Imagine the aftermath of a Romney loss in Michigan
If Mitt Romney loses Michigan tonight — and the polls say that’s possible — you’re gonna see some stuff happen. The Republican Party is gonna look like the scene in “Titanic” when people finally begin to understand: This unsinkable sucker could really go down.
The band warms up the crowd for Mitt Romney's Michigan concession speech?
Such a defeat would not end Romney’s campaign — he has too many resources and too much organization to simply sink beneath the waters. But a loss in his native state would confirm to many of his fellow Republicans that an alternative must be found, and quickly. For Romney, the setback would be significant because it would damage the single most important asset that he possesses, which is credibility. Mr. Inevitable would look more and more like Mr. Inevitable Loser.
But what alternatives do the Republicans have? Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are far more problematic than Romney. I’m beginning to hear strange noises out of Florida, as if Jeb Bush were starting to stir a bit, but that’s still a longshot. On the other hand, if Romney loses Michigan, those noises may increase in volume pretty quickly.
Truthfully, though, it’s still hard to envision the mechanism by which a late entry seizes control of the race. Those who have been campaigning all along aren’t going to meekly set aside their ambitions and allow some white knight to ride in and seize the prize.
And should Romney win in Michigan? Victory won’t do a lot for him, because it’s a state that he’s supposed to win pretty handily, against a set of opponents whom he ought to thrash. In college basketball terms, you don’t get many RPI points for beating weak opponents on your home court. A Romney win in Michigan, twinned with an expected win in Arizona, would merely extend the party’s current unsettled state of affairs.
– Jay Bookman
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545 comments Add your comment
Finn McCool (Class Warfare = Stopping Rich People from TAKING MORE of OUR MONEY)
February 28th, 2012
1:14 pm
The president’s odds of re-election jumped to above 60 percent in the days after Santorum’s big wins on February 7, according to prediction markets. Since then they have steadily crept up; by contrast, Obama spent the fall and early winter hovering around 50 percent.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/republican-nomination-extends-march-candidates-face-weakening-odds-152347629.html
mwuahahahahahahahahaha
Finn McCool (Class Warfare = Stopping Rich People from TAKING MORE of OUR MONEY)
February 28th, 2012
1:16 pm
jm is on the paranoia train. Stock up your bomb shelter NOW!
Donna P.
February 28th, 2012
1:24 pm
As a Republican voter, the field to chose from this year sucks. I really don’t care if Obama wins re-election. I will still have a job and life will go on. I do feel sorry for those out of work; they will remain out of work until 2016. We must hold the House and possibly take the Senate! I’m hoping Romney will not run for President anymore after this year.
YOUR party SUCKS! But MINE is GRRRRRREAT! (formerly That Black Guy)
February 28th, 2012
1:26 pm
Jay, what do you think about this?
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/27/business/media/white-house-uses-espionage-act-to-pursue-leak-cases-media-equation.html?_r=3&ref=todayspaper
jm
February 28th, 2012
1:28 pm
donna
Romney would make a great president
Joe Hussein Mama
February 28th, 2012
1:30 pm
Posting again; well worth a bookmark IMO. I’ve been following this site since the 2004 election.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Click on the “Map algorithm explained” link just below the legend to see how they come to their conclusions. They update frequently, they use polls from most major polling groups (yes, Rasmussen is included) and they usually follow Senate and House races as well as Election Day gets closer.
If you don’t like this site, check out the guy’s FAQ. He includes a link to a competing site that perhaps you might like better.
Donna P.
February 28th, 2012
1:31 pm
Jm; Romney would make a great Democratic President. He is not a Republican.
Jm
February 28th, 2012
1:36 pm
Donna
If you think Obama is better than Romney, I’m not sure you’re a republican
And if you dint vote for Romney, you might as well vote for Obama
Romney and Obama are substantively miles apart
BigD
February 28th, 2012
1:37 pm
I laugh every time I read the crap that you Liberals line up every morning have Jay spoon feed you….whistling through the grave yard.
Joe Hussein Mama
February 28th, 2012
1:39 pm
Jm — “If you think Obama is better than Romney, I’m not sure you’re a republican”
Careful there, Cowboy. It’s crap like you’re talking right now that ran me out of the GOP.
I’d say you’re going to need every vote and every donation dollar you can get if you plan to win in November.
