Can the price of gasoline be affected by the amount of oil produced here in the United States? Experts say no; logic says no; free market economics say no.
Now, thanks to some work by the Associated Press, we can now say that the historical data also say no.
The AP went back and looked at domestic oil production numbers and the cost of unleaded gasoline since 1976, which is as far back as records go documenting the cost of unleaded gasoline. It then asked several top statisticians whether they could find any correlation between the two.
In other words, is there any evidence whatsoever that domestic oil production affects the price of gasoline?
A statistical analysis of 36 years of monthly, inflation-adjusted gasoline prices and U.S. domestic oil production by The Associated Press shows no statistical correlation between how much oil comes out of U.S. wells and the price at the pump.
For example, beginning in 1986, oil production in this country began a long,