. Even Fox has. So his legacy will be a young, tough-love candidate for four years from now. The Elders have said that since the GOP will probably retain the House, they will block Obama every step of the way and discredit the Dems. Unfortunately, this means the real hard work of the country will continue to go undone. Poor US and getting poorer.
Stew Day
August 14th, 2012
11:26 pm
Jay–The Romney-Ryan ticket is a huge wrecking ball against the dumb fiscal decisions of OBAMACARE and free welfare, and food vouchers for all, and the open check book of this government’s unlimited hand outs. The same government who has not even tried to pass or even cut a program to meet a budget in years. Put money on it, this ticket will sweep the bad decisions of the current administration right out of office. First and foremost, OBAMACARE is Obama’s waterloo come November–this ticket will remind everyone of that.
JKL2
August 14th, 2012
11:57 pm
adam- And really, knowing that you aren’t as confident in your party’s ticket as I am in Obama’s ticket is satisfying enough.
Wish this election had something to do with issues. obama and the media will do everything possible to make sure that doesn’t happen. Since obama has wrapped up the welfare crowd, idiots, and people who vote based on skin color, Romney has alot to overcome.