Hottest July, hottest seven months, hottest 12 months ….
Not that this will change any minds — actual data having been stripped of pertinence in modern political debate — but …
“The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during July was 77.6°F, 3.3°F above the 20th century average, marking the hottest July and the hottest month on record for the nation. The previous warmest July for the nation was July 1936 when the average U.S. temperature was 77.4°F. The warm July temperatures contributed to a record-warm first seven months of the year and the warmest 12-month period the nation has experienced since recordkeeping began in 1895….
The January-July period was the warmest first seven months of any year on record for the contiguous United States. The national temperature of 56.4°F was 4.3°F above the long-term average. Most of the contiguous U.S. was record and near-record warm for the seven-month period, except the Pacific Northwest, which was near average….”
The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI), an index that tracks the highest and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones across the contiguous U.S., was a record-large 46 percent during the January-July period, over twice the average value, and surpassing the previous record large CEI of 42 percent which occurred in 1934. Extremes in warm daytime temperatures (83 percent) and warm nighttime temperatures (74 percent) both covered record large areas of the nation, contributing to the record high year-to-date USCEI value.”
Again, I have no illusion that such data will have any effect, largely because accepting the reality of man-driven climate change means accepting a self-imposed banishment from the conservative tribe. But I think it’s important to post it anyway, for the historical record if nothing else.
– Jay Bookman
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333 comments Add your comment
Joe Hussein Mama
August 8th, 2012
3:14 pm
Doggone — “You aren’t.”
I emphatically disagree.
“Proving what you believe is not the same thing as proving something exists or not.
If certain species of theists were less prone to saying that they KNOW their god exists, then I might be more conciliatory toward your position. However, again, it appears to me that I’m being held to a higher standard of proof than theists in general are.
Thulsa Doom
August 8th, 2012
3:17 pm
“There’s a BIG difference between something which doesn’t exist, and something that you BELIEVE doesn’t exist.’
Yep.
Joe Hussein Mama
August 8th, 2012
3:19 pm
Doom — “Yep.”
One wonders if the corollary ever crosses your mind, to wit; that there’s a big difference between something that does exist and something that you BELIEVE to exist.
Ben Shockley
August 8th, 2012
3:20 pm
Doggone, looks like adam is saying it’s settled science too.
Adam
August 8th, 2012
2:47 pm
Thulsa: Man may or may not have a role in that change and if he does have a role in the climate warming we do not know to what degree.
First of all, your entire argument reminds me of “Tide goes in, tide goes out, you can’t explain that.”
Why? Because we CAN explain that. Just like we CAN say for sure that man is mostly to blame for the current warming trend, and we DO know to what degree. We also know it has nothing to do with volcanoes or solar activity. It’s all in the study by Richard Muller.
Ben Shockley
August 8th, 2012
3:21 pm
Ben – 2
Doggone – 0
Doggone/GA
August 8th, 2012
3:22 pm
“However, again, it appears to me that I’m being held to a higher standard of proof than theists in general are”
Nope. You are not. YOU are only being asked to prove what you BELIEVE. THEY are being asked to prove an empirical FACT.
b-troll
August 8th, 2012
3:24 pm
yankees like global warming
they won’t be as cold in the winter
southerners won’t need stoves to cook food anymore either
think of all the benefits!
maybe we can juice it up to 100 degrees all the time….
Joe Hussein Mama
August 8th, 2012
3:24 pm
Doggone — “Nope. You are not. YOU are only being asked to prove what you BELIEVE. THEY are being asked to prove an empirical FACT.”
I fail to see the distinction here. In both cases, empirical fact must be proven.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
August 8th, 2012
3:25 pm
SHEETS!
Ben Shockley
August 8th, 2012
3:25 pm
You know, we’re running $1.4 trillion dollar annual deficits, unemployment at sustained levels not seen since the great depression, with no relief from either on the horizon………and Bookman thinks we ought to talk about the weather? Or Mitt Romney’s personal income tax returns? Or a penny sales tax for metro transit?
LMAO!!!!!!!
Doggone/GA
August 8th, 2012
3:25 pm
“Doggone, looks like adam is saying it’s settled science too”
What part of “mostly” do you not understand? “we CAN say for sure that man is mostly to blame for the current warming trend”
Ben 0 Doggone 2
Doggone/GA
August 8th, 2012
3:27 pm
“I fail to see the distinction here. In both cases, empirical fact must be proven”
Nope again. You beliefs are personal, not empirical
Thulsa Doom
August 8th, 2012
3:28 pm
“First of all, your entire argument reminds me of “Tide goes in, tide goes out, you can’t explain that.”
Sure ya can silly. Its called the moon and gravitational pull.
“Why? Because we CAN explain that. Just like we CAN say for sure that man is mostly to blame for the current warming trend, and we DO know to what degree.”