Of course, if you *want* to be nasty to people who are already in your corner, knock yourself out. There are plenty of ex-Republicans like me who won’t be voting for the GOP nominee this fall.
Let's not count our chickens, K?
February 28th, 2012
1:43 pm
Finn – as much as I want President Obama to be reelected, and as much as I see ‘positive trends,’ I won’t let myself get complacent. Just yesterday Gallup released a poll showing Sticky Icky Santorum (aka, the little sweater vest that could) ahead of the President. Granted, it’s an outlier, and a puzzling one at that, but still.
Let’s let the Grand Old Regressive party continue to keep tripping all over themselves, and let’s help them along in their delusions by advancing the “Obama is beatable” them. K?
Thanks!
Paul
February 28th, 2012
1:44 pm
Donna P.
“Romney would make a great Democratic President. He is not a Republican.”
Why not? Is there some sort of litmus test for what constitutes a Republican?
If there is, would Reagan qualify as a Republican, if one looks at his record on tax increases, deficit spending and lack of church attendance?
“”I think every good Christian ought to kick (Rev) Falwell (cofounder of the Moral Majority) right in the ass.’
Barry Goldwater
Jm
February 28th, 2012
1:44 pm
Joe
Shes already said shes not voting
Helping her see the error in her logic is the goal
I get it if an indie goes for Obama
I have no ability to see why a republican would choose Obama over Romney
Let's not count our chickens, K?
February 28th, 2012
1:44 pm
oops. that was supposed to conclude with “…’Obama is beatable’ theme…”
Recon 0311 2533
February 28th, 2012
1:46 pm
Well I see Jay’s still playing that same fantasy blog topic. Okay some reality, RCP has Obama down in negative territory again, so his little bump in the polls hasn’t lasted very long. Gallup: down 7pts. and Rasmussen down 5pts.
Jm
February 28th, 2012
1:46 pm
Paul
I thought Thomas Jefferson said that
Let's not count our chickens, K?
February 28th, 2012
1:47 pm
@Jm re: “I have no ability to see why a republican would choose Obama over Romney.”
I’m not in the least bit surprised you lack ability, generally, and that ability, specifically. Since I’m in a kind and generous mood today, I’ll help you along: President Obama is a brilliant, decent and principled man. Romney said and did anything to make $$, and will say and do anything to get elected; clearly, he was successful as regards the former.
Jm
February 28th, 2012
1:56 pm
Recon
Jay only covers the ups, never the downs
getalife
February 28th, 2012
1:56 pm
If you are on statins, the FDA slapped a warning on them today.
sanitarium wants the dem votes.
Adam
February 28th, 2012
1:57 pm
Jay only covers the ups, never the downs
Are you suggesting maybe that there should be, I don’t know, a LAW against this or something?
Jm
February 28th, 2012
1:57 pm
“Romney said and did anything to make $$,”
Not a factual statement
Let's not count our chickens, K?
February 28th, 2012
1:59 pm
@JM re: “Not a factual statement.”
You don’t know anything about private equity, now do you? (Hint: that’s rhetorical question.)
Joe Hussein Mama
February 28th, 2012
1:59 pm
Jm — “Shes already said shes not voting”
I must have missed that. Timestamp, please?
“Helping her see the error in her logic is the goal”
She’s also said that the GOP field sucks. I agree with that logic; if I were still voting GOP, I’d have a hard time choosing the Candidate of Least Suck from the field.
“I get it if an indie goes for Obama”
Excellent. Then you will understand when your side loses in November.
“I have no ability to see why a republican would choose Obama over Romney”
She didn’t say she would, just that Obama isn’t the disaster y’all seem to think he is, and that Romney’s not enough of a Republican to deserve her vote.
Jm
February 28th, 2012
2:00 pm
Adam, clearly you have a serious reading problem
The tutor who works with my 12 month niece can help you
Recon 0311 2533
February 28th, 2012
2:01 pm
Jm,
Not many ups for the prez, so Jays blog bloggers are treated to “Imagine This” topics. Oh well maybe better than cut and paste charts that are barely readable.
Tealiban Party
February 28th, 2012
2:02 pm
Thulsa Doom
February 28th, 2012
8:59 am
“George W. Bush will probably go down in history as our worst President”
Thank God you just woke up from that coma that you’ve been in for the last 3 years. You woke up to a pretty bad situation with the debtload greater, paltry economic growth, and unemployment substantially worse than under W….