Really Adam? So we DO know to what degree man is warming the planet? And what is this magical number that the consensus number of scientists agree on? As far as I know global temps have risen over the last year by 8/10ths of one stinking degree. So please tell me. Exactly what % of that 8/10ths of one degree warming have the scientists conclusively agreed on that is man made?
“-CO2 in the atmosphere is the thing that correlates SO closely to the rising temperature that it is DEFINITELY the cause of temperature rises in the earth moreso than any other element examined.”
Not quite sir. There have been times where CO2 concentrations were much higher and the Earth’s temps were roughly what they are now.
“Human activity is what correlates to the ramp up in CO2.”
Probably. But not an absolute proven. As I have stated there have been other periods in Earth’s history where CO2 concentrations were higher and temps roughly the same. As for the cause I doubt the animal and plant life were burning fossil fuels.
Thulsa Doom
August 8th, 2012
3:30 pm
I’m not seeing a difference between:
“God doesn’t exist.
and
I don’t believe a god exists.”
Easy. One is an absolute statement. The other is just one man’s belief or opinion.
Joe Hussein Mama
August 8th, 2012
3:35 pm
Doggone — “Nope again. You beliefs are personal, not empirical”
*Proving* beliefs requires empirical evidence.
Joe Hussein Mama
August 8th, 2012
3:36 pm
Doom — “Easy. One is an absolute statement. The other is just one man’s belief or opinion.”
Again, I wonder if you ever reflect on how that might apply to yourself as a theist.
That Black Guy
August 8th, 2012
3:38 pm
Adam
August 8th, 2012
2:39 pm
TBG: That’s like saying that I have high blood pressure, but we don’t need to know if it’s because I drink, or because I smoke, or because it runs in my family, or a combination of these things.
Actually it’s more like your doctor telling you that you have high blood pressure, and then telling you that it’s because you drink too much, and then you counter with “well, I may drink too much, but surely that’s not the ONLY reason” in an attempt to not address the drinking problem.
__________________________________________________________________________
That’s the way *YOU* see it.
The way *I* see it, was the way *I* explained it.
Thulsa Doom
August 8th, 2012
3:39 pm
Joe Hussein Mama
August 8th, 2012
3:19 pm
Doom — “Yep.”
One wonders if the corollary ever crosses your mind, to wit; that there’s a big difference between something that does exist and something that you BELIEVE to exist.
Yep.
And I still see that you are trying to wiggle around the obvious distinction in an absolute statement and an opinion. Doggone pretty much has you on this one. Just admit it and move on. Or are we back at Joe Mama’s usual game of never being able to admit that he’s wrong. Its that hubris thing again it is.
BTW you’re not being held to a higher standard than the theists. I don’t see any theists on here that say they can prove God exists. I see plenty on here who believe God exists but I’ve yet to see one who says he can prove God exists.
Thulsa Doom
August 8th, 2012
3:41 pm
Joe mama,
Easy. I believe God exists. I do not have the unmitigated gall to make the absolute statement that he does exist because I cannot prove it. I can only offer reasons as to why I believe there is an infinite intelligence.
Statistician
August 8th, 2012
3:45 pm
I’ll say it again – pointing out that this was the hottest month, day, or second on record says absolutely nothing about climate change. The coldest US month on record was January 1979. Does that mean global warming wasn’t happening in the late 70’s? No, it doesn’t.
I believe that climate change is an issue, but Jay, you’re seriously misunderstanding the statistics and science behind it. It’s not about the extremes – it’s about the averages and long-term trends. Misrepresenting the issues like this just enables the deniers. Please be more informed about what climate change is and isn’t in the future, Jay.
That Black Guy
August 8th, 2012
3:46 pm
Adam
August 8th, 2012
2:40 pm
TBG: In essence, the doctor already knows that yes, there might be other, minor causes for your high blood pressure, but that the MAJOR cause is the only one that needs to be addressed. But you, the patient, being so attached to drinking, refuse to do anything about it. THAT is the Climate Change “debate.”
____________________________________________________________________
That is the “Climate Change” debate, as *YOU* see it.
I see it as some wanting more validation that;
the science is not tainted by self interest (as it may be on BOTH sides)
the cause has been REASONABLY identified
possible solutions examined
it is not being used to push some social/political agenda
As long as the political emotions are involved, nothing will get solved.
How willing are you to work with someone who calls you a dumazz because you want to be sure what is being presented is correct?
Joe Hussein Mama
August 8th, 2012
3:47 pm
Doom — “And I still see that you are trying to wiggle around the obvious distinction in an absolute statement and an opinion. Doggone pretty much has you on this one. Just admit it and move on.
Or are we back at Joe Mama’s usual game of never being able to admit that he’s wrong. Its that hubris thing again it is.”
Since this is simply the normal valueless, inflammatory bulldada I’ve come to expect from you, Doom, I won’t give you a substantive reply.