Yeah, I sure do miss the days of NEGATIVE 8.2% GDP contraction. The 2.4% GDP GROWTH under Obama is just so awful….. (roll eyes).
getalife
February 28th, 2012
2:05 pm
The gop meeting after this loss to reform their primary will be fun to watch.
Their primary is just like the way they govern.
A disaster waiting to happen.
Paul
February 28th, 2012
2:05 pm
Jm
Him, too.
yuzeyurbrane
February 28th, 2012
2:08 pm
Jay, what do you think of David Brooks analysis today? Maybe Santorum should be nominated so the right-wing nuts can be beaten so badly the GOP purges itself of them and political discourse returns to the middle?
Adam
February 28th, 2012
2:10 pm
Maybe Santorum should be nominated so the right-wing nuts can be beaten so badly the GOP purges itself of them and political discourse returns to the middle?
That is how I feel about it. This is what I would LOVE to have happen. So we can finally get some sanity back.
Jm
February 28th, 2012
2:11 pm
“You don’t know anything about private equity, now do you?”
Other than being in the business, no I guess I don’t.
(ir)Rational
February 28th, 2012
2:12 pm
Sheets.
Let's not count our chickens, K?
February 28th, 2012
2:13 pm
@JM re: “Other than being in the business, no I guess I don’t.” Yes, and I’m Tiger Woods.
Recon 0311 2533
February 28th, 2012
2:15 pm
The libs are pulling for Santorum because Romney would stand a very good chance of handing Obama his eviction notice telling him to vacate the White House early next year.
Jm
February 28th, 2012
2:16 pm
“So we can finally get some sanity back.”
Not gonna happen pal. Generically speaking, and as long as Obama is potus.
Let's not count our chickens, K?
February 28th, 2012
2:18 pm
@ Recon – actually, no, the libs are pulling for Romney. See, Romney is so damaged, he can’t beat the President. Sticky Icky Santorum also can’t beat the President, but Sticky Icky is more likely to bring out conservative wackjobs, which in turn will make it less likely that the Dems regain a supermajority in the Senate and a majority in the House. With Mittens, however, conservative wackjobs stay home, thereby increasing odds of Democrat control of all 3 houses.
How do you like them apples?
yuzeyurbrane
February 28th, 2012
2:23 pm
Recon, of course Romney is a real threat to beat Obama. But that isn’t only reason I think Santorum would be better pick. See my prior blog. It might actually help the GOP and the country in the long run.
Jm
February 28th, 2012
2:27 pm
K. 6 years in PE
Jm
February 28th, 2012
2:29 pm
Murph
Yep that’s what it says
Only question is if Americans want that kind of social engineering or not
They seem to prefer the republican position frankly
Let's not count our chickens, K?
February 28th, 2012
2:33 pm
Sure. Un-huh.
timbo
February 28th, 2012
3:05 pm
Just think if this were a Republican in office right now. The media and Jay would be all over the Republicans. The economy wasn’t even close to this bad, and gas prices were half what they are now when the media and Jay scorched Republicans. Now that Barry is in office, everything is okay fine. Absolutely amazing.
Adam
February 28th, 2012
3:47 pm
Jm: Not gonna happen pal. Generically speaking, and as long as Obama is potus.
Thank you for confirming that you are deciding to deliberately stay insane while a Democrat is President.
philosopher
February 28th, 2012
4:23 pm
Dow closes above 13,000 for first time since 2008
http://click.subscriptions.ajc.com/?qs=5600e06465b31153b17bad8b7e57d093adc3905937714afa503465c28d6d1f73
Somebody’s gonna be very, very unhappy….
If Liberals Hated America We'd Vote Republican
February 28th, 2012
5:38 pm
@Tealiban Party
February 28th, 2012
2:02 pm
Thulsa Doom
February 28th, 2012
8:59 am
Yeah, I sure do miss the days of NEGATIVE 8.2% GDP contraction. The 2.4% GDP GROWTH under Obama is just so awful….. (roll eyes).
****************************************************************************************************
TEA PARTY?
WHITE WHINE IS MORE LIKE IT.
Joel Edge
February 29th, 2012
5:22 am
Thank you for your concern, Jay.