I will say this, though. You need to hang out with Bruno more. Your knowledge of logic and philosophy still needs some work.
“BTW you’re not being held to a higher standard than the theists.”
Once again, I disagree.
“I don’t see any theists on here that say they can prove God exists. I see plenty on here who believe God exists but I’ve yet to see one who says he can prove God exists.”
I see plenty on here who say “I know God exists” and the like. But all it takes is one atheist to say ‘there is no god’ and away we go.
That Black Guy
August 8th, 2012
3:54 pm
Adam
August 8th, 2012
2:40 pm
TBG: In essence, the doctor already knows that yes, there might be other, minor causes for your high blood pressure, but that the MAJOR cause is the only one that needs to be addressed. But you, the patient, being so attached to drinking, refuse to do anything about it. THAT is the Climate Change “debate.”
_______________________________________________________________
Also, suppose the Dr already has a deep belief that drinking is a major cause of HBP. I may only have 1 drink a day but smoke 3 packs and am 73 lbs overweight. Add to that he is being funded by a drug company to conduct studies on the effects of drinking and HBP. And that drug company already has ads that say “take this pill and it will help you cutdown on your drinking and thus, lower your BP”.
To *SOME* that may be the reason for THEIR skepticism about “Climate Change”
Lack of trust.
Adam
August 8th, 2012
4:26 pm
TBG: Ok, then let me update. It is like you went to hundreds of doctors and all but 2 of them said that drinking was the cause.
Adam
August 8th, 2012
4:30 pm
And yes, Thulsa, we DO know the degree. At least, the scientists do. And the answer is “Humans are mostly the cause.” That’s Mostly, with a capital M. Your need for a settled number is nonsense, because that would be like needing PI calculated out to 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 digits. We don’t need the EXACT number when we can see pretty clearly that man is responsible for a good majority of the effect. Just like we don’t need 61 votes in the Senate once we have 60.
And maybe I am not explaining myself well, but the point is this:
-Man is causing the CO2 ramp up.
-The CO2 ramp up is the correlation, especially after controlling for other known causes of CO2 in the atmosphere such as volcanoes and solar activity (which is why we know it correlates best despite the historical data showing the occasional blip as you tried to say disproves it)
-The degree to which man is responsible has been determined to be “almost entirely” the cause.
Now put that in your pipe and smoke it for your daily carbon footprint contribution
Vast Right Wing Conspiracy
August 8th, 2012
5:00 pm
I knew you could not take too long after you got back before you hit it again. Jay, you worry needlessly because you have no understanding of statistics. Trust me, your “Chicken Little” routine is unwarranted.
It does, however, provide a lot of entertainment. Kind of like a “Three Stooges” and “Keystone Kops” cartoon all rolled into one. Please, Jay, for your sake, give this a rest. Write about the moon being made out of green cheese, or something like that with a much greater possibility of being the truth.
G Mare
August 8th, 2012
5:19 pm
Vast@5:00, “TRUST ME.”. Riiight!
JKL2
August 8th, 2012
6:09 pm
Jay- I have no illusion that such data will have any effect, largely because accepting the reality of man-driven climate change means accepting a self-imposed banishment from the conservative tribe.
Good to Bush is causing all those solar flares. The evil of that man knows no bounds…
Joel Edge
August 9th, 2012
6:25 am
“for the historical record if nothing else.”
Duly noted. Future generations will need something to laugh about.
Best, Dan
August 9th, 2012
12:02 pm
There’s one point that cant be argued – every citizen Republican or Democrat, man or woman, adult, child, plant or animal have there entitlements to creation…clean air, fresh water and uncontaminated food. A pollution and poison based economy whether directly responsible for Global Warming or not infringes on my rights and the rights of my family. The data s in, we’re all guilty – whats the business case for being the last generation on earth.
Best,
Dan
Daedalus
August 9th, 2012
2:19 pm
Well there are three kinds of untruths: Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.
Clearly extrinsic evidence that is the hottest year on record has nothing do to with whether rising CO2 levels has anything to do with Climate Change/Global Warming. After all, we all know that human activities cannot impact the environment in such a way, except maybe acid rain, water pollution, air pollution, groundwater pollution, but wait, that’s just the gubmint talking.
OK, none of that stuff was caused by human activities either. Let’s abolish NOAA, the EPA, Fish and Wildlfe, etc., because stuff happens and we cannot do anything about it anyway.
Adam
August 10th, 2012
9:25 am
because stuff happens and we cannot do anything about it anyway.
This seems to be an argument I am hearing a lot lately as a justification for basically dismantling a law-based society by removing all laws and organizations tasked with enforcing any rules or laws.
Mamouian
August 10th, 2012
10:57 am
Yeah, the arctic sea ice is going away. I think liberals believe exactly what the media tells them. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png